Wednesday, February 22, 2017

What We're Reading ~ 2/22/17

Why we dig in with a long held belief instead of changing our minds [Reformed Broker]

Decision making amid uncertainty: improving your process [CFA Institute]

Inside the Snapchat roadshow [Business Insider]

On Quicken loans, the new mortgage machine [NYTimes]

China's artificial intelligence (A.I.) boom [The Atlantic]

Podcast with Ed Thorp [Meb Faber]

Prem Watsa drops long-held bearish stance on markets [BNN]

On Buffett's new stake in Monsanto (MON) [Bloomberg]

Warren Buffett's honor versus 3G [Lawrence Cunningham]

A look at Expedia (EXPE) [Value and Opportunity]

On owning a stock for five full years [Gannon on Investing]

Mark Cuban's two biggest stock holdings [Benzinga]

Apple: the greatest cash machine in history? [Aswath Damodaran]

Billions the TV show versus real life [The Ringer]

McLaren struck gold making supercars for regular drivers this year [Bloomberg]

Warren Buffett & Bill Gates' Talk at Columbia University 2017

Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett and Microsoft's Bill Gates recently gave a talk at Columbia University.  They chatted about a wide range of topics and did a Q&A session as well.

Embedded below is the video of Warren Buffett & Bill Gates' talk at Columbia:

If you missed it, we also highlighted Buffett & Gates interview with Charlie Rose.  And we've also posted up notes about the new documentary Becoming Warren Buffett.

Charlie Munger Q&A After Daily Journal Meeting 2017

Last week we highlighted Charlie Munger's talk at the Daily Journal annual meeting for 2017.

Someone has also posted videos of Munger's Q&A session after the meeting.  There's 22 short videos in total with a playlist at the bottom.

Here's a few takeaways:

- He always reads 3 or 4 newspapers every morning: WSJ, New York Times, Financial Times, LA Times

- Thinks a single-payer healthcare system would work a lot better

- They're doing a lot of stuff (investment wise) these days that they wouldn't have done in the 'old days.'  Specifically mentioned Apple (AAPL): "It's a very odd thing for us to do.  And obviously we've got no special insights as to how sticky Apple's business is."

-  "I think young people should learn more and shout less."

- "The trouble with real estate is everybody else understands it.  And the people you're competing with specialize in little blocks and they know more about the industry than you do."

- "I think a lot of easy money that comes into finance just ruins practically everything."

- BYD is another stock they never would have done back in his younger day.  Partly he's betting on the horseman there as he's fanatical about his business.

- Amazon's Jeff "Bezos is utterly brilliant and utterly remorselessly ambitious.  I would never bet against Jeff Bezos."

- Interested in the 'agricultural revolution' like gene splicing etc and says the world needs it as we have to get more out of our existing land.

-  "If you haven't prepared (for the opportunity) then you won't seize it."

- "If you run a business where people have to trust your food, you just can't afford to have a scandal." re: Chipotle (CMG). 

- Do you think Walmart (WMT) can turn into Sears (SHLD)?  "Well, not for a long time."

- On the airlines: it's more concentrated (fewer players) and there's no real substitute for air travel.  "I don't regard it as a perfect model."  Considering how the world's changed, they thought it was a decent opportunity... but it's "not a cinch."  "It's a sector bet, not a bet on individual airlines."

- Munger says he read Barrons for 50 years and found 1 investment opportunity... made $80 million on it.  Then gave that money to Li Lu, who turned it into $400-500 million.  Munger's also read Fortune for 60 years but never bought a stock due to it.

- "I don't like to gamble against up odds.  If the odds are against me I just don't play."

- Nowadays it's tough in merger arbitrage as it's too crowded

- On John Malone: he's something of a genius and doesn't like to pay taxes and has been very successful and Munger's just ignored it.  "I've always been troubled by the cable industry."  Munger doesn't like the movie business either.

- Doesn't talk to Ted Weschler and Todd Combs a ton, but some.  "They're both good in their own way and they both love Berkshire and they've both made contributions."  Sounds as though the younger portfolio managers helped Charlie and Warren Buffett think differently about things like the airlines and Apple. 

- "I don't want to be in the bottom 80% of the auto dealerships."

- On 'cloning' in investing: "I do it all the time."  He added, "Of course it's useful."  He talked about the trouble with it is if you pick investors later in their game (i.e. Berkshire Hathaway) you basically inherit their problems of being constrained by size because they have to invest a certain way.  So Munger encouraged younger people to look at slightly younger investors, though admitted it's harder to pick out the right people to follow.

- On mistakes: "We learned a lot vicariously, but also learned a lot from unpleasant experiences. You'll learn." 

Embedded below is the video playlist of Munger's Q&A session after the Daily Journal meeting.  Just let the videos keep playing to see the next one out of the 22 total short clips:

Be sure to also check out Charlie Munger's talk at the Daily Journal annual meeting for 2017 as well.

Top 10 Stocks That Matter Most To Hedge Funds Per Goldman Sachs (Q4 2016)

Goldman Sachs' quarterly hedge fund trend monitor outlines what stocks matter most to hedge funds.  Here's the list as the fourth quarter 2016:

Top 10 Stocks That Matter Most To Hedge Funds: Q4 2016

- Alphabet (GOOGL / GOOG)

- Facebook (FB)

- (AMZN)

- Bank of America (BAC)

- Charter Communications (CHTR)

- Apple (AAPL)

- Microsoft (MSFT)

- Yahoo (YHOO)

- Time Warner (TWX)

- NXP Semiconductor (NXPI)

As you can see, it's quite tech-heavy.   The major exception is Bank of America (BAC), which was a consensus buy in Q4 among hedge funds we track in our newsletter.

For more on what stocks hedge funds have been buying & selling, check out the brand new issue of our premium newsletter that reveals the portfolios of 25 top funds.

Tiger Global Starts Domino's Pizza Stake

Chase Coleman's hedge fund firm Tiger Global has filed a 13G with the SEC regarding shares of Domino's Pizza (DPZ).  Per the filing, they now own 6.2% of the company with 3 million shares.

They started buying in the fourth quarter of 2016 and really ramped up their stake in the new year.  The filing was made due to activity on February 7th.

You can view the rest of Tiger Global's portfolio in the brand new issue of our newsletter.

Per Google Finance, Domino's Pizza is "operates pizza stores at 12,500 locations in over 80 markets. It operates through three segments: domestic stores, international franchise and supply chain. Its Domestic Stores segment consists primarily of its franchise operations, through which it operates network of over 4,820 franchised stores located in the United States. Its International Franchise segment consists of a network of franchised stores in approximately 80 international markets. Its supply chain segment operates approximately 20 regional dough manufacturing and food supply chain centers in the United States; a thin crust manufacturing center; a vegetable processing center, and a center providing equipment and supplies to certain of its domestic and international stores. Its basic menu features pizza products in various sizes and crust types. Its stores also offer oven-baked sandwiches, pasta, bread side items, desserts and soft drink products."

Carl Icahn Takes Bristol-Myers Squibb Stake

Activist investor Carl Icahn has taken a stake in Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) according to The Wall Street Journal.  He apparently sees it as a possible takeover candidate as well.

He's not the only activist involved now, either.  Barry Rosenstein's JANA Partners had been in talks with the company after becoming a shareholder in the fourth quarter of 2016.  As a result, the company added three new board members and also added to its share repurchase program.

Now, apparently Icahn has gotten involved as well.  If his past playbook is any indication, perhaps he pushes the company for a sale?  

You can view the rest of Carl Icahn's portfolio in our just released Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter.

Per Google Finance, Bristol-Myers Squibb is "engaged in the discovery, development, licensing, manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sale of biopharmaceutical products. The Company's pharmaceutical products include chemically synthesized drugs, or small molecules, and products produced from biological processes called biologics. Small molecule drugs are administered orally in the form of a pill or tablet. Biologics are administered to patients through injections or by infusion. It offers products for a range of therapeutic classes, which include virology, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection; oncology; immunoscience; cardiovascular, and neuroscience. Its late-stage investigational compounds that are in Phase III clinical trials include Beclabuvir, BMS-663068 and Prostvac."