We're posting up notes from the Sohn Canada Investment Conference 2015 (Capitalize For Kids.) Next up is Jacob Doft from Highline Capital. He pitched going long the cruise lines, including Royal, Carnival, and Norwegian.
Jacob Doft's Capitalize For Kids Presentation
- Long Cruise Lines including: Royal (RCL), Carnival (CCL), Norwegian (NCLH)
- For 4 reasons:
o Low End consumer – sentiment rising (Retailer CEO’s change tune on customers a.k.a. more optimism such as Walmart), oil prices falling and unemployment falling. Cruise ships offer travel for $200/day versus fly and hotel trips around $450/day.
o China – government through the Ministry of transportation is endorsing cruise ship travel. Chinese can visit Japan, Korea and Taiwan via cruise ships. Port infrastructure is built and can accommodate 7 million people. Relaxed visa restrictions will drive future demand. Carnival and Royal have 9 ships in China. 2015 new ship capacity of 4,150 people.
o Rest of world improvement – 4 ship builders build ~5 ships/year. 2010-2015, ½ average goes to China per year. 2015-2020, 3/5 ships will go to China. Cause demand outside of China for cruises and price appreciation.
o Cuba: cruise ships already go around Cuba. Cruise ships are a good way for Americans to go to Cuba.
- Projects approximately 50% upside from current prices.
Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from the Capitalize For Kids Conference.
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Jacob Doft's Sohn Canada Presentation: Long Cruise Lines
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Jacob Doft's Presentation on Intercontinental Exchange: Capitalize For Kids Sohn Canada
We're posting up notes from the Capitalize For Kids Sohn Canada conference that just took place. Next up is Jacob Doft of Highline Capital who pitched long Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
Jacob Doft's Sohn Canada Presentation
Runs a $2.5B firm with an equity L/S mandate. Started the firm when he was 25 years old and focuses on companies undergoing fundamental/industry change. The firm has 30 employees and was founded in 1995.
Pitched LONG Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), a trading exchange where 40% of revs come from non-transaction recurring revenue, selling services like data and access. With regards to trading, 15% of revenues are from Interest rates futures. All exchanges are leveraged to volumes and this one is no different. Potential catalysts include LIBOR opportunity, OTC clearing opportunity, cost cuts, selective pricing. Hugh upside if volume gets back to normal level – we’ll likely need to see risk-free rate increase. Thinks Jeff Sprecher is a great CEO and ready to lead the business through the upcoming predicted change. Valuation regarding different scenarios; flat volume — 30% upside, up volume - 50% ; using 2016 ICE consensus 15.2x EPS; Recovery assumption case 11.2x.
Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from Capitalize For Kids Sohn Canada here.
