Julian Robertson on Greece/Europe, China & Various Stock Picks

CNBC's Kelly Evans interviewed Tiger Management's Julian Robertson and he talked about a range of topics, including Greece and Europe, China, Puerto Rico, and various stocks.

He doesn't seem too terribly concerned by the situation in Greece in and of itself, but if contagion spreads to Spain or Italy and potentially other countries, then things could get dicey.

Robertson says European equities "have been a very good place to be and may still be ... but you certainly want to hedge the currency."

His main concern now is that we're in the midst of a serious credit bubble.  Money that normally would flow into bonds has been forced into stocks.  This is something he's mentioned previously as well.

On Chinese equities, he notes, "I think the prospects for Chinese companies... some of them are very great.  I have changed from Alibaba (BABA) to JD.com (JD) ... JD has an advantage in that it's never had any knock-off problems.  We are very bullish on JD now and we have sold Alibaba for it."  Our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter back in May highlighted that many Tiger Cub funds were betting big on JD.

Robertson continues to like Apple (AAPL) but he's not overly concerned about the Watch.  He said, "Apple would be selling at double or triple its present price now if this was the 70's or 80's."

Additionally, he continues to like Gilead Sciences (GILD).  He's been short Assured Guaranty (AGO) as well.

On his industry, Robertson notes that, "I think the hedge fund industry is suffering from the expansion of the industry."  He says now you're competing with so many other hedge funds whereas back in the day you were competing with less managers and less sophisticated rivals.

Embedded below is the video of Robertson's interview on CNBC:



For more on this legendary investor, head to Morgan Creek's Q1 letter on learning from Robertson.

What We're Reading ~ Hedge Fund Links 5/3/13

Seth Klarman cautions "false sense of calm in the US" [ValueWalk]

Emerging manager interview with Tappan Street Partners [Distressed Debt Investing]

Children's Investment Fund trumpets Japan Tobacco investment [Moneybeat]

Paul Singer on gold's irreplaceability and euro's dark future [ValueWalk]

Corvex's Keith Meister lays out investment in Commonwealth [Moneybeat]

Valiant Capital has rough first quarter [Institutional Investor's Alpha]

JANA's Rosenstein slams Agrium [Absolute Return]

SEC said to push for lifting ban on hedge fund ads [Bloomberg]

Hedge funds scooping up personal property tax liens [Term Sheet]

Highfields Capital faces uphill task with Tim Hortons [Hedgeworld]

Eddie Lampert tries to convince shareholders Sears is on the right track [Hedgeworld]

Lansdowne exits Prudential short after meaningful losses [Bloomberg]

You've never heard of one of the best performing hedge funds [Quartz]

Tough times for hedge funds that bet on market tumult [Reuters]

Hedge funds drive demand for Greek Corporate Debt [Moneybeat]

Indian hedge funds dare where foreign investors fear [Reuters]

The hunt for Steve Cohen [Vanity Fair]

Ray Dalio on QE3, Gold, China, Europe, Economy & More (Interview)

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio appeared on CNBC this morning for a rare interview.  Bridgewater manages $130 billion and is listed as the top hedge fund by net gains since inception.  Here's a summary of Dalio's thoughts from this morning as well as the videos:

On QE3 and the US Dollar

Dalio said that QE3 was a good plan.  When you ease interest rates,  it stimulates private sector credit growth.  And then after that you utilize quantitative easing.  He feels the US dollar is squeezed due to lots of dollar denominated debt, but after this squeeze he says it's going to decline in the near-term.




On China

The hedge fund titan points out that China can have 6% growth and still think that's depressing all while the US has 2% growth.

Just yesterday we posted about how Jim Chanos is still short China.  And of course we've also highlighted the China hedge fund bear thesis.



On Gold

He says "it should be part of everyone's portfolio to some degree because it diversifies the portfolio."  He likens gold to an alternative version of cash and over the long term he says it's better than cash.  "Money can be produced, but gold is somewhat limited."



On Europe

Bridgewater's founder says there's going to be a "managed depression" in southern Europe in the next few years, and thinks we'll see both a combination of monetary policy (money printing) and a deleveraging and restructuring of debt over there.  He says the euro is "likely" to stay together and it is controlled by southern Europeans, though there's more risk for the currency in later years.



On His Biggest Worry

He worries about social distortion and another leg down in various economies causing them.  He notes that deleveragings can be painful and we've posted up Dalio's in-depth look at deleveragings before.


On a Possible Downturn in the US Economy

The Bridgewater founder said that the odds of an unmanaged downturn are "comparatively low."  He likens it to flying on a plane where you could hit an air pocket and that's when problems could arise. 


Dalio's Rules of Investing

He says, "I don't get caught up in the moment.  I think so many people are reactive and they see things in a very short-term way."  He goes on to say that, "almost all important events never happened in your life."  He looks at what's happened in the past and uses that as a template for rules for each scenario essentially saying 'if this happens, do that.'



Dalio is profiled in the new book The Alpha Masters which we recommend reading.  For even more thoughts from Bridgewater's leading man, check out this recent in-depth interview with Dalio from a few days ago.

Delivering Alpha Global Opportunities Panel: Perry, Briger, Mendillo & Erdoes

Today we're posting up highlights from CNBC & Institutional Investor's Delivering Alpha Conference.  We've already posted up the best ideas panel and the chase for yield panel, now we're posting up the global opportunities panel featuring Perry Capital's Richard Perry, Fortress' Peter Briger, Harvard Management's Jane Mendillo, and JPMorgan's Mary Callahan Erdoes.


Richard Perry (Perry Capital):  The hedge fund founder thinks the ECB will keep pumping liquidity into the system, straight to banks rather than governments.  He actually feels the crisis in Europe has been blown out of proportion (at least the extent of it) and it will be a smoother recovery than expected.  Perry feels the euro will survive.

Perry said he likes Italy and Spain sovereign debt but emphasized that he's a trader and could change his mind as fast as tomorrow and also said that "at the end of the quarter, you can't have Spain and Italy on your books."  (Related: we've highlighted how Dan Loeb's Third Point has been long Portuguese sovereign debt.)  Perry noted they've been worried about Spain for three years now.  He also says that in Washington they need to focus on spurring mortgage lending and focusing on immigration reform.


Peter Briger (Fortress):  Briger disagrees with Perry and feels that European bank balance sheets have lots of risk assets that haven't been priced appropriately, saying there's still a lot to work through (debt).  He basically wants to get excited about these opportunities but says prices aren't intriguing enough (cash is still king right now for him).  He says we're in a "period of transitional finance."  His favorite play is financial services "garbage collection" over the next 5 years.  He also mentioned that if he was a long-only investor, he'd be intrigued by the US mortgage market.


Jane Mendillo (Harvard Management Co):  She noted how she's seeing a lot of investors looking for distressed credit in Europe, almost in a frenzy, as there's more dollars than opportunities.  They are not piling in now but are indeed looking at long-term opportunities.  Her favorite space right now is natural resources as she thinks there's still inefficiencies there: farmland, energy, water, timberland, infrastructure.


Mary Callahan Erdoes (JPMorgan):  The CEO of JPMorgan Chase Asset Management said her top pick is to short the Euro.  Coming off a trip to Asia, she notes that investors over there are still looking at US opportunities. She also said that "buy and hold" is definitely dead.  Erdoes made the case for European equities (with an emphasis on luxury), calling it a stock picker's market.


Sources: Notes from readers, II's blog, @iimag, @ldelevingne, @footnoted, @aarontask


For more from the Delivering Alpha Conference, head to a summary of the best ideas panel featuring Leon Cooperman, Jim Chanos as well as the hunt for yield panel featuring Marc Lasry.

Lone Pine Capital Says Euro is Doomed & China's Debt Will Lead to a Crisis

Steve Mandel's hedge fund Lone Pine Capital says there are major concerns for global financial markets going forward.

*Update: excerpt removed per request from representatives of Lone Pine



Their point on China is not the first time we've heard this cautious approach. Grandmaster Capital's Patrick Wolff has called China a debt-fueled investment bubble. Kleinheinz Capital also believes that inflation is the biggest threat to emerging markets. And lastly, hedge fund manager Jonathan Ruffer also put out commentary that he's worried about China.

But at the same time, there are other prominent investment managers that take the other side of the argument. We've covered previously how Maverick Capital is focused on China's importance and how Warren Buffett has said China will be a big driver of growth for the next 10-20 years. At the Delivering Alpha Conference, Xerion fund's Dan Arbess debated against Kynikos Associates' Jim Chanos as to whether China is a bubble or bonanza.

While big names stand on either side of the argument, only time will tell who is ultimately proven correct.