In Las Vegas today at the SALT Conference, the talking stock panel focused on perspectives from value investing legends such as Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors, Barry Rosenstein of JANA Partners, and Joel Greenblatt of Gotham Capital.
Barry Rosenstein of JANA Partners talked about how he's been involved in activist investing since the 1980s and thinks today's environment for it is the best he's seen. They've been an activist in McGraw-Hill (MHP). And though not an activist stake, we've posted JANA's thesis on Barnes & Noble, one of their latest investments.
He also touched on his firm's lack of exposure to financials, noting that the sector is too hard to analyze. Rosenstein will be presenting an investment idea at the NYC Value Investing Congress in October. Market Folly readers can receive a discount here with code N12MF3.
Leon Cooperman of Omega Advisors reiterated his stance that US government bonds are fundamentally overvalued. We've highlighted his case against bonds numerous times before.
In terms of stock picks, he has allocated capital to financials via AIG (AIG), E*Trade (ETFC), Capital One (COF) and Western Union (WU). On the political side of things, he deemed this upcoming election one of the most important in his lifetime.
Joel Greenblatt said he likes tech giants Microsoft (MSFT) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ). He also mentioned Wellpoint (WLP) and CVS Caremark (CVS). His book You Can Be a Stock Market Genius, despite its somewhat cheesy title, is recommended by tons of top hedge fund managers.
Whitney Tilson, the moderator of the panel, said his hedge fund T2 Partners was buying more JPMorgan Chase (JPM) TARP warrants this morning. We also recently posted T2's presentation on AIG.
For more notes from the SALT Conference, check out:
- Identifying opportunities in emerging markets with John Burbank
- Notes from panel with Kyle Bass, Dmitry Balyasny & Steven Tananbaum
- Risk panel with Phil Falcone and Eric Sprott
The above was compiled from notes sent in along with help from live tweets from: @katyawachtel & @realrobcopeland
Friday, May 11, 2012
Notes From SALT Conference: Barry Rosenstein, Leon Cooperman & Joel Greenblatt's Panel on Stocks
Thursday, January 26, 2012
David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Q4 2011 Letter: Covered First Solar, Bought Dell
After a brief hiatus, MarketFolly.com is back in action covering top hedge funds. Right to the action: if you missed it, we wanted to post up David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Q4 2011 letter to investors.
Key Takeaways:
- Covered their short in First Solar (FSLR)
- Covered short in Diamond Foods (DMND)
- New position: bought Dell (DELL) @ average price of $15.53
- Re-established position: bought Xerox (XRX) @ average price of $7.61
- Sold Travelers (TRV): Greenlight cut their forward earnings forecast
- Sold Pfizer (PFE)
- Sold Becton Dickinson (BDX) due to disappointing guidance
- Sold CVS (CVS) to fund more compelling opportunities
Embedded below is David Einhorn's letter where you can read Greenlight's rationale for their new buys of Dell (DELL) and Xerox (XRX):
For more from this hedge fund, you can also check out Greenlight Capital's Q3 letter as well as David Einhorn's short case on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR).
Monday, July 25, 2011
Curtis Macnguyen's Ivory Capital Q2 Letter
Founded in 1998 by Curtis Macnguyen, Ivory Capital is a long/short equity hedge fund that focuses on value-based investments. It's worth noting that before founding Ivory, Macnguyen worked at Siegler, Colliery & Co, the same shop that Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn previously worked for.
Ivory is based in Los Angeles and today we're covering their second quarter letter that updates their portfolio.
At quarter end, Ivory Capital's top five positions were:
1. Microsoft (MSFT) 6.5%
2. Yahoo! (YHOO) 5.1%
3. Citigroup (C) 4.0%
4. DeNA Co (TYO:2432) 2.7%
5. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 2.6%
Performance & Equity Exposure
Ivory finished the second quarter -2.2% and year to date for 2011 they are -1.85%. Their equity exposure is 69.5% long and 43.4% short, leaving them net long 26.1%. While they saw outperformance in their other long positions of Sprint Nextel (S) and CVS Caremark (CVS), other longs hurt them.
Position Updates: Western Digital (WDC), Seagate Technology (STX) & Hospira (HSP)
The hedge fund thinks that consolidation in the hard disk drive industry should bring solid economics and dampen the cyclical nature of the industry. They also like STX's share repurchases and dividend (4.5% yield).
The current issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter analyzes STX as numerous other hedge funds own shares (and it also features analysis of YHOO, a controversial stock at the moment).
Ivory also fancies generic injectables and infusion pump maker Hospira (HSP) because they see it as a strategic asset with 25% market share and high barriers to entry.
Embedded below is Ivory Capital's Q2 letter to investors (email readers come to the site to view):
For more letters from hedge funds, we've posted up the following:
- Oaktree Capital: Howard Marks' latest commentary
- Corsair Capital sees increased volatility ahead
- David Einhorn & Greenlight Capital's Q2 letter
- Third Point buys MOS & SLE
- Jonathan Ruffer worried about China
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Value Investing Congress Summary: Marks, Romick, Tilson, Leonard & More
Below is a summary of yesterday's Value Investing Congress in California. Tomorrow we'll provide a summary of day two so if you haven't already, make sure to sign-up to receive our free updates via email.
Howard Marks (Oaktree Capital): Oaktree manages over $80 billion and we've covered Marks' insightful commentary numerous times. His presentation highlighted the "human side of investing" and the difference between theory and practice. The manager said he splits investors up into two categories: those who know and those who don't, pointing out that it's what investors *think* they know that gets them into trouble. Risk can be introduced when investors overestimate what they know about the future.
Marks says that the main difference between value and growth investors is that value investors focus on the present. He went onto say that, "(The) most important science for investors is psychology. Investors who have their psyches under control will do best." This of course beckons the age old concept of not letting your emotions get in the way of making rational decisions.
He also went on to focus on the importance and difficulty of being contrarian and that market tops typically occur during a time of rampant bullish euphoria. Marks noted that pro-cyclical behavior is a huge mistake.
Oaktree's funds currently have a lot of cash on hand as opportunities are not abundant; Oaktree seems to be doing more selling than buying these days. He also mentioned he thinks that most institutions over-diversify.
Marks said that the gist of his presentation is featured in his new book that we highlighted yesterday, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor.
Steve Romick (First Pacific Advisors): Romick noted that enticing opportunities today are scarce and compared it to trying to ski in the middle of summer. The one pocket of snow he does see potential in is large cap stocks as he believes small caps are overvalued.
Romick presented CVS Caremark (CVS) as a business with good tailwinds and a store footprint that's hard to replace. He says the company is undervalued, trading at a P/E of 12.2x net of the pharmacy benefit management (PBM) hedge. He also points out that management owns a lot of stock and that private label is an opportunity for them to grow as it's only 17% of revenue right now.
Interestingly enough, CVS also seems to be under pressure to split up from its previous merger (combining drugstore chain CVS with pharmacy benefit manager Caremark). Numerous analysts and investors believe the break-up value is much higher than CVS' current share price. Rival Walgreen's (WAG) recently sold-off its PBM segment.
Lastly, Romick also gave another investment idea in Hong Kong traded Goldlion (HK 533). It is an apparel and goods manufacturer in China that caters to the mid-high end consumer, akin to Coach or Polo.
Steve Leonard (Pacifica Capital Management): Pacifica focuses on picking good businesses, but more importantly places emphasis on not making mistakes since they run a highly concentrated book (typically with 10 or fewer holdings). Pacifica originally started out as real estate investors and currently does not see any opportunities in commercial real estate. After shifting their focus to equities, they've beaten the S&P 500 by 9.4% each year since inception.
They primarily invest in domestic companies but like plays with exposure to global growth. They started buying Fairfax Financial (FRFHF) 10 years ago and today it's their largest position. Their second largest holding is Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). They haven't really stepped too far out of the box as those are perennial value investing picks.
Whitney Tilson & Glenn Tongue (T2 Partners): Their ideas centered on land companies: one long and one short. They provided an update on St. Joe (JOE ~ their largest short position) and said that the company had incentive not to writedown its developments because around $1 billion of its market cap was attributed to them. As an example, T2 cited how Windmark is worth $12 million, but St. Joe is carrying it at an inflated value 92% higher (T2 said that JOE can do this because of accounting rules). For more on this rationale, head to David Einhorn's short thesis on JOE.
T2's is also long a land-oriented company in the form of General Growth Properties' spin-off, Howard Hughes Corp (HHC). They like HHC because it's undervalued and has a portfolio of high quality assets in desirable locations. The company is difficult to value due to various development properties and other assets, but T2 says that it's obviously worth much more than the $0 carrying value some pieces currently garner (like the air rights over Fashion Mall in Las Vegas). We posted up Tilson's presentation on JOE & HHC here.
Tilson also appeared on CNBC to talk about their stance on JOE and HHC (video embedded below):
On their recent conference call, T2 mentioned they were adding to their HHC position on the recent pullback. Bill Ackman is the Chairman of HHC and his hedge fund Pershing Square owns HHC too. For more from Tilson, head to T2's thoughts on contrarianism.
Rahul Saraogi (Atyant Capital India Fund): Given that Saraogi manages an Indian-focused fund, it should come as no surprise that his presentation focused on this country and the ability to find gems in a "minefield of value traps." Overall, he thinks India has nice tailwinds: depth of markets, domestic demand, and solid demographics. The main question he focused on was what prevents a stock from reaching its intrinsic value?
While there are 6,000 publicly traded companies in India due to the low cost of going public, the trick is identifying the real value. Saraogi thinks the country is a paradise for value investors who are willing to put in the work to separate the gems from the value traps. Liquidity is volatile and there's little analyst coverage outside of the top stocks, so there's some hairy situations investors can dig into. However, he also notes that corporate governance is still a problem there, citing examples of frequent equity dilution.
David Nierenberg (D3 Family Funds): Nierenberg works directly with companies in a constructive manner in order to unlock value. Back in 2008 he learned a valuable lesson that the macro picture matters as cheap got even cheaper. He offered two investment ideas: Multiplus (SAO: MPLU3), a Brazilian loyalty program administrator and MBAC (NEX: MBC), another Brazilian play that focuses on phosphate.
Guy Gottfried (Rational Investment Group): Gottfried, previously of Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital, turned to Canada for value investing opportunities. The inefficient market there has priced Morguard Corp (TSX: MRC) quite cheap at less than 5x cashflow while the company is very well-run. He argues that you essentially get their owned properties for free.
Ori Eyal (Emerging Value Capital Management): Eyal's presentation focused on a company's management and their (lack of) care about minority shareholders. Eyal's global focus means he has to research not only the company, but the country as well.
He presented two ideas: first, a share-class arbitrage of Grupo Prisa. He says to simply long the B shares (PRIS/b) and short the A shares (PRIS/a) as the risk/reward is skewed favorably with 50% potential upside and limited downside.
His second idea was Israel-traded Willi Foods, the leading kosher food distributor in Israel that is also looking to acquire a distributor in the United States. The company trades for around 5x this year's earnings net of cash (the $50 million cash stockpile represents half the market cap).
Kian Ghazi (Hawkshaw Capital Management): Hawkshaw runs a concentrated long/short fund and focuses on high quality companies. Ghazi presented Ingram Micro (IM) as a one-stop-shop and says that the threat from "the cloud" is overblown and that not all software is shifting there.
The company has 25% market share (leading its competitors) and Ghazi thinks it can still grow 3-4% as the industry has been focusing on ROIC. While Ingram Micro trades at .9 times tangible book value, the primary risk here is a global slowdown in IT spending.
Tomorrow we'll post a summary of day two so be sure to subscribe to our free updates via email or via RSS reader.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Julian Robertson's Tiger Management Bets on Intel, Wal-Mart & Monsanto: 13F Q1 2010
(This post is part of our series on tracking hedge fund portfolios. If you're unfamiliar with tracking investments they disclose via SEC filings, check out our series preface on hedge fund filings.)
Next up is investment guru and legend Julian Robertson who founded one of the lauded hedge funds of the era, Tiger Management. He grew the fund from $8 million at inception to over $22 billion at its peak. Between 1980 and 2000, Tiger compounded a gross rate of 31.5%, but after losses of 4% in 1998 and 19% in 1999, Tiger shut down. For more information on Julian, check out Daniel Strackman's book entitled, Julian Robertson: A Tiger in the Land Of Bulls And Bears.
Since Tiger's dissolution, Robertson's former employees have started successful funds of their own, deemed the 'Tiger Cubs'. Additionally, Robertson has himself seeded some other managers with vast potential, dubbed the 'Tiger Seeds'. This vast and expansive network of hedge fund managers is almost akin to a farm system for stockpickers and we track the majority of these funds. To learn more about Tiger Management, head to our in-depth profile of Julian Robertson.
While his hedge fund Tiger Management closed down years ago, Julian Robertson still makes investments via the Tiger Management LLC vehicle as evidenced by SEC filings. As such, we will continue to track Robertson's holdings via this vehicle's public disclosures. In the past, we've gotten a tiny glimpse at Robertson's portfolio when in late 2009 we saw he had placed a bet that interest rates would rise in the future via constant maturity swaps. We haven't heard too much from him as of late but we'll of course post anything of interest in the future. If you want to jump back in time, we've posted an interview with Robertson from back in 1998 around Tiger's peak.
The positions listed below were Tiger Management's long equity, note, and options holdings as of March 31st, 2010 as filed with the SEC. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted:
Brand New Positions
Priceline.com (PCLN)
Apollo Group (APOL)
Hologic (HOLX)
LCA Vision (LCAV)
Madison Square Garden (MSG) ~ due to a spin-off from Cablevision
Sensata Technologies (ST)
Increased Positions
Verisk Analytics (VRSK): Increased position size by 30.3%
Intel (INTC): Increased by 20.6%
EMC (EMC): Increased by 17.5%
Reduced Positions
Solutia (SOA): Reduced position size by 31.9%
Mastercard (MA): Reduced by 24.5%
Lamar Advertising (LAMR): Reduced by 19.7%
Fidelity National Information (FIS): Reduced by 19.6%
DirecTV (DTV): Reduced by 18.6%
Talisman Energy (TLM): Reduced by 15.1%
Visa (V): Reduced by 14.8%
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): Reduced by 13.6%
Positions They Sold Out of Completely
Google (GOOG)
Walmart (WMT)
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
SBA Communications (SBAC)
Teradata (TDC)
Maxim Integrated (MXIM)
Genoptix (GXDX)
IAC Interactive (IACI)
Top 15 Holdings (by percentage of assets reported on 13F filing)
1. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) Calls: 8.22%
2. Monsanto (MON) Calls: 5.96%
3. Intel (INTC): 4.58%
4. Wuxi Pharmatech (WX): 3.68%
5. Apple (AAPL): 3.48%
6. CVS Caremark (CVS): 3.47%
7. DigitalGlobe (DGI): 3.45%
8. Visa (V): 3.44%
9. Solutia (SOA): 3.35%
10. Mastercard (MA): 3.26%
11. Skyworks (SWKS): 3.15%
12. Dick Sporting Goods (DKS): 3.13%
13. Verisk Analytics (VRSK): 3.13%
14. DirecTV (DTV): 3.09%
15. EMC (EMC): 3.08%
It should come as no surprise that the Tiger Management founder himself has a portfolio reminiscent of other 'Tiger Cub' hedge funds. After all, since Robertson often gets to listen in on meetings and chat with these managers, he can cherry pick their best ideas as well as add his own into the mix. Julian has a large position in CVS Caremark, just like Lee Ainslie and Maverick Capital which is probably hurting performance after the recent plunge in shares. Additionally, Robertson owns DirecTV which we've seen Chase Coleman's Tiger Global is bullish on. Lastly, Tiger holds perennial favorites like Apple, Mastercard, Visa, and Verisk Analytics.
On a sector level, Robertson severely decreased technology exposure and ramped up positions in services. In terms of sales, Robertson liquidated his Google (GOOG) position which is intriguing because many other managers own this name as it's one of the most important stocks to hedge funds. Since Robertson exited in the first quarter, it seems to have been the right decision as GOOG shares have spiraled down. He also sold off Wal-Mart (WMT) common stock but maintains a very hefty position in WMT call options. Tiger Management's portfolio overall saw more selling than buying as assets reported decreased. The 13F filing shows Tiger had $574 million in reported assets this quarter, down from over $600 million in the quarter prior (remember that these filings are not representative of the hedge fund's entire base of AUM).
To see the latest hedge fund portfolios, we recommend using Alphaclone as Market Folly readers receive a special free 14 day trial. It's our source for hedge fund data, replication, backtesting and more. This post is part of our daily hedge fund portfolio tracking series. We've already detailed activity from numerous managers so click the links below to be taken to the respective portfolio updates. We've covered investment gurus such as: Seth Klarman's Baupost Group and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, and George Soros.
Additionally, value and activist funds such as: Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, Eddie Lampert's RBS Partners, David Tepper's Appaloosa Management, Mohnish Pabrai's Investment Fund, Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital Management, Dan Loeb's Third Point.
'Tiger Cub' funds like: Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, Roberto Mignone's Bridger Management, and Shumway Capital Partners.
'Tiger Seed' funds that were seeded by Julian Robertson, including: Chase Coleman's Tiger Global.
Our latest addition, hedge funds started by former employees of various Tiger Cub/Tiger Seed funds: David Stemerman's Conatus Capital.
And lastly, other hedge funds employing various other strategies ranging from risk arbitrage to distressed to global macro: John Paulson's hedge fund Paulson & Co, Phil Falcone's Harbinger Capital Partners,
Be sure to check back daily for new hedge fund updates.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital Bullish on CVS Caremark (CVS) & Technology: 13F Filing Q1 2010
(This post is part of our series on tracking hedge fund portfolios. If you're unfamiliar with tracking investments they disclose via SEC filings, check out our series preface on hedge fund filings.)
Next up is Lee Ainslie's hedge fund Maverick Capital. Lee founded the firm with seed capital from the Wyly Family in Texas after he left Julian Robertson's hedge fund Tiger Management. Maverick focuses on intensive fundamental research on both the long and short sides of the portfolio, but doesn't employ pairs trades. Ainslie likes to focus on risk management and positions typically do not exceed more than 8% of the portfolio. Maverick's analytical team is divided up by sector and place an emphasis on enterprise value to sustainable free cash flow.
The positions listed below were Maverick's long equity, note, and options holdings as of March 31st, 2010 as filed with the SEC. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted:
Brand New Positions
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
Increased Positions
Qualcomm (QCOM): Increased position by 269.7%
Reduced Positions
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): Reduced position by 99.6%
Positions They Sold Out of Completely
Autodesk (ADSK)
Top 15 Holdings (by percentage of assets reported on 13F filing)
CVS Caremark is Maverick's largest stake and here's a brief history with their position: Back in the first quarter of 2009, we actually saw Ainslie sell out of CVS and buy into rival Walgreens. Then in the fourth quarter of 2009, we posted on our Twitter account that Ainslie mentioned he was very keen on shares of CVS at an investment conference as it was one of his highest conviction picks. That much is now evident in his portfolio as CVS sits as Maverick's largest holding as of the first quarter in 2010. CVS was also mentioned on a list of analysts' best stock picks for 2010.
This post is part of our daily hedge fund portfolio tracking series. We've already detailed activity from numerous managers so click the links below to be taken to the respective portfolio updates: Seth Klarman's Baupost Group, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, and Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, David Einhorn'sGreenlight Capital, Eddie Lampert's RBS Partners, David Tepper's Appaloosa Management, Mohnish Pabrai's Investment Fund, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital. Be sure to check back daily for new hedge fund updates.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Analysts' Best Stock Picks For 2010
Raymond James' global research is out with a list of their analysts' best stock picks for 2010. Our previous post on this list was taken down due to the list not being distributed to the public yet. So, now that it is available publicly, here is their list. Their picks from this past year (2009) was up 52% compared to an S&P return over the same period of 30.1%, so they've outperformed by a wide margin. In fact, their annual list of stock picks has outperformed the S&P 500 in all year but one since 1996.
Their goal is to identify stocks that will produce "above-average price appreciation" over the course of the next year. They certainly did that with their 2009 list and so let's see if they can do it again with their impending 2010 selections.
Investment theme and stock pick lists for 2010 seem to be popular amongst the various financial institutions right now heading into the new year. Just yesterday, we covered the top ten investment themes for 2010 and how to play them. We've also detailed the top ten stocks held by hedge funds as well. Today we drill it down to specific stock picks for the new year courtesy of Raymond James. As always, take everything with a grain of salt as these reflect their own opinions. Without further ado, here's the list:
Analysts' Best Picks for 2010
- Aflac (AFL)
- Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)
- Altera Corporation (ALTR)
- Bank of America (BAC)
- Best Buy (BBY)
- Chevron (CVX)
- Concho Resources (CXO)
- CVS Caremark (CVS)
- FLIR Systems (FLIR)
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV)
- Nuance Communications (NUAN)
- Sybase (SY)
- TD Ameritrade (AMTD)
Let's dive into some specifics regarding each of their picks:
Aflac (AFL): Raymond James likes Aflac because they feel there is room for growth from supplemental health insurance products. Additionally, they fancy AFL's entrance into the group market. Overall, they feel they will see continued long-term demand. Finally, RJ writes, "Our price target of $60, established on October 29, assumes a normalized P/E on our 2010 EPS expectation of 11.7x less expected investment losses of $2.35 per share. The normalized P/E target is a 20% discount to the then current S&P 500 P/E of 15.6x based on a mean 2010 EPS estimate of $71.17."
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR): Their pick here is based on valuation as well as leverage to the metallurgical coal market, an area that is strengthening. They are also well diversified in other areas and have a solid balance sheet. RJ's main thesis here is valuation based as they write, "Our $52.00 target price factors in our target multiples on the various metrics including 15x P/E ratio, 7.5x P/CF, and 7x EBITDA, which fit within the historical trading ranges of ANR, along with a long-term DCF analysis. Note that this does not include any value for the ~330 Bcf of natural gas reserves, which we believe is easily worth another $5.00 per share, with upside over time through its Marcellus acreage."
Altera (ALTR): Raymond James has selected Altera due to their positioning to capitalize on programmable logic devices (PLDs). They think ALTR will outpace the semiconductor industry in growth by 2x over the course of the next few years. Their analysts write, "ALTR shares remain one of our favorite ideas with a 12-month price target of $29, based on a 23x target P/E multiple to our 2011 EPS estimate of $1.25. This multiple is a slight premium to the shares' 21x historic P/E average over the last three years, which we believe is conservative given Altera's solid business model and leadership in the industry."
Bank of America (BAC): Their tagline on this stock is simply "superior upside potential." As we have covered previously, numerous hedge funds agree as BAC is one of the most popular stocks amongst hedge funds. Analysts at Raymond James feel an oligopoly has emerged in US banking and BAC is right up there with the best in risk-based pricing as they write, "Trading at only 69% of book value and 131% of tangible book value compared to the recent industry averages of 114% and 164%, respectively, shares of BAC offer attractive risk/reward pricing and compare favorably to large-cap peers. Bank of America has already received approval to pay back its $45 billion in TARP funds and we believe a CEO announcement is imminent, both of which should receive a favorable response from the Street."
Best Buy (BBY): RJ's analytical team feels Best Buy can continue to capitalize on the demise of Circuit City as they will continue to gobble up market share, expanding returns. Improving operating margins and an increasing consumer base is boosting BBY's performance and they feel management is one of the best in consumer electronics. RJ writes, "Our $52 price target was reached by placing a ~15x multiple on our FY11 EPS estimate of $3.45, which represents a 16.7% discount to its historical three-year average of 18x."
Chevron (CVX): Chevron is the 'best positioned' among the integrated oil plays, RJ says. This is due to their above average oil focus, their drill-bit track record as they have the highest resource replacement rate, and lastly their small refining segment which should benefit them as they feel those with large exposure to refining will suffer going forward. Raymond James' analysts write, "Quite simply, we believe Chevron should be a core long-term holding for energy investors. Our $92.00 target price is based on ~11.6x our 2010 EPS estimate of $7.92, a slight discount to the mean 2000-2009 P/E. Inclusive of the current 3.5% dividend yield, our target price implies total return potential of 18%."
Concho Resources (CXO): Their pick here is mainly due to high returns in the Permian Basin as the vast majority of their revenues are tied to the price of oil. Of CXO, RJ's analysts say, "Concho generates some of the highest cash margins in our E&P group. One of the company’s core plays, the Yeso, generates an 80% internal rate of return at $70/Bbl oil. Concho is also one of the best in the entire E&P universe on production growth per debt-adjusted share (~35% vs. 3% for the peer group)."
CVS Caremark (CVS): This selection is based on the fact that CVS's model is not broken and that valuation is still attractive. They argue that the worst is behind this name and that going forward retail tailwinds will be behind them and they will see improvements in their Long's acquisition. Raymond James analysts argue that CVS now has compelling relative valuation and that you could potentially be getting their PBM essentially for free. They write, "With expectations reset, the potential for an improved 2011 selling season, and continued share gains in retail, we believe shares are poised to expand off of these trough valuation levels, especially if management continues to deploy significant levels of FCF to share repurchases. Our $39 price target represents 13x 2011 EPS of $2.95, toward the low end of historic ranges." Back on November 5th on our Twitter account we actually mentioned that Lee Ainslie (hedge fund manager of Maverick Capital) was supposedly very keen on shares of CVS at an investment conference that took place before the recent disappointment. We'll have to see if he still favors it going forward.
FLIR Systems (FLIR): Their bullishness on FLIR is attributed to rising orders and what they deem to be attractive valuation. FLIR is a pure play on thermal imaging and infrared technology, an area with lots of growth potential. They write, "As time progresses through next year and investors value FLIR on 2011 earnings, we believe the stock can reach the $40.00 range as its multiple expands toward the historical average. Our $35.00 target price is a 23x multiple on our 2010 EPS estimate of $1.50, in-line with the firm’s historical average multiple and in-line with peers."
National Oilwell Varco (NOV): This has previously been a hedge fund favorite and now Raymond James feel it will benefit throughout 2010. Their rationale: compelling valuation, free cash flow that is strong, and inorganic growth opportunities. They simply feel this is the best name in the oil service space by writing, "Our target price of $60.00 is based on ~18.5x our 2010 EPS. This valuation is in-line with its oilfield manufacturing peers and represents a more reasonable valuation for the company given its tremendous cash position, decent yield, and excellent growth prospects."
Nuance Communications (NUAN): Raymond James feels that speech recognition will be a forcible trend in technology and that Nuance is how you can play it. NUAN is already well positioned in a market that is just now entering the mainstream. Their analysts feel that, "Catalysts for the stock could include: gradual improvement in on-premise enterprise sales and resurgence in enterprise speech growth rates to 10+%, continued large on-demand wins within healthcare, potential benefits from the healthcare stimulus for Dragon Medical, continued new handset and auto wins for mobile, large hosted mobile care wins, and strong cash flow generation."
Sybase (SY): Their analytical team has decided that Sybase actually makes sense in any market environment. However, they have picked it for their 2010 list because it is a recession-resilient business and that they can capitalize on secular growth. RJ says, "Our $49 price target is based on a forward P/E multiple of 19x our 2010 EPS estimate of $2.58. We believe this is justified due to continued license growth, an improving operating margin, and the belief that we will continue to increase our EPS estimates."
TD Ameritrade (AMTD): Rounding out their list of selections, TD Ameritrade makes the cut due to possible catalysts, a solid balance sheet, as well as possible earnings growth should the Fed raise rates during the next year. RJ's analysts write, "TD Ameritrade remains at a discount to peer Charles Schwab (SCHW/$17.88/Outperform), which is currently trading at 21x our 2010 EPS estimate of $0.84 and 14x our 2011 EPS estimate of $1.29."
So there you have it. A few peculiar insertions but some logical ones as well. We'll have to see if their list can outperform the S&P500 yet again this coming year. We've also covered some other research out of Raymond James as we detail their chief investment strategist Jeff Saut's weekly market commentary. You can check out his stock market commentary from this week, as well as his previous market commentary where he feels a weak dollar will drive further market upside.
Comparing their list to the top stocks held by hedge funds, we see very little overlap. However, one stock where they both resoundingly agree is Bank of America (BAC). Tons of hedge funds hold this name and Raymond James has labeled it one of their top picks. For more favored stock picks for the year 2010, check out the top ten investment themes for 2010 as well as the most popular stocks among hedge funds.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital Bet Big On Technology Stocks
This is the third quarter 2009 edition of our hedge fund portfolio tracking series. If you're unfamiliar with tracking hedge fund movements or SEC filings, check out our series preface on hedge fund 13F filings.
Next up is Lee Ainslie's hedge fund firm Maverick Capital. Ainslie learned his ways under the guidance of hedge fund legend Julian Robertson and is a member of the Tiger Cub family. (You can view a Tiger Cub family tree here). As such, Maverick is a part of the Tiger Cub portfolio clone created with Alphaclone that is seeing great returns and is comprised of holdings widely held by all of the Tiger Cub hedge funds.
Maverick manages well over $8 billion and focuses on straight up stock picking on both sides of the book (long and short) but they do not employ pairs trades. They have six industry heads and each team handles their respective sector. Risk management is a big focus at Maverick and position sizes typically don't go above 5-8% of the portfolio. They focus on value and growth at a reasonable price (GARP) investments and they like to compare enterprise value to sustainable free cash flow. To learn more about this hedge fund, check out our profile/biography on Lee Ainslie & Maverick.
Keep in mind that the positions listed below were Maverick's long equity, note, and options holdings as of September 30th, 2009 as filed with the SEC. We don't cover every single portfolio maneuver, as we instead focus on all the big moves. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted.
Some New Positions
Brand new positions that they initiated last quarter:
Corning (GLW)
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Citigroup (C)
Macys (M)
CVS Caremark (CVS)
Itron (ITRI)
Pfizer (PFE)
Bank of America (BAC)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Williams Sonoma (WSM)
Rovi Corporation (ROVI)
Google (GOOG)
Equinix (EQIX)
Whole Foods (WFMI)
Some Increased Positions
Positions they already owned but added shares to:
First Solar (FSLR): Increased position by 307.5%
Visa (V): Increased by 88.2%
Apollo Group (APOL): Increased by 49.4%
Gilead Science (GILD): Increased by 48.9%
Marvell Technology (MRVL): Increased by 42.9%
Priceline (PCLN): Increased by 42.2%
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): Increased by 40%
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): Increased by 37%
Amgen (AMGN): Increased by 31.3%
Some Reduced Positions
Stakes they sold shares in but still own:
Gap (GPS): Reduced position by 46.7%
Lorillard (LO): Reduced by 44.9%
PepsiCo (PEP): Reduced by 35.8%
Lender Processing (LPS): Reduced by 26%
Palm (PALM): Reduced by 22.3%
America Movil (AMX): Reduced by 18.9%
Davita (DVA): Reduced by 18.8%
Apache (APA): Reduced by 18.7%
Covidien (COV): Reduced by 9.9%
Removed Positions
Positions they sold out of completely:
Wyeth (WYE)
Walgreen (WAG)
Netapp (NTAP)
Research in Motion (RIMM)
Mastercard (MA)
State Street (STT)
Eaton (ETN)
Leap Wireless (LEAP)
CTrip (CTRP)
Hanesbrands (HBI)
Discovery Communications - Series C (DISCK)
Jetblue (JBLU)
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Finish Line (FINL)
Orthofix (OFIX)
BPW Acquisition (BPW-U)
Liberty Media Corp - Series A (LCAPA)
MSCI (MXB)
Officemax (OMX)
Top 15 Holdings by percentage of assets reported on 13F filing
- Apple (AAPL): 3.38%
- Hewlett Packard (HPQ): 3.37%
- Corning (GLW): 3.1%
- Qualcomm (QCOM): 2.8%
- Priceline (PCLN): 2.52%
- Apollo Group (APOL): 2.5%
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM): 2.5%
- Gilead Sciences (GILD): 2.48%
- Citigroup (C): 2.46%
- Macys (M): 2.43%
- Marvell Technology (MRVL): 2.42%
- Amgen (AMGN): 2.3%
- Liberty Media (LMDIA): 2.28%
- Progressive (PGR): 2.21%
- First Solar (FSLR): 2.2%
Maverick added to technology names the most on a quarter over quarter basis. Four of their top 10 holdings were brand new positions just added. Half of those were technology names (Qualcomm & Corning) and they were Maverick's third and fourth largest holdings respectively. Not to mention, Maverick's top two holdings were also tech plays in Apple and Hewlett Packard. Do you see a theme here?
Lee Ainslie's hedge fund also added largely to shares of Priceline, Apollo Group, and JP Morgan Chase. This is intriguing mainly because other 'Tiger Cub' hedge funds were buying the exact same names (see Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global which we just covered this morning). A few other names Ainslie added to that are more unique to their portfolio include Gilead Sciences as well as First Solar, a name that they tripled their exposure in.
We also want to focus on their new portfolio addition in CVS Caremark. Way back in the first quarter of this year, Maverick sold out of CVS in favor of competitor Walgreens. Now, fast forward to the third quarter of this year and we see that Maverick has done the opposite and has sold completely out of Walgreens and started a new stake in CVS Caremark again. Possibly the most interesting aspect of this whole 'switcheroo' is that Lee Ainslie was at an investing conference in late October at the University of Virginia and he mentioned one of his current favorite plays was CVS. He obviously just added this name in the third quarter and then a few days after the conference on November 5th we saw shares of CVS drop from $36 to $28 and wondered if Ainslie was buying or not. Shares are now trading around the $30 mark. We'll definitely be interested to see what Ainslie did with this position when the fourth quarter portfolio disclosures are released given that he has been flip-flopping on various pharmacy plays throughout the year.
Below are some graphical illustrations of the changes made to Maverick Capital's portfolio courtesy of Drew Robertson at Financial Research Station:
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)Assets from the collective holdings reported to the SEC via 13F filing were $8.3 billion this quarter compared to $6.4 billion last quarter, so they deployed almost $2 billion into long US equities on a quarter over quarter basis. Please keep in mind that when we state "percentage of portfolio," we are referring to the percentage of assets reported on the 13F filing. Since these filings only report longs (and not shorts or cash positions), the percentages are skewed. Also, please again note that these positions were as of September 30th so two months have elapsed and they've undoubtedly shifted around their portfolio since then.
This is just one of the 40+ prominent funds that we'll be covering in our Q3 2009 hedge fund portfolio series. We've already covered Seth Klarman's Baupost Group Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, John Paulson's firm Paulson & Co and Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global so check back daily as we'll be covering new hedge fund portfolios.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Analysts' Best Stock Picks For 2010
*Update: This post has been removed per the request of representatives from Raymond James. Our apologies for any inconvenience. In the mean time, we highly recommend checking out the top ten investment themes for 2010 as well as the most popular stocks owned by hedge funds.
If you wanted more research out of Raymond James, we've also detailed their chief investment strategist Jeff Saut's weekly market commentary. You can check out his stock market commentary from this week, as well as his previous market commentary where he feels a weak dollar will drive further market upside.
