Avenue Capital's Marc Lasry: "The Best Place To Invest Is The US"

Avenue Capital's Marc Lasry today appeared on Bloomberg TV to talk about markets.

Pulled from the full transcript, Masry commented that:

On the U.S. economy, Lasry said: "I actually think the U.S. economy is doing great compared to the rest of the world.  So the first question is where would you want to invest?  Do you want to invest in the U.S., do you want to invest in Europe, do you want to invest in China, do you want to invest in emerging markets?  At the end of the day, the best place to invest is the U.S. So if I was going to be an equity investor, I would be an investor in the U.S."

On the idea of more Fed stimulus, Lasry said: "I think it would be the worst thing in the world…I think right now, we have been living off of theses low interest rates and having more stimulus isn’t what you need.  What you actually need is you need to get back to a little bit of normalacy and understand that the Fed can’t keep on pumping more and more stimulus into our economy.  Our economy is fine.  Let it grow and let it do what it needs to do."

Embedded below are some of the videos of Lasry's interview on Bloomberg TV:

Video 1


Video 2


Video 3


Video 4


For more from this manager, head to Marc Lasry's interview on Wall Street Week.

Marc Lasry on Wall Street Week: "Huge Opportunities" in Energy Debt & Europe

Anthony Scaramucci and Gary Kaminsky this week on Wall Street Week interviewed Marc Lasry of Avenue Capital, which now has $14 billion in assets under management after initially starting with around $7 million.  Lasry likes to take fixed income risk but generate equity-like returns.


Lasry noted that he's been seeing "huge opportunities" in the energy sector, mainly due to the fact that oil's gone down.  He says you don't want to be an equity holder, but you want to be a senior debt holder.

He's also finding some investments in Europe as the banks over there are deleveraging.  Avenue is buying assets at 60-70 cents on the dollar from people who are required to sell due to regulatory pressure.

On what he looks for in an investment:  "We're trying to buy something we think is worth 100 cents for 60 cents on the dollar.  So you're always trying to buy something at a discount to what you think the asset value is.  And you can only do that when you're buying from non-economic sellers... someone who's nervous or somebody who has to sell.  So you need to have a lot of drama or issues around the world."

Embedded below is the video of Marc Lasry's appearance on Wall Street Week:



Be sure to check out previous Wall Street Week episodes like their interview with David Rubenstein as well as Steve Einhorn here.

Shawn Foley's 2 Stock Picks at Capitalize For Kids Sohn Canada Conference

We're posting up notes from the Capitalize For Kids Sohn Canada conference that just took place.  Next up is Shawn Foley of Avenue Capital Group who pitched long YRC Worldwide (YRCW) and long Meritor (MTOR).


Shawn Foley's Sohn Canada Presentation

Manages the Avenue Capital US Strategy, distressed debt with US leveraged finance focus with firm wide AUM of $14B.

Pitched LONG YRC Worldwide (YRCW), a asset-light trucking company with recent troubles. Waiting for the story to play out.

Next, pitched LONG Meritor (MTOR) – only a quick overview. 

Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from Capitalize For Kids Sohn Canada here.

NYU Stern Evaluation Investment Newsletter: Marc Lasry Interview

NYU Stern's student-run investment newsletter Evaluation is out with its second issue.  This time around, they focus on distressed investing with interviews with Avenue Capital's Marc Lasry, as well as bankruptcy expert Dr. Ed Altman, among others.

Also featured are investment pitches from the Stern Investment Idea contest.  Ideas include long Urban Outfitters (URBN), short Ulta Salon (ULTA), long Apple (AAPL), long Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI), long Wisdom Tree (WETF), long Amerco (UHAL), and long FTI Consulting (FCN).

Embedded below is the second edition of NYU Stern's Evaluation investment newsletter:



If you missed it, we posted NYU Stern's inaugural issue here as well.

Avenue Capital Discloses Punch Taverns Position

Marc Lasry's Avenue European Management hedge fund has been building a stake in London listed pub company Punch Taverns (LON:PUB). 

Due to trading on the 6th and 10th of January, Avenue now own the equivalent of 8.29% of Punch Taverns' voting rights, all via contracts for difference/derivatives.

Avenue know the company well as Lasry mentioned in an NYT interview in 2012 that they held a position in Punch's debt.

Larry Robbins' Glenview Capital Management are Punch Taverns' largest shareholder with an 18.77% stake which they have held for over five years.

Per Google Finance – “Punch Taverns plc is a United Kingdom-based pub company. The Company is  engaged in the operation of public houses under either the leased model or as directly managed by   the Company. The Company operates in two business segments: punch partnerships, a leased estate   and punch pub company, a managed estate. Punch Partnerships is the Company’s leased division,   comprising 5,967 pubs nationwide. Punch Pub Company is its managed division, comprising 803   pubs nationwide. The leased model involves the granting of leases to tenants who operate the pub   as their own business, paying rent to the Company, purchasing beer and other drinks from it and   entering into profit sharing arrangements for income from leisure machines. Pubs that are directly   managed involve the employment of a manager to operate each managed pub.

Marc Lasry Sees Opportunities in Europe: Interview

Yesterday, Avenue Capital's Marc Lasry appeared on CNBC to talk about markets and his latest positioning.

He noted they're still long J.C. Penney bonds and think things will work out as it's essentially a turnaround bet.  We've previously posted Lasry's presentation on JCP bonds.

They see opportunities in Europe due to the deleveraging and are also looking to do direct lending to take advantage.  He said you want to focus on equities in Southern Europe but bonds in Northern Europe.

Embedded below is the video of Marc Lasry's interview:



If you missed it, we also posted up Jamie Dinan's interview as well as Lee Cooperman's interview from the same segment.

Marc Lasry Long JC Penney Debt: Invest For Kids Chicago Presentation

Next up in our notes from Invest For Kids Chicago 2013 is Marc Lasry of Avenue Capital.  He pitched J.C. Penney (JCP) as a long at the event.


Marc Lasry's Presentation at Invest For Kids Chicago 2013

•    Reason all the risk in the system is that LIBOR is that 25 bps
•    Supposed to generate a 40x RFR for get 10% per annum. But isn’t there risk there?
•    Why is that risk?


•    Idea #1 is J.C. Penney Debt
o    Why JC Penney? Convince to go and shop
o    Everyone believes JCP will file for bankruptcy
o    Bonds mispriced based on that assumption
o    JCP operates in 49 states (no Hawaii)
o    Slowing retail environment and they get rid of old CEO and bring in Ron Johnson
o    Ron Johnson took a bunch of risk
o    Coupons and promotions here historical
o    Prior to new strategy $17 billion in sales $1.4 billion of EBITDA yet goes to -$500 million of EBITDA
o    Able to raise $2.2 billion of new debt to get to $3 billion of debt and $2.5 billion on unsecured – but that have $2 billion of cash
o    Interest payments are $250 million so hard to file of bankruptcy
o    JCP survives unless the value differential
o    Make ~25% return per year for 2 years in debt so you are making 80x RFR due to the believe that JCP will file bankruptcy
o    Same stores sales are flat to up
o    So you are creating the company
o    Majority is telling you “you are wrong”
o    “Nobody likes noise and don’t want to deal with it and that creates opportunity”

While Lasry's talking about debt, numerous other prominent hedge funds have been in and out of JCP equity and you can scroll through that link to follow the saga.


•    Idea #2: Connacher Oil & Gas Bonds at 70
 o    Worth par over a year to a year and a year and a half
o    Pure oil sands company in western Alberta
o    Crude is at $90 a barrel and the price of crude was $45 in 2012
o    Keystone pipeline was delayed and so shipping crude was expensive by rail and they have reduced arbitrage from $16 per barrel in operating margin to $32 (should still rise)
•    Buying investment at 43% discount to NAV because the market doesn’t understand what Connacher is doing and create something at a big discount to a proven value (as opposed to under comps) 


Check out the rest of the hedge fund presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago here.

Avenue Capital's Marc Lasry: Huge Amount of Distressed Opportunities in Europe

Marc Lasry, co-founder of Avenue Capital appeared today on Bloomberg TV where he said he thinks there's a huge amount of distressed debt investing opportunities in Europe.  He also argued that Europe would not blow up.

His firm manages just under $13 billion and this is the second time we've seen him appear to talk about the opportunities in distressed debt.


Here are some select excerpts from his interview we found intriguing:

On investing in Europe:  "The great thing about Europe today is you've got a huge amount of supply and very little demand. So you're not really bumping into everybody. I think that’ll change over time."

Which is the better opportunity: US or Europe?  "I think in Europe today, you're getting overpaid for the risk. For us, we can buy senior debt in Europe for around 50 cents, 60 cents and here in the U.S. you're paying 70 cents or 80 cents for it. The question is, where do you want to be investing? A lot of it goes to, if you look at investing today, the risk-free rate is 20 basis points, so where are you getting paid to take the risk? For us to make 15% to 20%, we think we can do it in Europe a lot easier than here."

How Avenue's been investing:  "We have been investing the capital about 5% a month. The reason for that if we think over the next year or year and a half, there's a huge amount of opportunities and the question is, is the better time to invest three months ago or three months from now? Our view is to invest over time. And we think we'll just average in the prices."

Is Lasry worried about Europe short-term? "It matters but our long-term view is over the course of the next two or three years, everything is going to work itself out, and whether it's George Soros or it's somebody else, which you constantly keep hearing every week and every month that Europe has problems. We all know that. I think it'll work out. If you believe that and you invest, you'll do well."


Embedded below is Marc Lasry's full interview with Bloomberg TV:




For more on this investor, Marc Lasry is profiled/interviewed in the new book The Alpha Masters which is definitely worth reading.

Marc Lasry on Opportunities in Distressed Debt

Avenue Capital's chairman and founder Marc Lasry was on Bloomberg TV yesterday giving an interview where he talked about investing in European debt.  He also said investors should focus on the the world's largest economy, the US, rather than China.  He's been focused on homebuilders and on the energy side, mainly focusing on senior secured.

He talked about raising $3 billion for a special situations fund to invest in European debt.  He argues that you need a lockup with that money because these situations are going to take years to play out.  Here's the video:



The hedge fund manager also touched on his distressed focus, noting that while others might think he's taking on a lot of risk, he doesn't believe so since he often deals with senior secured debt.

He mentioned how he learned a lot from David Bonderman.  One of the best lessons he learned is: "there's a difference between what the perception is and what the actuality is."

He also talked about his love for poker as he regularly hosts games.  Lasry says there's many similarities between investing and poker as the card game is very mathematical.  In the past, we've highlighted the high amount of hedge fund managers that play poker. 

Embedded below is the other video of Lasry's interview:



For more on his investment niche, head to comments from a hedge fund distressed panel.

Marc Lasry: Long General Motors & Hovnanian Bonds ~ Invest For Kids Chicago Notes

At Invest For Kids Chicago yesterday, Marc Lasry of Avenue Capital gave a presentation on going long General Motors (GM).

Be sure to check out all notes from Invest For Kids Chicago where numerous high profile hedge fund managers shared their latest investment ideas.


Long General Motors (GM)

Lasry pitched GM, saying that the company had the largest US market capitalization at $12.2 billion in the late 1950's. In 2000, GM's revenue was higher than Wal-Mart at $189 billion. Currently, GM equity trades at less than 1.0x EV/EBITDA (including JVs at 17.9B, cash 20.3B, Market Cap 41.7B, other assets 4.3B, 5.5B in debt, and 6.9B preferreds).

He compares GM now to Apple (AAPL) back when they needed $150 million from Microsoft (MSFT) or AAPL would have gone bankrupt. Since that loan from Microsoft, Apple many years later has become the largest company in the world at $350 billion.

Lasry says investors are focusing on timing re: GM and that's not the right way to do it. Ultimately, he acknowledges there's lots of risk out there. But the key question you have to ask, he says, is "are you getting paid enough to invest?"

The risk for GM is another recession and people buy fewer cars. As a true contrarian, he likes to buy when others aren't. He started buying the bonds when it was 2x EBITDA and you can get an even better entry point today. We just covered how David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital bought GM equity in the third quarter as well.


Long Hovnanian (HOV)

Lasry also mentioned that he liked homebuilder Hovnanian as rates and prices are both very low. The company has 350 million in cash, 1B inventory and 1B NOLs. He likes the 6 to 7% bonds at 35 with 20% yield. You get paid to wait and thinks you are covered and he'd rather get paid to wait with the bonds than take on more risk with the equity. Avenue Capital believes that the US GDP will have 1% growth next year and no double-dip recession.

You can view full notes from Invest For Kids Chicago here.