On decision regret [A Wealth of Common Sense]
Why competitive advantages die [Collaborative Fund]
Notes from the Wharton restructuring & distressed conference [Reddit]
The case against Google [NYTimes]
Consumer goods: big brands battle with the little guys [FT]
The end of the low volatility regime [13D]
Myths and facts about "risk parity" [FT Alphaville]
Inside Facebook's two years of hell [Wired]
How Softbank, world's biggest tech investor, throws around its cash [WSJ]
Canada's housing market flirts with disaster [FT]
Everything you need to know about 5G [IEEE Spectrum]
Inside T-Mobile's big, brash comeback [Fortune]
Boeing is killing it by squeezing its suppliers [Bloomberg]
From imitation to innovation: how China became a tech superpower [Wired]
Chinese tourists are taking over the earth [Bloomberg]
There's a global race to control batteries - and China is winning [WSJ]
Didi Chuxing took on Uber and won, now it's taking on the world [Wired]
Autonomous cars: no one wants to let Google win the war for maps all over again [Bloomberg]
Dyson bets on electric cars to shakeup industry [FT]
How to succeed in business? Do less [WSJ]
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
What We're Reading ~ 2/28/18
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
What We're Reading ~ 4/26/17
The downside of managing downside risk [Morningstar]
A short guide to short selling [Dead Companies Walking]
James Montier: market fair value is 50% lower [Finanz und Wirtschaft]
On the many price fluctuations items see on online shopping [The Atlantic]
4 things that set successful CEOs apart [Harvard Business Review]
Using Eisenhower boxes to improve productivity [Quartz]
3 ways to build a culture of better decisions [CFA Institute]
Against all odds, the US tobacco industry is rolling in money [WSJ]
Refuting the short thesis on Apple [Bireme Capital]
Sprint said to look beyond T-Mobile for other deal options [Bloomberg]
Losses are the new black [L2 inc]
The unique advantage of equity investment [Fundsmith]
Profile of the founder of Chobani [CBS]
Millennials and credit: are we missing the real story? [FICO]
On being special in investing [Reaction Wheel]
What separates champions from 'almost champions?' [NYMag]
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
What We're Reading ~ 9/23/15
More Than You Know: Finding financial wisdom in unconventional places [Mauboussin]
Fundamentals are only half the story [Reformed Broker]
Masters in business interview with Jason Zweig [The Big Picture]
Full transcript: interview with Chinese President Xi Jinping [WSJ]
Ukraine & Europe: what should be done? [George Soros]
How cable can capture the mobile internet [WSJ]
Steve Wynn plays the China card [Barrons]
Highlighting large price increases on certain drugs [NYTimes]
Notes from Mohnish Pabrai's annual meeting [Frenzel Herzing]
The rent crisis is about to get a lot worse [Bloomberg]
The pace in Mexico's fight against corruption is slowing [FT]
A potential disruptor in the lab testing industry [Inc]
A look at how the Berkshire/Precision Castparts deal came together [Biz Journals]
Apple's iPhone upgrade plan is a gamechanger [Recode]
On the brink of a revolution in smart digital assistants [Wired]
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
What We're Reading ~ 6/17/15
How to judge a business's durability [Gannon & Hoang on Investing]
Make more money by doing less [Abnormal Returns]
Learning to love volatility [Farnam Street]
The struggle to define risk [A Wealth of Common Sense]
Confirmation bias: how intelligent people develop totally incorrect beliefs [PsyBlog]
A look at Heico [Jnvestor]
John Deere: great 'cannibal' or cyclical trap? [Value and Opportunity]
Precision Castparts shares offer a rare bargain [Barrons]
Profile of T-Mobile's John Legere [Fast Company]
US births up after years of decline [AP]
P/E multiples versus (past and future) returns and volatility [EconompicData]
How Hermes' legendary Birkin bag remains dominant [Bloomberg]
A look at Expedia and Dara Khosrowshahi [Barrons]
On tech unicorns [Stratechery]
Andreessen Horowitz: why we're not in the next tech bubble [Fortune]
How Facebook is eating the $140 billion hardware market [Business Insider]
Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Glenview Capital Q4 Letter on McDonald's, T-Mobile, Auto Dealers & More
Larry Robbins' hedge fund firm, Glenview Capital, is out with its fourth quarter letter to investors. Glenview's Opportunity Fund returned 25.25% net in 2014.
In the letter, Robbins outlines his thesis on auto dealers (Group 1 Automotive ~ GPI), Flextronics (FLEX), McDonald's (MCD), PHH (PHH), T-Mobile (TMUS), and pharma roll-up plays like Actavis (ACT) and Endo (ENDP).
Glenview's Q4 Letter Takeaways
On McDonald's (MCD): This is a new stake for Glenview and they feel there's basically 5 ways to make a 'happy meal' to help the company: operational turnaround, SGA rationalization, refranchising, additional leverage, and real estate. They feel this could trade as high as $169 (currently trades around $99.)
On MCD, Robbins writes, "Fundamentally, McDonald’s has a number of characteristics that we look for in good businesses. Approximately 75% of EBITDA is driven by royalties and rent, which is a secure, stable earnings stream free of operating leverage. Food, in general, is a defensive end market, and McDonald’s positioning at the value end of the spectrum provides further insulation from material cyclicality as evidenced by positive same store sales in the U.S. and positive consolidated EPS growth in every year throughout the last recession."
On T-Mobile (TMUS): Glenview has owned this company since 2013 but bought more shares in December 2014. They feel the company has a few positive things going for it to continue its growth: aggressively going after new subscribers, deploying spectrum to address new customers, and seeing positive FCF generation this year.
They also like that the company is a "key strategic asset" and that their parent company Deutsche Telekom is looking to sell. Glenview feels TMUS could either: try to tie-up with Dish Network and their spectrum, seek a sale to a foreign buyer, or again try to merge with Sprint once a new political administration takes office in 2016.
Embedded below is Glenview's Q4 letter:
For more from this hedge fund, yesterday we posted up some more of Glenview's recent portfolio activity.
Thursday, August 7, 2014
What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 8/7/14
The World's 99 Greatest Investors: The Secret of Success [Magnus Angenfelt]
Interview with Michael Mauboussin [Bloomberg]
On finding large gaps between price and value [Base Hit Investing]
In search of the world's best investment advice [AFR]
A look at Lancashire Holdings [WertArt Capital]
Is TJ Maxx the best retail store in the land? [Fortune]
Shoppers are fleeing physical stores for the web [WSJ]
Does Valeant's cost cutting go too far? [Pro Publica]
How AMC Networks could benefit from the urge to merge in TV [QZ]
Sprint drops bid to buy T-Mobile after regulatory resistance [Reuters]
Dish chairman says bid for T-Mobile possible now that Sprint backs off [Reuters]
Wednesday, February 5, 2014
What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 2/5/13
M&A world: stacks of corporate cash looking for deals [All About Alpha]
Taking money off the table to diversify emotionally [Abnormal Returns]
Looking at annual trends in shareholder activism [Activist Insight]
Observations of individual stock returns 1983-2006 [Longboard]
Time Warner breaks out HBO results [Barrons]
Will Valeant overdose on acquisitions? [Herb Greenberg]
FCC chief tells Sprint chair he is skeptical of T-Mobile deal [Reuters]
Cable TV mogul looks to add Formula 1 to sports bag [NYPost]
Taking a look at Kinder Morgan [Glenn Chan]
Did Google really lose on its original Motorola deal? [Dealbook]
Nestle looking at selling even more assets? [Reuters]
Top destinations for foreign investment dollars [Business Insider]
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 1/29/13
On position sizing in long/short equity hedge funds [Aleph Blog]
Report on measuring a company's moat [Credit Suisse]
How to read a 10-K like Warren Buffett [CNBC]
The myth of maximizing shareholder value [Naked Capitalism]
The second most expensive stock market in the world [John Mauldin]
A look at Post Holdings [Brooklyn Investor]
Dow Chemical is no bargain [Capital Observer]
A long pitch on SSD makers [Minyanville]
Sprint met with US government re: possible T-Mobile deal, Justice Dept skeptical [WSJ]
How Vietnam became a coffee giant [BBC]
5 takeaways from the emerging markets rout of 2014 [WSJ]
Visa Europe says end of physical currency a 'reality' [Telegraph]
Apple making a move into mobile payments? [WSJ]
Google and Samsung reach global patent license deal [GigaOm]
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Third Point Q4 Letter: New Positions in Dow Chemical & T-Mobile
Dan Loeb's Third Point Offshore Fund is out with its fourth quarter 2013 letter. In it, they reveal performance of 25.2% for the year.
Third Point's Q4 letter outlines their thesis on Dow Chemical (DOW), now their largest position. They want the company to look into potentially spinning off its petrochemical business and to return capital to shareholders via buyback.
They also detail their thoughts on Ally Financial, a position they've been involved with since 2011 via various plays in the capital structure. They look for the company to complete an IPO after undergoing a massive restructuring.
Lastly, the hedge fund highlights their thesis on Softbank, Sony (SNE) and T-Mobile (TMUS). The latter is a brand new position they established during the company's secondary offering at $25 in November.
Embedded below is Third Point's year-end investor letter:
For more on this hedgie, we've also highlighted Third Point's other activity here.
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Jamie Dinan Likes Airlines, Hertz & Sprint/T-Mobile: Interview
York Capital's James Dinan appeared on CNBC today and talked about his latest market views.
He said they own most of the major airlines and notes these companies are now being run like businesses and can make money even at $95 oil.
He specifically mentioned American Airlines (AAL) and thinks there's great optionality here as they've merged with US Air and will have a great management team. While some of these mergers can be rocky at the start, he thinks the value will be realized. This has been a big hedge fund trade as of late with the likes of David Tepper and Julian Robertson also being involved in many of these names.
Dinan's biggest position is Hertz (HTZ) and he says it's a consolidation play as they'll see cost savings and revenue synergies from the Dollar Thrifty merger as well as fleet rationalization. A few quarters ago, our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter flagged this popular trade and posted a write-up on Avis Budget (CAR), another beneficiary of the consolidation.
York thinks that this environment is great for event-driven investing, especially due to low interest rates. Dinan also sees earnings going up next year and thinks companies will continue to do buybacks. He also said he likes Sprint (S) and T-Mobile (TMUS).
Here are the videos of Dinan's appearance:
Video 1
Video 2
Video 3
Video 4
