Should be the first real test of this 'rally' (if we can even get up that high). I will be looking to re-enter short positions at that level and then subsequently will stop out if we continue to march higher. 1275 was past support and is now future resistance.
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Target: $34. Goal: pure panic. Unless we get a major market rally that can drop the VIX out of its channel, we are still on the (slow but steady) road to continued volatility.
Yesterday on twitter, I "tweeted" that I was most likely going to get long Illumina (ILMN), and that's exactly what I did. If you haven't noticed, there's been a big rotation into healthcare/biotech/biosci companies as of late. I already have exposure to this somewhat through Gilead (GILD), Biiogen (BIIB), and Thermo Fisher (TMO). But, the positions are smaller relative to my overall portfolio. So, I wanted to increase my exposure there while still maintaining diversification in the various health/bio sectors. In this market, you play what's working. Taken from Google Finance,
"Illumina, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets integrated systems for the analysis of genetic variation and biological function. Using its technologies, the Company provides a line of products and services that serve the sequencing, genotyping and gene expression markets. The Company’s customers include genomic research centers, pharmaceutical companies, academic institutions, clinical research organizations and biotechnology companies. Its tools provide researchers with the capability to perform genetic tests needed to extract medical information from advances in genomics and proteomics."
(click to enlarge)I want to point out 3 charts that I've monitored/been monitoring. Each chart points out a separate staple of technical analysis. Yet, at the same time, they all illustrate the use of a stop loss and how you can identify where to place your stop on your holdings.
1.) Support/Resistance. These are areas on the chart that you can visibly see a stock either having trouble breaking through at, or finding support at. These are visual representations of the price action in the underlying stock. In this specific example, I want to focus on how you can use support/resistance to your advantage in terms of either placing stop losses or price targets. In this case, US Bank (USB) was considered to be a conservative bank. But, since they are still a bank, they are still a good house in a bad neighborhood. The dividend is nice and all, but the chart gave me a clear signal after it could not find support at a level of past support. I thus placed my stoploss right below this area of support. So, if the support failed to hold, I knew the stock would be headed lower and I would need to get out. And, that's exactly how it played out. On the chart, you can see a strong area of past support around $28. So, I placed my stop below that and got stopped out accordingly once it broke down past support. This stop loss saved me from the ensuing 25% drop USB experienced. This is the perfect example as to why you should have a stoploss on all your holdings. (Oh, and for those curious, I was only in USB to begin with because I was employing a buy-write strategy. They have a solid dividend, so I was pocketing the dividend (5%+) and then writing covered calls on the name every month to pocket more money since the stock essentially traded sideways for a long time).
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(click to enlarge)I've got a couple random/unrelated topics to cover so I just decided to mash them all up into one post.
1. Capitulation. Everyone and their dog is looking for it, and frankly, that makes me think we won't get it for some time. If everyone is waiting for everyone else to panic and sell, then who is actually going to be selling? It used to be that not many people paid attention to the Volatility Index (aka the VIX), but as the year has gone by, you see more and more people referencing it. It now appears that literally everyone is watching it. And, apparently there is a disconnect between the VIX and this market tumble (more on that later). At any rate, the VIX did spike on this morning's sour open. It spiked to 31 but then quickly retreated back down, laying down a nasty inverted hammer on the chart. We'll see how the rest of the day/week plays out.
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(click to enlarge)"Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC) is an integrated spirit beverages business. The Company produces vodka at two distilleries in Poland and is a distributor of alcoholic beverages. The Company is also an importer of spirits, wine and beer in Poland. Its products are also exported out of Poland. CEDC offers a portfolio of alcoholic beverages with over 700 brands."I'll be doing more research on this name, but you simply cannot ignore a great chart. Pull up any time frame: 1 month, 3 month, 6 months, 1 year.... they all look the same:
The Quote of the Week this time around is an oldie but goodie. Simply put,
"The trend is your friend."
Today I'm seeing interesting news that both Qualcomm (QCOM) and Jacobs Engineering (JEC) have been added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List. Now, typically I don't pay particularly close attention to analyst upgrades/downgrades and the like. I'll check out their price target and see if they're saying anything new or completey outlandish that separates them from the crowd. But, one list I do like to pay attention to is the Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List. This list carries weight for me simply because Goldman are one of the few firms truly surviving in this credit crisis. And, they are doing so by doing extremely well in their trading group. So, checking out their "A-list" for buys is a smart move simply because they have been killing it in the equities markets.
Reason I point out these two specific names (JEC + QCOM) is because I'm actively interested in these names. Qualcomm being added is a positive sign for me as I've recently added to my position on the touch of the 50 day moving average. They are one of my biggest tech holdings and will continue to be in the future. They are a big player in the mobile buildout space and also have a large hedge fund presence.
Jacobs Engineering (JEC) operates in the world of global infrastructure and has interested me for a while. I've been in and out of Foster Wheeler (FWLT), Fluor (FLR), and McDermott (MDR) for my exposure to this sector. Currently, I only hold FLR and am cautiously stalking other names to add to my infrastructure basket. Most of these companies have true global exposure and massive contract backlogs, which is reassuring. I'm still in the midst of my infrastructure research, but I'm most likely going to be adding FWLT (again) in addition to my FLR position. However, JEC keeps popping up on my radar, so I'll definitely be researching it more.
Let me preface this by saying I have absolutely no idea how much this will affect Infineon's (IFX) bottom line, but I would imagine it would have a solid impact. Everyone is expecting the 3G iPhone to be a big hit worldwide, which obviously benefits Apple (AAPL). But, there might be some other ways to play it if you're interested. With a little bit of digging today, I was able to find someone who had already disassembled the 3g iPhone (in New Zealand no less... since it's already out there). The people over at ifixit have literally taken apart the entire new iPhone to find all its components. Now, while there are still a few unidentified pieces in there, they have managed to identify the vast majority of components. And, I immediately noticed something: the 3g iPhone has numerous Infineon components. Again, let me reiterate that I am not sure exactly how much this will impact Infineon's bottom line, but it is obviously a positive for them.
The Infineon components can be found on the iPhone's logic board. As of right now, the team at ifixit have identified 3 chips as Infineon chips. And, there are rumors that 2 additional unidentified as of yet chips are from Infineon as well. They write that the identified Infineon chips include:
- "The largest chip in the top left corner is an Infineon 337S3394 WEDGE baseband."
- "Small chip to the right of the NOR: Infineon BGA736 (Tri-Band HSDPA LNA)"
- "The chip in the top middle is SMP 3i 6820, Infineon SM-Power3i. From Infineon: the part is 'optimized to support modem and data card applications based upon X-GOLD208 and X-GOLD 608, with features ranging from EDGE up to 3G and HSDPA.' "
Then, the 2 unidentified chips are believed to be the following Infineon components:
- "SP836175 G0822 337S3394 (rumored to be an Infineon baseband)"
- "338S03532Z 60814 (rumored to be an Infineon RF transceiver)"
Alpha is out with their Hedge Fund Hall of Fame. In it, they have listed the first 14 inductees who have had substantial impact on the creation and rise of the hedge fund industry. The inductees include pioneers from all backgrounds and investment styles. Taken from Alpha,
"The first 14 inductees have all had an outsize impact on the hedge fund industry, enjoyed spectacular long-term success and displayed tremendous originality, starting with Alfred Winslow Jones, the inventor of the modern hedge fund. James Simons is on a 20-year roll of 40 percent returns. Bruce Kovner made commodities trading a hot pursuit. George Soros’ larger-than-life adventures put hedge funds on the map, and Kenneth Griffin intends to ensure they stay there. Michael Steinhardt and Steven Cohen brought credibility to short-term trading. Paul Tudor Jones II is the macro trader writ large, Seth Klarman is the premier value sleuth, Leon Levy and Jack Nash pioneered the modern multistrategy fund, and Louis Bacon is the risk manager’s risk manager. Where they blazed trails, others followed — not least the “cubs” sent skittering into the investment world by Tiger Management Corp.’s Julian Robertson Jr. Some of the most influential figures aren’t managers at all, like Yale University’s David Swensen, who made the road less traveled acceptable."
What’s the most pressing issue facing the world?
"A Malthusian population explosion intersecting with globalization. We have encouraged all 7 billion of the world’s inhabitants to live like Westerners, and now that they have taken the bait, we are realizing it is impossible on this small Earth. The first big hit has been to the environment; the next, which we are witnessing, is to energy prices, and it is leading to food shortages and eventually more famines. Governments are only starting to address the problem, and the planet’s most inventive and powerful economy, America’s, is leading only from the rear, if at all, given our present administration."
Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corp, who has never suffered a losing year, talks about why you also have to focus on the tape/technicals:
What’s so special about macro hedge fund managers?
"I love trading macro. If trading is like chess, then macro is like three-dimensional chess. It is just hard to find a great macro trader. When trading macro, you never have a complete information set or information edge the way analysts can have when trading individual securities. It’s a hell of a lot easier to get an information edge on one stock than it is on the S&P 500. When it comes to trading macro, you cannot rely solely on fundamentals; you have to be a tape reader, which is something of a lost art form. The inability to read a tape and spot trends is also why so many in the relative-value space who rely solely on fundamentals have been annihilated in the past decade. Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it."
Just browsing through some reading yesterday and I stumbled upon 2 articles in the Wall Street Journal that had some pretty powerful quotes about natural gas. I intend to do a larger post on natgas in the near future, so for now I'll leave you with some quotes.
Taken from the following article is this quote:
"But one thing seems certain at least—the U.S. is going to need more, not less, natural gas in coming decades, and the rest of the world is, too. That’s bound to make fresh U.S. gas finds all the more attractive."
"Prices in the U.S. have risen 93% since late August as power-hungry nations like South Korea and Japan compete in a global natural-gas market that scarcely existed a half-decade ago. Still, U.S. prices are as low as half the level of some overseas markets, suggesting they have much further to rise."
Today I'm seeing a lot of interesting bits about wind power. The main bit I'm seeing is Boone Pickens' alternative energy plan found on the new website: http://www.pickensplan.com/. Longer term readers will know I keep tabs on Pickens simply because he's an energy maverick, has made a lot of money in the industry, and now runs BP Capital, an energy centric hedge fund. I've posted his thoughts numerous times. (I tracked his hedge fund portfolio holdings here, and I linked his thoughts on energy here). Now, although he's made the bulk of his money from oil, he's turning his focus to wind and natural gas; and rightly so. I've been bullish on alternative energy for some time now, saying that you need to play energy for the future. I've been assembling baskets of names in the wind, natural gas, solar, and nuclear spaces. But, that's not to say that Boone isn't still going to be invested in oil and other current energy plays. Besides playing energy for the future, you've got to play it for the intermediate term as I posted about here. Oil, coal, and natgas aren't going anywhere anytime soon, so you've got invest in those as well. And, if you think about it, natgas is the only type of energy overlapping in both the current energy picture and numerous people's plans for the future. So, I like to take a basket approach and pick a few names in each class and then have a dedicated percentage weighting to each type of energy.
But, back to wind. The main problem with investing in wind power is the lack of tangible options for the retail investor. There are a few companies who trade on the main exchanges, but wind is only a small sliver of their business. GE is the perfect example of this. They have wind exposure which is great, but a lot of people don't want the other stuff that comes with that company; they only want the wind exposure. The majority of wind-centric companies trade on the OTC and pink sheets (such as VWDRY.pk, BWEN.ob, CRPWF.pk, etc). And, the majority of investors either aren't comfortable investing over the counter, or simply don't know how to. So, its good to see wind getting more media exposure and 'hype' if you will. And, as investors, we've got to be playing it. I've said all along to spread your bets across all alternative energy classes, to cover your bases. Because in the end, there's no real way to know which ones will be prominent 20 to 30 years from now. If you're looking for a route 1 way to play wind, you could simply go through the new etf FAN. And, for your convenience, Jeffrey McLarty has sorted through the ETF holdings here. And, TraderMark highlights a new Wind IPO (Noble Environmental Power) here.
Lastly, I'm starting to see some wind names really breakout with heavy buying. Stewie highlighted Aerovironment (AVAV) over on his blog as a great technical setup. Some of you might remember me writing up a piece on AVAV here, after I learned they were the makers of architectural wind products (basically wind turbines on tall buildings). But, disappointingly, they are primarily a defense company and the wind segment of their business is tiny (although growing). If you want a trading vehicle, AVAV looks to be breaking out right now as Stewie pointed out. The overhead resistance in the high 26's has been taken out and should now act as support, and I'd be a buyer on the re-test of that support if you want to trade it. But, that's the main emphasis here, its a trading vehicle, not an investment (yet). I've got to monitor their wind segment growth over the next few quarters to really see if its a viable wind investment. Because, like many other 'wind' investments, the company is primarily NOT a wind company. They just have a wind segment of their business. At any rate, AVAV is breaking out and you can trade it if you like.
Whether it be through natgas, wind, nuclear, solar, you-name-it, you've got to be thinking ahead and playing energy for the future. Boone Pickens is a great person to follow in this regard as he is taking proactive steps to make Wind power a viable alternative through his wind farms in Texas. But, wind isn't the only option and he discusses that in the following video. Enjoy.
I'm going to be in and out today so instead of writing something up I thought I'd direct readers to a must-read piece over on TheOilDrum. This piece deals with energy transitions and I thought everyone even remotely interested in energy should take a gander. Check it out here.
(By the way, TheOilDrum is easily becoming one of my favorite energy resources on the web, so make sure to poke around the site for other great reads)
Hope everyone had a good extended weekend! Now it's time to get back down to business. This Quote of the Week is one of my personal favorites, and I think it is very applicable here in this current market. Over the coming days, weeks, maybe even months, there will be bountiful opportunities presented before us. But, many times, these opportunities slip past us, leaving us looking at them in the rear-view mirror. Without further ado...
"The opportunities that are clear in retrospect are rarely visible in prospect."
Today, we saw a disconnect between the price of Copper and one of the world's leading copper producers Freeport McMoran (FCX). Copper futures have been rising steadily the past few days and are approaching overhead resistance, looking to breakout. Yet, during this rise in copper prices, you will notice that the copper producer FCX got beat down in the market. So, we seem to have a disconnect here. Take a look at copper futures and you'll notice an area of strong overhead resistance. If it breaks this to the upside, copper could really take off. We're talking about a multi-year ascending triangle building here.
Then, compare this with FCX and you see a tale of two charts. FCX is now bordering on its 200 day moving average and I like it down here. Technically, the stock has been in a long uptrend and are a direct beneficiary of high copper prices and growing copper demand. And, to top it off, FCX has the added bonus of exposure to molybdenum, a metal hardly anyone knows about. Also, I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Atticus Capital has a large stake in FCX. Atticus is the 13th largest hedge fund in the world based on assets as recently catalogued by Alpha, which I posted about here. And, you can read more about Atticus Capital's portfolio holdings in the 13F analysis I did here.
Even if the selloff in FCX continues, I'm buying here because 1.) copper prices are high and look to go even higher, 2.) FCX is one of the best copper producers out there and benefits from higher prices, 3.) they have exposure to molybdenum, 4.) it is cheap on valuation as it trades at only 13.1 times trailing and 8.6 times forward earnings, 5.) they still are cranking out operating margins of 42% and a return on equity of 20.4%, AND 6.) each time the stochastics have reached oversold levels, FCX has presented us with a buying opportunity. And, that's exactly what is about to take place. If you look at the chart of FCX below, you will see the green circles on the main chart highlight the buyable dips. On the bottom of the chart, you will notice those buying opportunities coinciding with oversold stochastic levels.
So, the action we saw today was very puzzling to say the least. There was a clear disconnect between the price of copper and the copper producer FCX. I believe this is due to the fact that we have reached the stage in the market sell-off when even the market leaders get taken behind the woodshed and beaten. All the weaker sectors have already sold off and now it is time for the strong sectors to be taken down. After all, we're in bear territory. We saw this same scenario play out a few months ago when energy, commodities and the like all saw massive selling. And, after massive run-ups, we're back to the rinsing cycle of the rinse and repeat strategy. Watch FCX as it should provide a solid entry for a longer term investment. We may see continued selling due to the fact that hedge funds and the like are seeing redemptions and have to scrounge up cash to give back to their investors who want out. And, when you're short on cash, you have to sell your winners, which is exactly what they're doing.
Copper prices are rising and are close to really breaking out. Although Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold Inc has the word 'gold' in it, don't let that fool you. Copper is their game. Toss in the fact that they have exposure to molybdenum (think steel alloys) and this miner truly has exposure to some booming industries. Take advantage of the disconnect here between FCX and copper prices. FCX benefits from these higher prices and yet hedge funds and the like are forced to sell their winners due to redemptions. Their loss is our gain.
Paul Kedrosky posted up this lovely breakdown of the worst "June" returns on the Dow in History. And, although the month indeed was bad, it didn't necessarily feel that way. We never saw true panic, we never saw capitulation. Instead, we saw stocks slowly bleed it out. And, that led us to a month where the S&P500 was -8.60%. And, halfway through the year, the S&P sits at -12.5% YTD. But, for those of us with some sense and a solid gameplan, the month wasn't so bad. Why, might you ask? Well, because we saw this coming a mile away. We know the U.S. is still in a recession, we know the housing sector is accelerating to the downside, we know oil is setting record highs, and we know that the financials are still sorting through the rubble of the credit crisis. We are by no means out of the woods yet and my portfolio has been based on that for quite some time. I figured I would start posting up my monthly performance here, to stick with my theme of complete transparency. (Well that and the fact that I had a pretty damn good month and this seemed like an ideal time to brag, er I mean start logging my results on the blog haha). For the month of June, MarketFolly's portfolio was up 5.56%. And, year to date, the portfolio is up 10.5%.
Since I've now turned to focusing on absolute return rather than relative return, I'll leave you to do the math in terms of outperformance. And, as a matter of fact, after having some discussions with numerous absolute return portfolio managers, I've come to the conclusion that people still pay attention to the indexes no matter what. Even if absolute return technically has no metric for comparison, you still want to be outperforming the next best alternative (ie: stocks, bonds, cash, or other alternatives). And, the next best alternative could very well be the indexes on certain months, you never know. In the end, its all about semantics and just depends on the portfolio managers absolute return goals. There will always be people who will want to compare results to the indexes just because that is what has been ingrained in everyone's mind to begin with. As long as I know my goals in running an absolute return portfolio, then relevant return is meaningless and is just a moot talking point. I'm very happy with my results thus far, but I can merely attribute it to creating a gameplan and sticking with it. I didn't panic and I stayed disciplined. That is one of the most valuable lessons you can learn when dealing with financial markets.
The macro themes we've seen have continued to play out. Housing sucks, financials suck, the dollar sucks, the economy sucks, and commodities are roaring. Many of the gains for me this month are attributed to taking a strong round of profits in my Natural Gas (UNG, CHK) and Coal (ACI, MEE) names. Additionally, I locked in profits in the fertilizer plays at the new highs (POT, MOS) and then am starting to buy them back here down at these levels. Additionally, I have been shorting the market itself through SDS, which is the etf for Ultrashorting the S&P500. It seeks twice the inverse performance of the S&P. So, if the index goes down 1%, SDS should theoretically go up 2%. I usually use this (and a few other etf's) as a 'hedge' in my portfolio, layering in and out when the market makes drastic moves one way or the other. For instance, in the bear market rally we saw leading up to this recent decline, I was adding heavily to the SDS, seeing as I knew we were still in a bear markets and the charts showed this clear as daylight. And, I posted this chart a few weeks back reminding everyone we were still in a downtrend here :
And, if we pulled up that same chart now, you would see we have fallen another 50 points on the S&P. The green circle below shows what happened to the S&P in the few weeks after I posted the original chart above. Here's what things look like currently:
In the end, everything played out like we anticipated and locked in some nice gains. I have now been taking profits in SDS as I feel we are due for an oversold bounce (and apparently everyone else feels this way too, which is concerning.... but that's a whole different conversation).
The rest of the gains this month were due to some shorter term moves I had made, most notably with Capital One (COF). I have been in and out of this name on the short side, as I feel they truly have the most exposure to the 'next leg' of problems in the financials: increasing credit card receivables/rising delinquincies & bad auto loans. COF has exposure to both and is having problems. This name has been a major component of the short side of my portfolio, to ensure I'm truly hedged. And, what better way to reap the gains than to short a financial, right? My thoughts exactly. (Note: I've covered the last of my position last week and I am no longer short this name, but I will be looking to re-short on any major pops). I didn't actually blog post about this name in my portfolio, but I did 'tweet' about it numerous times on twitter (here's an example and here's another). So, this just goes to show why you should be following me on twitter! Or at the very least, reading the twitter posts that stream as I post them on the upper right hand corner of my blog. Here's a chart outlining my entry and exit from this name:
So, as you can see, all I did was stick to the gameplan and watch the charts for excellent entry/exit points in terms of risk/reward. I realize that these plays could have easily gone against me and continued to rally. But, if they did, I would have been stopped out right above the moving averages, and no harm done. It's all about knowing your risk/reward before even entering a position. For me, this month can be summed up by patience. The whole rally in the indexes from the middle of March until May was simply a rally in the midst of a bear market. I waited patiently until it found resistance, and then entered some short positions in financials (COF) and the market in general (through SDS). I continued to hold my fertilizer, coal, natural gas, and resource plays as they continued to benefit while the overall market struggled. Now, having taken profits in these names, I'll be waiting for pullbacks to re-enter the strong sectors of the market.
Next up: July. Will we see an oversold bounce? Will we continue to bleed it out slowly? Who knows. All I know is I'll be monitoring things closely, waiting patiently to set up my next move based on what happens at this test of support/the March lows on the indexes.
TheOilDrum has a post about John McCain's energy plan found here. Reason I point this out is because its a smart move to position your investments accordingly come the election in November. Both candidates have various implications for numerous sectors based on their proposed policies. And, I'd recommend figuring out how you want to position yourself should McCain be elected versus positioning yourself should Obama be elected, as both have different outcomes in a few sectors (namely energy and healthcare).
Couresy of vruz, I have stumbled upon a very thought provoking series of videos. These videos chronicle a presentation by Prof. Emeritus Dr. Albert A. Bartlett on “Arithmetic, Population, and Energy." The series is 8 segments long and they are all very insightful. I have to mention that the series starts off slow in the first segment as it is laid out like a class lecture. But, it picks up a lot in the second segment. If you sit down and take an active interest in the videos and follow his presentation, you will find the series fascinating. I realize many people these days are so busy they don't have the time to sit down and watch an 8 part video, so I'll embed arguably the most important segment (the 4th one) and then link the rest of the segments below for those who are interested.
Segment 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
Segment 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pb3JI8F9LQQ
Segment 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFyOw9IgtjY
Segment 4:
Segment 5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHuwgxrTKPo
Segment 6: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3y7UlHdhAU
Segment 7: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyseLQVpJEI
Segment 8: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoiiVnQadwE
I'm going to start a new 'tradition' here per se. Each Monday morning, I'm going to start off with a 'Quote of the Week.' These quotes will come from a collection I've assembled over the years from great investors/traders/books/etc. Whenever I've felt confused or overwhelmed, these quotes bring me back down to earth, preventing me from doing something stupid.
So, without further ado, the Quote of the week, a favorite of Eric Bolling's (highly successful energy trader/conoisseur):
"Trade with your head, not over it."
Alpha is out with the rankings of the top 100 largest hedge funds in the world for 2008. I'll list them by their 2008 ranking and will also show where they were this time last year so you can see who has moved where on the list. Here is the top 5 by their 2008 ranking:
1. JP Morgan Asset Management (ranked #1 in 2007 as well)
2. Bridgewater Associates (ranked #3 in 2007)
3. Farallon Capital Management (ranked #5 in 2007)
4. Renaissance Technologies (ranked #6 in 2007)
5. Och-Ziff Capital Management (ranked #7 in 2007)
And, I wanted to highlight some of the funds that I track in terms of where they fall on the list of largest hedge funds in the world for 2008:
#6 D.E. Shaw (#4 in 2007)
#13. Atticus Capital (#16 in 2007)
#17. Lone Pine Capital (#47 in 2007)
#18. George Soros (#25 in 2007)
#23 Tudor Investment Corp (#12 in 2007)
#24 SAC Capital (#28 in 2007)
#27 Moore Capital (#20 in 2007)
#38 Caxton Associates (#16 in 2007)
#50 Maverick Capital (#40 in 2007)
#53 Eton Park Capital (#70 in 2007)
#70 Viking Global Investors (#74 in 2007)
#79 Jana Partners (#80 in 2007)
#83 Icahn Partners ( not in the top 100 back in 2007)
#93 Blue Ridge Partners (not in the top 100 back in 2007)
Its very evident that three of the ex-Tiger management funds had great years. Lone Pine leapfrogged a ton of funds from 47th in 2007 all the way up to 17th in 2008. Blue Ridge was not even in the top 100 but now sit at 93rd. Viking moved up slightly from 74th last year to 70th now. But, in the end, you have to keep in mind that all the firms on this list could have either gained capital from new investors or they could have grown their capital through successful investments, or a combination of both.
None the less, interesting information. You can read through the whole list here.
Over on his site, Stewie has a great 5 year chart of the Dow Jones up. As he illustrates, we're right on the cusp of breaking convincingly through a major long-term trendline. Stochastics and various other signals are pointing to oversold so we should see some sort of a bounce here. But, still, scary stuff. I'll let the chart do the rest of the talking:
Then, combine that with the fact that we are seeing the largest net short position in the s&p in some time. This chart, courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group, illustrates that:
Fun times in the markets!
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