Value Investing Congress Notes: New York 2013

Below are notes from the 2013 Value Investing Congress in New York from both days.  Click the links below for each speaker's presentation:


Value Investing Congress Notes: Both Days


Jeff Ubben (ValueAct): Long Willis Group (WSH)

Jeffrey Smith (Starboard Value): Long Wausau Paper (WPP)

Mick McGuire (Marcato): Long United Rentals (URI)

Cameron & Tyler Winklevoss (Winklevoss Capital): On Bitcoin

Donald Yacktman (Yacktman Funds):  Process & market thoughts 

Alex Roepers (Atlantic Investment Management): His 5 new ideas 

Guy Gottfried (Rational Investment Group): 2 Canadian longs

Michael Castor (Sio Capital): Various healthcare plays

John Mirshekari (Fidelity Investments): 2 investment ideas

Chris Mittleman (Mittleman Brothers): Azteca, CMIC Holdings

Clifton Robbins (Blue Harbour Group): Chico's (CHS)

Mark Boyar (Boyar Value Group):  Long Madison Square Garden (MSG)

Joe Altman & Chris Kyriopoulos (COMPOUND): Long Ascent & Covanta

Harvey Sawikin (Firebird Management): Long Gazprom Neft

Rahul Saraogi (Atyant Capital): On India

Charles de Vaulx (IVA): Market thoughts

Whitney Tilson (Kase Capital): Short K12 (LRN)

Daniel Miller (Gabelli Focus Five): 3 ideas 

Evan Vanderveer & David Shapiro (Vanshap Capital): 2 investment ideas

Carl Chen & Tom Lu (Temple Honor Asia): 2 stock picks

Chris Mayer (Capital & Crisis): Various bank picks

Value Investing Challenge Winner: Long Ashland (ASH)

Value Investing Challenge Runner-Up: Short Life Lock (LOCK)

Joe Altman & Chris Kyriopoulos' Pitch on Ascent Capital & Covanta: Value Investing Congress

We're posting up notes from the 2013 Value Investing Congress in New York.  Next up are Joe Altman & Chris Kyriopoulos of COMPOUND Capital.  They gave a presentation entitled "To Infinity and Beyond" and pitched Ascent Capital Group (ASCMA) and Covanta (CVA)

Joe Altman & Chris Kyriopoulos' Value Investing Congress Presentation

-->

Based in Nashville, $42M in assets.

Ascent Capital Group (ASCMA)

Horizontal acquisition machine of alarm contracts. John Malone owns a bunch. This was a spinoff of Liberty Media. 

$2.5B EV. Sounds like an ADT (ADT) comp. Could be a consolidator.  1/5 the size of ADT, cheaper, less followed.

PT $125: 60% upside in two years. Maybe a cable company will buy them.

Covanta Holdings (CVA)

Garbage incinerators mainly in the northeast. Long term contracts. Has NOLs. Maybe Waste Management buys them?  Cities want to outsource this always in demand business.

Be sure to check out the other presentations from the New York VIC here.

Strategist Jeff Saut: Same Recession "Head Fake" Third Year in a Row

Market strategist Jeff Saut is out with his weekly commentary entitled "Cognitive Dissonance."  He titled his piece as such due to certain economic readings softening while others strengthened.  Saut also addresses how it can often pay to go against the crowd, likening the current market action to that of the past two years.

He argues that just like the past two years, the markets have peaked in May/June and will decline for a few months before surging higher into year-end as no evidence of a recession emerges.

However, Saut isn't sure if the current decline is over yet.  He won't be completely comfortable until the S&P 500 breaks 1366 to the upside and holds it (it's currently around 1358).

In the mean time, he's been recommending slow accumulation of select stocks such as decent dividend payers like Allstate (ALL), Covanta (CVA), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Plum Creek Timber (PCL), Rayonier (RYN) and Stonemor (STON).

And on the topic of cognitive dissonance Saut writes, "in order to reduce the anxiety of decision making, people perceive things in ways that may or may not be logical.  Simply stated, people talk the way they bet.  From a stock market perspective this means that the interpretation of economic and market news varies in direct relationship to the investor's bullish, bearish, or cautious market position."

Embedded below is Jeff Saut's latest commentary where you can read why he thinks this year is just like the past two:



You can download a .pdf copy here.

For more from the strategist, we've also highlighted some of his rules for position sizing as well as profit-taking and loss prevention.