Investing in Wine (Even Wine Funds Are Popping Up Now?!)

I always have my eye out for interesting investment opportunities. And, this idea would definitely diversify your portfolio. Invest in wine. That's right, wine. I'm not really sure if this is just a temporary phenomenom or a secular trend building. But, I've certainly noticed a lot of hype and interest surrounding wine these days. Do note that I'm not necessarily recommending investing in wine, but I'm certainly paying attention to the trend. Are palettes around the world swapping beer for wine? It looks that way to me (albeit slowly but surely). And, I'm sure the consumer slump/recession in the U.S. will have something to say about that. But, over the past few months, I've seen more and more information popping up regarding investing in some choice wines. And, as I noticed recently in a WSJ Deal Journal article, a former UBS banker has even started up a $50 million 'wine fund' named The Bottled Asset Fund.

And, this next video is slightly older but I wanted to include it because it plays right into the investing in wine theme. If you missed it, Jim Cramer and Gary Vaynerchuk (wine guru) got together to discuss investing in wine, as seen on Vaynerchuk's Wine Library TV Show.


Lots of media attention around wine investing lately! We'll check back in a year to see if this was just a fad or if this actually has staying power.

Mutual Funds Getting Killed

The Stock Market is kicking ass and taking names (of fund managers everywhere).

"Out of almost 2,100 diversified retail U.S. stock mutual funds that are open to new investors, just 17 have positive returns for both the past 12 months and year-to-date, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc."

Source: MarketWatch

The Economy Sucks, the Housing Market Sucks, and the Consumer Sucks Too

Okay, I know the title seems pretty morbid. But, it's more realistic than you might want to believe. I want to point readers to a well-written piece that assembles some great data regarding the state of the American Economy. The article is aptly titled The Great Consumer Crash of 2009. It is written by James Quinn, a senior director of strategic planning at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (one of the most respected business schools in the country). I originally tried to pick out select parts of the article to present to you here. But, after re-reading his work, I've decided that you simply have to read the entire article. Check it out: The Great Consumer Crash of 2009.

And, if you find the article remotely intriguing, I highly suggest checking out some of Quinn's other articles found on his author's page on the same site.

Checking In On Daniel Loeb's Third Point LLC

As I mentioned earlier, I like to track a variety of hedge funds with different strategies just to see what everyone is up to each quarter. And, while I don't necessarily go in-depth on each fund, I do like to monitor major changes to their portfolios. In addition to tracking activist fund Greenlight Capital managed by David Einhorn (which I wrote about here), I also like to track the activist exploits of Daniel Loeb. Loeb runs Third Point LLC, a $4.5 billion activist hedge fund. While Third Point is technically an activist fund, Loeb often has numerous passive investments as well.

So, after comparing his most recent 13F filing with the one from last quarter, we can see a few major moves that Loeb has made with Third Point's portfolio. Please note that this is by no means a complete summary of changes. I am simply pointing out a few changes of interest.

New Positions:
American Superconductor (AMSC)
Chesapeak Energy (CHK)
Petrohawk Energy (HK)
Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)
Sandridge Energy (SD)
Starwood Hotels (HOT)
Teradata (TDC)
XTO Energy (XTO)

Added to:
AK Steel (AKS)
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Leap Wireless (LEAP)
Plains Exploration (PXP)

Reduced Positions:
GLG Partners (GLG)
Mastercard (MA)
Safeway (SWY)

Removed Positions (positions Loeb sold out of completely):
Applied Biosystems (ABI)
Chipotle (CMG)
Cypress Semiconductor (CY)
Mylan (MYL)


Some of Third Point's top holdings (in no particular order) include: Plains Exporation (PXP), Questar (STR), Mastercard (MA), Clear Channel (CCU), and Microsoft (MSFT).

Again, please note that this is merely some highlights of their portfolio and does not detail all of the changes made. If you're interested in more in-depth analysis of some hedge fund portfolios, check out some of the write-ups I've done on the blog (Blue Ridge Capital, Lone Pine Capital, & many more). And, if you're interested in every position Loeb held as of June 30th, you can view Third Point's entire recent 13F as filed with the SEC here.

Hedge Fund Tracking: Maverick Capital's 13F (Lee Ainslie)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here).

Here we are with another week of the Hedge Fund tracking series. If you've missed them, I've already covered Jeffrey Gendell's Tontine Partners here, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital here, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital here, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital here, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital here. Next up, we have Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital. Lee Ainslie started Maverick Capital back in 1993 with $38 million. Nowadays, the fund is worth $10 billion. Ainslie, like many of the other fund managers I've profiled, has a background rooted in learning from legendary great Julian Robertson at Tiger Management. So, due to the fact that these proteges learned from the best and have had great success running their own funds, I continually try to find a reason not to follow these funds. And, needless to say I'm never successful. Some contacts over at Maverick have explained that their strategy is straight up stock picking, both long and short. They made it clear though, that they do not employ pairs trades. Although, some of their long/short setups might be in the same sector. They try to hedge their positions like a true hedge fund by picking out the shining stars in certain sectors, as well as identifying the pieces of garbage. Now, of course, this presents us with a problem in that the 13F filings only show long positions (unless they're holding puts on a name, we can see those). So, a good amount of Maverick's portfolio (the entire short side) is unbeknownst to us, because they have reported zero put positions. But, let's look on the bright side in that we can see all their long positions. Maverick uses a value approach (obviously learned from Julian) and one of their most popular metrics is finding companies and comparing their enterprise value to sustainable free cash flow.

So, now that we've got a little background on Maverick, let's see what they were up to. Once again, I'd like to give thanks to Alex Prywes for helping me gather and sort through the data of numerous hedge funds (including the one below). Thanks to Alex's help, we can now cover even more funds. And, on that note.... onto the 13F! The following are Maverick Capital's current holdings as of June 30th 2008, as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The positions in this most recent 13F were compared to last quarter's 13F and here are the changes made to their portfolio:

New Positions:
First Solar (FSLR): 1,202,118 shares. This position is 2.93% of Maverick's portfolio.
Lorillard (LO): 3,820,856 shares. This position is 2.36% of Maverick's portfolio.
CVS Caremark (CVS): 5,912,073 shares. This position is 2.09% of Maverick's portfolio.
Netapp (NTAP): 9,331,862 shares. This position is 1.81% of Maverick's portfolio.
ITT Educational Services (ESI): 2,422,090 shares. This position is 1.79% of Maverick's portfolio.
Macy's (M): 9,008,174 shares. This position is 1.56% of Maverick's portfolio.
Hansen Natural (HANS): 5,712,952 shares. This position is 1.47% of Maverick's portfolio.
Polo Ralph Lauren (RL): 2,431,244 shares. This position is 1.36% of Maverick's portfolio.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS): 7,589,473 shares. This position is 1.20% of Maverick's portfolio.
Cigna Corp (CI): 2,931,045 shares. This position is 0.93% of Maverick's portfolio.
Digital River Inc (DRIV): 1,974,144 shares. This position is 0.68% of Maverick's portfolio.
Viacom Inc (VIA): 2,442,500 shares. This position is 0.67% of Maverick's portfolio.
Forest Labs (FRX): 1,789,900 shares. This position is 0.56% of Maverick's portfolio.
Lamar Advertising (LAMR): 1,542,918 shares. This position is 0.50% of Maverick's portfolio.
Visa (V): 565,005 shares. This position is 0.41% of Maverick's portfolio.
South Financial Group (TSFG): 50,000 shares. This position is 0.38% of Maverick's portfolio.
Athena Health (ATHN): 1,245,819 shares. This position is 0.34% of Maverick's portfolio.
National City Corp (NCC): 6,625,176 shares. This position is 0.28% of Maverick's portfolio.
Sohu.com Inc (SOHU): 170,485 shares. This position is 0.11% of Maverick's portfolio.
MSCI Inc (MXB): 287,186 shares. This position is 0.09% of Maverick's portfolio.
Universal American (UAM): 1,004,391 shares. This position is 0.09% of Maverick's portfolio.
Comscore (SCOR): 436,640 shares. This position is 0.09% of Maverick's portfolio.
Citizens Republic Bancorp (CRBC): 937,500 shares. This position is 0.02% of Maverick's portfolio.


Added to:
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): Increased position by 1412%. Position is now 0.45% of their portfolio.
Gmarket (GMKT): Increased position by 317%. Position is now 0.19% of their portfolio.
Infinera (INFN): Increased position by 171%. Position is now 0.54% of their portfolio.
American Capital (ACAS): Increased position by 141%. Position is now 0.30% of their portfolio.
Nordstrom (JWN): Increased position by 136.61%. Position is now 2.79% of their portfolio.
America Movil (AMX): Increased position by 129.88%. Position is now 3.91% of their portfolio.
Lexmark (LXK): Increased position by 109.39%. Position is now 1.42% of their portfolio.
Citrix (CTXS): Increased position by 109.36%. Position is now 2.20% of their portfolio.
Bank of New York Mellon (BK): Increased position by 55.42%. Position is now 3.15% of their portfolio.
Baxter Intl (BAX): Increased position by 51.69%. Position is now 2.90% of their portfolio.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Increased position by 45.89%. Position is now 2.87% of their portfolio.
Raytheon (RTN): Increased position by 41.72%. Position is now 2.58% of their portfolio.
Fidelity National Info (FIS): Increased position by 40.56%. Position is now 2.05% of their portfolio.
Covidien (COV): Increased position by 32.99%. Position is now 2.32% of their portfolio.
Liberty Media Corp (LMDIA): Increased position by 28.09%. Position is now 1.59% of their portfolio.
Resmed (RMD): Increased position by 26.46%. Position is now 0.74% of their portfolio.
Burlington Northern (BNI): Increased position by 22.73%. Position is now 1.83% of their portfolio.
Google (GOOG): Increased position by 22.27%. Position is now 1.72% of their portfolio.
Genentech (DNA): Increased position by 21.38%. Position is now 1.40% of their portfolio.
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH): Increased position by 20.28%. Position is now 1.73% of their portfolio.
Cypress Bioscience (CYPB): Increased position by 19.98%. Position is now 0.20% of their portfolio.
Apple (AAPL): Increased position by 19.45%. Position is now 4.09% of their portfolio.
Research in Motion (RIMM): Increased position by 15.41%. Position is now 4.08% of their portfolio.
MetroPCS Comm (PCS): Increased position by 13.6%. Position is now 0.77% of their portfolio.
Home Inns & Hotels (HMIN): Increased position by 7.72%. Position is now 0.54% of their portfolio.
Gilead Sciences (GILD): Increased position by 6.66%. Position is now 2.37% of their portfolio.
Marvell Technology (MRVL): Increased position by 5.24%. Position is now 3.08% of their portfolio.
Newstar Financial (NEWS): Increased position by 5.21%. Position is now 0.14% of their portfolio.
Cardinal Health (CAH): Increased position by 3.33%. Position is now 1.56% of their portfolio.
Amylin Pharma (AMLN): Increased position by 2.84%. Position is now 0.58% of their portfolio.
Discovery Holding (DISCA): Increased position by 1.74%. Position is now 1.21% of their portfolio.
Palm (PALM): Increased position by 1.40%. Position is now 0.51% of their portfolio.
Lumber Liquidators (LL): Increased position by 1.14%. Position is now 0.26% of their portfolio.
China Nepstar (NPD): Increased position by 0.75%. Position is now 0.18% of their portfolio.
First Advantage (FADV): Increased position by 0.65%. Position is now 0.15% of their portfolio.
Under Armour (UA): Increased position by 0.17%. Position is now 0.83% of their portfolio.
Mylan Inc (MYL): Increased position by 0.06%. Position is now 1.09% of their portfolio.
Monsanto (MON): Increased position by 0.04%. Position is now 1.68% of their portfolio.
Potash (POT): Increased position by 0.03%. Position is now 2% of their portfolio.


Reduced positions:
Thermo Fisher (TMO): Reduced their position by 4.91%. Position is now 1.68% of their portfolio.
Western Union (WU): Reduced their position by 10.2%. Position is now 2.08% of their portfolio.
Marsh & Mclennan (MMC): Reduced their position by 12%. Position is now 1.55% of their portfolio.
Textron Inc (TXT): Reduced their position by 18.93%. Position is now 1.44% of their portfolio.
Wyeth (WYE): Reduced their position by 20.6%. Position is now 1.46% of their portfolio.
Leap Wireless (LEAP): Reduced their position by 23.40%. Position is now 0.39% of their portfolio.
Trubion Pharma (TRBN): Reduced their position by 24.38%. Position is now 0.04% of their portfolio.
Dish Network (DISH): Reduced their position by 27.75%. Position is now 1.13% of their portfolio.
Avon Products (AVP): Reduced their position by 33.23%. Position is now 1.36% of their portfolio.
JP Morgan Chase (JPM): Reduced their position by 38.68%. Position is now 0.89% of their portfolio.
Cognizant (CTSH): Reduced their position by 42.97%. Position is now 0.85% of their portfolio.
DirecTV (DTV): Reduced their position by 49.69%. Position is now 0.83% of their portfolio.
Suntrust Banks (STI): Reduced their position by 50%. Position is now 0.16% of their portfolio.
Gamestop (GME): Reduced their position by 51.64%. Position is now 0.81% of their portfolio.
Corcept (CORT): Reduced their position by 57.49%. Position is now 0.01% of their portfolio.
Bluefly (BFLY): Reduced their position by 90%. Position is now 0.11% of their portfolio.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): Reduced their position by 95%. Position is now 0.66% of their portfolio.


Removed Positions (Positions Maverick sold out of completely):
Hanesbrands (HBI)
Autozone (AZO)
Bankrate (RATE)
CNET (CNET)
Crocs (CROX)
Cumulus Media (CMLS)
Harmonic (HLIT)
Loews (L)
Move Inc (MOVE)
Nucor (NUE)
OfficeMax (OMX)
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Salesforce (CRM)
Sandisk (SNDK)
Sears (SHLD)
Starbucks (SBUX)
UnitedHealth (UNH)


Positions with no change:
VMWare (VMW). Position is 0.59% of their portfolio.
BPW Acquisition (BPW). Position is 0.18% of their portfolio.
FIrst Marblehead (FMD). Position is 0.05% of their portfolio.
Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT). Position is 0.01% of their portfolio.
Vivus (VVUS). Position is 0.01% of their portfolio.


Top 20 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. Apple (AAPL): 4.09% of the portfolio
2. Research in Motion (RIMM): 4.08% of the portfolio
3. America Movil (AMX): 3.91% of the portfolio
4. Bank of New York Mellon (BK): 3.15% of the portfolio
5. Marvell Tech (MRVL): 3.08% of the portfolio
6. First Solar (FSLR): 2.93% of the portfolio
7. Baxter Intl (BAX): 2.90% of the portfolio
8. Advanced Micro (AMD): 2.87% of the portfolio
9. Nordstrom (JWN): 2.79% of the portfolio
10. Raytheon (RTN): 2.58% of the portfolio
11. Gilead (GILD): 2.37% of the portfolio
12. Lorillard (LO): 2.36% of the portfolio
13. Covidien (COV): 2.32% of the portfolio
14. Citrix (CTXS): 2.20% of the portfolio
15. CVS Caremark (CVS): 2.09% of the portfolio
16. Western Union (WU): 2.08% of the portfolio
17. Fidelity National Info (FIS): 2.05% of the portfolio
18. Potash (POT): 2.00% of the portfolio
19. Burlington Northern (BNI): 1.83% of the portfolio
20. Netapp (NTAP): 1.81% of the portfolio

----------------------------------------------------

Breakdown: Maverick changed up their portfolio a decent amount over the past quarter. Most notable are their changes within their top 10 holdings. Hedge fund favorite Qualcomm (QCOM) was Maverick's 3rd largest holding last filing. This filing, they no longer even hold a position. Additionally, they were selling off chunks of other top 10 holdings from last quarter. They sold off 33% of their position in Avon Products (AVP), which was their 4th largest holding just one quarter ago. They also sold over 51% of their Gamestop (GME) position, which last quarter was their 7th largest holding. With those positions vacating their place in the top 10 holdings of Maverick's portfolio, new holdings obviously took their place. America Movil (AMX), another hedge fund favorite, was Maverick's 9th largest holding last time. This time, they increased their position by 129% and it is now their 3rd largest holding. They obviously used the weakness in this name to add to their position, just like fellow 'Tiger Cub' fund Lone Pine Capital, as I wrote about here. Maverick also added heavily to Nordstrom (JWN), increasing their position by 136% and making it now their 9th largest holding.

Maverick was out adding to tech across the board. Apple (AAPL) and Research in Motion (RIMM) are their top 2 largest holdings respectively, as they boosted their positions in both by over 14% each. Additionally, they added to their Marvell (MRVL) position, bringing it up to the fund's 5th largest position now. Maverick also continues to build a position in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), as it now is their 8th largest holding.

Among their new positions this quarter are First Solar (FSLR), Lorillard (LO), and CVS Caremark (CVS). I highlight these three in particular because Maverick started large, new positions in all three names. First Solar (FSLR) was brought up all the way to the fund's 6th largest holding after not even owning shares last quarter. They started a new position in CVS Caremark (CVS) and brought it up to the fund's 15th largest holding. Also, they added heavily to Lorillard (LO) as well, making this new position their 12th largest holding. This position is interesting because we also saw Lone Pine Capital (ran by Stephen Mandel Jr.) start a new position in this exact same name, as I wrote about here. And, actually, this is not the only position that both Maverick and Lone Pine both started together. In this 13F filing, we see that Maverick started a position in Hansen Natural (HANS). And, as I wrote about here, Lone Pine recently disclosed that they have a 7.8% stake in HANS. It's definitely common to see many similar positions within the portfolios of various 'Tiger Cub' managers who now run their own funds because they all undoubtedly keep in touch and come from the same school of thought.

One last thing I would like to point out is Maverick selling completely out of various consumer related names. They sold completely out of their positions in Autozone (AZO), Hanesbrands (HBI), Sears (SHLD), Starbucks (SBUX), Crocs (CROX), and OfficeMax (OMX).

You can view their most recent 13F as filed with the SEC here.

Check back each day this week as my 13F tracking series continues. Funds I will be covering this week include: Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp, Louis Bacon's Moore Capital Management, Boone Pickens' BP Capital, and Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital.

Checking In On David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital

I like to track a variety of hedge funds with different strategies just to see what everyone is up to each quarter. And, while I don't necessarily go in-depth on each fund, I do like to monitor major changes to their portfolios. One main activist fund I follow is Greenlight Capital. Greenlight is a $6 billion fund ran by David Einhorn and has had an annual return of over 25%. Greenlight specializes in spin-offs and value investing. Einhorn's name has been popping up in the media a lot in recent months as he talked about his well documented short position in Lehman Brothers (LEH).

So, after comparing his most recent 13F filing with the one from last quarter, we can see a few major moves that Einhorn has made with Greenlight's portfolio. Please note that this is by no means a complete summary of changes. I am simply pointing out a few changes of interest.

New Positions:
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS) - a spinoff from Cadbury
Teradata (TDC)

Added to:
Helix Energy (HLX) - increased position by 12%

Reduced Positions:
Microsoft (MSFT) - reduced position by 33.1%
Target (TGT) - reduced position by 16.6%

Removed Positions (positions Greenlight sold completely out of):
Discover Financial (DFS)

Some of Greenlight's Top Holdings (in no particular order) include: Ameriprise Financial (AMP), Helix Energy (HLX), Microsoft (MSFT), Target (TGT), Health Management Associates (HMA), and M.D.C. Holdings (MDC).

Again, please note that this is merely the highlights of their portfolio and does not detail all of the changes made. If you're interested in more in-depth analysis of some hedge fund portfolios, check out some of the write-ups I've done on the blog (Blue Ridge Capital, Lone Pine Capital, & many more). And, you can view their Greenlight's recent 13F as filed with the SEC here.

Also, I wanted to point out that David Einhorn has a recent book out, Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: A Long Short Story. In it, he details the saga between his hedge fund (Greenlight Capital) and a company he shorted (private financer Allied Capital). I'm currently reading the book and will be posting a review of it on this blog once I finish. So far, it's a good read. It gives you an inside perspective as to how Greenlight goes about constructing and researching their investment theses. Check it out if you're interested.

Paul Tudor Jones & Tudor Investment Corp Update

Just came across some information regarding our macro pal Paul Tudor Jones. According to the NY Post, Tudor has gone quantitative, opening a new fund with nearly $1 billion called the Tensor fund, run by Steve Evans. This, of course, in addition to their macro and equity funds. And, apparently, their quant fund is kicking ass and taking names. Currently returning 18.9% year to date, their Tensor fund is besting the likes of quant legends Goldman Sachs' Global Equities Opportunities fund (up less than 1% year to date) and Jim Simons' Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund (down 4% year to date).

Also, as reported earlier this month, Paul Tudor Jones and his sidekick James Pallotta will be parting company come the end of the year, with Pallotta off to start his own equities fund (which I will be keeping my eye on when he spins off).

Lastly, we now know that Tudor Investment Corp's main fund, the $11 billion B.V.I. Fund, is up 2.3% year to date. Check back later this week, as I will be detailing the changes to Tudor's portfolio as I analyze their quarterly 13F filing.

Source: NY Post

Running a Hedge Fund is Tough in This Environment

If any of you have ever watched CNBC, you've undoubtedly seen Ron Insana on there at some point. He was one of their big anchors and had been with the channel for a long time. What you might not know, though, is that he eventually left CNBC to start a Hedge Fund of Funds. And, as we see from this article, running a hedge fund, or a fund of funds for that matter, is tough in this environment (duh).

"So, tell me about this credit crisis..."

Over the past few months, I have been receiving numerous inquiries from friends regarding the economy. And, unsurprisingly, numerous questions I receive relate to the credit crisis and its origins. Thankfully, an article over on Fortune has emerged which outlines the situation in plain English. So, for those of you wanting some more background on the situation, or if you have friends you're tired of explaining things to, point them to the aptly named article, "Credit crisis, explained."

Technical Analysis Roundup

Circling through some of my favorite blogs, I found some charts worth posting up here in what I like to call the 'Technical Analysis Round-up.' Longer term readers will know I like to reference charts simply because its a great tool to have in your investing arsenal. While I like to make investment decisions based on fundamentals, the technicals (a.k.a. the tape) can often provide additional insight to aid you in your quest. The fundamentals determine the 'why,' while the technicals determine the 'when' and 'how.' Glancing at a few charts can more often than not give you a great view of the price action surrounding some macro occurrences. Paying attention to volume, divergences, price patterns, and especially trend lines can provide you with great risk/reward setups. I'm not here to start a debate on fundamentals versus technicals because those arguments go in circles. I simply use both tools because they both offer unique information. If you're looking for reasons as to why you should pay attention to both the fundamentals and the technicals, then I will simply point you to interviews with some well known hedge fund managers that I've posted here and here.

Now, on to the Technical Analysis Roundup. First, over on Stewie's blog, he has a chart up of the Oil Services Index that shows a test of a long term trendline. This trendline can serve as a great entry into an easy risk/reward play. Buy the dips in oil service names as it approaches the trendline. Place your stop just below the trendline in case it is broken to the downside. Very simple risk/reward play that takes emotion out of the game. Oil will probably need to see some strength for the oil service names to take off here.

(click to enlarge)

And, unsurprisingly, the chart of oil has a similar setup, as detailed on Steve Puri's blog. As you can see, oil has a very similar setup in terms of risk/reward. You have an easy entry and a crystal clear area to place your stop. If the selloff in oil continues, your stop gets taken out and you move on to the next idea. Oil has traded very well on a technical basis and I would expect that trend to continue. Given the volatility in all markets recently, everyone is looking to the technicals as a guidling light. Although the action in the underlying commodity is driven by fundamentals, it has traded very technically sound. Just like the oil services, we see an opportunity for a very defined risk/reward setup with clear entry and exit points.

(click to enlarge)

Lastly, I want to highlight a chart posted over on Kevin's Market Blog. There, Kevin examines a major long-term trendline being violated in the British Pound. The British Pound has declined in value for fundamental reasons. Among them, a stronger U.S. Dollar, and an overall weakening environment in England and Europe in general. This fundamental decline in the currency is illustrated by the latest major drop on the chart. And, at the same time, technicians will tell you that since the trendline is broken, a short position in the Pound might be advisable. And, at the very least, technicians would have exited any long positions in the Pound once that long term trendline was broken.

(click to enlarge)

Hedge Fund Tracking: Lone Pine Capital's 13F (Stephen Mandel Jr.)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here).

The Hedge Fund 13F Tracking series continues. If you've missed them, I've already covered Jeffrey Gendell's Tontine Partners here, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital here, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital here, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital here. Next up, we have Lone Pine Capital, managed by Stephen Mandel Jr. Lone Pine is an $8 Billion fund that has returned over 25% annually ever since its inception in 1997. Why is Mandel worth following you might ask? Well, he served as a consumer/retail analyst for Tiger Management back in the day for legendary investor Julian Robertson. Robertson's proteges/right-hand men have been nicknamed the "Tiger Cubs" and many have started their own funds. So, not only has Mandel learned from one of the best, but he has put up some very solid returns himself. Mandel is well versed in the ways of finding undervalued companies and his funds typically like to sniff out solid companies with good management that are trading below their intrinsic value. Just this past year 1 of his funds was up 34% before fees while another was up 32% before fees. His track record speaks for itself. And, not to mention, he learned from one of the greats in Julian Robertson. However, as I wrote about here, Lone Pine has had a rough 2008, where their Lone Cedar Fund was -5.38% year to date (as of the middle of July '08). By analyzing their 13F, maybe we'll be able to see where they are slipping up.

Once again, I'd like to give thanks to Alex Prywes for helping me gather and sort through the data of numerous hedge funds (including the one below). Thanks to Alex's help, we can now cover even more funds. And, on that note.... onto the 13F! The following are Lone Pine Capital's current holdings as of June 30th 2008, as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The positions in this most recent 13F were compared to last quarter's 13F and here are the changes made to their portfolio:

New Positions:
Entergy Corp (ETR): 3,518,632 shares. This position is 6.06% of Lone Pine's portfolio.
Weatherford Intl (WFT): 4,820,337 shares. This position is 3.42% of Lone Pine's portfolio.
Lorillard Inc (LO): 3,328,911 shares. This position is 3.29% of Lone Pine's portfolio.
Amazon (AMZN): 2,527,634 shares. This position is 2.65% of Lone Pine's portfolio.
Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD) Puts: 1,336,800. This position is 1.41% of Lone Pine's portfolio.


Added to:
America Movil (AMX): Increased position by 39.5%. Position is now 10.74% of their portfolio.
Sandridge Energy (SD): Increased position by 22.24%. Position is now 11.35% of their portfolio.
SAIC (SAI): Increased position by 16.38%. Position is now 2.45% of their portfolio.
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS): Increased position by 15.8%. Position is now 1.48% of their portfolio.
XTO Energy (XTO): Increased position by 5.41%. Position is now 8.33% of their portfolio.


Reduced Positions:
CB Richard Ellis (CBG): Reduced their position by 9.62%. Position is now 2.94% of their portfolio.
Illumina (ILMN): Reduced their position by 9.97%. Position is now 2.69% of their portfolio.
Fastenal (FAST): Reduced their position by 12.5%. Position is now 3.78% of their portfolio.
Qualcomm (QCOM): Reduced their position by 13.88%. Position is now 7.26% of their portfolio.
Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM): Reduced their position by 16.4%. Position is now 3.26% of their portfolio.
Monsanto (MON): Reduced their position by 25.82%. Position is now 3.27% of their portfolio.
Mastercard (MA): Reduced their position by 29%. Position is now 2.48% of their portfolio.
Priceline (PCLN): Reduced their position by 30.75%. Position is now 2.34% of their portfolio.
Google (GOOG): Reduced their position by 39.30%. Position is now 7.39% of their portfolio.
Infosys (INFY): Reduced their position by 49.1%. Position is now 2.19% of their portfolio.
Visa (V): Reduced their position by 57.38%. Position is now 1.93% of their portfolio.
Sears Holdings (SHLD) Puts (2nd put position): Reduced their position by 79.73%. Position is now 0.21% of their portfolio.


Removed Positions (Positions Lone Pine sold out of completely):
Apple (AAPL)
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) - 2nd listed position
CME Group (CME)
EMC Corp (EMC)
Nutrisystem (NTRI)
Southwestern Energy (SWN)
SRA International (SRX)


Positions with no change:
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM). Position is 3.26% of their portfolio.
Teradata (TDC). Position is 3.06% of their portfolio.
Eagle Materials Inc (EXP). Position is 1.66% of their portfolio.
Bunge (BG) Puts. Position is 0.85% of their portfolio.
Deltek (PROJ). Position is 0.24% of their portfolio.
New York Times (NYT) Puts. Position is 0.02% of their portfolio.


Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. Sandridge Energy (SD): 11.35% of the portfolio
2. America Movil (AMX): 10.74% of the portfolio
3. XTO Energy (XTO): 8.33% of the portfolio
4. Google (GOOG): 7.39% of the portfolio
5. Qualcomm (QCOM): 7.26% of the portfolio
6. Entergy (ETR): 6.06% of the portfolio (new position)
7. Fastenal (FAST): 3.78% of the portfolio
8. Weatherford Intl (WFT): 3.42% of the portfolio (new position)
9. Lorillard Inc (LO): 3.29% of the portfolio (new position)
10. Monsanto (MON): 3.27% of the portfolio

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Breakdown: Well, it's very evident where Mandel & Lone Pine's poor performance is coming from. As of June 30th, they had massive holdings in natural gas and oil players Sandridge Energy (SD) and XTO Energy (XTO). SD was their top holding by % value and XTO was not far behind as their 3rd largest holding. The selloff in natural gas, oil, and all related stocks has undoubtedly affected Lone Pine in a negative way. The selloff in those names started around July, leaving Mandel a very limited window of opportunity to sell. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait until the next round of 13F's in the coming quarter to find out what Mandel has done with his large natural gas positions. Considering that the filing reports holdings as of June 30th, and the major selloff began in July, we have no idea whether Lone Pine was massively hurt by the selloff, or whether they were one of the parties responsible for the selloff. But, no matter how savvy Mandel may be, there is no way he got through July unscathed. So, that looks to be one of the main areas contributing to the lackluster performance of his Lone Cedar Fund so far in 2008.

Next, I want to highlight that Lone Pine added to their America Movil (AMX) position by 39%, nearly doubling down on their shares. Obviously, Mandel still likes the company and was using the weakness to add to his position. His addition is interesting, considering numerous hedge funds completely removed their AMX position over the past quarter, including his 'Tiger cub' buddy John Griffin over at Blue Ridge Capital. AMX has long been a hedge fund favorite and has been a top 10 holding in many prominent hedge fund portfolios over the past year. But, with the recent developments in AMX over the last few months, many hedge funds have taken action. And, unlike his colleagues, Mandel was buying the shares that other fund managers were selling off. It will be interesting to see how this continues to play out, as the once hedge fund favorite AMX may be falling out of favor with numerous managers. Lone Pine, however, was adding with conviction, making it their portfolio's 2nd largest position.

I would also like to highlight a couple of new positions started by Lone Pine this past quarter. They added Entergy (ETR) in mass, making it their 6th largest holding at 6.06% of their overall portfolio. In the past, I've talked about ETR on the blog as a way to play both the rising demand in electricity as well as the nuclear space in alternative energy. In addition to starting ETR, they started Weatherford (WFT), an equipment and service provider in the oil and natural gas spaces. They brought this position up to the fund's 8th largest holding at 3.42% of their portfolio. Additionally, they started a position in Lorillard (LO), a cigarette manufacturer. They brought this name up to the 9th largest fund holding, at 3.29% of the portfolio. Mandel added ETR, WFT, and LO all with conviction over the past quarter, landing all three as top 10 holdings.

Turning to tech, we see that Lone Pine has sizable positions in hedge fund favorites like Google (GOOG) and Qualcomm (QCOM). However, Lone Pine was selling off some of their tech holdings during the past quarter. They sold 13% of their QCOM position, leaving it as the fund's 5th largest holding. Mandel got aggressive with Google (GOOG) though, selling nearly 40% of his position. Despite the selling, it still remains their 4th largest holding. That just goes to show how large of a position he had in GOOG. Additionally, he sold completely out of Apple (AAPL). Just last quarter, it was his fund's 5th largest holding. Now, he no longer even holds a position.

Lone Pine was also busy selling the payment processors Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V). They sold 30% of their position in MA and 57% of their position in V. You can't really blame them though, as they were sitting on some handsome profits from those positions. We'll keep an eye out to see if they add back to their positions now that MA and V trade at cheaper prices than they did 2 months ago. After all, the payment processors are big hedge fund favorites, having appeared in numerous funds' portfolios.

Overall, its easy to see where Lone Pine might be struggling this year. They've been rewarded with nice gains in some of their tech and payment processing holdings. But, those gains could have been easily nullified by the likely beating their natural gas and oil holdings took. If you are interested in further comparing Lone Pine's holdings, you can check out the analysis I did of their previous 13F here. Lastly, in a recent development, Lone Pine recently filed a 13G with the SEC, disclosing their minority stake in Hansen Natural (HANS), which I wrote about here.

And, you can view their most recent 13F as filed with the SEC here.

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Check back tomorrow for the 13F breakdown of Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital. And, tune in next week as my 13F tracking series continues. Funds I will be covering next week include: Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp, Louis Bacon's Moore Capital Management, Boone Pickens' BP Capital, and Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital.

Hedge Fund Tracking: Blue Ridge Capital's 13F (John A. Griffin)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here).

The 13F breakdowns are really flowing now and if you've missed them, I've already covered Jeffrey Gendell's Tontine Partners here, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital here, and Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital here. Next up, we have one of my personal favorites: Blue Ridge Capital ran by John A. Griffin. Now, Griffin is similar to Steve Mandel at Lone Pine Capital and Lee Ainslie at Maverick Capital in that they all are 'Tiger Cubs' (a.k.a. pupils of Julian Robertson while at Tiger Management). Griffin though, is more well known because he was Julian Robertson's right hand man. So, needless to say, the dude knows his stuff. Blue Ridge seeks absolute returns by investing in companies who dominate their industries and shorting the companies who have fundamental problems. And, right off the bat that presents us with a bit of a problem in terms of analyzing 13F's. 13F's don't show short positions, they show long positions (unless the firm is short through puts, which we *can* see). So, the inherent problem with analyzing Blue Ridge (or any fund for that matter) is that we can't see the other side of their portfolio. But, this is increasingly important for Blue Ridge simply due to Griffin's investment strategy and the fact that his long positions could in essence only represent half of the portfolio. Now, I use that loosely because there's no way for me to know exactly how much of his portfolio is short. But, I do know that both Griffin at Blue Ridge and Lee Ainslie over at Maverick Capital (research on him coming later this week) like to effectively hedge with a balance of both long and short positions (like a TRUE hedge fund... not like some of these crazy funds these days with no true hedging). Here's the thing: they don't do pairs trades, so don't classify it as that. In the past, I remember specifically being told by representatives at Maverick that they don't pairs trade, even though a respective long and short could be in the same sector or sub-sector. So, make that distinction clear. But, we'll work with what we've got (and believe me, it's still a lot of solid info).

Before beginning, I would like to give a special shoutout to Alex Prywes for helping me with the daunting task of analyzing 13F filings. Alex has helped gather and sort through the data of numerous hedge funds (including the one below). Thanks to Alex's help, we can now cover even more funds. And, on that note.... onto the 13F!

The following are Blue Ridge Capital's current holdings as of June 30th 2008, as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The positions in this most recent 13F were compared to last quarter's 13F and here are the changes made to their portfolio:

New Positions:
Anadarko Petroleum (APC): 2,335,000 shares. This position is 4.29% of Blue Ridge's portfolio.
Visa Inc (V): 1,720,000 shares. 3.43% of Blue Ridge's portfolio.
Vulcan materials: 1,500,000 shares. 2.20% of Blue Ridge's portfolio.
Rowan Cos (RDC): 1,800,000 shares. 2.06% of Blue Ridge's portfolio.
Amazon (AMZN): 940,000 shares. 1.69% of Blue Ridge's portfolio.
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP): 650,000 shares. 1.32% of Blue Ridge's portfolio.
Countrywide Financial: 1,433,000 shares. 0.15% of Blue Ridge's portfolio.
Bare Escentuals (BARE): 281,500 shares. 0.13% of Blue Ridge's portfolio.
Nutrisystem (NTRI): 233,000 shares. 0.08% of Blue Ridge's portfolio.


Added to:
Federal National Mortgage (FNM): Increased position by 1104%. Position is now 2.77% of their portfolio.
Greenlight Capital Re Ltd (GLRE): Increased position by 76.5%. Position is now 0.20% of their portfolio.
Wyeth (WYE): Increased position by 62.86%. Position is now 6.71% of their portfolio.
Apple (AAPL): Increased position by 15.65%. Position is now 5.46% of their portfolio.
Grupo Televisa (TV): Increased position by 11.83%. Position is now 4.46% of their portfolio.
Echostar (SATS): Increased position by 9.97%. Position is now 1.61% of their portfolio.
Google (GOOG): Increased position by 6.09%. Position is now 6.75% of their portfolio.
Broadrige Financial (BR): Increased position by 0.84%. Position is now 3.71% of their portfolio.


Reduced Positions:
American Express (AXP): Reduced position by 23.98%. Position is now 6.05% of their portfolio.
Netflix (NFLX): Reduced position by 28.6%. Position is now 0.93% of their portfolio.
Walmart (WMT): Reduced position by 35.75%. Position is now 2.54% of their portfolio.
First Marblehead (FMD): Reduced position by 36.64%. Position is now 0.05% of their portfolio.
Elong Inc (LONG): Reduced position by 51.82%. Position is now 0.02% of their portfolio.
Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacifico (PAC): Reduced position by 54.83%. Position is now 1.16% of their portfolio.
Crocs (CROX): Reduced position by 66.06%. Position is now 0.14% of their portfolio.


Removed Positions (Positions Blue Ridge sold out of completely):
America Movil (AMX)
Burlington Northern (BNI)
Coach (COH)
Corus Bankshares (CORS)
Fidelity National Information (FIS)
First American Corp California (FAF)
Formfactor (FORM)
Office Depot (ODP)
SLM Corp (SLM)
Smurfit Stone Container (SSCC)
St Joe Co (JOE)
Starbucks (SBUX)
WebMD Health (WBMD)


Positions with no change:
Covanta (CVA). Position is 5.27% of their portfolio.
Millipore (MIL). Position is 4.49% of their portfolio.
Charles Schwab (SCHW). Position is 4.32% of their portfolio.
Discovery Holding Co (DISCA). Position is 3.89% of their portfolio.
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM). Position is 3.41% of their portfolio.
Target (TGT). Position is 3.11% of their portfolio.
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO). Position is 2.90% of their portfolio.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). Position is 2.49% of their portfolio.
Fomento Economico Mexicano (FMX). Position is 2.31% of their portfolio.
Packaging Corp of America (PKG). Position is 2.18% of their portfolio.
Compton Petroleum Corp (CMZ). Position is 2.08% of their portfolio.
Research in Motion (RIMM). Position is 1.86% of their portfolio.
Eagle Materials (EXP). Position is 1.22% of their portfolio.
Fairfax Financial Holdings (FFH). Position is 1.18% of their portfolio.
American Express (AXP) Calls. Position is 0.64% of their portfolio.
MBIA (MBI). Position is 0.27% of their portfolio.
Federal Home Loan Mortgage (FRE). Position is 0.20% of their portfolio.
Evergreen Energy (EEE). Position is 0.12% of their portfolio.
Gold Reserve Inc (GRZ). Position is 0.10% of their portfolio.
Washington Mutual (WM) Puts. Position is 0.02% of their portfolio.
Perfect World Co (PWRD). Position is 0.01% of their portfolio.
Indymac Bancorp (IDMC). Position is 0.01% of their portfolio.



Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. Google (GOOG). 6.75% of the portfolio
2. Wyeth (WYE). 6.71% of the portfolio
3. American Express (AXP). 6.05% of the portfolio
4. Apple (AAPL). 5.46% of the portfolio
5. Covanta (CVA). 5.27% of the portfolio
6. Millipore (MIL). 4.49% of the portfolio
7. Grupo Televisa (TV). 4.46% of the portfolio
8. Charles Schwab (SCHW). 4.32% of the portfolio
9. Anadarko Petroleum (APC). 4.29% of the portfolio
10. Discovery Holding Co (DISCA). 3.89% of the portfolio

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Breakdown: First thing I noticed was Blue Ridge's addition of Anadarko Petroleum (APC). They added it in mass, bringing it up to the fund's 9th largest holding. Although I've seen many hedge funds adding this name over the past 2 quarters, do keep in mind that this filing was as of June 30th, 2008. Since then, natural gas prices, oil prices, and pretty much any stock in those sectors have all plummeted. But, it is worth noting that I have seen this name pop up on 13F filings much more frequently recently. And, Blue Ridge did make quite a hefty purchase. We'll have to wait until next quarter to see whether it was a trade or an investment. In the past, when Griffin has brought a position up to a top 10 holding in one quarter, he has held onto the position. So, time to play the waiting game on that one. Also, he added quite a large new position in Visa (V), bringing it up to 3.43% of the portfolio after not even holding a position last go-round (leaving it just shy of being a top 10 holding).

Next, I noticed he was adding more shares of Wyeth (WYE). This name was already a large fund holding, and he added to his position by 62%, bringing it up to the fund's 2nd largest holding. Recently, there has definitiely been a rotation into any and all stocks relating to healthcare. This is no exception. Also worth noting is Griffin's addition to his already large Apple (AAPL) position. He continues to add to this name and appears to be assembling a solid core position over time.

Even though Griffin made some purchases, he was definitely busier on the selling side of things. And, that makes me even more curious than usual as to what short positions he holds. But, because hedge funds are not required to disclose short positions in their 13F filings (except for Put positions), we are left in the dark on that one. But, anyways, onto the sales. Griffin was selling some consumer names in Netflix (NFLX) and Walmart (WMT). He only sold 20-30% of his positions there so it could just be some profit taking or position size reducing... nothing too major going on. We'll keep an eye on it next quarter and see if he continues to sell those names. Two quarters ago, as I detailed in my Blue Ridge analysis here, we saw that Griffin was starting to sell Coach (COH), Formfactor (FORM), and Smurfit Stone (SSCC). This past quarter, he continued that trend, selling off all the remaining shares in those companies. Additionally, he sold off 66% of his Crocs (CROX) position, which I'm sure was a source of pain for him, given how those shares have plummeted in value over time. Next quarter, it will be interesting to see whether or not he sells off the 'cheap consumer' plays such as Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT).

Griffin also completely removed America Movil (AMX) from Blue Ridge's portfolio. This is interesting, as this is the 2nd hedge fund so far we've seen completely sell out of this name. (Remember that AMX used to be one of the most common holdings amongst the various hedge funds I track). The stock has been in a downward spiral for numerous months and it appears that numerous hedge funds were the ones responsible for the exodus. In the coming week, we'll see what Griffin's 'Tiger Cub' buddies were up to with their respective AMX positions as well.

Also worth pointing out is that Griffin quickly sold out of Burlington Northern (BNI) completely. In the last 13F filing, we found out he had just added BNI as a new position. And, this time around, we find out that he has quickly sold out. This struck me as somewhat odd, just because practically all hedge funds I track have some sort of exposure to the rails. Maybe Griffin was just locking in some quick profits, or maybe there was something that turned him away from the name. Interesting move, nonetheless. Griffin also had a short stay in Office Depot (ODP). He sold completely out of his position this past quarter, having only added it as a new position in the last 13F filing.

Lastly, I just wanted to point out some of the larger positions that Blue Ridge continues to hold in their portfolio: Millipore (MIL), Covanta (CVA), Grupo Televisa (TV), and Charles Schwab (SCHW). These positions have been top 10 holdings for Blue Ridge for numerous quarters now and are definitely worth a look as they appear to be longer term plays for Griffin.

Blue Ridge Capital's most interesting/peculiar move(s)? Increasing their stake in Fannie Mae (FNM) by over 1100%, bringing it up to 2.77% of the portfolio. (Keep in mind that these positions were as of June 30th, 2008). I only bring this up due to the recent developments in FNM and FRE. Whether it be for a trade or for an investment, John Griffin was definitely up to something here and we can only speculate as to what he's been doing with this position in the past month and a half.

You can view Blue Ridge Capital's most recent 13F as filed with the SEC here.

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Tune in during the rest of the week as I continue to detail the portfolio changes of some well known hedge funds. Funds I'll be looking at the rest of the week: Maverick Capital (Lee Ainslie), Lone Pine Capital (Steven Mandel), and Atticus Capital (Timothy Barakett).

Hedge Fund Tracking: Clarium Capital's 13F (Peter Thiel)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here).

Next up, we have Clarium Capital. Clarium is a $6 billion global macro hedge fund run by Peter Thiel, the co-founder of PayPal. Although they had a rough July (-6.8%), Clarium is still up over 45% year to date. Assets under management have recently ballooned to the highest amount in Clarium's history. It will be interesting to see how effective Clarium will be at deploying this new capital. And, to those who want a little more background on Thiel & his investment style, I first wrote about him here.

Now, to the 13F. I actually hesitated even doing a 13F analysis on Clarium Capital simply because when I say they are a global macro fund, I really mean it. The 13F they filed with the SEC details only the equities held in their portfolio. And, all their equities combined only totaled a little over $93 million. And, considering they have over $6 billion AUM, we have a bit of a problem here. The bulk of their holdings/trades seem to be in the actual commodities, futures, and currency markets themselves. And, the 13F only details equities held. So, I just wanted to point that out to everyone before proceeding further. I still think its interesting to at least see what they hold. But, take it with a grain of salt because the majority of their capital is deployed in other financial instruments/markets.

The following are Clarium Capital's current holdings as of June 30th 2008, as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. I've compared the positions in this most recent 13F to last quarter's 13F and here are the changes they made to their portfolio:

New Positions: (in no particular order)
Wendy's (WEN) 7,400 shares
Pinnacle Air (PNCL) 15,220 shares
Fairfax Financial (FFH) 15,000 shares
Nvidia (NVDA) 18,000 shares
NRG Energy (NRG) 9,776 shares
MFA Mortgage Investments (MFA) 50,000 shares
Marathon Oil (MRO) 10,000 shares
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) 12,000 shares
ITT Corp (ITT) 35,000 shares
Istar Financial (SFI) 99,800 shares
Honeywell (HON) 17,700 shares
Conoco Phillips (COP) 107,900 shares
Chevron (CVX) 6,000 shares
Canadian Superior Energy (SNG) 500,000 shares
Black and Decker (BDK) 23,437 shares
Altria Group (MO) 52,639 shares
Aircastle (AYR) 23,400 shares


Added to:
Frontier Oil (FTO): Increased their position by 1353%
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Increased their position by 302%
CVS Caremark (CVS): Increased their position by 179%
American Express (AXP): Increased their position by 111%
Colgate Palmolive (CL): Increased their position by 77%
Oneok Inc (OKE): Increased their position by 75%
Sothebys (BID): Increased their position by 60%
Nucor (NUE): Increased their position by 49%
Cabot Oil and Gas COG): Increased their position by 42%
Foster Wheeler (FWLT): Increased their position by 22%
Walmart Stores (WMT): Increased their position by 21%
McDonald's (MCD): Increased their position by 14%
Royal Caribbean (RCL): Increased their position by 11%
Hewlett Packard (HPQ): Increased their position by 3%


Reduced Positions:
Mylan (MYL): Decreased their position by 25%
Procter and Gamble (PG): Decreased their position by 75%


Removed Positions (Positions Clarium sold out of completely):
Zimmer Holdings (ZMH)
Western Refining (WNR)
Viropharma (VPHM)
United Technologies (UTX)
McGraw Hill (MHP)
Lowes (LOW)
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Leggett and Platt (LEG)
Heinz (HNZ)
General Motors (GM)
General Dynamics (GD)
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Anheuser Busch (BUD)


Positions with no change:
Schering Plough (SGP)
Burlington Northern (BNI)


Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. Hewlett Packard (HPQ)
2. Conoco Phillips (COP)
3. American Express (AXP)
4. McDonalds (MCD)
5. Burlington Northern (BNI)
6. Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
7. Fairfax Financial (FFH)
8. Foster Wheeler (FWLT)
9. Royal Caribbean (RCL)
10. Frontier Oil (FTO)

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Breakdown: Clarium's portfolio really looks "plain jane," doesn't it? There's nothing ridiculously exciting going on. It almost reminds me of a portfolio Warren Buffett would put his stamp of approval on. AXP, BNI, COP, and MCD are for the most part just slow and steady names that chug along with consistent returns. Again, this is why I want to reiterate that Clarium takes the majority of their positions in the commodities, futures, or currency markets since they truly are a global macro fund. The equity holdings reported in this SEC filing represent just a small sliver of their assets under management. So, on the equity side of things, Thiel has focused mostly on larger cap names with international exposure.

Clarium is definitely heavily weighted in the energy sector. They brought Conoco Phillips (COP) in as a new holding and bumped it up all the way to their 2nd largest equity position. He was also out adding to his Frontier Oil (FTO) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) positions in a big way. Keep in mind that these holdings were reported as of June 30th, 2008 (ie: Crude Oil hadn't started its rapid descent yet). So, we'll have to see next quarter whether he was building up long term positions in these names, or merely trying to ride the oil wave higher.

Thiel has a large bet on tech, but pretty much solely through Hewlett Packard (HPQ). He added some Nvidia (NVDA), but HPQ is the fund's top equity holding. I can't disagree with this choice, as HPQ has been firing on all cylinders with Mark Hurd really turning the company in the right direction. But, even though the company is performing well, the stock really isn't.

I also noticed that Thiel seems to also be playing the 'pooring of America' theme. His MCD and WMT positions give him exposure to the companies that offer everything on the cheap. But, what surprised me a little bit was his Royal Caribbean (RCL) stake being as large as it is. To me, this translates to a discretionary item since its a cruise/vacation after all. And, with the economy the way it is, you'd think that reservations would be down. But, Thiel obviously sees something here, so it might be worth looking at more in depth.

I also want to point out Thiel's position in American Express (AXP), now his fund's 3rd largest equity position. I'm seeing more and more funds pick up stakes in AXP. For the most part, funds have favored Mastercard (MA) and even Visa (V) for their payment processing business models. Now though, it seems more funds are rotating into AXP to get some credit exposure as well. While I think American Express (AXP) is a well run company and typically has a higher credit grade portfolio, I still question adding this name. The credit exposure will continue to provide headwinds for the company and I'm curious to see what these funds do with this position over time.

Lastly, I just wanted to mention Burlington Northern (BNI). If there is one other common theme amongst hedge fund holdings, it is the rails. No matter how small or large their position, practically everyone has at least some sort of exposure to the rails. For Thiel & Clarium, BNI is their 5th largest equity holding.

You can view Clarium Capital's entire 13F as filed with the SEC here.

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Stay tuned as I continue to detail the portfolio changes of some big name hedge funds. This week I'll be looking at: Lone Pine Capital (Steve Mandel), Maverick Capital (Lee Ainslie), Blue Ridge Capital (John Griffin), and Atticus Capital (Timothy Barakett).

Checking in on George Soros (Soros Fund Management)

The 13F filings from various funds are flying in now and I've been pretty busy sorting through them all. There are certain funds I like to track in depth (analyzing portfolio movements line by line), and others that I just check for major portfolio moves made in the last quarter, to keep tabs on them. Today, I want to touch on the filing by legendary investor George Soros. Let's take a quick glance to see what major moves he made in his portfolio.

George Soros
In Soros Fund Management's most recent 13F filing, Soros bought over an $800 million stake in Brazilian oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR). At the time, this massive purchase represented 22% of his entire portfolio and was his largest holding. And, interestingly enough, PBR is down nearly 30% since his purchase. Guess we'll have to wait til the next round of 13F's (next quarter) to see whether or not he still holds. Soros also made a big Potash (POT) purchase, increasing his position by over 2550% (from 65,500 shares to 1,747,707 shares). In another move, he also purchased over 9 million shares of Lehman Brothers (LEH), roughly a $180 million position at the time. He also made purchases in various commodity plays such as VALE (RIO) and Talisman Energy (TLM). All holdings were current as of June 20th, 2008. You can view Soros' full 13F as filed with the SEC here.

Stay tuned in the coming week, as I will have a steady daily flow of in-depth analysis of the following hedge fund 13F's:

- Blue Ridge Capital (John Griffin)
- Lone Pine Capital (Steve Mandel)
- Maverick Capital (Lee Ainslie)
- Viking Global Investors (Andreas Halvorsen)
- Shumway Capital Management (Chris Shumway)
- Touradji Capital (Paul Touradji)
- Atticus Capital (Timothy Barakett)
- Moore Capital Management (Louis Bacon)
- Tudor Investment Corp (Paul Tudor Jones)
- Harbinger Capital (Phil Falcone)
- Clarium Capital (Peter Thiel)
- Pequot Capital Management (Art Samberg)
- BP Capital (Boone Pickens)

And, I will also be highlighting a few of the major portfolio moves of some other funds who I like to keep tabs on, but don't track in depth. And, if you missed them, I have already detailed the portfolio changes of Tontine Partners (Jeffrey Gendell) here, and Tremblant Capital (Bret Barakett) here.

Farm Real Estate and Cropland Values Soar

In a complete 180 from my post yesterday about the anticipated rise in foreclosures, I want to highlight a real estate market that is actually bullish: farmland. We all knew the agriculture boom was affecting all aspects of the business. But, with charts from Mark J. Perry's blog, we can see just how big of a boom farmers are experiencing. I'll let the pictures do the talking.

Average Farm Real Estate Value

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

Hedge Fund Tracking: Tremblant Capital's 13F (Bret Barakett)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here)

Now we're really starting to see the 13F filings trickle in. Next up, we have Tremblant Capital Group, managed by Bret Barakett. (If his last name sounds familiar, its because his brother, Timothy Barakett, manages fellow macro fund Atticus Capital, whom I also track). Taken from their site, Tremblant Capital Group's objective is "to achieve superior risk adjust returns for our investors through our focused and disciplined investment process." Tremblant is a $4.1 billion hedge fund based in New York and is run by Bret Barakett, who is a former portfolio manager at Moore Capital Management (the hedge fund run by the great Louis Bacon, whom I also track). So, as you can see, despite having a great mind of his own, Barakett has worked with some of the best in the macro game. And, that's why he's worth following.

The following are Tremblant Capital's current holdings as of June 30th 2008, as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. I've compared the positions in this most recent 13F to last quarter's 13F and here are the changes they made to their portfolio:

New Positions: (in no particular order)
Virgin Media (VMED) 528,856 shares
Shenandoah Telecom (SHEN) 184,124 shares
Petrochina (PTR) 7,016 shares
Mastercard (MA) 137,205 shares
Exide Technologies (XIDE) 211,757 shares
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 963,509 shares
China Petroleum and Chemical (SNP) 9,419 shares
Bare Escentuals (BARE) 322,555 shares


Added to:
Centennial Communications Corp (CYCL). Increased their position by 301%
Hologic (HOLX). Increased their position by 250%
Gafisa (GFA). Increased their position by 120%
Union Pacific (UNP). Increased their position by 100%
American Pub Ed Inc (APEI). Increased their position by 76%
Time Warner (TWX). Increased their position by 74%
Focus Media Holdings (FMCN). Increased their position by 56.6%
Nuance Communications (NUAN). Increased their position by 54%
Visa (V). Increased their position by 40%
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). Increased their position by 40%
Anadigics (ANAD). Increased their position by 38%
Mckesson Corp (MCK). Increased their position by 24%
Cogent Communications (CCOI). Increased their position by 15%
Hughes Communications (HUGH). Increased their position by 14%
NYSE Euronext (NYX). Increased their position by 10%
Melco Pbl Entertainment (MPEL). Increased their position by 7%
Walmart (WMT). Increased their position by 5%
Heathextras (HLEX). Increased their position by 3%


Reduced Positions:
LCA Vision (LCAV). Reduced their position by 95%
Research in Motion (RIMM). Reduced their position by 35%
Apple (AAPL). Reduced their position by 29%
ThermoFisher Scientific (TMO). Reduced their position by 28%
Pharmaceutical Prod Dev (PPDI). Reduced their position by 22%
Inverness Med (IMA). Reduced their position by 21%
CVS Caremark (CVS). Reduced their position by 18%
RedHat (RHT). Reduced their position by 15%
Monster Worldwide (MNST). Reduced their position by 11%
Suntech Power (STP). Reduced their position by 11%
Corning (GLW). Reduced their position by 8%
Qualcomm (QCOM). Reduced their position by 6%
Ntelos Holdings (NTLS). Reduced their position by 1.7%
Commscope (CTV). Reduced their position by 1.5%
Paetec Holding (PAET). Reduced their position by 1%
Pharmanet Dev Group (PDGI). Reduced their position by 0.71%


Removed Positions (Positions Tremblant sold out of completely):
Allscripts Healthcare (MDRX)
America Movil (AMX)
Cenveo (CVO)
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)
Costco (COST)
Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR)
Mercadolibre (MELI)
Priceline (PCLN)
UST Inc (UST)


Positions with no change:
Wyeth (WYE)
SXC Health Solutions (SXCI)
Navisite (NAVI)
Eclipsys Corp (ECLP)
CSX Corp (CSX)
Burlington Northern (BNI)
Advanced Med Optics (EYE)


Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. Qualcomm (QCOM)
2. Visa (V)
3. Apple (AAPL)
4. CVS Caremark (CVS)
5. RedHat (RHT)
6. Hologic (HOLX)
7. NYSE Euronext (NYX)
8. Corning (GLW)
9. Research in Motion (RIMM)
10. Baidu (BIDU)


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Breakdown: Tremblant's portfolio is big on tech, and rightly so. From March until June (the period of time that passed between the filing of past & present 13F's), tech was on a rampage. So, for them to be taking some profits in those names seems natural. They cut back their AAPL and RIMM by about a third of a position, which classifies as healthy profit taking from a big move in my book. I wouldn't be surprised to see them adding back at cheaper prices what they sold. Noticeably absent from their tech portfolio is GOOG. They have BIDU instead, and a pretty large position at that (its their 10th largest holding). Hedge fund favorites AAPL, RIMM, & QCOM also make up a large part of Tremblant's portfolio overall. All 3 are top 10 portfolio holdings. What else is new?

Speaking of hedge fund favorites, we notice that MA and V make an appearance, with MA just being added this past quarter. They already had a large V stake and appear to be assembling a MA position to go along with it. Many funds seem to prefer MA to V, but not Tremblant. We'll see next quarter if their MA position catches up in size to the massive stake they have in Visa (their 2nd largest holding).

Interesting to see the Brothers Barakett (Bret at Tremblant and Timothy at Atticus) both in the house of pain with NYX. Tremblant added more this quarter and look to be averaging down again and again. I can't blame them though. NYX is a solid company that 'appears' cheap on valuation. But, in this market, nobody seems to care about that. The exchanges should be perfect plays to bet on a market with increased volatility. But, apparently they are not. Instead, they are downward spiraling deathtraps. One other commonality between the Brothers Barakett portfolios is their affection for the rails. UNP BNI and CSX all appear in Tremblants portfolio. UNP is their largest rail holding currently, as they doubled down on their stake this past quarter.

Overall, technology, communications & media, the rails, and medical plays seem to be the name of the game for Tremblant this time around.

Lastly, just wanted to note that they have abandoned America Movil (AMX). This name has been in a steady downtrend in recent months, and it looks like they gave up on the name. Last quarter and in the past in general, AMX was easily one of the most common holdings among the hedge funds I track. As the 13F's continue to come out, we'll have to see if others joined Tremblant in dumping their shares.

Tremblant Capitals' most interesting move(s)? Beefing up their general media & communications technology holdings. They added a variety of names such as CYCL, CCOI, FMCN, TWX, NUAN,VMED.

You can view Tremblant Capital's 13F as filed with the SEC here.

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Check back in during the coming weeks as I analyze the portfolio changes to numerous big name hedge funds such as Lone Pine Capital (Steve Mandel), Moore Capital Management (Louis Bacon), Tudor Investment Corp (Paul Tudor Jones), Blue Ridge Capital (John Griffin), & many many more.

The Long and Winding Road (of Foreclosures)

Taken from Credit Suisse, we see just how long and winding the path of destruction really is. Adjustable Rate Mortgage Resets will be an ongoing source of pain for many Americans. Americans who signed up for ARM mortgages did so because of the low teaser interest rates they were receiving. And, eventually, these teaser rates revert back to much higher rates. Many Americans will not be able to afford their new mortgage rates sparking yet another round of foreclosures. This is not 'new' news by any means. But, it seems to me that some people have yet to truly grasp just how far from 'safety' we are. Keep in mind that even after these resets take place, it could take many months before the homeowners finally hit rock bottom and have to foreclose. ARM's will continue to reset in mass up until December 2011. Then factor in the many months afterwards that Americans will be defaulting on their new, higher mortgages. Sometimes I feel like I'm a "doom & gloom-er." But, then I take a step back and realize I'm just keeping it real(istic). Fun times ahead here in the United States of Foreclosure.

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Boone Pickens Hedge Fund (BP Capital) Has Rough July

From Reuters:

"The commodity half of oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens's BP Capital hedge fund lost 35 percent of its value in July, the New York Post said, citing sources."

Ouch. Sounds as if old T. Boone needs to spend a little bit less time campaigning for his PickensPlan, and a little more time running his hedge fund. (Okay, maybe that's a little harsh considering he is poised to make big $$$ should his 'Plan' materialize in any way shape or form). Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see what his 13F looks like when he files that here in the next few days. It sounds as if he was pretty stubborn with some natural gas and oil plays though, that's for sure. Considering that commodities took it on the chin in July, and given the fact that his fund is energy-centric, the losses make sense. But, you'd think that someone with as much experience in the energy markets as Boone would be a bit quicker to react/adapt to what was happening.

World GDP Vs. Oil Production

This chart is about as simplistic as it gets. Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz over at The Big Picture for posting up what he aptly calls "A Chart of the Decade." Many of the energy themes I've discussed here before stem from one very basic chart.

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Source: ITF Interim Report on Crude Oil

The U.S. Dollar Going Forward

Courtesy of the Federal Reserve Board we see an interesting chart depicting the decline of the US Dollar as well as its impact on the price of crude oil. Seeing the price of crude oil charted in other currencies really puts into perspective just how much the weak dollar has helped commodities. Sure, much of the commodity story has been fundamentally driven. But, the dollar has undoubtedly played a role in the rise of commodities.

The question I pose now is: Where is the Dollar heading longer term? Shorting the US Dollar became a crowded trade very quickly. And, with the right set of catalysts (as we've seen recently), the Dollar can indeed rally. But, is this rally really a turn-around, or rather just a counter-trend rally. The fed seems poised to raise rates in their coming meetings. The ECB seems concerned with growth rather than inflation currently. Both point to a bullish future for the Dollar. But, I still have to believe that this is merely a counter-trend rally within a longer term downtrend.

Much damage has been done to the dollar over the years. Just look at the chart, it speaks volumes. From 2002 until present, the dollar has really done nothing but decline in value. Sure, there are some rallies here and there. But, they are very short lived. It rallies up to the downward sloping trendline only to decline yet again. The only time where the dollar really held its own was during the years 2005 and 2006. During these years the dollar traded sideways for the most part. And, I think we are setting up for the Dollar to trade sideways for a longer period of time. While we cannot predict the future, we do know that the Fed can only do so much with their rate increases. What happens after they are done with their cycle? We'll obviously have to address this as the currency market continues to unfold. While I think the dollar can (and probably will) see a substantial rally in the coming months, I still believe it is just a reversion to the mean within the context of the broader picture. After the rally secedes, we could very well see a period of stagnation.