Lee Cooperman Starts 2 New Stakes, Adds To 4 Positions, Trims Another

Omega Advisors' Lee Cooperman filed a myriad of amended 13G's with the SEC recently.  Here's the breakdown:


Starts 2 New Positions: Aspen Group & Arbor Realty Trust

The hedge fund manager has revealed newly bought stakes in two companies: Aspen Group (ASPU), an online education company, and Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a specialized real estate finance company.  Both positions were disclosed due to activity on December 31st, 2014.

Cooperman now owns 7.11% of Aspen Group with 8 million shares and owns 7.53% of Arbor Realty Trust with over 3.77 million shares.


Adds to Altisource Portfolio Solutions, Calls Out Management

Also, Cooperman has filed a 13G, Form 3, and multiple Form 4's with the SEC regarding Altisource Portfolio Solutions (ASPS).  He disclosed an ownership stake of 11.14% of the company with over 2.25 million shares as of December 31st, 2014.  This means he's increased his position by almost a million shares since the end of the third quarter.

The Form 4 indicates that Cooperman bought ASPS shares at weighted average prices of $47.47 and $39.42 on December 19th and 22nd, respectively.

Shares of ASPS currently trade around $22 after the company has been hit with regulatory scrutiny as the New York Department of Financial Services (DFS) came down hard on ASPS's biggest customer, Ocwen Financial (OCN), and in turn ASPS as well.  Both companies were part of Bill Erbey's empire and as part of the settlement with the DFS, Erbey will step down from his posts at both companies.

Cooperman also recently appeared on a company conference call and lashed out at management for poor capital allocation decisions, asking "what I'm trying to figure out to be honest with you ... whether your testicles are bigger than your brains or your brains are bigger than your testicles."

The company bought back a ton of stock at much higher prices (around $104 per share) during the period of regulatory scrutiny, only to see their shares plummet much further down to current levels of around $22. 

Numerous hedge funds have been involved in ASPS and OCN shares and it will be interesting to see who held on through the carnage, who exited, and who might have picked up shares as a distressed play at the end of 2014.  Unfortunately, it will be another 3 weeks until those disclosures (Q4 13F filings) are submitted to the SEC.

At the end of the third quarter, the largest holders of ASPS were Luxor Capital, Omega Advisors, White Elm Capital, among others.  Top OCN holders included Pennant Capital, Highfields Capital, Baupost Group, Kingstown Capital, Own Creek Asset Management, White Elm Capital, among others.  Since the end of the third quarter, OCN is down 72% and ASPS is down 78%.


Adds to Atlas Energy & Atlas Pipeline Stakes

Next, the Omega Advisors founder has been out buying shares of Atlas Energy (ATLS).  Per the 13G filing, Cooperman now owns over 7 million shares (an increase of over 2.9 million shares since the end of the third quarter).

Additionally, he has also increased his exposure to Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL) and now owns over 7.45 million shares (compared to the 3.34 million he owned at the end of the third quarter).


Increases Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust Exposure

Next, Cooperman has disclosed an increased position in Gulf Coast Ultra Deep Royalty Trust Units (GULTU).  He previously owned 16.9 million shares but now owns 22.22 million, an increase of over 5.3 million shares since the end of the third quarter.


Slightly Trims Chimera Investment Corp Stake

Lastly, Cooperman disclosed in another 13G that he has ever-so-slightly reduced his stake in Chimera Investment Corp (CIM) by a minor 168,645 shares.  He still retained a position of over 64.3 million shares at the end of 2014.

For more of Cooperman's recent portfolio activity, head here.

Lee Cooperman's Value Investing Congress Presentation: Are Equities Still the Best House in the Neighborhood?

We're posting up notes from the 2014 Value Investing Congress in New York. Next up is Lee Cooperman of Omega Advisors who presented: Are equities still the best house in the financial asset neighborhood?


Lee Cooperman's Value Investing Congress Presentation

• Market is fully / fairly valued. There is time and price left in us equity bull market and a respectable  S&P return expected in 12-18 months. Repeated the caveat that a geopolitical event could upend this prediction

• “Bear markets are born in despair, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, die on euphoria.” ‘08/’09 was deep pessimism, have seen skepticism lately but we are near the end of that  now. Sees few signs of euphoria

• Nearly all us fixed income securities w/ exception of structured credit are uninteresting and   unattractive. This includes treasuries, investment grade corporates, HY bonds and soverign debt

• Equity markets in Europe and Japan should deliver respectable returns over coming year, could   outperform us as they are further behind in business cycle. Japanese valuations are attractive   because they have a comparable dividend yield but sell at 13.6x P/E vs. 16.8x P/E in US

• Dollar should be a strong currency over coming year

• Looking at average cycles:
o Bear market of ‘09 was 2x the average bear market, down -57% vs. -26% average. Also lasted 17 months vs. 13 month average
o Recession duration also prolonged and deeper than average. The average recession is characterized by -2% GDP and lasts 10 months.  In the '09 recession, GDP declined -4.3% and lasted 18 months
o Average recovery lasts 60 months and we are on slight overtime at 63 months today. 
o Market peaks about 7 months prior to economic peak. Thinks we don't have recession in 2015 so doesn't see a market peak today
o Cooperman thinks this recovery has the potential to exceed the average because so many companies were operating below potential

• Reason for caution:
o Seeing a lot of capitulation from the permabears, now hearing 3,000 S&P predictions from holdouts.  People waking up and getting bullish now are making a mistake
o Getting a little nervous that so many people who couldn’t see the positive outlook a few years ago now see such good opportunity
o Reiterated geopolitical risk multiple times
o Very concerned about income disparity in the economy. 75mm youth around the world are unemployed.  In the '40s an average factory worker made 1/30th of a CEO, now 1/900th
o Next crisis will be in public sector fundings. US government has $17tn debt with an average maturity < 4 years.  Meanwhile corporates have high liquidity and the banking sector is so highly regulated these days that a crisis probably won't come from them
o Another risk: recession/deflation in Eurozone or US
o Stocks also aren't really cheap – showed Buffett’s favorite stock valuation chart

• Regarding rising rates:  o If Fed doesn't raise rates, we have a problem in the stock market. If cash belongs at 0% and govt belongs at 4%, you shouldn't be making 15% in the stock market.  Rising rates should be indicative of an improving economy
o 1958 was the year of yield reversal when equities started yielding less in dividend yield compared to treasuries.  Now over 25% of S&P 500 non-financials yield more than 10yr note
o Relative to alternatives, equities still better. Fixed incomes just not attractive


Longs:  

• GARP: Actavis (ACT), Citigroup (C), Thermo Fisher (TMO)
• Income growth: Atlas (ATLS), Gaming & Leisure Properties (GLPI), KKR (KKR), Nordic American Offshore (NAO) 
• Asset restructuring: QEP Resources (QEP), Supervalu (SVU)
• High risk/high return: Altisource Portfolio Solutions (ASPS), Louis XIII (577 Hk), Monitise (MONLLN), Sandridge Energy (SD).

Cooperman's pick of ASPS was analyzed in the May issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter if you want to play catch up on the name quickly.



Be sure to check out the rest of the Value Investing Congress presentations here.

Lee Cooperman's 4 Long Ideas at Invest For Kids Chicago

Next up in our notes from Invest For Kids Chicago 2013 is Lee Cooperman of Omega Advisors.  He pitched four long ideas and gave his outlook on equities in general.


Lee Cooperman's 4 Long Ideas at Invest For Kids Chicago

•    Equities still best house in neighborhood but not as solid as 2011
•    Sallie Mae worth $32
•    Market in zone of fair valuation
•    All about multiple you assume for the market
•    15 to 16 multiple is fair so market reasonable fully valued
•    Series of numbers – S&P up 23% jumps out at investors
•    Close to 3 multiple expansion the last few years
•    Bull markets don’t die from old age they die from recessions
•    Bonds overvalued & people in process of going out risk curve
•    Stock very cheap relative to fixed income
•    1 to 3% inflation then 16ish multiple makes sense
•    HY index at 6% versus 25%
•    HY has no great fascination at the present time
•    1958 yield revered – bonds versus stock – quarter of S&P 500 now yield more than (government) bonds
•    Wouldn’t be surprised to see the 10 year bond at 5%
•    Bull markets end at overvaluation; 2nd phase of bull market - rising earnings rising dividends (currently late here); 3rd & final: exuberance/excess.  (We've posted Cooperman's 3 stages of a bull market before if you missed it)

•    Negative if (1) recession (2) valuation at danger zone – if go up 10% then we would be at this place (3) growth less than 1% or more than 3% (fed tapering),
•    Doesn’t believe PEs are materially higher – profit margins cyclical


•    Idea #1: Atlas Energy MLOP (ATLS)
o    “More of everything – dividend of 2x S&P.
o    Trading way below sum of the parts o    On top of 2 other publically traded MLPs
o    Thinks it’s worth $60
o    Cheap relative to comps
o    No CapEx and lots of FCF


•    Idea #2: Monitise (London), a position we've highlighted on the site numerous times before
o    1.5 billion dollar market cap
o    Mobile wallet – software on phone that enables online bill pay
o    Blessing of Visa Europe & options of 20% of company
o    “Central to Visa Europe’s philosophy”


•    Idea #3: Sandridge Energy (SD)
o    “Bit of a turnaround”
o    Omega believes NAV is $10 per share


•    Idea #4: Sprint  (S)
o    Biggest position in history of firm at $2.
o    Still cheap now 
o    EV to sales and EV to paid sub is paid sub
For an in-depth look, we previously posted Omega's thesis on Sprint Nextel from their Q2 letter this year


Check out the rest of the hedge fund presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago here.