Starting a position in Millipore (MIL) ~ market folly

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Starting a position in Millipore (MIL)

I had written back in my 13f hedge fund analysis of Blue Ridge Capital here that I thought it was interesting that they started a new position in MIL last quarter and brought it up all the way to the #4 fund holding. I was intrigued, so I started my research on the company. And, what do you know, we might have found a winner. Jeffrey McLarty had actually written about MIL here in his breakdown of the water etf PHO. And, although he didn't necessarily like MIL as a play on water, he said he was intrigued by the company itself and decided to revisit the name later.

I really wanted in this name, but it has had a big run over the past few months. So, now coming up on close to a 50% retracement of that move, its time to dip my toe in the water with 1/4th of my total position in MIL that i'll be assembling. I'm flagging this as a buying opportunity mainly because the chart sets up wonderfully here and as I said, its retraced some of its move. (Click the chart to enlarge it). But, besides that, if you look at the blue circles I have drawn on the chart you will see some commonalities. First, at the very top in the RSI. The RSI is in a current uptrend, making higher lows and higher highs, obviously bullish. Additionally, each drop of size in the RSI has signaled a buying opportunity. Secondly, looking at the second set of circles on the stock chart itself, we see that MIL has dipped to support and buying support is always a wise move. The first dip was obviously a double bottom, as signaled by the neon green line I've drawn in there around $65. This double bottom is also significant as it signals the place at which I would really like to load up on shares. And, it gives us a clean stop if we put it below that double bottom. Thirdly, moving down to the blue circles within the stochastics. You will see that each time the stochastics have crossed below 20 into oversold territory, it represents a buying opportunity. Combine all the above with the fact that MIL has completed almost a 50% retracement of its last major run, and you've got the combination for a great entry point.

So, with that said, I'm beginning my position in MIL with 1/4th of my position size here maybe slightly prematurely at $69.34. I'll be back with another post later as to why MIL makes a great investment in the first place. But, just wanted to get this on people's screens as I know some were interested in this name due to the fact that Blue Ridge Capital added it as a new holding, and added it with conviction. When Griffin brings a holding all the way up to the fund's 4th largest holding all in 1 quarter, you know he's up to something.