Strategist Jeff Saut On the Philosophy of Market Tops ~ market folly

Monday, September 17, 2012

Strategist Jeff Saut On the Philosophy of Market Tops

Last week we highlighted commentary from market strategist Jeff Saut on performance anxiety that sets in when managers are underperforming their benchmarks.  This commentary was timely given that the market has rallied while many hedge funds have had low net exposure.

This time around, Saut logically shifts his focus to identifying market tops.  He quotes Justin Mamis on the topic:

"In the end, as the curtain comes down on the bull market you realize that the one rule about tops is not that they provide this or that signal, but that they come before anyone is ready."

Saut also points to further quotation from Mamis that tops are often found when investors are feeling "a comfortableness, a confidence, a conviction that whatever was happening - would continue."

Embedded below is Jeff Saut's commentary on market tops and his thoughts on the current market.   He's cautious (but not bearish) about entering new positions and ultimately thinks that the eventual dip will be bought and fuel another rally into year-end:

You can download a .pdf here.

Additionally, you can scroll through all of Jeff Saut's past commentary at this link.

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