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Recent posts include:

[OAK] Valuation Attractive on Normalized Fee-Related Earnings

[DLTR, DG] Dollar Store Deep Dive

[CHUBA/K] A Skeptical Take

Quick Blurbs [WETF, ALLY, HBI, ANTM, AMZN, LUV, URI, WNC]

Value Investing Congress Notes: New York 2013

Below are notes from the 2013 Value Investing Congress in New York from both days.  Click the links below for each speaker's presentation:


Value Investing Congress Notes: Both Days


Jeff Ubben (ValueAct): Long Willis Group (WSH)

Jeffrey Smith (Starboard Value): Long Wausau Paper (WPP)

Mick McGuire (Marcato): Long United Rentals (URI)

Cameron & Tyler Winklevoss (Winklevoss Capital): On Bitcoin

Donald Yacktman (Yacktman Funds):  Process & market thoughts 

Alex Roepers (Atlantic Investment Management): His 5 new ideas 

Guy Gottfried (Rational Investment Group): 2 Canadian longs

Michael Castor (Sio Capital): Various healthcare plays

John Mirshekari (Fidelity Investments): 2 investment ideas

Chris Mittleman (Mittleman Brothers): Azteca, CMIC Holdings

Clifton Robbins (Blue Harbour Group): Chico's (CHS)

Mark Boyar (Boyar Value Group):  Long Madison Square Garden (MSG)

Joe Altman & Chris Kyriopoulos (COMPOUND): Long Ascent & Covanta

Harvey Sawikin (Firebird Management): Long Gazprom Neft

Rahul Saraogi (Atyant Capital): On India

Charles de Vaulx (IVA): Market thoughts

Whitney Tilson (Kase Capital): Short K12 (LRN)

Daniel Miller (Gabelli Focus Five): 3 ideas 

Evan Vanderveer & David Shapiro (Vanshap Capital): 2 investment ideas

Carl Chen & Tom Lu (Temple Honor Asia): 2 stock picks

Chris Mayer (Capital & Crisis): Various bank picks

Value Investing Challenge Winner: Long Ashland (ASH)

Value Investing Challenge Runner-Up: Short Life Lock (LOCK)

Mick McGuire's Presentation on United Rentals: Value Investing Congress

We're posting up notes from the 2013 Value Investing Congress in New York.  Next up is Mick McGuire of Marcato Capital Management and his presentation was entitled "Don't Buy This Recovery."  He pitched United Rentals (URI).

Mick McGuire's Value Investing Congress Presentation

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United Rentals (URI)

$5.9M market cap, $13B EV

5.6x EBITDA

12.2x P/E

Largest rental co in the world, built as a roll-up.

Fragmented market, they are biggest player but still only 15% of market.  400k unit fleet, original cost is $8B.  Just bought RSC that was 5% of the market, which added to their 10% share.

Pure play on North American Construction and Industrial markets.  NOT exposed to residential construction- that is only 4% of their revenue.  39% is Industrial, 47% is commercial construction.  Have yet to see a robust recovery in commercial construction.

Thesis: cyclical trends are positive, secular trends help, strategic merger creates the industry's only scale player.  Good capital structure, attractive valuation.  6.8% FCF yield, 12.2x P/E.  Says synergies, rides the cycle.  PT implies 72% appreciation.

Risks:  cycle.  How robust the recovery is.  Also, company could lose capital discipline and overspends on growth CAPEX.  They own 4.7% of the company and wield influence on CAPEX.  

MarketFolly note: URI was featured in the equity analysis section of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter last year and is up 39% since then.

Q&A: 

On Sotheby's (BID):  How is the board reacting to their proposals?

"We've had a good dialogue so far."  

Be sure to check out the other presentations from the New York VIC here.

FREE Excerpt From the New Issue of Hedge Fund Wisdom

The brand new Q4 issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter was just released. For a LIMITED TIME ONLY, we're offering a free excerpt from the new issue.

Included in this free 16-page excerpt:

- See the Latest Portfolios From: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Seth Klarman's Baupost Group, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, & Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors

- Equity Analysis of United Rentals (URI)

To receive your FREE excerpt from the new issue, please click here to download.


We've also embedded the excerpt below:

Roberto Mignone's Bridger Management Buys More United Rentals (URI)

In a 13G filed with the SEC, Roberto Mignone's hedge fund Bridger Management has disclosed a 5.2% ownership stake in United Rentals (URI) with 3,241,704 shares.

This marks a 60% increase in their position size since the end of the second quarter. Bridger Management now owns just over 3.2 million shares of URI due to portfolio activity on August 8th.

Per Google Finance, United Rentals "is an equipment rental company and its network consists of 531 rental locations in the United States and Canada. United Rentals offers approximately 2,900 classes of equipment for rent to customers that include construction and industrial companies, manufacturers, utilities, municipalities, homeowners and government entities."

To see the rest of this hedge fund's investments, head to the brand new issue of our premium newsletter.