Gauging Fear in the Markets: Put/Call Ratio and Volatility Index (VIX)

Two fear gauges many people use in the markets are the Volatility Index (VIX) and the Put/Call Ratio. And, both are getting close to levels that historically signal the intense fear in the markets we've seemingly been waiting forever for. Why are we waiting for such fear? Because it typically marks an opportunity.

First, my man Stewie has a great Put/Call chart up illustrating the historical levels of the ratio. As the ratio reaches 1.20, you can see that it has coincided with market lows/tradeable bottoms. So, while the market is down big and there is some level of fear... there is no true panic yet. The assumption would be that we are well on our way to true panic and levels of 1.20 on the Put/Call Ratio. If this becomes the case, I would look to start buying a few names for a trade at the very least. Don't ya just love buying when there's blood in the streets? As the chart illustrates, those levels on the ratio have marked tradeable bottoms (but not THE bottom). This is pure chart candy right here:

(click to enlarge)

Secondly, VitalTrends has the historical Volatility Index (VIX) chart posted up for us. Typically, as the VIX blasts past 30, a strong level or fear sets in. And, once you get as high as 35-37, panic and capitulation often occurs. Now, that's not to say that we could always go even higher on the VIX and reach even new levels of fear. But, historically, a VIX of around 37 has been a tradeable bottom as it marked intense fear and capitulation. If you were to overlay this chart with a chart of the market, you would find that those spikes in the VIX would coincide with tradeable bottoms in the market (but not THE bottom).

(click to enlarge)

The point of gauging fear? Opportunity. Should panic truly set in, we should have a very tradeable bottom on our hands (emphasis on 'tradeable,' as this is not THE bottom). We'll see what happens.


Sources: Stewie and VitalTrends

Hedge Fund Tracking: Moore Capital Management's 13F Filing (Louis Bacon)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here).

Time to continue the Hedge Fund tracking series! If you've missed them, I've already covered Jeffrey Gendell's Tontine Partners here, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital here, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital here, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital here, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital here, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital here, and Boone Pickens' BP Capital here. This week, I'm taking a slightly different approach to the hedge fund tracking series. I'm doing so because the 13F SEC filings are filed on a quarterly basis, so these materials are time sensitive and the next ones are due out in November. I stated in my series preface that you need to treat these as a lagging indicator, because that's what they are. The holdings discussed below reflect portfolio holdings as of June 30th, 2008. So, since these forms are so tedious to sort through, I've condensed the rest of the hedge funds I track to summarize their major moves and top holdings.

Additionally, the majority of the rest of the funds I follow are macro funds. And, since 13F filings only detail equity holdings, we're left with a bit of a problem. Macro funds typically employ strategies that encompass many financial markets. Be it commodities, currency, futures, foreign markets.... you name it. So, these funds are much harder to track. Since they are not required to disclose positions held in those markets, we only get to see their equity holdings. But, at the same time, I still find the information useful because many of these funds have numerous large equity positions which give you a broad sense as to what their strategies may be.

So, first up in the macro hedge fund tracking series is Moore Capital Management. This $10 billion group of hedge funds is ran by Louis Bacon, the famed trader and risk manager. He comes from the group of "offspring" of the legendary Commodities Corp. Bacon emerged as one of the great macro traders alongside the likes of Paul Tudor Jones (Tudor Investment Corp), and Bruce Kovner (Caxton Associates). And, interestingly enough, Bacon helped get his firm off the ground when Paul Tudor Jones stopped accepting capital from investors and instead turned them to Bacon's firm. Returning 31% annually since inception in 1990, Bacon can be very proud of his flagship fund, Moore Global Investments. But, it doesn't stop there. His returns have shown little correlation to the stock market and low volatility. He is the definition of a risk manager. Bacon credits his risk management skills to the futures markets, where he learned to be sensitive to market action. And, he learned such skills at an early age. While getting his MBA at Columbia, he used his student loan money to trade. And, he lost it all. Clearly, he learned a lesson he would never forget. Such a lesson stuck with him as he worked various jobs in the financial industry before eventually starting his own firm. And, in his first year managing Moore Capital Management, he returned 86%. Bacon strives to identify long running macro trends. While he has a longer-term macroeconomic view, he won't let that stop him from making money by trading around the position in the mean time. If you want to hear some insightful thoughts from Louis Bacon himself, head over to my post on Hedge Fund manager interviews. So, now that we've got a background on Bacon and Moore Capital Management, let's take a quick look at his portfolio highlights.

Keep in mind that this is merely a brief summary of Moore's top holdings. Due to the time sensitive nature of the 13F material, I wanted to get this information posted before the next set of filings come out in November.

Top 20 Holdings by % of portfolio
1. Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Common + Calls - Nearly quadrupled his stake to bring it to his firm's top holding
2. Freeport McMoran (FCX) - Only slightly increased his position
3. Petrohawk (HK) - Massively increased his stake
4. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - Tripled his stake
5. QQQ Trust (QQQQ) - New holding this past quarter
6. Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) - Slightly increased his stake
7. Qualcomm (QCOM) - Massively increased his position
8. Lehman Brothers (LEH) - Increased position by 600% (Market value $100 million at the time)
9. Water Resources ETF (PHO) - No change in position
10. Electronic Arts (ERTS) - Nearly doubled his position
11. Phillip Morris Internation (PM) - New position this past quarter
12. Merrill Lynch (MER) Puts - From 25,000 shares to 2,625,000 shares (Market value $83 million at the time)
13. Google (GOOG) - New position this past quarter
14. Sandridge Energy (SD) - Doubled down on his stake
15. Hewlett Packard (HPQ) - New position this past quarter
16. Max Capital Group (MXGL) - Stayed flat (added literally only 4 shares)
17. Marathon Oil (MRO) - New position this past quarter
18. Sotheby's (BID) - New position this past quarter
19. Coca Cola (KO) - Doubled down on his stake
20. Potash (POT) - Sold off a little over 20% of his position

At the time of the filing, Moore Capital Management's total equity portfolio totalled around $4.4 billion. So, I just want to re-emphasize that since they are a macro fund, they obviously have the majority of their positions in the commodity, currency, futures, or other markets. But, at the same time, they still have a sizable chunk of money in the equity markets.

In terms of major moves, it's quite clear to see that Bacon was very Bullish on natural gas, adding heavily to the likes of Chesapeake (CHK), Petrohawk (HK), and Sandridge (SD). Come the next round of 13F filings, it will be very interesting to see what Bacon did with his natural gas holdings, seeing as how the prices have fallen dramatically. Was he partly responsible for the sell-off, or did he get caught in the downswing? We won't know for sure until November, where we can see just how risk management savvy Bacon really is.

Other notable changes to his portfolio include many new positions started in technology over the past quarter, including The Q's (QQQQ), Google (GOOG), and Hewlett Packard (HPQ). Also, he added to his already existing position in Qualcomm (QCOM).

The last thing I want to point out in Moore Capital Management's portfolio is their massive addition to positions in Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Merrill Lynch (MER). And when I say massive additions, I really do mean massive. Bacon had really miniscule positions in these two names and over this past quarter ratcheted up his stakes hardcore. He increased his position in LEH by 600% and in MER by 10,000%. Assumming he still holds those positions, he is massively underwater in them. Because, after all, Lehman is facing Liquidation, as I just recently wrote about here. But, we won't know what he was trying to pull with these positions until November.

Needless to say, there are some interesting names in this portfolio. But, it will be much more interesting to see what Bacon's done with these holdings come November. We already knew hedge funds (and macro funds in particular) had a rough July, as I noted here. And, it's easy to see why, with the heavy commodity exposure many of them had. What we don't yet know is how they've rebounded (if at all). Overall though, I think Moore Capital Management has some great positions poised to benefit from longer-term running macro themes that we will see unfold in the coming years. Because, after all, Louis Bacon loves focusing on the big picture trends.


Moore Capital Management's full 13F filing listing every position can be found at the SEC.

Writedowns, Losses, and Capital Raised

Amid all the financial chaos, I thought it would be a good idea to post up a simple chart breaking down the financial landscape in terms of writedowns, losses, and capital raised. From Bloomberg, you'll see how institutions are looking in terms of raw numbers: writedowns/losses versus capital raised. One institution in particular I want to point out is HSBC (HBC): $27.4 billion in writedowns and losses, but only $3.9 billion raised. They by far have one of the more lopsided ratios. Now, we obviously know that this simple chart does not tell the whole story, but I thought it was worth highlighting.

(click to enlarge)

Full disclosure: At the time of publication, MarketFolly was short HBC via puts

Warren Buffett's Portfolio Performance

The great folks over at Bespoke Investment Group have a compilation of how Warren Buffett's portfolio holdings are performing this year. Overall, he actually looks to be in pretty good shape relative to the market. Take a gander:

(click to enlarge)

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Lone Pine Capital (Stephen Mandel) Files 13G and Discloses 6.8% Stake in Dolby Labs (DLB)

Filed today in a 13G filing with the SEC, Lone Pine Capital has disclosed a 6.8% stake in Dolby Laboratories (DLB). This is a brand new position, as it was nowhere to be found in their most recent 13F filing where they disclosed their portfolio holdings as of June 30th, 2008. And, if you missed it, you can check out the rest of Lone Pine's holdings from that most recent 13F which I analyzed in full here.

Lone Pine is an $8 Billion fund that has returned over 25% annually ever since its inception in 1997. Why is Mandel worth following you might ask? Well, he served as a consumer/retail analyst for Tiger Management back in the day for legendary investor Julian Robertson. Robertson's proteges/right-hand men have been nicknamed the "Tiger Cubs" and many have started their own funds. So, not only has Mandel learned from one of the best, but he has put up some very solid returns himself. Mandel is well versed in the ways of finding undervalued companies and his funds typically like to sniff out solid companies with good management that are trading below their intrinsic value. Just this past year 1 of his funds was up 34% before fees while another was up 32% before fees. His track record speaks for itself. And, not to mention, he learned from one of the greats in Julian Robertson. However, as I wrote about here, Lone Pine has had a rough 2008, where their Lone Cedar Fund was -5.38% year to date (as of the middle of July '08).

You can view the full 13G filing over at the SEC.

A Discretionary Retailer Trending Higher: Quick Chart

Just wanted to take two seconds in this bloodbath of a day and point out a chart that is trending higher. And, surprisingly enough, it comes from the consumer discretionary sector: Aeropostale (ARO). While ARO might be one of the few discretionary retailers actually performing well in this environment, there are plenty of names that are not. So, set up a pairs trade or just play the channel straight up; your choice. The chart really speaks for itself. Stop out on a downside break of the channel.(click to enlarge)

Donald Coxe Market Thoughts

Donald Coxe of BMO Financial Group (their Global Portfolio Strategist) is out with his Basic Points of September 2008. Donald has repeatedly been right on with his thoughts regarding the macro investment outlook side of things. If for some reason you've never heard of him, then here's your chance to check him out now. The piece in its entirety is linked below (which I highly recommend reading). But, since everyone is pressed for time these days, Prieur du Plessis has done an excellent job of summarizing Don's thoughts. Below is Prieur's summary of Don Coxe's thoughts:

1. The two most important forces in equity markets since July 13th have been powerful strength in financial stocks and pathetic weakness in commodity stocks. Since they have been inversely correlated for more than a year, investors should assume that the commodity stock bear market will continue until the financials roll over. The F&F bailout is merely the second act in a tragedy that has an unknowable number of acts to come.

2. When the financials do roll over, gold and gold mining stocks should move swiftly back into favor. Inflation remains above central bank target levels in the US – and in many other countries across the world. And any return to pronounced weakness among the bank stocks will be strongly bullish for gold.

3. With OPEC’s token production cut failing to impress the markets, oil prices will fall further. It won’t take more than a few days of even 750,000 b/d of production above consumption to drive oil prices down. Conversely, any outbreak of civil strife in Nigeria that affects offshore production could have a sudden upward price impact. We expect oil to trade in a range of roughly $80 a barrel to roughly $130 a barrel next year, but we have no great confidence in that forecast. We are more confident in predicting $150 oil within the next three years, as the next global economic recovery unfolds.

4. Barring an early killing frost, this year’s US corn group will be a barn-buster. What next? Corn is in modest contango for the next two years’ crops. Because contangos are so unusual these days, and because grains have such high producer/consumer participation across the curve, this is to us a sign that farmers and users are believers that high corn prices are here to stay. That means the fertilizer, seed and equipment stocks are cheaper now, relative to forward corn prices, than at almost any time in the past four years.

5. The pullback in oil prices and the dramatic bank rescues should have been enough to send the S&P back into bullish mode. It needs to break 1310 on the upside to take away its bearish condition.

6. The real yield on the Treasury 10-year is now a negative 145 bp. On a two-year hold, this means there could be more endogenous risk in nominal bonds than in most blue-chip non-financial stocks. The rush out of TIPs into Treasurys is doubtless driven by the unwinding of F&F exposures, but the long Treasurys are now seriously overvalued.

7. The biggest near-term upward surprise in commodity prices could be natural gas if (1) the sunspots don’t reappear, and (2) the historic correlations of gas to oil reassert themselves.

8. The Canadian dollar is being hit by the commodity price plunges, deterioration in the trade account, the worsening economic outlook in Central Canada, and the uncertain outlook in the October election. Whether Tories or Liberals win in Ottawa, Canada’s fiscal situation will continue to be superb compared to the US, particularly if Obama wins. We remain very positive on the loonie as an alternative to the greenback.

9. US election campaigns can be excuses for bold acts by foreign adventurers. Although President Bush was a non-person at the Republicans’ Convention after he gave his brief speech by satellite, he’s going to be President for four more months. The world should hope that rogue states think about that before deciding that Washington will be too distracted by the election to do anything about a surprise attack or invasion.

10. We have no clear idea how long it will be before we can look back to today’s prices for commodity stocks and say, “Wow! I wish I’d loaded up then!” We remain certain that day is coming.

A big thank you to Prieur du Plessis over at investmentpostcards.com for presenting such a succinct summary of Coxe's thoughts. And, I highly recommend taking the time to read Mr. Coxe's entire piece as found in his .pdf file, which you can download here. Lastly, another thank you goes out to Commodity News and Mining Stocks for originally posting up the link.

Lehman Brothers Liquidation Looks Likely

Undoubtedly, you already know this news. Lehman Brothers (LEH) will file for bankruptcy protection, as they couldn't seem to sell themselves this weekend. Additionally, Merill Lynch looks like it will be bought out by Bank of America for around $25-30 a share ($29 a share offer being voted on). Lastly, AIG will be restructuring. If you want more info on all this than you can handle, just head to any major financial publication, as the news is all over the place. I'm not here to regurgitate this news. Instead, I want to turn my focus to a way to possibly play this madness. In the event that LEH does liquidate, the following stocks will undoubtedly trade lower. Why, do you ask? Well, because they are some of LEH's top holdings.

The List

• General Electric (GE)

• Pfizer (PFE)

• Target (TGT)

• UBS (UBS)

• Linn Energy (LINE)
  

• GLG Partners (GLG)
  

• Merck (MRK)

• Microsoft (MSFT)

• Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)

• Bank of America (BAC)

• Apple (AAPL)

• Flagstone Reinsurance (FSR)

• Wellpoint (WLP)

• Walmart (WMT)

• Exxon Mobil (XOM)

• United Health Group (UNH)

• Google (GOOG)

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

• Baidu (BIDU)

A few names from the list I want to highlight: Firstly, Bank of America (BAC) has been actively involved in all the talks this weekend and for all intensive purposes it looks as if they'll pick up Merrill Lynch (MER). I think the market sells off BAC simply because MER is not in the best of shape, and it looks like they'll be overpaying for the deal. If MER needs to be rescued, BAC could surely pick them up for much cheaper than where they're trading now. So, BAC could trade lower for this reason (along with the fact that oh yea, they've still got the whole Countrywide Mortgage mess to worry about). Then, if Lehman Brothers liquidates their BAC shares, you can guess where that name is headed: lower.

Secondly, as I wrote about here, Apple (AAPL) isn't looking too hot on the technicals right now. It looks about ready to really breakdown, since it hasn't responded well to support levels. If LEH needs to liquidate their large AAPL position, this only presents more headwinds for AAPL.

Thirdly, Walmart (WMT) appears on this list and I want to point this out for investors who have wanted to get in this name. If LEH liquidates its WMT position, this will present an opportunity for those who want to get long WMT on the thesis of the American consumer trading down for cheaper items, which WMT supplies. I've written about this thesis numerous times, notably here and here. So, watch that name for any major dips. Also, I'd throw Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) as a possible name to buy off of any LEH liquidation weakness. They are firing on all cylinders and their consumer staples line-up works well in this mess of an economy. Keep in mind though, that things undoubtedly will be crazy this week. So, don't rush out and do something stupid. And, if you feel the need, keep it small. There will undoubtedly be opportunities from this. But, this is a huge mess just waiting to unravel. Watch the Volatility Index (VIX), and watch for panic and capitulation. Special thanks to "The Fly" over at ibankcoin.com for posting up this list of LEH top holdings.

Offtopic: Metallica's Death Magnetic

I usually try to stay on-topic here on Market Folly, but very rarely certain events cause me to stray off-topic. So, I'll keep this short and sweet. For those who may be interested, Metallica's new album "Death Magnetic" was released today and it is amazing. They really got back to their roots on this one, while still providing us with some great new style and sounds. If anyone is a guitar player like myself, you've gotta check this stuff out!

My favorite track so far, "All Nightmare Long" is featured below.


Metallica.com

......And now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Brazilian Banks/Asset Managers Continue to Gain Assets

With Brazil's emergence onto the global economy, there have undoubtedly been some excellent investment opportunities. But, most of the gains have been concentrated in the energy and natural resource spaces. As Brazil continues to emerge as a growing nation with a strong economy, I've turned my focus to the next wave of investments to make in Brazil. And, I think it can come from a sector that has been touched on by many before, but has never really garnered the spotlight. I'm talking about Brazilian banks and asset managers. Over the long term, their financial landscape will continue to evolve and the underlying financial firms are poised to benefit, seeing as Brazil has now become a net foreign creditor. Also, due to the booming economy, many Brazilians have started to enjoy new-found wealth and are turning to banks/asset managers looking for a place to put their hard earned money to work.

Institutional Investor has a piece out that discusses how Brazil will see an influx of cash from foreign pension funds. The reason behind this is because the nation's long term foreign currency debt was recently upgraded to investment grade. Also in the article is a quick list of Brazil's biggest money makers. In it, you will notice that some of the mainstream banks that trade on ADR's here in the states are among the biggest asset managers in the country: Banco Bradesco (BBD), Banco Itau (ITU), and Unibanco (UBB). Numerous hedge funds I track here on Market Folly have been in and out of these names, but they have never been major stakes or top 10 holdings. These are larger cap names which could be great long term investments (5-10 years).

And, even more hidden from the limelight are mid-cap Brazilian banks and asset managers. You won't find any of these mid-cap names traded on ADR's here in the states. Instead, you'll have to go directly to Brazil to buy them. Obviously, these names are difficult for the average joe to just invest in. And, they are also riskier investments. Firstly, you have to overcome the barrier of entry and find a way to personally invest in Brazil directly. Secondly, you have the added currency risk. But, nevertheless, they represent an interesting opportunity within Brazil's burgeoning financial landscape.

Individual risks aside, Brazil as a whole also has some risks investors need to be conscious of. Over the past few years, they have been heavily reliant on commodity sales abroad. Should a global economic slowdown present itself, Brazil's growth rate would obviously be in jeopardy. That would be the true test as to whether or not they could diversify their exports enough to protect their long term growth. Having enjoyed low borrowing costs and record commodity prices on exports for nearly five years, Brazil has been on 'easy street.' The question remains, "How will they respond if and when tough times arise?" It's always something to keep in the back of your mind. Additionally, one must be concerned with the Brazilian currency, the Real, which has seen massive appreciation to near its highest levels since 1999. Over the past few years, the central bank has been continually purchasing US Dollars in an attempt to slow further appreciation. Obviously every investment has risks, and its important to understand all the various risks associated with investing in a booming country like Brazil. Stay tuned in the coming weeks, as I am in the midst of completing my research on both the larger cap and mid-cap Brazilian names as I search for prospects for my über long-term portfolio.

Source: Insitutional Investor here and here.

McDonald's (MCD) Continues to Dominate

As I mentioned in my post about a deteriorating consumer environment here, I think McDonald's is shaping up to be an excellent play. Earlier in the year, McDonald's (MCD) was touted as a "weak dollar" play due to their extensive international exposure and the massive currency gains they were posting from the exchange rates worldwide. But, things have changed in six months time. Nowadays, a recently strengthening dollar provides currency headwinds for MCD's global business. But, I do not see this as being a major problem because demand and sales should easily overshadow any and all currency implications.

Why might you ask? The answer is simple: consumers worldwide trading down to "cheap" alternatives. McDonald's is the king of cheap. They are a fast-food chain, after all; with a $1 menu to boot. When consumers are in a pinch, they look to save money anyway they can. And, McDonald's allows them to do just that. As I wrote about here, the US economy is accelerating to the downside. Then, add in the fact that Goldman Sachs thinks half the globe is in a recession. Lastly, you've got the former federal reserve chairman Paul Volcker claiming that growth in the US economy will be the slowest of any decade since the Great Depression, as I noted here. Tough times ahead to say the least. The US consumer is in for a wild ride. So, if you're going to play any consumer stock in such a tough environment, make sure it is a company that deals with necessities. McDonald's provides food, and cheap food at that. Don't buy the rationale? Just take a look at McDonald's most recent quarter.

McDonald's delivered yet another dominant quarter last Tuesday. August sales in the U.S. increased 4.5% compared to an analyst expected 3.5% gain. Sales in the Asian Pacific region gained 10% and an 11.6% gain in Europe compared to analyst expectations of only 6% in Europe. On average, analysts pegged McDonald's at a global increase of 4.7%. McDonald's came in with a 8.5% gain globally. Needless to say, it was a dominant quarter. They are winning cash-strapped consumers over in both the US and Europe. And, their market position in Asia continues to be very profitable. Not to mention, MCD is seeing operating margins of 25.78% and a return on equity of 29.71%, both solid numbers which reflect the strong underlying fundamentals.

People were concerned that economic weakness in Europe would hurt sales. But, I argue the opposite. A weak Economic environment means more people trade down to cheaper alternatives. European consumer confidence is at one of the lowest levels in five years. Their economy is contracting as their consumers face the exact same problems ours do: rising food and fuel prices. In the US, the cost of living rose 5.6% for the year (ended in July). The U.S. Labor Department reports it is the largest jump in 17 years. So, as the cost of living goes up, consumers look to trade down. It's that simple.

And, if you're worried about consumers "shutting down" altogether, then look to go long MCD and hedge your position by buying some puts or by shorting rival discretionary casual dining restaurants such as BJRI or DRI. Those casual dining chains are suffering from rising input costs and slower dining traffic. At any rate, I think MCD is a solid choice going forward. Let's see how it sets up on the technicals. Pulling up a 3 year chart on MCD, we see that it is in a nice long-term uptrend. Every major dip in the name has been a buying opportunity, as you can see below.

(click to enlarge)

Then, zooming in on a closer 6 month time frame, we can see how MCD has been trading recently.

(click to enlarge)

You'll notice it put in a most recent high at around $65/66 and then sold off. That level represents some near-term resistance in the name and you could see some sellers come in as MCD begins to trade back up near those levels as it is doing now. What you'll also notice is that during the months of May, June, and July, MCD was bumping up against severe overhead resistance at around $60/61. This is shown by the lower of the 2 horizontal red lines I've drawn in. You can see it kept bumping up against that resistance level before finally enough buyers came in August to push it through to new highs. After those recent highs, you will see that MCD came back down to that $60/61 level that was previously resistance. And, that level now acts as a support level to the stock as it bounced off those levels, trending back higher. So, in terms of selecting opportune entry, exit, and stop loss points, the chart gives us a pretty clear picture. How you play it is determined by whether or not you are an investor or trader. But, as outlined above, I think McDonald's (MCD) is poised to benefit in the coming months.

Disclosure: marketfolly.com is long MCD

Sources: WSJ, Bloomberg

Technical Analysis: Charts With Solid Risk/Reward

Just wanted to breeze through some charts really quick, since it's been a while. Time for some good old technical analysis. Ok, right to it. BJ's Restaurants. Simply put, this place is a clusterf*ck. They're facing rising input costs and slower dining traffic. As I've written about here and here, the consumer environment just isn't that hot right now. In fact, its accelerating to the downside. So, this place will only get squeezed harder. Their solution? Raise prices faster. Oh, great, that will really get struggling consumers in the door. BJRI is hurting so much for any type of positive news that it was up 9% yesterday on an analyst upgrade. Yes, one upgrade. Well, the good news is that this fluke of a 9% move gives us a low risk opportunity here. Check out the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

As you can see, BJRI used to bounce right off of support at $13.5 way back in April and May. Then, the stock ripped lower. It has already tried to test $13.5 once in August and it failed. Well, it's right back up at those levels again. $13.5 was past support and thus is now future resistance. The analyst upgrade today moved the stock up to a high of $13.62. So, a low risk play here would be to short BJRI at these levels and then place your stop just above the resistance (and the 200 day moving average) at around $14 or so. You can be the judge as to how tight of a stop you want to use here. One thing to note if you want to play this from the short-side: be cautious because the recent move upwards has had some volume behind it. Because, as you've seen yesterday, the slightest bit of positive news can send these consumer related names flying. Conversely, if you do get stopped out, you could just flip your trade to the long side. Because, if BJRI breaks out above its 200 day moving average, as well as above the strong resistance at $13.50, it has the potential to go much higher. Another option would be to just stand on the sidelines to see which way it is going to move and then pile on. The point here is that BJRI has very clear risk/reward in both directions. Watch it and play it however you're comfortable.

Next up, I want to point out the large channel Goldman Sachs (GS) has been trading in for a long while. I meant to post this up a few weeks ago, but I've been so busy that I forgot. Here's the original chart I meant to post up showing the clear support for GS at around $155 and then the resistance at around $200 (you could also make a point for resistance around $190).

(click to enlarge)

Now, take a look at GS currently.

(click to enlarge)

As expected, it bounced right off $155 and traded higher up to $170. The simple play here has been buy GS around $155 and stop out around $145 or so (depending on how tight you want your stop). Then, you turn around and sell GS as it rallies higher into various levels of resistance around $170, $190 or wherever you want to lock in some profits. As you can see, this name has been trading sideways for a while. So, while there might not be a big play here right this moment, keep your eye on it. Eventually, some very favorable risk/reward setups will take place just as they have in the past in this name.

Next, I want to turn to a little series that I like to call: There's no such thing as a triple bottom. First up, we have Companhia de Saneamento (SBS). Now, I actually like this name as a longer term play on Brazil. But, for the time being, you absolutely have to respect the technicals, which point to lower prices. Obviously this presents us with a risk/reward setup. You can either try to catch a falling knife (which I don't really recommend). Or, you can wait until it slices through that past support line and short it down along with the rest of the momentum players. It's up to you. The point is that around $37 or so has served as past support for SBS as it double bottomed back in April of 07 and February of this year. You could get a reflex bounce off that support level. But, since we all know there is no such thing as a triple bottom, it looks like it's heading lower.

(click to enlarge)

The second chart in the "no such thing as a triple bottom" series is Freeport McMoran (FCX). Again, this company is actually a great name to own for the longer term, as valuations have just gotten ridiculously cheap. But, in the mean time, you've got to respect the technicals. Some hedge funds have been forced to sell their shares, while others are merely front-running each other. It's a mess out there and it doesn't look like it will end anytime soon. On the chart, you see that FCX double-bottomed in September of last year and February of this year. Yet again, we're down along those levels of $65. Triple bottoms don't exist so I expect this name to trade even lower to the secondary support level I've drawn in around $60. This is simply another risk/reward setup for you to keep your eye on. These charts are painting an ominous picture right now.

(click to enlarge)

So, what does everyone think about these setups? Are there some you like, some you don't? Would love to see what other people think about these setups. Because, after all, technical analysis is in the eye of the beholder. And, what I see could be completely different than what you see.

Ken Heebner to Start Hedge Fund Wayfarer Capital

Ken Heebner, manager of the renowned CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX) and other mutual funds, is set to start a hedge fund. In a regulatory filing made in August, it was revealed that Heebner is starting a new firm, Wayfarer Capital LP. So far, the fund has raised around $73 million, with Heebner targeting $5 billion for his new fund. Heebner employs a macro investment strategy, trying to capitalize on economic trends. In his mutual funds, Heebner runs a smaller, more concentrated portfolio than most managers. He even short-sells a few names, a tactic normally reserved for hedge funds and the like. But, since he runs mutual funds, he is limited in what he can do on the short side. And, it seems as if Heebner wants more freedom to be able to short and employ some leverage.

Seeing as how mutual funds are typically long-only, you can't blame him. In this type of market, one definitely needs to be hedged as much as possible. His CGM Focus fund returned 80% last year, due to smart bets on energy and resource plays. One of his other funds was up 34%. But, this year, Heebner is faced with tougher times, as his fund sits down around 17% year to date. It has been a wild year for him, to say the least. Earlier in the year, he was up around 16%. Then, he lost nearly 30% over a few months time to land him at his current returns.

Fortune magazine has called him "America's hottest investor," and rightly so. He has returned nearly 27% a year over the past decade with his Focus Fund. I am curious, though, if Heebner's mutual fund will take a back seat to his newly formed hedge fund. Apparently, it has always been his dream to run a hedge fund, and you can bet he'll want to make sure it succeeds. The hedge fund structure will allow him to short much more than his mutual fund ever would, which should allow him to hedge and pursue his macro investment strategy more effectively. Either way, the guy knows what he's doing. And, it's interesting to note that Heebner is set to start his hedge fund during a time when many funds are closing up shop due to poor returns and investor redemptions. Contrarian, to say the least. I'll definitely be keeping my eye on this here at Market Folly.

Source: Bloomberg

Hedge Funds & Alternative Asset Management Industry Aren't What They Used to Be

Roger Ehrenberg is out with a thought provoking piece over on his site, Information Arbitrage. In it, he discusses the tough times facing hedge funds and the simple root of the cause. Here's an excerpt:

"Many recent mega-losses aren't the case of simply taking the long view and getting stung by short-term volatility; this is getting carried out because of either too much leverage (the most prevalent cause of failure) or too much concentration. I had always thought that hedge funds were supposed to hedge, and were designed to generate attractive absolute returns regardless of market conditions. Such thinking is clearly a remnant of bygone days for much of the industry, where managers want the best of all worlds: stable management fees, quarterly performance fees, and the ability to suspend redemptions. There just aren't that many Steinhardts and Robertsons any more. And this is too bad for the industry and its investors."

Definitely check out the rest of his thoughts here.

George Soros on Oil

If you missed it, George Soros talked about oil in his testimony before the US Senate Commerce Committee Oversight Hearing. Read his thoughts here.

Deteriorating Consumer Environment: Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) Evidence

This is just continuing evidence of a lackluster consumer environment. Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) same store receipts were down in August, setting up what I predict will be a downward accelerating consumer environment. Both Citi and Merrill Lynch downgraded ANF on Friday, citing deteriorating sales and increased markdowns. In fact, Citi went as far as to say that they think ANF could trade at its lowest multiple in 5 years. Just something to keep an eye on as you try to balance your portfolios.

Specialty retail is getting hit hard (and will continue to get hit hard) as effects from the housing market, consumer credit crunch, and inflation take a toll on consumer's pocketbooks. Abercrombie is known for its upscale niche within the teen segment, often selling more expensive items than the likes of competitors Aeropostale (ARO), who seems to be doing alright in this environment. So, look for consumers to "trade down" in this environment.

In any given sector, I like to take a balanced approach and often times am market neutral. For instance in retail, being long the likes of Walmart (WMT) or various other discounters who sell essentials (food, gas, toiletries, medicine) is very appealing to me. Then, you take the other side by going short discretionary retailers, such as ANF. Long cheap and/or necessary items; Short expensive and/or discretionary items. The same logic can be applied to food by going long the likes of McDonald's (MCD) for the "cheap" factor (although they might see some slight headwinds due to their strong international presence and a rising US dollar). Then, shorting casual dining restaurants such as BJ Restaurants (BJRI) or Darden Restaurants (DRI), who are feeling the pinch of rising input costs and slower dining traffic.

The main point to take away here is that we all know the consumer is strapped for cash. However, I think too many people are counting on a recovery. With vast evidence of the housing market accelerating to the downside, I just don't see how that is possible. Add in the consumer credit crunch and the inflationary pressures consumers are seeing on everything they buy, and you've got a recipe for a very thrifty consumer.

Apple (AAPL) at Make or Break Point

Chart says it all. Major bounce or major breakdown coming. Not to mention, they've got the "Let's Rock" event schedule for tomorrow, where everyone is expecting new iPods to be unveiled. Typically, Apple (AAPL) has been a "sell the news" type of stock. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Either way, an opportunity either long or short is setting up in this name. Watch the $155 level.

(click to enlarge)

www.marketfolly.com is LIVE!

Hey everyone, just wanted to announce that the site's new url is now live: http://www.marketfolly.com/

The old url (marketfolly.blogspot.com) will automatically forward you to the new address, www.marketfolly.com. So, you don't technically need to update your bookmarks or links. But, I would appreciate it if you did.

If there are any kinks or errors on the page in the next day or two, I apologize. Everything is in the midst of switching over and so there might be a glitch here or there. But, for the most part, everything else seems to be working just great. Rest assured that everything will be working perfectly fine in the next few days! Also, all of the feeds should still be working as well, so you don't need to do anything there either.

Exciting times here at Market Folly. Thanks for your support and make sure to spread the word!

http://www.marketfolly.com/

Fannie/Freddie Bailout & Unemployment Rate

Undoubtedly, you've heard this news already. But, I am simply re-posting it to stress the type of environment we are in. The Unemployment rate has now hit 6.1%, the highest in five years. While the Fannie/Freddie saga has ended, people seem to have already forgotten about the unemployment rate and the fact that we still have tough times ahead. But, the market likes to get all giddy on any glimmer of hope. The root of the "pooring of America" stems from the horrid housing market. And, until it corrects, we are in for tough times. So, while the indexes are up big and we should start off this week in positive territory, I'm still cautious in the near-term. I still believe this is merely a small rally within the context of a broad bear market. The credit crisis is a whole nother animal, which only complicates the situation.

(click to enlarge)

The descending channel (green lines) tells the story. Watch the tape. Barry Ritholtz has an excellent post up over on his blog where he talks about weekend bailouts and the subsequent reactions. He asks,

"How many Sunday press releases is it going to take to save the financial system from ruin? If you’re are keeping score at home, this is now the sixth Sunday night/Monday morning press release in 14 months aimed at saving the financial system. Consider the recent history of these weekend rescues:

• August 2007, when the credit crunch was officially recognized by the Fed, when they cut the discount rate.

• December 2007, with the announcement of the TAF and other credit facilities;

• January 2008 Soc Gen panic, and a 75 bps emergency cut;

• March 2008 with the Bear Stearns bailout.

• July 2008 the first Fannie/Freddie rescue attempt

• September 2008 the actual Bailout of Fannie/Freddie."

Head over to The Big Picture to check out his thoughts/takeaways from the situation. Lastly, I will leave you with an excellent quote from David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management:

"All rallies over the past year have been based on the idea that we had seen the worst in whatever was ailing the market at the time – I.E. the credit crisis or the oil spike or the economic slowdown in the U.S. But unfortunately, after the requisite rallies, the light at the end of the tunnel has more often than not turned out to be an oncoming train."

Unemployment Data: CNNMoney
Weekend Bailouts: The Big Picture
David Moenning's Thoughts: StreetInsider

Transocean (RIG) Added to Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List

I forgot to post this up on Friday since there was so much going on. Amidst all that news, we saw that Transocean (RIG) was added to Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List. They removed Halliburton (HAL) and swapped RIG in its place. Goldman's new price target on RIG is $178 due to its tie to oil, where they see strong long term fundamentals (obviously).

I definitely agree with them on this call as I believe oil will face big supply/demand issues as we go forward many years into the future. And, I believe Transocean (RIG) is an excellent proxy for this (besides just owning oil in the commodities markets or the etf USO for the long term). The reason I say that is because there is an increasing demand for deepwater rigs. As evidenced by Petrobras' desire to lock up nearly 80% of offshore rigs, the demand for RIG's services is very strong. As oil companies shift from shallow water searches to deep water finds, RIG becomes all the more attractively positioned.

The only problem I have with RIG right now is the technicals. The chart looks horrible right now and the name looks to be breaking down. I've drawn a line in the sand at $120. If RIG can hold onto this level (typically past support), then I think its safe to enter RIG here. But, if it begins to trade lower yet again, I think it would be safer to stay away as it will have broken down on the technicals. RIG trading lower is a real possibility simply due to the fact that it is tied to the price of crude. And, since crude has been selling off recently, it doesn't look good. As crude approaches the very important psychological level of $100 a barrel, things could get interesting. Add in the speculation regarding hedge fund liquidations and you've got a recipe for a wild ride. The point is that both crude oil and RIG are around pretty significant levels in terms of technicals. As you can see from the chart below, $120 has typically been an area of support for RIG. If it breaks through this support level, it looks to be heading lower.

(click to enlarge)

This is a simple case of "trade the perception, not the reality." In reality, Transocean (RIG) is poised to rake in major dollars as their new rigs come out of production down the road. And, they are constantly seeing rising day rates on their existing deepwater rigs. But, everyone seems to be concerned with the "here and now" and thus the technicals are on the verge of a major breakdown. So, you've got to respect the action and step aside if you get stopped out below $120. Long term, this should be an excellent name to own. So, if you're one of those Buffett-buy-and-hold investors, then go for it. I am simply painting a picture for those who like to take a more active role in their positions.

Fundamentally, RIG is one of the best buys out there. Their trailing PE of 7.8 and forward PE of 7.4 is very compelling, especially considering that they trade at some of the cheapest multiples in the drilling sector, despite being one of the largest companies. They have a PEG ratio of 0.55, indicating they are primed for earnings growth. Where the company really becomes attractive though, is in its operating margins and returns on equity. I like to call this the "bread and butter" of any given company. With operating margins of 46.17% and a return on equity of 38.54%, Transocean is cranking out some of the highest numbers out there. Their merger with Global Santa Fe has certainly paid off in terms of increasing their fleet and extending their dominant market share. The only real negative with Transocean fundamentally would be its massive debt. They currently have $976 million in cash and over $15.2 billion in debt. The majority of this debt is from financing the merger of Global Santa Fe and Transocean and a special dividend that the company paid shareholders upon completion of the merger. So, the massive debt load is a concern. But, when you think about how much money the company is making, it becomes less of a worry.

Fundamentally, RIG looks very strong. But, you've got to worry about oil too since this name is tied to the price fluctuations of the underlying commodity. If we are indeed seeing a global slowdown, then the price of oil will obviously suffer, affecting RIG's shares in a negative manner. Still though, RIG remains attractive due to their dominant market share and positioning, their rising day rates, the rising demand for their deepwater rigs, and the fact that they have many new rigs scheduled to be completed in the coming years. This is a great long term buy (3-5 years +). But, if you want to potentially save yourself some money in the near term, watch the $120 level as the technicals have really dictated this volatile and whacky market as of late. As long as you've got a stop just below $120, call it good. Or, you can take the Buffett-buy-and-hold approach with this name, as they stand to benefit over the long haul.

Source: StreetInsider

Half the Globe in Recession? Goldman Sachs Thinks So

A few weeks old, but still relevant. Some nice weekend reading here.

Clarium Capital (Peter Thiel) Down in August: Another Hedge Fund Update

Getting tons of news today so will get right to the point:

"Clarium Capital Management LLC, the $7 billion hedge-fund firm founded by Peter Thiel, fell about 13 percent in August, its biggest monthly loss, as it bet against the U.S. dollar."

"Before August, Clarium's biggest monthly loss was in March 2004 when it fell 11.4 percent, according to an investor letter."

You'll recall I covered Clarium in my hedge fund 13F analysis series here. And, this isn't the first tough month for Clarium. As I posted here, Clarium also was down 6.8% for the month of July. So, year to date, a rough estimate would now put them at +32% year to date. I'm also hearing they're almost completely out of commodities now. So, yet another macro fund gets its ass handed to them, what else is new? Will be interesting to see if Clarium shifts from commodities to equities, as the equity portion of their portfolio is typically minimal at best (and by minimal, I mean ridiculously tiny: 1% or less of total assets under management).

Source: Bloomberg

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker Sends Ominous Message

The former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, is out with some decisively negative commentary. And no, I'm not just talking about some off hand comments about how the economy sucks. He is straight up ominous. A quote from Mr. Volcker:

"Growth in the economy in this decade will be the slowest of any decade since the Great Depression, right in the middle of all this financial innovation.''

A powerful statement that could very well end up being true. The entire Bloomberg article summarizing Volcker's thoughts is definitely worth checking out.

Hedge Fund Year to Date Returns (Paulson, D.E. Shaw, SAC, & More)

Well, we recently got an update as to just how poorly hedge funds are performing year to date. Don't get me wrong, there are of course some standout performers. But, for the most part, they are taking it on the chin. So, if you are an individual investor getting your ass handed to you in this market.... you're not alone. Even some of the best and brightest in the game are right there with you. Hell, you're probably even outperforming some of these funds. Courtesy of the Wall Street Journal, we get a look at many notable hedge fund's performance year to date.

The Standout Performers

• $35 billion Paulson & Co: +18% ytd
• $26.3 billion Brevan Howard: +16% ytd
• $37.1 billion D.E. Shaw: +8% ytd
• $30.9 billion Bridgewater Associates: +6% ytd
• $33.3 billion Och-Ziff Capital: +0.5% ytd
• $16 billion Winston Capital: +10% ytd
• $10 billion Caxton Associates: +5% ytd
• $17 billion Tudor Investment Corp: +3% ytd
• $16 billion SAC Capital: +1.5% ytd
  

The Not-so Standout Performers

• $49.3 billion Highbridge/JP Morgan (Multistrat fund): -2% ytd
• $33 billion Farallon Capital: -6% ytd
• $23.7 billion GLG Partners: -14% ytd
• $13 billion Eton Park Capital: -1% ytd
• $19 billion Citadel Investment Group: -6% ytd
• $18 billion Lone Pine Capital: -8.5% ytd
• $12.5 billion TPG-Axon: -11% ytd
• $8 billion Cantillon Capital: -12% ytd
• $15 billion Atticus Capital: -25% ytd

The Slightly Mixed Bag

• $29.5 billion Renaissance Technologies: One of their funds is -1% ytd, while their signature Medallion fund is +40% ytd
• $26.9 billion Goldman Sachs: One of their funds is -2% ytd, while their Global Alpha fund is +17% ytd

And, according to Hedge Fund Research, Inc., hedge funds are having their worst year since 1990 (when they started tracking). They show that the average hedge fund is -3.43% ytd compared to -12.65% in the S&P500 and +1.05% in the Lehman Bros Bond Index.

So, results all across the board. Interesting to note though, that Atticus Capital is down 25% year to date. Just yesterday, there were rumors circulating that they were liquidating as I wrote about here. Tim Barakett, the founder of Atticus, came out and denied those rumors. The reason for such a large decline is pretty easy to pinpoint. As I've written about before, their portfolio had very heavy exposure to the likes of Freeport McMoran (FCX), Mastercard (MA), and NYSE Euronext (NYX); all of which have really been beaten down badly as of late. So, the rumors of liquidation weren't completely illogical, seeing as how the fund is down big this year. But, I want to reiterate again that they have denied the rumors that they were liquidating.

On another note, the algorithm master Jim Simons and his Renaissance Technologies Medallion fund are up big this year; very big. That's all I can really say about that, seeing as his entire operation is one giant quant enigma. D.E. Shaw & Co, fellow quant masters, are doing decently, up 8% year to date in this horrid tape.

Lone Pine Capital, managed by Stephen Mandel, (whom I frequently cover here on the blog), isn't having the best of years, but isn't getting slaughtered like Atticus is. Lone Pine is down a little over 8% year to date. You can view their most recent portfolio holdings as I analyzed here.

The "Commodities Corp Offspring," Paul Tudor Jones and Bruce Kovner have been playing the commodities markets smartly with their macro funds it seems. Jones' Tudor Investment Corp is up 3% ytd, while Kovner's Caxton Associates is up 8% ytd. With the wild swings in the commodities markets claiming the life of the Ospraie fund, I'm sure Tudor Jones and Kovner are happy to turn a profit. This year has been one wild ride, to say the least.

And, lastly, John Paulson is still kicking ass and taking names; up 18% year to date. You'll remember that Paulson correctly pegged the subprime crisis last year and profited handsomely from it.

So, there you have it. See how you stack up against some of the most revered names in the game. Some are dominating, while others are getting dominated. Welcome to the bear market.

Source: WSJ

Citadel Aims to Start $1 Billion Macro Hedge Fund Managed By Kaveh Alamouti

Ahh, the endless cycle of hedge fund start-ups and failures. In contrast to my post earlier post about The Ospraie Fund blowing up here, I bring you news of a new fund emerging onto the scene. Ken Griffin's Citadel Investment Group is set to roll out their latest hedge fund, a $1 billion Global Macro Fund (pending funding, of course). Kaveh Alamouti, former employee of Macro giant Louis Bacon's Moore Capital Mangement, is set to run the fund.

We are slowly starting to see the next segway of "spinoffs" of apprentices from their masters. Years ago, Julian Robertson of Tiger Management helped mold some of the brightest minds on Wall Street, many of whom went on to start their own funds. The 'Tiger Cubs' as they are known, include greats such as John Griffin (Blue Ridge Capital), Stephen Mandel (Lone Pine Capital), Lee Ainslie (Maverick Capital), and Andreas Halvorsen (Viking Global Investors), all of whom I track here on the blog. The same can be said of the Commodities Corporation, which produced the likes of Bruce Kovner (Caxton Associates), Louis Bacon (Moore Capital Management), and Paul Tudor Jones (Tudor Investment Corp).

Now, we are starting to see these former proteges turned legends take on the role of their predecessors as they now watch their own employees/proteges emerge to manage their own funds. It's a beautifully endless cycle. Already, as I wrote about here, David Stemerman left Lone Pine Capital to start up Conatus Capital and Anand Parekh left Citadel to form Highliner Investment Group. And, as mentioned above, Kaveh Alamouti left Moore Capital Management to head up Citadel's new global macro fund. In this new spawning of "offspring," there will undoubtedly be picks of the litter, and then there will be runts. Only time will reveal who of them could possibly become the next Paul Tudor Jones or Julian Robertson. I will be watching with interest as I try to find the rising stars of tomorrow.

Source: Bloomberg

Qualcomm (QCOM): Adding on Major Dips for Long Term Portfolio

I just wanted to highlight the weakness we've been seeing in technology recently. In mid-August, the Nasdaq was easily outperforming the S&P500. But, as we've slid into September, technology has given back its gains. I've been waiting patiently to add to some tech positions that are typically high-flyers. And, it looks as if that patience is finally going to pay off, as I can finally start to get back into some names I've been looking to add to my core long term positions. As I wrote about here, you've got to be prepared for inflationary or deflationary investment scenarios. While it's still unclear whether we're heading straight towards a deflationary environment, it never hurts to be prepared. At any rate, in that post, I highlighted how in both an inflationary or deflationary scenario, it usually pays off to be long technology. So, with that in mind, my longer term portfolio is looking to add to tech names to hold for the long term.

I bought Qualcomm (QCOM) back in June as I detailed here, and it has paid off nicely. I took some profits, decreasing my position size on the most recent gap-up in July (see chart below). And, I've been waiting forever for QCOM to start dipping back down to fill the gap to re-add what I sold. So, we're finally getting that dip and I'll be looking to buy QCOM for the long term at around $48 and then again at $44 if it trades that low. I like it at $48 because it offers a decent level of support. And, not to mention, I initially bought QCOM back in June at around those levels. So, you can bet I'm more than happy to add back at that level. I've got a secondary limit order around $44, which is right around both the 200 day moving average and a nice level of recent support. Then, for safety, my stop will be placed a point or two below that last limit order, below the 200 day moving average. Because, if that area is taken out, the stock is headed much lower as it will have violated its solid uptrend.

(click to enlarge)

It's not quite to my first limit order yet, but it's getting there. There have been a few negative catalysts recently which have started to send the stock lower, and I'm happy to see it happen! Seriously, I've been waiting to re-add to this position forever it seems. Yesterday, as StreetInsider detailed, Goldman Sachs removed QCOM from its Conviction Buy List. And, the day prior, QCOM's CEO was on CNBC saying, "We're seeing some evidence there's a lengthening of replacement cycles." Which, to put it plainly, means that people are putting off buying new cell phones. This near-term weakness was fully expected, seeing as how the US and other parts of the world have slowed recently. So, I will use this near-term weakness as an opportunity to start building up my position for the long term. Because, as I said before, going long technology fits both my inflationary and deflationary investment scenario models. I've picked Qualcomm simply because they're dominant in their industry and continue to perform. And, not to mention, QCOM is definitely a 'hedge fund favorite,' meaning that tons of funds have a large position in the name. As I wrote about here, Maverick Capital has a large position in the name; as does Lone Pine Capital, which I wrote about here. It's always reassuring to see respected funds with large positions in a name you follow, because undoubtedly their teams have done more research on the name combined than I most likely could ever do alone.

So, that sums it up. I will exit the name if my pre-determined stop gets taken out, or if I see a material shift in their business, which would affect their long term ability to meet estimates. But, I will definitely be looking at the tech sell-off as a place to try and establish longer term positions

More Hedge Fund Liquidation Rumors

Well, it certainly feels like funds are liquidating, doesn't it? After hearing news that the Ospraie Fund was closing its doors yesterday, concern mounted that they wouldn't be the last to do so. And, today rumors were swirling that $14 billion hedge fund Atticus Capital (whom we've covered here on the blog) was liquidating. Not so, claims Tim Barakett, Atticus' founder. Barakett says, "We're certainly not liquidating. In fact we have a large net cash position and are looking for opportunities to invest capital." So, Atticus denies the rumors. And, while they personally might be safe, some other funds most certainly are not. Its hard to believe that Ospraie would be the only fund to blow up in this big mess. The only reason I bring this up is because more liquidations = the market heading even lower.

Source: WSJ

Hedge Fund Tracking: BP Capital's 13F (T. Boone Pickens)

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here).

Time to continue the Hedge Fund tracking series! If you've missed them, I've already covered Jeffrey Gendell's Tontine Partners here, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital here, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital here, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital here, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital here, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital here. Next up, we have BP Capital. With all the commotion surrounding energy these days, it never hurts to track an energy focused hedge fund ran by none other than Boone Pickens. If you are unfamiliar with Pickens, he is an energy maverick and his fund returned 300% in 2005. He is a big advocate of Peak Oil Theory and runs an energy-centric hedge fund based in Dallas, Texas. Although he typically holds numerous positions in oil, he is also big on alternative energy (except ethanol) and has numerous holdings there as well. He most recently advocated a large natural gas position and has additionally made a big bet on wind energy. Some of his thoughts can be seen here from one of my posts. And, if you didn't know, he's pushing for energy independence with his Pickens Plan.

So, now that we've got a little background on Boone and BP Capital, let's see what they were up to. The following are BP Capital's current holdings as of June 30th 2008, as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. The positions in this most recent 13F were compared to last quarter's 13F and here are the changes made to their portfolio:

New Positions:
BPZ Resources (BZP): 350,000 shares. This position is 0.48% of BP's portfolio.
EOG Resources (EOG): 322,266 shares. This position is 1.9% of BP's portfolio.
Tenaris (TS): 1,106,394 shares. This position is 3.88% of BP's portfolio.
Devon Energy (DVN): 845,946 shares. This position is 4.79% of BP's portfolio.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 1,838,129 shares. This position is 5.7% of BP's portfolio.


Added to:
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 8.7% of their portfolio.
Transocean (RIG): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 8% of their portfolio.
Suncor (SU): Increased position by 105.7% (due to 2:1 stock split). Now 7% of their portfolio.
Schlumberger (SLB): Increased position by 11.6%. Now 6.5% of their portfolio.
Halliburton (HAL): Increased position by 65.7%. Now 6.1% of their portfolio.
Denbury Resources (DNR): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 5.4% of their portfolio.
Weatherford (WFT): Increased position by 250%. Now 4.5% of their portfolio.
XTO Energy (XTO): Increased position by 66.66%. Now 3.85% of their portfolio.
Talisman Energy (TLM): Increased position by 19.8%. Now 3.78% of their portfolio.
ABB (ABB): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 3.65% of their portfolio.
Jacobs Engineering (JEC): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 3.55% of their portfolio.
Sandridge Energy (SD): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 3.2% of their portfolio.
Fluor (FLR): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 2.75% of their portfolio.
Foster Wheeler (FWLT): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 2.57% of their portfolio.
Shaw Group (SGR): Increased position by 17.6%. Now 2.34% of their portfolio.
Chevron (CVX): Increased position by 2.8%. Now 2.11% of their portfolio.
Dresser Rand (DRC): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 1.79% of their portfolio.
McMoran Exploration (MMR): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 1.35% of their portfolio.
KBR (KBR): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 1.05% of their portfolio.
Greenbrier Companies (GBX): Increased position by 2.88%. Now 0.56% of their portfolio.


Reduced Positions:
none


Removed Positions (Positions BP sold out of completely):
Titanium Metals (TIE)


Positions with no change:
InterOil Corp (IOC): 1.3% of the portfolio
Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE): 0.2% of the portfolio


Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. Occidental Petroleum (OXY): 8.7% of the portfolio
2. Transocean (RIG): 8% of the portfolio
3. Suncor (SU): 7% of the portfolio
4. Schlumberger (SLB): 6.5% of the portfolio
5. Halliburton (HAL): 6.1% of the portfolio
6. Chesapeake Energy (CHK): 5.7% of the portfolio
7. Denbury Resources (DNR): 5.4% of the portfolio
8. Devon Energy (DVN): 4.79% of the portfolio
9. Weatherford Intl (WFT): 4.5% of the portfolio
10. Tenaris (TS): 3.88% of the portfolio

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Breakdown: T. Boone Pickens didn't do a whole lot of selling. In fact, he only made one sale: Titanium Metals (TIE), which he completely sold out of. But, in terms of selling... that's it. He didn't reduce any of his other positions at all. Whether he was hoarding cash or funding other purchases with his sale of TIE, who knows. But, what we do know, is that he was out adding various new positions and boosting stakes in current holdings. In terms of new holdings, Boone started some big positions in Tenaris (TS), Devon (DVN), and Chesapeake (CHK). All three positions were large enough to land in the top 10 of portfolio holdings after just being added last quarter. In terms of adding to existing holdings, Boone was adding heavily to XTO Energy (XTO), and Weatherford (WFT). He boosted his positions in XTO by 66% and in WFT by 250%. His top three holdings are Transocean (RIG), Occidental (OXY), and Suncor (SU).

The rest of additions T. Boone made are really minor. For instance, he added to a myriad of positions, increasing practically every other remaining position by around 2.8%. Don't try to make sense of this, because he did the exact same thing last quarter as I showed in the previous 13F update I wrote about BP here. Basically, it looks as if Boone has some spare cash laying around and he's slowly but surely easing into positions by adding to them by 2.8% each quarter. So, I think it makes sense to put more emphasis on the positions he has massively added to like the ones I highlighted in the paragraph above. But, at the same time, I think it's worth mentioning the various other names he seems to be slowly building a core position in over time.

That's really it concerning BP Capital's portfolio. Remember that this is an energy centric hedge fund and they undoubtedly have positions in the actual commodities markets themselves. And, we can't see these positions. Since the 13F filings we track are done through the SEC, they only track equities traded on the stock exchanges. The funds are not required to report holdings in the currency, commodity, or futures markets. So, keep in mind this is only the equity portion of BP's portfolio.

Eric Bolling Says Buy Dips in U.S. Dollar, Wait on Energy

Eric Bolling, notable commodities trader and formerly "The Admiral" on CNBC's Fast Money is out today with some very simple advice: Trade smaller. When markets get crazy and people start taking losses, they tend to want to increase their position sizes, attempting to re-coup losses. Often times that decision turns out for the worse. So, keep things small. Cash is always a big ally in this kind of market.

Also, he mentioned he was still bullish on the U.S. Dollar and will be buying any dips, as he notes it has broken out on a multiyear basis (play it by getting long UUP). And, consequently, he feels there is still more room to the downside in energy, as various funds and traders continue to unwind positions.

You can read his thoughts here.

Hedge Fund Losses Continue: Ospraie Fund Closes

As I've detailed here and here, July was a rough month for hedge funds... or anyone for that matter. Just as commodities were responsible for handsome gains in the first half of the year, they came back to bite many a fund in the collective ass. Yesterday, we got word after market close that the Ospraie Fund was set to close after posting a 13% loss in the month of July. And, August was even worse, where they lost 26.7%. Year to date, they were down 38%. Needless to say, it's easy to see why they had to close up shop.

The Ospraie Fund, overseen by Dwight Anderson, was seeing 18% annual returns from 1999 to 2006. And, it only took a few major mis-steps in commodities to make it all come crashing down. This just goes to show that everyone is vulnerable to the volatility and crazyness we've seen in the markets this year. All it takes is one big mistake and your established track record goes flying out the window (even if it was only 5 years worth). Anderson is notable because he spent time at both Julian Robertson's Tiger Management and Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp before starting Ospraie. As I wrote about here, his old employer Tudor Investment Corp has steered clear of disaster thus far. Scoreboard: Master 1, Apprentice 0. This just goes to show that despite working for and learning from some of the best in the business, everyone is human and everyone makes mistakes. And, in this case, big mistakes. These days, it seems as if hedge funds are so obsessed with short-term outperformance that they will do anything to succeed. "Jack up leverage, throw risk management out the window, do whatever it takes." Maybe after it's all said and done, funds will have learned their lesson and will stop placing massive bets in hopes of home runs. Probably not. Greed and fear dominate markets.

Yesterday, we saw commodities get hammered all across the board. Now you know what a possible hedge fund liquidation feels like. Most likely, Ospraie was liquidating their positions in order to return money (what's left of it anyways) to investors. I have a feeling this won't be the last big fund to close its doors as volatility in the markets (and specifically the commodity markets) continues.

For more on the story, head on over to Trader Mark's FundMyMutualFund.com. He's summed up the saga in satirical fashion here. Or, if you just want the plain-jane news stories, head here.

Todd Harrison Talks Dollar and Oil

Great brief interview by Aaron Task over at Yahoo Tech Ticker from last week. Todd Harrison (Minyanville.com) thinks the Dollar has begun a sustainable rally. And, he also believes $110 is major support for oil while $130 is major resistance. And, that becomes all the more important seeing as how Oil is down $7 today and is now below that $110 threshold. Hear all his thoughts here.

New Month, New Site Design

Hey, just wanted to say that the site update is complete and the new template is up and running. Thanks for your patience over the weekend as I sorted through everything. I think it gives the site a 'fresher' look. The response thus far has been positive and I'd love any and all feedback. (Especially if you really hate it). After all, you're the ones reading it!

The updated Market Folly

Under Construction

Just wanted to give a heads up that the blog is under construction. I'm sampling numerous custom templates and as a result things will look screwed up until I get everything finalized in the next few days. Thanks for your patience.

Delinquencies Still Rising

(click to enlarge)

I'll let the picture do the talking here. Taken from Calculated Risk, we see continued rising delinquencies across the board in Residential Real Estate, Commercial Real Estate, and Consumer Credit cards.

How to play it:
- Short Commercial Real Estate (short CBG, short GGP, long SRS)
- Short Credit Card Companies (short COF, short DFS)
- Short banks with lots of leverage, lots of derivative exposure, and lots of residential/commercial real estate exposure (short HBC, WM)

One caveat with all those picks: You've got to monitor your positions like a hawk. The slightest bit of positive news can send these things skyrocketing due to short covering. Use stops, use your brain, and be swift.

Full disclosure: At the time of publication, MarketFolly was short COF, CBG, WM, GGP, HBC via puts