Andy Greenberg Long NXRT: Invest For Kids Chicago Presentation

We're posting up notes from the Invest For Kids Chicago conference 2015.  Next up is Andy Greenberg of Saker Management who pitched NXRT.


Andy Greenberg's Invest For Kids Chicago Presentation

•    Event driven firm.
•    Idea is NXRT.
•    Externally managed REIT spun off from the NHF closed-end fund.
•    Class B rental pricing driven upwards. Class B units negative.
•    Advisors own 16% of stock and can own up to 25%.
•    Focused in Dallas and Atlanta, expanding elsewhere.
•    FFO $1.28 per share. Should be around ~$1.4. 30% of market cap in cash. Reserved for renovations/upgrades.
•    FFO - $1.6 by 2016.
•    6% div yield. Under 10x FFO.
•    Larger comps over 20x and smaller comps low double digits.
•    Valuation challenge – market cap, gross leverage high, variable rate debt and potential rental rate pressures in a recession.
•    Think leverage manageable, shorter holding period dividend covered at higher rates.
•    Think portfolio could be sold, private market transactions at higher prices. Company is frustrated with stock performance.
•    Poorly conceived structure out the great. Better in a private structure.
•    Advisor fee can be cancelled with no fee to the advisor.
•    CEO of Highland owns $45MM of stock.
•    Think this could trade higher than $20 by Fy17.


Check out the rest of the presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago 2015.

Barry Sternlicht & Michael Sacks' Talk at Invest For Kids Chicago

We're posting up notes from the Invest For Kids Chicago conference 2015.  Next up is a conversation between Barry Sternlicht (Starwood Capital) and Michael Sacks (GCM Grosvenor).


Barry Sternlicht & Michael Sacks at Invest For Kids Chicago 2015

•    Barry started off at JMB working with the Bluhm family and Malkin.
 •    Left JMB in 91 and started Starwood with $21MM.  Today $51B real estate management firm.
•    Chicago as a real estate market? Great place dynamic city, lots to do. Started two hotel – (one hotel which is green), Baccarat hotel chain – sold for the highest price ever for a hotel to a Chinese buyer.
•    Mall management business based out of Chicago.
•    Pretty strong market. Don’t really play as it’s hard to understand and the supply factors.
•    Have been buying in the tax free states.
•    Agnostic to where he invests – looks for best returns but spends most of his time in real estate.
•    Wants to add value no financial engineering.
•    Buy malls and re-tenants them, redesign, etc.
•    Favorite markets/asset classes in real estate? Thinks high rise residential in midtown will be in a free fall, Arabs and Russians are gone, Chinese are fickle. Wants to short it.
•    Thinks the apartments he bought from Zell are good, a single not a home run, double digit cash flow yields.
•    Slow growth is good for them, doesn’t induce new supply and move interest rates.
•    NYC hotels overbuilt.
•    Canadians bigger tourists versus Chinese. CAD decimated.
•    LT NYC great but short term is hard.
•    REITs aren’t trading well due to flow of funds.
•    Rates up, REITs get killed due to dividend chasers.
•    Credit guys tend to be smarter, focused on cash flow versus equity guys focused on the multiple to put on cash flow which is subjective.
•    Thinks Japan is a big Ponzi scheme. ETF volume in Japan driven by government.
•    Real risk in world is central banks printing money. Printing money and buying real assets doesn’t seem kosher to him.
•    Correlations in stock market picking up.
•    Likes natural gas. Will displace coal.
•    Thinks you’ll see incredible crashes in HY market.
•    All bad actors in the world need higher oil prices.
•    Double digit cash yield on the box, bet on the demographics half of it was south Florida. Miami is the Singapore of the USA.
•    Denver as well, young people like Denver and bought Seattle. Americans not buying houses. Ppl marrying later.
•    Trillion dollars of student debt can’t afford houses.
•    Don’t intend to own those apartments purchased from Sam for 30 years just 5. Highest quality apartments in the class.


Check out the rest of the presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago 2015.

Sam Zell & Andrew Litt on Real Estate: Invest For Kids Chicago

We're posting up notes from the Invest For Kids Chicago conference 2015.  Next up is Sam Zell (Equity Group) and Andrew Litt (Land & Buildings) who talked about real estate.


Sam Zell & Andrew Litt at Invest For Kids Chicago 2015

•    Andrew met Sam 22 years ago while on the road show for Manufactured Home Communities. He was employed on the sell-side at that time.
•    Equity Residential recently sold $5B of real estate/apartments to Barry Sternlicht of Starwood.
•    Is Sam calling a top of the RE market?
•    Always been very disciplined and sold Equity Office before the last downturn as he thought someone offered him more than what they were worth. In case of apartments – different story.
•    Went public in 1993 - $800MM EV garden apartments.
•    Garden apartment – expressway visibility – “selling them shit”
•    Sam thinks the future was in high rise versus low rise, changing the company and upgrading portfolio. Suburbs sold, focus on 7 core markets. Envisioned selling it over 3 years, but had an opportunity to do it all at once at an attractive price and so he did it.
•    “Barry bought well maintained well occupied good assets which should be 75% leveraged versus 30%”.
•    Thinks it’s a win win for both.
•    Zell’s perspective concentrates them on where they want to be and return capital on a pro-rata basis.
•    On Equity Commonwealth – didn’t want to join activist campaign but said if they win, would take it over and finish it the last mile and got an option to purchase third of the activist’s position.
•    Didn’t buy/identify those assets and did analysis of opportunity – unusual situation as they could liquidate huge amounts of the portfolio without generating gains.
•    EQR had to distribute the proceeds, in Commonwealth’s case, liquidate assets pile up cash and keep control.
•    Purchased 10/15 years ago sold with no profits so that’s an indictment of the externally managed process (i.e. RMR’s management were terrible). Every day not buying their selling.
•    Didn’t have a hard time concluding that they should liquidate some of the assets.
•    Baseball adage – in the 8th inning on commercial real estate.
•    Once you get to the 9th inning – value dramatically dictated by quality of assets. High quality assets minor alterations but the marginal items in historical pricing is where you will see an impact in value.
•    US doing great today but the rest of the world isn’t. Starting to see the impact.
•    The disparity between B/A asset will increase.
•    Thoughts of activism? Thinks activism in most cases is another word for ownership. Biggest fallacy in capital markets is that companies are not “owned”.
•    Companies will be better out of activism. There are some good guys and some bad guys.
•    Not many viable opportunities as there is cash piling up.
•    Sending back $5.4B at EQR as they don’t think the cash can be invested at attractive returns. That is an ownership decision.
•    Where are you seeing opportunities? Difficult to broadly identify where there is significant demand.
•    Always steals/opportunities but don’t remember a signal period in his career where broad generalizations where irrelevant.
•    Investing in western Mexico – manufacturing is going there, other parts is weak.
•    Enormous amounts of liquidity and financing at attractive rates = lots of competition which is destructive.
•    Any place to use his grave dancer status? Energy sector. Haven’t seen all of the ramifications. Banks are just starting to redo their lines, and twill see the security they had wasn’t their anymore.
•    Most attractive at the moment.
•    You have to assume oil prices aren’t going to zero but you don’t need to bet that they go $70, don’t need that to win.
•    Looking for forced sellers – keep drilling or jettison midstream assets? Might find the midstream assets attractive (PARR)
•    Brazil? Went into Brazil early created a couple significant companies sold all buy one at higher prices. Brazil 180MM people, still growing although slowing.
•    PBR/scandals and political situation is the elephant in the room.
•    Less competition there now.
•    Institutions there are prepared to take discounts to clear the market.
•    Single bank hasn’t taken a single voluntary write off.
•    Thinks rates too low for too long.


Check out the rest of the presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago 2015.

Stan Druckenmiller's Dealbook Conference Interview

Legendary investor/trader Stan Druckenmiller appeared at The New York Times Dealbook conference recently and was interviewed by Andrew Ross Sorking.  They talked about a myriad of topics related to the economy, markets, and investing.

He says he doesn't know what the Federal Reserve's endgame is, but that it's going to end badly.

"Everybody's managing for the short-term now, and that's the problem with the Fed."

Druckenmiller paid special attention to the elevated level of stock buybacks and noted that corporations buyback stock when speculation is rampant.

He says he's anticipating chaos but is "playing around like everybody else.  I'm watching and leery and ready to move."

In equities, he's "working under the assumption that we may have started a primary bear market in July."  He's said he was short value stocks and the Euro.

While it sounds like he covered shorts in the recent volatility, he has also been neutral/long the high beta and high growth plays; companies that he thinks will do well with low/nominal growth.  He pointed out his fondness for Amazon (AMZN) because they're constantly investing in their future and their dominating AWS platform.

On the market in general, he noted "I could see myself getting really bearish.  I can't see myself getting really bullish, so I'm kind of on the sidelines in equities in terms of exposure."

On being a successful investor, Druckenmiller says one of his biggest assets is his openness and ability to change his mind very quickly.

On shorting, he opined that "It's very hard to short stocks.  It sounds great in theory,  it's very difficult because you're basically playing against the house."

Embedded below is the video of Druckenmiller's interview:

Carl Icahn's Dealbook Conference Interview

Activist investor Carl Icahn recently appeared at The New York Times Dealbook Conference.  Andrew Ross Sorkin interviewed him and talked about markets and activist investing.

"The real money I've made over the years is holding companies for 7, 8, or 9 years.  You gotta buy them when nobody wants them, that's the real secret.  It sounds very simple, but it's very hard to do."

On the Fed, he said he agrees with Stanley Druckenmiller and we could be walking into a minefield there.

Icahn also talked about how 'easy money' is affecting companies.  They're buying back tons of stock, inflating their earnings and not in any way showing you the real earnings.  He also noted that certain less attractive companies have been getting access to cheaper capital.

We've highlighted some of Icahn's recent portfolio activity here.

Embedded below is the video of Carl Icahn's Dealbook conference interview:



For more from this conference, be sure to also check out Stan Druckenmiller's interview at the Dealbook conference.

What We're Reading ~ 11/4/15

Evaluating sustainable competitive advantages [Symantaka]

99% of long-term investing is doing nothing; it's the other 1% [Morgan Housel]

The third emotion of investing [Insecurity Analyst]

Daniel Kahneman on intuition and the outside view [Compounding My Interests]

Software is the new oil [AVC]

China's money exodus [Bloomberg]

The unbelievable power of Amazon Web Services [The Atlantic]

How to maximize value of using Finance Twitter [BarbarianCap]

Michael Wolf's predictions on tech and media [Business Insider]

Comcast's weapon to take on wireless giants: Wifi hotspots [Bloomberg]

Interview with Fox's James & Lachlan Murdoch [Hollywood Reporter]

Death rates rising for middle-aged white Americans [NYTimes]

Third Point's Q3 Letter on Baxter, Seven & i Holdings

Dan Loeb's hedge fund firm Third Point in its third quarter letter talks about its investments in Baxter and Seven & i Holdings in Japan.

Regarding Baxter, Third Point has joined the board and helped select the new CEO.  They see an execution and portfolio reshaping story as well as margin expansion.

Third Point also owns Japan's Seven & i Holdings (which owns the 7-11 convenience stores).  They think the company should get rid of its underperforming Ito Yokado stores to become a pureplay on convenience stores.  As with some of their other theses in Japan, they're also looking for the company to eventually focus on capital return via buybacks and dividends.

Embedded below is Third Point's Q3 letter:



We've also highlighted other recent shorting activity from Third Point.

Eminence Capital Ups Pandora Stake

Ricky Sandler's hedge fund firm Eminence Capital has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding shares of Pandora Media (P).  Per the filing, Eminence now owns 5.6% of the company with over 12 million shares.

This is up from the around 10 million shares Eminence owned at the end of the second quarter.  The new filing was made due to activity on October 23rd.

We've highlighted other recent portfolio activity from Eminence here.

Per Google Finance, Pandora is "a provider of Internet radio services. The Company offers personalized experience for each of its listeners wherever and whenever they want to listen to radio on a range of smartphones, tablets, computers and car audio systems, as well as a range of other Internet-connected devices. In addition, Pandora offers local and national advertisers to provide targeted messages to its listeners using a combination of audio, display and video advertisements. The Company has operations in the United States, Australia and New Zealand. The Company enables each of its listeners to create up to 100 personalized stations. Its technologies include Music Genome Project, Comedy Genome Project, Playlist Generating Algorithms, Pandora User Experience, Pandora Mobile Streaming, Automotive Protocol, Pandora API and Tv.pandora.com. The Company provides its services through two models, which include Free Service and Pandora One."

For more from this hedge fund manager, check out Ricky Sandler's appearance on Wall Street Week.

David Tepper's Latest Interview

CNBC's Kelly Evans sat down with David Tepper of Appaloosa Management at Carnegie Mellon University recently.

Tepper said that the ECB and China surprisingly eased but his firm has been cautious on the stock market because of margins and other things.

He said that, "You have to keep some cash on the sidelines, have a diversified portfolio."  He also noted he doesn't love the bond market right now.

On General Motors (GM), Tepper said that it's leveraged to the US economy and they're doing better than other folks in China.  He thinks management is doing a good job there.

Tepper also likes HCA (HCA) adding to the position recently as he thinks it's been hit too hard.

Embedded below is the video of Tepper's interview with CNBC:



If you missed it, be sure to check out Tepper's previous interview from a few months ago where he said he was "not as bullish as I could be."

Viking Global Increases Pioneer Natural Resources Position

Andreas Halvorsen's hedge fund firm Viking Global has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding its position in Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD).  Per the filing, Viking now owns 6% of PXD with over 8.96 million shares

This is up from the 6.39 million shares Viking owned at the end of the second quarter.  The filing was made due to activity on October 20th.

On the other side of this trade of course has been David Einhorn who has been short PXD.

We've highlighted other recent portfolio activity from Viking Global here.

Per Google Finance, Pioneer Natural Resources is "an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in the United States. The Company focuses on production of oil, natural gas liquid (NGLs) and gas through development drilling, production enhancement activities and acquisitions of producing properties. The Company's properties include Spraberry/Wolfcamp oil field located in West Texas; the liquid-rich Eagle Ford Shale field located in South Texas; Raton gas field located in southern Colorado; the West Panhandle gas and liquids field located in the Texas Panhandle, and the Edwards gas field located in South Texas. The Company's operations include well stimulation and hydraulic fracturing. The Company's proved reserves include approximately 89 million Bbls (MMBbl) of oil, 42 MMBbls of NGLs and 317 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas. The Company owns interests in six gas processing plants and eight treating facilities.."

SPO Advisory Trims Resolute Energy Stake

John Scully's investment firm SPO Advisory has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding its position in Resolute Energy (REN).  Per the filing, SPO now owns 19.3% of the company with 14.99 million shares.

This is less than the 17.11 million shares they reported owning at the end of the second quarter.  The filing notes they sold 2 million shares on October 28th at prices between $0.47 and $0.4991.  Shares of REN are down over 59% over the past six months.

Per Google Finance, Resolute Energy Corporation "is an independent oil and gas company. The Company is engaged in the exploitation, development, exploration for and acquisition of oil and gas properties. The Company's asset base consists primarily of properties in Aneth Field located in the Paradox Basin in southeast Utah (the Aneth Field Properties or Aneth Field), the Permian Basin in Texas and southeast New Mexico (the Permian Properties or Permian Basin Properties), and the Powder River and Big Horn Basins in Wyoming (the Wyoming Properties). Approximately 86% of its estimated net proved reserves were oil and approximately 92% were oil and natural gas liquids (NGL). The Company has an interest in gas gathering and compression facilities located within and adjacent to its Aneth Field Properties. Collectively called the Aneth Gas Processing Plant, the facility consists of an active gas compression operation operated by it and a dismantled gas processing facility."

Trian Partners Boosts Pentair & Bank of New York Mellon Stakes

Nelson Peltz's activist investment firm Trian Fund Management has submitted two filings to the SEC recently.

First, per a Form 4 filed with the SEC, Trian Fund Management has increased its stake in Pentair (PNR).  Per the filing, Trian acquired 265,000 shares on October 22nd at weighted average prices of between $54.7093 and $56.2684.

After these buys, Trian now owns over 13.27 million shares of PNR.

Second, per another Form 4, Peltz's firm has purchased 285,000 shares of Bank of New York Mellon (BK) on October 21st at a weighted average price of $41.3396.  After these purchases, Trian now owns over 30.51 million shares of BK.

For more on this fund, we also posted up Trian's presentation on its new stake in General Electric.

Per Google Finance, Bank of New York Mellon is "a provider of financial products and services in domestic and international markets. Through its two principal businesses, Investment Management and Investment Services, it serves institutions, corporations and high net worth individuals. For institutions and corporations, it provides investment management, trust and custody, foreign exchange, fund administration, global collateral services, securities lending, depositary receipts, corporate trust, global payment/cash management, banking services and clearing services. For individuals, it provides mutual funds, separate accounts, wealth management and private banking services. BNY Mellon’s investment management businesses provide investment products in different asset classes and investment styles."

Per the company's website, Pentair is "a global water, fluid, thermal management, and equipment protection partner."

Kingstown Capital Files 13D on Aerojet Rocketdyne

Michael Blitzer's hedge fund firm Kingstown Capital has filed a 13D with the SEC regarding shares of Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD).  Per the filing, Kingstown now owns 5.5% of the company with 3.5 million shares.

This is up slightly from the 3.4 million shares they owned at the end of the second quarter.  The 13D filing contains the standard boilerplate that they purchased shares because they thought it was undervalued and they may talk to management from time to time.

We've posted previous portfolio activity from Kingstown here.

Per Google Finance, Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc., formerly GenCorp, Inc., "is a manufacturer of aerospace and defense products and systems. The Company develops and manufactures propulsion systems for defense and space applications, and armaments for precision tactical and long-range weapon systems applications. It has two operating segments: Aerospace and Defense, and Real Estate. Its Aerospace and Defense segment includes the operations of its subsidiary Aerojet Rocketdyne, Inc., which is engaged in designing, developing and manufacturing aerospace and defense products and systems for the United States Government, including the United States Department of Defense (DoD), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), aerospace and defense prime contractors, as well as portions of the commercial sector. Its real estate segment includes activities of its subsidiary Easton Development Company, LLC related to the re-zoning, entitlement, sale, and leasing of its excess real estate assets."

Broyhill's Research Notes on Time Warner (TWX)

Broyhill Asset Management about a month ago penned research notes on shares of Time Warner (TWX).  With all the talk of the content bundle coming apart, Broyhill sees downside risk around $65-70 per share, while TWX trades around $72 currently.

They take a look at the company's Turner division, Warner Brothers, HBO, and subscriber losses to outline the various risks in the investment.

They conclude that, "Putting it all together, we see $40B of value at Turner even assuming that accelerating subscriber losses result in significant earnings shortfalls and continued multiple compression. We see $20B of value at WB backed by attractive intellectual property and broader distribution driving pricing for content. At almost any reasonable multiple for HBO, we have a very difficult time justifying today’s $80B enterprise value of Time Warner even under very challenging assumptions."

Embedded below are Broyhill's research notes on Time Warner:

Point72's Doug Haynes on Wall Street Week

Point72 Asset Management's President Doug Haynes just appeared on Wall Street Week.  Point72, of course, is Steve Cohen's latest investment vehicle after he closed SAC Capital.  While SAC managed outside money, Point72 emerged as a family office to manage internal assets.

Point72's mission statement is threefold: to be the premier asset management firm (generate highest risk adjusted returns), have the highest ethical standards, and offer the best opportunities for the brightest talent.

Haynes said that the proliferation of hedge funds has really ratcheted up competitiveness in the market and has also increased crowding.  He mentioned they looked at the amount of alpha available and over the last 20 years it's down by half.  He notes, "The cost of being excellent in the industry keeps going up."

We previously linked to how Point72 has started an academy for analysts.

Haynes said that they like the healthcare sector and retail/consumer sectors now.  He notes they're looking at the innovation pieces of the economy.

Embedded below is the video of Haynes' interview on Wall Street Week:



Be sure to also check out Donald Drapkin's appearance on Wall Street Week as well as Ricky Sandler's interview.

Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks: Latest Memo

Oaktree Capital's Chairman Howard Marks has released his latest memo.  It is entitled "Inspiration from the World of Sports" and obviously highlights the parallels between investing and sports.

This is a concept Marks has touched on before, where he talked about how they're similar: both competitive, both quantitative (can see results), meritocracies, team-oriented, and satisfying when you win.

Tiger Management's Julian Robertson has identified competitiveness as one of the top attributes he looks for in hedge fund managers.

Other similarities can be made when comparing poker to investing/trading as well. 

In the end, Marks concludes that one of the key lessons from sports is that, "For most participants, success is likely to lie more dependably in discipline, consistency and minimization of error, rather than in bold strokes - high batting average and an absence of strikeouts, not the occasional, sensational home run."

Embedded below is Marks' latest memo, "Inspiration from the World of Sports:



You can download a .pdf copy here.

For more from this manager, head to Mark's memo on

Glenview Capital Adds To FMC & Tenet Stakes, Trims Flextronics & Community Health Stakes

Larry Robbins' hedge fund firm Glenview Capital has made numerous portfolio adjustments recently.  Below are the details of the various SEC filings they've made.

Increases FMC Position

Glenview has filed a 13G with the SEC on shares of FMC Corporation (FMC).  Per the filing, Glenview now owns 5.01% of the company with over 6.69 million shares.

This is up from the 4.8 million shares they owned at the end of the second quarter.  The filing was made due to activity on October 12th.

Per Google Finance, FMC is "a diversified chemical company. The Company serves agricultural, consumer and industrial markets with solutions, applications and products around the world. The Company operates in three business segments: FMC Agricultural Solutions, FMC Health and Nutrition, and FMC Lithium. The Company's FMC Agricultural Solutions segment develops, markets and sells three classes of crop protection chemicals, which include insecticides, herbicides and fungicides. The FMC Health and Nutrition segment focuses on food, pharmaceutical ingredients, nutraceuticals, personal care and similar markets. The pharmaceutical additives are used for binding, encapsulation and disintegrant applications. The Company's FMC Lithium segment manufactures lithium products."


Reduces Flextronics Exposure

Second, the hedge fund has also filed a Form 4 with the SEC regarding its position in Flextronics (FLX).  Per the filing, Glenview sold 20 million shares at $11.1 on October 22nd.  After this transaction, they still own 55.13 million shares.

Per Google Finance, Flextronics is "a Singapore-based provider of global supply chain solutions. The Company designs, builds, ships and serves packaged electronic products for its original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in various groups. The Company offers a range of design and engineering services that relate to manufacturing (including enclosures, metals, plastic injection molding, precision plastics, machining, and mechanicals), system integration and assembly and test services, materials procurement, inventory management, logistics and after-sales services (including product repair, warranty services, re-manufacturing and maintenance), supply chain management software solutions and component product offerings (including rigid and flexible printed circuit boards and power adapters and chargers)."


Trims Community Health Systems Stake

Third, Larry Robbins' hedge fund has filed a Form 4 with the SEC indicating they've reduced their stake in Community Health Systems (CYH).  Per the filing, Glenview sold 279,074 shares on October 22nd at weighted average prices of $27.7284 and $26.8947 with about a third of the sales occurring at $30.08.

After these sales, Glenview still owns 11.81 million shares of CYH.

Per Google Finance, Community Health Systems is "a hospital company and an operator of acute care hospitals in communities across the United States. The Company provides healthcare services through the hospitals that it owns and operates in non-urban and selected urban markets throughout the United States. It operates in two operating segments: hospital operations and home care agencies operations. Its hospital operations include the Company's acute care hospitals and related healthcare entities that provide inpatient and outpatient healthcare services. Its home care agencies operations provide in-home outpatient care. Services provided through its hospitals and affiliated businesses include general acute care, emergency room, general and specialty surgery, critical care, internal medicine, obstetrics, diagnostic, psychiatric and rehabilitation services. It provides a range of hospital healthcare services and other outpatient services to patients in the communities in which the Company is located.."


Adds to Tenet Healthcare Position

Last, Glenview also increased its holdings of Tenet Healthcare (THC).  Per a Form 4 filed with the SEC, Glenview acquired 500,000 shares total on October 22nd at weighted average prices of $28.8656 and $29.8034.  After these buys, Glenview now owns over 16.99 million shares of THC.  As we've detailed previously, Glenview has previously been out buying THC in October.

Per Google Finance, Tenet Healthcare is "a healthcare services company. The Company operates regionally focused, integrated healthcare delivery networks in large urban and suburban markets. As of December 31, 2014, it operated 80 hospitals, 210 outpatient centers, six health plans and Conifer Health Solutions, LLC (Conifer), which provides healthcare business process services in the areas of revenue cycle management, value-based care and patient communications. It provides operational management for revenue cycle functions, including patient access, health information management, revenue integrity and patient financial services. It also offers communications and engagement solutions to optimize the relationship between providers and patients. Conifer operates a management services business that supports value-based performance through clinical integration, financial risk management and population health management. It has two operating segments: Hospital Operations and other, and Conifer.."

What We're Reading ~ 10/22/15

10 poor investment theses [Irrelevant Investor]

The case against short selling [Long Short Trader]

The five "why's" in problem solving [Wallbuilder]

The danger of 1-year performance numbers [A Wealth of Common Sense]

Latest post from the Valeant (VRX) bear camp [Bronte Capital]

How bad will it get for American Express? [Bloomberg]

China is not collapsing [Project Syndicate]

Kingmakers of China's internet: Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent [WSJ]

A look at wireless tower stocks [Barrons]

Tribune Media shares at a 50% discount [Barrons]

Fossil Group (FOSL): a value stock with temporary problems? [Value & Opportunity]

Netflix is creating a cordless nightmare for traditional media [Institutional Investor]

Light beer gets in touch with serious side [WSJ]

Auto parts retailers' immunity to Amazon drives stock surge [Bloomberg]

Why investors don't fund dating [Andrew Chen]

Robots and us [MIT]

Notes From Lee Ainslie's Talk at Citi Australia Conference

Maverick Capital's founder Lee Ainslie recently presented at the Citi Conference in Australia and below are some notes from the event.

Notes From Lee Ainslie's Talk at Citi Australia Conference 2015

Founded Maverick in 1993
Ex Tiger Cub
Engineering degree
$10bn FUM
Typically 100 positions, 37 investment staff
2/3 of capital is from the profits they have made
Med and Large cap, 75% gross in US
The hedge fund targets 135% long 90% short
Focusses on stock specific risk and portfolio risk
Don't think looking at net long, gross, volatility, beta etc is that useful for them. They used to do that, but it changed 4 yrs ago as it doesn't adequately look at the risk
Constantly stress test portfolio - how would it have performed in 08 or other crises?
Invest in stocks that perform well in bad markets
Very atuned to what their peers are doing so they don’t get caught up in HF loved stocks (MF note: Their Q2 13F as of June 30th shows they held positions in some hedge fund hotels such as VRX (though they were reducing the stake), AGN, CHTR, PCLN, LBTYK, FLT, TDG and a few others ~ but obviously their portfolio might have changed since then)

Focus on 3 factors: Stock dispersion,  intra stock correlation, equity volatility 

Volatility has been subdued for a while now but sudden spike last 2 months
BUT even with spike still below LT avg, can go much higher
Went 49yrs never hit that level from 1939-1988?
10 yrs 1988 - 98
4yrs 98-02
6yrs 02-06
Volatility spikes are becoming more frequent which is good for HF's 

Volatility of other asset classes running above LT avg - 10yr trading 199% of LT avg vol. Oil 126%
Dispersion of stock prices has been very low for 5yr period.. not good for HF's
When dispersion is high HFs outperform 

Stock correlation is very high - meaning stocks reacting more to macro than fundamental
Lower correlations equal better returns
Country policy convergence is widening which is good for HFs.. eg China vs Europe vs US
First time Eu and Fed have had conflicting policy = lower correlation 

They see these headwinds as becoming tailwinds - i.e. vol will go up, dispersion will increase, stock correlation will reduce.
HF's have been poor performers in recent times, but that could change as environment will help them 

HFs reduce gross in high vol but they are such a large % of mkt they all take off gross at same time and hence large moves 

Thinks the 3 key things that happened in fin crisis 
1. Short bans
2. Worries about PB's not having stock available
3. Survival of financial institutions called into question 

All 3 unlikely to happen again in next crisis  

HFs are currently very defensive... good contrarian indicator
Stocks always over-react on down side so need to be in a position to buy the crisis sell offs
Risky stocks sell off first.. avoid them   

Question & Answer Session  

Where has his performance come from?  

In early may net and gross was on their LT avgs
Indicator of changing risk was peaking which set off alarm bells
HFs had high exposure to stocks which don’t perform well in down mkts, so they pulled back risk
Stuck to stocks which outperform in down mkts
Looked at which stocks did well in crisis
Always debate merits of individual positions weekly - 3hr meeting
Also have a top down meeting once a week with chief PMs on where their risks are
Returning money when don't see opportunities builds confidence within investor base.. don't want to be too large and damage performance if you can’t use it. Wont be better off in the long run 

Thoughts on China? 

Cautious view, worse than ppl think. More than half of every listed company delisted themselves(?) The damage to investor confidence in that scenario is bad. Too many rules, scares investors, people dont want to put their money in as risk it gets locked up. Less tools for them now to be reponsive and hence why the devaluing is continuing. They are neutrally postured. Have equal amount long and short in terms of revenue from China. No active bets 

Has he found Australia good for alpha? Best idea here? 

No exposure currently due to Superannuation - so much capital trapped domestically so valuations are too high on global standards. Not short though as doesn't think that is a bubble that will burst soon. (For those unfamiliar: Superannuation is an Australian pension system where employers take 9% of gross wage and it goes into a regulated pension saving on behalf of the employee.  Most of it typically goes into Australian listed shares and property, so for that reason these assets are often overvalued when looking at global multiples so it's harder for offshore funds to invest as they have to pay up.)  

View on liquidity? 

On fixed income side scares him to death. The day Gross left Pimco he tried to make a few changes and it moved treasury markets big time. The % Maverick trade electronically has sky rocketed  

View on ETFs? 

ETFs can be big problem for investors but doesn't worry about them as much as most. Can create dynamics that are not good in the short term but can create opportunities. Some don’t work as advertised under periods of stress. Possibly an opportunity when it happens 

Fed rates? 

Surprised they didn't raise in Sept - unless data weakens will be very surprised if they dont raise in the 1st 6 months next yr. Holds consensus view 

Portfolio weighting US vs Asia? 

Portfolio very heavily weighted to US vs Asia - always been there, better relationships with mgmt etc. Quality of companies very high in US. 3/4 of port is in US which is LT avg (that is % of gross)


For more on this manager, we've posted up some of Maverick Capital's recent activity.

Pennant Capital Reduces Universal Stainless & Alloy Stake

Alan Fournier's hedge fund firm Pennant Capital has filed an amended 13G with the SEC regarding its position in Universal Stainless & Alloy (USAP).  Pennant now owns 9.9% of the company with 703,219 shares. 

This is down from the 1.14 million USAP shares they owned at the end of the second quarter.  The filing was made due to activity on October 21st.

As we've highlighted previously, Pennant has been slowly trimming its USAP stake for a while now and shares are down around 56% over the past six months.

Per Google Finance, Universal Stainless & Alloy "manufactures and markets semi-finished and finished specialty steel products, including stainless steel, nickel alloys, tool steel and certain other alloyed steels. The Company's manufacturing process involves melting, remelting, heat treating, hot and cold rolling, forging, machining and cold drawing of semi-finished and finished specialty steels. The Company's products are sold to service centers, forgers, rerollers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and wire redrawers. The Company also performs conversion services on materials supplied by customers. The Company's products are manufactured in a range of grades and melt qualities, including argon oxygen decarburization (AOD), electro-slag remelted (ESR), vacuum induction melting (VIM) and vacuum-arc remelted (VAR)."