John Burbank Long CF Industries: Invest For Kids Chicago Presentation

We're posting up notes from the Invest For Kids Chicago conference 2015.  Next up is John Burbank of Passport Capital.  He pitched a long of CF Industries (CF).


John Burbank's Invest For Kids Chicago Presentation

•    Pitching CF Industries (CF).
•    Biggest position for two years.
•    One of the few commodity equities he wanted to be long.
•    Remains bearish on commodities.
•    Located for 30 minutes from Chicago for just for another quarter, did a merger.
•    Stock traded down 30% off the deals.
•    First was a purchase of OCI. 60% of nitrogen fertilizer capacity in USA/5% global market share.
•    USA is the Saudi Arabia of Natural Gas.
•    $2 gas margins over 50%.
•    Went to $70 in early July, ended at $45 by September.
•    CF to exchange $7.4B of stock and assumed debt and cash for OCI NA and European nitrogen/methanol facilities. 2016 close data. Enables a tax inversion.
•    Over-levered copper companies which are going to zero rising 50%, yet stuff like CF dropping doesn’t make sense.
•    HSR approved yesterday and the stock dropped, not understood by the market.
•    By February should be closed.
•    CHS Co-Op – sold a minority stake at a premium. CHS canceled a 3.1BB nitrogen plant. Instead will invest 2.8B in CF for 9% of CF’s pre OCI deal production.
•    Deal values CF equity at ~$107.
•    Combined market cap of $17B. 3-5B of EBITDA post deal.
•    Cash flow from ops after mcapex of $1.8 to 3.2B.
•    Product capacity of 25.1MM short tons.
•    Will use FCF to return to shareholders.
•    Take five years to build capacity so nothing to do with money.
•    CF is not a mining company.
•    Short Mosaic (MOS), Potash (POT), Agrium (AGU), K&S as a hedge. Negative on markets and commodities.
•    Also is long USD.
•    CF is 8th best performing stock over the past ten years behind apple.
•    EPS 5.5-6 dependent upon corn yields.
•    Street doesn’t understand this industry or the OCI deal.
•    Passport has an analyst with a Dow/GE background tracking this. Good edge.
•    CF has returned 11% of its market cap annually to shareholders, bouht back 35% of company since FY12. 2.3% div yield. Will probably buy abck more stock.
•    Sold phosphate biz (not great) to Mosaic.
•    Executives are buyers.
•    Will return $12Bn to shareholders over next four years. Mcap is 17B.
•    Can’t buyback stock now until deal closes.
•    Buybacks based upon flat prices.
•    Thinks commodity prices going down, USA might go into something that feels like a recession. Shouldn’t own most stocks. Want something confident in liquidity and management.
•    Trade long CF / short 2/3 MOS and 1/3 POT as a pair.


Check out the rest of the presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago 2015.

Dan Loeb's Third Point Reduces Equity Exposure For Fifth Straight Month

Dan Loeb's Third Point Offshore Fund finished -3.5% for September compared to -7% for the S&P 500. Third Point sits at 0.2% year-to-date. The Offshore Fund manages just over $4 billion and has seen annualized returns of 17.6% since 1996.


Third Point Reduces Equity Exposure For Fifth Straight Month

In what has been an ongoing theme, Third Point reduced equity exposure yet again in September. Earlier in the year, we highlighted Loeb's cautious stance as he began to reduce exposure. At the end of September, Third Point was only 15.6% net long equities, compared to 17.7% net long a month prior.

Obviously such positioning has led to Third Point's outperformance. Geographically, Third Point has been net long the Americas and net short the EMEA and Asia regions. Risk management has been the name of the game for the fund this year.

In September, Loeb's largest net long exposure came in the technology sector at 8.9% and energy at 3.4%. Third Point is net short industrials at -1.3% and utilities at -0.5%.

In credit, Third Point is 15.6% net long, down from 18.5% net long in August. They continue to have the largest exposure to asset backed securities and remain short government issues.


Third Point's Top Positions

1. Yahoo! (YHOO)
2. Gold
3. Delphi
4. El Paso (EP)
5. Technicolor (multiple securities owned)

We detailed Loeb's activist investment in Yahoo when he first took the position. He also presented his bull case for YHOO at the Delivering Alpha conference.

Third Point's biggest winners last month were commodity short A, energy short basket, SanDisk (SNDK), auto suppliers short basket, and short B. Obviously they don't name their short positions but it's no surprise that many shorts were their top percentage gainers. The hedge fund's biggest losing positions last month were gold, Mosaic (MOS), Delphi, CVR Energy (CVI), and Yahoo! (YHOO).

Assuming Third Point still owns Mosaic, you have an opportunity to purchase shares at prices lower than the hedge fund. They originally bought MOS at $65 on the Cargill family secondary and then subsequently bought the dip in June (presumably around $60). MOS shares now trade around $49.

Dan Loeb's Third Point Outperforming, Reduces Exposure Yet Again

In early August, we noted how Dan Loeb's Third Point reduced equity exposure for the third consecutive month. That decision has certainly paid off as Loeb's fund was only down 2.8% in August compared to the S&P 500 which was down 5.4%. Year-to-date as of the end of August, Third Point is up 3.9% while the S&P is down 1.8%.


Reduced Exposure for Fourth Straight Month

At the end of August, Third Point was only 17.7% net long equities, down even further from their 23.3% net long exposure back in July. Their largest net long exposure comes in technology at 6.5% and basic materials at 3.5%. Third Point is net short industrials (-1.5%) and utilities (-0.6%).

In credit, Loeb's Offshore Fund is 18.5% net long, a slight decrease from last month. They continue to be net short government securities (-10.3%) and have their largest net long exposure in asset backed securities (+17.3%).

Geographically, Third Point is net long the Americas at 50%, net short EMEA at -4% and net short Asia at -2%.


Third Point's Outperformance

So while decreased exposure to risk certainly has helped Loeb outperform in this volatile market, his winners the past month include gold, short A, CVR Energy (CVI), Barrick Gold (ABX), and short B.

It should come as no surprise that their gold related investments have helped them outperform as the precious metal rocketed higher as market volatility increased. Not to mention, gold has been one of Third Point's largest positions for some time now.


Top Positions

- gold
- Delphi
- CIT Group (multiple securities held)
- Technicolor (multiple securities held)
- El Paso (EP)

The most notable change in Third Point's top positions since last month is the absence of Mosaic (MOS). There's no way to know exactly why because they could have reduced their position size, other positions could have appreciated more, or they could have bought more of some of their top holdings.

Third Point originally bought MOS on the secondary when the Cargill family unloaded shares at $65 per share. The hedge fund subsequently 'bought the dip' in MOS when it traded down to around $60. During August, MOS traded as low as $55.70, and currently trades around $69.50.

Either way, Third Point's top holdings have largely been what you see above as they wait for Delphi to go public and El Paso to split up.

David Tepper's Appaloosa Sells Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC)?

David Tepper's hedge fund Appaloosa Management filed their 13F early with the SEC and in it are some noteworthy moves. The filing reflects portfolio activity as of June 30th, but it does give us a glimpse as to what he was up to in the second quarter.

The big talking point here is that in the second quarter, Tepper sold 41% of his position in Bank of America (BAC), selling over 7.2 million shares. He also sold 5% of his position in Wells Fargo (WFC) and 6% of his position in Citigroup (C), his top equity holding at the end of Q2.

However, David Faber at CNBC is hearing that Tepper has since sold completely out of BAC and WFC in recent weeks. He also apparently sold a chunk of his stake in C too. Tepper has not confirmed this though.

Turning back to the factual information from the 13F we do have though, Tepper also sold 54% of his stake in Hewlett Packard (HPQ).

In terms of new positions, Appaloosa started new stakes in Mosaic (MOS), Western Refining (WNR) and Google (GOOG). It's likely that Appaloosa took advantage of the MOS secondary as Dan Loeb's Third Point also bought MOS. Tepper also bought more CVR Energy (CVI) which we already highlighted back in June.

On the long side, refining seems to be a big theme for Appaloosa as they ramped up their stake in Valero (VLO) by 202% in the second quarter in addition to starting their stake in WNR. To see what other top hedge funds have been buying & selling, subscribe to our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter as a new issue is due out in just a week and a half.

Hedge Fund Third Point Reduces Equity Exposure For Third Consecutive Month

For the month of July, Dan Loeb's hedge fund firm Third Point offshore fund was up 0.3%. Year to date, they are up 6.9% versus 3.9% for the S&P 500. Seeing 18.4% annualized returns, it's no wonder that Third Point is closed to new investors.

Net Exposures Down Yet Again

Loeb's hedge fund is only 23.3% net long equities (39.7% long and -16.4% short). In June, we detailed how Third Point reduced equity exposure again. July marks the third consecutive month in which Loeb's firm has reduced risk.

In July they ratcheted down exposure from 30.7% net long down to only 23.3% net long. Caution is the name of the game for Loeb's firm and he outlines the rationale in his quarterly letter.

Their largest net long equity exposure comes in the energy sector at 6.1%, as well as consumer and basic materials each at 5.7%. They are net short technology and utilities.

In credit, Third Point is 20.9% net long (32.2% long and -11.3% short). They continue to be net short government issues and their largest net long exposure comes in asset backed securities (ABS).


Third Point's Top Positions

1. Gold
2. Delphi Corp
3. El Paso (EP)
4. CIT Group (CIT ~ multiple securities held)
5. Mosaic (MOS)

Loeb's stake in MOS is brand new and the thesis on Mosaic is detailed in Third Point's Q2 letter. They also continue to hold Delphi, a position numerous hedgies like.

In the past month, Third Point's top winners include gold, Peregrine Metals (PGM), CVR Energy (CVI), Delphi, and an interest rate hedge. Their top losers included NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), CIT Group (CIT), Pall Corp (PLL), Health Net (HNET), and Brenntag AG (BNR).

Shares of NXPI have traded down almost 43% in the past 3 months. Many see this company as a play on the future 'mobile wallet' due to its near field communications (NFC) chip that allows transactions between phones. Third Point has been able to offset the negative performance of this company with gains in other areas.

Third Point Buys Mosaic (MOS) & Sara Lee (SLE): Q2 Letter

Dan Loeb's hedge fund firm Third Point is out with its second quarter letter. Months ago, Loeb said he would no longer be writing the quarterly letters but his displeasure with the government caused him to take to the keyboard again.

Loeb notes that while he is typically a bottom-up investor, the economic and political environment require that investors pay attention to and incorporate macro factors into their thought process.

As we already pointed out last month, the hedge fund reduced equity exposure and the letter confirms this further. Third Point's rationale:

"Beginning in April, we concluded that the equity market no longer offered compelling upside considering the S&P was up ~9% YTD despite the heightening of the issues noted above as well as the Japanese earthquake and tsunami disasters. Towards the end of the quarter, we started to increase our single name short equity portfolio, largely because we saw that the market had started to reward individual stock picking for the first time in months, as correlations finally started to fall."

And even though they reduced net equity exposure, they did do some buying in the quarter:

Mosaic (MOS)

The fertilizer giant intrigued Loeb's fund due to the removal of a large overhang: the Cargill family selling their stake in the company. Third Point acquired their stake via a secondary at $65 per share. They have also subsequently added to their position during the market volatility.

They like grain and corn fundamentals and think potash fertilizer has "yet to recover to trend-line levels of demand."

Sara Lee (SLE)

They already owned this position, but added to their stake in Q2. Third Point believes that the market underestimates the company's earnings power and thinks both of their businesses (meat and coffee) could be attractive to strategic buyers.


Embedded below is Third Point's Q2 letter to investors (email readers come to the site to view it):



For more from Third Point, check out Dan Loeb's recommended reading list.

James Altucher Likes Agriculture, Infrastructure for Obama Presidency

James Altucher, managing partner of Formula Capital recently sat down with Aaron Task over at Tech Ticker to discuss stocks poised to benefit from an Obama Presidency, now that we know he will for sure be in office. Altucher mentions he likes agriculture and infrastructure and seems them both as very cheap. Specifically, he likes Mosaic (MOS) and KBR (KBR). Also, he mentioned to check out closed end municipal bond funds, seeing how he anticipates Obama to raise taxes on dividends. Lastly, Altucher was not all that bullish on alternative energy, claiming, "The second there is an alt energy bill, oil will fall to $40 -- then we don't need it anymore." You can check out his thoughts here.

Odds & Ends

I've got a couple random/unrelated topics to cover so I just decided to mash them all up into one post.

1. Capitulation. Everyone and their dog is looking for it, and frankly, that makes me think we won't get it for some time. If everyone is waiting for everyone else to panic and sell, then who is actually going to be selling? It used to be that not many people paid attention to the Volatility Index (aka the VIX), but as the year has gone by, you see more and more people referencing it. It now appears that literally everyone is watching it. And, apparently there is a disconnect between the VIX and this market tumble (more on that later). At any rate, the VIX did spike on this morning's sour open. It spiked to 31 but then quickly retreated back down, laying down a nasty inverted hammer on the chart. We'll see how the rest of the day/week plays out.

(click to enlarge)

2. Mosaic (MOS) has sold its nitrogen business (Saskferco) to Yara International for $1.6 Billion (courtesy of Bloomberg here). I suggested in one of my previous posts that MOS was essentially 'top-ticking' or selling the top in the nitrogen trade, as they wanted to focus more on potash and phosphate. Although the stock is down on the news, this is a very buyable dip, as it will further their bottom line down the road. Nitrogen, although a strong part of their business, is not seeing the ideal pricing power conditions as their potash segment is. Again, my thesis on these fertilizer plays all along has been to play them due to their potash exposure; nitrogen and phosphate were only added bonuses. The potash segment has very limited supply and strong demand worldwide. And, add in the fact that new supply cannot be brought to market for years, and you've got the ideal combination for $$$.

3. Google (GOOG). On the chart, many of you know that this thing has a nasty gap to fill all the way down around $480. Yesterday, GOOG broke down past $520 and gave me the signal to short. However, they do have earnings coming up and that could obviously be a catalyst in either direction. So, for the mean time, instead of straight up shorting GOOG, I've put an option strangle to work. (If you're unfamiliar with a strangle, it's essentially an options position that makes money only if the underlying stock makes a big move in either direction. You can read more about it via Investopedia here). I was going to play a straddle on this name, but GOOG options are ridiculously expensive and so even playing a strangle (typically cheaper since you're using out of the money options) is still expensive. So, yesterday, I entered into the strangle of GOOG 480 Puts and 560 Calls. Obviously, with GOOG trading down again today, the put side of the trade is making money, while the call side is not. If GOOG continues to trend downward, I may just take profits before earnings altogether. But, we'll just have to see how that plays out. I had drawn up this chart last week and intended to post it as a short, but I completely forgot. This first chart is the GOOG chart I drew last week. The second chart will show where GOOG sits currently. Since marking on that first chart, GOOG has fallen from $560 to $505, a pretty strong move to the downside. Here's the chart I drew a little while back.

(click to enlarge)

And, here's what GOOG looks like now.

(click to enlarge)

So, as you can see, GOOG has fallen pretty hard and could very well continue down and fill the gap at $480, as that is our final goal. Keep in mind though that earnings are coming up and could provide a massive catalyst for this stock to swing violently in either direction. That's why instead of just shorting it, that I have put on the strangle, to hedge myself.

4. The trend (is still) your friend. Seeing as how that phrase was the Quote of the Week for this week, I found it very appropriate to post yet another great up-trending chart in this shitty market. Central European Distribution Company (CEDC) came up while I was researching new plays in Central Europe/Eastern Europe/Russia. Taken from Google Finance:

"Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC) is an integrated spirit beverages business. The Company produces vodka at two distilleries in Poland and is a distributor of alcoholic beverages. The Company is also an importer of spirits, wine and beer in Poland. Its products are also exported out of Poland. CEDC offers a portfolio of alcoholic beverages with over 700 brands."

I'll be doing more research on this name, but you simply cannot ignore a great chart. Pull up any time frame: 1 month, 3 month, 6 months, 1 year.... they all look the same:

(click to enlarge)

That wraps up the odds & ends for now.

Monthly Performance: June 08

Paul Kedrosky posted up this lovely breakdown of the worst "June" returns on the Dow in History. And, although the month indeed was bad, it didn't necessarily feel that way. We never saw true panic, we never saw capitulation. Instead, we saw stocks slowly bleed it out. And, that led us to a month where the S&P500 was -8.60%. And, halfway through the year, the S&P sits at -12.5% YTD. But, for those of us with some sense and a solid gameplan, the month wasn't so bad. Why, might you ask? Well, because we saw this coming a mile away. We know the U.S. is still in a recession, we know the housing sector is accelerating to the downside, we know oil is setting record highs, and we know that the financials are still sorting through the rubble of the credit crisis. We are by no means out of the woods yet and my portfolio has been based on that for quite some time. I figured I would start posting up my monthly performance here, to stick with my theme of complete transparency. (Well that and the fact that I had a pretty damn good month and this seemed like an ideal time to brag, er I mean start logging my results on the blog haha). For the month of June, MarketFolly's portfolio was up 5.56%. And, year to date, the portfolio is up 10.5%.

Since I've now turned to focusing on absolute return rather than relative return, I'll leave you to do the math in terms of outperformance. And, as a matter of fact, after having some discussions with numerous absolute return portfolio managers, I've come to the conclusion that people still pay attention to the indexes no matter what. Even if absolute return technically has no metric for comparison, you still want to be outperforming the next best alternative (ie: stocks, bonds, cash, or other alternatives). And, the next best alternative could very well be the indexes on certain months, you never know. In the end, its all about semantics and just depends on the portfolio managers absolute return goals. There will always be people who will want to compare results to the indexes just because that is what has been ingrained in everyone's mind to begin with. As long as I know my goals in running an absolute return portfolio, then relevant return is meaningless and is just a moot talking point. I'm very happy with my results thus far, but I can merely attribute it to creating a gameplan and sticking with it. I didn't panic and I stayed disciplined. That is one of the most valuable lessons you can learn when dealing with financial markets.

The macro themes we've seen have continued to play out. Housing sucks, financials suck, the dollar sucks, the economy sucks, and commodities are roaring. Many of the gains for me this month are attributed to taking a strong round of profits in my Natural Gas (UNG, CHK) and Coal (ACI, MEE) names. Additionally, I locked in profits in the fertilizer plays at the new highs (POT, MOS) and then am starting to buy them back here down at these levels. Additionally, I have been shorting the market itself through SDS, which is the etf for Ultrashorting the S&P500. It seeks twice the inverse performance of the S&P. So, if the index goes down 1%, SDS should theoretically go up 2%. I usually use this (and a few other etf's) as a 'hedge' in my portfolio, layering in and out when the market makes drastic moves one way or the other. For instance, in the bear market rally we saw leading up to this recent decline, I was adding heavily to the SDS, seeing as I knew we were still in a bear markets and the charts showed this clear as daylight. And, I posted this chart a few weeks back reminding everyone we were still in a downtrend here :
And, if we pulled up that same chart now, you would see we have fallen another 50 points on the S&P. The green circle below shows what happened to the S&P in the few weeks after I posted the original chart above. Here's what things look like currently:
In the end, everything played out like we anticipated and locked in some nice gains. I have now been taking profits in SDS as I feel we are due for an oversold bounce (and apparently everyone else feels this way too, which is concerning.... but that's a whole different conversation).

The rest of the gains this month were due to some shorter term moves I had made, most notably with Capital One (COF). I have been in and out of this name on the short side, as I feel they truly have the most exposure to the 'next leg' of problems in the financials: increasing credit card receivables/rising delinquincies & bad auto loans. COF has exposure to both and is having problems. This name has been a major component of the short side of my portfolio, to ensure I'm truly hedged. And, what better way to reap the gains than to short a financial, right? My thoughts exactly. (Note: I've covered the last of my position last week and I am no longer short this name, but I will be looking to re-short on any major pops). I didn't actually blog post about this name in my portfolio, but I did 'tweet' about it numerous times on twitter (here's an example and here's another). So, this just goes to show why you should be following me on twitter! Or at the very least, reading the twitter posts that stream as I post them on the upper right hand corner of my blog. Here's a chart outlining my entry and exit from this name:So, as you can see, all I did was stick to the gameplan and watch the charts for excellent entry/exit points in terms of risk/reward. I realize that these plays could have easily gone against me and continued to rally. But, if they did, I would have been stopped out right above the moving averages, and no harm done. It's all about knowing your risk/reward before even entering a position. For me, this month can be summed up by patience. The whole rally in the indexes from the middle of March until May was simply a rally in the midst of a bear market. I waited patiently until it found resistance, and then entered some short positions in financials (COF) and the market in general (through SDS). I continued to hold my fertilizer, coal, natural gas, and resource plays as they continued to benefit while the overall market struggled. Now, having taken profits in these names, I'll be waiting for pullbacks to re-enter the strong sectors of the market.

Next up: July. Will we see an oversold bounce? Will we continue to bleed it out slowly? Who knows. All I know is I'll be monitoring things closely, waiting patiently to set up my next move based on what happens at this test of support/the March lows on the indexes.