Notes From Value Investing Congress Las Vegas 2013: Day 2

Yesterday we posted up some quick notes from day 1 of the 2013 Value Investing Congress in Las Vegas and today we'll highlight key takeaways from day 2 below:


Whitney Tilson, Kase Capital: AIG, Hertz (HTZ)

He talked about how American International Group (AIG) is still a position he likes as it's still cheap and the company has been streamlined to something much easier to understand and there's been a lot of advancement since the financial crisis and even since last year.  It's around 14% of his portfolio and was his largest position as of last month.  Tilson also likes his long of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A / BRK.B) and recently adjusted his intrinsic value figure to just north of $193,000.  Additionally, he mentioned he's started a new position in Hertz (HTZ) and you can read the pitch on Hertz in this newsletter that convinced him.


Guy Gottfried, Rational Investment Group: WPX Energy (WPX)

His pitch was on WPX Energy, a spin-off from Williams Companies last year.  He says it trades at 8x free cashflow and .66x book value.  Gottfried feels it's a very cheap stock for a play on natural gas that doesn't require gas prices to head higher.


Mark Boyar, Boyar Value Group: Weight Watchers (WTW), Dole Foods (DOLE), Western Union (WU)

He thinks we might be in the midst of multiple expansion.  Boyar likes Weight Watchers (WTW) as a play on the weight management industry and notes it's down 50% over the past 12 months.  He also pitched Dole Foods (DOLE) as the company reduced its debt load by selling the packaged foods business.  His third and final pick was Western Union (WU).


Vitaliy Katsenelson, Investment Management Associates: Whistler Blackcomb (WB.TO)

He said that profit growth is slowing down and that the market is actually getting expensive on a P/E basis.  Katsenelson argued that there's no secular bull market, at least not yet.  In the mean time, he likes stocks with solid dividends and says that the vast majority of returns in sideways markets are derived from dividends.  He's the author of The Little Book of Sideways Markets, by the way.  His pick was a high dividend payer (over 7%) in Whistler Blackcomb, the owner of the popular ski resort.  He likes their lower costs due to no property development etc.


Zeke Ashton, Centaur Capital Partners: Fidelity National (FNF), First American (FAF)

He emphasized the importance of learning from mistakes.  While you will encounter your own mistakes as an investor, it's also easy to learn from others' mistakes too.  Ashton argued that emotional mistakes are much more prevalent than analytical ones and so obviously behavioral finance is an important part of investing.  As far as current opportunities in the market go, he's having a hard time finding good ones as so many shares have been bid up.  He's not a big fan of homebuilders but if you want a play on housing, he said to look at the title insurers as a proxy with lower risk.  His picks were Fidelity National (FNF) and First American (FAF).


Joe Altman & Chris Kyriopoulos, COMPOUND Capital: TARP Warrants, Nathan's (NATH)

They launched their fund at a hell of a time: during the financial crisis when Lehman Brothers failed.  These two mentioned that they like TARP warrants, which we'd note has been a hedge fund favorite (especially AIG and BAC warrants, though Compound prefers AIG and COF ones).  They note these are liquid plays that are often underfollowed.  However, their pitch today was Nathan's (NATH), the popular hot dog proprietor.


David Hurwitz, SC Fundamental: Long KISCO, Short Salesforce.com (CRM)

He pitched one long: KISCO in Korea (001940.KRX) and one short: Salesforce.com (CRM).  He says KISCO is much cheaper than CRM.


Chris Mittleman, Mittleman Brothers:  Revlon (REV)

He pitched this as a turnaround story, praising management for a good effort.  Ron Perelman owns a ton of the company and that's partially the reason it's so cheap.  Mittleman likes that it's essentially a recession resistant business.  A solid portion of their revenues come from Walmart.  He also mentioned Carmike Cinemas (CKEC).


Ori Eyal, Emerging Value Capital: Hilan Tech

Eyal talked about the opportunities to invest in Israel, somewhere he specializes in (launching the Emerging Value Israel Fund).  He says the country is stable and pro-business and has a growing economy.  He pitched Hilan Tech, which he dubbed the 'ADP of Israel.'  He says Israeli stocks on the whole are cheap as they've largely traded sideways the past few years.


Harris Kupperman, Mongolia Growth Group: Real Estate

He touched on how there's too many investors out there all doing the exact same thing (i.e. herding).  One place that there certainly aren't many investors involved is Mongolia.  He says the country's GDP will explode 10x over the next decade or so, creating a big opportunity and he recommended real estate there.


For more from this event, head to notes from day 1 of the Value Investing Congress.

Presentations from ValueX Vail Conference: LINTA, BAC, AMZN, CNW, PSUN, SPLS & More

We wanted to post up the presentations from the ValueX Vail Conference that just took place last week.  Vitaliy Katsenelson (follow him on Twitter here) hosted the event and it featured numerous equity pitches, including Jim Chanos' presentation on value traps that we posted yesterday.

The other presentations are posted below and include:

- Patrick Brennan, CFA on the bull case for Liberty Interactive (LINTA)
- Kai Shih of Shih Investments on Bank of America (BAC)
- Josh Tarasoff of Greenlea Lane Capital on Amazon.com (AMZN)
- Dan Amoss of Strategic Short Report: Short Con-Way (CNW)
- Shane Calhoun of Belcaro Capital on Pacific Sunwear (PSUN)
- Adrian Mak on Staples (SPLS)
- Joe Cornell of Spin-Off Research: The ABC's of Spin-Offs
- JJ Abodeely of Sitka Pacific Capital on value investing from top-down
- Footnoted's Michelle Leder on diving into SEC filings
- Greg Merrill of Strategic Asset Management on exporting natural gas
- Alex Rubalcava on managing investor workflow
- Hendrik Leber of ACATIS: A European perspective
- Jon Markman on Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Email readers please click here to come view the presentations embedded below:


Patrick Brennan: Liberty Interactive (LINTA) 




Kai Shih on Bank of America (BAC)




Josh Tarasoff on Amazon.com (AMZN)




Dan Amoss: Short Con-Way (CNW)




Shane Calhoun on Pacific Sunwear (PSUN)




Adrian Mak on Staples (SPLS)




Joe Cornell: The ABC's of Spin-Offs




JJ Abodeely on Value Investing From Top-Down



Michelle Leder on Diving into SEC Filings




Greg Merrill on Exporting Natural Gas




Alex Rubalcava on Managing Investor Workflow




Hendrik Leber: A European Perspective




Jon Markman on Reminiscences of a Stock Operator





Thanks again to Vitaliy for making all of the presentations available.

If you missed it, be sure to also check out Jim Chanos' presentation on CNX, PBR, HPQ, CSTR & SAN from the event as well.

Japan: Past the Point of No Return By Vitaliy Katsenelson

Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates is back with another compelling presentation on a foreign country. Last time around, he examined how China was the mother of all black swans. Katsenelson provides his thoughts at ContrarianEdge.com and this time around he's focused on Japan and how it is past the point of no return.

Embedded below is the entire slide-deck on Japan:



You can directly download a .pdf of the presentation here.

His presentation focuses on one fact that's been known for a while: the Japanese savings rate is declining as their population ages. But, the main thing to take away from that is that the Japanese will become net sellers of bonds and this has consequences. In order to fight off the yen's depreciation against the dollar, Japan will have to sell some of their dollar reserves. That's a much bigger deal than it sounds when you consider that Japan is the largest holder of US treasuries. While the US isn't in great shape right now, we're in better shape than Japan comparatively speaking. Conclusively, Katsenelson argues that the US economy should work things out naturally rather than relying on continuous stimulus spending so we don't end up like Japan.

Now that you've taken a look at Japan, make sure to check out Vitaliy's other presentation, China: The Mother of All Black Swans. Additionally, we've also detailed global macro hedge fund Woodbine Capital's focus on the dispersion between the industrialized and emerging worlds, a piece well worth the read as well.

China: The Mother Of All Black Swans By Vitaliy Katsenelson

Today we wanted to highlight an intriguing presentation from Vitaliy Katsenelson at ContrarianEdge.com. Katsenelson is the Portfolio Manager at Investment Management Associates, Inc. and he outlines the possibility that China is the mother of all black swans. His presentation focuses on the notion of late stage growth obesity and other factors. There has been a sweep of pessimism surrounding China's prospects as of late and we recently covered hedge fund manager and short seller Jim Chanos' presentation on China overheating as well. Additionally, we've also detailed global macro hedge fund Woodbine Capital's focus on the dispersion between the industrialized and emerging worlds.

Here is Katsenelson's presentation 'China - The Mother Of All Black Swans' and you can download a .pdf copy in the embedded document viewer by clicking the 'download' button:




Certainly interesting thoughts and he is not alone in his view. Katsenelson also recently appeared on Yahoo! TechTicker with Aaron Task and Henry Blodget where he detailed his bullish stance on shares of Pfizer (PFE) and Vodafone (VOD). David Einhorn shares this stance and outlined the case for VOD in hedge fund Greenlight Capital's investor letter.