Boone Pickens Says Natural Gas Heading Higher, Likes National Oilwell Varco & Pioneer Natural Resources

We're posting up notes from the Great Investors' Best Ideas Investment Symposium in Dallas and next up is Boone Pickens of BP Capital Management.  The legendary energy man focused on, you guessed it, energy.

Pickens started his presentation talking about how the oil industry has changed over the past 10 years and how he thinks we can rebuild the economy off of cheap energy.  In politics, he thinks Romney will win the election and says he has the first true US energy plan (though it's not complete and he'd like to see more natural gas used).


Pickens on Natural Gas

One of the bolder calls of the conference was made when T. Boone argued that natural gas prices would rise to $4.50 or $5 in the next year and could see $6 by 2015.


Pickens' Stock Picks

At GIBI, Pickens recommended two stocks.  His first pick was National Oilwell Varco (NOV).  It currently trades at just under $74 and he thinks it will see $100.  He points to the company's huge shale opportunity for development and that there's still support for oil domestically and internationally.

His second pick was Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), which he likes due to their great assets, pointing to 900,000 acres (of which he specifically mentioned the Permian basin assets).  He says they'll be drilling for a while.  The stock currently trades at just under $106 and he thinks it sees $150.


For the rest of the presentations, head to notes from the Great Investors' Best Ideas conference.

Bluescape Resources' John Wilder on Natural Gas: Ira Sohn Presentation

We're posting up notes from the Ira Sohn Conference.  Bluescape Resources' John Wilder gave a presentation on energy and natural gas.

Energy investor, TXU, Entergy turnarounds. Natural gas outlook. "Be careful what you wish for!"

Supply and demand situation, Fundamentals: Huge increase in supply in NA, in 2011 highest yoy increase in history, 30% supply due to technology breakthroughs. Gas rig activity doubled from 02-08, but was only 40% of it from the 4 main plays: Marcellus, Fayatteville, Haynesville, Barnett. Demand was flat. Had huge increase in gas power generation, but not enough to keep up. It's switching from coal.

Price dropped from oil parity to coal parity, now it's cash cost of production. Expect to go back up to coal substitute pricing, but never goes back to oil parity.

Is low-cost natural gas sustainable? Marcellus is $2.85 break even price, the rest are over $4.00. Marcellus has about 10-15 years of supply. Well productivity has increased, 52% gains. 700-800 rigs to keep up with the depletion loss.

Wildcard: what is the impact of high-yield gas? You get a blend of NGLs. Ethane, propane, butane, even gasoline. 10 years of demand, 252 TCF in recent finds, in some cases you don't even need any cash contribution from the gas itself because of the NGLs. Will LNG be exported? Will vehicles ever use natural gas? Very little chance of material impact in the short run.

Implications? WLK good long. Thinks prices stay low for a while.


P.S. - Don't miss other presentations from David Einhorn, John Paulson, Bill Ackman & more: notes from Ira Sohn Conference 2012.

Hedge Fund Exposure Levels: Still Very Long Equities

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is out with some recent data on hedge fund portfolio positioning as of the first week of December. Per their hedge fund monitor report, we see that hedge funds were still very much long equities as they have overweighted that asset class as well as energy and precious metals. We also learn that they were covering shorts in 10-Year Treasuries and the US dollar index. Those two short positions have been widespread in hedge fund land for some time now as hedgies bet on inflation via rising rates and a weak dollar. While in the past we've covered specifics like what ten stocks are most popular amongst hedge funds, we're taking a step back today to highlight the broader picture.

Overall Exposure Levels

Long/Short Equity Hedge Funds: While most L/S funds typically have had 30-40% net long exposure historically, December kicked off with hedge funds net long by around ~45%. This comes after long/short funds had hit a multi-year high level of 50% net long in mid November. Some recent action by these funds suggest that their inflationary expectations are declining and they have been shifting from value and high quality names into small cap names.

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Market Neutral Hedge Funds: They note that market neutral funds have stuck to their name and have gone back to 'neutral,' having spiked in weeks prior. Overall, they are largely neutral on equities and have negative inflationary expectations.

Global Macro Hedge Funds: Additionally, global macro hedge funds have been in a 'crowded long' of the S&P 500 and have also been in an even more crowded long of emerging markets. Bank of America Merrill Lynch's readings on net long emerging market positions are at the highest they have been since August 2008. They also apparently have been selling 10-Year Treasuries and have been modestly covering shorts on the US dollar (a crowded trade).


Commodities

We also now want to turn to commodity exposure levels as they have taken center stage again with Gold's parabolic rise.

Gold: Their research indicates that in the first week of December, large speculators were selling gold. However, this is still very much a crowded trade to the longside. They note that gold completed what they call a 'head and shoulders continuation pattern that projects up to $1300-1350.' So, interesting to see their price targets on the precious metal as those levels fall largely in line with technical analysis price targets on gold that we've seen. Also, we've recently covered the latest offering from hedge fund icon John Paulson. Those interested in gold should read his rationale in our in-depth post on his new gold fund.

Silver: They are noting that large speculators were buying silver somewhat at the beginning of December and that it is stuck in a trend channel. Their target upside is in the $20 area and they see support in the $14-15 range. The long-term upside target on silver is an old high of $50.

Copper: Well, Dr. Copper was holding steady as large speculators pretty much left their net long position unchanged. They note that copper has an upside potential to $350 while they are identifying support in two areas: $290 as well as $260.

Platinum: Large speculators mildly increased their bets on this metal in the first week of December. After falling off last year due to weak automotive demand, the metal has bounced back and has support at $1250 and resistance at $1500 according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's research.

Crude Oil: In this commodity, large speculators held their steady net long positions as of the first week of December, having been selling at the end of November. They note that crude has been trading in a sideways range of around $65-75 since July and a breakout above this area would obviously prove to be bullish. They end their note saying that the "crowded long position remains a contrarian negative." We also recently highlighted a technical analysis video on crude oil that identified a potential pattern in this commodity as well.

Natural Gas: This commodity has been on a deathspiral for some time and it looks set to continue. As of the first week in December, large speculators were holding their deep net short position. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has commented on current action, saying it "appears to be in a broad base-building process."


Fixed Income

Moving lastly to fixed income, we thought it would be prudent to check in on hedge fund positioning as it relates to US Treasuries. As we've detailed on Market Folly before, there have been tons of prominent hedge fund managers involved on the short side of this trade. Many prominent hedge funds and market gurus have previously warned of inflation and have shorted long-term US treasuries. One of the original hedgies Michael Steinhardt himself has called treasuries foolish. Legendary investor and ex-Quantum fund manager Jim Rogers shares this sentiment and dislikes treasuries. Hedge fund legend Julian Robertson is betting on higher interest rates and is doing so via constant maturity swaps (CMS).

There are also managers playing the other side of the trade as bond vigilante Bill Gross of PIMCO is betting on deflation and has been buying treasuries. What's interesting here is that technically, both sides of the trade can win. One side of the trade could profit from short-term ebbs and flows, while the other side of the trade could win out in the long-run. It will arguably take years for the final verdict to play out, but that doesn't mean money can't be made in the mean time.

Here is the latest hedge fund positioning on 30-Year Treasuries, 10-Year Treasuries, as well as 2-Year Treasuries:

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That wraps up Bank of America Merrill Lynch's coverage of hedge fund exposure levels as of the first week of December. While it's good to see overall hedge fund exposure levels, those of you wanting more specific positions can head to our post on the top ten stocks owned by hedge funds. It's interesting to see how hedge funds are positioned heading into the close of the year and we're sure they'll be adjusting once the new year starts as well. To see how hedge funds might position themselves for next year, check out ten investment themes for 2010.

Market Update

Wanted to take a second to post up a few things I'm seeing in the market and around the financial blogosphere. Firstly, Apple (AAPL) has reached its second major level of $120. Earlier, I wrote about AAPL at a critical juncture when it was trading $150. If you caught the break to the downside, you made a quick and easy 30 points. Now, I want to put it on your radar screens again as it has reached an even more important support level of $120. You can buy the dip and stop out below the lows of $115, or whatever your rules say about placing stops. The market is extremely oversold and the fear indicators are starting to head higher. But, that's not to say we can't go even lower. I'd say try to play AAPL from the long side here. But, if it takes out your stop, swing it to the shortside because AAPL will have violated a major support level. The technicals are really your only guide to the market right now as fundamentals and logic have been thrown out the window a long time ago.

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Secondly, I want to again highlight the great work my man Stewie is doing over on his site. In addition to the fear indicators I wrote about yesterday, he's got an update posted today, comparing fear levels to the last bear market we saw in 2002. As you can see from the chart, tradeable bottoms have been put in when the VXO has hit 50 or so. And, as he effectively points out, the VXO can get as high as 50 on numerous occassions. So, don't necessarily expect this to be our only trip to levels this high as the credit crisis and lagging economy continue to play out. Addditionally, he points out that the 52 week low list is now extreeeemely long. Check it out.

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Thirdly, I want to point out an opportunity in Natural Gas (UNG). Commodities have been hit hard, we all know that. But, with the chart sitting where it is, I think its worth a play here because it offers some solid risk/reward and a very clearly defined stop. Plus, I still think natural gas is poised to benefit in the future as I wrote about in my piece about how to play energy for the intermediate and longer term. The Pickens Plan has been gaining ground and even if it does not succeed, it certainly has helped at least raise awareness about natural gas as an alternative. Turning to the chart (brought to my attention by Steve Puri), we see a very clear level of support at $33 in the United States Natural Gas fund (UNG). Now, in the past, I've stated that there is no such thing as a triple bottom. So, we'll see if that statement holds true as this will be the 3rd time UNG has tested support in the $33 region. The horizontal line drawn below represents your line in the sand. If it stays above the line, you get long. If it breaks the line to the downside, its time to get short. The market is crazy right now so make sure you use a tight stop whichever way you decide to play it.

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Lastly, I want to point out an excellent study by Rob Hanna over at Quantifiable Edges. Basically, he's looked at huge market selloffs/tradeable bottoms in order to identify which names typically benefit the most from the rally that results from the tradeable bottom. And, since I feel we're getting closer to that event, I thought it was relative to point out. Rob has noted that basically, the stocks/sectors that held up the most in the downturn typically do not benefit the most in the ensuing rally. His study from the January selloff/bounce indicates that names which survived the selloff such as Walmart (WMT) or Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) only rallied modestly in the ensuing bounce. But, as he points out, names/sectors that were beaten down hard such as Home Depot (HD) and General Motors (GM) rallied substantially when the time came. Now, that's not to say that the consumer staples like WMT and JNJ didn't rally as well, because they did. But, in the context of the rally, they underperformed. So, simply put, think of it as a role reversal. Once the market capitulates and then rallies, the past underperformers become the outperformers and the previous outperformers now become the laggards. Make sense? I highly recommend checking out Rob's January study here and follow up here.

Sources: Stewie, Steve Puri, & Quantifiable Edges

Monthly Performance: June 08

Paul Kedrosky posted up this lovely breakdown of the worst "June" returns on the Dow in History. And, although the month indeed was bad, it didn't necessarily feel that way. We never saw true panic, we never saw capitulation. Instead, we saw stocks slowly bleed it out. And, that led us to a month where the S&P500 was -8.60%. And, halfway through the year, the S&P sits at -12.5% YTD. But, for those of us with some sense and a solid gameplan, the month wasn't so bad. Why, might you ask? Well, because we saw this coming a mile away. We know the U.S. is still in a recession, we know the housing sector is accelerating to the downside, we know oil is setting record highs, and we know that the financials are still sorting through the rubble of the credit crisis. We are by no means out of the woods yet and my portfolio has been based on that for quite some time. I figured I would start posting up my monthly performance here, to stick with my theme of complete transparency. (Well that and the fact that I had a pretty damn good month and this seemed like an ideal time to brag, er I mean start logging my results on the blog haha). For the month of June, MarketFolly's portfolio was up 5.56%. And, year to date, the portfolio is up 10.5%.

Since I've now turned to focusing on absolute return rather than relative return, I'll leave you to do the math in terms of outperformance. And, as a matter of fact, after having some discussions with numerous absolute return portfolio managers, I've come to the conclusion that people still pay attention to the indexes no matter what. Even if absolute return technically has no metric for comparison, you still want to be outperforming the next best alternative (ie: stocks, bonds, cash, or other alternatives). And, the next best alternative could very well be the indexes on certain months, you never know. In the end, its all about semantics and just depends on the portfolio managers absolute return goals. There will always be people who will want to compare results to the indexes just because that is what has been ingrained in everyone's mind to begin with. As long as I know my goals in running an absolute return portfolio, then relevant return is meaningless and is just a moot talking point. I'm very happy with my results thus far, but I can merely attribute it to creating a gameplan and sticking with it. I didn't panic and I stayed disciplined. That is one of the most valuable lessons you can learn when dealing with financial markets.

The macro themes we've seen have continued to play out. Housing sucks, financials suck, the dollar sucks, the economy sucks, and commodities are roaring. Many of the gains for me this month are attributed to taking a strong round of profits in my Natural Gas (UNG, CHK) and Coal (ACI, MEE) names. Additionally, I locked in profits in the fertilizer plays at the new highs (POT, MOS) and then am starting to buy them back here down at these levels. Additionally, I have been shorting the market itself through SDS, which is the etf for Ultrashorting the S&P500. It seeks twice the inverse performance of the S&P. So, if the index goes down 1%, SDS should theoretically go up 2%. I usually use this (and a few other etf's) as a 'hedge' in my portfolio, layering in and out when the market makes drastic moves one way or the other. For instance, in the bear market rally we saw leading up to this recent decline, I was adding heavily to the SDS, seeing as I knew we were still in a bear markets and the charts showed this clear as daylight. And, I posted this chart a few weeks back reminding everyone we were still in a downtrend here :
And, if we pulled up that same chart now, you would see we have fallen another 50 points on the S&P. The green circle below shows what happened to the S&P in the few weeks after I posted the original chart above. Here's what things look like currently:
In the end, everything played out like we anticipated and locked in some nice gains. I have now been taking profits in SDS as I feel we are due for an oversold bounce (and apparently everyone else feels this way too, which is concerning.... but that's a whole different conversation).

The rest of the gains this month were due to some shorter term moves I had made, most notably with Capital One (COF). I have been in and out of this name on the short side, as I feel they truly have the most exposure to the 'next leg' of problems in the financials: increasing credit card receivables/rising delinquincies & bad auto loans. COF has exposure to both and is having problems. This name has been a major component of the short side of my portfolio, to ensure I'm truly hedged. And, what better way to reap the gains than to short a financial, right? My thoughts exactly. (Note: I've covered the last of my position last week and I am no longer short this name, but I will be looking to re-short on any major pops). I didn't actually blog post about this name in my portfolio, but I did 'tweet' about it numerous times on twitter (here's an example and here's another). So, this just goes to show why you should be following me on twitter! Or at the very least, reading the twitter posts that stream as I post them on the upper right hand corner of my blog. Here's a chart outlining my entry and exit from this name:So, as you can see, all I did was stick to the gameplan and watch the charts for excellent entry/exit points in terms of risk/reward. I realize that these plays could have easily gone against me and continued to rally. But, if they did, I would have been stopped out right above the moving averages, and no harm done. It's all about knowing your risk/reward before even entering a position. For me, this month can be summed up by patience. The whole rally in the indexes from the middle of March until May was simply a rally in the midst of a bear market. I waited patiently until it found resistance, and then entered some short positions in financials (COF) and the market in general (through SDS). I continued to hold my fertilizer, coal, natural gas, and resource plays as they continued to benefit while the overall market struggled. Now, having taken profits in these names, I'll be waiting for pullbacks to re-enter the strong sectors of the market.

Next up: July. Will we see an oversold bounce? Will we continue to bleed it out slowly? Who knows. All I know is I'll be monitoring things closely, waiting patiently to set up my next move based on what happens at this test of support/the March lows on the indexes.