Bruce Richards on Navigating the Macro & Interest Rates: Alpha Hedge West Conference

Next up in our series of notes from the Alpha Hedge West Conference is a talk by Bruce Richards of Marathon Asset Management.  He focused on navigating the macro & interest rate environment.


Bruce Richards' Talk at Alpha Hedge West 

 If Yellen is nominated, she'll be a shoe-in.  Very Dove-ish.  QE is worth 150 BPS.  10 year was 4% 5 years ago.  Most of rate exposure likely is over.  Can get to 3.25% or 3.5%.  Thinks Fed won't sell Bond Portfolio.  They'll hold and let it roll off.  Maybe reverse repo.  

Where do you invest?  Invest in equity, deeply discounted assets.  Events and special situations.  Short duration, high yield.  

Avoid long dated fixed income, treasuries, agencies, high grade debt, leveraged fixed income, interest rate sensitive sectors.  If floating rate, still need credit story.  

Macro risk factors:  Interest rate risk, fiscal/ debt ceiling, Syria and Middle East, sluggish growth in emerging markets, US, Euro, China, Japan, Flow of Funds.  

Best Opportunities: Europe, Distressed Corporate, Special Situations / Distressed Bank Asset Sales (NPLs), US Special Situation and Distressed Credit Investments, Structured Credit, Liquid Seasoned Burned Out & Illiquid High Yield, Europe Debt Oppys today like RTC oppy back in 80's.  Will be available next few years.  

Bought a $1.2B pack from a UK bank made of German debt.  84 cents on dollar.  TXU may be biggest non-financial bankruptcy ever.  $48B.  Expect announcement later this year.  Emerging markets are overreacting.  They are at an interim low.  Good hedge funds managers make LIBOR plus 500 BPS.


Be sure to check out the rest of our summary of the Alpha Hedge West Conference.

Jeff Saut, Scott Brown & Art Huprich on Current Economic and Technical Takeaways

Market Strategist Jeff Saut, along with technician Art Huprich and economist Scott Brown have put out an interesting compilation of data/charts entitled 'Gleanings.'  In it, they incorporate economics, fundamentals, technical analysis, and quantitative analysis. 

Overall, they see equity optimism due to the "open-ended central bank's 'put option,' QE3."  Here are some of the macro and technical highlights from what they're seeing:


Key Economic Takeaways

- Fed is targeting mortgage rates and 30-year rates recently hit a generational low (3.38%)

- "Good time to buy a house" helps housing as prices are improving

- Financials have traded higher & they think that continues due to low valuation, balance sheet clean-up, and housing's stabilization

- Inflation-adjusted consumer spending continues to trend at moderate pace

- Aging fleet of autos have supported improving trend in auto sales

- Home sales & construction activity are up double digit percentages since last year

- PCE Price Index is trending below Fed's 2% target (other core inflation measures have been drifting lower as well)

- Economic wildcards: gasoline and the election

- Economic risks: Europe, fiscal cliff, and debt ceiling.  (We recently highlighted Kyle Bass' thoughts on Europe and also presented Ray Dalio's interview on macro topics).


What The Technicals Say

- "Bernanke put" backed by Quantitative Easing

- Favorable 'seasonal' market & election cycle historical trends should backstop any declines into year-end

- Charts suggest having exposure to financials via selective exposure.  (We've noted how many hedge funds have bet on AIG this year).

- Charts are bullish for Homebuilders ETF (XHB) and Home Construction ETF (ITB) over the long-term, though a mid-term pullback would be healthy

- Bullishly configured price trend in S&P Consumer Discretionary sector


Embedded below is their presentation 'Gleanings' full of charts:




For more from Jeff Saut,this week we posted up his commentary examining how many investors are underperforming this year.

Eric Sprott's Latest Commentary: 2012 is Year of the Central Bank

It's been a while since we've covered Eric Sprott and his Canadian firm Sprott Asset Management. He's out with his February 2012 commentary entitled, "Unintended Consequences." In it, Sprott discusses how 2012 is shaping up to be the year of the Central Bank.

He writes,

"There is unfortunately no economic textbook to guide us through these strange times, but common sense suggests we should be extremely wary of the continued maneuvering by central banks. The more central banks print to save the system, the more the system will rely on their printing to stay solvent – and you cannot solve a debt problem with more debt, and you cannot print money without serious repercussions.

The central banks are fueling a growing distrust among the creditor nations that is forcing them to take pre-emptive actions with their currency reserves. Individual investors should take note and follow-suit, because it will be a lot easier to enjoy the “Year of the Central Bank” if you own things that can actually benefit from all their printing, as opposed to things that can only be destroyed by it."

One of the main 'things' he is referencing there is obviously gold. Sprott has long been an advocate of the precious metal and has called gold the ultimate Triple-A asset.

We've also highlighted how Sprott started a physical gold trust (ticker: PHYS) back in 2009 that competes with the popular exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).

Embedded below is Sprott's February 2012 commentary, Unintended Consequences:

Hedge Fund Tracking: Caxton Associates 13F Filing (Bruce Kovner)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here).

Time to continue the Hedge Fund tracking series! If you've missed them, I've already covered Jeffrey Gendell's Tontine Partners here, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital here, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital here, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital here, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital here, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital here, Boone Pickens' BP Capital here, Louis Bacon's Moore Capital Management here, and Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp here. This week, I'm taking a slightly different approach to the hedge fund tracking series. I'm doing so because the 13F SEC filings are filed on a quarterly basis, so these materials are time sensitive and the next ones are due out in November. I stated in my series preface that you need to treat these as a lagging indicator, because that's what they are. The holdings discussed below reflect portfolio holdings as of June 30th, 2008. So, since these forms are so tedious to sort through, I've condensed the rest of the hedge funds I track to summarize their major moves and top holdings.

Additionally, the majority of the rest of the funds I follow are macro funds. And, since 13F filings only detail equity holdings, we're left with a bit of a problem. Macro funds typically employ strategies that encompass many financial markets. Be it commodities, currency, futures, foreign markets.... you name it. So, these funds are much harder to track. Since they are not required to disclose positions held in those markets, we only get to see their equity holdings. But, at the same time, I still find the information useful because many of these funds have numerous large equity positions which give you a broad sense as to what their strategies may be.

So, next in the macro hedge fund tracking series we have Caxton Associates, ran by Bruce Kovner. Taken from Wikipedia, Kovner's bio is as follows: "Kovner's first trade was for $3,000, borrowed against his MasterCard, in soybean futures contracts. Realizing growth to $40,000, he then watched the contract drop to $23,000 before selling. He later claimed that this first, nerve-racking trade taught him the importance of risk management. In his eventual role as a trader under the legendary Michael Marcus at Commodities Corporation (now part of Goldman Sachs), he purportedly made millions and gained widespread respect as an objective and sober trader. This ultimately led to the establishment of his current company, Caxton Associates, in 1983, which today manages over $10 billion in capital and has been closed to new investors since 1992." Year-to-date, Caxton Associates was up 5% as of a few weeks ago, as I wrote in my hedge fund year-to-date performance update.

If you want to hear some insightful thoughts from Bruce Kovner himself, head over to my post on Hedge Fund manager interviews. So, now that we've got a background on Kovner and Caxton Associates, let's take a quick look at his portfolio highlights. Keep in mind that this is merely a brief summary of Caxton's top holdings. Due to the time sensitive nature of the 13F material, I wanted to get this information posted before the next set of filings come out in November.

Top 20 Holdings by % of portfolio
1. Compania Cervecerias Unidas (CCU) - Increased position by 72934%, from 25,000 shares to 18,233,668 shares
2. Electronic Data Systems (EDS) - New Position
3. Activision (ATVI) - New Position
4. Monsanto (MON) - Increased position by 41 %
5. Rockwood Holdings (ROC) - Increased position by 68.8%
6. W-H Energy Services (WHQ) - Increased stake by 195%
7. Occidental (OXY) - Increased stake by 65%
8. ChoicePoint (CPS) - Decreased position by <>
9. DirecTV (DTV) - Decreased stake by 25%
10. W.R. Grace (GRA) - Boosted stake by 8%
11. Qualcomm (QCOM) - Boosted stake by 44.6%
12. Coca Cola (KO) - Decreased position by 12.5%
13. Rural Cellular (RCCC) - Increased stake by 12.4%
14. Research in Motion (RIMM) - Boosted stake by 8.7%
15. Service Corporation (SCI) - Increased position by 32%
16. Nucor (NUE) - Boosted position by 37%
17. (ANST) - New position
18. XTO (XTO) - Boosted stake by 150%
19. Stewart Enterprises (STEI) - Increased position by 12%
20. Gilead (GILD) - Decreased position by 26.7%

Kovner's Caxton Associates definitely disassociate themselves from the rest of the macro pack when it comes to the equity side of their portfolio. While their portfolio does hold typical energy and technology names often seen in other hedge fund portfolios, they also hold seemingly obscure names that I have yet to see pop up in any other funds I track. So, Kovner and his team may have discovered some diamonds in the rough here. In particular, I want to focus on his top holding: Compania Cervecerias Unidas (CCU). In the quarter prior to the filing, he held just 25,000 shares of this name. Then, over this past quarter, he ratcheted up his holdings in the name big time. He increased his position by 72,934%, bringing it all the way up to his firm's top holding, with a market value of over $642 million at the time of the filing. Needless to say, they bought this name with conviction. And, although I've seen numerous other funds buying up shares of Latin & South American beverage companies, this is the first fund I've seen pick up this name. So, definitely keep an eye on it.

Additionally, I want to point out his holdings in Rocwood Holdings (ROC), W-H Energy Services (WHQ), and Service Corporation (SCI). These are three other names I am seeing for the first time amongst the hedge funds I track. And, he was adding across the board to all three names. Caxton added to WHQ the most, increasing their position by 195%.

Now, turning to the 'hedge fund favorite' names that tend to pop up in numerous hedge fund portfolios that I track, we see Caxton holds positions in Qualcomm (QCOM), Research in Motion (RIMM), XTO Energy (XTO), Occidental (OXY), and Gilead (GILD). Caxton was out adding pretty moderately to all these names. OXY and XTO are easily two of the favorite equity energy plays amongst various hedge funds. And, you have to wonder how they affected their portfolio, given the volatile ride energy stocks have seen as of late. Turning to tech, we see that Caxton, like so many other funds, enjoy large positions in both QCOM and RIMM. As I've noted before, QCOM is easily a top five most common equity holding among the hedge funds I track. And, just like energy, technology stocks have been whipsawed around a lot recently. So, although Caxton was out adding this past quarter, we'll have to see if they were still adding to these names come the next 13F filing.

We already knew hedge funds (and macro funds in particular) had a rough July, as I noted here. And, it's easy to see why, with the heavy commodity exposure many of them had. What we don't yet know is how they've rebounded (if at all). Lastly, I just want to re-emphasize that since Caxton is a macro fund, they obviously have the majority of their positions in the commodity, currency, futures, or other markets. But, at the same time, they still have a sizable chunk of money in the equity markets.

Caxton Associates' full 13F filing listing every position can be found at the SEC.

Hedge Fund Tremblant Capital Group Discloses 9% Stake in PharmaNet Development Group (PDGI) in 13G Filing

In a 13G filing with the SEC, Tremblant Capital Group on Tuesday disclosed they own 1,758,311 shares of PDGI - PharmaNet Development Group, (formerly SFBC International). This represents a 9.0% ownership stake in the company. A 13G filing indicates passive ownership. This is a brand new position, as it was nowhere to be found in their most recent 13F filing where they disclosed their complete equity portfolio holdings as of June 30th, 2008. And, if you missed it, you can check out the rest of Tremblant's holdings from that most recent 13F which I analyzed in full here.

Tremblant Capital Group is managed by Bret Barakett. If his last name sounds familiar, its because his brother, Timothy Barakett, manages fellow macro fund Atticus Capital, whom I also track. Taken from their site, Tremblant Capital Group's objective is "to achieve superior risk adjust returns for our investors through our focused and disciplined investment process." Tremblant is a $4.1 billion hedge fund based in New York and is run by Bret Barakett, who is a former portfolio manager at Moore Capital Management (the hedge fund run by the great Louis Bacon, whom I've also tracked here). So, as you can see, despite having a great mind of his own, Barakett has worked with some of the best in the macro game. And, that's why he's worth tracking. But, this year has proven difficult for Bret Barakett (and many other fund managers for that matter). As I noted in one of my hedge fund performance updates, Tremblant was down 8.96% as of the beginning of August.

Taken from Google Finance, PharmaNet Development Group Inc. (PDGI), formerly SFBC International, Inc., "is a global drug development services company providing clinical development services, including consulting, Phase I and bioequivalency clinical studies, and Phase II, III and IV clinical development programs to pharmaceutical, biotechnology, generic drug and medical device companies around the world. The Company conducts its operations in two segments: early stage and late stage clinical development."

You can view the 13G filing at the SEC.

Potash (POT) Poised to Benefit Should Hedge Fund Worries Subside

If you want to understand why Potash (POT) has been such a solid performer over the past year or so, all you have to do is look at simple supply and demand. And, Potash (POT) has done just that in their Market Analysis Report released on August 29th, 2008. They've assembled a slideshow of charts that illustrate the very pricing power they are seeing in their industry. Demand is rising and supply is falling. This industry is easily one of the strongest groups fundamentally right now because of secular trends. But, due to hedge fund redemptions/liquidations and the commodity sell-off, this name has been inexplicably sold off along with any and all energy or commodity related names. In a market where logic and fundamentals have been thrown out the window, it may be best to stand aside and let the chaos pass. But, when/if/should normalcy return to the financial markets, POT is poised to benefit simply because they actually have a strong fundamental story behind them.

Such strong fundamentals have been illustrated with charts extracted from Potash's latest Market Analysis Report:

Firstly, we see Global Grain production and fertilizer use increasing.

(click to enlarge)

Secondly, we see worldwide fertilizer demand growth: "Recognizing that without sufficient potash they cannot raise their yields – no matter how much N and P they apply – farmers have raised their potash consumption an average 5.6% per year for the past five years. This compares to 2.7% for N fertilizer and 3.8% for P. Over the past five-year period cumulative world fertilizer growth has been greater than adding a market the size of the US or India, the second and third largest fertilizer markets."

(click to enlarge)

Thirdly, we see that potash ending inventory has decreased each year for the past 3 years.

(click to enlarge)

Additionally, commentary from their Market Report reads,

"Potash is used on a diverse group of agricultural commodities. Wheat, rice, corn, soybeans and sugar cane consume roughly 50% of the world’s potash. This diversity means that global potash demand is not highly dependent on the market fundamentals for any single crop or growing region. US use of corn for ethanol has grown in recent years but this segment of market accounts for only 2% of world potash consumption. The global potash industry is operating at historically high rates to meet the significant growth in potash demand. With the industry running at or near full capability, world production in 2008 is expected to be limited to an increase of only 2.0-2.5%. This (production) is well below the 5.6% demand growth rate of the past 5 years."

So, simply put, fertilizer demand is outpacing supply.

In addition to the supply/demand equation tilting in Potash's favor, they are also seeing more favorable input costs. Natural Gas is one of the main agricultural input costs. And, as you've witnessed this summer, prices of natural gas have fallen hard 40%. So, this can only further POT's bottom line. And, if for some reason you still need further reassurance that the agriculture boom is still in play, just turn to analyst comments from Morgan Stanley. They say that the selloff in these names is "unfounded" and that they expect peak earnings around 2011. They rate Potash (POT) "Overweight" with a $297 price target (POT is trading around $180 now).

Additionally, as NotableCalls mentions (re: Morgan Stanley analyst comments),

"Fertilizer prices will stay higher for longer: i) A global economic slowdown is unlikely to affect fertilizer demand; ii) US farmers are still earning a ~60% ROIC on fertilizer purchases and are thus unlikely to reduce fertilizer application; iii) Emerging market farmers are very low on the yield response curve (i.e., increased application pays for itself); iv) NPK prices have yet to catch up to commodity prices (i.e., record US farmer profits despite higher NPK prices); and v) They believe capacity increases will simply meet underlying demand rather than flood the market and force lower prices. Valuation extremely compelling: 2009e EV/EBITDA of 2-5x; FCF yields of 10% to 20%. Minimal balance sheet leverage (in some cases none) should allow for substantial share repurchases and dividend payments. POT has the most leverage to potash, the nutrient with the greatest pricing power and barriers to entry."

So, the real dilemma here is trying to decide whether to enter POT at these levels given the market uncertainty. Hedge funds closing their doors like the Ospraie Fund are forced to sell their positions. And, if they are heavily invested in fertilizer/energy/commodity names (as many of them are), you can guess what that means for the stocks. Given the fact that we have seen numerous commodities and macro hedge funds negatively affected by the commodities sell-off, one would have to think that further hedge fund redemptions or liquidations are in store, as I wrote about here. Additionally, Nouriel Roubini seems to think the next step of the crisis will be the de-leveraging of hedge funds. But, it would still be hard to envision a commodities selloff as great in magnitude as the one we recently saw, given the already vast depreciation in equity prices.

Trading at just an 8.37 forward PE, POT is very compelling here. The bulk of the gains come from solid operating margins of 41.29% and return on equity of 37%. They are seeing year over year quarterly revenue growth of 102.30% and year over year quarterly earnings growth of 216.80%, both massive figures to say the least. The only major negatives would be their $2.27 billion in debt, compared to $269 million in cash. But, one could easily argue that since POT is essentially printing cash with their business, that their debt is not worrisome at all. In the end, their debt/equity ratio comes in at around 0.34. Lastly, we see that around 77% of shares are held by institutions. And, among those institutions are numerous hedge funds we track here at Market Folly. Firstly, $10 billion global macro hedge fund Moore Capital Management (ran by Louis Bacon) owns POT, as we noted in our recent hedge fund tracking piece. Additionally, POT is owned by $10 billion Maverick Capital (ran by Lee Ainslie), whose portfolio holdings we analyzed here. And, last, but not least, we also noted that George Soros had been purchasing Potash (POT). Now, I don't believe these funds are in jeopardy of massive hedge fund redemptions/liquidations as I referenced earlier. But, at the same time, anything can happen these days and there are undoubtedly numerous highly leveraged funds out there waiting to explode/de-leverage.

So, we really are at a crossroads here. On one hand, the fundamentals are screaming "buy," as the supply and demand picture only gets further squeezed, since new potash cannot be brought online for years. But, at the same time, you run the inherent risk of POT being sold off ridiculously hard again should a bunch of hedge funds face redemptions or liquidations as many are forecasting. So, the inherent risk here is not company specific, nor sector specific, but rather financial market specific. The fundamentals are in-tact and that's all that matters. But, with some hedge funds teetering on edge, things can swing either way. Value investors and deep fundamentalists will tell you that even if you have to go down through a valley before getting to the mountain top, it's still worth going through for the opportunity. But, given the recent market volatility and unpredictability, exercising some caution can never be a bad thing. If the saying holds true that fundamentals trump all, then buying POT now could payoff large come 2010 and 2011. This must be what it feels like to be a value investor, huh?

Sources: NotableCalls & Potash Market Analysis Report

Donald Coxe Market Thoughts

Donald Coxe of BMO Financial Group (their Global Portfolio Strategist) is out with his Basic Points of September 2008. Donald has repeatedly been right on with his thoughts regarding the macro investment outlook side of things. If for some reason you've never heard of him, then here's your chance to check him out now. The piece in its entirety is linked below (which I highly recommend reading). But, since everyone is pressed for time these days, Prieur du Plessis has done an excellent job of summarizing Don's thoughts. Below is Prieur's summary of Don Coxe's thoughts:

1. The two most important forces in equity markets since July 13th have been powerful strength in financial stocks and pathetic weakness in commodity stocks. Since they have been inversely correlated for more than a year, investors should assume that the commodity stock bear market will continue until the financials roll over. The F&F bailout is merely the second act in a tragedy that has an unknowable number of acts to come.

2. When the financials do roll over, gold and gold mining stocks should move swiftly back into favor. Inflation remains above central bank target levels in the US – and in many other countries across the world. And any return to pronounced weakness among the bank stocks will be strongly bullish for gold.

3. With OPEC’s token production cut failing to impress the markets, oil prices will fall further. It won’t take more than a few days of even 750,000 b/d of production above consumption to drive oil prices down. Conversely, any outbreak of civil strife in Nigeria that affects offshore production could have a sudden upward price impact. We expect oil to trade in a range of roughly $80 a barrel to roughly $130 a barrel next year, but we have no great confidence in that forecast. We are more confident in predicting $150 oil within the next three years, as the next global economic recovery unfolds.

4. Barring an early killing frost, this year’s US corn group will be a barn-buster. What next? Corn is in modest contango for the next two years’ crops. Because contangos are so unusual these days, and because grains have such high producer/consumer participation across the curve, this is to us a sign that farmers and users are believers that high corn prices are here to stay. That means the fertilizer, seed and equipment stocks are cheaper now, relative to forward corn prices, than at almost any time in the past four years.

5. The pullback in oil prices and the dramatic bank rescues should have been enough to send the S&P back into bullish mode. It needs to break 1310 on the upside to take away its bearish condition.

6. The real yield on the Treasury 10-year is now a negative 145 bp. On a two-year hold, this means there could be more endogenous risk in nominal bonds than in most blue-chip non-financial stocks. The rush out of TIPs into Treasurys is doubtless driven by the unwinding of F&F exposures, but the long Treasurys are now seriously overvalued.

7. The biggest near-term upward surprise in commodity prices could be natural gas if (1) the sunspots don’t reappear, and (2) the historic correlations of gas to oil reassert themselves.

8. The Canadian dollar is being hit by the commodity price plunges, deterioration in the trade account, the worsening economic outlook in Central Canada, and the uncertain outlook in the October election. Whether Tories or Liberals win in Ottawa, Canada’s fiscal situation will continue to be superb compared to the US, particularly if Obama wins. We remain very positive on the loonie as an alternative to the greenback.

9. US election campaigns can be excuses for bold acts by foreign adventurers. Although President Bush was a non-person at the Republicans’ Convention after he gave his brief speech by satellite, he’s going to be President for four more months. The world should hope that rogue states think about that before deciding that Washington will be too distracted by the election to do anything about a surprise attack or invasion.

10. We have no clear idea how long it will be before we can look back to today’s prices for commodity stocks and say, “Wow! I wish I’d loaded up then!” We remain certain that day is coming.

A big thank you to Prieur du Plessis over at investmentpostcards.com for presenting such a succinct summary of Coxe's thoughts. And, I highly recommend taking the time to read Mr. Coxe's entire piece as found in his .pdf file, which you can download here. Lastly, another thank you goes out to Commodity News and Mining Stocks for originally posting up the link.

Clarium Capital (Peter Thiel) Down in August: Another Hedge Fund Update

Getting tons of news today so will get right to the point:

"Clarium Capital Management LLC, the $7 billion hedge-fund firm founded by Peter Thiel, fell about 13 percent in August, its biggest monthly loss, as it bet against the U.S. dollar."

"Before August, Clarium's biggest monthly loss was in March 2004 when it fell 11.4 percent, according to an investor letter."

You'll recall I covered Clarium in my hedge fund 13F analysis series here. And, this isn't the first tough month for Clarium. As I posted here, Clarium also was down 6.8% for the month of July. So, year to date, a rough estimate would now put them at +32% year to date. I'm also hearing they're almost completely out of commodities now. So, yet another macro fund gets its ass handed to them, what else is new? Will be interesting to see if Clarium shifts from commodities to equities, as the equity portion of their portfolio is typically minimal at best (and by minimal, I mean ridiculously tiny: 1% or less of total assets under management).

Source: Bloomberg

Citadel Aims to Start $1 Billion Macro Hedge Fund Managed By Kaveh Alamouti

Ahh, the endless cycle of hedge fund start-ups and failures. In contrast to my post earlier post about The Ospraie Fund blowing up here, I bring you news of a new fund emerging onto the scene. Ken Griffin's Citadel Investment Group is set to roll out their latest hedge fund, a $1 billion Global Macro Fund (pending funding, of course). Kaveh Alamouti, former employee of Macro giant Louis Bacon's Moore Capital Mangement, is set to run the fund.

We are slowly starting to see the next segway of "spinoffs" of apprentices from their masters. Years ago, Julian Robertson of Tiger Management helped mold some of the brightest minds on Wall Street, many of whom went on to start their own funds. The 'Tiger Cubs' as they are known, include greats such as John Griffin (Blue Ridge Capital), Stephen Mandel (Lone Pine Capital), Lee Ainslie (Maverick Capital), and Andreas Halvorsen (Viking Global Investors), all of whom I track here on the blog. The same can be said of the Commodities Corporation, which produced the likes of Bruce Kovner (Caxton Associates), Louis Bacon (Moore Capital Management), and Paul Tudor Jones (Tudor Investment Corp).

Now, we are starting to see these former proteges turned legends take on the role of their predecessors as they now watch their own employees/proteges emerge to manage their own funds. It's a beautifully endless cycle. Already, as I wrote about here, David Stemerman left Lone Pine Capital to start up Conatus Capital and Anand Parekh left Citadel to form Highliner Investment Group. And, as mentioned above, Kaveh Alamouti left Moore Capital Management to head up Citadel's new global macro fund. In this new spawning of "offspring," there will undoubtedly be picks of the litter, and then there will be runts. Only time will reveal who of them could possibly become the next Paul Tudor Jones or Julian Robertson. I will be watching with interest as I try to find the rising stars of tomorrow.

Source: Bloomberg

Hedge Fund Tracking: Clarium Capital's 13F (Peter Thiel)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here).

Next up, we have Clarium Capital. Clarium is a $6 billion global macro hedge fund run by Peter Thiel, the co-founder of PayPal. Although they had a rough July (-6.8%), Clarium is still up over 45% year to date. Assets under management have recently ballooned to the highest amount in Clarium's history. It will be interesting to see how effective Clarium will be at deploying this new capital. And, to those who want a little more background on Thiel & his investment style, I first wrote about him here.

Now, to the 13F. I actually hesitated even doing a 13F analysis on Clarium Capital simply because when I say they are a global macro fund, I really mean it. The 13F they filed with the SEC details only the equities held in their portfolio. And, all their equities combined only totaled a little over $93 million. And, considering they have over $6 billion AUM, we have a bit of a problem here. The bulk of their holdings/trades seem to be in the actual commodities, futures, and currency markets themselves. And, the 13F only details equities held. So, I just wanted to point that out to everyone before proceeding further. I still think its interesting to at least see what they hold. But, take it with a grain of salt because the majority of their capital is deployed in other financial instruments/markets.

The following are Clarium Capital's current holdings as of June 30th 2008, as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. I've compared the positions in this most recent 13F to last quarter's 13F and here are the changes they made to their portfolio:

New Positions: (in no particular order)
Wendy's (WEN) 7,400 shares
Pinnacle Air (PNCL) 15,220 shares
Fairfax Financial (FFH) 15,000 shares
Nvidia (NVDA) 18,000 shares
NRG Energy (NRG) 9,776 shares
MFA Mortgage Investments (MFA) 50,000 shares
Marathon Oil (MRO) 10,000 shares
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) 12,000 shares
ITT Corp (ITT) 35,000 shares
Istar Financial (SFI) 99,800 shares
Honeywell (HON) 17,700 shares
Conoco Phillips (COP) 107,900 shares
Chevron (CVX) 6,000 shares
Canadian Superior Energy (SNG) 500,000 shares
Black and Decker (BDK) 23,437 shares
Altria Group (MO) 52,639 shares
Aircastle (AYR) 23,400 shares


Added to:
Frontier Oil (FTO): Increased their position by 1353%
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Increased their position by 302%
CVS Caremark (CVS): Increased their position by 179%
American Express (AXP): Increased their position by 111%
Colgate Palmolive (CL): Increased their position by 77%
Oneok Inc (OKE): Increased their position by 75%
Sothebys (BID): Increased their position by 60%
Nucor (NUE): Increased their position by 49%
Cabot Oil and Gas COG): Increased their position by 42%
Foster Wheeler (FWLT): Increased their position by 22%
Walmart Stores (WMT): Increased their position by 21%
McDonald's (MCD): Increased their position by 14%
Royal Caribbean (RCL): Increased their position by 11%
Hewlett Packard (HPQ): Increased their position by 3%


Reduced Positions:
Mylan (MYL): Decreased their position by 25%
Procter and Gamble (PG): Decreased their position by 75%


Removed Positions (Positions Clarium sold out of completely):
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH)
Western Refining (WNR)
Viropharma (VPHM)
United Technologies (UTX)
McGraw Hill (MHP)
Lowes (LOW)
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Leggett and Platt (LEG)
Heinz (HNZ)
General Motors (GM)
General Dynamics (GD)
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Anheuser Busch (BUD)


Positions with no change:
Schering Plough (SGP)
Burlington Northern (BNI)


Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. Hewlett Packard (HPQ)
2. Conoco Phillips (COP)
3. American Express (AXP)
4. McDonalds (MCD)
5. Burlington Northern (BNI)
6. Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
7. Fairfax Financial (FFH)
8. Foster Wheeler (FWLT)
9. Royal Caribbean (RCL)
10. Frontier Oil (FTO)

---------------------------------------

Breakdown: Clarium's portfolio really looks "plain jane," doesn't it? There's nothing ridiculously exciting going on. It almost reminds me of a portfolio Warren Buffett would put his stamp of approval on. AXP, BNI, COP, and MCD are for the most part just slow and steady names that chug along with consistent returns. Again, this is why I want to reiterate that Clarium takes the majority of their positions in the commodities, futures, or currency markets since they truly are a global macro fund. The equity holdings reported in this SEC filing represent just a small sliver of their assets under management. So, on the equity side of things, Thiel has focused mostly on larger cap names with international exposure.

Clarium is definitely heavily weighted in the energy sector. They brought Conoco Phillips (COP) in as a new holding and bumped it up all the way to their 2nd largest equity position. He was also out adding to his Frontier Oil (FTO) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) positions in a big way. Keep in mind that these holdings were reported as of June 30th, 2008 (ie: Crude Oil hadn't started its rapid descent yet). So, we'll have to see next quarter whether he was building up long term positions in these names, or merely trying to ride the oil wave higher.

Thiel has a large bet on tech, but pretty much solely through Hewlett Packard (HPQ). He added some Nvidia (NVDA), but HPQ is the fund's top equity holding. I can't disagree with this choice, as HPQ has been firing on all cylinders with Mark Hurd really turning the company in the right direction. But, even though the company is performing well, the stock really isn't.

I also noticed that Thiel seems to also be playing the 'pooring of America' theme. His MCD and WMT positions give him exposure to the companies that offer everything on the cheap. But, what surprised me a little bit was his Royal Caribbean (RCL) stake being as large as it is. To me, this translates to a discretionary item since its a cruise/vacation after all. And, with the economy the way it is, you'd think that reservations would be down. But, Thiel obviously sees something here, so it might be worth looking at more in depth.

I also want to point out Thiel's position in American Express (AXP), now his fund's 3rd largest equity position. I'm seeing more and more funds pick up stakes in AXP. For the most part, funds have favored Mastercard (MA) and even Visa (V) for their payment processing business models. Now though, it seems more funds are rotating into AXP to get some credit exposure as well. While I think American Express (AXP) is a well run company and typically has a higher credit grade portfolio, I still question adding this name. The credit exposure will continue to provide headwinds for the company and I'm curious to see what these funds do with this position over time.

Lastly, I just wanted to mention Burlington Northern (BNI). If there is one other common theme amongst hedge fund holdings, it is the rails. No matter how small or large their position, practically everyone has at least some sort of exposure to the rails. For Thiel & Clarium, BNI is their 5th largest equity holding.

You can view Clarium Capital's entire 13F as filed with the SEC here.

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Stay tuned as I continue to detail the portfolio changes of some big name hedge funds. This week I'll be looking at: Lone Pine Capital (Steve Mandel), Maverick Capital (Lee Ainslie), Blue Ridge Capital (John Griffin), and Atticus Capital (Timothy Barakett).

Hedge Fund Tracking: Tremblant Capital's 13F (Bret Barakett)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here)

Now we're really starting to see the 13F filings trickle in. Next up, we have Tremblant Capital Group, managed by Bret Barakett. (If his last name sounds familiar, its because his brother, Timothy Barakett, manages fellow macro fund Atticus Capital, whom I also track). Taken from their site, Tremblant Capital Group's objective is "to achieve superior risk adjust returns for our investors through our focused and disciplined investment process." Tremblant is a $4.1 billion hedge fund based in New York and is run by Bret Barakett, who is a former portfolio manager at Moore Capital Management (the hedge fund run by the great Louis Bacon, whom I also track). So, as you can see, despite having a great mind of his own, Barakett has worked with some of the best in the macro game. And, that's why he's worth following.

The following are Tremblant Capital's current holdings as of June 30th 2008, as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. I've compared the positions in this most recent 13F to last quarter's 13F and here are the changes they made to their portfolio:

New Positions: (in no particular order)
Virgin Media (VMED) 528,856 shares
Shenandoah Telecom (SHEN) 184,124 shares
Petrochina (PTR) 7,016 shares
Mastercard (MA) 137,205 shares
Exide Technologies (XIDE) 211,757 shares
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 963,509 shares
China Petroleum and Chemical (SNP) 9,419 shares
Bare Escentuals (BARE) 322,555 shares


Added to:
Centennial Communications Corp (CYCL). Increased their position by 301%
Hologic (HOLX). Increased their position by 250%
Gafisa (GFA). Increased their position by 120%
Union Pacific (UNP). Increased their position by 100%
American Pub Ed Inc (APEI). Increased their position by 76%
Time Warner (TWX). Increased their position by 74%
Focus Media Holdings (FMCN). Increased their position by 56.6%
Nuance Communications (NUAN). Increased their position by 54%
Visa (V). Increased their position by 40%
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). Increased their position by 40%
Anadigics (ANAD). Increased their position by 38%
Mckesson Corp (MCK). Increased their position by 24%
Cogent Communications (CCOI). Increased their position by 15%
Hughes Communications (HUGH). Increased their position by 14%
NYSE Euronext (NYX). Increased their position by 10%
Melco Pbl Entertainment (MPEL). Increased their position by 7%
Walmart (WMT). Increased their position by 5%
Heathextras (HLEX). Increased their position by 3%


Reduced Positions:
LCA Vision (LCAV). Reduced their position by 95%
Research in Motion (RIMM). Reduced their position by 35%
Apple (AAPL). Reduced their position by 29%
ThermoFisher Scientific (TMO). Reduced their position by 28%
Pharmaceutical Prod Dev (PPDI). Reduced their position by 22%
Inverness Med (IMA). Reduced their position by 21%
CVS Caremark (CVS). Reduced their position by 18%
RedHat (RHT). Reduced their position by 15%
Monster Worldwide (MNST). Reduced their position by 11%
Suntech Power (STP). Reduced their position by 11%
Corning (GLW). Reduced their position by 8%
Qualcomm (QCOM). Reduced their position by 6%
Ntelos Holdings (NTLS). Reduced their position by 1.7%
Commscope (CTV). Reduced their position by 1.5%
Paetec Holding (PAET). Reduced their position by 1%
Pharmanet Dev Group (PDGI). Reduced their position by 0.71%


Removed Positions (Positions Tremblant sold out of completely):
Allscripts Healthcare (MDRX)
America Movil (AMX)
Cenveo (CVO)
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)
Costco (COST)
Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR)
Mercadolibre (MELI)
Priceline (PCLN)
UST Inc (UST)


Positions with no change:
Wyeth (WYE)
SXC Health Solutions (SXCI)
Navisite (NAVI)
Eclipsys Corp (ECLP)
CSX Corp (CSX)
Burlington Northern (BNI)
Advanced Med Optics (EYE)


Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. Qualcomm (QCOM)
2. Visa (V)
3. Apple (AAPL)
4. CVS Caremark (CVS)
5. RedHat (RHT)
6. Hologic (HOLX)
7. NYSE Euronext (NYX)
8. Corning (GLW)
9. Research in Motion (RIMM)
10. Baidu (BIDU)


------------------------------------------

Breakdown: Tremblant's portfolio is big on tech, and rightly so. From March until June (the period of time that passed between the filing of past & present 13F's), tech was on a rampage. So, for them to be taking some profits in those names seems natural. They cut back their AAPL and RIMM by about a third of a position, which classifies as healthy profit taking from a big move in my book. I wouldn't be surprised to see them adding back at cheaper prices what they sold. Noticeably absent from their tech portfolio is GOOG. They have BIDU instead, and a pretty large position at that (its their 10th largest holding). Hedge fund favorites AAPL, RIMM, & QCOM also make up a large part of Tremblant's portfolio overall. All 3 are top 10 portfolio holdings. What else is new?

Speaking of hedge fund favorites, we notice that MA and V make an appearance, with MA just being added this past quarter. They already had a large V stake and appear to be assembling a MA position to go along with it. Many funds seem to prefer MA to V, but not Tremblant. We'll see next quarter if their MA position catches up in size to the massive stake they have in Visa (their 2nd largest holding).

Interesting to see the Brothers Barakett (Bret at Tremblant and Timothy at Atticus) both in the house of pain with NYX. Tremblant added more this quarter and look to be averaging down again and again. I can't blame them though. NYX is a solid company that 'appears' cheap on valuation. But, in this market, nobody seems to care about that. The exchanges should be perfect plays to bet on a market with increased volatility. But, apparently they are not. Instead, they are downward spiraling deathtraps. One other commonality between the Brothers Barakett portfolios is their affection for the rails. UNP BNI and CSX all appear in Tremblants portfolio. UNP is their largest rail holding currently, as they doubled down on their stake this past quarter.

Overall, technology, communications & media, the rails, and medical plays seem to be the name of the game for Tremblant this time around.

Lastly, just wanted to note that they have abandoned America Movil (AMX). This name has been in a steady downtrend in recent months, and it looks like they gave up on the name. Last quarter and in the past in general, AMX was easily one of the most common holdings among the hedge funds I track. As the 13F's continue to come out, we'll have to see if others joined Tremblant in dumping their shares.

Tremblant Capitals' most interesting move(s)? Beefing up their general media & communications technology holdings. They added a variety of names such as CYCL, CCOI, FMCN, TWX, NUAN,VMED.

You can view Tremblant Capital's 13F as filed with the SEC here.

--

Check back in during the coming weeks as I analyze the portfolio changes to numerous big name hedge funds such as Lone Pine Capital (Steve Mandel), Moore Capital Management (Louis Bacon), Tudor Investment Corp (Paul Tudor Jones), Blue Ridge Capital (John Griffin), & many many more.

Hedge Fund Tracking: Tontine Partners (Jeffrey Gendell) 13F

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here)

Well, its time for us to get a little peak at what the big boys have been up to over the past few months. While most 13f's won't come out until later in the week, Jeffrey Gendell's 13F is already out so let's get right to it. If you're unfamiliar with Gendell and his Tontine Partners, then here's what you need to know. Founded 11 years ago, Tontine is a $10 billion fund ran by Jeffrey Gendell. He specializes in macro investing and takes very large, concentrated positions in companies he feels will benefit from those macro themes. Additionally, he will take on an activist role when necessary, to ensure shareholder returns. The fund has posted returns in excess of 100% in both 2003 and 2005.

So, let's get right down to it... what was Jeffrey Gendell up to this past quarter? The following is Tontine Partners' current holdings as of June 30th 2008 as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. I've compared the positions in this most recent 13F to last quarter's 13F and here's what the breakdown looks like:

New Positions: (in no particular order)
Altra Holdings (AIMC) 1,272,832 shares
American Elec Technologies (AETI) 14,899 shares
Argan (AGX) 161,033 shares
DST Sys (DST) 2,233,158 shares
Itron (ITRI) 704,758 shares
Ladish (LDSH) 877,751 shares
Peoples Community Bancorp (PCBI) 90,183
Tetra Tech (TTEK) 3,216,197 shares
Thermadyne Holdings (THMD) 1,152,168 shares
Thomas and Betts (TNB) 5,766,719 shares
YRC Worldwide (YRCW) 2,746,171 shares


Added to:
Chemtura Corp (CEM) increased position by 313%
Satcon Technology (SATC) increased position by 165%
JP MorganChase (JPM) increased position by 153%
LSB Industries (LXU) increased position by 113%
Goldman Sachs (GS) increased position by 109%
Emcor Group (EME) increased position by 70%
US Concrete (RMIX) increased position by 64%
Patrick Industries (PATK) increased position by 49%
Accuride Corp (ACW) increased position by 46%
Tierone Corp (TONE) increased position by 45%
Mastec (MTZ) increased position by 45%
Sterling Financial (STSA) increased position by 39%
Goodyear Tire (GT) increased position by 28%
Sun Micro (JAVA) increased position by 22%
Foster LB Co (FSTR) increased position by 22%
Maxwell Technologies (MXWL) increased position by 16%
KB Home (KBH) increased position by 15%
Beazer Homes (BZH) increased position by 13%
Gentek (GETI) increased position by 11%
Pulte Homes (PHM) increased position by 9%
Elmira Savings Bank (ESBK) increased position by 9%
MI Homes (MHO) increased position by 8%
Merrill Lynch 9MER) increased position by 7%
Brush Engineered Materials (BW) increased position by 6%
Twin Disc (TWIN) increased position by 6%
Synalloy (SYNL) increased position by 5%
Perini (PCR) increased position by 5%
Sun Bancorp (SNBC) increased position by 5%
Toll Bros (TOL) increased position by 3%
Polyone (POL) increased position by 2%
PAB Bankshares (PABK) increased position by 2%
US Airways Group (LCC) increased position by 1%
Tenneco (TEN) increased position by 0.66%
AZZ Inc (AZZ) increased position by 0.60%
QCR Holdings (QCRH) increased position by 0.11%
Preformed Line Products (PLPC) increased position by 0.03%


Reduced Positions:
National Penn (NPBC) reduced by 94%
Astoria Financial (AF) reduced by 90%
Beneficial Mut Bancorp (BNCL) reduced by 90%
Koppers Holdings (KOP) reduced by84%
New York Community Bancorp (NYB) reduced by 78%
Meritage Homes (MTH) reduced by 69%
Citizens Rep Bancorp (CRBC) reduced by 67%
BB and T (MSDXP) reduced by 66%
Community Bk Sys (CBU) reduced by 63%
Georgia Gulf (GGC) reduced by 60%
Firstfed Financial (FED) reduced by 59%
National City (NCC) reduced by 57%
Central Pac Finl Corp (CPF) reduced by 47%
Northwest Bancorp (NWSB) reduced by 45%
Susquehanna Bancshares (SUSQ) reduced by 45%
Powersecure Intl (POWR) reduced by 45%
Amcore (AMFI) reduced by 44%
Citigroup (C) reduced by 43%
Graftech (GTI) reduced by 42%
First Merchants (FRME) reduced by 42%
First St Bancorp (FSNM) reduced by 41%
US Steel (X) reduced by 37%
Ameriserv Financial (ASRV) reduced by 35%
Esmark (ESMK) reduced by 34%
DR Horton (DHI) reduced by 34%
Provident NY Bancorp (PBNY) reduced by 33%
1st Source (SRCE) reduced by 32%
US Lime and Minerals (USLM) reduced by 32%
Associated Banc Corp (ASBC) reduced by 32%
Meta Financial Group (CASH) reduced by 30%
Webster Financial Corp (WBS) reduced by 29%
Ryland Group (RYL) reduced by 29%
Laporte Bancorp (LPSB) reduced by 29%
KBR (KBR) reduced by 27%
Bank of America (BAC) reduced by 26%
TRC (TRR) reduced by 24%
Whitney Holding Corp (WTNY) reduced by 22%
Ameris Bancorp (ABCB) reduced by 22%
Columbus Mckinnon (CMCO) reduced by 21%
AK Steel (AKS) reduced by 18%
United Bankshares Inc (UBSI) reduced by 16%
M And T Bank Corp (MTB) reduced by 15%
Centex (CTX) reduced by 15%
Southern Mo Bancorp (SMBC) reduced by 15%
Downey Financial (DSL) reduced by 12%
Rurban Financial (RBNF) reduced by 12%
Independent Bk Corp Mich (IBCP) reduced by 12%
Colony Bankcorp (CBAN) reduced by 12%
Camco Financial (CAFI) reduced by 11%
North American Energy (NOA) reduced by 11%
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) reduced by 10%
Grupo TMM (TMM) reduced by 9%
URS Corp (URS) reduced by 8%
Champion Enterprises (CHB) reduced by 8%
Ohio Vy Banc Corp (OVBC) reduced by 7%
First Bancshares (FBMS) reduced by 7%
LNB Bancorp (LNBB) reduced by 7%
Metrocorp Bancshares (MCBI) reduced by 6%
Wesbanco (WSBC) reduced by 6%
MB Financial (MBFI) reduced by 5%
TF Financial (THRD) reduced by 5%
Monarch Community Bancorp (MCBF) reduced by 5%
Provident Financial (PROV) reduced by 4%
Shaw Group (SGR) reduced by 4%
Integra Bank Corp (IBNK) reduced by 4$
Oreleans Homebuilders (OHB) reduced by 3%
Tradegar (TG) reduced by 3%
Iberiabank (IBKC) reduced by 3%
Teche Holding (TSH) reduced by 3%
First Financial Svc Corp (FFKY) reduced by 2.5%
Independence Fed Savings Bank (IFSB) reduced by 2%
HMN Financial (HMNF) reduced by 2%
Centrue Financial (TRUE) reduced by 2%
Mid South Bancorp (MSL) reduced by 2%
1st Independence Financial (FIFG) reduced by 2%
Princeton National (PNBC) reduced by 1.5%
Fidelity Bancorp (FSBI) reduced by 1.5%
Lincoln Bancorp (LNCB) reduced by 1.5%
Ameriana Bancorp (ASBI) reduced by 1.4%
Timken (TKR) reduced by 1.2%
CFS Bancorp (CITZ) reduced by 1.11%
MFB Corp (MFBC) reduced by 0.88%
Park Bancorp (PFED) reduced by 0.82%
First Defiance Financial (FDEF) reduced by 0.79%
Central bancorp (CEBK) reduced by 0.72%
Mutualfirst Financial (MFSF) reduced by 0.72%
Hexcel (HXL) reduced by 0.55%
Hawthorn Bancshares (HWBK) reduced by 0.43%
Citizens First Bancorp (CTZN) reduced by 0.4%
River Valley Bancorp (RIVR) reduced by 0.3%
First Keystone Financial (FKFS) reduced by 0.2%
First Banctrust (FBTC) reduced by 0.2%
Northeast Bancorp (NBN) reduced by 0.2%
New Hampshire Thriftbancshares (NHTV) reduced by 0.16%
Community Cap Corp (CPBK) reduced by 0.14%
Parkvale Financial (PVSA) reduced by 0.1%
Capital Bank Corp (CBKN) reduced by 0.1%
Premier Financial Bancorp (PFBI) reduced by 0.1%
HF Financial (HFFC) reduced by 0.1%
Provident Community Bancshares (PCBS) reduced by 0.05%
Southern Community Financial (SCMF) reduced by 0.05%
PVF Capital (PVFC) reduced by 0.01%
LSB Corp (LSBX) reduced by 0.01%


Removed Positions:
Positions Tontine Partners sold out of completely
American International Group (AIG)
Banctrust Financial Group (BTFG)
BCSB Bankcorp (BCSB)
BNC Corp (BNCC)
Capital Corp of the West (CCOW)
Capital One (COF)
Chart Inds Inc (GTLS)
City Hldg Co (CHCO)
Comerica (CMA)
Dime Community Bancshares (DCOM)
FNB Corp (FNBN)
First Niagara Financial (FNG)
Fox Chase Bancorp (FXCB)
Headwaters (HW)
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)
Independent Bk Corp (INDB)
Instituform Technologies (INSU)
K Tron (KTII)
Mainsource Financial Group (MSFG)
MBIA (MBI)
Mercantile Bk Corp (MBWM)
Navigant Consulting (NCI)
Olin Corp (OLN)
Peoples Bancorp Auburn
Peoples Utd Financial (PBCTD)
PFF Bancorp (PFB)
Pinnacle Bankshares (PLE)
PNC Financial Services (PNC)
Powell Industries (POWL)
Quality Distr Inc (QLTY)
Sovereign Bancorp (SOV)
Standex International (SXI)
Superior Bancorp (SUPR)
Team Ag (TISI)
Tetra Technologies (TTI)
Wachovia (WB)
Washington Mutual (WM)
Willow Financial (WFBC)
Yadkin Finl Corp (YAVY)


Positions with no change:
Ada Es Inc (ADES)
Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) - 2 for 1 Stock Split (did not increase holding)
Advanced Energy Inds (AEIS)
Ameron (AMN)
AMR Corp (AAR)
Astec Industries (ASTE)
Badger Meter (BMI)
Baker Michael Corp (BKR)
CCF Holding Co (CCFH)
Ceco Environmental (CECE)
Channell (CHNL)
Comfort Sys (FIX)
Community Cent Bank Corp (CCBD)
Community Shores Bank Corp (CSHB)
Cooperative Bankshares (COOP)
Core Molding Technologies (CMT)
Dearborn Bancorp (DEAR)
Dycom (DY)
Ecology and Environment (EEI)
Enersys (ENS)
Englobal (ENG)
Esco Tecnologies (ESE)
Exide Technologies (XIDE)
Ferro Corp (FOE)
Fidelity Southern (LION)
First community Corp (FCC))
First Fed Northern Michigan Bancorp (FFNM)
First Franklin Corp (FFHS)
Furmanite Corp (FRM)
Gehl (GEHL)
Great Lakes Dredge and Dock (GLDD)
Greenbrier Cos (GBX)
Hardinge (HDNG)
Hawkins (HWKN)
Hopfed Bancorp (HFBC)
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)
Innospec (IOSP)
Insteel (IIIN)
Internet Cap Group (ICGE)
Jacksonville Bancorp (JAXB)
Jefferson Bancshares (JFBI)
KMG Chemicals (KMGB)
Landmark Bancorp (LARK)
LCC Intl (LCCI)
Magnetek (MAG)
Material Sciences (MSC)
Matrix Service Co (MTRX)
MBT Financial (MBTF)
Meadow Vy Corp (MVCO)
Met Pro (MPR)
MFRI (MFRI)
Nacco (NC)
National Technical (NTSC)
North Central Bancshares (FFFD)
Ohio Legacy (OLCB)
Otter Tail (OTTR)
Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina (PEBK)
Perma Fix Environmental (PESI)
Pike Elec (PEC)
Portec Rail (PRPX)
Quanta Services (PWR)
Shiloh (SHLO)
Sifco (SIF)
Smith A O (AOS)
Supreme Industries (STS)
Tower Financial (TOFC)
Trinity Industries (TRN)
United Bancshares (UBOH)
Versar (VSR)
Wabash National (WNC)
Westmoreland Coal (WLB)


Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. X (Top Holding)
2. CLF
3. KBR
4. PWR
5. AKS
6. SPY
7. XIDE
8. SGR
9. TRN
10. FWLT

-----------------------------------------

Breakdown: Tontine Partners' 13F can be summed up in 3 words: Regional Bank Clusterf*ck. He has a ton of them, but they aren't very big positions relative to his whole portfolio. For the most part though, Gendell was selling all his financials, including the regionals. The only major financial plays he has left anyways are smaller positions. And, his only positions of major size in that sector are through calls. So, I'd have to think that he saved himself some serious money by exiting/reducing a number of those regional positions, as they could have really put him in the house of pain. It should be noted that he made large additions to the big banks such as JPM and GS.

The next major trend I noticed in his portfolio was that he is highly levered up with steel holdings. While he did do some position size reducing across a few of his steel names (X, AKS), one still has to wonder how he's faring right now given the recent selloff in steel? Whether he has sold anymore substantial positions is the real question. Because, if he hasn't, the recent drop in steel stocks has undoubtedly affected his portfolio in a negative way. Although he did reduce his position sizes.... he still has MASSIVE stakes in the steel names. After all, the top 2 holdings of his fund (and 3 out of the top 10 holdings) as of June 30th were steel stocks. So, he definitely profited handsomely from these steel names by nearly top-ticking the market, selling huge chunks before the peak in July. But, he's since given back much of these gains, assumming he still holds the steel names. This is actually a very unique situation where his 13F doesn't really help us. These holdings were as of June 30th and that was conveniently around the same time steel stocks started topping out. So, the real action in the steel names has been occuring outside of the time period the 13F covers (ie: the past month and a half). And, he is either taking a lot of pain from these massive steel holdings, or he has been partly responsible for the massive selloff in the steel names. We can only guess at this point. We'll have to wait until the next round of filings to find out what he's been up to, unfortunately. The timing overlap on this situation really prevents us from gaining much insight.

But, from this past quarter, we can take away the fact that Gendell definitely had strong conviction in steel and infrastructure names. After all, practically all of his top 10 holdings are concentrated in those 2 sectors. One other top 10 holding I wanted to touch on though is his #4 holding, Quanta Services (PWR). This chart has been breaking out and I have seen this name popping up more and more around financial sites. Plus, it fits right into his whole infrastructure theme. So, it doesn't surprise me at all to see that Gendell has already been in this name for quite some time. After all, he's a pretty smart guy. (Keep in mind: although some of these top holdings are indeed large stakes, some/many have experienced price appreciation, boosting their % share of the portfolio even more.)

Tontine Partners' most interesting move(s)? Whatever he has done in the past month and a half that we can't see. No joke. Since such a massive allocation of his portfolio was dedicated to steel stocks, his fund's performance has no doubt been affected by whatever decisions he has made recently. If he has been one of the many selling steel names, then he is in great shape. If not, then he's screwed. Us plebeians will have to wait until the next round of 13F's to find out Gendell's steel fate.

13F Source: SEC

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Check back in during the coming weeks as I analyze the portfolio changes to numerous big name hedge funds such as Lone Pine Capital (Steve Mandel), Moore Capital Management (Louis Bacon), Tudor Investment Corp (Paul Tudor Jones), Blue Ridge Capital (John Griffin), & many many more.

Rough July for Macro Funds

Oh, how the fruits of success can come back and force-feed you some humble pie. Many macro strategy hedge funds savored their gains during the first half of the year as their large bets on long energy, short financials paid them off handsomely. July, on the other hand, was a different story. As oil retreated and numerous financials rallied, macro funds took it on the chin.

Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital was -6.8% for the month of July (hat tip JimPunkRockford). But, fanboys will be quick to point out that his fund is still up over 45% year to date.

Philip Falcone's Harbinger Capital was -16% for July (via BusinessWeek) as their large concentrated bets on energy and commodities (specifically Cleveland Cliffs - CLF) blew up in their face. But, once again, fanboys will be quick to point out that they are still up over 23% year to date.

This all when the S&P500 is roughly -14% over the exact same time frame. But, its all relative, right?

Macro Takeaways

Courtesy of Commodity News and Mining Stocks, Salida Capital (a multistrat hedge fund that has seen compounded annual returns in excess of 50%) is out with some very simple macro bullet points that effectively summarize what we're witnessing.

1. The housing crisis in the US is deflationary
2. It will be met with unparalleled monetary and fiscal stimulus
3. The end result will be another round of reflation
4. This will eventually lead to an even more inflationary environment
5. Supply constraints on most commodities will keep long-term prices higher than consensus estimates
6. Hard assets will eventually get a re-rating as their earnings power relative to the overall market is recognized and as investors buy them as an inflation hedge.
- Courtesy Salida Capital Commentary For July 2008