Ricky Sandler Long GMCR & ZNGA, Short WAB (Invest For Kids Chicago Presentation)

We're posting up notes from the Invest For Kids Chicago conference 2015.  Next up is Eminence Capital's Ricky Sandler who pitched a long of Keurig Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR).


Ricky Sandler's Invest For Kids Chicago Presentation

•    At 25 launched his own business Fusion Partners. In '98 started Eminence
•    Long idea: GMCR/Keurig Green Mountain.
•    Controversial there is a credible short story. Thinks it’s already priced in and an incredible long opportunity.
•    Two businesses, hot biz (kcups) and Kold with sodas, brand new.
•    Hot platform sell 9MM to 10mm brewers/year and sell 10B to 11B kcups per year.
•    Razor/razorblade model.
•    Significant room for increased household penetration. Current penetration at 21M to 22M households compared to 70MM homes. With a coffeemaker.
•    Think market goes single serve.
•    Industry kcup should grow in the LDD range.
•    $4 of EPS from the hot business in FY15 estimated.
•    Think hot EPS can reach $5 over the next couple years driven by volume growth, $300MM restructuring, normalizing brewer losses form the last holiday season, normalized coffee costs, share buybacks and offsetting some headwinds.
•    Kold launched in September with Coca-Cola. Addressable market thinks its 5x – 10x hot.
•    Reviews are high on quality but negative on price/value.
•    $375 asp per machine and pods more expensive than a can of coke.
•    Not so much price of pod, but thinks the range of pods/products.
•    Think its convenience/choice. Negatives looking at just price.
•    Kold loss 50 cents per share.
•    Trades at 15.5x FY15E sept EPS and 13.5x EPS ex kold.
•    EPS estimates under pressure – poor 2.0 brewer launch execution and K-cup profitability impacted by mix shift. Finally negative reaction to kold.
•    Hot value = 17x -20x hot EPS ($5) or 85-100 plus option value for kold.
•    KO owns 17% at $92. Insiders bought at $90.


•    Loves Baidu (BIDU), and a top five position.


•    Zynga (ZNGA) – mobile gaming. Franchises include Farmville, words with friends.
•    Some think games are obsolete, ZNGA has 75MM active users.
•    Zynga was late to the consumer shift from desktop to mobile making the last two years rough. •    Mobile games for the last year =70% of bookings vs 30% a year ago.
•    Expect new titles over the next 12 months.
•    Trading at 1x sales when backing out SF real estate ($500MM value). $687MM EV.
•    Launch 6 new games, $300MM incremental bookings bringing total bookings to $900MM.
•    KING sold for 2.6x sales, using that valuation = $5.
•    At a 35% margin, ZNGA generate $315MM EBITDA or trading for 2x.
•    Has big infrastructure to support bigger biz. Downside protection by cash and real estate.
•    Top hit potential = $1B rev potential.
•    Mobile gaming is $20B biz. New categories such as esports and real money gaming growing.


•    Wabtec (WAB) – Short.
•    Leading supplier of brakes, electronics and other railroad components to the global rail industry.
•    55% - 60% of EBIT comes from NA freight segment.
•    LT rail is GDPish industry and cyclical.
•    Track record is fantastic – only US listed co whose stock price increased every year for 14 straight years, 19% EPS CAGR form 06 to 15E and hadn’t missed earnings since 09 and 3Q15.
•    Bull thesis – not cyclical, high ROIC/ high market share high after market mix/quality biz.
•    Product mix is opaque due to acquisition strategy.
•    Bulls think EPS will grow double digits for ever.
•    WAB is cyclical and currently at the peak of rail equipment super cycle driven by NA O&G activity.
•    Demand driven by trail traffic, production of new locomotives and freight cars.
•    Rail traffic is weak – CNI talking about laying off employees.
•    Locomotives – NSC storing locomotives, expect it to be up to 200. GE orders dropped significantly, only sold compared 3 the last quarter.
•    Freightcar peak – industry backlog driven by tank cars oil and covered hoppers i.e. frack sand. 40% downside to deliveries.
•    Trading at 20x EPS, 13x EBITDA. Could be peak earnings in FY15. Mid cycle earnings $3.5 - $4. At 16x = $60 or 30% downside.
•    Low short interest, favorable sell side ratings.
•    Consensus calls for positive organic growth.


Check out the rest of the presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago 2015.

Eminence Capital's Ricky Sandler on Wall Street Week: KORS, EBAY/PYPL, ZNGA, RGC & More

Ricky Sandler, founder of hedge fund Eminence Capital, was recently interviewed on Anthony Scaramucci's rebooted show Wall Street Week.

Eminence manages $6.5 billion now and has been running for 17 years.  Sandler focuses on "quality value," looking for quality businesses but trading at discount prices.  He likes the intersection of growth and value, focusing on a "growth at a reasonable price" approach.

He likes Michael Kors (KORS) and notes it was a momentum stock that experienced a deceleration and he thinks it's a terrific brand that has opportunity for international expansion, trading at under at 10x PE.

Sandler also touched on eBay (EBAY), which recently split off its payments arm PayPal (PYPL).  The standalone EBAY is now purely an online marketplace.  Sandler says PYPL trades about for 20x earnings when you back out the cash, and it has 20% growth "for as far as the eye can see."

The Eminence founder also talked about gaming plays Zynga (ZNGA), Activision (ATVI), Take Two Interactive (TTW), and Ubisoft (UBI.PA).

Eminence is also short Regal Cinemas (RGC).

We've highlighted some other portfolio activity from Eminence here.

Embedded below is the video of Ricky Sandler's Wall Street Week interview:



For more, be sure to check out Mario Gabelli's interview on Wall Street Week from last week too.

Eminence Capital Boosts Zynga Position

Ricky Sandler's hedge fund firm Eminence Capital has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding their position in Zynga (ZNGA).  Per the filing, Eminence now owns 5.1% of the company with over 38 million shares.

This means they've boosted their share count by over 11.5 million since the end of the second quarter.  The filing was required due to activity on August 21st.

In other activity from this fund, we recently highlighted how Eminence started a World Wrestling Entertainment stake as well.

Per Google Finance, Zynga is "the provider of social game services. The Company develops , market and operates online social games as live services played over the Internet and on social networking sites and mobile platforms. The Company's games are accessible on Facebook and other social networks, mobile platforms and Zynga.com."