Fundamentals / My Quick Value Scan

One thing that's bothered is me is I've come across blogs that post up "Oh I ran my scan yesterday..." but they fail to tell us what the scan actually is, as if its some huge protected secret. So, thought I would go over one of the main scans I run to get a quick glance at possibly undervalued equities.

This is a quick fundamental scan I run on yahoo finance, just to keep up to date weekly on what equities are nearing tempting levels. This is a value based scan, but I am NOT a deep value investor. So, the various banks or retailers that come up in this scan I'll take a quick look at, but I rarely invest in or trade those names. You have to weed through the garbage, because more often than not, there's some garbage that shows up. I'll call this scan "QuickValue". This scan has provided me with past beauties such as Ensco drilling (ESV) and more. Let's get to it, here's what you want to run in your scan:

PE < 15 (<25 if you want to loosen up the restrictions)
Return on Equity > 20%
PEG ratio < 1 (< 0.5 for extremely undervalued companies)
Price to book < 2.5 (< 1.2 if you wish to be like Benjamin Graham)
CurrentRatio > 1.5
Price to sales < 5

A few additional categories you can add:
Strong dividend growth
Low debt to equity
EPS growth of 3.3% of more year over year for a 5 year period
Strong Insider Ownership
Strong Institutional/Hedge Fund Presence

Now, as you can see, you can tweak a whole bunch of different things within that scan (omit a few categories, add a few categories, etc). I run the loose scan first and then fiddle around a little bit. Please note that I do NOT find all my companies through this scan. Companies like Apple (AAPL) and some of the fertilizer plays Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS) would never show up on these scans, and yet I'm invested in them. This is just one of the starting places I look for ideas in terms of value. Remember, this is a quick, loose VALUE scan.

Typically, the main things I look for in my companies not necessarily found in this scan are operating margins between 15-20%, a return on equity greater than 15%, strong (accelerating) quarterly revenue growth on a year over year basis, strong (accelerating) quarterly earnings growth on a year over year basis, a PEG ratio of under 1, a price to sales of under 5, insider/institutional/hedge fund ownership.

This is just an idea of fundamental things to look at when you're starting your research on any stock. This is literally just the tip of the iceberg in terms of fundamentals. But, I've found it to be a good starting place to generate some ideas and find some value for the value side of the portfolio. Fiddle around with some of the constraints and see what you come up with. Anyone have any other favorite scans they use pretty often?

Thermo Fisher (TMO): Critical Juncture

As you can see from the chart above, Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) has been forming a beauty of a triangle over the past few months. Triangles of this size usually imply consolidation before a big breakout/breakdown. And, this one certainly looks like it will breakout to the upside, given the number of times it has tested overhead resistance at around $59. But, at the same time, it very well could breakdown below its triangle given the shoddy market conditions we've been seeing. I'm in this name and have been for a while. This is not a trade for me, its an investment. TMO and MIL make up my "life sciences" basket in my portfolio. And, an added bonus is that numerous very smart hedge funds have been accumulating positions in TMO over the past few quarters. (Most notably, Blue Ridge Capital, as detailed here).

So, even though I'm personally not trading this name but rather investing in it, I'm definitely keeping my eye on the overhead $59 resistance and the trendline that is established on the bottom side. If we break below this trendline and make a lower low, I will most likely exit this name and look for a better entry point to get long this as an investment again. This is why technicals are so important and can be a great weapon to add to your investment arsenal. Even though I think TMO is a great name to own, this chart is implying a big move soon, most likely to the upside. I believe this is the case because the formation has been building for months and accumulation/distribution is showing slow and steady accumulation over the months. So, keep an eye on it, and get in it for a trade or an investment, whichever you prefer. Momentum traders would like to play this name on a move upwards of $59 on some solid volume. Whereas others might like to play it right now on todays bounce off the 50 day moving average.

All I know is that TMO is making higher lows and has consolidated beautifully over the months. Look for a move with conviction in either direction. Just let the break of the triangle dictate whether to get long or short. I know I'll be monitoring my position intently due to the nature of this market and the nature of this big formation.

Starting a position in Millipore (MIL)

I had written back in my 13f hedge fund analysis of Blue Ridge Capital here that I thought it was interesting that they started a new position in MIL last quarter and brought it up all the way to the #4 fund holding. I was intrigued, so I started my research on the company. And, what do you know, we might have found a winner. Jeffrey McLarty had actually written about MIL here in his breakdown of the water etf PHO. And, although he didn't necessarily like MIL as a play on water, he said he was intrigued by the company itself and decided to revisit the name later.

I really wanted in this name, but it has had a big run over the past few months. So, now coming up on close to a 50% retracement of that move, its time to dip my toe in the water with 1/4th of my total position in MIL that i'll be assembling. I'm flagging this as a buying opportunity mainly because the chart sets up wonderfully here and as I said, its retraced some of its move. (Click the chart to enlarge it). But, besides that, if you look at the blue circles I have drawn on the chart you will see some commonalities. First, at the very top in the RSI. The RSI is in a current uptrend, making higher lows and higher highs, obviously bullish. Additionally, each drop of size in the RSI has signaled a buying opportunity. Secondly, looking at the second set of circles on the stock chart itself, we see that MIL has dipped to support and buying support is always a wise move. The first dip was obviously a double bottom, as signaled by the neon green line I've drawn in there around $65. This double bottom is also significant as it signals the place at which I would really like to load up on shares. And, it gives us a clean stop if we put it below that double bottom. Thirdly, moving down to the blue circles within the stochastics. You will see that each time the stochastics have crossed below 20 into oversold territory, it represents a buying opportunity. Combine all the above with the fact that MIL has completed almost a 50% retracement of its last major run, and you've got the combination for a great entry point.

So, with that said, I'm beginning my position in MIL with 1/4th of my position size here maybe slightly prematurely at $69.34. I'll be back with another post later as to why MIL makes a great investment in the first place. But, just wanted to get this on people's screens as I know some were interested in this name due to the fact that Blue Ridge Capital added it as a new holding, and added it with conviction. When Griffin brings a holding all the way up to the fund's 4th largest holding all in 1 quarter, you know he's up to something.

Oil... $120 is the make or break point. I expect a bounce

Wanted to touch on oil here since its such a big part of the markets these days. Currently, its pulling back and expectedly so. It was due for a pullback, but now we are approaching a very important make or break point: $120. As you can see in the chart above, every dip in oil has been a buying opportunity. And, interestingly enough, each dip has dipped all the way to the most recent peak and then bounced off that peak. Because, after all, that peak used to be past resistance. But, once we blasted through it, it became future support. For some reason I can't get my graphics to show up on the chart but do me a favor and just mentally draw a line horizontally across the $120 mark. There you will see where the pullback is headed. And, if look at the peak in the end of April, where does it sit? Yep, right at $120. Here's the deal, I'm short-term bearish on oil simply because it needs to pullback even more. All you hear about now is consumers complaining about $4 gasoline. So, with demand in the US (one of the biggest consumers of crude) decreasing, oil needs to pullback in price. Pure supply and demand economics. But, here's the catch. You can't expect that to happen because markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. So, I am *fully* expecting a bounce at $120 if we even get that low. Traders, speculators, you name it, they will all be rushing into this name on a beautiful technical bounce off of past resistance/now future support, as well as the moving averages. I've drawn the exponential moving average in red and the simple moving average in blue, since I know various people use various averages. But, this shows that both are right around $120. It's an imperative level and just wanted to make sure everyone had seen it. Not to mention, stochastics are oversold at current levels, implying a bounce. I don't usually look at stochastics on commodities in general, I typically use them just for stocks. But, its worth mentioning as it also backs up the argument for a bounce at $120.

So, buy oil on the dip to $120 for a trade at the very least. Place your stops below that and call it good. If it breaks below your stop then it's time to get short because then oil is heading lower and will have made a technical breakdown. You can play oil with ticker USO which is the US Oil Trust (think GLD but for Oil). Or, you could play it through the deep sea drillers like RIG, DO, ATW, etc. I'd recommend USO simply because the chart is identical to $WTIC (crude), so you've got clear entry/exit points. Whereas on RIG etc you've got to monitor the price of oil yourself and then set conditional buy/sell orders on those stocks once oil hits a certain price, triggering your order to buy/sell RIG or whatever oil company you choose to play it with.

Also, just wanted to throw in some commentary from oil greats Richard Rainwater and T. Boone Pickens. If you're unfamiliar with Rainwater, he's down in Texas and was famous for striking it big on heavy bets on Disney as well as heavy bets on the appreciation of the price of oil. He and Boone share the Peak Oil Theory belief. At any rate, Rainwater says he's short-term bearish on oil, and he makes the right case in this Time article here.

Boone Pickens also spent some time talking to Time magazine about oil (and his odd position in Yahoo YHOO). You can check out that video here.

Hedge Fund Tracking: Atticus Capital's 13F (Timothy Barakett)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here)

Atticus Capital is a $13 billion hedge fund ran by Timothy Barakett. In 2005, Atticus' funds were up a combined 45%. And, they finished well over 30% for 2006. Barakett founded the firm at age 26 in 1995 and focuses on taking large, concentrated positions in companies. One of Atticus' most famous investments was Phelps Dodge, a miner which was bought out by Freeport McMoran (FCX). At one point, Atticus owned more than 9% of Phelps. And, they continue to hold their position in what is now the combined FCX. Barakett received his BA in Economics from Harvard and his MBA from Harvard as well. Its very evident that Barakett employs macro based investment theses. Once he has decided on what the trend is, he will find the best company within that trend and he will place a big bet. And, when needed, he will step in and take an activist role, ensuring the company is performing to his liking. And, much more often than not, he wins.

I love covering Atticus simply because their investment style is the most similar to mine that I have found thus far, in terms of hedge funds. (Well, minus the activist part since I'm a measly retail investor haha.) I will be detailing the changes to Atticus' portfolio as referenced in their latest 13F filing, which shows the portfolio changes they made last quarter. I won't be going into as much detail on Atticus as I have on the ex-Tiger Management funds (Lone Pine, Blue Ridge, Maverick) simply because Atticus has fewer, more concentrated positions. So, I'll cover the major moves and give the jist of what's going on in their portfolio. Just remember that this is by no means all their positions; they have some more, but they are literally tiny positions. With Atticus, you want to be placing your money with their big bets. These are just the bigger/notable moves that they made.

New Positions:
AngloGold Ashanti (AU) 918,000 shares
Newmont Mining (NEM) 1,022,400 shares
Visa (V) 7,799,500 ipo shares

Added to:
Genomic Health (GHDX) increased by
Goldfields (GFI) increased by

Reduced Positions:
CSX Corp (CSX): sold out of all their CSX shares, and sold half of their CSX calls.
Freeport McMoran (FCX) Shares: reduced from 16,393,273 shares to 11,523,563 shares
Freeport McMoran (FCX) Calls: reduced Calls position from 10,014,400 shares through calls to 2,214,900 shares through calls
Mastercard (MA) Shares: reduced from from 4,093,290 shares to 3,621,683 shares
Mastercard (MA) Calls: reduced Calls position from 1,594,600 shares through calls to 194,600 shares through calls
Norfolk Southern (NSC) Shares: reduced from 5,634,016 shares to 1,921,900 shares
Norfolk Southern (NSC) Calls: reduced Calls position from 203,600 shares though calls to 0 shares through calls
NYSE (NYX) Shares: reduced from 15,261,911 shares to 13,955,540 shares
NYSE (NYX) Calls: reduced Calls position from 7,251,400 shares though calls to 0 shares through calls
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): reduced from 9,428,982 shares to 7,414,900 shares

Removed Positions:
Inverness Medical (IMA)
Monsanto (MON)
Moody's (MCO)
Praxair (PX)
Research in Motion (RIMM)
Verisign (VRSN)

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Breakdown: Alright, so after checking out the major moves from Atticus' portfolio, its very clear to see that Barakett is putting big bets on gold through the miners themselves. It appears as if they were taking profits from their long held Phelps Dodge (now FCX) and applying that cash to pick up and add to other miners. The weird thing here is that FCX, although their name has "Gold" in it, is mainly a copper producer. These other miners they added are mainly gold miners. So, since we cannot see commodity holdings through the 13f's, I would bet that Barakett owns some gold. Because otherwise, his choice to play this thesis through the miners baffles me, because he is exposed to the company specific risk. He has protected himself somewhat by diversifying amongst the miners, spreading his risk around. But still, a puzzling move to me. While I agree that the US faces heavier inflation fears than construed by many, his bet on the miners is taking some time for me to digest. I do not see the Gold etf GLD in his portfolio, so I would guess that he owns some of the actual commodity. That is, unless, he sees something completely different in the miners themselves. Clearly though, he was buying the dip in gold. And, although he takes some profits in FCX, it still continues to be the fund's #1 holding. Note though, that his position size in these miners pales in comparison to his various other top fund holdings, ie: the gold miners are not massive holdings in his portfolio, save for FCX, which is a copper play anyways, so there's a difference.

They got their hands on a massive allocation of Visa (V) ipo shares, and so that has undoubtedly paid off. I'm sure they will sell a little bit to take some profits, but hold the vast majority, as they have done with Mastercard (MA). It is very apparent that Barakett is a big believer in MA's global presence and expansion. He sold a little MA, but again, not substantial enough to be more than profit taking. After all, MA is up huge. V fits right in there with that same thesis so it makes sense for him to add in mass on the ipo where he got the shares dirt cheap (damn you!). His position in MA is worth twice as much as his position in V (in $ value). Look for him to possibly even add even more V on any dips.

What I haven't necessarily detailed here is Atticus' massive position in the rails. Although they sold out of most of their CSX, they have absolutely HUGE positions in BNI and UNP (in fact, they are the fund's #4 and #1 holdings respectively). So, they have slowly but surely traded out of CSX over the past few quarters in favor of BNI and UNP. No surprise here, as almost every smart guy on wall street is in big on the rails.

Ahh NYSE (NYX), good ole NYX. This is a pretty massive position for Atticus, still in the top 10 of holdings even though they've been selling some off. As a recent shareholder myself, I know the pain they must be feeling. The thesis behind investing in NYX makes perfect sense and I'm right with Barakett on it. But, it seems as if this is going to take much longer to play out than he has imagined. He's been reducing his position size a little bit to reduce his risk, considering he must have been taking quite a big hit from this position. We'll see if he has dwindled it down even further next quarter. If that's the case, it might be time to re-evaluate NYX as there might be fundamental problems with this name.

Barakett continues to play oil through Conoco Philips (COP) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY). Although he sold off some OXY, he still has a pretty large position. I would guess he was just taking profits in that name, as it is up pretty significantly. His position in COP is larger anyhow.

Other odds and ends worth pointing out is Atticus' tiny position in Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE). Sound familiar? Yep, this is Boone Pickens' company. And, Boone Pickens' BP Capital has a pretty hefty position in his own company too. Just thought that was interesting. Also worth noting is that Atticus has a pretty sizable stake in Crown Castle (CCI). I was puzzled as to why Maverick Capital had sold out of their CCI last quarter, but its reassuring to see Atticus still holding a large position in it. Having done more research on it over the past week, it really makes sense to me as an investment and I really am dumbstruck as to why Maverick sold it off. Also, just like practically every other well known hedge fund, Atticus holds decent positions in all 3 of the major Brazilian banks: Unibanco (UBB), Banco Bradesco (BBD) and Banco Itau (BBD). Typically, it seems that most hedgers have bigger bets on ITU and BBD. But, Atticus is the inverse in that their position in UBB is the size of their position in BBD and ITU combined. These are three of the staples for any Brazilian index fund. And, with good reason. These names are very compelling due to their positioning in a blossoming Brazilian financial scene. I haven't been in these names ever since I sold out to take profits, but am definitely at looking to get back in. I'm invested in a Brazilian index fund for my retirement account, but I need more Brazil exposure in my macro investment account.

The main thing that strikes me overall about Atticus' portfolio is the conviction with which Barakett invests in the trends he really believes in. His portfolio has either a tiny stake in the stock, or a massive stake in the stock, hardly much in between. There are only a handful of names in his portfolio that fall in the "in between" category. And, this is after the fact that I've taken into account that the sectors he's bet big on have appreciated a lot in value. Even after subtracting what I gauge to be "fair profit" in those names, his original positions in those names are still among the largest in his portfolio. So, the argument that they are his largest holdings due to their large appreciation is a non-factor. He's got massive bets on in payment processing, precious metals/mining (FCX), oil, and the rails. I'll be keeping a close eye on which of the "smaller" holdings suddenly become elevated into a large holding. Because when that happens, Barakett has come to his next macro conclusion and will have acted swiftly.

Personal Favorites out of Atticus' Portfolio: MA, V, OXY, FCX, (NYX - even though its a death trap), UBB, ITU, BBD, CCI

Most interesting moves: Using some profits from FCX to load up on various gold/precious metal miners. I've never thought the gold miners themselves to be that great of investments. I only like FCX so much because its not really a gold company, they're much more of a copper and molybdenum story. Selling completely out of RIMM was also interesting... I'm sure he'll be back once those shares come crashing down again. But, he still has a decent sized position in Baidu (BIDU) for 'tech' exposure.

Note, of their positions, I'm long: MA, V, OXY, FCX, NYX, BNI

Names I want to research further: CCI, BBD, ITU, UBB, PAC

Look out in the coming days as I wrap up the hedge fund coverage with a few last 'notorious' funds and whales.

Wow...

So, fresh off my post about owning MA and V as your play on financials, I receive this chart... what timing! Barry Ritholtz over at Big Picture has a nice graph (seen above) of banks that have accessed the fed's discount window. As you can see, this year has been record setting to say the least in terms of banks needing help. So, what's next? Implosion? Just another reminder as to why I want to avoid the financials in general and stick to best of breed in the space if you really feel the need to be in there. Some of these companies' balance sheets are giant mysteries, and Lehman (LEH) scares the crap out of me right now with all their level 3 assets or whatever. Click on the graph to enlarge it and get an up close and personal view of how "well-run" our banks are at the moment.

Why the only "financials" you need to own are Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V)

I love it when the media (especially those yaks on cnbc) always ask "Is now the time to buy the financials?!?!" Personally, I steer clear from most of them, except for a revered few. And, they don't even really count as true 'financials.' I'm talking about Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V). I want to preface this by saying that by no means do I recommend jumping into these names right now at these levels. They've had massive runs and undoubtedly are due for pullbacks. But, I just want to put it on your radar for when they eventually do pull back. I've been selling into the strength and only have a little bit of each left and am dying for a pullback to load up on these names. I'm starting to feel empty inside because I can't have full positions in these dominant companies haha.

(Side Note: Now, don't get me wrong, there are 2 ACTUAL financials that I like, US Bank (USB) and Goldman Sachs (GS). USB because of the strong 5% dividend and solid dividend growth, as well as a pretty cautious management team. They seem to have weathered the majority of the storm in terms of the credit crisis/housing woes, and the stock mainly trades sideways. So, I just pocket the dividend and write some covered calls on that badboy to create some nice cashflow. Treat this name almost like a CD or a high yield savings account (but higher yielding). GS, on the other hand, is by far the best of breed investment bank and they get dragged through the mud with the other banks due to guilt by association. In the long run, look for them to distance themselves from the pack and truly outperform. Look to really load up on shares around $160 or even $150 if it trades that low. GS and USB are the only "true" financials I touch with a ten foot pole.)

The main thing that prompted me to post about MA and V has been SunTrust's analyst coverage of the names. Normally, I don't pay much attention to analyst estimates because half the time the analysts are wrong. But, I pay attention to these calls solely because time and time again, SunTrust has been ahead of the pack (and rightly so) in terms of realizing the true revenue that MA and V can grow. Notable Calls has been right on the money by flagging this for their readers. SunTrust now has a street high estimate for MA 2008 and 2009 EPS. Last week, SunTrust raised fical 2008, 2009, and 2010 EPS estimates for V. For V, they raise 2008 estimates from $2.04 to $2.11, 2009 estimates from $2.69 to $2.96, and 2010 estimates from $3.55 to $3.82. As you can see, these are pretty substantial boosts. Then they come right back this week and raise MA's estimates even higher. They boosted MA's 2008 estimates from $8.68 to $8.94 and 2009 estimates from $11.08 to $12.17. Once again, a pretty notable increase. SunTrust suggests that MA could see sustainable EPS growth of at least 20%, which is huge. The overall belief is that MA and V are seeing pricing power in their industry niche of payment processing with no credit risk. They have operating leverage (and are continuing to reduce operating costs) and are seeing massive volume growth. Voila - my investment thesis all along. Suntrust has an argument for those who say MA and V are rich in valuation now: They believe that this is due to the fact that analyst estimates are simply too low and flat out unrealistic.

This reminds me of the exact situation that has been occurring in the fertilizer segment of the agriculture trade. Analysts simply have too low of estimates and these companies are actually trading at much cheaper multiples than we think. 6 months later in the fertilizer game and analysts are STILL playing catch-up. Now, I don't think MA and V are seeing the kind of secular growth explosion that MOS or POT are obviously; but, at the same time, I definitely agree that analyst estimates are too low on MA and V and there is a secular trend building. SunTrust is the only analyst I'll follow on this group simply because they are leading the pack of analysts right now and until the others play catch-up, SunTrust is the only bank out there who "gets it." Through my time in the markets, I've found that certain analysts in each sector are just flat out better than others (surprise, surprise), and you've got to find those analysts and only listen to them. Listening to the others is just a truckload of garbage and noise. So, SunTrust is way ahead of the game here and look for others to follow suit once they crunch the numbers and take a look at what is really happening in the world of global payment processing and realize that their estimates are way too low.

The phrase "global payment processing" is all you really need to know about these companies. They are global stories and most of the growth is occurring away from American shores. Despite an economic slowdown/recession in America, MA and V continue to see huge revenue growth due to international consumers' willingness to use plastic rather than cash. The slowdown in spending from American consumers is not even a chink in the armor of these guys. Think of the rest of the globe as Americans 10 years ago. Eventually, everyone gets used to using debit/credit cards and starts carrying less cash. I can't underscore this point enough. The international opportunity for these names is huge. If they can get consumers in other countries to use their cards even HALF as much as American consumers, they will see record numbers.

Plain and simple, MA and V are payment processors who bear ZERO credit risk. If you want some credit risk, you can always go with some American Express (AXP), if that's your cup of tea. I can see the appeal there, and so does Blue Ridge Capital (seeing as they really loaded up on shares of AXP last quarter). But, I prefer MA and V due to the sheer volume of cards they have in consumers' hands worldwide. I want to stress again that I usually do not pay a ton of attention to individual analyst estimates. But, when you see a firm come out with street-high estimates, constantly leading the pack of analysts, it gets your attention. I think these guys are right on the money and that's why I wanted to point it out. They've been talking my investment thesis in these processors all along. Oh, and did I mention that Lone Pine Capital has a pretty hefty position in MA and V, as detailed here.

Disclosure - long MA and V at the time of writing, but have been selling into strength lately. Looking for a pullback of any size to really begin to add. Keep these names on your radar.

Maverick Capital's 13F (Lee Ainslie)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here )

Lee Ainslie started Maverick Capital back in 1993 with $38 million. Nowadays, the fund is worth $10 billion, so you can already see the track record he's established. Ainslie, like many of the other fund managers I've profiled, has a background rooted in learning from legendary great Julian Robertson at Tiger Management. So, due to the fact that these proteges learned from the best and have had great success running their own funds, I continually try to find a reason NOT to follow these funds. And, needless to say I'm never successful. Time to learn from the greats! Some of my contacts over at Maverick have explained to me that their strategy is straight up stock picking, both long and short. They made it clear though, that they do not employ pairs trades. Although, some of their long/short setups might be in the same sector. They try to hedge their positions like a true hedge fund by picking out the shining stars in certain sectors, as well as identifying the pieces of garbage. Now, of course, this presents us with a problem in that the 13F filings only show long positions (unless they're holding puts on a name, we can see those). So, a good amount of Maverick's portfolio (the entire short side) is unbeknownst to us, because they have reported zero put positions. But, let's look on the bright side in that we can see all their long positions. Maverick uses a value approach (obviously learned from Julian) and one of their most popular metrics is finding companies and comparing their enterprise value to sustainable free cash flow. So, now that we've got a little background on Maverick, let's see what they were up to. Rumor has it that they had a poor start to the year, and they were definitely out switching things up in mass in their portfolio.

New Positions: (in no particular order)
American Capital Strategies (ACAS) 581,590 shares
Bankrate (RATE) 100,100 shares
BonTon Stores (BONT) 57,000 shares
BPW Acquisitions (BPW) 2,000,000 shares
Citrix Systems (CTXS) 4,007,280 shares
Crocs (CROX) 515,389 shares
Discovery Holdings (DISCA) 6,063,297 shares
Dish Network (DISH) 5,977,630 shares
Infinera (INFN) 2,524,117 shares
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 4,745,330 shares
Liberty Media Corp (LMDIA) 5,726,736 shares
Loews (LTR) 2,297,358 shares
Nordstrom (JWN) 4,386,874 shares
Sears (SHLD) 848,724 shares
Starbucks (SBUX) 12,512,559 shares
Wyeth (WYE) 4,282,850 shares

Added to:
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) increased by 12% (3,956,220 more shares)
Amylin (AMLN) increased by 28% (544,550 more shares)
Apple (AAPL) increased by 3.6% (80,965 more shares)
Autozone (AZO) increased by 99.8% (1,005,200 more shares)
Avon Products (AVP) increased by 82% (2,863,320 more shares)
Bank NY Mellon (BK) increased by 24% (1,174,155 more shares)
Baxter (BAX) increased by 38.5% (930,840 more shares)
Burlington Northern (BNI) increased by 151% (1,007,490 more shares)
Cardinal Health (CAH) increased by 12% (350,230 more shares)
China Nepstar Chain Drugstores (NPD) increased by 68.5% (960,605 more shares)
Cognizant (CTSH) increased by 3.6% (181,168 more shares)
Covidien (COV) increased by 57% (1,483,210 more shares)
Cypress Bioscience (CYPB) increased by 123% (1,458,064 more shares)
Direct TV (DTV) increased by 25% (1,438,140 more shares)
Fidelity National Info (FIS) increased by 41% (1,286,091 more shares)
Google (GOOG) increased by 49% (98,722 more shares)
Hanes Brands (HBI) increased by 37% (896,563 more shares)
Home Inns & Hotel Mgmt (HMIN) increased by 28% (633,753 more shares)
Leap Wireless (LEAP) increased by 19.5% (217,011 more shares)
Lumber Liquidators (LL) increased by 7% (147,720 more shares)
Marsh & McLennan (MMC) increased by 13.6% (888,850 more shares)
MetroPCS (PCS) increased by 32% (1,032,857 more shares)
Mylan (MYL) increased by 52% (3,463,006 more shares)
Nucor (NUE) increased by 19% (307,337 more shares)
Research in Motion (RIMM) increased by 179% (2,174,226 more shares)
Resmed (RMD) increased by 11% (186,168 more shares)
Salesforce (CRM) increased by 63% (818,010 more shares)
Sandisk (SNDK) increased by 7% (399,180 more shares)
Textron (TXT) increased by 31% (988,240 more shares)
UnderArmour (UA) increased by 81% (1,622,662 more shares)
United Health (UNH) increased by 31% (832,673 more shares)
VMWare (VMW) increased by 5% (60,000 more shares)
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) increased by 36% (623,610 more shares)


Reduced Positions:
America Movil (AMX) reduced by 34.5% (1,907,040 less shares)
Berkshire Hathaway A (BRK.A) reduced by 43.5% (635 less shares)
Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B) reduced by 22.8% (3,687 less shares)
Corcept (CORT) reduced by 8.5% (128,480 less shares)
Cumulus Media (CMLS) reduced by 21% (526,311 less shares)
Gamestop (GME) reduced by 14.6% (676,378 less shares)
Genentech (DNA) reduced by 9% (150,290 less shares)
Gmarket (GMKT) reduced by 56% (308,037 less shares)
Harmonic (HLIT) reduced by 10% (574,361 less shares)
Lexmark (LXK) reduced by 49% (2,161,513 less shares)
Marvell Tech (MRVL) reduced by 3% (551,916 less shares)
Monsanto (MON) reduced by 11% (190,570 less shares)
Office Max (OMX) reduced by 22% (1,464,249 less shares)
Potash (POT) reduced by 11% (123,790 less shares)
Qualcomm (QCOM) reduced by 37% (3,851,237 less shares)
Raytheon (RTN) reduced by 19% (861,290 less shares)
Suntrust (STI) reduced by 54% (1,194,028 less shares)
ThermoFisher Scientific (TMO) reduced by 33% (1,782,100 less shares)


Removed Positions:
Positions Maverick sold out of completely
Altria (MO)
Atheros Comm (ATHR)
Biogen Idec (BIIB)
Burger King (BKC)
Crown Castle (CCI)
CVS Caremark (CVS)
Digital River (DRIV)
Echostar (SATS)
Five Star Quality Care (FVE)
Guess (GES)
Healthnet (HNT)
Macys (M)
Men's Warehouse (MW)
Merck (MRK)
Omnicare (OCR)
Wellpoint (WLP)
Wyndham (WYN)
Yahoo (YHOO)


Positions with no change:
Bluefly (BFLY)
Cnet (CNET)
First Advantage Corp (FADV)
First Marblehead (FMD)
Gilead (GILD)
Move Inc (MOVE)
Newstar Financial (NEWS)
Palm (PALM)
Trubion Pharma (TRBN)
Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT)
Vivus (VVUS)
Western Union (WU)


Top 10 Holdings by % of Portfolio:
1. RIMM (Top holding)
2. AAPL
3. QCOM
4. AVP
5. BK
6. GILD
7. GME
8. RTN
9. AMX
10. TXT



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Breakdown: Alright, so right out of the gate the first thing I noticed was Maverick's heavy tech weighting, much like fellow Tiger Cub funds Lone Pine and Blue Ridge. Maverick's top 3 holdings are all tech in RIMM AAPL and QCOM. And, Maverick even reduced their QCOM position by almost 40% and its still the #3 holding. I'm sure given the big run tech has had lately (especially AAPL), that Maverick will show some profit taking next quarter in the next round of 13Fs. They just clearly loaded up on tech on the big dips, and they've profited quite handsomely from that play it seems. Ainslie added to Avon Products (AVP) by 82% and brought it up to the #4 fund holding, which is a strong move. Ainslie also added heavily to Autozone, increasing it by almost 100%, and bringing it to a notable 11th largest fund holding. Also, he added Bank New York Mellon by 24% and it sits at the fund's 5th largest holding. Maverick clearly wants to play the financial space through BK and then also JPM, which they also added as a brand new holding this go round. And, they added in mass too, with a whopping 4.7 million shares. Take a closer look at those two if you want financials exposure. Ainslie also started a pretty decent sized position in Citrix, who specialize in IT and the such. I would say they were trying to play the VMWare trade through the backdoor, but they already have VMW in the fund as well. Another new addition to the portfolio this go round was Wyeth, which they added a strong 4.2 million shares of. Also, it seems like Ainslie added SBUX as well, buying on the dip when Schulz came back. We'll see if they still hold those shares in the next quarter.

In terms of further adding to positions they already owned, Maverick really loaded up on BNI, a whopping 151%. And, keep in mind, that stock has already made a monster move, so they weren't exactly getting those shares on the cheap. They clearly believe the move in the rails has more juice. They also added in mass to Cypres Bioscience by 123%, showing conviction in that buy as well. One play that they continue to quietly amass is satellite plays. DTV they increased by 25% and they've been building a position over time. They also started a brand new position in Dish Network, so they've got all their bases covered. I'll definitely be checking into that theme further as Maverick seems to firmly believe in it, despite a recession. They also added GOOG to their tech basket by 41%, but its still *not* a top 10 holding in the fund. Ainslie clearly prefers hardware in tech. They also continue to add to Mylan quarter after quarter (increased 52% this quarter), so that's one I'm keeping my eye on as well. One move I'm not so sure of is them adding to UA by 81%. I think this stock has real issues as they've lost their "mojo" after first storming onto the scene. We'll see how that plays out and see if they add even more shares in the quarters to come. Half the point in tracking these 13f's is to see where these funds are accumulating shares on a quarterly basis, so we can play catch-up with them and load up on positions ourselves that these funds strongly believe in. Some stocks they buy and sell and they are in and out. Others though, you can see them slowly adding each quarter, building core positions. Those are the ones you want to look for. Also, keep an eye out for sector trends (such as satellite tv in Maverick's case). They are clearly buying up all satellite players and must believe strongly in that space.

Turning to the reduced positions, I noticed that they've reduced their stakes in both BRK.A and BRK.B. Clearly they aren't seeing as much value in Buffett anymore. Or, maybe they were just freeing up cash. As, after all, if the rumors of Maverick's poor start to the year were true, then they needed to free up some cash to re-tool their portfolio. I mentioned earlier that they reduced their QCOM position by 37%, and yet it is still the 3rd largest fund holding. That amazed me; they've really bet big on this name. I attribute this sell to some profit taking and some freeing up cash to re-work the portfolio. After all, its still a massive holding and they've sold off more than a 3rd of the position. Raytheon (RTN) was also reduced by 19% and yet it is the fund's 8th largest holding. So, not a whole lot to worry about there either.

Maverick sold completely out of some of their bigger and longer term holdings in that of CVS Caremark and Burger King. They also sold out of Echostar (SATS) and it seems they prefer DTV and DISH in the satellite space. Actually, it looks like they swapped completely out of SATS and into DISH. Another semi-big holding they sold out of was Guess. Then some smaller holdings of fellow retailers Macys and Men's Warehouse were sold off as well. It seems that Maverick must have taken a real beating with all of these retailers and that probably played a large part in their rumored weak start to 2008. They've clearly admitted they were wrong on those and sold them off completely in search of better sectors. One removal I was confused about was Crown Castle, as their investment in the wireless tower industry seemed to be a smart one. But, now that they've sold out, its time to revisit that name and make sure nothing is fundamentally wrong with it. Maybe Maverick needed the cash after their bad beginning of the year, maybe they were taking profits in the name, who knows. But, I strongly believe that the wireless tower play was a smart one and I'm going to look into it deeper, as the future is obviously in wireless technology.

Not a whole lot to look at in terms of positions with no change. They kept their GILD position unchanged as the fund's 6th largest holding. They held their CNET as well, and I'm sure they've actually sold it off now that the stock has popped immensely on its takeover news. Like fellow Tiger Cub manager John Griffin at Blue Ridge, Ainslie and Maverick have a position in First Marblehead. Maverick didn't quite add in mass like Blue Ridge did... but then again maybe Blue Ridge was playing catch-up. As I've said earlier, there are usually some commonalities between the portfolios of all the ex-Tiger Management gang. They undoubtedly still keep in touch and share their good ideas and then swarm them in mass. So, identifying the names that all of the funds hold collectively could create quite a killer portfolio. I'll actually be developing a model portfolio later based on the consensus ex-Tiger Management funds (ie: a portfolio of stocks that appear in all 3 funds' portfolios: Maverick, Lone Pine, and Blue Ridge). Now that I've covered the 3 major proteges of Julian Robertson, I can sift through the data to find all the commonalities and create a mock modern day Julian Robertson-esque Tiger Management portfolio to track.

Personal Favorites out of Maverick's portfolio: AAPL QCOM GILD AMX BNI TMO POT AMLN MYL DTV RMD

Most interesting move(s): 1. Bringing Avon Products up to the #4 fund holding 2. Doubling down on Autozone and making it the #11 fund holding 3. Substituting DISH in place of SATS 4. Seemingly shifting out of most of their retail plays (including selling off their entire huge chunk of CVS) 5. Continuing to slowly build positions in RMD, DTV, and MYL

Note/ Of their positions, I'm long: AAPL QCOM GILD AMX TMO POT

Names I want to research further: CCI DTV DISH MYL RMD

Keep an eye out for continued hedge fund 13f tracking when I cover Greenlight Capital (David Einhorn), Atticus Capital (Timothy Barakett), and a few other big funds/whales.

Some Portfolio Updates

*Before I get to the portfolio updates, just wanted to let everyone know that the hedge fund 13f tracking series is by no means finished. I was just on vacation for the long weekend and haven't had time to finish up the research. Sorting through those 13F's and comparing them line by line is quite tedious haha. Look for posts covering Maverick Capital (Lee Ainslie), Greenlight Capital (David Einhorn), Atticus Capital (Timothy Barakett), and more in the coming days. Just need to get this portfolio update out of the way first.*



Long overdue for a Portfolio update. First, let's start with Mosaic (MOS). I've been a big fan of the fertilizers due to their global pricing power (ideal short supply and huge demand conditions). I've been scaling in and out of them ever since August 2007, taking profits and buying the dips along the way, revolving around a core position. I usually play the space through both Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS) because POT is best of breed, and MOS is the up and comer with better valuation. I usually enter investments in fourths so I buy 25% of my overall position in one round, then another 25% and so on. Currently, I've got 1/2 a position in POT right now but I only had 1/4th a position in MOS, that is until yesterday when my limit order at $115 hit and now i've got 1/2 a position in MOS. Now, this was a limit order set from a while ago that I lined up to coincide with the 50 day simple moving average. But, let me go over why entering MOS here would be a good idea, even with its dip below the 50 day ma. First, looking at the chart we see that of course it has touched the 50 day ma and this has been an excellent buying opportunity in the ferts whenever they pullback this far. If you look at the chart you'll see that each touch to the 50day ma has been a buying opportunity. And, notably, each touch has actually broken below the 50 day, only to sharply rebound right back above it and begin its trend higher. So, this is why the fact that it broke the 50 does not bother me: MOS seems to always do that and the buyers always come in. Secondly, look at the Full Stochastics at the very bottom of the chart. You will see that we are now in oversold territory and the stochastics have turned back up, indicating a bullish future. Look at all the other times that the stochastics have entered oversold territory (reading 20 or below). Every single time the stochastics point to oversold, MOS has rebounded for a trade at the very least, if not continuing its run higher. Lastly, looking at the RSI at the top of the chart shows us that everytime MOS sees an RSI reading of 50 or below, buyers have come in. And, yet again, buyers dipped into MOS. So, the chart really tells the story in MOS. Watch the moving averages for support, watch the full stochastics for oversold conditions (20 or below) and watch the rsi for a buying signal (50 or below). As long as MOS hits some of these conditions without massive volume, step in and pick up part of your position. If it shows heavy volume on the decline though, stay away as it probably indicates distribution and further downside.



Next up, just wanted to mention that I added Walmart (WMT) on the pullback to the 50 day moving average as well. I've been VERY patient on this one, waiting for a pullback for a nice entry. Obviously waiting for a pullback to the 50 day moving average is always a smart idea, as this level typically serves as a support level for uptrending stocks. You'll notice on the chart that smaller pullbacks have occurred along the way the past few months, but we finally got a pullback of real size and so I pulled the trigger. Notice also how the stochastics on the very bottom of the chart point to oversold. Look to other times that the stochastics crossed down around the 20 level and you will see they pointed to excellent buying opportunities in this name. This is the primary oversold indicator I use and it has served me well. Not to mention, WMT has been so strong lately that it has rarely dipped below 50 on the RSI. And, every time it has, its been a buying opportunity. We just got one, so that was yet another buy signal screaming at me. So, both the RSI and stochastics were at the lower end of their ranges and started to turn up, signaling bullish future. Combine that with the touch of the 50 day moving average and I'm more than happy to add some WMT.

Its obvious that in a recession/tough times/era of high gas prices, that consumers will hit the discount retailers more frequently. And, WMT is a one stop shop for all their needs (including gas at some Sam's club locations). So, the thesis for this play is really simple. People are living cheaper due to tough times and the only places for them to go are COST or WMT and WMT to me simply has greater exposure and offers you both the pure discount shop in its Walmart stores, as well as the bulk item membership version Sam's Club. So, I chose WMT over COST mainly for this reason, and also because just chart-wise its much healthier looking than COST. And, believe it or not, the final decision maker was just stepping into Walmarts over the past few months. They are ALWAYS packed, no joke. I even stepped inside there on a Friday night at 11:00pm to pick up some mixers before heading out and the place was absolutely packed. My jaw practically dropped. I knew it was a busy place, but even at 11pm on a friday night?! That sealed the deal for me. Target (TGT) wasn't even an option for me simply because I've been in a few Targets over the past few months as well and they are ghost towns compared to WMT. Not to mention, they aren't "cheap" in a sense like WMT and COST. TGT is a discount retailer sure, but I want the cheapest of the cheap in this kind of environment. I don't care how clean Target's stores may be, I'm focused on the pricing offered and the foot traffic. WMT ftw (for the win).




Lastly, I wanted to touch on DRYS. I "twittered" (see widget on upper right of the blog) that I sold the last of my DRYS off last week, as it had a monster run and started to see sellers coming in. However, yesterday I got right back in despite seeing heavy volume distribution in the name. Firstly, you'll notice on the chart that DRYS has had a monster run yes, but it has also had a monster pullback in the span of 1 week. Shares sat around $86 and were calling my name. Look at early February and see the recent peak of around $85 and then look at where DRYS is right now, sitting smack dab right on past resistance/now future support. So, knowing that DRYS had hit support on its pullback, I started a teaser position up in the name again because it had simply seen too much selling. The stochastics once again helped me in this decision as they had gone from overbought (around 80) to oversold (around 20) in the matter of a week's time. So, the stochastics signaled a buy, DRYS was sitting on support, and it had seen a massive sell off in only a week. I figured at the very least it was worth a trade, and I was right. DRYS popped 9% today (Wednesday 28th). But, don't get me wrong, I like DRYS as an investment here due to a few reasons. 1. They just reported great earnings a few weeks ago and the Baltic Dry Index wasn't even at all time highs. 2. Since that earnings report, the Baltic Dry Index has been screaming higher, meaning DRYS can charge higher rates on the spot market 3. DRYS operates a ton (practically all) of their rates on the spot market, so they will have an absolutely monster quarter to report next go-round. But, I must urge you to proceed with caution with this name. As you can see from the chart, its very volatile (just like the Baltic Dry Index) and you've got to keep a close eye on things to make sure you don't get shredded to bits. Keep an eye on the BDI to make sure DRYS is still cranking out high rates. Also, monitor the ships' availability, as there has been a shortage of ships lately. The heavy volume on the pullback showed signs of distribution I'm aware of that, but the sector has strong underlying fundamentals right now and saw a massive sell-off due to profit taking from the massive run-up in the first place. The strong volume today as DRYS ran right back up is positive as buyers returned with force. Look to trade this name at the very least, if not invest in it for the next quarter or so, as DRYS will really benefit from high spot rates.

Lastly, I just wanted to give a run-down of my overall portfolio. This blog details the occurrences within my main investment account, as well as my short term trading account. My investment account has anywhere from 15-20 stocks/etf's in it with a slightly longer investment time frame (anywhere from 3 months to years) and I scale in and out of positions, taking profits when I deem fit, and scaling back in on dips. My other account is for shorter term trades (1 day, 1 week, 1 month) and typically only holds 1-5 names at any given time. I set up this blog with the goal of providing complete portfolio transparency through Portfolio updates like these, and live trade updates with my Twitter widget in the upper right hand corner of this blog. That way I can outline my investment theses and get feedback from others. So, by all means feel free to bash my portfolio, make helpful suggestions, or just straight up question my decisions. Any and all comments are welcome, as I love outside input to make myself sure that I am in the right names for the right reasons.

Long Positions as of Weds May 28th in no particular order: AAPL (slowly taking profits as we near $200), QCOM, MA (been selling, waiting for a meaningful pullback to re-add), V, GS (just added), USB (writing covered calls on it & picking up the 5% dividend), RSX (Russia), ILF(Brazil/Mexico: AMX, FMX, BBD, ITU), TTEK (Water/Wind, courtesy of @jmclarty who initially brought this one to my attention), ETR, NLR (been taking profits), BIIB, GILD, ACI (wishing for a big pullback to really load up), POT, MOS (just added more on pullback), UNG, CHK, WMT (just added on the pullback), TMO, SDS (hedge: ultrashort s&p)

Short Positions: COF (covering the last of it though)

Watchlist: I've owned some of these names before, but waiting for pullbacks to get back into MEE, FLR, FWLT. Want to start a new position in MIL as well... waiting.

I've probably left out a few names but that should sum it up.

Blue Ridge Capital's 13F (John A. Griffin)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's HERE.)

Alright so now we're cruising through these hedge funds having already covered Steven Mandel's Lone Pine Capital and Boone Pickens' BP Capital. Next up, we have one of my personal favorites: Blue Ridge Capital ran by John A. Griffin. Now, Griffin is similar to Mandel/Lone Pine in that he too is Tiger Cub aka pupil of Julian Robertson at Tiger Management. However, there is one difference between Mandel and Griffin; Griffin was Julian Robertson's right hand man, while Mandel was merely an analyst (right, "merely," look where he is now haha). So, needless to say, the dude knows his stuff. Blue Ridge seeks absolute returns by investing in companies who quite simply dominate and shorting the companies who have fundamental problems. And, right off the bat that presents us with a bit of a problem in terms of analyzing 13F's. 13F's don't show short positions, they show long positions (unless the firm is short through puts, which we *can* see). So, the inherent problem with analyzing Blue Ridge (or any fund for that matter) is that we can't see the other side of their portfolio. But, this is increasingly important for Blue Ridge simply due to Griffin's investment strategy and the fact that his long positions could in essence only represent half of the portfolio. Now, I use that loosely because there's no way for me to know exactly how much of his portfolio is short. But, I do know that both Griffin and Lee Ainslie over at Maverick Capital (research on him coming later this week) like to effectively hedge with a balance of both long and short positions (like a TRUE hedge fund... not like some of these crazy funds these days with no true hedging). Here's the thing, they don't do pairs trades, so don't classify it as that. I remember specifically being told by representatives at Maverick that they don't pairs trade, even though a respective long and short could be in the same sector or sub-sector. So, make that distinction clear. But, we'll work with what we've got (and believe me, it's still a lot of solid info). Onto the 13F's!

The following is Blue Ridge Capital's current holdings as of March 31st 2008 as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. I've compared the positions in this most recent 13F to last quarter's 13F and here's what the breakdown looks like:

New Positions:(in no particular order)
Apple (AAPL) 1,150,000 shares
Burlington Northern (BNI) 700,000 shares
Eagle Materials (EXP) 1,965,000 shares
Echostar (SATS) 1,906,000 shares
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp (FRE) 500,000 shares
Federal National Mortgage Assoc (FNM) 480,000 shares
Fidelity National Information (FIS) 1,470,000 shares
First American Corp California (FAF) 1,050,000 shares
Google (GOOG) 493,000 shares
MBIA (MBI) 2,500,000 shares
Millipore (MIL) 2,700,000 shares
Office Depot (ODP) 3,400,000 shares
Research in Motion (RIMM) 600,000 shares
SLM Corp (SLM) 1,130,000 shares
St. Joe Co (JOE) 645,000 shares
Wyeth (WYE) 3,500,000 shares

Added to:
American Express (AXP) increased by 167% (5,393,200 more shares)
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) increased by 13% (98 more shares)
Compton Petroleum (CMZ) increased by 15.5% (890,400 more shares)
Fairfax Financial (FFH) increased by 50% (63,315 more shares)
First Marblehead (FMD) increased by 549%, no that's not a typo... 549% (1,154,500 more shares)
Fomento Economico Mexicano (FMX) increased by 103% (1,050,000 more shares)
Grupo Aeroportuario Del Paci S.A.B (PAC) increased by 53% (1,225,700 more shares)
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) increased by 17.5% (235,800 more shares)
Netflix (NFLX) increased by 210%, not a typo either (1,377,700 more shares)
Packaging Corp of America (PKG) increased by 30% (958,264 more shares)
Starbucks (SBUX) increased by 19% (1,150,000 more shares)

Reduced Positions:
Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) decreased by 2.2% (sold 161,501 shares)
Coach (COH) decreased by 38% (sold 1,440,000 shares)
Discovery Holdings (DISCA) decreased by 4.6% (sold 348,200 shares)
Formfactor (FORM) decreased by 25% (sold 295,000 shares)
Smurfit Stone (SSCC) decreased by 38% (sold 881,099 shares)

Removed Positions:
Positions Blue Ridge sold out of completely
Baidu (BIDU)
Domtar (UFS)
FedEx (FDX)
Gafisa (GFA)
Grace WR (GRA)
ishares TR Puts (IFGL Puts)
Level 3 Comm (LVLT)
Macys (M)
Mastercard (MA)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft Calls (MSFT Calls)
Novastar Financial (NOVS)
Nutrisystem (NTRI)
Pier 1 Imports (PIR)
Sears (SHLD)
Sterlite (SLT)
Teekay (TK)

Positions with no change:
America Movil (AMX)
American Express Calls (AXP Calls)
Corus Bank (CORS)
Covanta Holdings (CVA)
Crocs (CROX)
Elong (LONG)
Evergreen Energy (EEE)
Gold Reserve (GRZ)
Greenlight RE (GLRE)
Grupo Televisa (TV)
Indymac Bank (IMB)
Perfect World (PWRD)
Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Target (TGT)
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
Walmart (WMT)
Washington Mutual Puts (WM Puts)
Web MD (WBMD)

Top 10 Holdings by % of Portfolio:
1. AXP (Top Holding)
2. CVA
3. GOOG
4. MIL
5. TV
6. AAPL
7. SCHW
8. PAC
9. AMX
10. DISCA

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Breakdown: Alright lots to cover here. First major thing I noticed was Griffin selling out of MA entirely and seemingly replacing it with AXP. He beefed up his position in AXP by 167% and brought it all the way to the fund's top holding. So, clearly they wanted some credit risk to go along with the transaction processing. AXP offers the play on global transition from cash to plastic like MA and V, but they offer the added benefit/detriment (depending on how you look at it) of exposing themselves to credit risk as well. Many would argue that AXP has higher credit quality than that of say a COF or other banks of the like. But, my favorite way to play credit cards is still MA straight up. I can definitely see the play on AXP as well and don't get me wrong I like it, but I'm a big advocate of MA for pure transaction processing. So, considering numerous other Tiger Cubs (ex-Tiger Management funds) still hold MA, it was interesting to see Griffin be the sole person to completely sell off MA. Others merely took profits while he completely swapped out in favor of AXP. It will be very interesting come next quarter to see if any other funds in the Tiger family (Maverick, Lone Pine, Viking) added to AXP following Griffin and Blue Ridge's lead.

Second, just like Lone Pine, we saw Blue Ridge load up on tech, especially the titans AAPL GOOG and RIMM. Obviously all the old Tiger Cubs still keep in touch and share ideas and they all saw screaming opportunity in these names when they sold off hard. Griffin just started his position in GOOG and already brought it up to the 3rd largest fund holding, so he really loaded up. He also just started his position in AAPL and brought it to the 6th largest fund holding. So, as you can see, Griffin really likes these names and now is laughing at everyone who was selling at the lows while he was scooping those shares up in mass (both GOOG and AAPL up significantly since his pick up). So I expect him to obviously take some profits in these names come next round of 13F's, but I'm sure he will still hold a core position.

Thirdly, I noticed the Latin American theme going on. A lot of the ex-Tiger Management guys have been in AMX for a while so that was no surprise to see that still as a top 10 fund holding. However, what I noticed was Griffin slowly but surely building positions in other names. He added to FMX and increased his stake by 103%. He added to PAC by 53% and brought it to the 8th largest fund holding. And, not to mention, he's still got his big chunk of TV sitting as the 5th largest holding of the fund. So, Latin America is a big part of Blue Ridge's portfolio. And, he covers all industries. FMX with beverages, TV with television/entertainment, and PAC with airport service. (For the record, I love FMX and have for a while. I'll definitely be looking more in depth at those other two names.) So, overall so far we've got 2 themes, technology and Latin America.

The next major thing that quite simply confused me was Griffin adding FRE FNM FAF MBI as new positions. I'm not sure if he was screwing around with Fannie and Freddie and bond insurers because he was trading them or if he saw something that the rest of us don't (that wouldn't surprise me either). But, I've got to say that this move puzzled the hell out of me as I wouldn't touch any of those things with a 10 foot pole. But, it's there and he added them so take it for what its worth, but I have no idea how to explain that to you all. He also beefed up his position in FMD, an education lender by a whopping 549%. So, he wasn't messing around with these names, he was picking up shares in mass. Again, I'm not going to try and pretend to explain these moves because frankly bond insurance and the whole fannie/freddie complex makes no sense to me. I don't necessarily want to sit around reading hundreds of thousands of pages like Bill Ackman did in order to better understand the bond insurers, etc. So, there's the information, do with it what you will haha. But I'm not touching any of them.

This next addition really got me interested. In all the major funds I follow I've never seen this company in any of their portfolios: Millipore (MIL). And, Blue Ridge came in last quarter and started a position in it... and a massive one at that. Its the fund's 4th largest holding and it came out of nowhere. Millipore is a life science company and honestly I thought about adding it solely because Griffin came in and added it with such conviction. I'm doing more research on it now but definitely keep it on your radar. Griffin already has a solid maintained position in Thermo Fisher (TMO) to play the lab equipment side of things. I would not at all be surprised to see it in other funds' portfolios here come next quarter. Blue Ridge added a pretty massive position in this thing and I thought it deserved its own paragraph worth of mention.

Lastly, I just want to tie up a few odds and ends that are worth mentioning. Blue Ridge, much like Lone Pine, seemed to be closing out a lot of retail positions (reducing COH by 38%, removing M, SHLD, and PIR completely). But, what struck me as odd was that Griffin sold out of all these retail names, and then goes and starts a position in Office Depot (ODP). So, I was confused by that for sure. Maybe he saw some compelling valuations in ODP I'm not sure. Ex-Tiger buddy Lee Ainslie and Maverick Capital have a large position in OfficeMax (OMX) not the Depot, so that made me even more confused, as usually you will see similarities between their portfolios. But, Blue Ridge picked up some shares of the rival. I don't like either of these companies to be frank. ODP has a lot less debt, but is also trading at slightly richer valuations than OMX. Whaaaatever. Also, I noticed Griffin added to his SBUX a little bit, obviously on the news that Schulz would be back to shape things up in that slowing mammoth of a company. Next, I thought it was worth mentioning that Blue Ridge started a position in St Joe Co, a real estate development company. First off you've got Lone Pine starting a position in CB Richard Ellis (CBG - commercial real estate), and now you've got buddy pal Blue Ridge starting a position in JOE. Veeeery interesting. So, once again, something to watch in the coming months to see if other ex-Tiger funds start adding plays similar to these (or the exact same names). Again, I'm not touching these names as I think I can get much better return for my money in other sectors. But, then again, these guys are the hedge fund managers and obviously are a lot smarter than I. Next, I just want to point out that Blue Ridge sold out completely of their Nutrisystem (NTRI) position and at the same time last quarter Lone Pine added quite a large short position in NTRI through puts. So, if I was Mandel I'd probably have called up Griffin and said "hey yo I'm gonna short the shit out of NTRI so you might wanna wrap that position up... mmmmkay thanks bye." Ok, speaking of wrapping up, I want to highlight the fact that Blue Ridge has a measly 1 put position listed in their entire 13F... yup, just 1. Washington Mutual (WM) Puts. So, we get our tiny glimpse at what Griffin is on the short side of things with. Again, remember he is undoubtedly short a few/a lot of names in the fund but we don't get to see those on 13Fs. The only things we can see are long equity positions, call positions, and put positions. So, as I assumed coming into this: he is just straight up shorting rather than using puts. So, everybody go short the crap out of WM. Oh, wait, its already been driven down hard. Enter sad face here. And that's a wrap, thanks for reading.

My personal favorites out of Lone Pine's Portfolio:
AAPL MIL AXP FMX TV PAC AMX TMO WMT

Most interesting move(s):
1. Adding a boatload of technology and Latin American names
2. Adding Fannie/Freddie/MBIA/First Marblehead ........... ?!?!
3. Exchanging MA in favor of AXP by a lot. AXP = Fund's largest holding now
4. Adding Millipore (MIL) out of nowhere... and with conviction
5. Selling lots of retailers and yet starting a stake in Office Depot. what?!?

Note: Of their positions, I'm long AMX AAPL FMX WMT TMO
And names I will most likely be long after I finish research: MIL TV PAC

Tune in tomorrow when I examine (yet) another protege of Julian Robertson & the Tiger Management gang: Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital.

Lone Pine Capital's 13F (Stephen Mandel Jr.)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's HERE.)

The second hedge fund I'm covering in depth this week is Lone Pine Capital, ran by Stephen Mandel Jr. Lone Pine is an $8 Billion fund that has returned over 25% annually ever since its inception in 1997. Why is Mandel worth following you might ask? Well, he served as a consumer/retail analyst for Tiger Management back in the day for legendary investor Julian Robertson. Robertson's proteges/right-hand men have been nicknamed the "Tiger Cubs" and many have started their own funds. So, not only has Mandel learned from one of the best, but he has put up some very solid returns himself. Although Mandel was taught in the ways of finding undervalued companies, his funds typically employ a strategy of selecting stocks of solid companies with good management that are trading below their intrinsic value. Just this past year 1 of his funds was up 34% before fees while another was up 32% before fees. His track record speaks for itself. And, not to mention, he learned from one of the greats in Julian Robertson.

So, let's get right down to it... what was Lone Pine up to this past quarter? The following is Lone Pine Capital's current holdings as of March 31st 2008 as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. I've compared the positions in this most recent 13F to last quarter's 13F and here's what the breakdown looks like:

New Positions: (in no particular order)
CB Richard Ellis (CBG) 11,841,207 shares
Illumina (ILMN) 2,401,239 shares
Monsanto (MON) 2,441,900 shares
NY Times (NYT) Puts (100,000 of them)
Sears (SHLD) Puts (986,800 of them)
Teradata (TDC) 9,254,453 shares
Visa (V) 3,900,000 shares from the i.p.o.
XTO Energy (XTO) 8,069,313 shares

Added to:
Apple (AAPL) increased position by 381% (2,314,005 more shares)
CME (CME) increased position by 32% (144,506 more shares)
Deltek (PROJ) increased position by 18% (343,279 more shares)
Google (GOOG) increased position by 80% (721,474 more shares)
Infosys (INFY) increased position by 79% (3,070,924 more shares)
Nutrisystem (NTRI) Puts, increased put position by 278%
Sandridge Energy (SD) increased position by 53% (3,502,690 more shares)

Reduced Positions:
America Movil (AMX) reduced by 21% (sold 2,783,867 shares)
Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM) reduced by 26.5% (sold 3,037,700 shares)
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) reduced by 11% (sold 602,404 shares)
EMC (EMC) reduced by 25% (sold 3,622,624 shares)
Fastenal (FAST) reduced by 11% (sold 884,436 shares)
Mastercard (MA) reduced by 7% (sold 70,045 shares)
Priceline (PCLN) reduced by 34.4% (sold 1,075,046 shares)
Qualcomm (QCOM) reduced by 19% (sold 3,126,665 shares)
SAIC (SAI) reduced by 3% (sold 238,680 shares)
Southwest Energy (SWN) reduced by 27.7% (sold 2,829,432 shares)

Removed Positions:
Positions Lone Pine Capital sold out of completely
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Burlington Northern (BNI)
Career Education (CECO)
Carmax (KMX)
Coach (COH)
Eastman Kodak (EK)
Fidelity National Info (FIS)
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
Overstock (OSTK) Puts
Pharmerica (PMC)
Schlumberger (SLB)
Sina Corp (SINA)
Vulcan Materials (VMC)
WNS Holdings (WNS)

Positions with no change:
Bunge (BG) Puts
Eagle Materials (EXP)
SRA International (SRX)

Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. GOOG (Top Holding)
2. AMX
3. QCOM
4. XTO
5. AAPL
6. SD
7. FAST
8. CME
9. MON
10. CBG

--------------------------------------

Breakdown: Right off the bat I noticed two themes with Lone Pine's additions to the portfolio this quarter: technology and energy. Mandel started a new position in XTO this past quarter and brought it all the way up to the #4 holding in the fund. This was obviously a smart maneuver as XTO has exposure to both oil and natural gas, which are both roaring. Next, we see that he massively added to his AAPL position, by 381%, bringing it to the fund's 5th largest holding. He also added a bit more to his already top holding of GOOG. And, he obviously was buying on the big dip we just saw in that name. MON was a new addition to the portfolio and he added pretty big, making it the 9th largest holding in the fund and it appears this is the way he wishes to play the secular growth in agriculture (I prefer fertilizer myself, but that's a whole nother conversation). Also, interestingly, he added CBG, a commercial real estate services firm and brought it up to the 10th largest holding in the fund. This move puzzled me a little bit, as numerous people think commercial real estate will continue to suffer. Maybe this was a trade or maybe he just saw true value here... only time will tell. He added to his CME position some more (by 32%) and brought it up to the 8th largest holding in the fund. I like the exchanges here, but CME in particular could face major headwinds if the government decides to get involved as rumored. (I like NYX as an exchange play). Notably added to also was his position in INFY. This is significant only because I saw numerous hedge funds add to this name last quarter and so I had to mention it (more on that in the posts to come as well). Mandel has aggressively added to his put position in NTRI, so you might want to look at that as a good short candidate. Also, Lone Pine added to SD, which I pointed out in the last post, mentioning that Boone Pickens was one of many others who had added this name seemingly out of nowhere. Its a natural gas play so it makes sense, and it looks like its definitely time to do some research on this company to see what exactly all these funds are seeing.

Mandel also reduced his AMX position a tad, but it looks just to be profit taking, as it is still easily the #2 fund holding and a favorite of many hedge funds. The same can be said for QCOM... some profit taking to free up cash to put into other tech names. Still like QCOM though as it is in practically all the hedge funds' portfolios I follow. He sold off a little bit of MA as well, undoubtedly profit taking as that name has had a monstrous run, but should easily continue to perform as the world switches from cash to charging with plastic. Mandel's drastic reduction of his SWN position makes me think that he was beginning to swap SD in place of SWN, or he just wanted added diversification in the natural gas space.

Notably, Lone Pine sold completely out of AEO and they seem to have given up on the specialty retailer, waving the white flag in the dreaded consumer discretionary sector. I actually liked AEO due to their compelling valuations here (stock has been absolutely trashed). But, I will admit it was Lone Pine (& a few other funds) presence in the name that gave me added confidence. This was obviously a long term hold name, but it seems as if they have dumped it during these tough times to put the money in sectors that are working (tech, energy). Mandel also sold out of his large position in COH, further assuring us that he is done with specialty retail for now. Lastly, he completely scaled out of his KMX. I believe he kind of followed Warren Buffett into this name to begin with and then he realized that a) no one is really spending big money on cars in this economy and b) the people shopping at Carmax are not necessarily of the best credit quality. So, he was in and out of that name pretty fast.

My personal favorites out of Lone Pine's portfolio: AMX, AAPL, QCOM, XTO, SD, ILMN, INFY, MA

Most interesting move(s): 1. Getting into commercial real estate with CBG. 2. Adding to SD along with a ton of other hedge funds (they obviously all talked to each other about this one). 3. Selling completely out of all their (specialty) retail names (AEO, COH, KMX)

Note: Of their positions, I'm long AMX, QCOM, AAPL, SD, ILMN, V, INFY, MA

Tune in tomorrow when I go over another protege of Tiger Management legend Julian Robertson: John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital.

BP Capital's 13F (Boone Pickens)

Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's HERE.

So, first up this week we've got BP Capital. With all the commotion surrounding energy these days, I thought it was only fitting that we begin with an energy focused hedge fund ran by none other than Boone Pickens. If you are unfamiliar with Pickens, he is an energy maverick and his fund returned 300% in 2005. He is a big advocate of Peak Oil Theory and runs an energy-centric hedge fund based in Dallas, Texas. Although he typically holds numerous positions in oil, he is also big on alternative energy (except ethanol) and has numerous holdings there as well. He most recently advocated a large natural gas position and has additionally made a big bet on wind energy. His most recent thoughts can be seen here from my recent post.

Now, let's get down to business. The following is BP Capital's current holdings as of March 31st 2008 as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. I've compared the positions in this most recent 13F to last quarter's 13F and here's what the breakdown looks like:

New Positions:(in no particular order)
Halliburton (HAL) 1,476,346 shares
McMoran Exploration (MMR) 1,017,151 shares
Sandridge Energy (SD) 1,025,621 shares
Transocean (RIG) 1,085, 365 shares
XTO Energy (XTO) 716,762 shares

Added to:
ABB Ltd (ABB) increased position by 2.7% (70,878 more shares)
Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) increased position by 1% (3946 more shares. Note: This is also Pickens' company)
Dresser Rand (DRC) increased position by 2.7% (24,731 more shares)
Fluor (FLR) increased position by 2.7% (15,980 more shares)
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) increased position by 139% (422,788 more shares)
Greenbrier (GBX) increased position by 2.7% (15,183 more shares)
Interoil (IOC) increased position by 0.8% (7,652 more shares)
Jacobs Engineering (JEC) increased position by 2.7% (23,766 more shares)
KBR (KBR) increased position by 2.7% (16,353 more shares)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) increased position by 2.7% (52,277 more shares)
Schlumberger (SLB) increased position by 16.6% (164,306 more shares)
Shaw Group (SGR) increased position by 2.7% (17,914 more shares)
Talisman (TLM) increased position by 2.7% (79,210 more shares)
Titanium Metals Corp (TIE) increased position by 2.7% (28,847 more shares)
Weatherford Intl (WFT) increased position by 41% (160,845 more shares)

Reduced Positions:
Chevron (CVX) decreased position by 55% (sold 529,063 shares)
Denbury Resources (DNR) decreased position by 7.2% (sold 238,679 shares)
Suncor (SU) decreased position by 31% (sold 559,812 shares)

Removed Positions:
Positions BP Capital sold out of completely
Anadarko Petroleum (APC)
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Valero (VLO)

Positions with no change:
None

Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. RIG (top holding)
2. OXY
3. SU
4. SLB
5. DNR
6. FLR
7. ABB
8. JEC
9. HAL
10. TLM
---------------------------------------------------------

Breakdown: So, it appears that Boone Pickens is moving away from the integrated oil plays and into companies that do not have exposure to refining. He's cut his CVX position in half and gotten completely out of XOM and VLO. And, you can't blame him with Oil at current prices... refining margins just flat out suck here. I really like his move (back) into RIG. In his 13F prior to this one, he had sold out of RIG completely and I was very puzzled by that maneuver. But, good to see he's back in the name considering they are seeing very high high day rates. And, in fact, RIG is now BP's largest holding in the portfolio. And, he just picked it all up this past quarter. I wouldn't be too worried about him selling some SU seeing as he's probably just doing some profit taking as well as freeing up cash to put in more natural gas oriented plays. He's stated numerous times that he really likes the Canadian oil sands for their market positioning. He really beefed up his position in FWLT and it looks like he really likes infrastructure plays with his picks of FWLT, JEC, and FLR, with FLR being his top infrastructure holding. I definitely agree on FLR and FWLT, but I'm not entirely sold on JEC yet (time for more research). He also started a position in SD which is interesting because numerous other hedge funds also started a position in SD this past quarter (more on that in the posts to come). But, given his bullish stance on natural gas, this play makes perfect sense. So, there you have it, a glimpse inside Boone Pickens' mind and a peek inside his portfolio.

My personal favorites out of his portfolio: RIG, OXY, SU, FLR, FWLT, XTO
Most interesting move: His addition of SD, considering numerous other hedge funds added it too

Note: Of his positions, I'm long RIG, OXY, SU, FLR, FWLT, SD

Tune in tomorrow when I detail the changes within Lone Pine Capital's portfolio, ran by Steven Mandel (a protege of legendary investor Julian Robertson).

Hedge Fund Activity / 13F

(Just FYI: This post marks the first of a series I will be doing this week that details what the "smart money" has been up to lately.)

Four times a year, hedge funds & asset managers with > $100 million AUM (assets under management) are required to report to the SEC their holdings from the previous quarter. I check these 13F filings quarterly just to get a sense as to where these funds are putting their money sector wise. If you just sit down and do some simple number crunching between last quarter's 13F and this quarter's 13F, you can see exactly where these funds have been moving their money.

Now, these 13F's should be treated as a lagging indicator simply because the 13F's that were just released May 15th 2008 show the funds' holdings as of March 31st 2008. So, in the past month and a half, they could have completely changed their portfolio. But, at the same time, its easy to see which sectors they are flocking to.

I like to specifically follow value based hedge funds in the hope that they won't experience ridiculously high turnover and thus allowing me to track their sector rotations. Specifically, I follow the Tiger Cubs (otherwise known as the proteges of former Tiger Management legend Julian Robertson). Many of these former proteges/right hand men have started their own funds and here are the ones I've been following:

- Blue Ridge Capital (John Griffin)
- Lone Pine Capital (Steve Mandel)
- Maverick Capital (Lee Ainslie)
- Viking Global (Andreas Halvorsen)

Additionally, I also like to follow the Commodities Corporation "offspring" which typically employ a global macro strategy.

- Tudor Investment Corp (Paul Tudor Jones)
- Moore Capital (Louis Bacon)
- Caxton Associates (Bruce Kovner)

So, I follow a core of value funds in depth and then I also follow a core of global macro funds in depth. Over the next week, I will be going into detail as to what those specific funds were up to this past quarter. Additionally, I like to follow other "whales" and funds that are not necessarily value based, but are still top performers on Wall Street. I won't be going into detail on some of these names, but I will provide some very useful links that give a broad overview of what some of these whales have been buying/selling. Because, after all, you've got to at least keep tabs on what these guys are doing:

- Warren Buffett (obviously)
- Carl Icahn (rabblerousing at its best)
- RBS Partners (Eddie Lampert)

Then, of course, there are some just straight up beastly funds which you have to keep an eye on due to their awesome returns over the years:

- Atticus Capital (Timothy Barakett)
- BP Capital (Boone Pickens)
- Greenlight Capital (David Einhorn)
- Paulson & Co (John Paulson)
- D.E. Shaw & Co (David E. Shaw)
- Jana Partners (Barry Rosenstein)

And, lastly, a few deep value & activist funds.

- Third Point (Daniel Loeb)
- Pershing Square (Bill Ackman)
- Okumus Capital (Ahmet Okumus)
- T2 Partners (Whitney Tilson)
- Tontine Partners (Jeffrey Gendell)

So, over the coming week I'll touch on some important position moves some of these funds/whales have made (new positions, removed positions, etc). And, specifically, I'll be looking in depth at some of my favorite funds on a quarter by quarter comparison. Here are the links to my in-depth analyses of said funds.

- Blue Ridge Capital
- Lone Pine Capital
- Maverick Capital
- BP Capital
- Atticus Capital

Boone Pickens on energy

Just wanted to post this great video from Paul Kedrosky's site that has T. Boone Pickens talking about Oil, Natural Gas, Wind, Coal, Nuclear, and Ethanol. Its a long video (over an hour) but just put it on in the background while you're surfing. He brings up some interesting points. Basically, he's big on natural gas and wind. He would be big on nuclear but he says it takes too long and he's getting old haha. Also, he thinks you have to be in coal as well simply because there's such a large reliance on it. I detailed plays on all these types of energy below in my previous post.

The vid won't embed here for some reason, so here's the link to the video: Boone Pickens video

DNR: possible breakout next week

Just wanted to post this up before I forgot. DNR is forming a nice ascending triangle and has triple/quadruple topped out at around $33. It's right around there now on some solid volume. And, given its association with the natgas space, I expect it to breakout past the $33 resistance and for that level to then become support. Draw a horizontal line across 33 to see what I'm talking about. Making higher lows, MACD is crossing over, RSI is about to make some new highs, stochastics are heading higher. Everything looks pretty solid here. Not to mention, check out those phenomenal hammers everytime this thing touches the 200day ma... outstanding. (ps- anyone know how to save an annotated chart from stockcharts.com? can't figure it out for the life of me)

Adding

going long CTRP on a breakout-pullback-breakout scenario. pulled right back to its former resistance (now support) level of $62.50. Stop out on anything below that

adding to V on this dip

going long CCJ for both a breakout play and because I like this as an investment (uranium, nuclear, etc). More on this one later

also, nice risk/reward setup on WFR double bottom. $62.00 is the absolute bottom so stop out on anything below that and you can get long now. If it breaks to the downside, get short.

also like PCLN here

Some Trades

Just an update from some account moves I made today. Loaded up on COF puts today. The stock itself is a good short for fundamental reasons (analysis on that coming later this week) but also for technicals. There is a ton of recent resistance at $54-55, and then right above that you've got the 200 day moving average. And then, even further at $57.5 there is a double top in terms of most recent highs. So, basically you can pick up some puts (June 40s is what I got into) and then stop out if the stock trades above any one of those stops... just use what degree of security you want in terms of loose stops or conservative ones.


Also, been long MA for a while now. This is almost a pairs trade with COF but I never intended it to be haha. Anyways, took profits on MA today and will look to get back in here on the pullback, as I'm expecting the breakout-pullback scenario with their big earnings gap up. The transition from cash to plastic is a very real story, especially in other countries who aren't as reliant on plastic (yet) as the american consumer is.



Last idea I've got (and I'll analyze this one this week as well) is to short GLD if it closes below $86. That's the support line if you check out the chart and its my line in the sand. There are some fundamentals playing into this trade as well. Stop out if it trades above $86.50-87 (this stop kicking in of course *after* the stock has closed below 86 and initiated our short).