Whitney Tilson's SodaStream Presentation: Value Investing Congress Las Vegas

We've posted up notes from the Value Investing Congress in Las Vegas and next up in the series is Whitney Tilson of Kase Capital who pitched long SodaStream (SODA).


Whitney Tilson's Value Investing Congress Presentation

•    SodaStream (SODA): Home beverage carbonation system – makes money off the machine, the bottle, the carbonation and the syrup. The carbonation and syrup lead to repeat sales. Razor/blades model.
•    70% cheaper once you purchase the machine. 25 cents per carbonated liter. 30% cheaper if you add flavor versus other products. Convenience – you don’t need to carry around bottles, etc.
•    A lot of choices flavor wise. Environmentally friendly.
•    Target market? People who like to drink sparkling water. Households with multiple people – flavoring or the soda drinker in the household. 
•    It is NOT competing against coke and pepsi – they do sell coca-cola variants, but in Whitney’s experience, not the best taste – however the other flavors taste good and are popular.
•    SODA looks like Decker’s to Whitney.
•    Beaten down stock – has fallen tremendously, with a high short interest.
•    Mistaken view that it is a fad – United States don’t realize the business has a strong share overseas, only 1-2% share in the USA. 393 people surveyed for SodaStream – people love their SodaStream machines and use / recommend them frequently.
•    Are the problems fixable?  USA sales growth is decelerating – believes it is temporary, due to the worst holiday selling season and 16% growth isn’t bad! In the second half of FY13, brought on with Wal-Mart. Plus, marketing and ad spend didn’t deliver. Europe as a matter of point grew 38% YoY. Secondly, SODA did not deliver on gross margins. Missed margins on machine sales as they wanted to get machines out to consumers – drive unit growth for the consumable business (syrups/carbonation). Whitney believes this was worth the cost. 
•    Enormous Global Market: a lot of white space for future growth and market penetration.
•    Position of Market Leadership : SODA owns the market, no real competitors. Large active user base.
•    Attractive economic characteristics : 50% gross margins, not capital intensive, decent profit margins. Healthy balance sheet. Further, attractive growth opportunities, YoY growth story for the past years. Flavor is the highest margined business (margins are not broken out). In Switzerland a mature market, 80% of sales or more are CONSUMABLES – 25%+ operating margins. USA generates 5% operating margins give or take, due to machines as a mix of sales.
•    Moat? Co2 cartridges require expertise and reverse logistics as many countries consider these items dangerous, large installed base, industry know how and the brand name.
•    Samsung one example of a company that is partnering with SODA stream to install in their refrigerators.
•    Valuation – doesn’t look cheap, trading at 22x trailing earnings guidance is for 3% growth, EBITDA growth ~15%. Looks exp. On a PE basis, fairly valued on EBITDA basis. Why is this cheap? Brings up the GoodCo / BadCo example. You should look at the businesses separately.
•    Western European business – 31% growth last year, 33% previous – their cash cow mature market. Thinks they earn 2.34 a share out of Western Europe (versus 1.82 total business).  15x multiple on that business ~$35 or roughly the entire share price today. You get the USA biz for free. •    Another way is to look at the refill business – 7mm installed base, trading around ~8x refill business.
•    Doesn’t think the Coke/Keurig Cold competition – no product out yet. Chemical carbonation isn’t on par with the later, plus costs are expected to be higher.
•    If you want a cup of coffee you have to make a pot – a waste, so Keurig makes sense. If you want just a coke, you can purchase a can or go to a vending machine, what is the value add from Keurig Coke? Doesn’t make sense to Whitney.
•    What could go wrong- poor earnings next quarter and inventory levels. Q1 earnings will be bad, perhaps it will offer a better entry point. 


Be sure to check out the rest of the Value Investing Congress presentations.

Scout Capital Starts Sodastream (SODA) & Fresh Market (TFM) Positions

James Crichton and Adam Weiss' hedge fund Scout Capital just filed two 13G's with the SEC regarding Sodastream International (SODA) and The Fresh Market (TFM). Both are brand new positions for the hedge fund.

Scout Capital manages over $4 billion. Weiss and Crichton will be presenting investment ideas this October at the Value Investing Congress in New York. Market Folly readers can receive a 42% discount to the event here.

Sodastream International (SODA)

Due to portfolio activity on July 11th, Scout has revealed a 5.07% ownership stake in SODA with 1,010,000 shares. Since this position didn't appear on their first quarter disclosure, they've acquired their entire position sometime over the last three and a half months (with buying activity as recent as last week).

Per Google Finance, Sodastream "is engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing home beverage carbonation systems and related products. The Company develops manufactures and sells soda makers and exchangeable carbon-dioxide (CO2) cylinders, as well as consumables, consisting of CO2 refills, reusable carbonation bottles and flavors to add to the carbonated water."

The Fresh Market Inc (TFM)

The hedge fund also disclosed a 5.21% ownership stake in Fresh Market (TFM) with 2,500,000 shares (a brand new stake as well). To see what else they've been up to, head to some of Scout's recent portfolio activity.

Per Google Finance, Fresh Market is "a specialty retailer focused on perishable product categories, which include meat, seafood, produce, deli, bakery, floral, sushi and prepared foods. Its non-perishable product categories consist of traditional grocery and dairy products, as well as specialty foods, including bulk, coffee and candy, and beer and wine."

To hear these hedge fund managers' latest stock picks, be sure to head to the Value Investing Congress and take advantage of our discount before it expires next week.