What We're Reading ~ 4/26/17

The downside of managing downside risk [Morningstar]

A short guide to short selling [Dead Companies Walking]

James Montier: market fair value is 50% lower [Finanz und Wirtschaft]

On the many price fluctuations items see on online shopping [The Atlantic]

4 things that set successful CEOs apart [Harvard Business Review]

Using Eisenhower boxes to improve productivity [Quartz]

3 ways to build a culture of better decisions [CFA Institute]

Against all odds, the US tobacco industry is rolling in money [WSJ]

Refuting the short thesis on Apple [Bireme Capital]

Sprint said to look beyond T-Mobile for other deal options [Bloomberg]

Losses are the new black [L2 inc]

The unique advantage of equity investment [Fundsmith]

Profile of the founder of Chobani [CBS]

Millennials and credit: are we missing the real story? [FICO]

On being special in investing [Reaction Wheel]

What separates champions from 'almost champions?' [NYMag]

What We're Reading ~ 8/12/15

Avoiding process drift [A Wealth of Common Sense]

GOOG: Do you trust Larry Page? [Stratechery]

Giving Google room to dream big [NYTimes]

Pichai tapped to run restructured Google within Alphabet [Bloomberg]

Inside SoftBank's struggle to turn around Sprint [WSJ]

A short seller's new target: Canadian housing [Globe and Mail]

Quick pitch on Nationstar (NSM) [Oozing Alpha]

A look at Mondelez [Brooklyn Investor]

And another Mondelez analysis [Elevation Capital]

How baseball's tech team built the future of television [TheVerge]

Ad woes pummel TV firms [WSJ]

Why Disney and ESPN will be OK [Stratechery]

Alan Greenspan sees pending bond market bubble [Bloomberg]

Investors find ways to indirectly profit from start-ups [NYTimes]

IACI: Tinder and the dawn of the dating apocalypse [Vanity Fair]

Why streaming services are so secretive [Bloomberg View]

A profile of Exor's John Elkann [NYTimes]

The power of admitting your own errors [WSJ]

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 8/7/14

The World's 99 Greatest Investors: The Secret of Success [Magnus Angenfelt]

Interview with Michael Mauboussin [Bloomberg]

On finding large gaps between price and value [Base Hit Investing]

In search of the world's best investment advice [AFR]

A look at Lancashire Holdings [WertArt Capital]

Is TJ Maxx the best retail store in the land? [Fortune]

Shoppers are fleeing physical stores for the web [WSJ]

Does Valeant's cost cutting go too far? [Pro Publica]

How AMC Networks could benefit from the urge to merge in TV [QZ]

Sprint drops bid to buy T-Mobile after regulatory resistance [Reuters]

Dish chairman says bid for T-Mobile possible now that Sprint backs off [Reuters]

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 3/26/14

You need an investing system [Oddball Stocks]

On DirecTV and the future of TV/cable/internet and discussion in comments [BrooklynInvestor]

Margin by any other name [Abnormal Returns]

In investing, know the why [Micro Fundy]

New investing strategy: talk your book [Bloomberg View]

Going beyond fundamentals to make fundamental investing work [Institutional Investor]

Google's Larry Page interviewed by Charlie Rose [AVC]

On the cost of cash [Tufts]

On Tencent vs Alibaba [Tech in Asia]

On Masayoshi Son's Sprint turnaround [WSJ]

Debt crisis nears tipping point [Salon]

Can the Bloomberg terminal be toppled? [Term Sheet]

Slumping fertility rates in developing countries spark labor worries [WSJ]

The search for the next platform [AVC]

Echoes of 2000? Companies rush to list shares while the market is hot [WSJ]

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 2/5/13

M&A world: stacks of corporate cash looking for deals [All About Alpha]

Taking money off the table to diversify emotionally [Abnormal Returns]

Looking at annual trends in shareholder activism [Activist Insight]

Observations of individual stock returns 1983-2006 [Longboard]

Time Warner breaks out HBO results [Barrons]

Will Valeant overdose on acquisitions? [Herb Greenberg]

FCC chief tells Sprint chair he is skeptical of T-Mobile deal [Reuters]

Cable TV mogul looks to add Formula 1 to sports bag [NYPost]

Taking a look at Kinder Morgan [Glenn Chan]

Did Google really lose on its original Motorola deal? [Dealbook]

Nestle looking at selling even more assets? [Reuters]

Top destinations for foreign investment dollars [Business Insider]

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 1/29/13

On position sizing in long/short equity hedge funds [Aleph Blog]

Report on measuring a company's moat [Credit Suisse]

How to read a 10-K like Warren Buffett [CNBC]

The myth of maximizing shareholder value [Naked Capitalism]

The second most expensive stock market in the world [John Mauldin]

A look at Post Holdings [Brooklyn Investor]

Dow Chemical is no bargain [Capital Observer]

A long pitch on SSD makers [Minyanville]

Sprint met with US government re: possible T-Mobile deal, Justice Dept skeptical [WSJ]

How Vietnam became a coffee giant [BBC]

5 takeaways from the emerging markets rout of 2014 [WSJ]

Visa Europe says end of physical currency a 'reality' [Telegraph]

Apple making a move into mobile payments? [WSJ]

Google and Samsung reach global patent license deal [GigaOm]

Jamie Dinan Likes Airlines, Hertz & Sprint/T-Mobile: Interview

York Capital's James Dinan appeared on CNBC today and talked about his latest market views.

He said they own most of the major airlines and notes these companies are now being run like businesses and can make money even at $95 oil.

He specifically mentioned American Airlines (AAL) and thinks there's great optionality here as they've merged with US Air and will have a great management team.  While some of these mergers can be rocky at the start, he thinks the value will be realized.  This has been a big hedge fund trade as of late with the likes of David Tepper and Julian Robertson also being involved in many of these names.

Dinan's biggest position is Hertz (HTZ) and he says it's a consolidation play as they'll see cost savings and revenue synergies from the Dollar Thrifty merger as well as fleet rationalization.  A few quarters ago, our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter flagged this popular trade and posted a write-up on Avis Budget (CAR), another beneficiary of the consolidation.

York thinks that this environment is great for event-driven investing, especially due to low interest rates.  Dinan also sees earnings going up next year and thinks companies will continue to do buybacks.  He also said he likes Sprint (S) and T-Mobile (TMUS).


Here are the videos of Dinan's appearance:

Video 1


Video 2


Video 3


Video 4

Lee Cooperman Likes SunEdison & Sandridge, Sees Market as Fairly Valued

Lee Cooperman, founder of Omega Advisors, appeared on CNBC today to talk about some of his favorite positions and market thoughts.

He continues to feel the market is fairly valued, around 16x earnings.  He pointed out that bull markets end from excesses.  That said, he also notes that investors are "underinvested" in equities, mainly due to fallout from the beatdown they received in 2008 as they've been reticent to get back in stocks.  He thinks the S&P will trade in a range of 1,600 to 2,000.

Some of his favorite picks include SandRidge Energy (SD), Sprint (S), Monitise (MONI.L), Qualicorp.  A new name for them is Sunedison (SUNE), a solar energy play that's spinning off its money-losing semiconductor business.  Cooperman feels it can see $20.  He also thinks SD has the potential to double and points out that TPG-Axon has been involved in this one pushing for change.

Lee Cooperman Video 1:



Lee Cooperman Video 2:



We've highlighted some other portfolio activity from Cooperman here.

Lee Cooperman's 4 Long Ideas at Invest For Kids Chicago

Next up in our notes from Invest For Kids Chicago 2013 is Lee Cooperman of Omega Advisors.  He pitched four long ideas and gave his outlook on equities in general.


Lee Cooperman's 4 Long Ideas at Invest For Kids Chicago

•    Equities still best house in neighborhood but not as solid as 2011
•    Sallie Mae worth $32
•    Market in zone of fair valuation
•    All about multiple you assume for the market
•    15 to 16 multiple is fair so market reasonable fully valued
•    Series of numbers – S&P up 23% jumps out at investors
•    Close to 3 multiple expansion the last few years
•    Bull markets don’t die from old age they die from recessions
•    Bonds overvalued & people in process of going out risk curve
•    Stock very cheap relative to fixed income
•    1 to 3% inflation then 16ish multiple makes sense
•    HY index at 6% versus 25%
•    HY has no great fascination at the present time
•    1958 yield revered – bonds versus stock – quarter of S&P 500 now yield more than (government) bonds
•    Wouldn’t be surprised to see the 10 year bond at 5%
•    Bull markets end at overvaluation; 2nd phase of bull market - rising earnings rising dividends (currently late here); 3rd & final: exuberance/excess.  (We've posted Cooperman's 3 stages of a bull market before if you missed it)

•    Negative if (1) recession (2) valuation at danger zone – if go up 10% then we would be at this place (3) growth less than 1% or more than 3% (fed tapering),
•    Doesn’t believe PEs are materially higher – profit margins cyclical


•    Idea #1: Atlas Energy MLOP (ATLS)
o    “More of everything – dividend of 2x S&P.
o    Trading way below sum of the parts o    On top of 2 other publically traded MLPs
o    Thinks it’s worth $60
o    Cheap relative to comps
o    No CapEx and lots of FCF


•    Idea #2: Monitise (London), a position we've highlighted on the site numerous times before
o    1.5 billion dollar market cap
o    Mobile wallet – software on phone that enables online bill pay
o    Blessing of Visa Europe & options of 20% of company
o    “Central to Visa Europe’s philosophy”


•    Idea #3: Sandridge Energy (SD)
o    “Bit of a turnaround”
o    Omega believes NAV is $10 per share


•    Idea #4: Sprint  (S)
o    Biggest position in history of firm at $2.
o    Still cheap now 
o    EV to sales and EV to paid sub is paid sub
For an in-depth look, we previously posted Omega's thesis on Sprint Nextel from their Q2 letter this year


Check out the rest of the hedge fund presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago here.

Lee Cooperman on 3 Stages of a Bull Market: Interview

Omega Advisors' Lee Cooperman spoke with CNBC this morning.  He thinks markets are fairly valued and he thinks a 15-16x multiple is about right.  He doesn't think it's a bargain anymore.

Cooperman on the 3 Stages of a Bull Market

Phase 1: "Wow we survived."  As the market bottoms and pessimism slowly starts to fade.
Phase 2: "Reflecting that which is perspective."  4-5 years of rising economic activity.
Phase 3: "Exuberance phase, the silliness phase where people forget about the mistakes."  He doesn't think we're quite there yet, but there are pockets of silly valuation like Potbelly (PBPB) and Telsa (TSLA).


His Stock Picks Now

"What we're looking for is to find more growth at a lower valuation."  He said he's looking at 'red chips' instead of 'blue chip' stocks and specifically touched on Sprint Nextel (S).   He also likes Motorola Solutions (MSI), Swatch Group (UHR), Sandridge Energy (SD), and Qualcomm (QCOM).

Embedded below are the videos of Cooperman's interview:


Video 1 on bull market stages


Video 2 on Sprint (S)


Video 3


Video 4 on Qualcomm (QCOM)


For more hedge fund thoughts, we also posted up David Tepper's interview from today.

Omega Advisors' Thesis on Sprint Nextel (S): Q2 Letter

Lee Cooperman's hedge fund firm Omega Advisors is out with their Q2 letter and in it they detail their thoughts on Sprint Nextel (S), their largest position at the end of the second quarter:


Omega's Thesis on Sprint Nextel

They knew that a lot of their position would be tendered to Softbank, but they still thought shares in the 'New Sprint' were attractive so they bought shares even after the quarter.

Omega writes, "We continue to like Sprint for three reasons. First, we continue to see the same meaningful margin expansion  opportunity that attracted us to the company for our initial investment, with the added benefit that the Softbank  merger should accelerate the pace of margin expansion and likely results in a higher terminal margin. Second,  during the course of the bidding process we had the opportunity to engage with Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son.  His track record speaks for itself. We found Mr. Son to be engaging and forthright, and believe that the  opportunity to be his partner as he creates value for Softbank through Sprint is highly attractive. Third, with  the acquisition of Clearwire, Sprint possesses unique spectrum assets which completely change the economics  of the business. Old Sprint operated on 35 Mhz of spectrum versus AT&T and Verizon at approximately 110  Mhz. Spectrum is the raw material for wireless, and a spectrum deficit resulted in structurally lower margins and lower returns on capital. However, Sprint has now shut the Nextel network and will repurpose approximately 14 Mhz of low frequency spectrum for the Sprint network.  Additionally, Clearwire is able to  operate on a single bandwidth in excess of 130 Mhz on average, including approximately 160 Mhz in the top  100 markets where capacity constraints are most likely to emerge. By virtue of having a significantly fatter  pipe than its competitors, Sprint should achieve both better network performance and much higher returns on  incremental capital going forward. It is true that the capital expenditures will be large over the next 24 months  but with dramatically higher returns on incremental capital, we think Sprint will emerge as a share gainer with  an attractive financial profile."

They feel that if their thesis is wrong, it's due to the US wireless industry itself not being able to support 4 major carriers.  In such a case where T-Mobile and Sprint can't produce solid returns, then the likelihood of a merger between the 3rd and 4th largest players wouldn't be frowned upon (which provides downside protection).


Cooperman Likes Thermo Fisher Too

It's also worth highlighting that Omega also really likes Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) as they see end markets likely to accelerate.  They see mid-to-high teens EPS growth for the company due to a combination of margin expansion, accretion from the Life Technologies (LIFE) deal, and deleveraging.

Shares of TMO have seen a lot of interest from other major hedge funds as well.  As we pointed out from Viking Global's Q2 letter, they started a stake in TMO in Q2.  And then Larry Robbins' Glenview Capital also holds TMO as its largest position.


For more on Lee Cooperman's firm, head to Omega's thesis on Covidien & Sirius XM Radio.

Lee Cooperman Says Market Fairly Valued, Talks Stocks He's Been Buying (Interview)

Lee Cooperman of hedge fund firm Omega Advisors made an appearance on CNBC today to talk about what he's been buying and what his portfolio looks like.

Cooperman thinks the market is fairly valued right now and that the "Fed will have to remain friendly." He thinks the rest of the year will be determined by which valuation camp wins out.

He thinks a radical change in Fed policy or a recession would cause a drop in the market, but he's not terribly worried about either of those scenarios.

At the same time, he points out how many investors have de-risked drastically and are underinvested.  He says, "what the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end."


Stocks Cooperman Likes

Cooperman mentioned Thomas H Lee Credit (TCRD), a mezzanine lender that yields over 9% and he thinks the dividend goes higher.

We recently posted up excerpts from Omega's Q1 letter if you missed it where he talks about some of his other stock picks.

He likes to buy MLP's when they're trading below net asset value and especially if he can get a decent yield.  He thinks Linn Energy (LINE) has assets worth "in the area of 40."

Cooperman has also sued Tetragon Financial and he believes management should be barred from the industry due to 6 years of bad governance in his opinion and possibly unlawful acts.  He still thinks the stock is undervalued (he owns 14 million shares of it and he started buying in 2009 back during the financial crisis).  In sum, he feels it's solely a management problem.

The Omega Advisors man also talked about Sprint (S), saying he bought it at $2 and then again at $7 and likes that there were 2 interested parties in the company (Softbank and Dish Network), but it looks like.  He said he'll tender 80% of his position, but if it trades at the right price, he'll get back into that chunk of his position.

Cooperman has owned Dish (DISH) for six years and he said it's a mature business and he thinks it'd be worth more with Sprint than without it.  He likes management there.

The hedge fund manager noted that he's "very bottom-up" and some things Omega has been buying recently include Express Scripts (ESRX), Halliburton (HAL), Transocean (RIG), Qualcomm (QCOM), Motorola Solutions (MSI). Sandridge (SD), and Chimera (CIM).


Embedded below is the video of Cooperman's 18-minute interview:



For more on this manager, check out Lee Cooperman's thesis on Covidien (COV) and Sirius XM Radio (SIRI).

What We're Reading ~ Analytical Links 4/17/13

A new site aggregating conference call transcripts [ConferenceCallTranscripts.org]

Intel (INTC): Anatomy of a tech value trap [Reformed Broker]

Why equity long/short investing is not dead [HFIntelligence]

Sticking to a plan in the face of emotional volatility [Abnormal Returns]

Rare interview with Liberty Media's (LMCA) John Malone [CNBC]

Jeremy Grantham on how to play resource scarcity [Advisor.ca]

Aereo has TV networks circling the wagons [NYTimes]

The death of value investing [Business Insider]

Thermo Fisher (TMO) nears deal for Life Technologies (LIFE) [Reuters]

On Dish Network's (DISH) bid for Sprint Nextel (S) [Bloomberg]

Interview with Markel's (MKL) Tom Gayner [GuruFocus]

Diabetes in Mexico: eating themselves to death [The Economist]

Top 5 websites capturing larger share of real estate traffic [Inman]

As big investors emerge, Bitcoin gets ready for close-up [Dealbook]

Lee Cooperman's Macro View & Thesis on McMoran Exploration, Sprint Nextel & Tetragon Financial

We're posting up notes from the Great Investors' Best Ideas Investment Symposium in Dallas and next up is Lee Cooperman of Omega Advisors.  He talked about his overall macro view and then drilled down on three stock picks.


Cooperman's Macro Takeaways

He says he's been optimistic the last three years, but is indifferent about markets now.  He thinks we'll see slow growth and no recession (a 1 in 5 chance it happens).  He points to the ECB succeeding in kicking the can down the road and China avoiding a hard landing as keys going forward.

Cooperman argued that the Fed has created an environment that's best for equities.  Valuation is attractive when you compare it historically, though he later said that the valuation for the market now is "about right."  He says investors have de-risked and many managers are running low exposure.  Therefore, the max-pain trade is a move higher.

He believes that a peak in corporate profits in this business cycle is coming and that the fiscal cliff is a formidable issue for the market.  While the economy is not great, we need to see a bigger dent in unemployment.  We recently posted up another great presentation from Cooperman on hedge funds and life.

The Omega founder singled out high yield bonds as they yielded 20%+ in the crisis and now that yield is down to 6%.  There's been a dramatic re-pricing in high yield, but not so much in equities.  He again pointed out his disdain toward US government bonds, pointing out a contrarian signal that pensions have their third lowest equity exposure since 1997.

He thinks that investors will sell investments before the tax rates go up.  As far as the election goes, he's also pro-Romney.


Cooperman's 3 Stock Picks


1.  McMoran Exploration (MMR): He really loves the leadership of this company and thinks they're poised to do great things with their wells.  Currently trading at just over $11.75, he thinks the stock is worth $33 and points to Chevron and Freeport McMoran also being involved in their projects.


2.  Sprint Nextel (S):  He talked about how Softbank is putting $8 billion into the company and thinks the stub is worth $3.67 at 3x EBITDA.  He says the company is growing better than people give them credit for and many investors gloss over the name due to the poor Nextel deal.  Cooperman also pointed out past success by Softbank with telecom in Japan and Vodafone, noting vast improvement post-involvement of Softbank.  In 12-18 months, he thinks S is worth $6.50.


3.  Tetragon Financial (TFG):  He labeled this company as "too complicated" and blasted management at the beginning of his pitch, but then still managed to make the case for the company.  He said that you "go to bed with dogs, you wake up with fleas" and pointed out that the company hasn't had a conference call for 5 years so it's tough to get questions answered.

We're pretty sure he said his cost basis is around 2-3 in the name.  He pointed out the company's 20% return on equity, a book value of between 14-25 and the fact that a large portion of the company's market cap is in cash and it trades at a big discount to book.  It's also worthwhile that Cooperman has also held a longstanding position in similar company KKR Financial (KFN).


Perhaps the most telling statement from Cooperman was that he's sitting on a lot of cash now because there's a lot that can happen in the coming months.


For the rest of the presentations, head to notes from the Great Investors' Best Ideas conference.

Larry Robbins' Glenview Capital Buys Clearwire (CLWR): Investment Thesis

Larry Robbins' hedge fund firm Glenview Capital just filed a 13G with the SEC regarding shares of Clearwire (CLWR). Due to portfolio activity on July 28th, Glenview has disclosed a 6.53% ownership stake in CLWR with 16,228,264 shares.

This activity marks a 76.5% increase in their position size since the end of the first quarter. So while they were buying as recently as the end of July, the crazy market volatility that has followed in August makes it hard to know if they've battened down the hatches and held onto these recently acquired shares, or if they instead chose to reduce risk. We've also detailed how Glenview bought Flextronics (FLEX) as well.

Glenview's Thesis on Clearwire

Glenview's previous letter outlined their thesis on Clearwire (CLWR) as they own equity and debt. The company owns 45 billion MHz of wireless spectrum and was the first true '4G' wireless network. They like CLWR under the notion that capex was behind the company ($20 billion) and growth was ahead. The stock currently trades around $1.52.

Robbins goes on to say that the main backdrop for investing in CLWR is that, "over the next four years, mobile traffic growth is expected to increase 40 times, driven by increased video usage and data plans on PCs/tablets/smartphones ... The appeal of Clearwire is therefore simple; Clearwire has aggregated an unmatched amount and a sufficient quality of spectrum to be a viable 4G offering for a wireless carrier."

The hedge fund likes Clearwire because: "a) there is significant downside support from asset value, b) the investment to build those assets is substantially behind them, and c) the wireless industry is at an inflection point in terms of demand for these assets."

Another bit worth noting: CLWR is owned mainly by strategic investors (~84%), primarily by Sprint (S). Glenview hypothesizes that should the AT&T (T) and T-Mobile merger be approved, Sprint could compete by moving to purchase the rest of Clearwire. Either way, Glenview likes the risk/reward of CLWR.

To see the rest of Glenview's investments, be sure to subscribe to our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter, as a new issue will be released in the next two weeks that updates top hedge fund portfolios.

Curtis Macnguyen's Ivory Capital Q2 Letter

Founded in 1998 by Curtis Macnguyen, Ivory Capital is a long/short equity hedge fund that focuses on value-based investments. It's worth noting that before founding Ivory, Macnguyen worked at Siegler, Colliery & Co, the same shop that Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn previously worked for.

Ivory is based in Los Angeles and today we're covering their second quarter letter that updates their portfolio.

At quarter end, Ivory Capital's top five positions were:

1. Microsoft (MSFT) 6.5%
2. Yahoo! (YHOO) 5.1%
3. Citigroup (C) 4.0%
4. DeNA Co (TYO:2432) 2.7%
5. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 2.6%


Performance & Equity Exposure

Ivory finished the second quarter -2.2% and year to date for 2011 they are -1.85%. Their equity exposure is 69.5% long and 43.4% short, leaving them net long 26.1%. While they saw outperformance in their other long positions of Sprint Nextel (S) and CVS Caremark (CVS), other longs hurt them.


Position Updates: Western Digital (WDC), Seagate Technology (STX) & Hospira (HSP)

The hedge fund thinks that consolidation in the hard disk drive industry should bring solid economics and dampen the cyclical nature of the industry. They also like STX's share repurchases and dividend (4.5% yield).

The current issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter analyzes STX as numerous other hedge funds own shares (and it also features analysis of YHOO, a controversial stock at the moment).

Ivory also fancies generic injectables and infusion pump maker Hospira (HSP) because they see it as a strategic asset with 25% market share and high barriers to entry.

Embedded below is Ivory Capital's Q2 letter to investors (email readers come to the site to view):



For more letters from hedge funds, we've posted up the following:

- Oaktree Capital: Howard Marks' latest commentary

- Corsair Capital sees increased volatility ahead

- David Einhorn & Greenlight Capital's Q2 letter

- Third Point buys MOS & SLE

- Jonathan Ruffer worried about China

Ira Sohn Conference Notes: Hedge Fund Manager Presentations

The Ira Sohn Conference is taking place today in New York and features an all-star line-up of hedge fund managers. This post features part 1 of our notes from their presentations. ***Update: We've also posted up part 2 of our notes from Ira Sohn as well.

Part 1:


Erez Kalir / Sabretooth Capital: His pick was a long of MBIA (MBI) as a 'favorably asymmetric' play. His presentation was entitled, "Economic Death as a Special Situation." He feels that MBIA has 100%-200% upside with only 30% downside at worst, so the risk/reward skew is favorable.

He also likes Argentina as a compelling investment arena since its default in the early 2000's. In particular, he's looking at energy exploration & production names. He points to stocks like YPF SA (YPF) and Crown Point Ventures (CWV).

On the topic of inflation hedging, Kalir doesn't like gold. In fact, he warned against owning it. He also dislikes shorting treasuries. Instead, he prefers to buy farmland. This stance no doubt echoes the sentiment of Jim Rogers, the ex-Quantum fund manager who has also been a staunch advocate of owning farmland. Additionally, we've detailed how subprime profiteer Michael Burry also bought farmland.


Dinakar Singh / TPG-Axon Capital: Singh thinks the current market is a great environment for stockpicking and fancies shares of wireless provider Sprint (S), which David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital also likes (see Einhorn's thoughts here). Singh cites the company's low valuation and it's his favorite turnaround story.

He says S needs to consolidate its two networks starting now with the next generation phones. Singh actually feels like the T-Mobile / AT&T (T) merger is good for Sprint because it removes their largest competitor. Singh notes that the US wireless market could offer defensiveness like utility stocks, but with the added benefit of growth. He thinks S could have 40-70% upside, saying its worth $8-14 per share (currently trading around $6).

TPG-Axon's leading man cited Zhongpin (HOGS) as a compelling investment due to its top line growth and the fact that it's trading at 7x earnings.

Singh also mentioned he thinks that Orkla (OSL: ORK) has a fair value of $65 to $80 as the company was mismanaged and restructuring could unlock value.


Jeff Aronson / Centerbridge Partners: His pick was to go long shares of CIT Group (CIT). This has been a hedge-fund-favorite as some of the largest owners also include Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital, Howard Marks' Oaktree Capital, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, Marc Lasry's Avenue Capital, and Dan Loeb's Third Point. Before Chapter 11, Centerbridge was buying CIT debt. Since then, they've been buying the equity.

Aronson says that the company's intrinsic book value is $59 per share and notes that they have $12 billion in cash on their balance sheet. He highlights that CIT has publicly stated it could buy a retail bank (whose deposits would boost earnings). As a takeout candidate, Centerbridge thinks CIT could be worth as much as $65 (shares trade around $41 currently.)


Robert Howard / KKR: Howard (representing KKR's new equity team) pitched shares of Wabco (WBC), a company that produces anti-lock braking systems among other things. He cites three major trends that WBC can benefit from: cyclical recovery (US & Europe trucking recovery), emerging market growth, as well as tighter safety rules. Howard mentions the company is often overlooked by investors too.

KKR's man also pitched HSN, Inc (HSNI), otherwise known as the Home Shopping Network. He likes their demographic of 30-55 year old women with solid annual income to spend. Howard thinks that John Malone's Liberty Media could make a play for the company too, as he points out that Liberty owns 30% of HSNI and all of QVC, the other major player in the shopping-via-television arena.


Phil Falcone / Harbinger Capital Partners: Falcone talked about his wireless venture, LightSquared. We've covered this play numerous times and while it's not publicly traded yet, Falcone says that it will be some day. Essentially, this is Harbinger's concentrated bet on a 4G network.

Numerous hedge funds have invested in the 'more mobile data usage' theme via various plays. Some have elected to buy the wireless tower operators like American Tower, (AMT), Crown Castle (CCI), and SBA Communications (SBAC). Falcone, on the other hand, has elected to straight up build out his own network as his hedge fund has morphed into a semi-private equity-like fund. He noted that they've accumulated spectrum and are looking at a 4G terrestrial network.

Falcone also likes Crosstex Energy (XTXI). We covered his investment in XTXI back in December and the Harbinger manager likes it due to its complex financial structure. A master limited partnership owns the assets and then XTXI owns that partnership. He drew attention to the fact that this isn't a company that pulls gas out of the ground, but rather a play on gas processing and transmission. Falcone thinks XTXI is worth double what it's trading at now or more (around $9.50 currently).


Jim Chanos / Kynikos Associates: The well-known short-seller attacked alternative energy 'green' plays with a presentation entitled, "Does Solar and Wind = Hot Air?" Chanos said that, "wind is 50% more expensive than natural gas, and solar is 4 times more expensive" and that natural gas prices have essentially shot an "economic arrow" into alternative energy.

In particular, Chanos mentioned Denmark-based Vestas (CPH:VWS or PINK: VWDRY), a company focused on wind power that might be worth looking at for a short.

However, he is most excited about shorting solar power via First Solar (FSLR), a company he believes has outdated technology. Chanos was recently on television talking negatively about this name as well. He points out that Spain and Italy utilize solar power the most. But, the problem there is that the demand is highly subsidized. Also, he points to the management exodus at FSLR as a warning sign for investors to exit shares.


Sunjay Gorawara / Investment Idea Contest Winner: This year's Ira Sohn featured an investment idea contest where the winner was able to present their idea to all attendees. Michael Price introduced the contest winner but while he was talking, he mentioned that Goldman Sachs (GS) could be a buy as it should be worth $100 more than where it currently trades. And in general, he was bullish on financials.

Judges Bill Ackman, David Einhorn, Michael Price, and Joel Greenblatt selected the winning entry of Bridgepoint Education (BPI) from an undergraduate student at Indiana University who will be interning at JP Morgan this summer.

For more hedge fund coverage: Be sure to receive our free updates via email or free updates via RSS reader.


This concludes part 1. Please head to part 2 of our notes from Ira Sohn for coverage of presentations from David Einhorn, Bill Ackman, Carl Icahn and more.

Why A Hedge Fund Manager Sold Sprint Nextel (S)

The following is extracted from Amit Chokshi's Kinnaras Capital Management fourth quarter letter:

"Investors may also be curious regarding the divestiture of Sprint-Nextel ("S"), our highest conviction holding in 2010. When Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn revealed a stake in Sprint Nextel in early December (a few weeks after we had sold), I received a few "what do you think about that" emails, not surprising when one considers Greenlight Capital's 21.5% annualized return since inception in 1996. One of the reasons I sold S was simply due to a flurry of much more attractive prospects that arose in Q3. The limited capital we control allows us to invest in any segment of the market and I wanted to take advantage of that opportunity in Q3.

Nonetheless, I would have considered holding on to a small stake in S if I had greater confidence in its management team, marketing efforts, and competitive dynamics. When establishing our stake in S in early 2010, one component of my investment thesis was the head start S had on its rivals in deploying next generation ("nextgen") cellular capabilities. S's 4G service is provided through its majority stake in Clearwire ("CLWR"). S would also be releasing two spectacular phones using Google's Android Operating System in the summer -- the HTC EVO ("EVO") and Samsung Epic. Sales data was demonstrating that Android phones were gaining considerable momentum and the EVO and Epic were two of the most widely anticipated smartphones of 2010.

Heading into 2010, S would be the first to 4G with a significant lead time over its rivals, had two highly rated phones that could compete against any of the top smartphones, had a very compelling price point relative to other carriers, experienced massive improvements in customer service, and had already demonstrated success in rationalizing parts of its business to drive operational improvements. S also faced few financing constraints with most of its debt maturities far into the future. The stock was cheap across a number of valuation metrics and had a number of catalysts in place that could drive improvements in valuation.

Here's where the train started to get off the tracks. The telecom business is highly competitive and I believe companies have to go for the jugular when it comes to advertising to demonstrate their key strengths over their competitors. For example, Verizon ("VZ") directly mocks AT&T's ("T") network coverage in its television ads, leading the viewer to believe that VZ has the best coverage while T has overpriced and weak network coverage. S intended to release the EVO in June and a number of third party sources considered it to be the best smartphone available. S had for the first time a legitimate top-shelf product and had also developed a very competitive pricing plan offering far more value to a subscriber relative to VZ and T. I had expected some aggressive and smart advertising to promote the EVO functionality and S phone plans directly against its competition.

Instead there appeared to be little to no advertising until the final two weeks of the release and the marketing was very mundane. Effective marketing "shows" rather than "tells" and the EVO commercials were far too convoluted, doing nothing to effectively demonstrate the powerful capabilities of the phone. The video below is one of the initial EVO commercials and should illustrate my point (email readers will need to come to the site to view the videos):



I felt S had squandered a huge opportunity when there were no other competitors to market leading up to the introduction of the EVO and from that point on I began to question S's advertising efforts. For example, S runs advertisements before the coming attractions start in movie theaters. As theaters are usually pretty empty before the coming attractions start, I would wonder how effective the use of these ad dollars were in attracting new subscribers. I also was skeptical of the company's sponsorship of CBS's NFL halftime show and sponsorship of the Sprint Cup for NASCAR. My personal view was that S could be far more effective with advertising that demonstrates what its network and exclusive phones could do rather than spend ad dollars on blanket sponsorship.

The next problem arose with S's handling of CLWR. CLWR is majority owned by S but was also competing directly against its parent company by offering CLWR-branded service as well as specific connection devices such as the iSpot which competed against the S Overdrive. Considering that CLWR burns considerable cash, much of it from S, it was bizarre that S sat idly by for so long allowing CLWR to use S cash to develop products to compete against its parent. In Q4 it became apparent that CLWR would need more capital setting up additional tension between S and CLWR.

At this point S needs CLWR as it provides S with its 4G service but CLWR will still require billions to further expand coverage in the US. It will be challenging for S to fund CLWR's needs while also executing its own capital spending plans. S took far too long to decide to rationalize its iDEN and CDMA networks but it intends to start in 2011. This project will require billions and excludes the roughly $2B+ needed on maintenance capex and FCC license expenditures. These are not immaterial expenditures considering S generates under $6B in EBITDA.

What exacerbates this problem is that competitors are now coming to market with 4G services. While S had a large lead in terms of time, it squandered that lead with ineffectual marketing and poor management of CLWR. The company has a compromised operational and financial strategy and is now facing competition with far better marketing and deeper resources.

For example, S marketing executives could learn a lot from T-Mobile. T-Mobile has released some excellent ads which are exactly what I envisioned S would have done but did not. The T-Mobile ads copy the "I'm a Mac, I'm a PC" commercials Apple developed whereby T-Mobile goes directly after AT&T and the iPhone, highlighting AT&T's poor network performance and limitations of the iPhone 4. S could easily have done similar ads but for whatever reason, S CEO Dan Hesse has been reluctant to highlight any design and operational advantages the EVO and Epic have over the iPhone or the S network has over competitors. T-Mobile has had no such qualms and it would be little surprise if sales of T-Mobile 4G devices (even though T-Mobile really does not have 4G) accelerate due to the smart advertising (video below):



Aside from T-Mobile, VZ is also beginning to market its 4G service. VZ has the deepest pockets of US telecoms and will be rolling out its coverage network at an aggressive clip while S and CLWR struggle to address financing and operational aspects. In addition, 4G smartphones appear to be slated for wide availability across carriers in 2011. While the EVO and Epic were two of the best phones released in 2010, there are a host of very impressive phones set to be released in 2011 such as the Motorola Droid BIONIC, Samsung 4G LTE Smartphone (nextgen Galaxy S), and HTC Thunderbolt. What will make this challenging for S is the cost subsidies associated with increasingly advanced phones will not be as easily absorbed by S relative to its peers as the Company's current plans yield lower ARPU relative to its peers. This could result in further margin pressures.

When entering 2010, S has a number of tangible opportunities and I felt if the company successfully executed on these, operations would improve significantly and thus yield a better valuation for the stock. S had its chances but I believe they missed what was essentially the one "open year" they had to increase subscribers with a relatively light competitive field. As Q3 and Q4 passed, the window between S and its competition was virtually eliminated. I expect that 2011 will be a year where its deeper pocket rivals like VZ flex their muscles and offer 4G services with other attractive smartphones. S may still pay off handsomely for investors but I felt we had better places to invest and that the outlook for S was getting increasingly more challenging.

Disclosure: Author manages a hedge fund and managed accounts with no position in any of the companies mentioned above. "

The above was extracted from Amit Chokshi and Kinnaras Capital Management's fourth quarter letter.

David Einhorn Buys Sprint Nextel (S), Discusses His Other Positions: Interview

David Einhorn of $7 billion hedge fund firm Greenlight Capital was a guest host on CNBC's Squawk Box yesterday morning and provided us with updates on his long positions, short positions, macro views, and more. Einhorn has also been out promoting the new paperback version of his book, Fooling Some of the People All of the Time. It includes a foreword by Joel Greenblatt and a new epilogue with final details of the story's completion.

In his interview, Einhorn reveals that Greenlight Capital recently initiated a position in Sprint Nextel (S). The company has had a tumultuous past and he thinks it is poised for a turnaround, citing improved churn, reputation, handset offerings, and customer service. He also makes it a point to highlight Sprint's vast spectrum as he thinks Sprint can gain market share from such a vast network. Other than that though, Einhorn has found slim pickings in the market as he says things have been "pretty slow."

In terms of his other positions, Einhorn brings up his stake in CareFusion (CFN) that he's owned for a while as it spun-off from Cardinal Health (CAH). He sees CFN experiencing margin expansion in the future and as a play on growth in market share in the company's segment of medical devices. We penned an in-depth research report on CareFusion in our new issue of Hedge Fund Wisdom for those interested.

Einhorn has returned north of 21% annualized (net) and still likes his position in Apple (AAPL) but acknowledges that the company is by no means in the early stages of its growth as the stock has done remarkably well for some time. Regarding his stake in Pfizer (PFE), the Greenlight Capital manager is curious to see what direction the new CEO takes the company in but he still likes it as an investment due to its extremely low multiple.

Lastly, he reiterates that gold (physical, not the ETF) is his fund's largest position but still has yet to disclose just how much of the precious metal he owns. Much of what Einhorn revealed on CNBC, he largely already spoke about in his recent interview with Consuelo Mack which we also detailed.

However, the hedge fund manager did provide us with a few new tidbits yesterday. Turning to Greenlight Capital's latest exposure levels, Einhorn notes that he is typically pretty fully invested and doesn't necessarily hold a lot of cash on hand. At the present, he's about 30-35% net long which is just slightly below the long/short equity hedge fund historical averages of 35-40%.

Here's the video of Einhorn's interview and email readers will need to come to the site to view it:



Part 2 of Einhorn's interview follows with his thoughts on macro issues:



Part 3 details the Greenlight Capital manager's ability to spot red flags such as Lehman Brothers in November 2007 which he correctly identified, shorted, and profited from:



That wraps up another rare David Einhorn television interview. For an in-depth look at the rest of Einhorn's US equity longs, head to our newsletter. We've also posted up a plethora of resources related to Greenlight Capital detailed below:

- The short case on St. Joe (JOE)
- Einhorn's thesis on Vodafone (VOD)
- Greenlight's Q3 letter to investors

Phil Falcone's Harbinger Capital Shows Massive New Citigroup Position: 13F Filing

(This post is part of our series on tracking hedge fund portfolios. If you're unfamiliar with tracking investments they disclose via SEC filings, check out our series preface on hedge fund filings.)

Next up is Philip Falcone's hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners. Harbinger is a multi-billion dollar hedge fund firm with a focus on both distressed assets and equity plays. They often take highly concentrated positions and so they're an easier fund to track. After horrible performance in 2008, Harbinger rebounded in 2009 and finished up 46.5% as noted in our hedge fund performances post. In terms of recent portfolio activity, we detailed Harbinger's new position in African Medical Investments and saw that they've been selling New York Times shares. Falcone's firm has actually been quite active and ambitious as of late as we learned they will be starting a 4G wireless network as they make a large bet on mobile data transmission.

The positions listed below were Harbinger's long equity, note, and options holdings as of March 31st, 2010 as filed with the SEC. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted:


Brand New Positions
Citigroup (C)
NRG Energy (NRG)
Bunge (BG)
Seagate (STX)
Trina Solar (TSL)
Consol Energy (CNX)
VIX Short-term Futures (VXX)
Harbinger Group (HRG)
Vantage Drilling (VTG)
Clearwire (CLWR)
Pioneer Drilling (PDC)
Calpine (CPN) Calls


Increased Positions
Strategic HL & RS (BEE): Increased position size by 252.8%
SPDR Gold (GLD): Increased by 145%
Corn Products (CPO): Increased by 141.9%
Exco Resources (XCO): Increased by 75.7%
Superior Well Service (SWSI): Increased by 33.6%


Reduced Positions
Harry Winston (HWD): Reduced by 60.1%
Istar Financial (SFI): Reduced by 54%
Sprint (S): Reduced by 33.8%
Freeport McMoran (FCX): Reduced by 11.8%


Positions They Sold Out of Completely
Calpine (CPN)
Walter Energy (WLT)
Interpublic (IPG)
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)
Cloud Peak (CLD)
ProShares Ultrashort Financials (SKF)
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)
August Resource (AZC)
ICO (ICOG)
Mgic Investments (MTG)
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Notes


Top 15 Holdings (by percentage of assets reported on 13F filing)

1. Citigroup (C): 15.2%
2. Sprint (S): 10.1%
3. New York Times (NYT): 10%
4. NRG Energy (NRG): 8.5%
5. SPDR Gold (GLD): 7.2%
6. Exco Resources (XCO): 6.9%
7. Corn Products (CPO): 6.5%
8. Bunge (BG): 5.2%
9. Complete Production (CPX): 4.6%
10. Calpine (CPN) Calls: 4%
11. Freeport McMoran (FCX): 3.4%
12. US Airways (LCC): 3.2%
13. Terrestar (TSTR): 2.2%
14. Seagate (STX): 2%
15. Trina Solar (TSL): 1.7%

Please keep in mind that these equity holdings are by no means representative of Harbinger's entire portfolio. They undoubtedly also hold numerous distressed plays and positions in other markets that aren't required to be disclosed. That said, we do get an interesting look at some of their long US equities exposure which totals $1.9 billion.

Harbinger started a few massive new long positions in the first quarter, most notably in Citigroup and NRG Energy. They also disposed of longstanding stakes in Calpine, Walter Energy, and Take-Two Interactive. The latter is interesting because we've seen corporate activist Carl Icahn adding TTWO shares and actively trying to drum up shareholder value. And while Harbinger sold completely out of CPN common stock, they also added a new position in CPN call options so they still have some exposure there.

One interesting talking point is Harbinger's use of exchange traded funds presumably as hedging tools. They've held a position in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) for a while but heavily added to it in the first quarter. They also started a brand new stake in VXX, an ETF based on the volatility index (VIX). As volatility increases (as it definitely has as of late), VXX increases in value. In essence, Harbinger is looking for hedges against panic and for assets that might increase when equity markets are declining.

Lastly, we highlight Harbinger's continued stake in numerous natural resource plays. They've owned and have been in & out of various plays but seemingly like Freeport McMoran and Cliffs Resources the best.

Assets reported on the 13F filing were $1.9 billion this quarter. Data from the SEC is aggregated and sorted automatically by Alphaclone, our source for hedge fund tracking, replicating, and performance backtesting (Market Folly readers can receive a special free 30 day trial). Remember that these filings are not representative of the hedge fund's entire base of AUM.

This post is part of our daily hedge fund portfolio tracking series. We've already detailed activity from numerous managers so click the links below to be taken to the respective portfolio updates: Seth Klarman's Baupost Group, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, and Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, Eddie Lampert's RBS Partners, David Tepper's Appaloosa Management, Mohnish Pabrai's Investment Fund, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital Management, Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, Dan Loeb's Third Point, John Paulson's hedge fund Paulson & Co, Chase Coleman's Tiger Global, and Roberto Mignone's Bridger Management. Be sure to check back daily for new hedge fund updates.