Quincy Lee's Teton Capital Trims Xoom Position

Quincy Lee's hedge fund Teton Capital Partners (Ancient Art LP) has filed an amended 13D with the SEC on its position in Xoom (XOOM).  Per the filing, Teton now owns 4.9% of XOOM with 1,897,323 shares.

Teton recently sold shares in late May and early June between $18.8514 and $21.0973.  Since the end of the first quarter, they've reduced their position size by 336,514 shares.  Year-to-date, XOOM shares have traded from around $18 in January up to recent levels of around $21.64.

Loosely speaking, the thesis on this name is that Xoom can take market share in the money transfer business with their digital offering from traditional players such as Western Union and Moneygram.

About Teton Capital / Ancient Art LP

Quincy Lee founded Teton Capital after working at publicly traded Rackspace.  According to The Economist, Teton returned 21% a year between 2001 and 2011.  Teton/Ancient Art is based in Austin, Texas.

About Xoom

Per Google Finance, Xoom is "engaged in the digital consumer-to-consumer international money transfer business. The Company offers money transfer services from the United States to around 32 countries and its cross-border bill payment services from the United States to approximately five countries. Xoom's solutions offer its customers a way to send money to, and pay bills for family and friends from any Internet-enabled location. The Company's operating platform provides various solutions for transferring funds internationally, such as origination, funding, disbursement and transaction processing. The Company's technology platform includes a customer interface which enables customers to send transactions from its Website, mobile Website or mobile application, using a computer, a tablet or a mobile phone; a risk management system; a transaction processing platform, and a disbursement integration platform."

Boston Investment Conference Notes 2014: Summary of Stock Picks

Today we're posting notes from the 2014 Boston Investment Conference that recently took place.  The event features hedge fund managers pitching their latest ideas to benefit the Boston Children's Hospital. 

This event follows "Chatham House Rules" which means unfortunately that the pitches will not be linked to any particular speaker.  That said, if you look at some 13F filings, you might be able to guess who pitched what.

Speakers (In No Particular Order)

David Abrams, Abrams Capital
Will Danoff, Fidelity Investments
Jason Capello, Merchants' Gate Capital
William Duhamel, Route One Investment
James Grant, Grant's Interest Rate Observer
Jeremy Grantham, GMO
Jonathon Jacobson, Highfields Capital
Alex Klabin, Senator Investment Group
Seth Klarman, Baupost Group
Beeneet Kothari, Tekne Capital
James Litinsky, JHL Capital Group
Michael Lowenstein, Kensico Capital
Joshua Resnick, Jericho Capital
Barry Sternlicht, Starwood Capital


Notes From The Boston Investment Conference 2014

First Pitch: Brookdale Senior Living (BKD):  EV/EBITDA (2015) about 11.5.  $33-34 stock price: 6B market cap, 6B debt with 12B EV.  He likes the services businesses they are developing.  They offer a premium product.  There is limited supply and strengthening demand and demographics.  They recently purchased #2 operator and believes there are cost synergies.  They own 40% of their real estate and have option to buy more. 

They have 10% market share in their industry and are 4X bigger than #2.  The industry has years of consolidation in front of it.  Lack of current supply a result of over-building in the late 1990s and it took about 15 years to absorb this.  Supply shortage is driven by demographics.  He compared FFO multiple to multi-family housing operators: 10.6   c/w 20.2 

Their services business includes home health care, hospice care, car/transportation services and physical therapy, speech therapy and occupational therapy.  “They have a captive customer base of 100,000 high net worth individuals.”  They can institute group purchasing and get bulk discounts.  He believes their real estate is worth $27-35 share.  In a few years their operating business can produce   $750M EBITDA and 8X this gives you a stock price in the 50s.  They can potentially spin out their operating company.  He talked about a proxy statement filed in June that had some interesting information.


Second Pitch: Ctrip.com (CTRP):  Could be a double in 2-3 years.  $9B market cap.  50% market share.  15% growth.  Tourism is the new luxury in China vs. branded goods.  Online travel penetration is 17% vs. 45% in US.  Company can grow with both secular growth and increased online penetration.  C-trip is synonymous with travel in China.  Because of competition, they were spending heavily on IT, sales, engineers and to recruit more hotels.  This has affected their margins.  Compared their gross margins and (I believe) their operating margins to other companies:

PCLN  EXPE  CTRP('14)  CTRP('08)
84        78        70               73
44        25        12.5            38.2

So the company still has high gross margins and their increased spending is affecting SGA.  According to the investor, 2014 is their last big year of investment spending and the 'heavy lifting' will have been done.

CTRP has bought stakes in multiple travel related businesses that are marked at cost on their balance  sheet.  Investor values those stakes at $2B giving company an adjusted market value of $7B.  PCLN is the 800 lb. gorilla in online travel space and they are partnering with CTRP and purchased a 10% stake   They are expecting an IPO of E-HI (phonetic spelling), one of their travel related companies, in early 2015. They expect earnings to go from $2 to $4 in the next 3 years.  They value $4 at 25X (a smaller multiple than current one) plus $20/share in investment stakes representing $120/share or about double current share price.  He considers it a high growth business.  He notes that in 2009, PCLN had a $7B market cap and now-5 years later-has a $60B market cap.


Third Pitch: Western Union (WU):  They will earn about $1.50 this year and since they have some excess depreciation FCF will be higher.  Next year will be better.  Have about a 3% yield.  They had problems in the past by pricing their product too high.  They took a price cut.  But this mess creates the current opportunity.  A similar thing happened to MO many years ago.  They cut prices which freaked out the market but did well from there.  Talked about a competitor XOOM but they have a narrow market.  Thinks WU can use technology to their advantage.  Their expenses are high because of compliance costs but he feels this can ultimately deepen their competitive moat.  Their volumes are growing and so should their earnings. 


Fourth Pitch: Sberbank.  This is a Russian bank.  Investing is simple but not easy.  They have NIM of over 5%.  They compare favorably to WFC on most metrics.  He says they have terrific management.  They have a 4.1% yield (but it may be cancelled).  They have over 100 million accounts.  Competitors are Alpha Bank and Bank of St. Petersburg.  He thinks situation with Russia should straighten out next year.  The sanctions will be under vote to be renewed on 7/31/15.  He feels there is no point for them to make concessions well before this.  “Everyone is a value investor until prices get really cheap.”  They have an unfair funding advantage.  They have 46% deposit share.  They don’t have to take high risk to get high returns (like Geico).  They can pick and choose among customers.  There is risk from falling oil and from the ruble.


Fifth Pitch: Cogent (CCOI):  It has a $2B EV and is involved with Internet connectivity.  It has corporate customers ($700/month) and net-centric content providers like Netflix (NFLX).  They have a high quality network.  Apparently $14B of invested capital with the lowest cost network.  20-25% demand growth.  The industry is consolidating with higher pricing and profitability and more efficient cap-ex.  Should be strong revenue growth with capex going down. 

Talked about net neutrality debate.  ISPs are backing away from pay prioritization since alternative is regulation from FCC.  In worst case, sees Cogent losing 4% of revenues.  Mentioned “take or pay agreements”.  He thinks that pay prioritization will likely be banned.  He sees company returning about $2.70 in capital: ½ in dividends and ½ in buybacks (total 8.1%).  He thinks the stock can trade into the low $60s (currently $34 ~ not sure when or what assumptions he has made). 


Sixth Pitch: Ophthotech (OPHT):  A speculative biotech play.  Drug in pipeline is Fovista.  I believe it is a platelet development growth factor inhibitor used in conjuction with anti-VEGF (vascular endothelial  growth factor) drug to treat wet AMD, which is some type of macular degeneration. 

Says leading cause of blindness in 55 and older population in US and EU.  Has market cap of $1.5B and EV of $1B (about $500M cash)  Has another drug called Zimura, which is in phase 2.  Cheap because no near term catalyst.  Feels probability of approval is mispriced.  Novartis made a deal with company for their ex-USA licensing rights with possible $1B milestone   payments.  He feels this has de-risked the investment.  A launch could occur 2017-2019.


Seventh Pitch: China Mobile (CHL): Largest mobile company and has over 800 million subscribers.  Trades at 4.3x 2015 EBITDA and 3.4% dividend yield.  75% owned by China; 25% publicly traded.  Has $73b in cash.

Has the world's leading 4G network.  They previously had TD-SCDMA network that was disappointing.  Now 4G with global standard TD-LTE.  China Mobile has one year head start over competitors China Telecom and China Unicom.  He expects data usage to "explode" and expects capex to decline materially.  National Tower Co is a separate company that may be spun out that will be very valuable. 

He expects ARPU, 4G and data revenues to ramp up making up for compression in voice and SMS.  Margins should improve.


Eighth Pitch: HDFC Bank (HDB):  This is a bank in India and he likes the country overall.  Thinks it is a high quality bank at 16x earnings and notes that Modi is pro-business.


Winning Student Presentation: Short Diamond Resorts (DRII).  (Very short presentation and did not catch gist of the thesis)
 

This concludes notes from the 2014 Boston Investment Conference.  If you missed it, we've also posted notes from the following recent hedge fund conferences:

- Invest For Kids Chicago Notes: Ackman, Robbins, Zell & more

- Sohn San Francisco Notes: Ubben, Billick, McGuire & more

- Capitalize For Kids Sohn Canada Notes: Ainslie, Dinan, Robbins

- Summary of Stock Picks From Robin Hood Investors' Conference

- Great Investors' Best Ideas Dallas Notes: Einhorn, Perry, Ackman & more

- InvestPitch 2014: Stock Picks From Emerging Hedge Fund Managers

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 9/17/14

Edge, time arbitrage and the shame of short-term thinking [Lux Capital]

A fireside chat with Charlie Munger [WSJ]

Buffett on market valuation [Brooklyn Investor]

Bears at their lowest level since 1987, now what? [Yahoo]

8 lessons from the first year of a registered investment advisory firm [Reformed Broker]

Competition is for losers [Peter Thiel]

An independent Scotland could become an energy powerhouse [Fortune]

Britain needs greater unity not a messy break-up [George Soros]

The tollbooth businesses of Visa & Mastercard [Scuttlebutt Investor]

A discussion on Apple Pay [Twitter]

Why banks are buying into Apple Pay [American Banker]

Thoughts on what the Apple Watch means [Daring Fireball]

Hermes takes the long view in China [FT]

Inflection point for Western Union? [YGC]

Alibaba's coming out party & valuation [Aswath Damodaran]

Alibaba IPO is a bonanza for select firms [WSJ]

On the rise of NY regulator Benjamin Lawsky [Bloomberg]

There is no bond bubble [Barrons]

Notes From Value Investing Congress Las Vegas 2013: Day 2

Yesterday we posted up some quick notes from day 1 of the 2013 Value Investing Congress in Las Vegas and today we'll highlight key takeaways from day 2 below:


Whitney Tilson, Kase Capital: AIG, Hertz (HTZ)

He talked about how American International Group (AIG) is still a position he likes as it's still cheap and the company has been streamlined to something much easier to understand and there's been a lot of advancement since the financial crisis and even since last year.  It's around 14% of his portfolio and was his largest position as of last month.  Tilson also likes his long of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A / BRK.B) and recently adjusted his intrinsic value figure to just north of $193,000.  Additionally, he mentioned he's started a new position in Hertz (HTZ) and you can read the pitch on Hertz in this newsletter that convinced him.


Guy Gottfried, Rational Investment Group: WPX Energy (WPX)

His pitch was on WPX Energy, a spin-off from Williams Companies last year.  He says it trades at 8x free cashflow and .66x book value.  Gottfried feels it's a very cheap stock for a play on natural gas that doesn't require gas prices to head higher.


Mark Boyar, Boyar Value Group: Weight Watchers (WTW), Dole Foods (DOLE), Western Union (WU)

He thinks we might be in the midst of multiple expansion.  Boyar likes Weight Watchers (WTW) as a play on the weight management industry and notes it's down 50% over the past 12 months.  He also pitched Dole Foods (DOLE) as the company reduced its debt load by selling the packaged foods business.  His third and final pick was Western Union (WU).


Vitaliy Katsenelson, Investment Management Associates: Whistler Blackcomb (WB.TO)

He said that profit growth is slowing down and that the market is actually getting expensive on a P/E basis.  Katsenelson argued that there's no secular bull market, at least not yet.  In the mean time, he likes stocks with solid dividends and says that the vast majority of returns in sideways markets are derived from dividends.  He's the author of The Little Book of Sideways Markets, by the way.  His pick was a high dividend payer (over 7%) in Whistler Blackcomb, the owner of the popular ski resort.  He likes their lower costs due to no property development etc.


Zeke Ashton, Centaur Capital Partners: Fidelity National (FNF), First American (FAF)

He emphasized the importance of learning from mistakes.  While you will encounter your own mistakes as an investor, it's also easy to learn from others' mistakes too.  Ashton argued that emotional mistakes are much more prevalent than analytical ones and so obviously behavioral finance is an important part of investing.  As far as current opportunities in the market go, he's having a hard time finding good ones as so many shares have been bid up.  He's not a big fan of homebuilders but if you want a play on housing, he said to look at the title insurers as a proxy with lower risk.  His picks were Fidelity National (FNF) and First American (FAF).


Joe Altman & Chris Kyriopoulos, COMPOUND Capital: TARP Warrants, Nathan's (NATH)

They launched their fund at a hell of a time: during the financial crisis when Lehman Brothers failed.  These two mentioned that they like TARP warrants, which we'd note has been a hedge fund favorite (especially AIG and BAC warrants, though Compound prefers AIG and COF ones).  They note these are liquid plays that are often underfollowed.  However, their pitch today was Nathan's (NATH), the popular hot dog proprietor.


David Hurwitz, SC Fundamental: Long KISCO, Short Salesforce.com (CRM)

He pitched one long: KISCO in Korea (001940.KRX) and one short: Salesforce.com (CRM).  He says KISCO is much cheaper than CRM.


Chris Mittleman, Mittleman Brothers:  Revlon (REV)

He pitched this as a turnaround story, praising management for a good effort.  Ron Perelman owns a ton of the company and that's partially the reason it's so cheap.  Mittleman likes that it's essentially a recession resistant business.  A solid portion of their revenues come from Walmart.  He also mentioned Carmike Cinemas (CKEC).


Ori Eyal, Emerging Value Capital: Hilan Tech

Eyal talked about the opportunities to invest in Israel, somewhere he specializes in (launching the Emerging Value Israel Fund).  He says the country is stable and pro-business and has a growing economy.  He pitched Hilan Tech, which he dubbed the 'ADP of Israel.'  He says Israeli stocks on the whole are cheap as they've largely traded sideways the past few years.


Harris Kupperman, Mongolia Growth Group: Real Estate

He touched on how there's too many investors out there all doing the exact same thing (i.e. herding).  One place that there certainly aren't many investors involved is Mongolia.  He says the country's GDP will explode 10x over the next decade or so, creating a big opportunity and he recommended real estate there.


For more from this event, head to notes from day 1 of the Value Investing Congress.

Delivering Alpha Best Ideas Panel: Cooperman, Chanos, Feldstein & More

CNBC and Institutional Investor's Delivering Alpha Conference is going on today and we wanted to aggregate the highlights.  The "best ideas" panel included Omega Advisors' Leon Cooperman, Kynikos Associates' Jim Chanos, BlueMountain Capital's Andrew Feldstein, Queen Anne's Gate Capital's Kathleen Kelley, and BlackRock's Robert Kapito.

From the conference, we've also posted up the global opportunities panel as well as the chasing yield panel.


Leon Cooperman (Omega Advisors):  He pitched going long US stocks and called them the best house in the financial neighborhood, a tune he has been singing for well over a year.  However, he did make an excellent point that the maximum "pain trade" is going higher as tons of people are sitting on large sums of cash earning nothing. 

As for specific names he likes: Capital One (COF), Express Scripts (ESRX), Halliburton (HAL), Gannett (GCI), Kinder Morgan (KMI), MetLife (MET), Qualcomm (QCOM), Watson Pharma (WPI) and Western Union (WU).  He also likes AIA Group (1299.HK) traded in Hong Kong.

The Omega Advisors founder also continued to bash bonds, saying "buying US bonds right now is like walking in front of a steam roller and picking up dimes.  It's just not a good policy."

As far as the election goes, he thinks that if Romney wins, the market will spike by 150 points, but if Obama wins, it drifts lower. For more from the Omega man, we just posted up Leon Cooperman on 14 attributes that make a good portfolio manager.


Jim Chanos (Kynikos Associates):  The noted short-seller was out again negative on tech companies.  He mainly pitched the bear case on Hewlett Packard (HPQ), calling it a value trap.  We just recently highlighted Chanos' presentation on global value traps where HPQ was highlighted among other names.

He says that "when you lose the paradigm shift, you spend an awful lot of money defending what you have."  He compared HPQ to Eastman Kodak as the company is in declining businesses.

Chanos also touched on how instead of giving cash back to shareholders, companies will make value-destroying acquisitions.  He cited HPQ's buy of Autonomy last year.  The Kynikos man argues that HPQ has overspent on acquisitions and they're hiding research & development expenditures through them.

He's also negative on Dell (DELL) saying that the company finances its subprime customers (financing their revenue growth).  For more on Chanos we just recently posted up his thoughts on the psychology of short selling.


Andrew Feldstein (BlueMountain Capital):  He likes less liquid credit, angling for 8-12% returns over a 3-7 year time horizon.  He says you have to be patient as this opportunity is available due to everyone's obsession with liquidity (i.e. don't put your money here if you don't have an appropriate time horizon).  He mentioned bonds such as Prospect Medical if you can buy and hold.  Feldstein also mentioned he's less excited about legacy distressed assets in Europe.


Kathleen Kelley (Queen Anne's Gate Capital):  Formerly of Tudor and Kingdon, she pitched two ideas: short the British pound (against long US dollar) as well as short platinum, targeting 20-30% moves to the downside.  She wants to be long the USD against the sterling because the USD can be a commodity currency.

She also likes shorting platinum as there's an oversupply due to slowing Euro auto sales.  At the Ira Sohn conference two months ago, Ospraie's Dwight Anderson pitched going short platinum as well (in addition to going long palladium).


Robert Kapito (BlackRock):  He's going for the "income hog" approach by focusing on equity dividend funds, dividend stocks like AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Merck (MRK), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), high yield bond funds (or individual issues from Sprint, Ally) and municipal bonds such as the San Francisco Airport, New Jersey Tolls.  He thinks that default worry surrounding munis is "overrated."


Sources: Notes sent by readers, II's blog, @iimag,  @ldelevingne, @footnoted, @aarontask

For more from Delivering Alpha, head to the global opportunities panel (featuring Richard Perry) as well as the hunt for yield panel (featuring Marc Lasry)

Todd Combs of Castle Point Capital Joins Berkshire Hathaway as Investment Manager

Warren Buffett just announced that Todd Combs of hedge fund Castle Point Capital will be joining Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) as an investment manager at the end of the year. Buffett and Charlie Munger have been tracking Combs for three years and Combs has been running his hedge fund for the past five years.

We'd hypothesize that in the intermediate term, Combs has been brought on as a replacement for Lou Simpson since Combs is said to take control of part of Berkshire's investment portfolio. Simpson, who manages the investments for Berkshire's subsidiary, GEICO, is set to retire at the end of 2010 (the same time when Combs is set to start). On the notion that Combs could manage all of Berkshire's investments, Buffett said, "He’s got the best chance of being the successor, but if we find the right guy or gal, we’d take that person, too."

In the past, many have questioned Berkshire Hathaway's succession plans and this year there has been much talk of Li Lu joining as an investment manager. However, Buffett has just revealed that Lu will be staying with his own fund. Buffett also emphasized that Berkshire's succession will include one person handling the CEO role, and then multiple individuals could still act as investment managers in a multi-pronged approach.

Why Todd Combs?

This is the question many people are asking as he doesn't seem to be particularly well-known. Here are some potential reasons for the hire:

First, his focus on financials. Given the recent financial crisis, Combs' familiarity with these companies and niche focus on the sector gives him an advantage. In an increasingly complex financial world (derivatives, etc), Combs' expertise will come in handy considering Berkshire owns very large stakes in financials including: Wells Fargo (WFC), American Express (AXP), US Bancorp (USB), Moody's (MCO), and M&T Bank (MTB).

Second, his risk management skills. Buffett apparently described Combs' performance during the crisis as, "pretty good." According to Bloomberg, Castle Point returned +6.2% in 2009, -5.7% in 2008, +19% in 2007, and +13.6% in 2006. In Berkshire's 2007 shareholder letter, Buffett discussed the topic of hiring investment managers. In it, he said that this person needs to be, "genetically programmed to recognize and avoid risk, including those never before encountered." Given this stringent requirement, it's obvious that Buffett and company feel Combs possesses a risk management skill-set that is beyond satisfactory. (And speaking of risk, Buffett recently talked about his worst trade).

Third, his personality blends with Berkshire's culture. According to the New York Times, Buffett said that, "He’s always been enamored with Berkshire. I know he’ll be good, but he’s the right type of guy. We don’t want someone who’s trying to figure out if they can make $100 million with us, or $200 million with the next guy." And, this ties somewhat into the next reason.

Fourth, his age. Given the fact that Berkshire's leading men Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Lou Simpson are getting older, Berkshire wants to bring in younger talent that can add longevity to the company. At the young age of 39, Combs can slide into Berkshire's organization and stay there for many decades, just as Buffett has. And, based on his personality, it appears that Combs is in it for the long haul. Combs received his degree in finance and multinational business operations from Florida State University. He has experience working for Florida's comptroller as well as Progressive Insurance.

Castle Point Capital's Portfolio

Given Berkshire's stamp of approval, it's only appropriate to look under the hood at Todd Combs' hedge fund to see what he's invested in. The following were Castle Point's long equity holdings as of June 30th, 2010 according to their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The new disclosures reflecting their Q3 portfolio will be released in the middle of November.

Keep in mind that you can see what Berkshire Hathaway and prominent hedge funds are investing in via our newsletter, Hedge Fund Wisdom. But for the time being, here's Castle Point's $279 million in reported assets:

New Positions
CIT Group (CIT)
Broadridge Financial (BR)
Leucadia (LUK)
Hartford Financial (HIG)
PNC Financial (PNC)
Wells Fargo (WFC)
Chatham Lodging (CLDT)

Increased Positions
Blackrock (BLK): Increased by 78.5%
Aercap (AER): Increased by 78%
Mastercard (MA): Increased by 70%
State Street (STT): Increased by 60%
Genworth Financial (GNW): Increased by 53%
Charles Schwab (SCHW): Increased by 43%
Annaly Capital (NLY): Increased by 43%
Western Union (WU): Increased by 36%
US Bancorp (USB): Increased by 27.5%
Chubb (CB): Increased by 27.5%

Reduced Positions
JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Reduced by 39%
MB Financial (MBFI): Reduced by 21.5%
Goldman Sachs (GS): Reduced by 18.4%

Sold Out of Completely
Assurant (AIZ)
Signature Bank (SBNY)
Reinsurance Group America (RGA)
TD Ameritrade (AMTD)
First Citizens Bancshares (FCNCA)
Two Harbors Investment (TWO)

Top 25 Positions

1. US Bancorp (USB): 8.2% of reported assets
2. Mastercard (MA): 7.3%
3. State Street (STT): 6.8%
4. Western Union (WU): 6.5%
5. CME Group (CME): 5.1%
6. Renaissance Re (RNR): 5.1%
7. Pennymac Mortgage (PMAC): 4.6%
8. Chubb (CB): 4.6%
9. Starwood Property Trust (STWD): 4.5%
10. Annaly Capital Management (NLY): 4.4%
11. CIT Group (CIT): 4.3%
12. Progressive (PGR): 4.1%
13. JPMorgan Chase (JPM): 4.0%
14. Goldman Sachs (GS): 3.8%
15. Charles Schwab (SCHW): 3.6%
16. Broadridge Financial (BR): 3.5%
17. Aercap Holdings (AER): 3.4%
18. MB Financial (MBFI): 3.4%
19. Genworth Financial (GNW): 2.9%
20. United America Indemnity: 1.9%
21. Blackrock (BLK): 1.8%
22. Leucadia National (LUK): 1.8%
23. Hartford Financial (HIG): 1.6%
24. PNC Financial (PNC): 0.8%
25. First Financial (FFBC): 0.8%

As you can see, Castle Point's portfolio is very financial-laden. And, they share the same large position in US Bancorp (USB) as Berkshire Hathaway. We'd also point out Combs' preference for payment processors & money transfer services such as Mastercard (MA) and Western Union (WU). These types of companies have been long favored by hedge funds we track. The last takeaway here is that he runs a somewhat concentrated portfolio as well.

So, at least one of Berkshire's future investment managers seems to be in place. Li Lu appears to be out of the running. The question that remains is, will there be more managers added? Only time will tell. You can view Buffett's past comments on succession plans here as well as a video that examines potential Berkshire successors here.

For more on Berkshire's new hire, Carol Loomis at Fortune penned an article here.

John Griffin's Hedge Fund Blue Ridge Capital Fancies JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

This is the third quarter 2009 edition of our hedge fund portfolio tracking series. If you're unfamiliar with tracking hedge fund movements or SEC filings, check out our series preface on hedge fund 13F filings.

Next up in our series is John Griffin's hedge fund firm Blue Ridge Capital. Blue Ridge seeks absolute returns by investing in companies who dominate their industries and shorting the companies who have fundamental problems. Both Griffin at Blue Ridge and Lee Ainslie over at Maverick Capital like to effectively hedge with a solid balance of both long and short positions (like a true hedge fund... not like some of the crazy funds these days that aren't truly hedged).

Griffin graduated from the University of Virginia and received his MBA from Stanford. And, like many other hedge funds we cover on the site, Griffin is a 'Tiger Cub' as he previously plied his trade under Julian Robertson as his former right hand man at Tiger Management. For more on how to think and analyze like Griffin and Blue Ridge, check out their recommended reading lists. They've laid out their top reads in four categories presented below:

- Behavioral Finance reading
- Analytical recommended reads
- Economics recommendations
- Historical/Biographical recommendations

Keep in mind that the positions listed below were Blue Ridge's long equity, note, and options holdings as of September 30th, 2009 as filed with the SEC. We don't cover every single portfolio maneuver, as we instead focus on all the big moves. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted.


Some New Positions
Brand new positions that they initiated last quarter:
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX)
Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Equinix (EQIX)
Pennymac Mortgage (PMT) ~ we detailed this position previously when they first revealed it


Some Increased Positions
Positions they already owned but added shares to:
Range Resources (RRC): Increased by 174.7%
Express Scripts (ESRX): Increased by 147.4%
Western Union (WU): Increased by 105.4%
Monsanto (MON): Increased by 97.3%
iShares Silver Trust (SLV): Increased by 95.9%
Palm (PALM): Increased by 74%
Crown Castle (CCI): Increased by 61.3%
American Capital (ACAS): Increased by 27.5%
Amazon (AMZN): Increased by 31.7%


Some Reduced Positions
Stakes they sold shares in but still own:
RenaissanceRe (RNR): Reduced position by 75.3%
Broadridge Financial (BR): Reduced by 70.4%
Apple (AAPL): Reduced by 31.2%
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): Reduced by 18.5%


Removed Positions
Positions they sold out of completely:
Schering Plough (SGP)
Vale (VALE)
National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
State Street (STT)
Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Partnerre (PRE)
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)
VMWare (VMW)
Axis Cap (AXS)
Goldcorp (GG)
Newmont Mining (NEM)
Yamana Gold (AUY)
Harley Davidson (HOG)
Wells Fargo (WFC)
Novagold (NG)
Direxion Financial Bear 3x (FAZ)


Top 15 Holdings by percentage of assets reported on 13F filing

1. Apple (AAPL): 5.83%
2. JPMorgan Chase (JPM): 5.75%
3. Pfizer (PFE): 5.68%
4. Amazon (AMZN): 5.36%
5. Western Union (WU): 5.26%
6. Crown Castle (CCI): 4.92%
7. Millipore (MIL): 4.81%
8. CME Group (CME): 4.58%
9. Microsoft (MSFT): 4.29%
10. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO): 4.25%
11. Blackrock (BLK): 4.17%
12. Visa (V): 4.04%
13. Discovery Communications (DISCA): 3.47%
14. Express Scripts (ESRX): 3.36%
15. Covanta (CVA): 3.33%
    

The main portfolio change to make note of was their brand new stake in JPMorgan Chase (JPM) which they brought all the way up to their second largest holding at 5.75% of their reported longs. The trade in hedge fund land has been long moneycenter banks and short regional banks for some time and this position sticks to that theme. Additionally, Blue Ridge's stake in Apple (AAPL) is quite sizable. Even though they sold off a third of their position, it still remains their top holding at 5.83% of their holdings.

John Griffin's hedge fund also boosted their holdings in Express Scripts which is notable since many other Tiger Cub portfolios own this name including Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global. And while their brand new stake in Equinix (EQIX) only landed at their 26th largest holding, we highlight this because we've seen numerous hedge funds accumulating shares over the past few quarters and will have to see if they added more in the fourth quarter.

One other change we want to highlight Blue Ridge's fifth largest holding of Western Union (WU). While we've seen many hedge funds prefer payment processors that bear no credit risk such as Visa and Mastercard. Blue Ridge has taken a slightly different path here by playing a global money transfer company, a position they doubled down on in the third quarter. Blue Ridge also owns Visa at their 12th largest holding.

Lastly, we see they sold completely out of various gold miners and replaced those stakes with a single position in the Market Vectors Gold Miners exchange traded fund (GDX). So it seems they favored a pre-made basket via ETF instead of creating their own assembly of holdings. That pretty much wraps up the major changes in their portfolio this time around. To learn to invest like John Griffin, check out hedge fund Blue Ridge's recommended reading list.

Below you'll find graphical representations of the recent shifts in Blue Ridge Capital's portfolio courtesy of Drew Robertson at Financial Research Station:

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

Assets from the collective holdings reported to the SEC via 13F filing were $4.4 billion this quarter compared to $3.9 billion last quarter. Please keep in mind that when we state "percentage of portfolio," we are referring to the percentage of assets reported on the 13F filing. Since these filings only report longs (and not shorts or cash positions), the percentages are skewed. Also, please again note that these positions were as of September 30th so two months have elapsed and they've undoubtedly shifted around their portfolio since then.

This is just one of the 40+ prominent funds that we'll be covering in our Q3 2009 hedge fund portfolio series. We've already covered Seth Klarman's Baupost Group Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, John Paulson's firm Paulson & Co, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, Chase Coleman's Tiger Global and Brett Barakett's Tremblant Capital. Check back daily as we'll be covering new hedge fund portfolios.