Strategist Jeff Saut on Efficient Markets

Market strategist Jeff Saut's latest commentary focuses on sideways markets and how you can still make money in them. He pulls a quote from Vitaliy Katsenelson, author of The Little Book of Sideways Markets (and e-book version here), who notes that, "one of the core reasons why markets are and will remain inefficient: because human beings are efficient."

In this regard, Vitaliy uses Cisco Systems (CSCO) as an example. The stock has fallen 80% from its highs and now investors who originally bought in 1999 have made no money. The company has guided below Wall Street expectations in recent quarters. Saut adds that, "to be sure, at downside and upside inflection points, stocks are anything but efficient."

Some hedge funds have dabbled in this name and you can see the value thesis rationale in a free sample of our newsletter. And as noted in the just-released new issue of Hedge Fund Wisdom, famed mutual fund manager Bruce Berkowitz started a position in CSCO last quarter.

While the stock market often churns sideways for years digesting large secular bull market moves, Saut points out that the trick to outperform during these periods is to "be more proactive (or tactical) in your investment approach, be sector and stock specific, and cut your losses quickly."

Embedded below is Saut's recent commentary:



You can download a .pdf copy here.

Jeff Saut Sees Tactical Bull Market, Still Cautious Near-Term

Raymond James' Chief Investment Strategist, Jeff Saut, is out with his weekly market commentary. As we pointed out last time around, he was cautious but a buyer on dips. His thoughts remain unchanged in this regard. Hedge funds also agree as they've reduced equity exposure.

However, this time around he revealed some interesting thoughts about where he thinks we are in the overall stock market cycle. He points out that according to Dow Theory, this is a bull market. But when asked if it would be tactical or secular, he replies that, "Personally I think it is tactical within the context of the broad trading range we have been experiencing since the turn of the century."

And although he makes this distinction, he can't help but pay attention to the potential warning signs flashing at him. He notices numerous similarities between the current market and the action before the April 2010 market top. As such, he is cautious in the short-term. However, he does not see another 17% decline like last year's drop in May.

Overall, Saut is still a buyer on dips (if they ever come). He is bullish on technology and specifically likes CA (CA), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), and NII Holdings (NIHD). Additionally in the bank sector, he suggested ideas of Iberiabank (IBKC), Peoples United Financial (PBCT), and Huntington Bancshares (HBAN).

Embedded below is Jeff Saut's latest market commentary:



You can download a .pdf copy here.

For more recent research from this shop, head to the analysts' best stock picks for 2011.

Jeff Saut: Buying on Weakness

Jeff Saut, Chief Investment Strategist over at Raymond James, is out with his latest commentary entitled 'Don't Worry, Be Happy.' In it, he opines that while money does not equate to happiness, the stock market was certainly happy last month as it increased 7.0% after being down 8.2% in May and losing an additional 5.4% in June. Last time around, Saut argued that it might be time to re-balance portfolios and laid out a theoretical businessman's risk portfolio.

Saut pats himself on the back for 'calling the rally' that he expected due to oversold conditions at the beginning of July. Recently, a Dow Theory Buy Signal was registered according to the market strategist as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed above their previous June highs. However, this signal comes after an already powerful rally has taken place and numerous other theorists do not think a signal has been registered in the true sense of the definition. This would require a close above 11,204 on the Dow Jones and above 4,806 on the transports.

That said, Saut is now a buyer on weakness. He issues a caveat with that statement saying he will use fairly close stop loss triggers to manage the risk. As we've detailed recently, Saut has outlined his risk management principles and has also argued that risk adjusted stock selection is the key to success.

So, what stocks to buy on weakness? The Chief Investment Strategist feels that the following stocks are solid choices:

Value Picks:
Microsoft (MSFT)
Intel (INTC)
Wal-Mart (WMT)
Allstate (ALL)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Growth Plays:
McAfee (MFE)
Iridium (IRDM)
NII Holdings (NIHD)
Nuance (NUAN)
Parexel (PRXL)

As you can see, Saut favors many high quality blue chip names on the value side. This is exactly what we saw this morning as Jeremy Grantham favors high quality US stocks. Additionally, we've detailed hedge fund T2 Partners' bullish presentation on 3 large cap stocks.

Overall, Jeff Saut thinks that the 200-day moving average (overhead resistance) will be taken out. And as of this second, that's exactly what's happening. We'll have to see if the market can hold and close above that level. He ends by quoting Lowry's who writes,

"In summary, as the major price indexes have moved sideways since the May 25th low, market conditions have showed clear signs of strengthening, not weakening. While overbought readings on short-term indicators suggest the potential for a near-term pullback, any decline should act only as a temporary setback in the rally from the July 2nd low and is unlikely to represent the next leg of a more prolonged move lower."

Embedded below is Jeff Saut's latest investment strategy from Raymond James:



You can download a .pdf copy here.

Here's the rest of our 'market-strategist-Monday' pieces if you missed any of them:

- Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks on the greek tragedy
- PIMCO's Bill Gross: latest investment outlook
- GMO's Jeremy Grantham favors high quality US stocks

Jeff Saut: Portfolio Rebalancing May Be In Order

Market strategist Jeff Saut believes that asset allocation is the key to alpha generation. But to be more specific, he is not dogmatic about the approach and instead prefers dynamic asset allocation. This is an extension of normal asset allocation in that it incorporates the use of various indicators to complement the normal analysis, intuition, and common sense that applies to creating portfolios. He uses this diversification as a tool to mitigate risk. Those of you increasingly concerned about the presence of risk in your portfolios can heed Jeff Saut's risk management principles.

The reason he brings this whole notion up in his weekly investment strategy is because he feels we are approaching a point in the markets where rebalancing portfolios might be in order. His proprietary intermediate-term indicator, stochastic indicators, and the 12-month moving average are all warranting caution. However, the Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist has been bullish on equities in the near-term in part due to their massively oversold condition. He recently proclaimed that risk adjusted stock selection is the key to portfolio success.

In particular, Saut has been fond of technology stocks as their weekly forward earnings per share are at a record high. He has mentioned Microsoft (MSFT) numerous times as an attractive play. This morning we posted up a bullish presentation on MSFT from hedge fund T2 Partners as well. Saut's other technology stock favorites include Iridium (IRDM), NII Holdings (NIHD), Nuance (NUAN) and PAREXEL (PRXL).

In the end, Saut feels the signal to rebalance is coming soon. Ultimately, the type of portfolio to rebalance stands to be determined. The type of portfolio to rebalance to is largely reliant upon whether or not the market can re-capture its 200-day moving average. The market is currently trading right around that level, testing resistance to the upside. Saut feels that many technical indicators will soon resolve themselves and will determine just how defensive (or not) a portfolio should be. In a separate post, we'll outline Saut's "Businessman's risk" portfolio and how it is allocated. In the mean time, embedded below is Saut's full market commentary for this week examining the potential upcoming rebalance period:



You can download a .pdf copy here.

More analysis from the market strategist can be found at Jeff Saut's risk management principles as well as his previous commentary outlining keys to portfolio success in 2010.