Luxor Capital Reduces BJ's Restaurants Stake, Adds To Manitowoc

Hedge fund firm Luxor Capital recently filed two disclosures with the SEC regarding BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) and Manitowoc (MTW).


Luxor Reduces BJ's Restaurants Position

First, Luxor has revealed that they now own 9.8% of BJ's Restaurant (BJRI) with over 2.5 million shares.

This is a reduction in their position size as they owned 3.5 million shares at the end of Q1.  The filing details that Luxor recently sold a block of 1 million BJRI shares to UBS at $50.80.

Per Google Finance, BJ's Restaurants is "owns and operates restaurants. The Company operates under the BJ’s Restaurant & Brewery, BJ’s Restaurant & Brewhouse, BJ’s Pizza & Grill and BJ’s Grill names. The Company owns and operates 158 restaurants. Its menu consists of deep-dish pizza, craft beers and other beers, as well as a range of appetizers, entrees, pastas, sandwiches, specialty salads and desserts, including its Pizookie dessert. Its menu also includes starter salads, handcrafted burgers, sandwiches and tacos, desserts, lunch specials, housemade soups and salads, and gluten-free menu, among others. Its Snacks and Small Bites menu category comprises small plate appetizers and salads and a lower calorie and better for you menu category called Enlightened Entrees."


Luxor Boosts Manitowoc Stake

Second,  Luxor has also disclosed they now own 5% of Manitowoc (MTW) with over 6.82 million shares.  Some of their position is common stock underlying call options.

This is a sizable increase from their previous position size.  Luxor used to own 1.788 million shares of MTW as of the end of the first quarter.  The new filing was due to activity on July 31st.

We also just posted that Pennant Capital increased its Manitowoc stake as well.

Per Google Finance, Manitowoc is "a multi-industry capital goods manufacturer. The Company operates in two markets: Cranes and Related Products (Crane) and Foodservice Equipment (Foodservice). Crane is a provider of engineered lifting equipment for the global construction industry, including lattice-boom cranes, tower cranes, mobile telescopic cranes and boom trucks. Foodservice is a manufacturer of commercial foodservice equipment serving the ice, beverage, refrigeration, food-preparation, holding and cooking needs of restaurants, convenience stores, hotels, healthcare and institutional applications. Its Crane products are marketed under the Manitowoc, Grove, Potain, National Crane, Shuttlelift and Manitowoc Crane Care brand names. Its Foodservice products, services and solutions are marketed under Cleveland, Convotherm, Dean, Delfield, Fabristeel, Frymaster, Garland, Inducs, Koolaire, Kolpak, Kysor Panel Systems and U.S. Range, Lincoln, Manitowoc Ice and Merrychef, among others." 

Luxor Capital Files 13D on BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)

Hedge fund Luxor Capital has filed a 13D on shares of BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) indicating they own around 9.7% of the company with over 2.7 million shares.  This is a new position for the hedge fund as they did not report a stake at the end of 2013.

The filing was required due to activity on February 28th and the fine print of the filing indicates they're nominating five individuals to the board of directors.

A recent transaction breakdown shows that Luxor was out buying BJRI shares throughout January between $28.xx and $31.xx.

Per Google Finance, BJ's Restaurants "owns and operates restaurants.  The company's restaurants operate under the BJ's Restaurant & Brewery BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse, BJ's Pizza & Grill, or BJ's Grill names. The Company's menu features its BJ's deep-dish pizza, its hand-tossed style pizza, its craft beers and other beers, as well as a selection of appetizers, entrees, pastas, sandwiches, specialty salads and desserts, including its Pizookie dessert. The Company's BJ's Restaurant & Brewery restaurants feature on-premise brewing facilities where BJ's craft beers are produced for some of its restaurants."

Technical Analysis: Charts With Solid Risk/Reward

Just wanted to breeze through some charts really quick, since it's been a while. Time for some good old technical analysis. Ok, right to it. BJ's Restaurants. Simply put, this place is a clusterf*ck. They're facing rising input costs and slower dining traffic. As I've written about here and here, the consumer environment just isn't that hot right now. In fact, its accelerating to the downside. So, this place will only get squeezed harder. Their solution? Raise prices faster. Oh, great, that will really get struggling consumers in the door. BJRI is hurting so much for any type of positive news that it was up 9% yesterday on an analyst upgrade. Yes, one upgrade. Well, the good news is that this fluke of a 9% move gives us a low risk opportunity here. Check out the chart below.

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As you can see, BJRI used to bounce right off of support at $13.5 way back in April and May. Then, the stock ripped lower. It has already tried to test $13.5 once in August and it failed. Well, it's right back up at those levels again. $13.5 was past support and thus is now future resistance. The analyst upgrade today moved the stock up to a high of $13.62. So, a low risk play here would be to short BJRI at these levels and then place your stop just above the resistance (and the 200 day moving average) at around $14 or so. You can be the judge as to how tight of a stop you want to use here. One thing to note if you want to play this from the short-side: be cautious because the recent move upwards has had some volume behind it. Because, as you've seen yesterday, the slightest bit of positive news can send these consumer related names flying. Conversely, if you do get stopped out, you could just flip your trade to the long side. Because, if BJRI breaks out above its 200 day moving average, as well as above the strong resistance at $13.50, it has the potential to go much higher. Another option would be to just stand on the sidelines to see which way it is going to move and then pile on. The point here is that BJRI has very clear risk/reward in both directions. Watch it and play it however you're comfortable.

Next up, I want to point out the large channel Goldman Sachs (GS) has been trading in for a long while. I meant to post this up a few weeks ago, but I've been so busy that I forgot. Here's the original chart I meant to post up showing the clear support for GS at around $155 and then the resistance at around $200 (you could also make a point for resistance around $190).

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Now, take a look at GS currently.

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As expected, it bounced right off $155 and traded higher up to $170. The simple play here has been buy GS around $155 and stop out around $145 or so (depending on how tight you want your stop). Then, you turn around and sell GS as it rallies higher into various levels of resistance around $170, $190 or wherever you want to lock in some profits. As you can see, this name has been trading sideways for a while. So, while there might not be a big play here right this moment, keep your eye on it. Eventually, some very favorable risk/reward setups will take place just as they have in the past in this name.

Next, I want to turn to a little series that I like to call: There's no such thing as a triple bottom. First up, we have Companhia de Saneamento (SBS). Now, I actually like this name as a longer term play on Brazil. But, for the time being, you absolutely have to respect the technicals, which point to lower prices. Obviously this presents us with a risk/reward setup. You can either try to catch a falling knife (which I don't really recommend). Or, you can wait until it slices through that past support line and short it down along with the rest of the momentum players. It's up to you. The point is that around $37 or so has served as past support for SBS as it double bottomed back in April of 07 and February of this year. You could get a reflex bounce off that support level. But, since we all know there is no such thing as a triple bottom, it looks like it's heading lower.

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The second chart in the "no such thing as a triple bottom" series is Freeport McMoran (FCX). Again, this company is actually a great name to own for the longer term, as valuations have just gotten ridiculously cheap. But, in the mean time, you've got to respect the technicals. Some hedge funds have been forced to sell their shares, while others are merely front-running each other. It's a mess out there and it doesn't look like it will end anytime soon. On the chart, you see that FCX double-bottomed in September of last year and February of this year. Yet again, we're down along those levels of $65. Triple bottoms don't exist so I expect this name to trade even lower to the secondary support level I've drawn in around $60. This is simply another risk/reward setup for you to keep your eye on. These charts are painting an ominous picture right now.

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So, what does everyone think about these setups? Are there some you like, some you don't? Would love to see what other people think about these setups. Because, after all, technical analysis is in the eye of the beholder. And, what I see could be completely different than what you see.

Deteriorating Consumer Environment: Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) Evidence

This is just continuing evidence of a lackluster consumer environment. Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) same store receipts were down in August, setting up what I predict will be a downward accelerating consumer environment. Both Citi and Merrill Lynch downgraded ANF on Friday, citing deteriorating sales and increased markdowns. In fact, Citi went as far as to say that they think ANF could trade at its lowest multiple in 5 years. Just something to keep an eye on as you try to balance your portfolios.

Specialty retail is getting hit hard (and will continue to get hit hard) as effects from the housing market, consumer credit crunch, and inflation take a toll on consumer's pocketbooks. Abercrombie is known for its upscale niche within the teen segment, often selling more expensive items than the likes of competitors Aeropostale (ARO), who seems to be doing alright in this environment. So, look for consumers to "trade down" in this environment.

In any given sector, I like to take a balanced approach and often times am market neutral. For instance in retail, being long the likes of Walmart (WMT) or various other discounters who sell essentials (food, gas, toiletries, medicine) is very appealing to me. Then, you take the other side by going short discretionary retailers, such as ANF. Long cheap and/or necessary items; Short expensive and/or discretionary items. The same logic can be applied to food by going long the likes of McDonald's (MCD) for the "cheap" factor (although they might see some slight headwinds due to their strong international presence and a rising US dollar). Then, shorting casual dining restaurants such as BJ Restaurants (BJRI) or Darden Restaurants (DRI), who are feeling the pinch of rising input costs and slower dining traffic.

The main point to take away here is that we all know the consumer is strapped for cash. However, I think too many people are counting on a recovery. With vast evidence of the housing market accelerating to the downside, I just don't see how that is possible. Add in the consumer credit crunch and the inflationary pressures consumers are seeing on everything they buy, and you've got a recipe for a very thrifty consumer.