Dynamics of Gold, US Dollar & Gold Equities ~ market folly

Friday, March 19, 2010

Dynamics of Gold, US Dollar & Gold Equities

Since many hedge funds have exposure to gold in some fashion, we're posting up some interesting research from Raymond James on the topic of precious metals. Their commentary was published amidst the massive rally in the US dollar that definitely impacted the performance of gold. Given the action early in the year, they took advantage of the opportunity to look at the dynamic between gold, the US dollar, and gold related companies.

Maybe the most intriguing bit of research was their focus on equity stakes of gold miners and how they performed during the various swings in the price of gold. We note this correlation because while John Paulson's new gold fund will invest in derivatives on the price of gold, the main strategy is to acquire equity stakes in gold miners. Paulson is actually using these equity stakes as a wager against the US dollar. So, while many will examine the dynamic between the US dollar and gold, it is also worth taking a look at how shares of gold miners are affected as well.

If Paulson thinks the US dollar will decline, then he is essentially wagering that the price of gold will increase. More importantly though, it appears as if he thinks equity stakes in gold miners will produce greater returns based on the correlation. But, as you will see from the research below, you also have to look at company specific risk. This comes after Paulson & George Soros recently bought shares of a gold miner.

At any rate, you can examine Raymond James' research below. Of the companies they cover in the space, Aura, Osisko, Great Basin Gold, and San Gold performed the best "on average, across all three post 'risk aversion' rallies." The companies that suffered most over the big gold sell-off were Lake Shore, Golden Star, Aurizon and Yamana. Based on their research, Raymond James favors developers Anatolia and Detour, mid-tier producers San Gold and Crocodile, and large producers Agnico-Eagle and Eldorado.

Embedded below is Raymond James research on the dynamic between gold, the US dollar & gold related companies:

You can directly download a .pdf here.

Raymond James' gold research joins a bevy of other publications that we've posted on the topic of everyone's favorite precious metal. Resources include: global macro hedge fund Woodbine Capital's research on gold, Passport Capital's rationale for owning physical gold, as well as our in-depth look at John Paulson's new gold fund.

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