market folly

We're posting up notes from the Invest For Kids Chicago Conference 2017.  Next up is Mathew Klody of MCN Capital who pitched a short of Domino's (DPZ).


Mathew Klody's Invest For Kids Chicago Presentation: Short Domino's

“Disruptors can be disrupted”.  Finding more shorts than longs right now.  The market seems to be a function of momentum, not valuation.   Look at the golden child > fallen angel phenomenon: Under Armour, Michael Kors, etc.

Patience is key – wait for the inflection point.  There is a shift coming for food. Domino’s (DPZ) is seen as a “disruptor” with strong comps/growth.   DPZ now has a demanding valuation and high leverage: >30x earnings, >20x EV/EBITDA, and 5.6x leverage.

Saturation? Management keeps moving the goalposts.  Declining international comps might be a sign.  Overexpansion? Pizza Hut finally turning the corner? Both would be a threat to DPZ.  Management uses high levels of debt to fund equity buybacks at ever higher prices.



For more from this event, check out the rest of the presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago 2017.