Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies (Rentec) 13F Filing: Q4 2008

This is the 4th Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings preface.

Next up is Jim Simons' Renaissance Technologies, ranked 4th in Alpha's 2008 hedge fund rankings. Rentec, as they are commonly known, was started by Simons in 1982 and has around $25 billion in assets total. They employ mathematical and statistical methods to execute their investments and trades. Their flagship $7 billion Medallion fund has averaged annual returns around 35%. Unlike most hedge funds which charge a flat 2% management fee on assets and then a 20% performance fee, Medallion charges a 5% management fee and a performance fee > 40%. The fees are high, but after seeing their returns, one could argue it is easily worth it. Medallion finished up 80% for 2008, as noted in our hedge fund year end performance post. The bad news to anyone reading is that the fund is pretty much limited to only former and current Renaissance employees. Simons other funds, which are open to other investors, were both down in '08. In terms of recent performance, we saw that their Institutional Equities Fund was -4.61% for February and -8.84% for 2009 at that time, as mentioned in our January & February hedge fund performance post. Rentec is noted to be the most successful hedge fund in the industry, with returns eclipsing other legendary investors including Paul Tudor Jones, Bruce Kovner, and George Soros.

Jim Simons was recently listed on both Forbes' billionaire list and the list of the top 25 highest paid hedge fund managers of 2008. Obviously, he is a very accomplished man and his fund has put up impressive numbers. Mr. Simons previously testified before Congress with numerous other hedge fund managers and discouraged the SEC from making funds' short positions available to the public. For more on Simons & Renaissance, check out our post on hedge fund manager interviews.

Disclaimer: Do note that tracking Rentec through 13F filings is not beneficial due to the quant nature of their firm. We are tracking them because they are a popular, prominent fund with solid returns and many readers continually request it. While the majority of funds we cover are appropriate for tracking given their strategy and research methods, there is no way for us to know why Rentec holds a certain position. So, we are simply posting this up for fun. Use this information for entertainment purposes only. Again, they are mainly a quant firm and they trade every asset class under the sun. The majority of equity holdings you will see in their portfolio are most likely from their Institutional Equities Fund. Please keep this info in mind when viewing below.

The following were their long equity, note, and options holdings as of December 31st, 2008 as filed with the SEC. We have not detailed the changes to every single position in this update, but we have covered all the major moves. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted.


Some New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Monsanto (MON), General Electric (GE), Transocean (RIG), Conoco Phillips (COP), Altria (MO), Lorillard (LO), Kimberly Clark (KMB), Merrill Lynch (MER), BP (BP), Abbott Labs (ABT), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Verizon (VZ), Google (GOOG), General Mills (GIS), Texas Instruments (TXN), US Bancorp (USB), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Duke Energy (DUK), Dow Chemical (DOW), Dupont (DD), Panasonic (PC), American Express (AXP), Covidien (COV), Devon (DVN), Wachovia (WB), Public Storage (PSA), Joy Global (JOYG), Kellogg (K), L3 Communications (LLL)


Some Increased Positions (A few positions they already owned but added shares to)
Citigroup (C): Increased by 10,046%
McDonald's (MCD): Increased by 2,072%
Coca Cola (KO): Increased by 1,536%
Pfizer (PFE): Increased by 1,378%
Philip Morris (PM): Increased by 1,109%
Pepsico (PEP): Increased by 995%
HSBC (HBC): Increased by 722%
CSX Corp (CSX): Increased by 641%
Research in Motion (RIMM): Increased by 289%
AT&T (T): Increased by 218%
Family Dollar (FDO): Increased by 118%
Baxter (BAX): Increased by 111%
Union Pacific (UNP): Increased by 91%


Some Reduced Positions (Some positions they sold some shares of - note not all sales listed)
Amgen (AMGN): Reduced by 41%
Forest Labs (FRX): Reduced by 36%
Walmart (WMT): Reduced by 35%
Glaxosmithkline (GSK): Reduced by 29%
Linear (LLTC): Reduced by 26%
UST (UST): Reduced by 20%
Humana (HUM): Reduced by 19%


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Noble Energy (NBL), Polo Ralph Lauren (RL), SPX Corp (SPW), BJ Services (BJS), ITT Corp (ITT), Limited Brands (LTD), Travelers (TRV), Philadelphia Consolidated (PHLY), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Baker Hughes (BHI), Covance (CVD), Metlife (MET), Alcoa (AA), Assurant (AIZ), Tyco Electronics (TEL), Grey Wolf (GW), Equitable Resources (EQT), Halliburton (HAL), Avon (AVP), Praxair (PX), Honeywell (HON), Freeport McMoran (FCX). Inactives: Northwest Airlines, Activision (old shares), Ace, Matsushita, Applera, & Wrigley.


Top 15 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

  1. UST (UST): 1.31% of portfolio
  2. McDonalds (MCD): 0.91% of portfolio
  3. Coca Cola (KO): 0.8% of portfolio
  4. Monsanto (MON): 0.8% of portfolio
  5. Walmart (WMT): 0.7% of portfolio
  6. General Electric (GE): 0.7% of portfolio
  7. Amgen (AMGN): 0.66% of portfolio
  8. Baxter (BAX): 0.66% of portfolio
  9. Transocean (RIG): 0.64% of portfolio
  10. Research in Motion (RIMM): 0.63% of portfolio
  11. Linear (LLTC): 0.61% of portfolio
  12. Chunghwa Telecom (CHT): 0.58% of portfolio
  13. Eli Lilly (LLY): 0.57% of portfolio
  14. Philippine Long Distance (PHI): 0.57% of portfolio
  15. Pfizer (PFE): 0.56% of portfolio


Like we mentioned earlier, there is practically zero explanation for the rhyme or reason of any of their moves due to Rentec's quantitative nature. As you can see in the "increased" category, Renaissance ratcheted up their positions big time, many a time by over 500%. But, you also have to keep in mind that since they hold so many equities, those positions still aren't even over 0.75% of their overall portfolio. The only names that really rocketed up to the top of the portfolio were McDonald's, Coca Cola, Transocean, General Electric, and Monsanto. While many typical long/short equity funds we follow will have 4-8% of their portfolio in their top holding, Renaissance's top equity holding is only 1.3% of their overall portfolio. Assets from the collective long US equity, options, and note holdings were $38.1 billion last quarter and were $27.6 billion this quarter. This is just one of many funds in our hedge fund portfolio tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds. We've already covered:



We cover a new hedge fund each day and you can see the complete list of hedge fund portfolios here.


Are Newspapers a Dying Industry?

The recent news out of Sun-Times Media adds yet another name to the list of pre-bankruptcy/bankrupt newspaper chains. Not only are newspapers seeing decreased advertising revenue and decreased circulation, but many are trying to stave off crushing debt loads. Even newspapers who have relatively successfully navigated things thus far are showing some signs of weakness. The Wall Street Journal has benefited by providing focused, niche content and by recognizing the digital shift. As such, they began to provide digital content and immediately started monetizing it. But, although they've had relative success there, they are still fighting for readers as they offer a 75% discount. Undoubtedly, something will have to give and certain names in the industry will have to start selling off assets, go private, or morph/evolve into a non-profit or new media company.

If you have been following our twitter updates, you would have seen us shorting New York Times (NYT) back at $7.70 and covering down at $4. Currently, we are not involved and figured it would be prudent to survey the macro landscape as it relates to the industry. Then, in a future post, we'll survey the NYT in particular (which we've highlighted before due to the ownership presence of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners and Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim). We want to focus on them due to the fact that their current status is very representative of many other industry players. Their battle with monetization and various business plans is well documented so far. Undoubtedly, something will have to give and certain names in the industry will have to start selling off assets, go private, or morph/evolve into a non-profit or new media company.

The industry itself is facing a few key issues including crushing debtloads, decreasing revenues/circulation/readership, a secular shift, and a battle with their kryptonite: monetization. We want to start by pointing out the excellent article out of Slate last week on this very topic. Basically, Daniel Gross lays out the facts that the newspapers filing for bankruptcy are ones that have been stockpiled with debt and/or idiotic management decisions. He highlights great points that many have analysts have brushed aside. But, he also admits that some industry players (mainly smaller ones) are in trouble. The core of the problem here is the debtload many newspapers face. It doesn't help that they've been hit with the perfect storm of debt loads, decreasing revenues, decreasing circulation/readership, and the worst economic situation since the great depression. We're in the eye of the storm and this hurricane has simply taken their problems and magnified them tenfold.

The problem though, is what will they do when things stabilize and return to 'normal'? If the economy were to recover tomorrow, then advertising revenues would pick back up (which would help their cash cushion and delay their debt-duel a little bit longer). But, they still have the problem of decreasing circulation and/or readership. Readers are trading physical papers in favor of online media. And, if this truly is a secular trend, then newspapers have a much larger problem at hand. How can they monetize things besides advertising? The New York Times' struggle is the perfect example of this very problem. Do they charge for some content? All content? Who knows? It's a tough sell in an environment where information becomes freer by the day.

Newspapers are fighting three concurrent battles that are all a function of each other. They can't truly fix their business woes until they find a way to increase revenues and monetize their digital content. Cash infusions are merely a quick fix and most likely do not solve their long-term problems. Newspapers are like drug addicts because that quick ‘hit’ of cash feels good, but they are still left wanting and needing more. Assuming the trend plays out, more and more readers will shift to digital and they have to find a way to make money from that. This brings us to the second battle: monetization. This in and of itself will probably be the trickiest for them. They can shift with the trends and give readers what they want, but can they make money off of it? The answer thus far is: not really. We'll simply have to wait and watch this giant tug of war of trial and error before we can gain more insight. Lastly, you have the battle with readership and circulation. Circulation for the most part is down, and readers/subscribers of print versions are down. To compensate for this, they've ramped up their digital content, staying in line with the trend. But, this reverts back to their problem of truly monetizing the digital content through various (thus far ineffective) business models. Not to mention, they are trying to do so in an modern-day world where information is everywhere and more often than not, it is free.

The uphill battle they face is depicted (ironically enough) by the NYT. Below, you'll see their illustration of changes in circulation and revenues across the country:

(click to enlarge)


Go here if the graphic is still too small to read after enlarging. Obviously, the industry has a lot of headwinds and the fact that stubborn majority owners control many of them doesn't seem to be helping things (if you're a shareholder). While companies like the NYT have made strides in raising cash to fight off near term maturities, they are seemingly just drawing out the inevitable battle with their debt destiny.

Simply put, it is way too early to gauge if newspapers are a dying industry. And, those attempting to proclaim their death prematurely are oblivious to the daily evolution of all forms of media. We do not think that newspapers as an entire industry will succumb to this economic quicksand. Don't get us wrong though, we're bearish on the industry longer-term and feel they are battling a rising secular trend without a concrete gameplan. As many traders say, "The trend is your friend." Until it's not.

That's the wrench in this whole equation: trends and innovation. Newspaper companies could come out tomorrow and completely revolutionize and revitalize readership and their streams of income with some new amazing "thing" that no one could have ever predicted. It’s not likely, but stranger things have happened. We would be inclined to present an alternative outcome for the industry. While the physical newspaper itself may in turn slowly die, the industry as a whole will be forced to morph and evolve into a new means of distribution, a new medium/platform, and a new business model. If they don't, and the debt finally crushes them, then they'll die. That's the catch. Everyone is on the lookout for the death of the industry, when they instead should be focusing on who will morph and evolve, and who won't. There will be survivors, but they most likely won't be a 'newspaper' in the true sense of the word.

With this we arrive at no firm conclusions and a lot of "we'll wait and see." This is mainly because media in and of itself is constantly evolving and changing. The ball is in their court and we have to wait for their move before declaring death to their industry. We like to look at it as more of an evolution and metamorphosis with hints of Darwinism. The physical newspaper itself may die, but the industry players will be forced to morph into some new iteration of a media player. We've already begun to see the big push in terms of digital content. But, what's next? Those who figure it out will survive. In the end, it's all about the numbers: their debtload, the number of readers, and how much revenue they can generate. However, one cannot overlook the non-numerical input: secular shifts & trends. And, right now, the trend is most definitely not their friend.


Meredith Whitney's Latest Comments

Here's the latest from noted banking analyst Meredith Whitney, who appeared on CNBC late yesterday if you missed it:














Also, due to its tie-in with Whitney's thoughts, make sure you also check out our piece on consumer credit.


Monday, April 6, 2009

Touradji Capital Management (Paul Touradji) 13F Filing Q4 2008

This is the 4th Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings preface.

Next up is Touradji Capital ran by Paul Touradji. Touradji is one of many well-known 'Tiger Cubs' who started their own firms after leaving Julian Robertson's Tiger Management. We've already covered many of the 'Tiger Cub' funds including Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Chase Coleman's Tiger Global, Chris Shumway's Shumway Capital Partners, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital. Taken from our post on 'Tiger Cub' biographies, "Paul Touradji is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Touradji Capital Management LP, a New York-based hedge fund specializing in fundamental research and active investment in commodities and related assets. The firm manages approximately $3.5 billion and invests in both the public and private markets. Mr. Touradji has well over a decade of experience investing in the commodity, equity, and macro markets. Mr. Touradji began his commodities career at Tiger Management in the mid '90s, where he managed the commodities team; it was at Tiger that he developed his fundamental approach to analysis and investment in commodities. Prior to Tiger, Mr. Touradji’s specialty was quantitative arbitrage, principally with O’Connor Partners. Mr. Touradji is a 1993 graduate of the McIntire School of Commerce at the University of Virginia and a Certified Financial Analyst."

Towards the end of last year
at a 'Tiger Cub' hedge fund manager panel, Touradji advocated shorting Copper as the world deleverages and the velocity of money drops, and that thesis played out just as predicted. It would be interesting to get his updated take on copper now that it has rallied back a little bit. We just recently noticed that Touradji was one of the Top 25 highest paid hedge fund managers in 2008, coming in at number 16. Also, back in January we mentioned that Touradji was starting an additional fund. Please note that Touradji specializes in commodities and those holdings are not reported in 13F filings. But, he still has some equity positions and we check in on those each quarter. We keep tabs on him for his Tiger background, his solid overall performance, and to see if he is playing any investment themes. But, we want to make sure everyone realizes that he is different than the typical hedge funds we cover and he has limited equity exposure.

The following were their long equity, note, and options holdings as of December 31st, 2008 as filed with the SEC. We have not detailed the changes to every single position in this update, but we have covered all the major moves. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted.


Some New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
General Electric (GE)
Jacobs Engineering (JEC)
Gushan (GU)


Some Increased Positions (A few positions they already owned but added shares to)
Sandridge Energy (SD): Increased by 291%


Some Reduced Positions (Some positions they sold some shares of - note not all sales listed)
Encore Acquisition (EAC): Reduced position by 50%
Chesapeake (CHK): Reduced position by 48.8%
McDermott (MDR): Reduced position by 39.7%
Whiting Petroleum (WLL): Reduced position by 30%
Delta Petroleum (DPTR): Reduced position by 27.5%
Baker Hughes (BHI): Reduced position by 5.4%


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Spdr S&P500 (SPY)
Hornbeck Offshore (HOS)
Cano Petroleum (CFW)
Frontier Oil (FTO)
Tesoro (TSO)
BMB Munai (KAZ)
Storm Cat (SCU)
Mosaic (MOS)
Continental Resources (CLR)
Steel Dynamics (STLD)
Nucor (NUE)
Devon Energy (DVN)
Terra Industries (TRA)
XTO Energy (XTO)
Transocean (RIG)
Select Sector Energy (XLE)
Hess (HES)


Top 15 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

  1. General Electric (GE): 51.5% of portfolio
  2. Petrohawk (HK): 12.64% of portfolio
  3. Baker Hughes (BHI): 5.8% of portfolio
  4. Jacobs Engineering (JEC): 5.73% of portfolio
  5. Comstock Resources (CRK): 3.68% of portfolio
  6. Sandridge Energy (SD): 3.6% of portfolio
  7. Delta Petroleum (DPTR): 2.56% of portfolio
  8. Range Resources (RRC): 1.5% of portfolio
  9. McDermott (MDR): 1.2% of portfolio
  10. Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 1.2% of portfolio
  11. Apache (APA): 1.1% of portfolio
  12. Anadarko Petroleum (APC): 1.1% of portfolio
  13. Talisman Energy (TLM): 1% of portfolio
  14. Noble Energy (NBL): 1% of portfolio
  15. CVR Energy (CVI): 0.93% of portfolio


As we mentioned above, please again note that Touradji has very limited equity exposure and is primarily in commodities and other markets. We track him to monitor any themes he may be playing and from his holdings it looks like he likes natural gas a little bit via Petrohawk and Chesapeake. They also boosted their stake in Sandridge pretty substantially. But, by far the most notable move in their portfolio was the addition of General Electric. They started it as a new position and brought it up to over 50% of their portfolio, which is a very peculiar thing to see (even for a fund that isn't usually in equities). We'll have to see if this was merely a trade or something more. It's very rare to see funds with such a large concentration of their assets in one equity like this. Assets from the collective long US equity, options, and note holdings were $150 million last quarter and were $146 million this quarter. Again, note that that this $146 million is only one small fraction of his overall assets under management. Lastly, we wanted to point out that Touradji recently sent out an investor letter regarding the illiquid portion of their portfolio. This is just one of many funds in our hedge fund portfolio tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds.

We've already covered:


We cover a new hedge fund each day and you can see the complete list of hedge fund portfolios here.


Seth Klarman's Baupost Group Increases RHI Entertainment (RHIE) Stake

Seth Klarman's Baupost group has filed an amended 13D and Form 4 on their position in RHI Entertainment (RHIE) due to activity on April 1, 2009. In the filings, we learn that Klarman has increased his stake in RHIE and he now owns 36.29%. They show ownership of 4,900,551 shares and as per the Form 4, have added 437,017 new shares at a price of $1.19 on March 30th, 2009. Klarman's stake in RHI is activist (hence the 13D rather than 13G) and they will undoubtedly chat with management about strategic direction and all that good activist stuff. As we've covered previously, Klarman has been adding to his RHIE position over time. In terms of other Baupost positions, Klarman has also been adjusting other names in his portfolio as well. You can view all of Baupost's holdings here. It will be interesting to see what Klarman has lined up with this massive RHIE stake.

In terms of background on Baupost and Klarman for those not familiar: Klarman received his MBA from Harvard Business School and started working at Baupost at age 25. Over the past 25 years, Baupost has seen an annual compound return of 20% and is ranked 49th in Alpha's hedge fund rankings. Klarman has always considered himself a value investor and has been patient through the market turmoil. The past few years they have had nearly half their $14 billion in assets in cash. But, with turmoil comes opportunity. And, as such, Baupost's cash has been gradually deployed by Klarman and Baupost's 100 employees, leaving them with around a fourth of assets left in cash. Klarman's investment process is detailed in his book Margin of Safety. In it, he lays out a "how-to" on risk-averse value investing. The book is no longer actively printed and is very hard to find. His take on recent market action can be viewed in his interview with Harvard Business School and his thoughts from Value Investor Insight.

Taken from Google Finance,

RHI Entertainment, Inc. "develops, produces and distributes new made-for-television movies, mini-series and other television programming worldwide. The Company also selectively produces new episodic series programming for television."


Friday, April 3, 2009

Alphaclone: The Ultimate Hedge Fund Portfolio Replication Tool

If you're going to read one Market Folly article for the rest of the year, then this is the one you'll want to read. Why, might you ask? Well, because we are about to introduce you to a tool that lines up directly with the content you see here at MarketFolly on a daily basis: hedge fund portfolios.

Today, we want to talk about Alphaclone (now 50% off), a web-based software tool developed by Maz Jadallah and Mebane Faber (of the World Beta blog). Quite literally, their tool allows you to create, customize, and replicate hedge fund portfolios. They have 200+ funds listed which can be turned into 15,000+ portfolio clones that are rebalanced quarterly and backtested on a daily basis. And, through a series of posts, we're going to show you what exactly you can do with this powerful tool.

We have been using Alphaclone for the past few weeks and are extremely impressed with vast array of information you can generate in a matter of minutes. You can create clones of individual managers (for instance: Greenlight Capital's portfolio) and can customize the existing portfolio or create your own based on criteria you define. Additionally, you can also create clone groups that create and track a portfolio of multiple managers. For instance, we just went through and for fun cloned a combination portfolio of 'activist' managers in Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, and Dan Loeb's Third Point. The combinations are endless.

You can also select various strategies and backtest their performance. You can take the top 10 holdings of an individual manager, the 'most popular' holdings from a group of managers, the 'best ideas' of managers, and many, many more options. You can also select a level of hedging (long only or hedged: 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%) to see how the portfolio performs when hedged. You can backtest tons of strategies and I've found myself sitting on Alphaclone for hours at a time creating unique hedge fund portfolios that outperform the S&P500 and various other indices.

Here are some of the highlights of Alphaclone, taken directly from their site:

  • View clone performance annually or across several date spans
  • Compare performance over time against several indexes
  • View current and past holdings for each clone
  • View recent trade activity for each clone
  • Download a spreadsheet for any clone to view monthly return streams
  • Hedge a clone portfolio and view back-tested performance
  • Customize clones by changing the number of holdings and/or rebalance method
  • Select which sectors and/or cap groups to include/exclude in the cloning process
  • Clone your own fund groups

As you can see, there is tons of useful information here. Whether you are a retail investor, money manager, or hedgie yourself, this cloning tool will simplify your investment process. If you like the hedge fund portfolio posts we bring to you on a daily basis, then you are absolutely going to love Alphaclone.

To give you a quick look, we'll show you what Alphaclone pulls up for Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway as an example. This first screenshot below shows the fund overview and highlights current portfolio holdings and sector breakdown.

(click to enlarge)


Directly below the Berkshire fund overview, we get to some of the good stuff: the clone generator. As you can see below, you have full control of what you wish to clone. You can select the number of top portfolio holdings to include (1,3,5,10, or 20) or you can shift to the "best ideas" tab, which opens up another set of criteria from which you can select the number of holdings. You can also select your rebalance method from holding all the positions equal-weighted, or you can "match the manager" where it will allocate the same percentage of the portfolio to each position as the hedge fund manager has deemed in their own portfolio. Next, you can also set hedging parameters. You can run long only, with a 25% hedge, a 50% hedge, a 75% hedge, or fully 100% hedged.

(click to enlarge)


Directly below the clone generator you can see the performance breakdown of your clone. You can select which indices to compare the clone to, and you can view the performance over a myriad of timeframes. Below the graph you have all kinds of useful information such as turnover, alpha, beta, and the correlation to the index. Additionally, Alphaclone shows you the volatility, sharpe ratio, and max drawdown comparatively as well. If you switch from the "1 year" to the "Annual data" tab, you can see performance data for the clone you've created against the index you've selected, broken down by each year. The historical information and backtesting is very comprehensive. And, you can export all of the info to Microsoft Excel, too.

(click to enlarge)


Lastly, at the very bottom of Berkshire's page, you'll see the current holdings as deemed by the portfolio clone you've selected. You can then see whether Berkshire has added to or reduced a specific position, and you can view their past portfolios as well.

(click to enlarge)


As you can see, there is an absolute wealth of information available, and that's only covering a single fund. Stay tuned, as next week we'll walk you through one of Alphaclone's pre-arranged fund groups: the Tiger Cub clone (a group of hedge funds that Market Folly readers should be very familiar with). This clone of all the ex-Tiger Management hedge funds has beaten the S&P500 by 15.5% annualized since 2000. And, we'll also be debuting a special Market Folly clone where we have hand selected a group of hedge funds for our own unique clone.

Head over and check out Alphaclone. It is easily one of the most useful financial market (and hedge fund specific) tools we've ever come across. And, they're running a special right now where you can get full membership for 50% off. They also have a basic membership setting and a free guest pass that has limited access. Once you get a taste of the possibilities, I guarantee you'll want to upgrade to full access. Full disclosure: I do receive a small commission if you sign-up, but I want to be explicitly clear that this is not some blind sales post; I approached them. I use Alphaclone on a daily basis and I think that fact speaks for itself. It has completely streamlined my hedge fund portfolio tracking/cloning process. If you try it out you'll see that it falls directly in line with what we do here at MF every single day. If you like MarketFolly, then you will love Alphaclone, it's as simple as that.

Update: Our 2nd article on Alphaclone is now up as well. This next article details how you can combine multiple hedge fund managers into one cohesive portfolio. In particular, it focuses on the Tiger Cub hedge fund managers. Enjoy the second post!


What We're Reading 4/3/2009

The Pleasure of Plastic (Visa) [Barron's] ~ highlighting this since so many funds we cover on the blog are long V

Meredith Whitney: Regional Banks are the Future. Also, see the NY Mag Profile on Whitney. [WSJ & NY Mag]

How Hedge Funds Will Survive [Slate]

Economic impact of increased US savings [McKinsey Quarterly]


Thursday, April 2, 2009

$1000 Prize: Guess the Nasdaq Close Challenge

*Update* Entry is now closed! Best of luck to everyone who entered!

Want to win $1000?

Yea, we thought so! Blain over at StockTradingToGo has started a great contest that we wanted to alert our readers to. It's basically a financial blog community battle royale and we think Market Folly readers can take home the big prize.

How do I enter?

The challenge: Write a comment below this post here on MarketFolly with your guess as to what you think the NASDAQ Composite Index will close at on Thursday, April 30th, 2009 (two decimals included: i.e. 1538.64).

It's as simple as that! Please note that you can ONLY post your guess once... you can't run around and enter on other blogs. So, represent Market Folly and post your guess below because its free to enter!


Entries must be posted in the comments section of this post on MarketFolly by Sunday, April 5th at 9pm EST... no exceptions!

Remember, do NOT post your guess anywhere else or you'll be disqualified. ONLY post your guess here at Market Folly. Winner with the correct guess of the Nasdaq close will get $1000 courtesy of Blain and his site.

Good luck everyone!


Chase Coleman's Tiger Global 13F Filing Q4 2008

This is the 4th Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings preface.

Next up is Chase Coleman's Tiger Global. Chase Coleman is yet another 'Tiger Cub,' or manager who learned their trade under the watch of Julian Robertson while at Tiger Management. We've already covered many of the 'Tiger Cub' funds' portfolios including Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Chris Shumway's Shumway Capital Partners, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital. And, late last year, many of these managers gathered at a 'Tiger Cub' hedge fund manager panel, where they laid out investment theses for the future.

Chase Coleman attended Williams College and started Tiger Global with the blessing of Julian Robertson after learning the ways of success at Tiger Management. His focus has always been on smaller cap names and on technology. Although, he has since expanded his horizons with time. In 2007, Tiger Global returned 70%, and from 2001-2007, Coleman bolstered an average return of 47%. In terms of activity, we just recently posted about Tiger's amended 13D filing on Longtop Financial Technologies (LFT).

The following were their long equity, note, and options holdings as of December 31st, 2008 as filed with the SEC. We have not detailed the changes to every single position in this update, but we have covered all the major moves. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted.


Some New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Microsoft (MSFT)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Walmart (WMT)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Discovery Communications (DISCK) C-shares
Google (GOOG)
Philip Morris (PM)
JA Solar (JASO)
Altria (MO)
Broadridge Financial (BR)
Diamonds (DIA)
Burlington Northern (BNI)
Discovery Communications (DISCA) A-shares
ishares Russell 2000 (IWM)
Yingli Green Energy (YGE)
ishares Russell 2000 Value (IWN)
ETrade (ETFC)
Hill Rom (HRC)
Ultrashort Real estate (SRS)


Some Increased Positions (A few positions they already owned but added shares to)
LDK Solar (LDK): Increased by 260%


Some Reduced Positions (Some positions they sold some shares of - note not all sales listed)
CSX (CSX): Reduced by 90%
Apple (AAPL): Reduced by 71%
Transdigm (TDG): Reduced by 39%
Lorillard (LO): Reduced by 25.9%
Mastercard (MA): Reduced by 20.2%
Visa (V): Reduced by 17.7%


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Washington Mutual (WAMUQ)
Vocus (VOCS)
Hovnanian (HOV)
China Security (CSR)
Fifth Street (FSC)
Thor (THO)
A-Power (APWR)
Ambac (ABK)
iStar Financial (SFI)
Emcore (EMKR)
Under Armour (UA)
Colonial Bancgroup (CNB)
Comerica (CMA)
Discovery Holding (DSY)
Regions Financial (RF)
Cavium Networks (CAVM)
Meredith (MDP)
True Religion (TRLG)
Service Corp (SCI)
Data Domain (DDUP)
First Horizon (FHN)
Marshal & Ilsley (MI)
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)
General Motors (GM)
Zions Bancorp (ZION)
Sina Corp (SINA)
Coach (COH)
SBA Communications (SBAC)
America Movil (AMX)
American Tower (AMT)


Top 15 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

  1. Microsoft (MSFT): 12.89% of portfolio
  2. SPDR S&P500 (SPY): 12.74% of portfolio
  3. Mastercard (MA): 10% of portfolio
  4. Lorillard (LO): 7.8% of portfolio
  5. Visa (V): 7.44% of portfolio
  6. Longtop Financial Technologies (LFT): 6.9% of portfolio
  7. Qualcomm (QCOM): 6.56% of portfolio
  8. Walmart (WMT): 5.76% of portfolio
  9. Transdigm (TDG): 3.71% of portfolio
  10. Mercadolibre (MELI): 3.2% of portfolio
  11. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 2.67% of portfolio
  12. Discovery Communications (DISCK): 2.38% of portfolio
  13. Google (GOOG): 1.64% of portfolio
  14. LDK Solar (LDK): 1.5% of portfolio
  15. Philip Morris International (PM): 1.48% of portfolio


Some of their biggest moves included sales of American Tower (AMT) and CSX (CSX). AMT was previously almost a 12% position for them, and no they no longer own it. While they still hold CSX, it was previously nearly a 12% position for them and now its only a 1% holding. The sale of AMT is even more-so interesting considering the fact that many other 'Tiger Cub' hedge funds owned/own AMT in size. We'll have to see what everyone else does with their position. In terms of additions, they added Microsoft (MSFT) as a new holding this past quarter and brought it all the way up to the top holding in the portfolio. Additionally, their large addition of SPY (S&P500 ETF) will have served them well, assumming they were still holding when the market started rallying significantly. Assets from the collective long US equity, options, and note holdings were $3.37 billion last quarter and were down to $2.2 billion this quarter. We cover a new hedge fund each day and you can see the complete list of hedge fund portfolios here.

We've already covered:


David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Files Amended 13D on MI Developments (MIM)

In an amended 13D filed with the SEC on March 31st, David Einhorn's hedge fund Greenlight Capital has disclosed a 12.3% ownership stake in MI Developments (MIM). The filing was made because on March 30th, 2009, "counsel to Greenlight Inc. submitted a complaint to the Ontario Securities Commission in an effort to ensure MID’s compliance with applicable minority protection regulations prior to entering into certain transactions with its subsidiary, Magna Entertainment Corporation (“MEC”)." As per the filing, the aggregate amount of shares beneficially owned is 5,655,235.

Since this is an amended 13D filing, indicating an activist stake, there's obviously lots going on behind the scenes in regards to Magna's auction plan and this filing references that. For the rest of Greenlight's portfolio, check out their most recent 13F filing, which details their positions as of December 31st, 2008. Since December, Greenlight has been pretty active, as we've also covered their latest new positions in Jones Apparel (JNY) & Harman (HAR), as well as their most recent 13G filing on Ticketmaster (TKTM). Additionally, we've noted in that Einhorn had picked up positions in gold (GLD) & gold miners (GDX) among other things, as noted in our Greenlight investor letter portfolio update.

Greenlight Capital is a $6 billion fund ran by David Einhorn that specializes in spin-offs and value investing and has seen annual returns of over 20%. Einhorn was -1.5% for February 2009 and sits at -0.03% for the year as of the end of February, as mentioned in our latest hedge fund performance numbers list. Einhorn's name has been popping up in the media a lot over the past year, as he talked about his well documented short position in Lehman Brothers (LEH). And, while that position paid off handsomely for him, it barely offset losses he experienced from other positions. He was caught in the massive Volkswagen short squeeze as he detailed in one of his latest investor letters. Einhorn has also recently detailed the saga between his fund and Allied Capital, a company he shorted, in his book Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: A Long Short Story. It gives you an inside perspective as to how Greenlight constructs and researches their investment theses and we highly recommend it. Greenlight approaches things by identifying mispricings in the markets and going from there.

Taken from Google Finance,

MI Developments is "a real estate operating company engaged in the ownership, management, leasing, development and acquisition of industrial and commercial real estate properties. The Company also own land for industrial development and own and acquire land that would be developed for mixed-use and residential projects."


Bill Luby's Rules of Trading

Over the past weekend, we read a great list of trading rules. The piece was by Bill Luby, the author of the VIX and More blog you'll find on our blogroll. We've been longtime readers of his blog and wanted to highlight it to MarketFolly readers who may not be aware.

Here's his list:

"As requested, here are ten overriding principles that have survived the past five years, through bull and bear markets:

  1. Always live to fight another day
  2. Entries must have a statistical edge
  3. Patience and discipline
  4. Be a jellyfish (swim with the current)
  5. Trade only liquid securities
  6. Focus on trying to capture the middle 80% of a move
  7. Know your exit points when you open a position (and stick to them!)
  8. When in doubt, reduce position size by 50%
  9. Limit losses to 2% of total equity for any single trade
  10. Start each day with a clean financial and emotional slate

The above list is relatively generic, but it helped provide me with a framework for organizing how I would approach trading as a business, what strategies I should adopt, how those strategies should be executed, and ultimately defining what success should look like.

Trading rules are vitally important - as is knowing when they should be broken. Even more important, I believe, is the process that one goes through in order to arrive at these rules and to make sure that as new market situations unfold and new blind spots are revealed, the rules and guidelines are enhanced to maximize the opportunity for the trader to continue to grow and develop."



Great stuff from Bill which I'm sure many of you all can implement into your own regimen. Make sure to check out his blog. And also, if you want another great set of trading rules, make sure to check out noted trader Dennis Gartman's Rules of Trading as well.


Maverick Capital Makes Silly Calculation Error

In a recently further amended 13G filing with the SEC, hedge fund Maverick Capital has updated their position in CSII. In a very silly mistake, Maverick has noted in the amended filing that they "inadvertently reported a miscalculation of the percentage" (of shares beneficially owned by the reporting persons). In the initial amended 13G filing, Maverick had a 16.2% stake in the company, which is a miscalculation. Now, as you below, they are listed as owning 15.3%.

So, their shares owned amount remains the same, but the percentage ownership stake (as calculated by them) has been adjusted to correct their error. Maverick now shows a 15.3% stake in Cardiovascular Systems (CSII) with 2,228,441 aggregate amount beneficially owned. This just goes to show that while many hedge funds have some very talented minds, everyone makes mistakes and is human.

This was a new position for them as of March 10th, as they did not own it when we covered their portfolio prior to that. Again, please note, Maverick has not altered the amount of shares they own. They are simply amending the filing to correct their calculation error.

If you're unfamiliar with Maverick, here's their background: Lee Ainslie started Maverick Capital back in 1993 with $38 million. Nowadays, the fund is worth $4 billion. Ainslie, like many of the other fund managers we've profiled, has a background rooted in learning from legendary great Julian Robertson at Tiger Management. These proteges (nicknamed 'Tiger Cubs') learned from the best and have had great success running their own funds. Some of the other Tiger Cubs include Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital and Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global. Maverick's strategy is straight up stock picking, both long and short. While they focus on both the long and short sides of the book, they do not employ pairs trades.

They try to hedge their positions like the true definition of a hedge fund. Maverick uses a value approach (obviously learned from Julian) and one of their most popular metrics is finding companies and comparing their enterprise value to sustainable free cash flow. Their Maverick Fund finished -26.2% for 2008, as noted in our year-end hedge fund performance numbers post.

Taken from Google Finance,

Cardiovascular Systems is "a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, in-licensing and commercializing anti-infective products. The Company had been developing its product candidate REP3123, an investigational narrow-spectrum antibacterial agent for the treatment of Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) bacteria and C. difficile infection and its other anti-infective programs based on its bacterial deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) replication inhibition technology."


Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Thomas Steyer's Farallon Capital 13F Filing Q4 2008

This is the 4th Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings preface.

Next up, we have Thomas Steyer's Farallon Capital Management. Steyer founded the firm in 1986 and still manages it today. Steyer graduated from Summa Cum Laude from Yale University and received his MBA from Stanford's Graduate School of Business. Prior to founding Farallon, Steyer worked as an analyst in Morgan Stanley's Mergers & Acquisitions department and then as an associate in the risk arbitrage department of Goldman Sachs. Being so well versed in the area of risk arbitrage, Steyer employs similar strategies at Farallon. Farallon invests in both public and private debt, equities, private investments, and real estate.

For the year of 2008, Farallon was ranked 3rd in Alpha's hedge fund rankings. Farallon is a $30 billion firm and had suspended withdrawals from their largest fund after receiving redemption requests for around 25% of the fund's capital. The fund won't be charging typical management and performance fees, but instead will charge accounting fees. Some of Farallon's portfolio performance is available here and you can also read one of their investor letters from last year. In terms of more recent activity, we had noted in early February that Farallon had sold out of numerous positions (via 13D and 13G filings). And, just yesterday, Farallon updated their positions in Freightcar America (RAIL) and Capitalsource (CSE).

The following were their long equity, note, and options holdings as of December 31st, 2008 as filed with the SEC. We have not detailed the changes to every single position in this update, but we have covered all the major moves. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted.


Some New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
n/a


Some Increased Positions (A few positions they already owned but added shares to)
Mastercard (MA): Increased by 64%
Fidelity National (FIS): Increased by 46.3%


Some Reduced Positions (Some positions they sold some shares of - note not all sales listed)
Sherwin Williams (SHW): Reduced by 85.5%
America Movil (AMX): Reduced by 67%
Oracle (ORCL): Reduced by 50.5%
Sandridge Energy (SD): Reduced by 48.8%
Burlington Northern (BNI): Reduced by 48%
Freightcar America (RAIL): Reduced by 24.7%
Cablevision (CVC): Reduced by 23.8%
Wendys Arbys (WEN): Reduced by 19.2%
Geoeye (GEOY): Reduced by 14.8%


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Sciele Pharma (inactive)
Sealy (ZZ)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
National City (NCC)
SBA Communications (SBAC)
Symantec (SYMC)
Barr Pharma (BRL)
Visa (V)
Liberty Media (LMDIA)
Alcon (ACL)
Sealed Air (SEE)
ishares Biotechnology (IBB) Puts
Verisign (VRSN)
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Netapp (NTAP)
Seagate (STX)
Amylin (AMLN)
Applied Biosystems (ABI)
Exco Resources (XCO)
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH)
Gilead Sciences (GILD)
Hospira (HSP)
Marriott International (MAR)
Apple (AAPL)
JB Hunt (JBHT)
Research in Motion (RIMM)
ishares Emerging Markets (EEM) Puts
Schlumberger (SLB)
Williams (WMB)
ishares Russell 2000 (IWM) Puts


Top 15 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

  1. Capitalsource (CSE): 22.42 % of portfolio
  2. Mastercard (MA): 21.33% of portfolio
  3. WendysArbys (WEN): 7.85% of portfolio
  4. Cablevision (CVC): 7.34% of portfolio
  5. Fidelity National (FIS): 5.73% of portfolio
  6. Burlington Northern (BNI): 4.2% of portfolio
  7. Sherwin Williams (SHW): 4.2% of portfolio
  8. Transdigm (TDG): 3.5% of portfolio
  9. Oracle (ORCL): 3.4% of portfolio
  10. America Movil (AMX): 3.2% of portfolio
  11. MI Developments (MIM): 3.17% of portfolio
  12. Knology (KNOL): 2.9% of portfolio
  13. Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK): 2.4% of portfolio
  14. Sandridge Energy (SD): 2.12% of portfolio
  15. Geoeye (GEOY): 1.96% of portfolio


Prevalent selling was the name of the game for Farallon, as assets listed in the 13F filing were way down this quarter. Previously, they held $3.69 billion and now show only $871 million worth of positions this quarter. This is a prevalent theme we've noted amongst hedge funds (and really everyone for that matter). Deleveraging was continuing last quarter and it will be interesting to see in the next round of 13F's if these founds were flocking back to equities, given the recent rally. The were only a few notable changes to their portfolio in terms of specific names. Their addition of more Mastercard (MA) shares, bringing it up to their 2nd largest holding was noticeable. Additionally, their large sales of Sherwin Williams (SHW) and America Movil (AMX) knocked it down on the list of their top holdings. This is just one of many funds in our hedge fund portfolio tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds.

We've already covered:

Check back daily as we'll cover a new fund each day.


Forbes' Billionaire List

Well, fresh off our posts on the Top25 highest paid hedge fund managers of 2008, as well as our biggest losers of 2008, we've stumbled upon Forbes' annual Billionaire List. The list encompasses all industries; but, as you can imagine, there are a lot of big hedge fund names on this list. Without further ado, the list of alternative managers on Forbes' list:

Rank Billionaire Firm Net Worth (billions)
29 George Soros Soros Fund Management $11
43 Carl Icahn Icahn Associates $9
55 James Simons Renaissance Technologies $8
76 John Paulson Paulson & Co. $6
87 Steven Cohen SAC Capital Advisors $5.5
164 Stanley Druckenmiller Duquesne Capital Management $3.5
164 Bruce Kovner Caxton Associates $3.5
164 Daniel Ziff Och-Ziff Capital Management $3.5
164 Dirk Ziff Och-Ziff Capital Management $3.5
164 Robert Ziff Och-Ziff Capital Management $3.5
205 Henry Kravis Kohlberg Kravis Roberts $3
205 Sam Zell Equity Group Investments $3
224 Paul Tudor Jones Tudor Investment Corp. $2.8
234 John Arnold Centaurus Energy Advisors $2.7
246 George Roberts Kohlberg Kravis Roberts $2.6
261 Ray Dalio Bridgewater Associates $2.5
261 Stephen Schwartzman The Blackstone Group $2.5
296 Philip Falcone Harbinger Capital Management $2.3
334 Tom Gores Platinum Equity $2
334 Edward Lampert ESL Investments $2
334 Daniel Och Och-Ziff Capital Management $2
334 T. Boone Pickens BP Capital $2
450 David Shaw D.E. Shaw Group $1.6
468 Louis Bacon Moore Capital Management $1.5
468 Israel Englander Millennium Partners $1.5
468 Kenneth Griffin Citadel Investment Group $1.5
522 William Conway The Carlyle Group $1.4
522 Daniel D'Aniello The Carlyle Group $1.4
522 Thomas Lee Lee Equity Partners $1.4
522 David Rubenstein The Carlyle Group $1.4
559 Alec Gores Gores Group $1.3
559 Raj Rajaratnam Galleon Group $1.3
559 Julian Robertson Tiger Management $1.3
559 Wilbur Ross WL Ross & Co. $1.3
601 Stephen Mandel Lone Pine Capital $1.2
601 David Tepper Appaloosa Management $1.2
647 Leon Black Apollo Management $1.1
647 John Henry John W. Henry & Co. $1.1
647 Marc Lasry Avenue Capital Management $1.1
701 David Bonderman TPG $1
701 Leon Cooperman Omega Advisors $1
701 James Dinan York Capital $1
701 Glenn Dubin Highbridge Capital Management $1
701 Theodore Forstmann Forstmann Little $1
701 Henry Swicea Highbridge Capital Management $1


As we said, some very familiar names fill up that list. To get a better idea as to how well their specific hedge funds are doing, check out Alpha's hedge fund rankings. And, for a list of those with converse fortunes, check out the recent list of 2008 hedge fund closures. In all, there are 793 richest men in the world, led by the #1 ranked Bill Gates (founder of Microsoft). In terms of the investment industry, 45 billionaires made the list.

Source: Forbes