tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5975869446501122263.post5866027403773756759..comments2023-03-24T08:30:26.541-05:00Comments on market folly: Investment Scenarios: Inflation vs Deflationmarket follyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07691612544809256786noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5975869446501122263.post-16959149001984064672008-10-08T15:41:00.000-05:002008-10-08T15:41:00.000-05:00yea you bring up a good point, i think the market ...yea you bring up a good point, i think the market we are in now is unlike one we have ever seen due to so many external factors colliding at once.<BR/><BR/>gold, for instance, theoretically should be going up. it went up for a while based on the "fear" trade, but then receded, why? well its because of deleveraging and the redemption/liquidations faced by hedge funds. many funds used gold as a hedge and are unwinding their losing positions. with those positions, they are also unwinding their hedges, thus freeing up lots of gold or whatever they might have used to hedge with.<BR/><BR/>i think a lot of it is just forced selling and it is contributing to the market selloff more than people think. i discussed that in more recent posts about deleveraging and hedge fund redemptions, etc.<BR/><BR/>volatility throws a kink in any laid out plan though, that's for sure.market follyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07691612544809256786noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5975869446501122263.post-19573402530697842222008-10-08T15:31:00.000-05:002008-10-08T15:31:00.000-05:00I saw you post at stock trading to go and figure I...I saw you post at stock trading to go and figure I would have a look. <BR/><BR/>I think the only problem with your thesis is that nothing is working right now. That makes it tough, for me, to know what the best strategy is or if your arguments hold.<BR/> <BR/>Is it possible that the market is sniffing out deflation? I have my suspicions. If this recession is as bad as I believe it is, inflation won't be our problem.<BR/><BR/>Hedging now is just impossible to figure out:<BR/><BR/>Look at gold. By any measure it should be $2,500 an oz. <BR/><BR/>Look at oil - if inflation is here oil certainly wouldn't have hedged you. Today's close $88.30<BR/><BR/>You could also move out of the US Dollar, but where do you go? Every thing else is a fiat currency as well. Euro? Yen? All garbage.<BR/><BR/>I think we are in a transitional period and until we see certain sectors moving again, it will be very hard to make an argument one way or the other.<BR/><BR/>Some smaller points: <BR/><BR/>BRIC looks done for now.<BR/><BR/>Cash may not be king, but nothing else is working either.<BR/><BR/>It's a smart post. Nice work.The Stock Speculatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16715224988441074666noreply@blogger.com