Kenneth Rogoff: This Time is Different (Ira Sohn Presentation)

We're posting up notes from the Ira Sohn Conference.  Harvard Professor (and chess grandmaster) Kenneth Rogoff gave a presentation entitled, "This Time is Different" which is also the title of his book (linked above).

Record levels of public and private debt. He's put together a massive data set studying financial crises.

Past data on average severe crises, how much they fall and for how long: Housing prices -36%, 5 years. Equities 56%, 3.4 years, unemployment 7%, 4.8 years, real GDP per capita -9.3%, 1.7 years. US had a very typical financial crisis. SPX did actually fall exactly 56%. 

Going back to 1800, what percent of the world is in default? He showed a chart that right now there are VERY few in default, historically low actually. Greece has actually been in some state of default 50% of the years since independence. The way out for the Eurozone is political unity, if not within 15 years, the Euro will not survive.  Obesity: adolescents are 17% of the obese population.


P.S. - Don't miss other presentations from David Einhorn, John Paulson, Bill Ackman & more: notes from Ira Sohn Conference 2012.

Harvard Endowment Cuts Holdings

If you missed it, Harvard has reduced its holdings and I thought it was worth highlighting, since so many people are interested in what the Ivy endowments are up to,

"Harvard University's endowment, the largest in higher education, cut by two-thirds its direct holdings of publicly traded stocks and funds during the market plunge in last year's fourth quarter.

As of Dec. 31, Harvard Management Co., which oversees the endowment, held about 70 stocks and publicly traded funds that were valued at $571 million, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Three months before, the endowment held about 200 stocks and other vehicles valued at just under $2.9 billion."

Link: WSJ