Delivering Alpha Commodities Panel: Dwight Anderson, Jennifer Fan & Beau Taylor

The last set of notes from CNBC & Institutional Investor's Delivering Alpha Conference comes from the commodities panel featuring Ospraie's Dwight Anderson, Arbalet Capital's Jennifer Fan, and Taylor Woods Capital's Beau Taylor.

Be sure to check out notes from the Delivering Alpha conference for all the other panels.

Dwight Anderson (Ospraie):  The legendary commodities man thinks there's risk in corn, wheat and grain markets (corn has spiked insanely higher, trading limit up on numerous occasions).  He argued more investors should look into farmland.  We've highlighted in the past how Michael Burry likes farmland (yes, the Michael Burry of subprime shorting fame).  Two months ago at the Ira Sohn Conference, we also highlighted how Anderson was long palladium, short platinum.


Jennifer Fan (Arbalet Capital):  She was named one of Institutional Investor's rising stars in 2011 and Arbalet was one of the biggest fund launches this year.  Her comments included that being a farmer is harder than being a hedgie.  She also echoed Anderson's sentiment that corn is risky.  She also pointed out that Chinese GDP numbers are volatile (much more-so than what's reported).


Beau Taylor (Taylor Woods Cap): He feels that crude oil could go much higher ($200 per barrel), citing violence in countries like Syria, Iraq, Iran and some African countries.  He likes Brent over WTI.  He also likes farmland, but says it's hard to scale.

Sources: Notes from readers, II's blog, @ldelevingne


Be sure to check out all the other notes from the Delivering Alpha Conference.

Dwight Anderson: Long Palladium, Short Platinum (Ira Sohn Presentation)

We're posting up notes from the Ira Sohn Conference.  Ospraie Management's Dwight Anderson gave a presentation on going long palladium, short platinum, as well as long Westlake Chemical (WLK).  He's a fundamental investor focused on bottom-up research, mines, agricultural.  Was previously at Tiger Management, Tudor Investment Corp.

Long: Westlake Chemical (WLK). Ethylene, and Vinyls (options on improving housing volumes) Petroleum-based competitors are bleeding cash. Westlake improves from shale in US. As of 2013, Ethyne prices will drop by 0.25 a pound, a 50% increase in WLK eps. $55, should earn $5 this year. Replacement value $75. Management is expanding capacity, still $150M FCF.


Long Palladium/Short Platinum:  Changes in prices gets no supply response for Palladium. Platinum: auto is 65% of demand, then tech, dental, jewelry, per vehicle can't be less, despite engineers efforts. In 2007, 75M vehicles, 4.1M oz. of platinum, but at 85M vehicles, it fell to 3.1M. So story is simple, Palladium is taking share from Platinum.


P.S. - Don't miss other presentations from David Einhorn, John Paulson, Bill Ackman & more: notes from Ira Sohn Conference 2012.

Dwight Anderson To Open 2 New Ospraie Hedge Funds

If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. This cliché is the root of folly on Wall Street and in the hedge fund industry in general. Perfect example: The Ospraie Fund's Dwight Anderson is set to start two new hedge funds in July. Okay, new hedge funds, what's the big deal? Well, the problem here is that Dwight Anderson lost 39% in his Ospraie Fund in 2008 and had to liquidate the fund. At its peak, Ospraie managed $3.8 billion in commodities. But if at first you don't succeed, try, try again. And, that's exactly what Anderson is set to do.

Anderson will open two new hedge funds in July of 2009, the first of which will focus on stocks of commodity and basic materials companies (The Ospraie Equity Fund). He will also open a fund focused on commodities and derivatives (The Ospraie Commodity Fund). Anderson said that he is starting these funds because he sees significant opportunities in this market, as significant as he has ever seen in his 15 years of investing. These funds will have reduced fees where investors will pay half as much as the typical hedge fund. His new funds will charge a 1% management fee and a 10% performance fee.

His Ospraie fund is named after the osprey, a marine bird of prey. Ironically enough, his fund was the one being preyed upon in 2008. The volatile year of 2008 goes to show that anyone, regardless of their background can be humbled by Ms. Market. Anderson had previously worked at Julian Robertson's Tiger Management. While we never covered Anderson on the blog, we did cover numerous other successful Tiger Cub hedge fund managers. Anderson then went to work for global macro giant Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp. Contrary to Anderson, Tudor has made it through this crisis largely unscathed. Scoreboard: Master 1, Apprentice 0.

Anderson started Ospraie while at Tudor and then eventually spun it off where he saw 15% annual gains from 2000 until 2007. But, even after working and learning from some of the best in the game, Anderson still got hit... hard. Interestingly enough, we see that another fund has recently spun out of Tudor Investment Corp: James Pallotta's Raptor Capital. We just started covering Raptor in our hedge fund tracking series and only time will tell if they can avoid the fate suffered by Ospraie's prior Tudor spin-off. In an unrelated note: what's up with all the funds coming out of Tudor being named after animals of prey? We found that interesting, as everyone wants to be 'the hunter.' It's just highly ironic when you become the one being hunted.

To conclude, we rejoin our market fairytale. In typical Wall Street fashion, Anderson closed his old fund and brought two new funds to the surface. When will this pitiful cycle end? It amazes us that managers are continually given money after blowing up. But, that's Wall Street and that's the hedge fund industry; folly at its best. If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. Sigh.