ValueAct Reveals Activist LKQ Stake, Sells Some Arcosa

Jeff Ubben's activist investment firm ValueAct Capital has filed a couple of 13D's with the SEC recently.

ValueAct Reveals Activist LKQ Stake

First, per a 13D regarding shares of LKQ Corp (LKQ), ValueAct now owns 5.2% of LKQ with over 16.03 million shares as of September 3rd.  This is a brand new position for the firm.

The filing indicates they were out buying shares throughout August and into early September with weighted average purchase prices coming between $24.91 and $27.49. 

The 13D also includes this note regarding their stake: "The Reporting Persons have had and anticipate having further discussions with officers and directors of the Issuer in connection with the Reporting Persons' investment in the Issuer. The topics of these conversations have covered or will cover a range of issues, including those relating to the business of the Issuer, management, board composition (which include whether it makes sense for a ValueAct Capital employee to be on the Issuer's board of directors), investor communications, operations, capital allocation, dividend policy, financial condition, mergers and acquisitions strategy, overall business strategy, executive compensation, and corporate governance."

Per Google Finance, LKQ "distributes replacement parts, components, and systems used in the repair and maintenance of vehicles. It operates in three segments: North America, Europe, and Specialty. The company distributes bumper covers, automotive body panels, and lights, as well as automotive glass products, such as windshields; salvage products, including mechanical and collision parts comprising engines; transmissions; door assemblies; sheet metal products, such as trunk lids, fenders, and hoods; lights and bumper assemblies; scrap metal and other materials to metals recyclers; and brake pads, discs and sensors, clutches, steering and suspension products, filters, and oil and automotive fluids, as well as electrical products, including spark plugs and batteries."


ValueAct Sells Some Arcosa Shares

Second, in a separately amended 13D, ValueAct has disclosed it has sold some Arcosa (ACA).  Per the 13D, the fund sold shares on September 9th through 13th at weighted average prices of around $34.50.

After the sales, ValueAct still owns 5% of the company with over 2.41 million shares.

Per Yahoo Finance, Arcosa "manufactures and sells infrastructure-related products and services for the construction, energy, and transportation markets. It operates through three segments: Construction Products Group, Energy Equipment Group, and Transportation Products Group. The Construction Products Group segment offers lightweight and natural construction aggregates, and trench shields and shoring products that are used in construction landscape, including commercial, industrial, road and bridge, and underground construction. It serves concrete producers; commercial, residential, industrial, and highway contractors; manufacturers of masonry products; state and local governments; and equipment rental dealers. The Energy Equipment Group segment provides structural wind towers for wind turbine producers; steel utility structures for electricity transmission and distribution; and pressurized and non-pressurized storage and distribution containers that store and transport various products, such as propane, anhydrous ammonia, and natural gas liquids. The Transportation Products Group segment offers hopper barges, tank barges, fiberglass covers, hatches, castings, and winches for commercial marine transportation companies and industrial shippers; axles, circular forgings, and coupling devices for freight, tank, locomotive, and passenger rail transportation equipment, as well as for other industrial uses; and cast components for use in the industrial and mining sectors. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas."

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 1/15/14

Investment checklists catch fire [Abnormal Returns]

99% of long-term investing is doing nothing, the other 1% changes your life [Fool]

Research report on LKQ Corp [Prescience Point]

Lessons from short selling [Bronte Capital]

10 predictions for 2014 [FirstAdopter]

5 common investing mistakes you should avoid [Old School Value]

How to become a better investor [Oddball Stocks]

When does a bubble spell trouble? [WSJ]

Fiat's lone poker player needs to find another deal [FT]

After Beam deal, few big liquor mergers left [Dealbook]

Is Google about to make a push into online travel? [Marketwatch]

Time to admit Apple knows exactly what it's doing with its iPhone business [BusinessInsider]

RIA top industry blogs [RIAbiz]

An old profile: the best investor you've never heard of [CNN Money]

Profile of Uber's Travis Kalanick [BusinessInsider]

Market Strategist Jeff Saut: Best Stock Ideas For Next 3-5 Years

Given that markets have been ripping higher, we thought it a prudent time to check in with market strategist Jeff Saut.  His latest investment outlook is entitled "For All the Sad Words of Tongue and Pen" where he looks at how market rallies can last longer than one would think.

He highlights how at around the 18th day of a typical 17-25 day buying stampede, certain investors will start to question whether or not they've missed "the bottom."  This then leads to a new round of buying from people who don't want to miss the big move, and thus the rally extends.

So when might this rally cease?  Saut mentions rallies can typically last up to 30 sessions while today is session 18.  He points out some of the cautious signals he is seeing:

"The S&P 500 (SPX/1502.96) remains overbought with 92.6% of its stocks above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs), as  well the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is still overbought in the short-term.  However, the stock markets can remain overbought for longer than most think in a bull move.  Further, the Volatility Index (VIX/12.89) is not confirming the renewed stock strength and  some of the hitherto leading stocks are not acting well."


Raymond James' Best Stock Ideas For 3-5 Years

Saut recalls Ray Dalio's recent interview where the legendary manager said that "the shift of that massive amount of cash is what will be a game changer."  If it moves into stocks (from pension funds and other large institutions), he wants to be prepared.

As such, Saut has highlighted his analysts' best stock ideas for a 3-5 year holding period with the following criteria:

- Recurring revenue stream
- High barriers to entry
- Not as dependent on economy/financial markets
- Can grow EBITDA at 5-10% annually
- Competitive edge in its sector
- Strong management

His analysts recommended the following stocks: Altera (ALTR), Conceptus (CPTS), Denbury Resources (DNR), NIC Corp (EGOB), Equinix (EQIX), EV Energy Partners (EVEP), IDEXX Labs (IDXX), Iridium Communications (IRDM), LKQ (LKQ), National Oilwell Varco (NOV), Verisk Analytics (VRSK), and Wabtec (WAB).

Embedded below is Saut's weekly commentary:




For more from this strategist, we've highlighted how Saut has been short-term conflicted and long-term bullish and how he's focused on housing as the key driver.