What We're Reading ~ 9/23/15

More Than You Know: Finding financial wisdom in unconventional places [Mauboussin]

Fundamentals are only half the story [Reformed Broker]

Masters in business interview with Jason Zweig [The Big Picture]

Full transcript: interview with Chinese President Xi Jinping [WSJ]

Ukraine & Europe: what should be done? [George Soros]

How cable can capture the mobile internet [WSJ]

Steve Wynn plays the China card [Barrons]

Highlighting large price increases on certain drugs [NYTimes]

Notes from Mohnish Pabrai's annual meeting [Frenzel Herzing]

The rent crisis is about to get a lot worse [Bloomberg]

The pace in Mexico's fight against corruption is slowing [FT]

A potential disruptor in the lab testing industry [Inc]

A look at how the Berkshire/Precision Castparts deal came together [Biz Journals]

Apple's iPhone upgrade plan is a gamechanger [Recode]

On the brink of a revolution in smart digital assistants [Wired]

Summary of Warren Buffett's Recent Media Appearances

Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett recently made the media rounds so here's a quick summary.

In his interview with Fox Business, Buffett said that his brick business isn't doing as well as his carpet business.  He also noted that furniture retailing is doing well.  He also said, "The insurance business (GEICO) has been quite good to us over the years, and continues to be."

Regarding oil, Buffett points out a common misperception that his railroad (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) is not as affected as people might think.

When asked if he would raise rates in September if he was on the Federal Reserve, he said he probably wouldn't.

Embedded below is the video of Buffett's interview on Fox Business:





Buffett also talked with CNBC.  There, he said that he bought more IBM (IBM) thus far in the third quarter.

Interestingly, Buffett said that "I'll never go below $20 billion in cash."  This pertains to Berkshire's upcoming purchase of Precision Castparts (PCP) where he'll opt to finance part of the deal with debt in order to maintain that certain cash level.

Buffett also said that on big down days with higher volume in the stock market, Berkshire will be out buying more than usual of certain stocks if for instance they were buying 20% of the volume for that day.  He likes to stay around that level so that he doesn't affect the price too much.

He re-emphasized his focus on 5-10 years from now as he thinks markets will be higher then and that's all that really matters to him.  He isn't concerned with short-term gyrations and isn't about to predict what will happen in the near-term.

On why he bought a bunch of Phillips 66 (PSX), Buffett said, "I had always intended that we would come back in, assuming the price is right.  PSX has no upstream production.  PSX is not a pure refiner, they've got a big chemical division.  We're buying it because we like the company and we like the management very much."

Embedded below is the video of Buffett's interview with CNBC:




Lastly, Buffett also chatted with Bloomberg.  There, he revealed that he doesn't see local TV broadcasting as a growth business.

On the global economy, he noted that, "I think it's unlikely that the world has some great slowdown, but it always can."

He also noted he's bullish on China over its long-term potential.

Embedded below is the video of Buffett's talk with Bloomberg:

Sequoia Fund Investor Day Transcript 2015 (Ruane Cunniff & Goldfarb)

Ruane Cunniff & Goldfarb recently released their Sequoia Fund investor day transcript for 2015.  While the event took place back in May, it's still interesting to get their insight on their investments given their long term focus.

Sequoia Fund's investment management team discussed their thesis and outlook on numerous portfolio companies, including Valeant, Google, Mohawk, Idexx, Fastenal, Rolls Royce, TJX, O'Reilly, and many more.

At the end of the second quarter, Sequoia Fund's top holdings were:

Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX): 28.7% of portfolio
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/B): 10.6%
TJX Companies (TJX): 5%
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY): 4.3%
Fastenal (FAST): 4.2%
MasterCard (MA): 3.2%
Precision Castparts (PCP): 2.7%
Mohawk Industries (MHK): 2.5%
Idexx Laboratories (IDXX): 2.3%
Google (GOOGL): 2% 

This really is an interesting read in its entirety given their candidness about assessing their positions.

Embedded below is Sequoia Fund's investor day transcript for 2015:



You can download a .pdf copy here.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway To Buy Precision Castparts (PCP)

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is set to acquire Precision Castparts (PCP) for $37.2 billion, or around $235 per share. 

Speaking with CNBC, Buffett said that the deal started to come together "about five or so weeks ago."  

Buffett's conglomerate has owned PCP for a while now and was out buying more shares in the first quarter of 2015 as shares continued to slide.  PCP has been hit due to declines in its oil and gas business exposure but the vast majority of its focus is in aerospace and that's undoubtedly what drew Berkshire to the name.

Buffett said that one of his portfolio managers, Todd Combs, spearheaded this as he bought shares for Berkshire.

Talking with CNBC, Buffett said that they'll likely do the majority of the deal with cash, and a little bit of debt.  Berkshire likes to keep around $20 billion in cash on hand, so this big buy means they probably won't do any other large deals for another year.


Other 'Winners' In The Deal?

Berkshire wasn't alone in purchasing PCP shares in Q1 either.  As we flagged in the May issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter, PCP was a consensus new buy with the likes of Third Point, ValueAct Capital, Soroban Capital, and Farallon Capital initiating new positions.

One other very notable fund was out buying a lot of PCP as well: Lou Simpson's SQ Advisors.  Prior to founding SQ, Simpson worked at Berkshire Hathaway.  Of the above managers, he bet the biggest on PCP on a position size weighted basis, given that he allocated almost 10% of his portfolio to PCP shares.

Other big name institutions were out adding to their existing PCP stakes in Q1 as well, such as Ruane Cunniff (Sequoia Fund).

So while these funds may have 'won' in that they see their PCP shares appreciate a decent amount in a short period of time, some might lament the deal a little bit. 

Some managers were also buying in Q3 and Q4 of 2014 when prices were right around where Buffett is buying PCP out now, so their return isn't great.  Other managers might be sad to see PCP disappear from their portfolios as they saw a long-term opportunity for appreciation within the aerospace industry.  And lastly, all of the managers who just bought in Q1 will now see these gains hit by short-term capital gains tax.

What We're Reading ~ 6/17/15

How to judge a business's durability [Gannon & Hoang on Investing]

Make more money by doing less [Abnormal Returns]

Learning to love volatility [Farnam Street]

The struggle to define risk [A Wealth of Common Sense]

Confirmation bias: how intelligent people develop totally incorrect beliefs [PsyBlog]

A look at Heico [Jnvestor]

John Deere: great 'cannibal' or cyclical trap? [Value and Opportunity]

Precision Castparts shares offer a rare bargain [Barrons]

Profile of T-Mobile's John Legere [Fast Company]

US births up after years of decline [AP]

P/E multiples versus (past and future) returns and volatility [EconompicData]

How Hermes' legendary Birkin bag remains dominant [Bloomberg]

A look at Expedia and Dara Khosrowshahi [Barrons]

On tech unicorns [Stratechery]

Andreessen Horowitz: why we're not in the next tech bubble [Fortune]

How Facebook is eating the $140 billion hardware market [Business Insider]

ValueAct Capital Reduces Valeant Pharmaceuticals Stake

Jeff Ubben's activist investment firm ValueAct Capital today released a statement indicating that they've reduced their Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) position:

"ValueAct Capital Management, L.P. announced today that it has sold 4.2 million shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (NYSE: VRX; TSX: VRX) in brokers' transactions on the NYSE.  ValueAct Capital's CEO Jeffrey W. Ubben said: "Mike Pearson and the Valeant team's exceptional performance have once again caused our investment in Valeant to grow in value to well above 20% of our funds' assets, and we are again compelled to reduce our position to rebalance our overall portfolio.  We have owned Valeant shares for over nine years and have sold shares on three previous occasions for the same portfolio management purposes. After this sale, our investment in Valeant will continue to be well in excess of $3.0bn and will be one of the largest investments in our funds. I look forward to continuing to work with Mike and my fellow members of the Board of Directors."

After the sale, ValueAct should still own over 15.1 million shares.  ValueAct was instrumental in bringing Pearson on board as CEO and has benefited greatly.  This has been a consensus hedge fund favorite stock for some time, with Bill Ackman acquiring a VRX stake recently as well.

Valeant also announced a new CFO, Robert Rosiello.  He's a former McKinsey M&A executive and should fit right in given Valeant's acquisitive strategy (Pearson also used to previously work at McKinsey).


Where Does ValueAct Allocate The Proceeds?

The question now becomes: where does ValueAct put this freed up capital to work?  While they could always initiate a new position, or keep it in cash for the time being, it also wouldn't be surprising to see it allocated to some of their existing stakes given where shares of some of these companies currently trade.

The first option is 21st Century Fox (FOX).  They've previously purchased shares numerous times when trading at $32.50 or below and FOX is currently hovering close to those levels.  ValueAct just added to their FOX position in late May and could look to make it even larger after accumulating their position over numerous quarters.  They also just filed an amended 13D on Fox today which shows that their ownership stake is in an LP named Volpe Velox, which is Latin for 'quick fox.'  ValueAct currently owns over 43.5 million shares of FOX, or 5.5% of the company.

CNBC's David Faber today reported that Rupert Murdoch is set to step down as CEO (but retain his role as Executive Chairman) and son James Murdoch will take the helm, with brother Lachlan Murdoch assisting.  It's unclear if this reorganization would occur this year or next and the company's board is set to review succession plans soon.

Faber also notes that COO Chase Carey is supposedly stepping down from his role as well.  There seems to be some uncertainty as to the timing though it's possible Carey will remain with the company in an advisory role.  Some investors will be dismayed by Carey's potential departure or reduction in role.  Others could view it as a potential opportunity for FOX to bid for Time Warner (TWX) again in the future.  With ValueAct's activist involvement behind the scenes here, it will be interesting to see what's next for the company.

Another place ValueAct could allocate their VRX proceeds is to Halliburton (HAL) / Baker Hughes (BHI).  They were out accumulating shares of both during the first quarter and their exposure to both combined was almost $3 billion as of the end of Q1.  Both shares are trading higher than levels in Q1 though, as ValueAct looks for the companies to combine.

A third option for Ubben's firm is Precision Castparts (PCP).  As our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter highlighted, ValueAct initiated a brand new stake in the company during the first quarter.  While this position is much smaller than their others, PCP shares are still currently trading around levels where Ubben's firm could have been buying in Q1.  So they could easily ratchet up their stake around similar prices now.  Not to mention, numerous other prominent investors were buying PCP in Q1, including Berkshire Hathaway, Third Point, Farallon Capital and more.

Another potential option is shares of WESCO (WCC).  ValueAct initiated a small position in the company during the first quarter.  However, shares are trading slightly higher than Q1 levels now.

While the above seem like the most likely to garner incremental capital, ValueAct also owned stakes in the following companies as of the end of Q1 (in descending order of position size): Microsoft (MSFT), CBRE (CBG), Adobe (ADBE), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Willis Group (WSH), Agrium (AGU), Allison Transmission (ALSN), MSCI (MSCI), and Armstrong Worldwide (AWI).

For more on ValueAct, be sure to check out partner Mason Morfit on ValueAct's approach and Microsoft.

What We're Reading ~ 6/10/15

Focus on the key variables of an investment [Base Hit Investing]

Bias from overconfidence [Farnam Street]

Robert Shiller: things are overvalued [Zero Hedge]

The most important concepts in behavioral economics [StockTwits]

A pitch on Charter/Time Warner Cable [Value Venture]

A look at Precision Castparts [Jnvestor]

Why did John Malone invest in Lions Gate? [Punch Card]

On the looming rental crisis in the US [SoberLook]

Weak consumer spending: the canary in the bear market coal mine [Mauldin]

How Tesla will change the world [Wait But Why]

The state of Chinese social media in 2015 [AdAge]

Why China is blowing an equity bubble [FT]

Xiaomi, China's new phone giant, takes aim at world [WSJ]

Coal woes are spreading but it still has fans [Economist]

Caesars: a private equity gamble in Vegas gone wrong [Fortune]

On the truly exceptional business [Value Investing World]

Japan's economy grows faster than estimated [Bloomberg]

Apple is the new king of bonds [Bloomberg]

What Twitter can be [lowercase capital]

Protections for late investors can inflate start-up valuations [NYTimes]

Graham & Doddsville Latest Issue: Interviews With First Eagle, Jericho & More

Columbia Business School is out with the latest edition of its Graham & Doddsville investment newsletter.  This issue features interviews with Matthew McLennan and Kimball Brooker of First Eagle Investment Management, Josh Resnick of Jericho Capital, and Harvey Sawikin of Firebird Management.

Additionally, they talk with Eric Yip and Mark Unferth of Alder Hill Management, and Rolf Heitmeyer of Breithorn Capital.

Lastly, the new issue features student investment pitches of: long Altice, long Fiat Chrysler, long HCA, long Genuine Parts Company, and long Precision Castparts (PCP).

Embedded below is the latest issue of Graham & Doddsville:



Be sure to also check out the previous issue of Graham & Doddsville including an interview with Bill Ackman.

Sequoia Fund Investor Day Transcript 2014

Today we wanted to highlight the transcript from Sequoia Fund's investor day earlier this year.  This is old (6 months ago) but is still worth reading due to the in-depth color they provide on their investments and the fact that they're long-term shareholders so most of the positions still remain in their portfolio.

Positions they talk about include Valeant Pharmaceutical (VRX), Allergan (AGN), Google (GOOGL/GOOG),  Mastercard (MA), TJ Maxx (TJX), Omnicom (OMC), IBM (IBM), Ritchie Brothers (RBA), Fastenal (FAST), Costco (COST), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/B), O'Reilly Auto (ORLY), Rolls Royce (LON:RR), Precision Castparts (PCP), and more.

Embedded below is the Sequoia Fund's Investor Day Transcript: 



You can download a .pdf copy here.

And given their long-term focus, we'd also point you to Sequoia Fund's 2013 investor day transcript as well as Sequoia Fund's 2012 annual letter if you haven't read those either.

Graham & Doddsville Newsletter: Interview With Li Lu (Columbia Business School)

Columbia Business School is out with its Graham & Doddsville investment newsletter for Spring 2013.  It features an interview with Li Lu of Himalaya Capital, a man who was dubbed one of Charlie Munger's favorite investment managers.

This interview is really fantastic as he touches on investment process a lot so we'd recommend reading the whole thing below.  But for those pressed for time, here are the takeaways:


Highlights From Li Lu's Interview

On value investing: "There are few people that switch in between or get it gradually.  They either get it right away or they don't get it at all.  I never really tried anything else.  The first time I heard it, it just made sense; and I heard it from the best."

On defining yourself as an investor:  Lu also touched on how you still have to find your own style of investing that matches your personality.  He says, "The game of investing is a process of discovering: who you are, what you're interested in, what you're good at, what you love to do, then magnifying that until you gain a sizable edge over all the other people."  He also added that, "The only way to gain an edge is through long and hard work."

On why he doesn't short anymore:  He listed 3 reasons:  "Three things about shorting make it a miserable business. On the long side, you have 100% downside but unlimited upside. On the short side, you have 100% upside and unlimited down-side. I do not like that math. Second, the best short has some element of fraud. However, a fraud can be perpetrated for a longtime. Of course you borrow to short, so they could really just wear you down. That’s why I could be 100% right and bankrupt at the same time. But, you know what, you go bankrupt first! Lastly, it screws up your mind. Shorts just grab your mind and take away from the concentrated effort that is required to do proper long investing."

On how he finds ideas: "Ideas come to me from all sources, principally from reading and talking."  What's interesting is he doesn't really talk to other investors that much.  He's more keen on chatting with people running businesses.

On the importance of management teams: "(They) always have a big influence on your success, no matter how good or how bad the business is itself.  Management is always part of the equation of making the company successful, so the quality of management always matters.  But to assess that quality is not always easy."

On decision making:  "I think you want to avoid wrong decisions as much or more than you want to get it approximately right.  If you avoid the wrong decisions, you'll probably come out okay over time."


The issue also features pitches from Columbia Business School MBA students on: Motors Liquidation Company (MTLQU), Precision Castparts (PCP), Hertz (HTZ), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), & Yum Brands (YUM).

Embedded below is the Spring 2013 Graham & Doddsville issue:




You can download a .pdf copy here.

Ruane Cunniff Goldfarb: Sequoia Fund Annual Letter 2012

Catching up on a few more notable 2012 annual letters, we turn next to the Sequoia Fund run by Ruane Cunniff & Goldfarb.  An investment of $10,000 at inception in 1970 has grown to over $2.89 million as of the end of 2012.  They returned 15.68% in 2012.


Key Takeaways

- They currently don't see many compelling investment opportunities.  Began 2012 with 21% cash position, ended the year with 16%

- "In the fourth quarter of 2012, we were modest net sellers of equities for the first time since 2008, in response to specific situations at several of our portfolio holdings."  They exited Target (TGT) and Becton Dickinson (BDX).

- "Valuations for stocks are heavily influenced by interest rates, and particularly by the risk-free rate of return on 10-year and 30-year United States Treasury bonds. Relative to the current return on Treasury Bonds, stocks continue to be quite attractive.However, the current risk-free rate of return is not a product of market forces.  Rather, it is an instrument of Federal Reserve policy."


Top Holdings At 2012 Year-End

1. Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX): 11.6% of assets
2. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): 10.9%
3. TJX (TJX): 7.5%
4. Fastenal (FAST): 5.6%
5. Mohawk Industries (MHK): 4.0%
6. Idexx Laboratories (IDXX): 3.2%
7. Advance Auto Parts (AAP): 3.1%
8. Precision Castparts (PCP): 3.1%
9. Rolls-Royce (LON:RR): 3.0%


Embedded below is Ruane Cunniff's annual letter from the Sequoia Fund where they go into detail about some of their positions and overall market views:




For more on this fund, late last year we posted up why Ruane Cunniff likes Valeant Pharmaceuticals.