What We're Reading ~ 11/16/16

Thinking strategically: the competitive edge in business, politics, and everyday life [Dixit]

Is value investing broken? [Gannon on Investing]

Understanding the art of doing nothing [Pragmatic Capitalism]

India's demonetization - what's next? [Marginal Revolution]

How to find the most persistently profitable companies [Gannon on Investing]

How investors develop bad habits [A Wealth of Common Sense]

On overconfidence and the scout mindset [Abnormal Returns] 

A pitch on American Tower (AMT) [Broad Run]

Inside Intel's race to build a new reality [Techcrunch]

In-depth interview with Liberty's John Malone [CNBC]

Interview with Michael Mauboussin [Motley Fool]

JD.com's Richard Liu takes on Alibaba in cutthroat contest for Chinese consumers [Forbes]

Guide to stocks potentially impacted by a Trump presidency [StreetInsider]

How your brain decides without you [Nautilus]

What We're Reading ~ 10/12/16

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't [Nate Silver]

Shiller's powerful market indicator is sending a false signal [WSJ]

The consequences of risk taking [A Wealth of Common Sense]

A look at DaVita Healthcare Partners (DVA) [Rational Walk]

The AI revolution: why you need to learn about deep learning [Fortune]

What does Sam Zell know that Wall St doesn't? [Horizon Kinetics]

Profile of UK fund manager Neil Woodford [Bloomberg]

Interview with T-Mobile's CEO John Legere [Business Insider]

Liberty Media: better than Berkshire [Barrons]

The auto industry's real challenge [Strategy Business]

Mars cashes out Warren Buffett to take control of Wrigley [NYTimes]

Decoding Amazon's fashion ambitions [Business of Fashion]

How eBay's CEO plans to take on Amazon [Bloomberg]

Knowing when to break your own rules [A Wealth of Common Sense]

Why the cost of living is poised to plummet over the next 20 years [Singularity Hub]

What We're Reading ~ 9/21/16

But What If We're Wrong?: Thinking About the Present As If It Were the Past [Klosterman]

Profile of Alphabet's CFO Ruth Porat [Fortune]

The third transportation revolution [Lyft's CEO]

Electric vehicles: it's not just about the car [Bloomberg New Energy Finance]

US setting federal ground rules for self-driving car push [Forbes]

Profile of Ulta's CEO Mary Dillon [Fortune]

2016 US mobile app report [comscore]

On the inevitability of everything 'in the cloud' [Digits To Dollars]

8 price action signals every trader should know [Tradecity]

A look at Spanish banks [Exane]

Heavy equipment glut weighs on machine makers [WSJ]

Inside the cannibalistic culture of China's Tencent [Bloomberg]

Q&A with Chase Carey [Formula 1]

How Wells Fargo's high pressure sales culture spiraled out of control [WSJ]

A look through the eyes of beer wholesalers [Beverage World]

AT&T wants to blanket the country with gigabit wi-fi from utility poles [Gizmodo]

What We're Reading ~ 7/22/15

The Emotionally Intelligent Investor [Ravee Mehta]

The smartest man is wild about innovation [Byron Wien]

Decisions under uncertainty [Farnam Street]

What's the biggest risk right now? [A Wealth of Common Sense]

A breakdown of John Malone's empire [Jnvestor]

Video on aluminum and aerospace industry outlook [YouTube]

The supply of equities may soon stop shrinking [Economist]

For eBay, a new chapter begins [Fortune]

A look at Vitec Software Group [Frenzel & Herzing]

Deep analysis on Deere & Co [HVST]

Montier goes to highest cash level since 2008 [FINalternatives]

Are GMOs safe? Yes. The case against them is full of lies [Slate]

Jet.com launches new e-commerce model [USAToday]

Bidding wars return to home market [WSJ]

Capitalist soul rises in Ho Chi Minh City [NYTimes]

On Google's return of Omid Kordestani [Recode]

Notes From Invest For Kids Chicago 2014: Ackman, Zell, Robbins & More

The sixth annual Invest For Kids Chicago just took place and featured hedge fund managers sharing their latest investment ideas to benefit local children's charities (100% of the money raised goes directly to the charities).  Below are links to notes from each speaker's presentation.  Enjoy!


Invest For Kids Chicago 2014 Notes

- Fireside Chat with Bill Ackman (Pershing Square)

- Larry Robbins (Glenview Capital): 4 long ideas

- Sam Zell's Fireside Chat 

- Mason Hawkins (Southeastern Asset Management): long Level 3 Communications 

- Wally Weitz (Weitz Investment Management): long Liberty Media

- Steve Kuhn (Pine River Capital): On Japan

- Nehal Chopra (Tiger Ratan Capital): long Actavis and Charter Communications

- Jonathan Kolatch (Redwood Capital): Puerto Rico Power Authority

- Mike Wilkins (Kingsford Capital): On Short Selling

- Emerging Managers: Nancy Prial (Essex) long iCAD

- Emerging Managers: Tim Hurd (Blue Spruce) long BlackRock 

Wally Weitz Long Liberty Media: Invest For Kids Chicago

We're posting up notes from Invest For Kids Chicago 2014.  Next up is Wally Weitz of Weitz Investment Management who pitched long Liberty Media.


Wally Weitz's Invest For Kids Chicago Presentation

Idea: Liberty Media 

•    Split up yesterday when split into two parts. Liked them together or separate. Cheap due to the complexity of Liberty.
•    Weitz are value investors in the Buffett mold, think like business owner, IV is the discounted value of cash flow.
•    Think of it as an investment company built to evolve over time.
•    All Liberty companies follow the same game plan. Generate FCF, maintain appropriate leverage, buyback shares and sell in a tax efficient manner.
•    Like the main components of Liberty Media/Broadband (Siri/CHTR). Both are subscription businesses.
•    Liberty Broadband (LBRDA / K) owns ~26% of Charter and is doing a rights offering to raise cash. Trades for $50, think Broadband is worth $58 per share. If you like CHTR, this is a cheap way to own it.
•    Liberty Media you get extra bonuses (hidden assets/options). They won a court case with Vivendi and Vivendi owns them roughly ~$3 per share (might take time), and the Atlanta Braves. Thinks it could be worth more than the ~$600MM current price.
•    Own 27% of Live Nation, which owns ticketmaster which spent years going over a tech overhaul that improves margins.
•    Broadband owns Charter shares, cash and Time Warner Cable shares. Also the opportunity for Malone to buy other cable subscribers outside of CHTR and then sell it into a parent company through a reverse Morris trust (did this with Direct TV). Always optionality. Malone always has multiple plans.

Weitz was also recently interviewed in the latest issue of Graham & Doddsville.


Be sure to check out the rest of the hedge fund presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago here.

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 10/15/14

Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values [Lawrence Cunningham]

On spectrum value and a case for Verizon [Bronte Capital]

Importance of ROIC: A glance at the last 42 years of Wells Fargo [Base Hit Investing]

Building the perfect investor [Millennial Invest]

A look at the potential future for the cable industry [GlennChan]

Pay TV's new worry: 'shaving' the cord [WSJ]

Six figure incomes - and facing financial ruin [WSJ]

T-Mobile's stock slump offers buying opportunity [Yahoo]

On how Buffett's portfolio managers are faring [Fortune]

Why millennials are shunning cars [Washington Post]

The freelance economy and word of mouth [HBR]

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 7/30/14

Bill Gates calls this "the best business book I've ever read" [John Brooks]

6 signs of a good investment process [Clear Eyes Investing]

Rethinking buybacks [CFO]

On Demand Media and Rightside [Buyside Notes]

Why media mergers limit more than competition [NYTimes]

Interview with Liberty Global's Mike Fries & John Malone [WSJ]

On the Liberty Broadband spinoff [Glenn Chan]

Online corporate finance and valuation classes [Aswath Damodaran]

Presentation on Visa: great company at fair price [ValueWalk]

A pitch on Future Bright Holdings [Red Corner]

Investors rush into student loans [CNN Money]

What We're Reading ~ 4/30/14

Why it's hard to win in investing [Aleph Blog]

On the flaws of human intuition [Abnormal Returns]

The importance of pricing power [Base Hit Investing]

The greatest predictor of future market returns [Philosophical Economics]

Google: The untold story of Larry Page's incredible comeback [Business Insider]

Jim Grant's case against Valeant Pharmaceuticals [Business in Canada]

An updated pitch on AIG [Barrons]

A look at Liberty Media [Weitz Investments]

Michael Kors and Kate Spade go head to head [CNBC]

Why the housing market is stalling the economy [NYTimes]

On China's economy [Economist]

Solar power burns old utilities' business models [Daily Beast]

On tech investing [Dasan]

Spain: where deflation becomes good news for headline GDP [Fistful of Euros]

Reining in predatory schools [NYTimes]

Joe Nocera on Warren Buffett [NYTimes]

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 2/5/13

M&A world: stacks of corporate cash looking for deals [All About Alpha]

Taking money off the table to diversify emotionally [Abnormal Returns]

Looking at annual trends in shareholder activism [Activist Insight]

Observations of individual stock returns 1983-2006 [Longboard]

Time Warner breaks out HBO results [Barrons]

Will Valeant overdose on acquisitions? [Herb Greenberg]

FCC chief tells Sprint chair he is skeptical of T-Mobile deal [Reuters]

Cable TV mogul looks to add Formula 1 to sports bag [NYPost]

Taking a look at Kinder Morgan [Glenn Chan]

Did Google really lose on its original Motorola deal? [Dealbook]

Nestle looking at selling even more assets? [Reuters]

Top destinations for foreign investment dollars [Business Insider]

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 1/8/14

Investors/entrepreneurs predict trends, stocks & private companies to watch in 2014 [Forbes]

Compilation of what a lot of people learned in 2013 [Reformed Broker]

Individual investor stock allocation hits post-crisis high [Pragmatic Capitalism]

The world economy's shifting challenges [George Soros]

The best financial advice I ever got (or gave) [WSJ]

The 2014 buy list from [Crossing Wall Street]

Winners of 2013: boring investors [WSJ]

Why the P/E ratio doesn't always matter but cash flow is crucial [ValueWalk]

More 2014 predictions from market watchers [Yahoo Finance]

Liberty Media seeks full ownership of Sirius XM [Dealbook]

Billionaire Malone returns to empire building amid cord cutting [Bloomberg]

Hertz eyes sale of equipment rental unit [FT]

Venture Capitalists predict where they'll invest in 2014 [Forbes]

The art of misdirection [TED]

The 'internet of things' could be the next industrial revolution [DenverPost]

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 10/16/13

Being a long-term investor in a short-term world [The Big Picture]

Living in a low return world [Abnormal Returns]

The most important variable governing market prices [Minyanville]

Sears (SHLD) rally belies big worries about the retailer's prospects [Barrons]

In-depth look at Amazon's (AMZN) Jeff Bezos [BusinessWeek]

Pay TV: the future is not written [FT]

Takeaways from Liberty Media's (LMCA) analyst day [StreetInsider]

US cable companies home in on security [Reuters]

Scott Adams' secret to success [WSJ]

Iron Mountain (IRM) drops as Barclays says REIT conversion unlikely [Barrons]

How the Winklevoss twins found Bitcoin [Bloomberg]

Thoughts on Twitter's IPO & a good trade/bad investment [Aswath Damodaran]

Profile of Twitter & Square's Jack Dorsey [NewYorker]

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 6/26/13

10 risks we face right now [TheStreet]

On the Sharpe ratio [Research Puzzle]

Value badly lagging glamour: value premium is now a discount [Greenbackd]

Taking a deeper look at Rosetta Stone (RST) [Investing 501]

On the Fed and interest rates [Aswath Damodaran]

Interview with Liberty Media's (LMCA) John Malone [Denver Business Journal]

If cable is dying, why is it still making so much money? [TheAtlantic]

Nook sales tumble 34%, Barnes & Noble rethinks strategy [CNN Money]

Owens Illinois (OI): Glass bottles lend pop to soda makers [WSJ]

Barron's midyear 2013 roundtable [Barrons]

Why boring stocks beat exciting ones [WSJ]

On the IRS' study of REITs [FT]

Government Accountability Office says airline merger reduces competition (duh) [NYTimes]

On art as an investment [NPR]

Inside story of fraud at Ranbaxy, Indian drug company [Fortune]

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 6/5/13

The new R&D: Repurchases and dividends [Reformed Broker]

A macro update [Micro Fundy]

The long case on Altisource Portfolio Solutions (ASPS) [Seeking Alpha]

A look at Charter Communications (CHTR) [Brooklyn Investor]

Jeff Gundlach: short Chipotle and avoid everything Apple [Covestor]

Beware the hidden costs in tech [Barrons]

A bastardization of the process [Research Puzzle]

Buffett's Berkshire buys small Virginia newspaper [CNBC]

Harvard's Kaplan says to succeed know what you want [Bloomberg]

Mavericks lecture: Liberty Media's (LMCA) John Malone [Youtube]

The power of habit investments [Zen Habits]

Ben Graham's "foolproof method of systematic investment" [Greenbackd]

It's time for objectors of Bank of America's MBS deal to make their case [Reuters]

Prince Alwaleed and the curious case of Kingdom Holding Stock [Forbes]

An 18-minute plan for managing your day [Harvard Business Review]

On money and happiness [Harvard Gazette]

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 4/17/13

A new site aggregating conference call transcripts [ConferenceCallTranscripts.org]

Intel (INTC): Anatomy of a tech value trap [Reformed Broker]

Why equity long/short investing is not dead [HFIntelligence]

Sticking to a plan in the face of emotional volatility [Abnormal Returns]

Rare interview with Liberty Media's (LMCA) John Malone [CNBC]

Jeremy Grantham on how to play resource scarcity [Advisor.ca]

Aereo has TV networks circling the wagons [NYTimes]

The death of value investing [Business Insider]

Thermo Fisher (TMO) nears deal for Life Technologies (LIFE) [Reuters]

On Dish Network's (DISH) bid for Sprint Nextel (S) [Bloomberg]

Interview with Markel's (MKL) Tom Gayner [GuruFocus]

Diabetes in Mexico: eating themselves to death [The Economist]

Top 5 websites capturing larger share of real estate traffic [Inman]

As big investors emerge, Bitcoin gets ready for close-up [Dealbook]

Lone Pine Capital Adds to TripAdvisor Stake

Steve Mandel's hedge fund firm Lone Pine Capital recently filed a 13G with the SEC during the holidays on shares of TripAdvisor (TRIP).  Per the filing, Lone Pine has revealed a 5% ownership stake in TRIP with 6,523,653 shares.

This marks around a 13% increase in their position size since the end of the third quarter.  The 13G was filed due to portfolio activity on December 12th.

Lone Pine has been busy doing some buying and we've posted up some of their other portfolio activity here.


Liberty Media Also Likes TRIP

It's also worth flagging that John Malone's Liberty Media (LMCA) recently bought a big slug of TripAdvisor as well. Barry Diller sold his stake to Liberty for $62.50 a share (a 40% premium at the time).  This transaction gave Liberty 57% of the company's voting shares.

Per Google Finance, TripAdvisor is "an online travel research company, enabling users to plan and have a trip. TripAdvisor features reviews and advice on hotels, resorts, flights, vacation rentals, vacation packages and travel guides. TripAdvisor’s travel research platform features reviews and opinions from its community of travelers about destinations, accommodations (hotels, bed and breakfasts, specialty lodging and vacation rentals), restaurants and activities worldwide, through its TripAdvisor brand."

Goldman Sachs VIP List: Most Important Stocks To Hedge Funds: Q1 2012

Goldman Sachs is out with its Q1 2012 Hedge Fund Trend Monitor report.  In it, they reveal the latest VIP list of 50 stocks that are most important to hedge funds.  These are the positions that appear most frequently in the top 10 holdings of fundamental focused hedge funds.

This quarter, they've also released a new list of very important short positions to hedge funds which we've posted up as well.

Goldman's VIP list of the most important holdings is accessible on Bloomberg via < GSTHHVIP >.  It has "outperformed the S&P 500 by 55 bp on a quarterly basis since 2001."

Goldman Sachs VIP List (Q1 2012)

Stock: Number of funds with stock as top 10 holding

1. Apple (AAPL): 106
2. Google (GOOG): 73
3. Express Scripts (ESRX): 56
4. Microsoft (MSFT): 46
5. Qualcomm (QCOM): 38
6. Citigroup (C): 31
7. General Motors (GM): 29
8. Priceline.com (PCLN): 29
9. JPMorgan Chase (JPM): 27
10. Liberty Media (LMCA): 26
11. Delphi Automotive (DLPH): 24
12. BP (BP): 23
13. Pfizer (PFE): 23
14. Tyco (TYC): 22
15. Visa (V): 21
16. Yahoo (YHOO): 21
17. LyondellBasell (LYB): 20
18. Anadarko Petroleum (APC): 19
19. Bank of America (BAC): 17
20. Ford Motor (F): 17
21. WellPoint (WLP): 17
22. American International Group (AIG): 16
23. Charter Communications (CHTR): 16
24. eBay (EBAY): 16
25. Rock-Tenn (RKT): 16


It's no surprise that Apple (AAPL) is the most widely owned top position amongst fundamental hedge funds.  But despite that, Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn argued hedge funds actually have less than 2% of assets in his Ira Sohn conference presentation.  We've also posted Dan Loeb's thesis on AAPL as he was a big buyer of shares.

Both Tyco and Priceline were featured in the equity analysis section of our Q4 2011 Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter due to heavy ownership by top funds.  TYC is an event-driven play while PCLN is a huge growth and international play.


Here's the rest of Goldman's VIP list:

26. Seagate Technology (STX): 16
27. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): 15
28. Cisco Systems (CSCO): 15
29. Equinix (EQIX): 15
30. Hertz Global (HTZ): 15
31. Liberty Interactive (LINTA): 15
32. Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD): 15
33. Visteon (VC): 15
34. Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX): 15
35. Wells Fargo (WFC): 15
36. Baidu (BIDU): 14
37. Dollar Thrifty (DTG): 14
38. Hess (HES): 14
39. Mastercard (MA): 14
40. News Corp (NWSA): 14
41. Williams Companies (WMB): 14
42. Barrick Gold (ABX): 13
43. CIT Group (CIT): 13
44. Capital One (COF): 13
45. Calpine (CPN): 13
46. Devon Energy (DVN): 13
47. EMC (EMC): 13
48. Hewlett Packard (HPQ): 13
49. Illumina (ILMN): 13
50. Salesforce.com (CRM): 12

Of the above, we've previously highlighted why Passport Capital likes LINTA.  And in the brand new issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter, we've analyzed Equinix (EQIX), a big new position by Philippe Laffont's Coatue Management and John Thaler's JAT Capital.

Some of the stocks on the list are brand new additions as enough hedge funds boosted their positions in Q1: ABX, AIG, BRK.B, COF, CPN, CRM, DVN, EBAY, EMC, EQIX, F, HES, HTZ, ILMN, RKT, WLP.


Be sure to also check out Goldman's brand new list of hedge fund very important short positions.

JANA Partners Discloses Barnes & Noble (BKS) Stake

Barry Rosenstein's event-driven hedge fund JANA Partners filed a Form 3 with the SEC regarding shares of Barnes & Noble (BKS). Per the filing, the hedge fund has revealed almost a 7 million share position in BKS.

This is a brand new position for JANA as they did not own shares at 2011 year-end. BKS was up over 18% today as investors speculated the activist investor would push the company to split up. After all, JANA recently pushed for McGraw-Hill to split up.

However, the hedge fund has only filed a passive 13G with the SEC at this time, disclosing their 11.6% ownership stake in the company. If they were pursuing activism, they would have filed a 13D.

In the Form 3, JANA also disclosed "put options (obligation to buy)" representing 250,000 shares with an exercise date of May 18th, 2012 and a strike price of $13. We've quoted the above from the filing because it's caused a bit of confusion.

In the traditional definition of buying options, puts are the right, but not obligation, to sell shares. They've written "obligation to buy" instead on the Form 3. So, this could mean 1 of 2 things: they either sold the puts or they meant to write "calls (obligation to buy)."

Both are essentially bullish bets so it's just technicalities. We've sent an inquiry to JANA.

If they sold puts, that means they're more than likely willing to buy more shares at the $13 pricepoint. This would be the first time we've ever seen a fund disclose the sale of options, as usually they only disclose when they purchase calls or puts.

And if they actually bought calls, they most likely bought them when they were out of the money (due to the $13 strike). On the big surge today due to the news of JANA's stake, these calls (if that's what they meant) are now in the money. We hope to get clarification from them about this, but either way it seems to be a bullish wager.


BKS Top Holders

This is an interesting shake-up in terms of ownership stakes. Billionaire Ron Burkle owns a sizable stake in BKS, as does John Malone's Liberty Media (LMCA). (Interestingly, JANA also owned a chunk of LMCA shares as of the end of 2011).

Almost a year ago, Liberty made an offer to acquire BKS for $17 per share in cash, but the two eventually settled on BKS selling Liberty $204 million in convertible preferred bonds.

Other top hedge fund holders of BKS on record as of December 31st, 2011 include Balyasney Asset Management and Citadel.

Conversely, Mick McGuire's Marcato Capital had previously disclosed a sizable put position in Barnes & Noble. Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners has also been short BKS.


Bulls Versus Bears

The bulls point to Barnes & Noble's Nook e-reader segment as attractive. Some analysts believed that's what John Malone's company targeted in the first place and others have postured that JANA might push for a split up of the company.

Bears obviously point to the fact that it's no secret physical booksellers are facing heat in the form of a) competition from cheaper prices from Amazon.com (AMZN) and b) the digitilization of the publishing industry as books convert into e-books.

Barnes & Noble's primary brick and mortar competitor in this arena, Border's, filed for bankruptcy. BKS is looking to avoid the same fate and it looks like some investors are eying the e-book segment.

It will be interesting to see what happens given that BKS has been a favorite short of various hedge funds, but you also have potential activists involved (JANA) and potential buyers that have demonstrated their interest (Liberty) on the long side.

For more of our coverage of this hedge fund, head to JANA's presentation on MHP.