Francisco Garcia Parames Long Teekay: London Value Investor Conference

We're posting up notes from the 2017 London Value Investor Conference.  Next up is Francisco Garcia Parames of Cobas Asset Management.  He pitched long Teekay Corp (TK) and long Teekay LNG Partners (TGP).


Francisco Garcia Parames London Value Investor Conference Presentation

Whilst at Bestinver 1993-2014, Parames’s returned 15.7% per annum in his Spanish equity fund, equivalent to 2,279% compounded compared to 410% for the Spanish index. In 1997 he also began to manage an international portfolio, which returned an average 10.6% per annum versus 2.9% for the MSCI World Index. He left Bestinver due to a difference of opinion over whether to take on more capital. He felt that at $10bn euros the fund had become too big.

Temperament is more important than IQ for success in investment management. He qualified this by saying that you manage risk by knowing what you are doing. Studying companies in depth is important – if you don’t it will lead to mistakes. You can reduce risk by buying assets that have gone down a lot in price.

His approach to valuation is to buy good businesses trading on less than 10x earnings. He looks for companies with high returns on capital. He said that one of the things he wished he had learnt earlier in his career was to invest in better quality companies. Joel Greenblatt’s Little Book That Beats the Market helped him to develop this side of his game and to avoid value traps.

A distinctive feature of Parames’s style is that he actively changes the size of his positions in companies. The names in his portfolio do not change that often but under the surface there is a high turnover of money. All things being equal, if one stock in his portfolio goes up by 20% and another goes down by 20% he moves money from the winner to the loser.

In terms of sell discipline, he only sells when there is something better to buy. “We almost never go to cash.” The current market is on the expensive side but it is not in a bubble.


Long Teekay Corporation (NYSE: TK) and Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP)  

Teekay is his first shipping investment in 27 years of investing. It is the main investment in the new Corbas fund – about 9% of the portfolio. Teekay is a family owned company. He trusts family owed companies to keep watch on management and over his career about 80% of the investments have been in family owned businesses. Shipping is cyclical, leveraged, tends to have low returns and can be a lousy business.

Teekay Corporation currently receives $40m in payments per annum from its subsidiaries but before the collapse in the oil and gas price it received much more. The largest subsidiary, Teekay LNG Partners, is expected to return to paying the parent company $100m a year as it did in 2014 and 2015. Given these cash flows Parames’s thinks that Teekay Corporation is worth $19.5 per share (it is trading around $6.40).

Teekay LNG is the key to the valuation. It is trading at 5-6x FCF. It is leveraged 50-60% of assets - lower than most other shipping companies that are in the 70-90% range. Compared to most other shipping businesses LNG companies work on very long-term contracts with companies like Shell and Total. Free cash flows will increase every year for the next 10 years and are predictable. He expects an IRR of 18% per annum.

Parames noted that it was the first time in his career that he had seen a stock’s price fall 75% with no change in the earnings estimates.


Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from the London Value Investor Conference.

Eric Mindich's Eton Park Capital Discloses New Position in Teekay (TK)

Eric Mindich's hedge fund firm Eton Park Capital just filed a 13G with the SEC revealing a new equity stake in Teekay (TK).

Per the filing, they now own a 6.51% ownership stake in the company with 475,000 shares and options to purchase 4,000,000 shares.

The company spun off various operations over the last couple of years. It holds stakes in Teekay LNG Partners (TGP), Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO), and Teekay Tankers (TNK).

Wells Fargo recently upgraded its price target on the company to $38-41 (shares currently trade around $35). They feel that the company is undervalued and it will likely raise its dividend in 2013 and could possible boost its buyback later in 2012.

Per Google Finance, Teekay is "a provider of international crude oil and gas marine transportation services. It also offers offshore oil production, storage and offloading services, primarily under long-term, fixed-rate contracts. With a fleet of over 150 vessels, offices in 16 countries, Teekay provides marine services to the oil and gas companies, helping them link their upstream energy production to their downstream processing operations."