Howard Marks' Cautionary New Memo on Cycles: "There They Go Again... Again" ~ market folly

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Howard Marks' Cautionary New Memo on Cycles: "There They Go Again... Again"

Oaktree Capital Chairman Howard Marks is out with a new memo.  It's entitled "There They Go Again... Again."  He notes that, "Some of the memos I'm happiest about having written came at times when bullish trends went too far, risk aversion disappeared and bubbles inflated."  He feels that it's time again for a cautionary memo.

His latest writings delve into the topics of cycles and what seeds are needed for the foundation of a bull market, boom or bubble.  He outlines how investors gradually shift from a benign environment, to one with more money than ideas, to suspension of disbelief, to rejection of valuation norms, to eventually the almighty "fear of missing out."

While Marks says many of the ingredients are in play today, a few usual ingredients are notably missing.  He also writes that, "Most people can't think of what might cause trouble anytime soon.  But it's precisely when people can't see what it is that could make things turn down that risk is highest, since they tend not to price in risks they can't see."

This is an excellent memo and worth reading in its entirety.

Embedded below is Oaktree Capital and Howard Marks' new memo: There They Go Again... Again:

You can download a .pdf copy here.

For more letters from prominent investors, we've recently posted Third Point's Q2 letter and Greenlight Capital's Q2 letter.

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