Notes From Great Investors Best Ideas Conference (GIBI) Dallas: Einhorn, Pickens, Gabelli

Below are some notes from the 2016 Great Investors Best Ideas (GIBI) conference in Dallas, TX.  It featured prominent investors sharing investment ideas to benefit the Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's research and Vickery Meadow Youth Development Foundation.


Notes From Great Investors Best Ideas (GIBI) Dallas Conference 2016

David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital):  Likes Mylan (MYL), thinks the Epipen situation is overblown relative to the rest of their business as they're mainly in generic drugs.  "So the earnings that we're looking at in 2018 are in the low $6's and we think only about 25 cents of it comes from EpiPen, so you're gonna earn something in the high $5s, excluding EpiPen and the stock's today in the mid $30's."

Contrasted the situation to that of Mallinckrodt (MNK) which bought QuestCor, a formerly highly shorted hedge fund name.  Their Acthar Gel drug has raised prices from $40 in 2001 up to a whopping $40,000 a dose but you don't hear about it as much because less people use it but says they're more exposed to potential health care focus on lowering drug prices given Acthar is a much larger portion of MNK's profit. 

Thinks General Motors (GM) is cheap and can earn its entire market cap before Tesla turns a profit.  Laid it out as follows:  stock could fall 3/4 and still has enough to pay the dividend.  Another quarter of the earnings are stock buybacks so you're basically getting a 5-6% share reduction, a 5% dividend so you're almost getting a 11% return just by sitting around. 

Thinks the Rite Aid (RAD) deal closes and separately also sees upside in Chemours (CC).  You can view his thesis on Chemours in Greenlight's Q2 letter.

Talked about the active vs passive investing debate.  Noted that "It seems to me that passive money management strategies are fundamentally momentum strategies.  In other words, the more the stock goes up, the more it becomes weighted in the index.  The more it becomes weighted in the index, the more important it becomes.  It continues going up, it doesn't ever revert."  Also called stocks like Apple (AAPL), Herc Holdings (HRI), and CIT (CIT) 'very cheap stocks.'



Boone Pickens (BP Capital):  Sees oil at $60 by the end of 2016 and up to $70 by the end of next year.  Likes EOG Resources (EOG) as well as Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD). Says 'you can't miss' on the later, argued that the only thing that can mess up his thesis is a recession.  Says PXD has a huge amount of oil.  (In the past we've posted how David Einhorn has/had been short PXD.)  Pickens says he's up 300% this year



Mario Gabelli (GAMCO Investors): Likes Herc Holdings (HRI), recent spin-off from Hertz Global (HTZ),  as a play on infrastructure: thinks EBITDA margins widen up to 1000 basis points.  Says the biz is growing 4-5% and is a highly fragmented biz but with 3 major players (other two being Ashtead (LSE:AHT) and United Rentals (URI).  Thinks stock triples over next 5 years.  He also posted about HRI on his Twitter account here.



Andy Beal (Beal Financial): He was pretty bearish and argued that government policies are basically depriving them of potential investment opportunities and basically said to get out of everything.  Talked up rental real estate.



Lisa Hess (SkyTop Capital):  Formerly of Loews, now manages SkyTop.  Her pick was Constellium (CSTM) as a proxy for more use of aluminum in automobiles etc.



Caroline Cooley (Crestline Investors):  Long Shutterfly (SFLY).  Says they have 60% market share and likes it as a growth play.  Said she's not worried about competition from the likes of Amazon (AMZN) and others like Snapfish.  Cited Apple trying and failing to compete with a similar service.  Says SFLY earns ten times that of its next biggest competitor, giving them a huge advantage.  Likes new CEO Chris North (previously of Amazon UK) and says company has some potential partnerships in the works and has bought back stock in the past.



Ray Nixon (Barrow Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss):  Talked about active vs passing investing.  Argued Buffett could potentially buy Phillips 66 (PSX) around $100 per share.  We've highlighted how Buffett has been accumulating PSX.


For more coverage of other recent investment conferences, head to our notes from the Sohn San Francisco conference.

Great Investors' Best Ideas Dallas 2014 Notes: Ackman, Einhorn, Perry & More

The 2014 edition of Great Investors Best Ideas Dallas took place this week benefiting the Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research and the Vickery Meadow Youth Development Foundation.


2014 GIBI Dallas Notes



Bill Ackman (Pershing Square):  He was positive on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FNMA & FMCC), which have obviously seen volatility as of late.  They own 10% of each and are quite bullish.  They've been buying both and say private property can't be taken by the government.  Pershing owns common versus the preferred and think it's just as good of an investment.  Thinks there's an opportunity for settlement.


David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital):  He continues to like Micron (MU) and Apple (AAPL), and also really likes Greek banks.  AAPL/MU his 2 largest stakes.  Says DRAM has been a bad business for a while and should make $4 per share as the industry is only 3 players now after consolidation.  Likes Greek banks as they're at or below book value.  Also likes shorting French government bonds: Marine Le Pen wants to leave the Euro and bonds yield around 1%.


Richard Perry (Perry Capital):  Based on his pitch that was circulated a few months ago, Perry likes the idea of containerboard sponsored MLPs (they've owned International Paper (IP), KapStone Paper (KS), and Rock-Tenn (RKT)).  He also likes tax loss candidates of AIG (AIG) and Ally Financial (ALLY).  ALLY = Trading below book value but should trade 1x at least.  Government still owns 15%, last sold some @ $25, trades $22.50 now, should finish selling at year-end.  Also says Perry is appealing the Fannie/Freddie ruling and that this particular judge has been overturned a bunch.


T. Boone Pickens (BP Capital): He was positive on Marathon Oil (MRO) and Clean Energy (CLNE) again.  2 of his picks last year were up (FANG and BAS), except for CLNE which is down big.  He owns 20m shares, could be biased "pride of ownership".  Says he thinks we drill too much and US is only place that's growing production.  Likes MRO because it's cheaper on EV/EBITDA than peers like XOM and OXY.  Says we won't see $10 natural gas in his lifetime.


Michael Price (MFP Investors): 2 ideas (1 old, 1 new): Still likes Dolby (DLB, old idea).  55% of the company is owned by kids of the company.  PC sales dropped but have recovered.  Company can see new growth in India/China.  Undervalued stock, attractive to private equity and Apple.  Also likes FMC Corp (FMC), new idea.  Stock whacked on overreaction that company won't be splitting into two parts.  Thinks it trades $120 or so in next few years.


Tom Russo (Gardner Russo & Gardner): They like family controlled businesses.  Look for 50 cent dollars.  Focuses on global consumer stocks.  He was positive on Cie Financiere Richemont SA.


Paul Isaac (Arbiter Partners):  He likes Credit Agricole Regional Banks.  CMO, CRTO, CCN, CAF, CIV, CRSU.  40% price to tangible book value.  Well capitalized and inexpensive on relative basis.  Shorted French 10 yr bonds to hedge as there is euro risk.  Also pitched Japanese General Trading Companies.  8001.JP, 8002.JP, 8031.JP, etc.  Some 70% tangible book value, trading 6x PE.


Bill Miller (LMM): Buy the homebuilders as he likes the sector in general.  Specifically mentioned KB Homes (KBH), Lennar (LEN) and Pulte (PHM).  Market at new highs yet builders aren't even though they've got a nice clean path for earnings growth.  Says employment is the key and housing starts are improving.  He also said he likes Intrexon (XON).   This is a bet on management, who owns a huge chunk of the company.  Big upside but also could lose half your investment.


Ray Nixon (Barrow Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss):  He's positive on Q4 tax loss candidates, noting that many mutual funds end fiscally in October so there's various pressures that month, not to mention that it's one of the worst months historically.  Recommends buying across October, November and into December.  Buy a basket of tax loss names.  Pitched Mattel (MAT):  Stock's down over 30%, losing Disney license in 2016, losing shelf space, missed the past 3 quarters.  He says toy industry is growing 5%, likes the dividend yield, and points to $1b in cash on balance sheet.  They've started buying shares.

Great Investors' Best Ideas Conference Notes 2013: Price, Akre, Gabelli, Pickens, Russo & More

Below are some brief notes from the 7th annual Great Investors' Best Ideas Conference in Dallas benefiting the Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research and the Vickery Meadow Youth Development Foundation.


Notes From Great Investors' Best Ideas Conference


Michael Price (MFP Investors): He pitched three ideas:  long Hospira (HSP), long Songbird Estates (SBD.LN) and long Dolby Labs (DLB).  HSP has seen value guys buying it, transitioning away from growth investors as the investor base changes.  The company has good free cash flow and he thinks the stock can hit $60.  His thesis on Songbird is a discount to NAV story (around 30%).  Dolby (DLB) has a ton of cash and no debt with huge royalty streams (80% of revenue).  As tablets and PCs continue to grow, they'll make money.


Chuck Akre (Akre Capital Management):  His picks were Moody's (MCO) which he likes due to its oligopoly position, solid return on equity and pricing power,  as well as O'Reilly (ORLY), the auto parts supplier which recently bought CSK Auto and the integration has gone well and now they're buying back shares.  His presentation also focused on how you should stick with your circle of competence and acknowledge when you're unsure of things. Focus on 3 things in a business:  growth of capital (high ROIC), good management, and solid reinvestment (how they used past FCF).  The price you pay is very important.


T. Boone Pickens (BP Capital):  He pitched Diamondback Energy (FANG) which he likes for its growth potential, no debt and a lot of cash.  He also likes Basic Energy Services (BAS) as excess capacity has been taken out.  He also touched on his picks from last year: National Oilwell Varco (NOV) which he still likes, as well as Pioneer Resources (PXD), almost a double and he likes the Permian basin acres (continues to like this stock as well).


Karen Finerman (Metropolitan Capital Advisors):  She pitched North Atlantic Drilling (NADL.NS) traded in Norway which was a spin-off from Seadrill (SDRL).  The spread between non-Norway rates and Norway rates is very big and many contracts already locked in.  She likes the cheap valuation, big dividend (potential for it to grow), says there's limited downside due to the backlog. There's also a catalyst with an IPO coming for a US listing and it won't be too dilutive. 


Tom Russo (Gardner, Russo & Garnder):  He pitched Nestle (NSRGY) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/B).  It seems like Russo always pitches Nestle when he speaks somewhere.  He's a global value investor and is looking for companies like See's Candies and invests for the long-term.  They have a lot of European companies in their portfolio and like market volatility as it provides opportunities to long-term investors.  The last major portfolio buys they made were AB Imbev (BUD) and Mastercard (MA) 3 years ago.


Mario Gabelli (Gabelli Funds):  He presented Cablevision (CVC) as a potential buyout candidate with John Malone (and Charter Communications) active and pushing for consolidation.  Will the Dolans sell CVC?  Argues that the company is worth up to $23 in a buyout, versus current levels of around $16.


Caroline Cooley (Crestline Investors):  She's focused on event-driven plays.  She specifically mentioned Macquarie Infrastructure (MIC) which is involved with infrastructure building, has a nice yield and could see it head higher.  It's undervalued because it cut the dividend in '09 and has limited sell-side following. says this story is probably in the middle innings.


Tom Gayner (Markel):  He pitched General Electric (GE).  He pitched the same stock at GIBI in 2007 when it was $40 and now the stock's at $25.  They still own shares and now have a $23 cost basis.


For more conference notes, we also posted up notes from Invest For Kids Chicago (Lasry, Eisman, Cooperman).

Boone Pickens Says Natural Gas Heading Higher, Likes National Oilwell Varco & Pioneer Natural Resources

We're posting up notes from the Great Investors' Best Ideas Investment Symposium in Dallas and next up is Boone Pickens of BP Capital Management.  The legendary energy man focused on, you guessed it, energy.

Pickens started his presentation talking about how the oil industry has changed over the past 10 years and how he thinks we can rebuild the economy off of cheap energy.  In politics, he thinks Romney will win the election and says he has the first true US energy plan (though it's not complete and he'd like to see more natural gas used).


Pickens on Natural Gas

One of the bolder calls of the conference was made when T. Boone argued that natural gas prices would rise to $4.50 or $5 in the next year and could see $6 by 2015.


Pickens' Stock Picks

At GIBI, Pickens recommended two stocks.  His first pick was National Oilwell Varco (NOV).  It currently trades at just under $74 and he thinks it will see $100.  He points to the company's huge shale opportunity for development and that there's still support for oil domestically and internationally.

His second pick was Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), which he likes due to their great assets, pointing to 900,000 acres (of which he specifically mentioned the Permian basin assets).  He says they'll be drilling for a while.  The stock currently trades at just under $106 and he thinks it sees $150.


For the rest of the presentations, head to notes from the Great Investors' Best Ideas conference.

Boone Pickens' BP Capital: Transocean (RIG) Still Top Holding (13F Filing)

This is the second quarter 2009 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out our series preface on hedge fund 13F filings.

Next up is T. Boone Pickens' hedge fund, BP Capital Management. He runs an energy-centric set of funds out of Dallas, Texas and is a big advocate of Peak Oil Theory. On the positive side of things, he has landed himself on Forbes' billionaire list. Yet on the negative side of things, he also graced the list of top hedge fund manager losers of 2008.

To say Boone had a rough 2008 would be putting it lightly. His energy fund was down 98% and his equities fund down 64% in a year to forget for the energy maverick. That said, BP returned 300% in 2005 and so it looks like you better have a strong stomach to survive the volatility here. We say this of course because we got word that Boone was seeking investors for hedge funds back in July. He started trading the new portfolios back in February and was up 79% already.

We'll be watching Boone's funds closely now that he's been personally hurt by them so much. He obviously doesn't want to blow up (again). In our recent hedge fund news summary, we also saw that Boone was scaling back his wind energy projects too. Looks like tough times all around for our favorite resident energy maverick. At 20%, he is the largest investor in his funds and will live and die by them. And for that, we cannot criticize him. We love to see managers with a lot of 'skin in the game.'

The following were BP Capital's long equity, note, and options holdings as of June 30th, 2009 as filed with the SEC. We have not detailed the changes to every single position in this update, but we have covered all the major moves. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted.


Some New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Forest Oil (FST)


Some Increased Positions (A few positions they already owned but added shares to)
Questar (STR): Increased by 40%
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG): Increased by 37.5%


Some Reduced Positions (Some positions they sold some shares of)
Transocean (RIG): Reduced by 27.8%


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)
Consol Energy (CNX)
Massey Energy (MEE)
Halliburton (HAL)
Schlumberger (SLB)
Foster Wheeler (FWLT)
Fluor (FLR)
Weatherford (WFT)
McMoran Exploration (MMR)


All of their long holdings by percentage of assets reported on the 13F filing *(see note below regarding calculations)

1. Transocean (RIG): 28.23%
2. Devon Energy (DVN): 15.93%
3. Occidental Petroleum (OXY): 15.39%
4. Suncor Energy (SU): 10.64%
5. Cabot Oil & Gas (COG): 9.85%
6. Questar (STR): 8.13%
7. Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 4.64%
8. Forest Oil (FST): 4.54%
9. Anadarko Petroleum (APC): 2.65%
   

Boone Pickens has had a rough patch here over the past year, but we'll continue to check in on this energy maverick to see what he's up to. As you can see, he has quite a concentrated portfolio full of energy names with Transocean (RIG) as his top position by a wide margin even after he sold off almost a third of his stake. If you go back before his funds 'blew up,' you'll see that Boone held many of these exact energy names and has favored them over the longer-term. He is obviously a big bull on crude oil and natural gas long-term and has positioned his equity portfolio as such.

He started a brand new position in Forest Oil (FST) with 260,000 shares and then he boosted his Cabot stake by 37.5% and boosted his Questar position by 40%. In terms of partial sales, he only sold off some RIG and that's it. However, in terms of full sales, he sold completely out of a bevy of names listed above in the 'removed' paragraph. Other than that, the rest of his positions were flat on a quarter by quarter basis as he left them unchanged.

*Note regarding portfolio percentages: Assets from the collective holdings reported to the SEC via 13F filing were $85 million this quarter compared to $93 million last quarter. Please keep in mind that when we state "percentage of portfolio," we are referring to the percentage of assets reported on the 13F filing. Since these filings only report longs (and not shorts or cash positions), the percentages are skewed. In reality, the percentages are more watered down in their actual hedge fund portfolio. If you were to calculate percentage weightings in the actual hedge fund portfolio, they would obviously be different since you would divide position sizes by their total assets under management.

This is just one of the 40+ prominent funds that we'll be covering in our Q2 2009 hedge fund portfolio series. So far, we've already covered the holdings of Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, Seth Klarman's Baupost Group, Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC, and Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, George Soros (Soros Fund Management), Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Philip Falcone's Harbinger Capital Partners, David Stemerman's Conatus Capital, Eric Mindich's Eton Park Capital, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, and Thomas Steyer's Farallon Capital. Check back each day as we cover prominent hedge fund portfolios.

Boone Pickens Seeks Investors For Hedge Funds

Well, here we go again. After his energy fund lost 98% and his equities fund lost 64% in 2008, Boone Pickens is back for more. Yep, he is raising money for new iterations of essentially the same hedge funds that his hedge fund BP Capital previously ran. Well, we don't even really need to say "essentially" because they literally are the same funds just with a "II" at the end of the name, signaling their second incarnation.

His Energy fund will trade futures and his Equities fund will trade energy related equities and some futures as well. His "II" Energy Fund started trading back in February and is already up a whopping 79%. It's funny how they are undoubtedly using that as marketing material and you can't blame them. However, investors should be aware that the exact same types of funds were obliterated last year. So, a 79% gain this year is not much when you consider how much they were down the year prior. According to fund documents, Pickens will aim to hold investments between 3 months and two years. If you're curious as to what his firm owns, we've covered Pickens' hedge fund portfolio recently here.

As our friend TraderMark over at FundMyMutualFund.com so poignantly asked, is Boone turning into the next John Meriwether? For those unaware, Pickens had an absolutely brutal last year as his funds lost money, he personally lost money, and every bet he made seemed to go against him. John Meriwether, on the other hand, blew up Long Term Capital Management back in the day and we just recently got word that he is closing yet another hedge fund down. We like to call it the hedge fund boom-bust cycle. Manager starts hedge fund, goes boom to the top of the charts, then goes bust. They then re-group, raise more money, and then start over again. Rinse and repeat. And, repeat again. You get the picture.

So, we like to poke fun at both the fund managers themselves for their propensity to 'blow up' and come right back from the dead with a new fund offering. At the same time, we like to poke even more fun at the investors who continually come back for more. Such is life in hedge fund land. Speaking of 'pokes, we know one institution who will be watching him carefully: The Cowboys of Oklahoma State University. Boone's alma mater certainly loves all of his donations as he has helped revamp the athletics program there. But, after last year, you know they'll be eagerly watching.

It will be interesting to follow Boone's funds now that he's been personally hurt by them so much. You know he certainly doesn't want to blow up again. Additionally, in our recent hedge fund news summary, we also saw that Boone was scaling back his wind energy projects too. So, tough times all around for ole T. Boone. In the end, he will live and die by his funds, as he is their largest investor, at 20%. And for that, we cannot criticize him. We love to see managers with a lot of 'skin in the game.'

Boone Pickens' Hedge Fund BP Capital: Licking Wounds (13F Filing Q1 2009)

This is the 1st Quarter 2009 edition of our ongoing hedge fund portfolio tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the Hedge Fund 13F filings series preface.

Next up, we have BP Capital. With all the commotion surrounding energy these days, it never hurts to track an energy focused hedge fund ran by none other than Boone Pickens. If you are unfamiliar with Pickens, he is an energy maverick and his fund returned 300% in 2005. He is a big advocate of Peak Oil Theory and runs an energy-centric hedge fund based in Dallas, Texas. Although he typically holds numerous positions in oil, he is also big on alternative energy (except ethanol).

We haven't covered Boone in our last few portfolio tracking series because his fund had been facing major problems and moved pretty much to cash. In fact, he was one of the top hedge fund losers of 2008. His energy/commodity fund was down around 60-80% at various times as he continually mistepped in the oil markets. Back in October, we noted that Boone was seeing massive investor redemption requests. This came after our report in September of last year noting that his funds were down huge for that year. Needless to say, 2009 will be a rebuilding year for Boone and his BP Capital Management.

Amazingly, Boone did still manage to land himself on Forbes' billionaire list though. To see what BP's portfolio would normally look like when fully invested, then check out their past holdings here. Over the course of last year, he advocated a large natural gas position and additionally made a big bet on wind energy as America's future. Outside of investing in it, he also has been a big proponent for energy change as America looks for new alternatives. He's pushing for energy independence with his Pickens Plan which initially picked up a lot of steam around the Presidential election, but has slowly tapered off and we haven't heard a whole lot from it recently. In terms of more recent energy prophecies, Boone has said he could see oil settling around $75 in the intermediate-term as the economy tries to recover.

The following were BP's long equity, note, and options holdings as of March 31st, 2009 as filed with the SEC. We have not detailed the changes to every single position in this update, but we have covered all the major moves. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted.


Some New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Transocean (RIG)
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)
Questar (STR)
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)
Consol Energy (CNX)
Massey Energy (MEE)
Halliburton (HAL)
Schlumberger (SLB)
Foster Wheeler (FWLT)
Fluor (FLR)
Anadarko (APC)
Weatherford (WFT)


Some Increased Positions (A few positions they already owned but added shares to)
Suncor (SU): Increased by 200%
Occidental (OXY): Increased by 100%
Chesapeake Energy (CHK): Increased by 100%
Devon (DVN): Increased by 67%


Some Reduced Positions (Some positions they sold some shares of - note not all sales listed)
n/a


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Peabody (BTU)
Denbury Resources (DNR)


All Holdings (by % of portfolio)

1. Transocean (RIG): 28.2% of portfolio
2. Devon Energy (DVN): 11.9% of portfolio
3. Occidental Petroleum (OXY): 11.85% of portfolio
4. Suncor Energy (SU): 7.1% of portfolio
5. Cabot Oil & Gas (COG): 5% of portfolio
6. Questar (STR): 5% of portfolio
7. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR): 4.4% of portfolio
8. Consol Energy (CNX): 4% of portfolio
9. Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 3.6% of portfolio
10. Massey Energy (MEE): 3.5% of portfolio
11. Halliburton (HAL): 3.3% of portfolio
12. Schlumberger (SLB): 3.2% of portfolio
13. Foster Wheeler (FWLT): 2.5% of portfolio
14. Fluor (FLR): 2.2% of portfolio
15. Anadarko Petroleum (APC): 2.1% of portfolio
16. Weatherford (WFT): 1.2% of portfolio
17. McMoran Exploration (MMR): 1% of portfolio

Pickens holds his typical plays, as his portfolio really hasn't changed. The equity holdings above were pretty much the same ones he held before facing massive redemptions at his hedge fund. So, even though there a bunch of names listed under the 'new' category, they aren't really new holdings. They are, for the most part, the same plays that he had before his liquidity crunch.

Keep in mind too that Pickens' portfolio is pretty small these days. Assets from the collective holdings reported to the SEC via 13F filing were a little over $93 million this quarter compared to $40 million last quarter. He's definitely started to put some money back to work, but it is nowhere near the asset levels he used to have (around $2 billion). As we said before, it will be a re-building year and we've started tracking him again because, let's face it, he'll be back. Investors always flock back to fallen fund managers and we really have no clue why. If anything, we can at least chronicle any shenanigans that might ensue. This is just one of the 40+ prominent funds that we'll be covering in our hedge fund Q1 2009 portfolio series. Check back each day as we cover new fund portfolios. We've already covered Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, John Paulson's hedge fund Paulson & Co, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Eric Mindich's Eton Park Capital, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, and David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, Seth Klarman's Baupost Group, Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Raj Rajaratnam's Galleon Group, Shumway Capital Partners (Chris Shumway), and Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital Group.

Boone Pickens' BP Capital Investors Withdraw Money

In what seems like an endless cycle of hedge fund withdrawals and redemptions, it should come as no surprise that investors in Boone Pickens' BP Capital hedge funds are seeking their money back. Let the redemption bloodbath begin. And, it seems as if BP Capital is partly responsible for the massive sell-off in energy equities.

We first got word of Boone's poor performance towards the end of September, when we noted that his equities fund was -30% through august, and his commodities fund was -84% through the same period. In his recent appearance on "60 Minutes," Boone noted that he and his firm had lost around $2 billion since the peak in June. And, in a recent WSJ article, they note that nearly 50% of investors are withdrawing their money from the fund, which has seen losses of nearly 60% now. They also note that Boone moved nearly everything into cash a few weeks ago, to protect from further downside risk.

So, its clear that Boone was one (of I'm sure many) hedge funds who were selling off entire positions over the past few weeks. As we detailed in our most recent look at BP's portfolio holdings, Boone runs an energy-centric equities fund. So, some of his holdings such as Transocean (RIG), Suncor (SU), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL), Chesapeake (CHK), and many more listed here have undoubtedly seen selling over the past few weeks due to Boone moving to cash. Obviously Boone wasn't solely responsible for the drop-off, but it looks like he was definitely one of the culprits. We won't know for sure which, if any, of his positions he is still holding until the next 13F filing is released in the coming weeks. But, it sounds as if he has hardly any positions right now as he prepares to meet investor redemptions/withdrawals.

The cycle of hedge fund redemptions/withdrawals undoubtedly will provide ample opportunities, which I recently detailed here. But, they will require patience and discipline to scale into the names as there is absolutely no way to gauge when the carnage will pass. Energy equities are by far some of the biggest casualties of the sell-off and are thus some of the most attractive for longer term investors. And, for once, I actually agree with the analyst community, who point out attractive opportunities in the energy sector. But, then again, those opportunities could get even more attractive as we undoubtedly face strong waves of continued forced selling.

Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List Update

Yesterday (10/2), Goldman Sachs (GS) was out making some changes to its esteemed conviction buy list. They removed Freeport McMoran (FCX) from the list, but still reiterated a normal 'buy' rating on the name. Additionally, they have added Suncor (SU) to the list.

Copper mining giant Freeport McMoran (FCX) hit a new 52-week low of $45.17 yesterday as it continues to get obliterated. Just a few months back, it was trading as high as $125. Nowadays, amidst the commodity sell-off, deleveraging, and hedge fund redemptions, FCX is getting no love. Its valuation is borderline absurd, trading at around a 5 trailing PE and a 3.9 forward PE. But, valuation got thrown out a long time ago in this market environment. Hedge fund giants such as Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital and Philip Falcone's Harbinger Capital had massive positions in FCX as of their most recent respective 13F filings with the SEC. Undoubtedly, the decline in FCX's share price has hit these funds hard. And, they most likely have been contributing to the selling. Last time we checked various hedge fund's year-to-date performances, Atticus was down 25% for the year and Harbinger, after being up 42% for the year, now finds themselves up only 2% (more numbers here). You can view Atticus' portfolio holdings here and Harbinger Capital's portfolio holdings here. Additionally, you can read more about Harbinger's exploits here.

Suncor (SU), on the other hand, was being added to the conviction buy list as shares continued to tumble. SU has fallen from a high of $73 to current levels of $33. Canadian Oil Sands giant Suncor (SU) is owned by numerous hedge funds, including legendary oil maverick T. Boone Pickens' BP Capital. And, as you can imagine, the share price depreciation in SU has affected Boone's portfolio in a negative way. Although not the sole reason for his funds' decline, Boone still finds himself down $1 billion for the year. You can view all of T. Boone Pickens' BP Capital equity holdings here.


Source: StreetInsider 1, 2

Boone Pickens' BP Capital Funds Down Big

If you are unfamiliar with T. Boone Pickens, he is an energy maverick and his fund returned 300% in 2005. He is a big advocate of Peak Oil Theory and runs an energy-centric hedge fund (BP Capital) based in Dallas, Texas. His energy stock fund has a compounded annual return of 37% over seven years. Although he typically holds numerous positions in oil, he is also big on alternative energy (except ethanol) and has numerous holdings there as well. He most recently advocated a large natural gas position and has additionally made a big bet on wind energy. Some of his thoughts can be seen here from one of my posts. And, if you live under a rock, he's pushing for energy independence with his Pickens Plan.

But, it seems as if the maverick himself has had a rough last few months. We already knew that BP Capital had a rough July, where he was down almost 35%. And, it gets even worse. His hedge fund that focuses on energy stocks is down 30% through August. Additionally, his commodity fund is down 84% and is a poster child of leverage gone bad. (His commodity fund relies heavily on leverage, hence the larger losses). Ouch. All things considered, he has lost around $1 billion this year, $270 million of which is his own money.

Pickens said,

"It's my toughest run in 10 years.... We missed the turn in the market, there's nothing fun about it. I'm not willing to accept that [the downturn] was due to a global slowdown. When there's deleveraging in markets it will affect everything."

Additionally, he thinks oil prices will climb again due to oil demand outpacing supply and will maintain this view until he sees evidence of a true global slowdown. But, in a cautious move, he has shifted his portfolios to a more neutral stance. Curious as to what BP Capital had in their portfolio that was causing them so much pain? Well, then check out my analysis of their most recent portfolio holdings, found in their latest 13f filing. We'll have to see if ole Boone can turn his ship around in the next few months.

Source: WSJ

Hedge Fund Tracking: BP Capital's 13F (T. Boone Pickens)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here).

Time to continue the Hedge Fund tracking series! If you've missed them, I've already covered Jeffrey Gendell's Tontine Partners here, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital here, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital here, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital here, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital here, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital here. Next up, we have BP Capital. With all the commotion surrounding energy these days, it never hurts to track an energy focused hedge fund ran by none other than Boone Pickens. If you are unfamiliar with Pickens, he is an energy maverick and his fund returned 300% in 2005. He is a big advocate of Peak Oil Theory and runs an energy-centric hedge fund based in Dallas, Texas. Although he typically holds numerous positions in oil, he is also big on alternative energy (except ethanol) and has numerous holdings there as well. He most recently advocated a large natural gas position and has additionally made a big bet on wind energy. Some of his thoughts can be seen here from one of my posts. And, if you didn't know, he's pushing for energy independence with his Pickens Plan.

So, now that we've got a little background on Boone and BP Capital, let's see what they were up to. The following are BP Capital's current holdings as of June 30th 2008, as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The positions in this most recent 13F were compared to last quarter's 13F and here are the changes made to their portfolio:

New Positions:
BPZ Resources (BZP): 350,000 shares. This position is 0.48% of BP's portfolio.
EOG Resources (EOG): 322,266 shares. This position is 1.9% of BP's portfolio.
Tenaris (TS): 1,106,394 shares. This position is 3.88% of BP's portfolio.
Devon Energy (DVN): 845,946 shares. This position is 4.79% of BP's portfolio.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 1,838,129 shares. This position is 5.7% of BP's portfolio.


Added to:
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 8.7% of their portfolio.
Transocean (RIG): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 8% of their portfolio.
Suncor (SU): Increased position by 105.7% (due to 2:1 stock split). Now 7% of their portfolio.
Schlumberger (SLB): Increased position by 11.6%. Now 6.5% of their portfolio.
Halliburton (HAL): Increased position by 65.7%. Now 6.1% of their portfolio.
Denbury Resources (DNR): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 5.4% of their portfolio.
Weatherford (WFT): Increased position by 250%. Now 4.5% of their portfolio.
XTO Energy (XTO): Increased position by 66.66%. Now 3.85% of their portfolio.
Talisman Energy (TLM): Increased position by 19.8%. Now 3.78% of their portfolio.
ABB (ABB): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 3.65% of their portfolio.
Jacobs Engineering (JEC): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 3.55% of their portfolio.
Sandridge Energy (SD): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 3.2% of their portfolio.
Fluor (FLR): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 2.75% of their portfolio.
Foster Wheeler (FWLT): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 2.57% of their portfolio.
Shaw Group (SGR): Increased position by 17.6%. Now 2.34% of their portfolio.
Chevron (CVX): Increased position by 2.8%. Now 2.11% of their portfolio.
Dresser Rand (DRC): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 1.79% of their portfolio.
McMoran Exploration (MMR): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 1.35% of their portfolio.
KBR (KBR): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 1.05% of their portfolio.
Greenbrier Companies (GBX): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 0.56% of their portfolio.


Reduced Positions:
none


Removed Positions (Positions BP sold out of completely):
Titanium Metals (TIE)


Positions with no change:
InterOil Corp (IOC): 1.3% of the portfolio
Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE): 0.2% of the portfolio


Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. Occidental Petroleum (OXY): 8.7% of the portfolio
2. Transocean (RIG): 8% of the portfolio
3. Suncor (SU): 7% of the portfolio
4. Schlumberger (SLB): 6.5% of the portfolio
5. Halliburton (HAL): 6.1% of the portfolio
6. Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 5.7% of the portfolio
7. Denbury Resources (DNR): 5.4% of the portfolio
8. Devon Energy (DVN): 4.79% of the portfolio
9. Weatherford Intl (WFT): 4.5% of the portfolio
10. Tenaris (TS): 3.88% of the portfolio

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Breakdown: T. Boone Pickens didn't do a whole lot of selling. In fact, he only made one sale: Titanium Metals (TIE), which he completely sold out of. But, in terms of selling... that's it. He didn't reduce any of his other positions at all. Whether he was hoarding cash or funding other purchases with his sale of TIE, who knows. But, what we do know, is that he was out adding various new positions and boosting stakes in current holdings. In terms of new holdings, Boone started some big positions in Tenaris (TS), Devon (DVN), and Chesapeake (CHK). All three positions were large enough to land in the top 10 of portfolio holdings after just being added last quarter. In terms of adding to existing holdings, Boone was adding heavily to XTO Energy (XTO), and Weatherford (WFT). He boosted his positions in XTO by 66% and in WFT by 250%. His top three holdings are Transocean (RIG), Occidental (OXY), and Suncor (SU).

The rest of additions T. Boone made are really minor. For instance, he added to a myriad of positions, increasing practically every other remaining position by around 2.8%. Don't try to make sense of this, because he did the exact same thing last quarter as I showed in the previous 13F update I wrote about BP here. Basically, it looks as if Boone has some spare cash laying around and he's slowly but surely easing into positions by adding to them by 2.8% each quarter. So, I think it makes sense to put more emphasis on the positions he has massively added to like the ones I highlighted in the paragraph above. But, at the same time, I think it's worth mentioning the various other names he seems to be slowly building a core position in over time.

That's really it concerning BP Capital's portfolio. Remember that this is an energy centric hedge fund and they undoubtedly have positions in the actual commodities markets themselves. And, we can't see these positions. Since the 13F filings we track are done through the SEC, they only track equities traded on the stock exchanges. The funds are not required to report holdings in the currency, commodity, or futures markets. So, keep in mind this is only the equity portion of BP's portfolio.

Boone Pickens Hedge Fund (BP Capital) Has Rough July

From Reuters:

"The commodity half of oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens's BP Capital hedge fund lost 35 percent of its value in July, the New York Post said, citing sources."

Ouch. Sounds as if old T. Boone needs to spend a little bit less time campaigning for his PickensPlan, and a little more time running his hedge fund. (Okay, maybe that's a little harsh considering he is poised to make big $$$ should his 'Plan' materialize in any way shape or form). Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see what his 13F looks like when he files that here in the next few days. It sounds as if he was pretty stubborn with some natural gas and oil plays though, that's for sure. Considering that commodities took it on the chin in July, and given the fact that his fund is energy-centric, the losses make sense. But, you'd think that someone with as much experience in the energy markets as Boone would be a bit quicker to react/adapt to what was happening.

Wind Update

Today I'm seeing a lot of interesting bits about wind power. The main bit I'm seeing is Boone Pickens' alternative energy plan found on the new website: http://www.pickensplan.com/. Longer term readers will know I keep tabs on Pickens simply because he's an energy maverick, has made a lot of money in the industry, and now runs BP Capital, an energy centric hedge fund. I've posted his thoughts numerous times. (I tracked his hedge fund portfolio holdings here, and I linked his thoughts on energy here). Now, although he's made the bulk of his money from oil, he's turning his focus to wind and natural gas; and rightly so. I've been bullish on alternative energy for some time now, saying that you need to play energy for the future. I've been assembling baskets of names in the wind, natural gas, solar, and nuclear spaces. But, that's not to say that Boone isn't still going to be invested in oil and other current energy plays. Besides playing energy for the future, you've got to play it for the intermediate term as I posted about here. Oil, coal, and natgas aren't going anywhere anytime soon, so you've got invest in those as well. And, if you think about it, natgas is the only type of energy overlapping in both the current energy picture and numerous people's plans for the future. So, I like to take a basket approach and pick a few names in each class and then have a dedicated percentage weighting to each type of energy.

But, back to wind. The main problem with investing in wind power is the lack of tangible options for the retail investor. There are a few companies who trade on the main exchanges, but wind is only a small sliver of their business. GE is the perfect example of this. They have wind exposure which is great, but a lot of people don't want the other stuff that comes with that company; they only want the wind exposure. The majority of wind-centric companies trade on the OTC and pink sheets (such as VWDRY.pk, BWEN.ob, CRPWF.pk, etc). And, the majority of investors either aren't comfortable investing over the counter, or simply don't know how to. So, its good to see wind getting more media exposure and 'hype' if you will. And, as investors, we've got to be playing it. I've said all along to spread your bets across all alternative energy classes, to cover your bases. Because in the end, there's no real way to know which ones will be prominent 20 to 30 years from now. If you're looking for a route 1 way to play wind, you could simply go through the new etf FAN. And, for your convenience, Jeffrey McLarty has sorted through the ETF holdings here. And, TraderMark highlights a new Wind IPO (Noble Environmental Power) here.

Lastly, I'm starting to see some wind names really breakout with heavy buying. Stewie highlighted Aerovironment (AVAV) over on his blog as a great technical setup. Some of you might remember me writing up a piece on AVAV here, after I learned they were the makers of architectural wind products (basically wind turbines on tall buildings). But, disappointingly, they are primarily a defense company and the wind segment of their business is tiny (although growing). If you want a trading vehicle, AVAV looks to be breaking out right now as Stewie pointed out. The overhead resistance in the high 26's has been taken out and should now act as support, and I'd be a buyer on the re-test of that support if you want to trade it. But, that's the main emphasis here, its a trading vehicle, not an investment (yet). I've got to monitor their wind segment growth over the next few quarters to really see if its a viable wind investment. Because, like many other 'wind' investments, the company is primarily NOT a wind company. They just have a wind segment of their business. At any rate, AVAV is breaking out and you can trade it if you like.



Whether it be through natgas, wind, nuclear, solar, you-name-it, you've got to be thinking ahead and playing energy for the future. Boone Pickens is a great person to follow in this regard as he is taking proactive steps to make Wind power a viable alternative through his wind farms in Texas. But, wind isn't the only option and he discusses that in the following video. Enjoy.

Oil... $120 is the make or break point. I expect a bounce

Wanted to touch on oil here since its such a big part of the markets these days. Currently, its pulling back and expectedly so. It was due for a pullback, but now we are approaching a very important make or break point: $120. As you can see in the chart above, every dip in oil has been a buying opportunity. And, interestingly enough, each dip has dipped all the way to the most recent peak and then bounced off that peak. Because, after all, that peak used to be past resistance. But, once we blasted through it, it became future support. For some reason I can't get my graphics to show up on the chart but do me a favor and just mentally draw a line horizontally across the $120 mark. There you will see where the pullback is headed. And, if look at the peak in the end of April, where does it sit? Yep, right at $120. Here's the deal, I'm short-term bearish on oil simply because it needs to pullback even more. All you hear about now is consumers complaining about $4 gasoline. So, with demand in the US (one of the biggest consumers of crude) decreasing, oil needs to pullback in price. Pure supply and demand economics. But, here's the catch. You can't expect that to happen because markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. So, I am *fully* expecting a bounce at $120 if we even get that low. Traders, speculators, you name it, they will all be rushing into this name on a beautiful technical bounce off of past resistance/now future support, as well as the moving averages. I've drawn the exponential moving average in red and the simple moving average in blue, since I know various people use various averages. But, this shows that both are right around $120. It's an imperative level and just wanted to make sure everyone had seen it. Not to mention, stochastics are oversold at current levels, implying a bounce. I don't usually look at stochastics on commodities in general, I typically use them just for stocks. But, its worth mentioning as it also backs up the argument for a bounce at $120.

So, buy oil on the dip to $120 for a trade at the very least. Place your stops below that and call it good. If it breaks below your stop then it's time to get short because then oil is heading lower and will have made a technical breakdown. You can play oil with ticker USO which is the US Oil Trust (think GLD but for Oil). Or, you could play it through the deep sea drillers like RIG, DO, ATW, etc. I'd recommend USO simply because the chart is identical to $WTIC (crude), so you've got clear entry/exit points. Whereas on RIG etc you've got to monitor the price of oil yourself and then set conditional buy/sell orders on those stocks once oil hits a certain price, triggering your order to buy/sell RIG or whatever oil company you choose to play it with.

Also, just wanted to throw in some commentary from oil greats Richard Rainwater and T. Boone Pickens. If you're unfamiliar with Rainwater, he's down in Texas and was famous for striking it big on heavy bets on Disney as well as heavy bets on the appreciation of the price of oil. He and Boone share the Peak Oil Theory belief. At any rate, Rainwater says he's short-term bearish on oil, and he makes the right case in this Time article here.

Boone Pickens also spent some time talking to Time magazine about oil (and his odd position in Yahoo YHOO). You can check out that video here.

BP Capital's 13F (Boone Pickens)

Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's HERE.

So, first up this week we've got BP Capital. With all the commotion surrounding energy these days, I thought it was only fitting that we begin with an energy focused hedge fund ran by none other than Boone Pickens. If you are unfamiliar with Pickens, he is an energy maverick and his fund returned 300% in 2005. He is a big advocate of Peak Oil Theory and runs an energy-centric hedge fund based in Dallas, Texas. Although he typically holds numerous positions in oil, he is also big on alternative energy (except ethanol) and has numerous holdings there as well. He most recently advocated a large natural gas position and has additionally made a big bet on wind energy. His most recent thoughts can be seen here from my recent post.

Now, let's get down to business. The following is BP Capital's current holdings as of March 31st 2008 as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. I've compared the positions in this most recent 13F to last quarter's 13F and here's what the breakdown looks like:

New Positions:(in no particular order)
Halliburton (HAL) 1,476,346 shares
McMoran Exploration (MMR) 1,017,151 shares
Sandridge Energy (SD) 1,025,621 shares
Transocean (RIG) 1,085, 365 shares
XTO Energy (XTO) 716,762 shares

Added to:
ABB Ltd (ABB) increased position by 2.7% (70,878 more shares)
Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) increased position by 1% (3946 more shares. Note: This is also Pickens' company)
Dresser Rand (DRC) increased position by 2.7% (24,731 more shares)
Fluor (FLR) increased position by 2.7% (15,980 more shares)
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) increased position by 139% (422,788 more shares)
Greenbrier (GBX) increased position by 2.7% (15,183 more shares)
Interoil (IOC) increased position by 0.8% (7,652 more shares)
Jacobs Engineering (JEC) increased position by 2.7% (23,766 more shares)
KBR (KBR) increased position by 2.7% (16,353 more shares)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) increased position by 2.7% (52,277 more shares)
Schlumberger (SLB) increased position by 16.6% (164,306 more shares)
Shaw Group (SGR) increased position by 2.7% (17,914 more shares)
Talisman (TLM) increased position by 2.7% (79,210 more shares)
Titanium Metals Corp (TIE) increased position by 2.7% (28,847 more shares)
Weatherford Intl (WFT) increased position by 41% (160,845 more shares)

Reduced Positions:
Chevron (CVX) decreased position by 55% (sold 529,063 shares)
Denbury Resources (DNR) decreased position by 7.2% (sold 238,679 shares)
Suncor (SU) decreased position by 31% (sold 559,812 shares)

Removed Positions:
Positions BP Capital sold out of completely
Anadarko Petroleum (APC)
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Valero (VLO)

Positions with no change:
None

Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. RIG (top holding)
2. OXY
3. SU
4. SLB
5. DNR
6. FLR
7. ABB
8. JEC
9. HAL
10. TLM
---------------------------------------------------------

Breakdown: So, it appears that Boone Pickens is moving away from the integrated oil plays and into companies that do not have exposure to refining. He's cut his CVX position in half and gotten completely out of XOM and VLO. And, you can't blame him with Oil at current prices... refining margins just flat out suck here. I really like his move (back) into RIG. In his 13F prior to this one, he had sold out of RIG completely and I was very puzzled by that maneuver. But, good to see he's back in the name considering they are seeing very high high day rates. And, in fact, RIG is now BP's largest holding in the portfolio. And, he just picked it all up this past quarter. I wouldn't be too worried about him selling some SU seeing as he's probably just doing some profit taking as well as freeing up cash to put in more natural gas oriented plays. He's stated numerous times that he really likes the Canadian oil sands for their market positioning. He really beefed up his position in FWLT and it looks like he really likes infrastructure plays with his picks of FWLT, JEC, and FLR, with FLR being his top infrastructure holding. I definitely agree on FLR and FWLT, but I'm not entirely sold on JEC yet (time for more research). He also started a position in SD which is interesting because numerous other hedge funds also started a position in SD this past quarter (more on that in the posts to come). But, given his bullish stance on natural gas, this play makes perfect sense. So, there you have it, a glimpse inside Boone Pickens' mind and a peek inside his portfolio.

My personal favorites out of his portfolio: RIG, OXY, SU, FLR, FWLT, XTO
Most interesting move: His addition of SD, considering numerous other hedge funds added it too

Note: Of his positions, I'm long RIG, OXY, SU, FLR, FWLT, SD

Tune in tomorrow when I detail the changes within Lone Pine Capital's portfolio, ran by Steven Mandel (a protege of legendary investor Julian Robertson).