John Paulson on Caesars, AngloGold Ashanti, & CVR Energy: Ira Sohn Presentation

We're posting up notes from the Ira Sohn Conference.  Paulson & Co founder John Paulson gave a presentation on three long ideas: Caesars (CZR), AngloGold Ashanti (AU) and CVR Energy (CVI).  Paulson is featured in the book, The Greatest Trade Ever.

Paulson's Three Long Ideas

Caesars (CZR): Stock with high option value. Was LBO. Common is only 7% of valuation, $1.7B, Opco Debt $16.9B, Net PropCo debt $4.8B. $23B total cap. So equity gets the upside. LBO guys put $6B in, now equity only $1.7B. Says they are turning around.

Stock owners have not only gaming properties, but Social gaming company worth $6-9, Online gaming could be $24 per share. Key is growth. Are seeing RevPAR growth. Added Octavius Tower. Adding Cleveland. 2013 LINQ in Vegas, Cincinnati.

Online gaming upside option. No debt due until 2015. Three years runway. 2007 they did $2.8B EBITDA, LBO at 11x. Guess they get back, adjusted to new facilities, $3.2B Likes hotels because the rates increase with inflation. Online gaming may be another $300M, so total to peak, get to $3.5, with 11x multiple stock is $138, a 10x upside. (that's way too rosy)


AngloGold Ashanti (AU): Pure gold upside. Been getting crushed, much worse than gold price, correlation has broken down. Bears say just buy the ETF. He says, you're paying more by doing that. Says you're getting the company at only $133 per proven reserves.  It's also worth highlighting that Paulson was buying fellow gold miner NovaGold Resources (NG) in April as well.  We've also previously posted a look at Paulson's gold fund.


CVR Energy (CVI): "A gift from Carl Icahn" Merger Arb transaction. Buy stock at $30.35, tender to offer at $30.00, cost of CCP is $0.35. "Contigent Cash Payment" rights. If they sell company for $36.15 CCP could be worth $6.15, with cost of $0.35, that's a 17.6x return.


P.S. - Don't miss other presentations from David Einhorn, Bill Ackman, Larry Robbins & more: notes from Ira Sohn Conference 2012.

David Tepper's Appaloosa Sells Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC)?

David Tepper's hedge fund Appaloosa Management filed their 13F early with the SEC and in it are some noteworthy moves. The filing reflects portfolio activity as of June 30th, but it does give us a glimpse as to what he was up to in the second quarter.

The big talking point here is that in the second quarter, Tepper sold 41% of his position in Bank of America (BAC), selling over 7.2 million shares. He also sold 5% of his position in Wells Fargo (WFC) and 6% of his position in Citigroup (C), his top equity holding at the end of Q2.

However, David Faber at CNBC is hearing that Tepper has since sold completely out of BAC and WFC in recent weeks. He also apparently sold a chunk of his stake in C too. Tepper has not confirmed this though.

Turning back to the factual information from the 13F we do have though, Tepper also sold 54% of his stake in Hewlett Packard (HPQ).

In terms of new positions, Appaloosa started new stakes in Mosaic (MOS), Western Refining (WNR) and Google (GOOG). It's likely that Appaloosa took advantage of the MOS secondary as Dan Loeb's Third Point also bought MOS. Tepper also bought more CVR Energy (CVI) which we already highlighted back in June.

On the long side, refining seems to be a big theme for Appaloosa as they ramped up their stake in Valero (VLO) by 202% in the second quarter in addition to starting their stake in WNR. To see what other top hedge funds have been buying & selling, subscribe to our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter as a new issue is due out in just a week and a half.

Hedge Fund Third Point Reduces Equity Exposure For Third Consecutive Month

For the month of July, Dan Loeb's hedge fund firm Third Point offshore fund was up 0.3%. Year to date, they are up 6.9% versus 3.9% for the S&P 500. Seeing 18.4% annualized returns, it's no wonder that Third Point is closed to new investors.

Net Exposures Down Yet Again

Loeb's hedge fund is only 23.3% net long equities (39.7% long and -16.4% short). In June, we detailed how Third Point reduced equity exposure again. July marks the third consecutive month in which Loeb's firm has reduced risk.

In July they ratcheted down exposure from 30.7% net long down to only 23.3% net long. Caution is the name of the game for Loeb's firm and he outlines the rationale in his quarterly letter.

Their largest net long equity exposure comes in the energy sector at 6.1%, as well as consumer and basic materials each at 5.7%. They are net short technology and utilities.

In credit, Third Point is 20.9% net long (32.2% long and -11.3% short). They continue to be net short government issues and their largest net long exposure comes in asset backed securities (ABS).


Third Point's Top Positions

1. Gold
2. Delphi Corp
3. El Paso (EP)
4. CIT Group (CIT ~ multiple securities held)
5. Mosaic (MOS)

Loeb's stake in MOS is brand new and the thesis on Mosaic is detailed in Third Point's Q2 letter. They also continue to hold Delphi, a position numerous hedgies like.

In the past month, Third Point's top winners include gold, Peregrine Metals (PGM), CVR Energy (CVI), Delphi, and an interest rate hedge. Their top losers included NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), CIT Group (CIT), Pall Corp (PLL), Health Net (HNET), and Brenntag AG (BNR).

Shares of NXPI have traded down almost 43% in the past 3 months. Many see this company as a play on the future 'mobile wallet' due to its near field communications (NFC) chip that allows transactions between phones. Third Point has been able to offset the negative performance of this company with gains in other areas.

Dan Loeb's Third Point Reduces Equity Exposure

Dan Loeb's Third Point Offshore Fund finished May -0.4% and year-to-date is up 9.7%. Managing around $4 billion, the hedge fund is closed to new investors and has seen 18.8% annualized returns.


Equity Exposure

The month of May was a volatile one for the markets in general and hedge funds were no exception. Third Point ratcheted down exposure to equities as they were 42.6% net long at the end of the month (60.3% long and -17.7% short). The month prior, the hedge fund was 46.8% net long equities, marking a 4.2% decrease in exposure from April to May.

Third Point's largest exposure this time around continued to be the consumer sector at 9.5% net long and basic materials at 8.2% net long.

Credit Exposure

In credit, Third Point was 34.4% long, -7.7% short, leaving them 26.7% net long. This is down from 29.4% net long the month prior. Their largest exposure in this segment continues to be asset backed securities.

Top Positions

Third Point's top holdings at the end of May were:

1. Gold
2. Delphi
3. El Paso (EP)
4. Technicolor (Multiple Securities owned)
5. CVR Energy (CVI)

Earlier today we posted up that David Tepper's Appaloosa Management recently bought more CVR Energy. Also, we highlighted how Delphi will be going public and there are numerous hedge funds involved in that name as well.

In the month of May, Third Point's top winners included: Delphi, El Paso, Short A, Short B, and Aveta.

The hedge fund's top losing positions for the month included: NXP Semiconductor (NXPI), NewPage, Williams Companies (WMB), Big Lots (BIG), and gold.

For rationale behind some of their investments, check out Third Point's investor letter.

Tepper's Appaloosa Boosts CVR Energy (CVI) Position

David Tepper's hedge fund Appaloosa Management recently disclosed an updated position in CVR Energy (CVI). Due to a 13G filed with the SEC, Appaloosa now shows a 8.26% ownership stake in CVI with 7,141,434 shares. This latest disclosure reflects trading as of May 23rd, 2011.

This marks an increase in their position size to the tune of almost 360% as they owned only 1,556,374 shares at the end of the first quarter. Interestingly enough, a selling stockholder affiliated with Kelso & Company LP shed 7,988,179 shares of CVI to Goldman Sachs on May 23rd.

Spin-Out of Fertilizer Business

The company had a secondary offering in February and numerous hedge funds were involved. Dan Loeb's Third Point, in particular, bought CVI under the spin-out thesis.

CVR Energy filed an IPO for its fertilizer business and will pursue an MLP structure for this offering. Hedge funds invested in the stock believe this new offering will garner a high valuation due to high demand for yield in the current low interest rate environment. You can see the full rationale for buying CVR Energy here.

Per Google Finance, CVR Energy is "an independent petroleum refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. In addition, the Company owns all of the interests (other than the managing general partner interest and associated incentive distribution rights (the IDRs)) in CVR Partners, LP (the Partnership), a limited partnership which produces nitrogen fertilizers in the form of ammonia, and a solution of urea and ammonium nitrate in water used as a fertilizer (UAN)."

To see the rest of David Tepper's investments, head to the brand new issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter.

Third Point Reveals Technicolor Position: Latest Exposure Levels

Dan Loeb's hedge fund Third Point returned 1.4% in April and is now up 10.1% for the year. His Offshore Fund has returned 19% annualized, manages $6.8 billion, and recently closed to investors.


Equity Exposure

As of the end of April, Third Point's largest net long equity exposure was in the consumer sector at 10% and energy at 9.5% according to their latest monthly factsheet. Their overall equity exposure is 60.2% long, -13.4% short, leaving them net long 46.8%. This marks a slight increase in net long exposure from last month, up 4.6%. In this arena, Third Point is largely focused on spin-outs.

Credit Exposure

Third Point is overall 29.4% net long credit with their largest exposure coming from mortgage backed securities at 17.1% and distressed at 11.9%. These levels remain largely the same from last month. They also remain short government credit at -4.7%.

Top Positions

- Gold
- Delphi Corp
- El Paso (EP)
- NXP Semiconductor (NXPI) ~ multiple securities held
- Technicolor (TCH) ~ multiple securities held

This is the first time we've seen a mention of Technicolor in their portfolio. Notably absent from their top positions this time around is Chrysler, which was their third largest holding last month. Delphi continues to be a top holding for Third Point and a few days ago we highlighted that David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital bought Delphi recently as well.

Third Point's winners in the past month include gold, LyondellBasell (LYB), NXPI, Delphi, and El Paso (EP). Losing positions in April include short A, Icelandic Banks (debt), CVR Energy (CVI), Sunoco (SUN), and NewPage.

You can read Third Point's theses on CVR Energy and El Paso here.

Third Point Focused on Spin-Outs & Closes to New Investors

Dan Loeb's hedge fund Third Point returned 8.6% in the first quarter of 2011 and manages $6.7 billion. Most recently, we noted Third Point's reduced net long exposure. Last time around, Loeb mentioned he would no longer be penning the letter to investors, but we still get some color on their portfolio construction and where they're finding value.

In particular, Third Point is focused on spin-outs as the Q1 letter details:

"At our annual Investor Day in January, we told you that we were enthusiastic about equities in a market poised for a wave of corporate transactional activity on a scale not seen since 2007. A combination of factors including record high levels of cash on corporate balance sheets, highly incentivized LBO firms, the return of cheap debt financing, and anemic top line growth is conspiring to make this an ideal period for the kind of special situation equity opportunities that are a core part of our strategy."

Loeb's hedge fund has focused specifically on the energy sector, owning positions in Williams Companies (WMB), El Paso (EP), and CVR Energy (CVI). We highlighted that Third Point started a position in El Paso in February.

Regarding Williams Companies (WMB), Third Point originally invested in November and has since added to the position as the company announced plans to split itself via an IPO of its E&P business in the second half of the year and a full spin of the remaining business in early 2012.

This is the type of event-driven investing Third Point loves. Besides Third Point, numerous other prominent hedge funds own a position in Williams Companies. You can read an in-depth analysis of WMB by subscribing to our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter as we featured the stock in our most recent issue.

Also of note is the fact that Third Point will close to new investors effective June 1st. They believe this is a prudent time and this is not the first time they've done so.

Embedded below is Third Point's first quarter letter to investors (email readers come to the site to read it):



To learn how to invest like Dan Loeb, check out his recommended reading list.