Performance of Stocks Analyzed in Past Hedge Fund Wisdom Issues ~ market folly

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Performance of Stocks Analyzed in Past Hedge Fund Wisdom Issues

Most of you know that we publish a premium newsletter each quarter called Hedge Fund Wisdom (HFW).  It reveals the portfolios of 25 top hedge funds, provides hedgie consensus buy/sell lists, and features an equity analysis section written by hedge fund analysts.  (If you haven't seen it, check out a free sample here).

The brand new Q1 2013 issue of HFW will be released next week (May 21st), but in the mean time we wanted to update everyone on the performance of the stocks analyzed in past issues.  (After all, the newsletter has been running for almost 3 years now). 


Performance of Stocks From Past Issues

Each HFW issue features an equity analysis section and all numbers herein assume each stock was purchased when each issue of the newsletter was released and held until present day (5/15/13).  The numbers are pretty solid.  Here are some stats:

- 36 stocks profiled through all issues thus far

- 26 of these stocks have outperformed the S&P 500

- Average performance across all stocks profiled = +51.2%

- Average performance of S&P 500 = +28.5%

- Average outperformance over S&P 500 = +22.7%

- The 26 outperforming stocks beat the S&P by an average of +41.2%

- 4 stocks have more than doubled (+177%, +156%, +148%, +137%)

- 5 other stocks have each almost doubled (+97%, +92%, +91%, +87%, +84%)

- Only 10 stocks underperformed the S&P (and only 1 had a negative return: -3.1%)


Quarterly Breakdown of Performance 

Here's a quarterly breakdown starting with the most recent issue and working backwards:


Q4 2012 Issue: 3 out of 3 Outperformed (February 2013 - Present)


Spirit AeroSystems (SPR): +32.3%
Herbalife (HLF): +18.5%
Capital One (COF): +15.0%
S&P 500: +9.8%




Q3 2012 Issue: 2 out of 2 Outperformed (November 2012 - Present)
B/E Aerospace (BEAV): +45.4%
Ocwen Financial (OCN): +24.4%
S&P 500: +19.3%






Q2 2012 Issue: 1 out of 3 Outperformed (August 2012 - Present)
AIG (AIG): +35.9%
VeriSign (VRSN): +2.9%
Textron (TXT): +2.5%
S&P 500: +17.4%






Q1 2012 Issue: 1 out of 3 Outperformed (May 2012 - Present)
Equinix (EQIX): +47.7%
AutoZone (AZO): +15.8%
TempurPedic (TPX) Short: Shares -0.82%, so performance = +0.82%
S&P 500: +25.9%





Q4 2011 Issue: 2 out of 2 Outperformed (February 2012 - Present)
United Rentals (URI): +44.3%
Priceline.com (PCLN): +38.3%
S&P 500: +21.9%






Q3 2011 Issue: 3 out of 3 Outperformed (November 2011 - Present)
Netflix (NFLX): +177.4%
Visa (V): +91.0%
Lowe's (LOW): +87.1%
S&P 500: +31.3%






Q2 2011 Issue: 2 out of 3 Outperformed (August 2011 - Present)
AIG (AIG): +97.1%
Sensata Technologies (ST): +4.5%
First Solar (FSLR) Short: Shares -51.9%, so performance = +51.9%
S&P 500: +40.7%





Q1 2011 Issue: 3 out of 5 Outperformed (May 2011 - Present)
Expedia (EXPE): +156.7% (doesn't include TripAdvisor (TRIP) spin-off either)
Seagate Technology (STX): +136.9%
Yahoo (YHOO): +65.2%
MetLife (MET): -3.08%
Best Buy (BBY) Short: Shares -18.3%, so performance = +18.3%
S&P 500: +24.0%



Q4 2010 Issue: 4 out of 4 Outperformed (February 2011 - Present)
The Gap (GPS): +91.7%
Blackrock (BLK): +42.2%
Williams Companies (WMB): +36.1%
Coinstar (CSTR): +28.6%
S&P 500: +24.8%



Q3 2010 Issue: 4 out of 6 Outperformed (November 2010 - Present)
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI): +148.6%
Aon (AON): +61.8%
CareFusion (CFN):+45.8%
Express Scripts (ESRX): +17.5%
Cisco Systems (CSCO): +5.3%
Alcon (ACL): Bought out
S&P 500: +38.3%



Q2 2010 Issue: 1 out of 3 Outperformed (August 2010 - Present)
American Tower (AMT): +84.3%
Ensco (ESV): +40.9%
Citigroup (C): +32.3%
S&P 500: +53.7%




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Disclaimer (as noted at the bottom of this website and in the newsletters): This information is for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Use this information at your own risk. Market Folly and Hedge Fund Wisdom are not investment advisors of any kind, so do not consider anything on this page to be legal, tax, or investment advice. 


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