Jonathan Ruffer: Seeking Refuge in Inflation-Linked Bonds, Gold & Japanese Equities (Q3 Commentary)

It's been a while since we checked in on what Jonathan Ruffer is up to, so today we present the latest Q3 market commentary from his Ruffer Investment Company.  The UK-based fund provides perspective on the other side of the world and outlines what's worrying them currently.

On Dangers They See

"We therefore hold investments on the basis of how they will perform in an environment quite different from today, and we have identified two dangers which need to be guarded against.  The first and, arguably the most worrisome, is that the price of cash (no income on bank deposits) is distorted: you are robbed if you hold cash.  That drives savers into investments which have cash-like qualities.  The result is that the safer and surer an investment is, the more it will reflect (by overvaluation) the distortion of cash on deposit.  When that distortion reverses, the capital value of these safe investments will decline as they re-price for the new normal."

Ruffer goes on to lay out the second great risk that investors face at the moment:

"... to assess what will happen when the stimulus of monetary liquidity grinds to a halt."


Ruffer Sees Future Inflation

Of all the printing of money worldwide by central banks, Ruffer notes that:

"The markets, the inflation rate, the experts and the populace remain quiescent - but sooner or later that will change - and suddenly.  High inflation will follow - but not the hyper-inflation that the doomsters (who, as a group, are the guys who are looking in the right direction) hope for."

It's worth noting that Ruffer has been concerned about inflation for some time now. 


How They Are Playing It

"It is not  enough to see it coming: we need also to have the wisdom to know what is likely to represent a safe haven – bearing in  mind that safe havens are all entering this new and frightening overvalued phase, because the attack on savers has already started. That is probably the right way to look at the lack of yield on deposit. We are taking refuge in inflation-linked bonds and gold, of course: but we remain attracted by Japanese equities, which have, up until now, stood out like a bad deed on  Armistice Day. Japan is one of the few countries which will be the outright beneficiary of inflation, since the perils of  deflation have been an intermittent reality in that country. Although heavily indebted, the owners of the debt are exclusively  Japanese, and the government bonds they own are conventional, and not inflation-linked. Remember the argument above:  the way to clear the debt is to transfer the asset wealth from the saver to the borrower."


Embedded below is the latest market commentary from Jonathan Ruffer:





For additional recent investment manager commentary, head to: Dan Loeb's Q3 letter

Best Investments During Inflation

So, what is the best investment during inflation? The good news is that there are a multitude of securities and assets that can protect against inflationary pressure. The bad news is if such a scenario comes to fruition, your purchasing power is reduced. The main thing to keep an eye on is the money supply. Throughout the crisis, the monetary base has expanded, but has yet to materialize in the money supply. If/when this comes to fruition, you'll be prepared after learning how to invest for inflation below.

Interestingly enough, deflation has been the top concern amongst investors as of late and yesterday we detailed the best investments during deflation. But investors have quickly forgotten that inflation was the primary concern just a mere few months ago. This revisits a post we originally published in August 2008 examining investment scenarios for inflation versus deflation. Regardless of outcome, investors need to be prepared for either.

Why should you be worried about inflation? Well, how about because one of the greatest investors of this generation is concerned. Yup, Baupost Group's Seth Klarman is worried about inflation. Not to mention, Kyle Bass, the hedge fund manager who predicted the subprime crisis as well as sovereign defaults has voiced concern about inflation and significant currency devaluation around the globe. For every prominent investor worried about deflation, there is another concerned with the converse scenario.

Here are the best investments during inflation:

Avoid Cash/US Dollars: Inflation typically results in domestic currency devaluing. You can fight this by simply not holding it and allocating the capital into other assets and investments. Nowadays, cash is most certainly part of the asset allocation picture. During inflation, you want to have as little of it on hand if possible. Since it devalues during inflation, those of you wishing to press your bets against the US dollar can buy the PowerShares Bearish US dollar index fund (UDN).


Buy Gold & Precious Metals: If you'll think back toward the end of the crisis, gold was all the rage. As the Federal Reserve's printing presses worked overtime to churn out US dollars to resuscitate the economy, many became very worried about inflation. Their number one investment to protect against this? Gold. While precious metals in general are a solid bet, gold in particular is seen as a hedge against uncertainty and a store of value. For an in-depth thesis as to why you should buy gold during inflation, we turn you to out post on successful hedge fund manager John Paulson's gold fund. He launched this vehicle last year as a means of betting against the US dollar. Another option is the stocks of companies that mine the metal. One hedge fund recently opined that gold is good, but gold mining stocks are better.

We've detailed how countless other prominent investment managers favor yellow bricks. John Burbank's Passport Capital outlined the rationale for owning physical gold. David Einhorn's hedge fund Greenlight Capital also owns physical gold. Those of you who don't have access to physical bars can invest via the SPDR Gold Fund (GLD). Practically all of the hedge funds that are not investing in physical gold use this investment vehicle for their gold exposure. If gold doesn't tickle your fancy, legendary investor Jim Rogers sees opportunity in silver and palladium which can provide you with precious metals exposure. PALL is the ticker for playing palladium while SLV is a way to play silver.


Buy Crude Oil: Going long oil ties into the whole 'buy commodities' theme as protection. In a truly inflationary environment, oil is supply inelastic; any increase or decrease in price would not result in a corresponding increase or decrease in supply. In the past we've outlined how to invest in crude oil, as there are many investment vehicles out there, each with pros and cons. These funds include USO, DBO, & USL and are examined in-depth via the link above.


Short Fixed Income: Bonds should be avoided due to a weak domestic monetary system. In particular, avoid US Treasuries as they will underperform. As yields start to rise, bond prices will fall. A plethora of prominent investors have gone this route in order to gain inflationary protection. Seth Klarman has purchased out of the money puts on bonds. He's acquired tail risk insurance against a sharp rise in interest rates that protects him should rates skyrocket to 10%. Legendary hedge fund manager Julian Robertson had previously put on a curve steepener trade and then shifted to a constant maturity swap (CMS) trade. These are more advanced trades and typically are reserved for institutional investors. Retail investors can buy puts on or short the iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT).


Buy Emerging Markets: A weak domestic currency (US dollar) implies higher returns can be found abroad in other countries. A monetary system in trouble in the home land means your dollars should be invested abroad (especially consider commodity producing nations such as Australia and Brazil). You can invest in either emerging market currencies, equities abroad, or investment funds denominated in those foreign currencies. For broad emerging market equities exposure, one can purchase iShares Emerging Markets Index (EEM). For the Australian Dollar, consider FXA and for Brazilian exposure, consider EWZ.


Buy Technology: While this was also a suggestion for investing during deflationary times, it applies to inflation under the same rationale. Regardless of environment, technology is in demand and will continue to evolve.


Buy Treasury Inflation Protected Securities: These types of treasuries (known as TIPS for short) provide the safety of a government bond with the bonus of protection against inflation. You can buy these outright, or via the iShares Barclays TIPS fund (TIP).


While inflation was all the talk only a few months ago, it has since taken a back seat to deflationary chatter. Given the back and forth, it only makes sense to examine both scenarios. In the depths of the 2008 crisis we broadly examined investment scenarios for inflation versus deflation. At the time, it was unclear what type of environment we'd be entering. While still not entirely evident to this day, many have postulated that deflation in the near-term will then give way to inflation in the longer-term. A compromise of views, if you will. We've mapped out inflationary defenses above and for a look at the converse scenario, be sure to check out the best investments for deflation. Now you have a loose framework for either environment.

Best Investments During Deflation

Today we're laying a loose framework for the best investments during deflation. Why? Because deflationary signals have reared their ugly head as of late. Not to mention, many prominent investment managers have voiced their concern about the dreaded scenario. While inflation versus deflation has been the great debate over the past two years, the deflationistas have been boasting quite loudly as of late.

We've detailed how David Gerstenhaber's global macro hedge fund Argonaut Capital thinks deflation is the greater risk. Additionally, Broyhill's Affinity hedge fund has been betting on deflation as of late. PIMCO's bond king Bill Gross has been buying treasuries in order to combat these fears. And for more, The Reformed Broker has a quick summary of the New York Times' deflation round-up as well.

While investing during the dreaded 'D' word is not impossible, the options to preserve and grow capital are certainly limited. So, what is the best investment for deflation? Very broadly and in no particular order, here's some potential answers:


Cash/US Dollar: The phrase "cash is king" is often cliche. It's not cliche during deflation, it's rule number one. Assuredly, cash is one of the few 'safe' investments you can make in this scenario. Over the normal course of investing, most investors focus on their return on capital. This time around, the focus is simply on return *of* capital. While many wouldn't consider this an investment, having physical cash notes saved and on hand can be crucial during extreme situations including: bank failures, a collapse in credit, or the government defaulting on its debt. Not to mention, the US dollar has been a strong performer during deflationary times. Holding the physical currency is easy enough, but those wishing to further their wager can play the PowerShares US Dollar Bullish Index (UUP).


Pay Off Debt: Again while 'paying down debt' doesn't sound like an investment, it most definitely is during deflation. In a period where literally every single dollar matters, each dollar of debt can become crippling.


Buy Long-Term Bonds: Alternative to cash, fixed income is also seen as an option for those who seek protection. While fixed income yields decline due to Federal Reserve easing in an effort to combat deflation, the underlying bond should appreciate (or at the very least, depreciate much less than equities). US Treasuries are highly coveted here as they are the safest and most in-demand. If one were to go the corporate bond route, seeking high quality bonds is preferred. The thesis behind this play is laid out by Broyhill's Affinity hedge fund in their presentations: ten reasons to buy bonds as well as their bet on long-term treasuries. The most logical wager here would be the iShares Barclays 20+ year Treasury (TLT).


Short Equities: Traditional investments will start to suffer as underlying companies will see lower margins and losses. Not to mention, highly leveraged companies make ideal short selling targets and certain companies can face the risk of becoming insolvent. If your conviction is strong enough, you could simply short the S&P 500 index (SPY). There is, however, one potential safe haven in equities (keyword being 'potential'), which brings us to the next investment:


Buy High Quality Dividend Paying Stocks: Understand that during deflation, equities in general are one of the major investments to avoid. However, high quality stocks could be a potentially dim light in an otherwise dark scenario. While the majority of companies will lose pricing power and succumb to weak margins, large cap high quality companies that dominate their industries may be able to maintain pricing power. Not to mention, many of these stocks pay dividends which generate valuable cash during deflation. Seek companies with pristine balance sheets.

GMO's Jeremy Grantham recently voiced concern about deflation and one of his few investment recommendations was to buy high quality stocks. For ideas, hedge fund T2 Partners recently issued a presentation on 3 large cap stocks. Sectors to look toward include healthcare, technology, and telecom as those have outperformed in Japan during their deflationary lost decade. Microsoft (MSFT) is one name that has been repeatedly mentioned by strategists and managers. Keep in mind though that despite being high quality blue-chip companies, these are still equities. As such, there is obviously inherent risk in owning them during deflation.


Short Housing/Avoid Real Estate: In deflation, prices fall. As such, rent rather than own. Stand back and let the landlords watch the values of their properties plummet. You can short the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (IYR) for some exposure.


Short Leverage: Deleveraging should be a big theme playing out in the future, environment notwithstanding. As mentioned earlier, short the equity of companies that have poor balance sheets and are highly levered. In deflation, leverage begins to unwind and currency plays can be found. A massive leveraged carry trade in the Yen has taken place over the years and as such would be unwound in deflation, thus benefiting the Yen.


Long Technology: Regardless of environment, technology will advance and will be in demand. The technology sector was highlighted as one of the few areas to possible allocate capital in high quality equities. Companies that have strangleholds on their industry should have an advantage. A basket of technology stocks could be purchased via the technology exchange traded fund (XLK). However, that gives you exposure to a lot of companies and it's probably more preferable to single out high quality technology names with pristine balance sheets such as Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), and Cisco Systems (CSCO).


Gold: Conventional wisdom says to avoid precious metals during deflation. During the Great Depression from 1929-1932, commodities in general crashed. However, in very extreme circumstances (emphasis on extreme), some have argued that gold can make sense when acting as currency. The majority of proponents for owning gold during deflation would cite its store of value or hedge against uncertainty. While gold can be played via the SPDR Gold Fund (GLD), many hedge funds advocate physical gold. That said, those doing so are mainly seeking inflationary protection.


Buy TIPS: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, serve as long-term protection from inflation. Buying TIPS during deflation? What's the point? This is an option if investors believe that deflation will eventually lead to inflation two or three years later. As policy makers attempt to combat deflation, the natural antidote is inflationary medicine. As such, investors looking further down the road can fend off these inflationary pressures with TIPS. And even if deflation persists for an extended period of time, TIPS still produce income via yield and investors can regain their bond's face value at maturity. This can be played via iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) for those looking for an easy solution.


That sums up some of the best ways to position a portfolio when confronted with deflation. Recent concern is duly warranted considering that deflation typically rears its ugly head after periods of prolonged globalization and global growth. Such growth leads to increased investment, a massive increase in production, and thus excess capacity all around the world. This excess capacity then brings forth lower prices. In deflation, companies suffer while the consumer is the real winner. The above present theoretical options of how to invest during such a scenario. Make no mistake though, investing during deflation can be quite difficult and painful.

Back in August 2008 when the crisis was heating up, we penned a very broad outline of investment scenarios for inflation versus deflation. During the pinnacle of the crisis, it wasn't quite clear which situation would play out so it made sense to lay a framework for each context. (And arguably, it's still not entirely clear. Many have hypothesized that we'll see a compromise of views: deflation in the near-term and inflation in the long-term). A few months ago, inflation was all the rage. Now, deflation is the primary concern. Investors have been flip-flopping more frequently than politicians as of late.

Regardless of outcome, it makes sense to be prepared for either environment. Check back tomorrow as we'll turn the tables and outline the best investments during inflation in order to present both sides of the argument. In the mean time, be sure to see what hedge funds are investing in these days with our daily coverage.

A Simple Conservative Fixed-Income Portfolio

Wanted to take a second and highlight a simple fixed income portfolio. For those who are too busy to actively manage their portfolio in this crazy market, there's a simpler, "set it and forget it" type of portfolio for generating income. Such a portfolio was just highlighted as a conservative option recently in Kiplingers. They write,

"William Larkin, fixed-income portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management, in Salem, Mass., says his portfolio was originally designed for conservative clients who wanted conservative investments.

These days, though, he finds that many clients who hadn't considered themselves conservative in the past are now interested in fixed-income investing only. This portfolio represents all parts of the fixed-income market at the lowest possible cost, he says, and recently yielded 6.3%. It also has a healthy slug of inflation protection, which is particularly reassuring given all the money that's being printed for various government stimulus and rescue plans around the world.

Larkin's portfolio:

25% iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) (Tracks a broad index of high-quality U.S. bonds)
25% iShares iboxx $ Investment Grade Corporate (LQD) (Tracks an index of the most liquid, long-term corporate bonds)
10% Fidelity Floating Rate High Income (FFRHX) (Invests in floating rate bank loans that automatically adjusts to rising short-term interest rates. It offers additional inflation hedge)
10% iShares MBS Fixed Income (MBB) (Tracks a broad index mortgage-backed securities)
7.5% SPDR DB International Govt Inflation-Protected Bond (WIP) (Invests in an index of non-U.S., inflation-linked bonds)
7.5% PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt (PCY) (Tracks an index of emerging markets government debt)
7.5% iShares Barclays TIPS Bond (TIP) (Tracks an index of inflation-protected, U.S. Treasury securities)
7.5% iShares Iboxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) (Tracks an index of high yield bonds)"

We actually wouldn't change much up with this portfolio. We'd obviously alter the percentage weightings based on age, retirement date goal, and risk tolerance. But, overall, this is a pretty solidly constructed portfolio for a conservative yield-seeking investor. And, you could substitute some other vehicles in there for other exposure as well. We definitely advocate a position in TIP for those desiring protection from the (in our mind) impending inflation. Also, LQD offers a decent yield from corporate bonds of many blue chip companies that aren't as risky. Blend in the corporate bond exposure from LQD with some exposure to HYG for exposure to riskier, higher yielding corporate bonds as well. Those are definitely our three favorite instruments in this portfolio. Emerging Market debt is also a very interesting play that theoretically could be enticing here, but we haven't done enough work in that area yet to really comment further on it.

You can view the entire post: Three Simple Portfolios.

Full Disclosure: market folly was long LQD at the time of publication