Friday, December 5, 2008

Holiday Gift Ideas: Financial Edition

Last week, we highlighted some Holiday Sales & Deals (Financial Edition) on some bargains for investors and traders. This week, we're turning our focus to a Holiday Wishlist: Financial Edition. With the holidays upon us, we figured it'd be a good idea to toss out some good gift ideas for that savvy investor or trader your know. Or, just for yourself hah.

To the list!

Trading Hardware/Software

  • Samsung SyncMaster 2253BW 22-inch LCD Monitor. If you're in the markets, you can never have enough screen real-estate for charts, 10Q's, streaming quotes... you name it. Samsung are some of the best screens out there and this 22-inch monitor will get the job done for you. Heck, pick up two of them for the dual-screen setup. (Or, if you need even bigger, go with the Samsung 24-inch LCD Monitor). Dual or Tri-screen is the way to go, I'm telling you. I know I'll never go back to just one monitor.
  • Asus Eee Netbook for checking up on the market while you're on the road. Full specs: Asus Eee PC 900HA 8.9 inch Netbook (1.6 GHz Intel ATOM N270 Processor, 1 GB Ram, 160 GB Hard Drive, Windows XP Home) Color: Black.
  • Apple MacBook Air for those who prefer Apple. Check the markets while travelling with this ultra-lightweight laptop. Full Specs: 13.3 Inch, 1.6 GHz Intel Core2Duo Processor, 2 GB Ram, 80 GB Hard Drive, Color: Silver.
  • Blackberry Storm. Keep up with the markets with the new touchscreen Blackberry. Or, if you're not a fan of touchscreens, then go with the all-new Blackberry Bold.
  • TradingSolutions technical analysis. Advanced technical analysis trading software for all you traders out there.

Books

Newspapers


Magazines

DVDs / Bluray

Also, if you missed them, make sure to check out our post on Holiday Deals: Financial Edition, and our Investing & Trading Recommended Reading List for some more gift ideas.


Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker Video

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker sat down to talk with Charlie Rose back in March. I had missed this video and wanted to pass it on. Volcker is easily one of the few individuals who has been speaking any kind of sense throughout all of this. And, we thought it was appropriate to refresh people's memories, seeing how he will play a role on Obama's economic team.


Thursday, December 4, 2008

Hedge Fund Tracking: Daniel Loeb's Third Point - 13F Filing Q3 2008

This is the 3rd Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here. We've already covered Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital,Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital, John Paulson's Paulson & Co, and David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital. We've also already covered a few of the 'Tiger Cub' portfolios in our hedge fund tracking series, including Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, and Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global. Next up, we have Daniel Loeb's Third Point LLC. Third Point is a $4.5 billion activist and value based hedge fund. While Third Point is technically an activist fund, Loeb often has numerous passive investments as well. Loeb's firm was -10.3% for October and is now -26.9% year-to-date, which we noted in our October hedge fund performance update. Before beginning, its probably worthwhile to see Third Point's 2nd quarter portfolio update, so you can get a sense as to what positions they're building as core holdings.

The following were Third Point's long equity, note, and options holdings as of September 30th, 2008 as filed with the SEC.


New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS)
Lorillard (LO)
Anheuser Busch (BUD)
Rohm & Haas (ROH)
CVS Caremark (CVS)
Hewlett Packard (HPQ)
Wendys (WEN)
Epicor Software (EPIC)
UST (UST)
Verigy (VRGY)
Dineequity (DIN)
Merrill Lynch (MER)
Heckmann Corp WTS (HEK-WS)
Epicor Software Corp (EPIC) 2.375% Note 5/1
Heckmann Corp (HEK)
Amedisys Inc (AMED) Puts
EDCI Holdings (EDCI)
Stream Global (OOO-WS)
JB Hunt (JBHT)
Avi Biopharma (AVII)
Citigroup (C) Puts


Added to (Positions they already owned but added shares to)
Orient Express Hotels (OEH): Increased by 242%
Telephone and Data (TDS): Increased by 168%
Tibco Software (TIBX): Increased by 103%
Teradata (TDC): Increased by 74%
Phoenix Companies (PNX): Increased by 58%
Exco Resources (XCO): Increased by 49%
Target (TGT): Increased by 19%


Some Reduced Positions (Positions they sold some shares of - note not all sales listed)
Covidien (COV): Reduced position by 67%
Enpro (NPO): Reduced position by 55%
Plains Exploration (PXP): Reduced position by 44%
Time Warner (TWX): Reduced position by 44%
Meadwestvaco (MWV): Reduced position by 42%
GLG Partners (GLG): Reduced position by 36%
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO): Reduced position by 35%
Leap Wireless (LEAP): Reduced position by 31%
Flow International (FLOW): Reduced position by 15.6%


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Mastercard (MA)
Clear Channel (CCO)
Questar (STR)
Microsoft (MSFT)
BHP Billiton (BHP)
Energy XXI (EXXI)
Public Service Enterprise (PEG)
AK Steel (AKS)
Sandridge (SD)
St Mary Land & Exploration (SM)
Petrohawk (HK)
Chesapeake (CHK)
Cabot (COG)
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)
Horsehead (ZINC)
Safeway (SWY)
Global BPO Services Corp (OOO.U)
Comstock (CRK)
XTO Energy (XTO)
Starwood (HOT)
Orion Marine (OMGI)
American Superconductor (AMSC)
Sirf Technology (SIRF)
Motorcar Parts (MPAA)
Abraxas Petroleum (AXAS)
Nustar Group (NSH)
Loral Space and Comm (LORL)
Entertainment Dist Co
Massey Energy (MEE)


Top 20 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

  1. Exco (XCO): 6.6% of portfolio
  2. Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS): 5.4% of portfolio
  3. Phoenix Companies (PNX): 5% of portfolio
  4. Plains Exploration (PXP): 4.9% of portfolio
  5. Lorillard (LO): 4.7% of portfolio
  6. Teradata (TDC): 4.7% of portfolio
  7. Leap Wireless (LEAP): 4.1% of portfolio
  8. Time Warner (TWX): 3.8% of portfolio
  9. Tibco Software (TIBX): 3.3% of portfolio
  10. SPDR S&P 500 (SPY): 3.2% of portfolio
  11. Anheuser Busch (BUD): 3.1% of portfolio
  12. Telephone and Data (TDS): 3% of portfolio
  13. American Eagle (AEO): 3% of portfolio
  14. Rohm & Haas (ROH): 2.96% of portfolio
  15. Liberty Acq Holdings (LIA-U): 2.95% of portfolio
  16. Thompson Creek Metals (TC): 2.5% of portfolio
  17. Orient Express Hotels (OEH): 2.2% of portfolio
  18. Meadwestvaco (MWV): 2% of portfolio
  19. CVS Caremark (CVS): 2% of portfolio
  20. Nabi Biopharma (NABI): 1.9% of portfolio


Assets from the collective holdings above were $3.89 billion last quarter and were $1.66 billion this quarter. Numerous funds we track are now showing holdings in Lorillard (LO), including Lone Pine Capital and Maverick Capital. Additionally, Third Point is now the third value oriented fund we've seen in Teradata (TDC). Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine has a sizable position in TDC, as does David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital. Another point of interest is Loeb selling completely out of Mastercard (MA), while legendary investor Julian Robertson was recently buying MA. Lastly, Loeb joins hedge fund Paulson & Co in arbitrage plays such as ROH and BUD. Please note that we have not detailed every single change to every single position in this update, but we have covered all the major moves. Also, keep in mind that these filings only include long equity, notes, and options holdings and do not reflect the cash or short portions of their portfolio. This is just one of many funds in our hedge fund tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital, Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, John Paulson's Paulson & Co and David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital. Overall, its been one of the worst years ever for hedge funds, as we noted in our recent October hedge fund performance update. Thus, the recent moves they've made in their portfolios become all the more interesting given the way the market has played out.

More on Loeb & Third Point:
- Third Point's 2nd quarter portfolio update
- October hedge fund performance update
- Hedge Fund Rankings


Consumer Savings Rate to Rise

The Economist has a great piece out about how the overleveraged American Consumer of recent memory is going to quietly take a backseat to the saving oriented consumer of decades past. Why? Well, because they will have to. The recession obviously has a negative impact on spending power and we've written numerous times about this current/upcoming phenomenon. Firstly, the decline in housing prices and the increase in the unemployment rate will obviously have a negative effect on the economy and in turn the consumer. Visa's consumer trends have already started to show this. Secondly, as these consumers find themselves struggling to get by, we'll notice that credit card debt will rise and we'll get a credit card squeeze. This, along with a ton of auto loan exposure has been the macro thesis behind shorting Capital One (COF). Add in the fact that they are continually seeing rising charge-offs and delinquencies and it's not a pretty picture. Lastly, add in the fact that many Americans have suffered from the destruction of wealth due to a horrible year in the stock markets.

All of the above plays right into our theme of shorting discretionary retailers and going long the "cheapest of the cheap" in consumer plays. The only retailers we want to be long in this environment are McDonald's (MCD) and Walmart (WMT). MCD makes sense because they provide cheap and easy food. When people are short on cash, that dollar menu goes a long way. WMT benefits from a similar thesis. When you're buying groceries, toiletries, you name it... Walmart has it and at the cheapest prices. Not to mention, they've got the Sam's club warehouse as well, playing right into our 'cheap' theme. As far as shorting discretionary retail goes, you can really take your pick. Whether it be casual dining chains, jewelry stores, or any leveraged consumer play, you have plenty of options. Or, you could just short the RTH retail index and then go long a select few retailers as a hedge. Consumers are/will be in a pinch for a few months to come and that's how you play it.

Now, take all the aforementioned facts and then add in this commentary from The Economist and you'll notice that a shift is coming. They write,

"On average, consumers from 1950 to 1985 saved 9% of their disposable income. That saving rate then steadily declined, to around zero earlier this year (see chart). At the same time, consumer and mortgage debts rose to 127% of disposable income, from 77% in 1990. Those forces have now reversed. The stockmarket has fallen to the levels of a decade ago. House values have fallen 18% since their peak in 2006. Banks and other lenders have tightened lending standards on all types of consumer loans. As a consequence, consumer spending fell at a 3.1% annual rate in the third quarter (in part because tax rebates boosted spending in the second), the steepest since the second quarter of 1980 when Jimmy Carter briefly imposed credit controls. More such declines are likely to follow. Richard Berner of Morgan Stanley projects that in the 12 months up to the second quarter of next year real consumer spending will fall by 1.6%—a post-war record. “The golden age of spending for the American consumer has ended and a new age of thrift likely has begun,” he says."

Lastly, take a look at this powerful chart. Personal savings has been in a steady downtrend ever since the '90s. Household debt, on the other hand, has almost doubled since the '90s. Something's got to give.

(click to enlarge)



Source: The Economist


Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Hedge Fund Tracking: David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital - 13F Filing Q3 2008

Next up, we have David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital. This is the 3rd Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here. We've already covered Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital,Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital, and John Paulson's Paulson & Co. Greenlight is a $6 billion fund ran by David Einhorn and has seen annual returns of over 25%. Greenlight specializes in spin-offs and value investing. Einhorn's name has been popping up in the media a lot over the past year, as he talked about his well documented short position in Lehman Brothers (LEH). And, while that position paid off handsomely for him, it barely offset losses he experienced from other positions. Einhorn was -13% for October and is now -26% year-to-date, as noted in our October hedge fund performance numbers post. Einhorn has also recently detailed the saga between his fund and Allied Capital, a company he shorted, in his book Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: A Long Short Story. It gives you an inside perspective as to how Greenlight constructs and researches their investment theses and we highly recommend it.

We track David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital due to their value investing orientation. Greenlight's approach is slightly different than some of the 'Tiger Cub' progeny funds we track. Although both are value oriented, Greenlight approaches things slightly differently by identifying mispricings in the markets and going from there. We've already covered a few other 'Tiger Cub' portfolios in our hedge fund tracking series, including Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, and Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global. We've tracked those and many other funds' performance in our October hedge fund performance. You can also check out Greenlight's 2nd quarter portfolio update here.

The following were Greenlight's long equity, note, and options holdings as of September 30th, 2008 as filed with the SEC.


New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
EMC Corp (EMC)
Kinross Gold (KGC)
Mercer International (MERC) 8.5% Note
TicketMaster (TKTM)
Pomeroy IT (PMRY)


Added to (Positions they already owned but added shares to)
Republic Airways (RJET): Increased position by 80%
Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS): Increased position by 30%
Helix Energy (HLX): Increased position by 30%
Echostar (SATS): Increased position by 9%
Teradata (TDC): Increased position by 4%


Some Reduced Positions (Positions they sold some shares of - note not all sales listed)
Ameriprise Financial (AMP): Decreased position by 83%
MDC Holdings (MDC): Decreased position by 82%
Target (TGT): Decreased position by 49%
Mercer International (MERC): Decreased position by 43%
Guaranty Financial (GFG): Decreased position by 14%


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Microsoft (MSFT)
HSBC (HBC) Puts
Patriot Coal (PCX)
Covidien (COV)
Walgreens (WAG)
Wellpoint (WLP)
UnitedHealth (UNH)
Lehman Bros (LEHMQ) Puts
Verasun Energy (VSUNQ)
Tyco (TEL)
Sears (SHLD)


Top 20 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

  1. Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS): 17.5% of portfolio
  2. Helix Energy (HLX): 15% of portfolio
  3. Target (TGT): 12% of portfolio
  4. Einstein Noah (BAGL): 7.5% of portfolio
  5. MI Developments (MIM): 6.5% of portfolio
  6. Health Management (HMA): 6.4% of portfolio
  7. URS Corp (URS): 6.4% of portfolio
  8. Teradata (TDC): 5% of portfolio
  9. Echostar (SATS): 3.5% of portfolio
  10. Ameriprise (AMP): 2.9% of portfolio
  11. Employers Holdings (EIG): 2.8% of portfolio
  12. MDC Holdings (MDC): 2% of portfolio
  13. Fifth Street Finance (FSC): 1.6% of portfolio
  14. EMC (EMC): 1.5% of portfolio
  15. Triple S Mgmt (GTS): 1.3% of portfolio
  16. Kinross Gold (KGC): 1.3% of portfolio
  17. Republic Airways (RJET): 1.2% of portfolio
  18. Dana Holding (DAN): 1.2% of portfolio
  19. Mercer International (MERC) 8.5% Note: 0.8% of portfolio
  20. Guaranty Financial (GFG): 0.7% of portfolio


Assets from the collective holdings above were $2.7 billion last quarter and were $1.4 billion this quarter. Interesting to note that Greenlight is yet another fund we've seen sell out of Sears (SHLD). Bill Ackman's Pershing Square recently sold practically all of their SHLD. Additionally, Greenlight is now the second value oriented fund we've seen in Teradata (TDC). Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine has a sizable position in TDC as well. Please note that we have not detailed every single change to every single position in this update, but we have covered all the major moves. Also, keep in mind that these filings only include long equity, notes, and options holdings and do not reflect the cash or short portions of their portfolio. This is just one of many funds in our hedge fund tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital, Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global, and John Paulson's Paulson & Co. Overall, its been one of the worst years ever for hedge funds, as we noted in our recent October hedge fund performance update. Thus, the recent moves they've made in their portfolios become all the more interesting given the way the market has played out.

More on Einhorn & Greenlight:
- Greenlight's 2nd quarter portfolio update
- October hedge fund performance update
- Hedge Fund Rankings


Tudor Investment Corp Halts Withdrawals From BVI Global Fund

Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp has temporarily frozen withdrawals from its $10 billion flagship BVI Global Fund. The global macro fund has found it tough to put a value on certain assets that don't really have a liquid market right now, namely corporate bonds and emerging market loans (about 29% of fund assets currently). So, in a move contemplated by many investment banks months earlier, Tudor is aiming to split his BVI Fund into two funds: The BVI Fund which will trade liquid securities such as stocks and currencies, and then the new Legacy fund which will house all the illiquid assets.

BVI Global is down 5% year-to-date. And, although Tudor is upset with his fund's performance, they are holding in there nicely, all things considered. Tudor also revealed that investors had asked to withdraw 14% of capital from the fund. This just goes to show that funds that haven't even been beaten down that bad are facing redemptions as well. People just need cash, badly.

Taken from Bloomberg,

"BVI Global, which has posted average annual returns of as much as 22 percent since inception, will focus on macro investing, a strategy that seeks to profit from broad economic trends by trading stocks, bonds and other securities.

As of Oct. 31, the fund had 62 percent of assets in macro investments, while 30 percent was in equity strategies and 8 percent was in credit, event-driven and fixed-income arbitrage trades, according to an October client letter.

The firm’s Tensor Fund Ltd., which manages about $1 billion, returned about 34 percent this year through Nov. 19, while Tudor Futures, managed by Jones, gained 21 percent, according to a person familiar with the firm."


Also worth noting is the fact that Tudor's equities focused fund, Raptor, is down 16.5% year-to-date. That fund is run by James Pallotta, who will be leaving Tudor to start his own fund.


You can read Paul Tudor Jones' recent letter to investors here.


T2 Partners' Whitney Tilson Bullish on Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)

Hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson was recently on CNBC's Fast Money to discuss Berkshire Hathaway's derivative exposure. Tilson is a deep value investor and you can bet he is very bullish on BRK.A/BRK.B at these levels. If you missed it, we've covered T2 Partners' recent portfolio updates in our hedge fund tracking series. Here's the video:




Additionally, in a recent email, Tilson pointed out another bullish signal on Berkshire: insider selling. Wait... what?!? Charlie Munger, in a recent SEC Filing, disclosed he sold 13% of his BRK.A shares. But, if you read the fine print of the filing, this sale was actually a bullish bet on Munger's part, as Whitney describes,

"If you read footnote 3 of the filing ("This Form 4 is being filed to report a private sale of shares of Class A Common Stock to family members, in exchange for a promissory note."), you'll understand that precisely the opposite is true: he sold them to a family member in exchange for a promissory note. In other words, he found the stock so cheap that he decided to pass the stock along this way -- and pay taxes on the gains this year! -- rather than through his will. It would be hard to find a stronger statement of how cheap he thinks the stock is -- he must believe $77,500 is the lowest basis he will ever see again."


Simply put, Tilson (and many others) are bullish on BRK.A/BRK.B at these levels.


Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters

Someone asked me the other day where to find all the various letters written by Buffett and company. So, I figured I'd post up the link for everyone who is curious or who has not read them. Read them here.


Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Hedge Fund Tracking: Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global - 13F Filing 3rd Quarter 2008

Next up, we have Andreas Halvorsen's Viking Global. This is the 3rd Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here. We're aiming to cover 35 or so prominent funds this time around and we'll be releasing the 13f analysis of each individual fund here in the coming weeks. We've already covered Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital,Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, and John Paulson's Paulson & Co.

Andreas Halvorsen is one of the many 'Tiger Cub' fund managers we cover here on the blog. 'Tiger Cubs' are the progeny of legendary investor and hedge fund manager Julian Robertson of Tiger Management. Many of the critical members of Tiger started their own funds, and Halvorsen is no different. We've already covered a few other 'Tiger Cub' portfolios in our hedge fund tracking series, including Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital. Although both Andreas Halvorsen of Viking Global and Stephen Mandel Jr. of Lone Pine Capital both learned the tricks of the trade under Robertson in their time at Tiger Management, both have taken what they've learned and added their own spice to the value oriented, yet growth at a reasonable price (G.A.R.P.) tolerable investment style. Halvorsen attended Williams College and received his MBA from Stanford, while his work history includes stays at Morgan Stanley and Tiger.

Viking employs a fundamental strategy, using a bottom-up process to pick stocks. Viking's Global Equities III Fund was -1.10% for October and is -2.41% ytd. Their Global Equities LP is -3.92% for the year and was down 1.10% in October. Andreas Halvorsen and company seem to be faring alright this year, all things considered. You can view their month by month performance breakdown here. Also, in our October hedge fund performance update, we've listed the performance figures of numerous other funds. In Alpha's latest hedge fund rankings, Viking was ranked #70 in the world. You can view their Q3 investor letter here in .pdf format.

The following were Viking's long equity and options holdings as of September 30th, 2008 as filed with the SEC.


New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Visa (V)
Verisign (VRSN)
Quest Diagnostics (DGX)
Alliance Data (ADS)
Beckman Coulter (BEC)
Harley Davidson (HOG)
Blackrock (BLK)
Coach (COH)
Autodesk (ADSK)
Franklin Resources (BEN)
Expedia (EXPE)
Thor Industries (THO)
National City (NCC)
Herbalife (HLF)
AvalonBay (AVB)
Stanley Works (SWK)
Whitney Holding (WTNY)
Charles River Labs (CRL)
Glacier Bancorp (GBCI)
Susquehanna bancshares (SUSQ)
Jeffries (JEF)
Alexander Baldwin (AXB)
Sina Corp (SINA)
Fair Isaac (FIC)
Arkansas Best (ABFS)
Associated Banc Corp (ASBC)
Tidewater (TDW)


Added to (Positions they already owned but added shares to)
Mettler Toledo (MTD): Increased by 2282%
Idearc (IAR): Increased by 395%
National Financial (NFP): Increased by 184%
MSCI (MXB): Increased by 82%
Federal Mogul (FDML): Increased by 59%
Donnelley (RHD): Increased by 49%
Monster Worldwide (MNST): Increased by 40%
First Horizon (FHN): Increased by 5%
Humana (HUM): Increased by 2.5%


Some Reduced Positions (Positions they sold some shares of - note not all sales listed)
Transocean (RIG): Sold 89%
Kroger (KR): Sold 79%
AON (AOC): Sold 62%
Apollo Group (APOL): Sold 27%
Invesco (IVZ): Sold 12%
Qualcomm (QCOM): Sold 15%
Davita (DVA): Sold 12%


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Mastercard (MA)
Plains Exploration (PXP)
Viacom (VIA.B)
Weatherford (WFT)
NII Holdings (NIHD)
Prudential (PRU)
Staples (SPLS)
Southwestern Energy (SWN)
Massey Energy (MEE)
Saic (SAI)
IHS (IHS)
Frontier Oil (FTO)
ITT Education (ESI)
Sherwin Williams (SHW)
Hologic (HOLX)
Illumina (ILMN)
Google (GOOG)
American Medical (AMMD)
Delta (DAL)
Mckesson (MCK)
CMGI


Top 20 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

  1. Apollo Group (APOL): 19% of portfolio
  2. Invesco (IVZ): 11% of portfolio
  3. Qualcomm (QCOM): 9% of portfolio
  4. Davita (DVA): 7.7% of portfolio
  5. MSCI (MXB): 4.7% of portfolio
  6. Visa (V): 4% of portfolio
  7. Priceline (PCLN): 3.7% of portfolio
  8. Verisign (VRSN): 3% of portfolio
  9. First Horizon (FHN): 2.9% of portfolio
  10. Mettler Toledo (MTD): 2.8% of portfolio
  11. Kroger (KR): 2.4% of portfolio
  12. Quest Diagnostics (DGX): 2.3% of portfolio
  13. AON (AOC): 2.2% of portfolio
  14. Alliance Data (ADS): 1.9% of portfolio
  15. Keycorp (KEY): 1.8% of portfolio
  16. Macrovision Solutions (MVSN): 1.8% of portfolio
  17. Beckman Coulter (BEC): 1.7% of portfolio
  18. St Jude Medical (STJ): 1.3% of portfolio
  19. Harley Davidson (HOG): 1.3% of portfolio
  20. Blackrock (BLK): 1.2% of portfolio


Assets from the collective holdings above were $5 billion last quarter and were $3.3 billion this quarter. Its also interesting to note that they effectively swapped out of Mastercard (MA) for their new Visa (V) position. We mention this mainly because many of the 'Tiger Cub' funds have positions in these two names and recently their mentor Julian Robertson was buying them. Interesting to see that Viking prefers one over the other. Please note that we have not detailed every single change to every single position in this update, but we have covered all the major moves. Also, keep in mind that these filings only include long equity and options holdings and do not reflect the cash or short portions of their portfolio. This is the tenth hedge fund we've covered in our 3rd quarter 2008 edition of our hedge fund tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital, and John Paulson's Paulson & Co. Overall, its been one of the worst years ever for hedge funds, as we noted in our recent October hedge fund performance update. Thus, the recent moves they've made in their portfolios become all the more interesting given the way the market has played out.

More on Halvorsen & Viking:
- Viking's performance numbers
- Viking's 3rd quarter investor letter (.pdf format)
- Tale of two 'Tiger Cub' hedge fund managers
- Hedge Fund Rankings


Halfway Through Redemptions?


Could we be halfway through the redemption cycle? That's what global wealth management firm Bernstein is postulating. After surveying the landscape of hedge funds, they believe that we are roughly halfway through the deleveraging process.

Here is some of the rationale,

"For a start, average gross leverage has fallen to 142 per cent of assets under management from about 175 per cent in 2006 and 2007. Most respondents, 63 per cent, think the hedge fund deleveraging process is at least halfway over. On average, those surveyed thought redemptions are 52 per cent complete — with the process to finish around the first-quarter of 2009. Still, about 10 per cent of respondents said they were setting aside cash for known or anticipated redemptions. Overall, cash as a percentage of total assets is now at about 31 per cent, compared to an average of 7 per cent over the past two years."




Source: FT


Monday, December 1, 2008

Hedge Fund Tracking: Paulson & Co (John Paulson) - 13F Filing 3rd Quarter 2008

This is the 3rd Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here. We're aiming to cover 35 or so prominent funds this time around and we'll be releasing the 13f analysis of each individual fund here in the coming weeks. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, and Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital. Next up, we have John Paulson's Paulson & Co. Paulson & Co is famous for making a fortune by betting against sub-prime when this whole mess began to unfold. And, it appears as if Paulson is still up to his fortune-making ways. One of his funds has generated a 589% return, which could easily be up there amongst the largest returns by a single hedge fund in a year. Paulson's Advantage Plus fund has returned 19.44% year-to-date as of the end of August. This is the same fund that gained 158% the year prior and has grown to almost $9 billion.

Paulson's bet against sub-prime has paid off and he has recently reversed course on that bet and has started to buy the assets he was previously short. In addition to his dances in sub-prime, Paulson recently disclosed a 14.6% stake in Cheniere Energy (LNG). And, prior to that, it was revealed that he was short UK banks. As we noted in our October hedge fund performance update, Paulson & Co's advantage plus fund was up 29.4% at the end of October. And, a week ago, Paulson went before Congress to testify with regards to the hedge fund industry.

The following were Paulson's long equity and options holdings as of September 30th, 2008 as filed with the SEC.


New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Applied Biosystems (ABI)
Anheuser Busch (BUD)
Rohm & Haas (ROH)
Barr Pharma (BRL)
Genentech (DNA)
BCE inc (BCE)
Merrill Lynch (MER)
NRG Energy (NRG)
Brocade Comm (BRCD)
Time Warner Cable (TWC)
Hercules (HPC)


Added to (Positions they already held but added shares)
none


Reduced Positions (Positions they sold some shares of - note not all sales listed)
Mirant (MIR): Reduced position by 6%
Philip Morris Intl (PM): Reduced position by 14%
Macrovision Solutions (MVSN): Reduced position by 38%


Positions with no change
Boston Scientific (BSX)
Kinross Gold (KGC)
Wrigley
Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS)
Affiliated Computer (ACS)
Cheniere Energy (LNG)
Equity Media Holdings (EMDA)
Tronox (TROXB)


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
WH Energy Services (WHQA)
Hercules Offshore (HERO)
Navteq (NVT)
Choicepoint (CPS)
Applera
Nymex (NMX)
Bank of America (BAC)
EDS (EDS)
Yahoo (YHOO)
Clear Channel (CCU)


Top 20 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

  1. Anheuser Busch (BUD): 25.8% of portfolio
  2. Rohm & Haas (ROH): 14.8% of portfolio
  3. Boston Scientific (BSX): 14.5% of portfolio
  4. Barr Pharma (BRL): 9% of portfolio
  5. Kinross Gold (KGC): 6.5% of portfolio
  6. Applied Biosystems (ABI): 4.8% of portfolio
  7. Mirant (MIR): 4.8% of portfolio
  8. Genentech (DNA): 4.2% of portfolio
  9. Philip Morris Intl (PM): 4% of portfolio
  10. Wrigley: 3.9% of portfolio
  11. BCE (BCE): 2.7% of portfolio
  12. Merrill Lynch (MER): 1.3% of portfolio
  13. NRG Energy (NRG): 0.7% of portfolio
  14. Brocade Comm (BRCD): 0.6% of portfolio
  15. Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS): 0.6% of portfolio
  16. Time Warner Cable (TWC): 0.5% of portfolio
  17. Macrovision Solutions (MVSN): 0.3% of portfolio
  18. Hercules (HPC): 0.28% of portfolio
  19. Affiliated Computer (ACS): 0.25% of portfolio
  20. Cheniere Energy (LNG): 0.15% of portfolio


Assets listed in the long portfolio this quarter were a little over $7 billion when compared to last quarter's $5.7 billion or so. It definitely looks as if Paulson is trying to play it "safe" in the equity markets by betting on mergers he thinks will still get done despite the credit crisis. His large stakes in ROH and BUD clearly illustrate that. Please note that Paulson's holdings are not necessarily primarily in equity markets, as they operate in numerous other markets. Also, keep in mind that these filings only include long equity and options holdings and do not reflect the cash or short equity portions of their portfolio. This is the tenth hedge fund we've covered in our 3rd quarter 2008 edition of our hedge fund tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, and Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital. Overall, its been one of the worst years ever for hedge funds, as we noted in our recent October hedge fund performance update. Thus, the recent moves they've made in their portfolios become all the more interesting given the way the market has played out.

More on Paulson & Co:
- Hedge Fund October performance numbers
- Paulson's congressional testimony
- Paulson's stake in Cheniere Energy (LNG)
- Paulson & Co shorts UK banks


Hedge Fund Related Linkfest

Since we're heavily into the hedge fund tracking series right now, figured we'd post up some relevant links for further reading.

Paulson & Co buys mortgages [FT]

If you ever wondered what SAC Capital's Stevie Cohen's house looks like, here ya go [DealBook]

Hedge Fund leverage historical comparison [PaulKedrosky]

Trimming the Hedgies [Ultimi Barbarorum]


Chill Out Man / Drink the KoolAid

(click to enlarge)

Hat tip Barry Ritholtz.

In other news, CNBC always wants you to drink the Kool-Aid. Just sayin'.

(click to enlarge)


Thursday, November 27, 2008

Holiday Deals: Financial Edition

Since Black Friday and all the Holiday sales are upon us, we've decided to just highlight a few deals we're seeing on the financial side of things.

  1. The Wall Street Journal for 75% off. Includes both the print and online editions. The rough economy has hit advertising budgets, so WSJ and other publications are cranking out the deals.
  2. FREE Quicken Online. A great tool for managing all your finances... and best of all its now completely free.
  3. $60 off Investors Business Daily. Another good deal on a well-known financial publication. Not to mention, you get 4 bonus weeks free too.
  4. Free Stock Trades with Zecco. No joke, 10 free trades a month with Zecco. I use them as one of my brokers and the $50-60 you save in commissions each month adds up quick. That's easily $650+ in savings each year.


Stay tuned next week for when we debut our Holiday Wishlist: Financial Edition, for some gift ideas for that savvy investor/trader you know.... or just for yourself hah.


Happy Thanksgiving

... to all the American readers out there. Markets are closed today and people are eating turkey.... good times. If you aren't an American reader, then happy day off from the American markets to you. Keep in mind that markets also close early tomorrow (Friday) at 1 p.m. EST as well.

Hope everyone has a good day and fun semi-long weekend as well!


Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Hedge Fund Tracking: Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital - 13F Filing 3rd Quarter 2008

This is the 3rd Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here. We're aiming to cover 35 or so prominent funds this time around and we'll be releasing the 13f analysis of each individual fund here in the coming weeks. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital. Next up, we have Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital. If his last name sounds familiar, its because his brother, Timothy Barakett, manages fellow hedge fund Atticus Capital, whom we also track. Taken from their site, Tremblant Capital Group's objective is "to achieve superior risk adjust returns for our investors through our focused and disciplined investment process." Tremblant is a $4.1 billion hedge fund based in New York and is run by Bret Barakett, who is a former portfolio manager at Moore Capital Management (the hedge fund run by the great Louis Bacon, whom we also track). So, as you can see, despite having a great mind of his own, Barakett has worked with some of the best in the macro game. But, as we noted in September, Tremblant has had a rough year. Tremblant recently disclosed a 5.2% stake in Advanced Medical Optics (EYE). Also, they added a stake in PharmaNet (PDGI). In addition to these stakes, you can view Tremblant's entire portfolio from the 2nd quarter here.

The following were Tremblant's long equity and options holdings as of September 30th, 2008 as filed with the SEC.


New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Chipotle (CMG/B)
Select Sector Financial (XLF)
SPDR Homebuilder ETF (XHB)
MEMC Electronic (WFR)
Discovery Holding Co (DSY)
KBW Regional Banks ETF (KRE)
Williams Cos (WMB)
Geoeye (GEOY)
Colfax (CFX)
IPCS (IPCS)
Google (GOOG)
Research in Motion (RIMM) Calls
MEMC Electronic (WFR) Calls
Charter Communications (CHTR)
TW Telecom (TWTC) Calls


Some Reduced Positions (Positions they sold some shares of - note not all sales listed)
Visa (V): Reduced by 17%
Apple (AAPL): Reduced by 16%
NYSE Euronext (NYX): Reduced by 6%
Qualcomm (QCOM): Reduced by 46%
Baidu (BIDU)): Reduced by 26%
Redhat (RHC) Calls: Reduced by 49%
Commscope (CTV): Reduced by 43%
Ntelos Holdings (NTLS): Reduced by 37%
CVS Caremark (CVS): Reduced by 36%
Inverness Medical (IMA): Reduced by 44%
Advanced Medical Optics (EYE): Reduced by 33%
Gafisa (GFA): Reduced by 47%
Focus Media (FMCN): Reduced by 68%
American Public Education (APEI): Reduced by 49%
Nuance Communications (NUAN): Reduced by 64%
Virgin Media (VMED): Reduced by 57%
Qualcomm (QCOM) Calls: Reduced by 45%
Focus Media (FMCN) Calls: Reduced by 91%


Positions with no change
none


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
EMC (EMC) Calls
Chipotle (CMG/A)
Time Warner (TWX)
Cogent Comm (CCOI)
Baidu (BIDU) Calls
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
Time Warner (TWX) Calls
Suntech Power (STP)
Pharmaceutical Prod Dev (PPDI)
Apple (AAPL) Calls
Lehman Bros (LEH) Puts
Anadigics (ANAD)
Bare Escentuals (BARE)
Lululemon (LULU) Puts
Wyeth (WYE)
Central European Media (CETV)
Shenandoah Telecom (SHEN)
Cabelas (CAB) Puts
Petrochina (PTR)
China Petroleum (SNP)
LCAVision (LCAV)


Top 20 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

  1. Visa (V): 7.68% of portfolio
  2. Research in Motion (RIMM): 6.24% of portfolio
  3. CVS Caremark (CVS) Calls: 6.2% of portfolio
  4. Apple (AAPL): 5.6% of portfolio
  5. NYSE Euronext (NYX): 5.3% of portfolio
  6. Hologic (HOLX): 4.47% of portfolio
  7. Hologic (HOLX) Calls: 4% of portfolio
  8. Qualcomm (QCOM): 3.9% of portfolio
  9. Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR): 3.9% of portfolio
  10. Baidu (BIDU): 3.5% of portfolio
  11. Corning (GLW): 3.5% of portfolio
  12. Corning (GLW) Calls: 3.2% of portfolio
  13. Melco Entertainment (MPEL): 2.9% of portfolio
  14. Mckesson (MCK): 2.8% of portfolio
  15. Eclipsys (ECLP): 2.7% of portfolio
  16. RedHat (RHT) Calls: 2.5% of portfolio
  17. Commscope (CTV): 2.4% of portfolio
  18. RedHat (RHT): 2.2% of portfolio
  19. Ntelos (NTLS): 2.1% of portfolio
  20. Healthextras: 2% of portfolio


Assets listed in the long portfolio this quarter were a little over $2.1 billion compared to around $4.1 billion last quarter. Tremblant's portfolio definitely has some names that have seen abnormal amounts of selling pressure, so they were out reducing positions and raising cash levels it looks like. Please note that we have not detailed every single change to every single position in this update, but we have covered all the major moves. Also, keep in mind that these filings only include long equity and options holdings and do not reflect the cash or short portions of their portfolio. This is the ninth hedge fund we've covered in our 3rd quarter 2008 edition of our hedge fund tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital, and John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital. Overall, its been one of the worst years ever for hedge funds, as we noted in our recent October hedge fund performance update. Thus, the recent moves they've made in their portfolios become all the more interesting given the way the market has played out.

More on Barakett & Tremblant:
- Tremblant's stake in PharmaNet (PDGI)
- Also, their stake in Advanced Medical Optics (EYE)
- Tremblant's performance numbers
- Tremblant's 2nd quarter '08 portfolio


Guitar Hedge Fund

There recently was a hedge fund formed to invest in guitars... and no, I'm not joking. Taken from the IG Blog,

"Anchorage Capital, a London investment firm, is expected to launch the Guitar Fund. Set up as a hedge fund, the Guitar Fund will seek investment returns by buying rare and vintage electric and acoustic guitars (steel-string and classical), plus mandolins, banjos and amps.

And get this, investors in the fund will also have the opportunity to actually play the guitars they invest in and take them home if they wish. Also, the fund plans to lend guitars out to well-known musicians for tours, recording and other events, which would enhance memorabilia value of the assets, ahem, guitars.

The basis for the fund’s idea is Vintage Guitar magazine’s “42 Guitar Index,” created in 1991 to track prices of vintage guitars. The index has demonstrated an average annual return of over 31% without experiencing a single down year.

The fund will have a fixed 10-year life and will be listed on the Channel Islands Stock Exchange. There are currently several institutional investors willing to contribute over half of the fund’s targeted kick-off investment amount.

What’s the amount, you ask? 55 million British pounds, the equivalent of about $100 million U.S. dollars."


First, we start seeing more publicity about wine funds, and now, a guitar fund. Maybe we should be thinking more outside of the box with some of our investments! Read the rest of the post over at IG Blog.


Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Hedge Fund Tracking: John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital - 13F Filing 3rd Quarter 2008

This is the 3rd Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here. We're aiming to cover 35 or so prominent funds this time around and we'll be releasing the 13f analysis of each individual fund here in the coming weeks. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, and Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital. Next up, we have John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital. Now, Griffin is similar to Stephen Mandel at Lone Pine Capital and Lee Ainslie at Maverick Capital in that they all are 'Tiger Cubs' (a.k.a. pupils of Julian Robertson while at Tiger Management). Griffin though, is more well known because he was Julian Robertson's right hand man. So, needless to say, he knows his stuff. Blue Ridge seeks absolute returns by investing in companies who dominate their industries and shorting the companies who have fundamental problems. And, right off the bat that presents us with a bit of a problem in terms of analyzing 13F's. 13F's don't show short positions, they show long positions (unless the firm is short through puts, which we *can* see). So, the inherent problem with analyzing Blue Ridge (or any fund for that matter) is that we can't see the other side of their portfolio. But, this is increasingly important for Blue Ridge simply due to Griffin's investment strategy and the fact that his short positions are equally or more important than his longs. We have, however, gotten one sneak peek at what Blue Ridge has been shorting. Both Griffin at Blue Ridge and Lee Ainslie over at Maverick Capital like to effectively hedge with a solid balance of both long and short positions (like a true hedge fund... not like some of the crazy funds these days that aren't truly hedged).

Griffin attended the University of Virginia for undergrad and received his MBA from Stanford. Recently, the University of Virginia hosted a hedge fund panel which consisted of many of the 'Tiger Cubs' as well as the founder of Tiger Management, Julian Robertson. At the panel, numerous hedge fund managers laid out some of their investment theses. Additionally, we noted that Blue Ridge recently disclosed a 5.47% stake in Millipore (MIL) and Julian Robertson had recently bought some stocks to hedge his overall short portfolio.

Now, onto the 13F. We'd like to thank Alex Prywes for their help in our 13F tracking series as it has allowed us to cover more funds. Before beginning, we'd like to suggest that you check out Blue Ridge's portfolio from last quarter, so you can get a feel for how they're altering their portfolio. The following were Blue Ridge's long equity and options holdings as of September 30th, 2008 as filed with the SEC.


New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Hansen Natural (HANS): 3.6% of portfolio
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): 3.49% of portfolio
Illumina (ILMN): less than 1% of portfolio
Goldman Sachs (GS): less than 1% of portfolio
Lululemon (LULU): less than 1% of portfolio
Las Vegas Sands (LVS): less than 1% of portfolio
Foster Wheeler (FWLT): less than 1% of portfolio
Wachovia (WB): less than 1% of portfolio


Added to (Positions they already owned but added more shares)
Amazon (AMZN): Increased position by 146%
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP): Increased position by 108%
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): Increased position by 97%
Target (TGT): Increased position by 47%
Echostar (SATS): Increased position by 35%
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO): Increased position by 27.6%
Anadarko Petroleum (APC): Increased position by 24%
Grupo Televisa (TV): Increased position by 20%


Reduced Positions (Positions they sold some shares of)
Amgen (AMGN): Sold off 85%
Charles Schwab (SCHW): Sold off 70%
Martin Marietta (MLM): Sold off 55%
Netflix (NFLX): Sold off 50%
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC): Sold off 49%
Exterran Holdings (EXH): Sold off 47.6%
Discovery Holding (DSY): Sold off 41.5%
Eagle Materials (EXP): Sold off 41%
Packaging Corp (PKG): Sold off 30%
Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR): Sold off 11%
Compton Petroleum (CMZ): Sold off 11%
Visa (V): Sold off 10.4%
Fomento Economico Mexicano (FMX): Sold off 9%


Positions with no change
Covanta (CVA)
Millipore (MIL)
MBIA (MBI)
American Express (AXP) Calls
Greenlight Capital RE (GLRE)
Gold Reserve Inc (GRZ)
Elong (LONG)
Perfect World (PWRD)
Washington Mutual (WM) Puts


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Apple (AAPL)
American Express (AXP): They sold all their common shares, but still hold Calls, as noted above
Bare Escentuals (BARE)
Countrywide Financial
Crocs (CROX)
Fairfax Financial (FFH)
Fannie Mae (FNM)
Freddie Mac (FRE)
First Marblehead (FMD)
Google (GOOG)
Indymac (IDMCQ)
Nutrisystem (NTRI)
Research in Motion (RIMM)
Rowan (RDC)
Vulcan Materials (VMC)
Walmart (WMT)
Wyeth (WYE)


Top 20 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

  1. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A): 8.13% of portfolio
  2. Grupo Televisa (TV): 7.6% of portfolio
  3. Target (TGT): 7.44% of portfolio
  4. Covanta (CVA): 7.2% of portfolio
  5. Millipore (MIL): 7% of portfolio
  6. Amazon (AMZN): 6.4% of portfolio
  7. ThermoFisher (TMO): 5.6% of portfolio
  8. Anadarko (APC): 5.3% of portfolio
  9. Broadridge Financial (BR): 3.7% of portfolio
  10. Hansen Natural (HANS): 3.6% of portfolio
  11. Visa (V): 3.6% of portfolio
  12. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD): 3.5% of portfolio
  13. Fomento Economico Mexicano (FMX): 2.67% of portfolio
  14. Echostar (SATS): 2.6% of portfolio
  15. Martin Marietta (MLM): 2.6% of portfolio
  16. Charles Schwab (SCHW): 2.5% of portfolio
  17. Packaging Corp (PKG): 2.5% of portfolio
  18. Discovery Holdings (DSY): 2.2% of portfolio
  19. Goodrich Petroleum (GDP): 2.2% of portfolio
  20. Amgen (AMGN): 2.17% of portfolio


Assets listed in the long portfolio this quarter were a little over $2.6 billion compared to around $4 billion last quarter. Keep in mind that these filings only include long equity and options holdings and do not reflect the cash or short portions of their portfolio. This is the eighth hedge fund we've covered in our 3rd quarter 2008 edition of our hedge fund tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, and Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital. Overall, its been one of the worst years ever for hedge funds, as we noted in our recent October hedge fund performance update. Thus, the recent moves they've made in their portfolios become all the more interesting given the way the market has played out.

More on Griffin & Blue Ridge:
- Blue Ridge discloses stake in Millipore (MIL)
- 'Tiger Cub' hedge fund panel (investment ideas)
- Blue Ridge is/was shorting UK banks
- Blue Ridge's 2nd quarter '08 portfolio
- John Griffin & Rick Gerson biographies
- Julian Robertson reveals some purchases


Peter Schiff: 2 Videos of Latest Commentary

Aaron Task over at Tech Ticker recently sat down with Peter Schiff to discuss Gold, the current crisis, and opportunities he is currently seeing. If you're unfamiliar with Schiff, he gained a following after correctly predicting the crisis we are currently in years before it happened. Some will argue, "Well, he was wrong all those years beforehand." Very true. Sometimes its painful being early. Value investors of all people could probably relate the most. At the same time though, he was still right and his commentary is worth checking out.

The first video:



And the second video:




The video of clips from 2006-2007 where Schiff warned of the impending doom.



And, lastly, some of his other recent commentary.


Monday, November 24, 2008

Hedge Fund Tracking: Timothy Barakett's Atticus Capital - 13F Filing 3rd Quarter 2008

This is the 3rd Quarter 2008 edition of our ongoing hedge fund tracking series. Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series we're doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here. We'll be bringing you the long equity portfolios of numerous prominent hedge funds. Hedge funds we track here at MarketFolly.com include: Tudor Investment Corp, Greenlight Capital, Blue Ridge Capital, Moore Capital Management, and literally many, many more. We're aiming to cover 35 or so prominent funds this time around and we'll be releasing the 13f analysis of each individual fund here in the coming weeks. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, and Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital.

Fund Background: Next up, we have Atticus Capital. Atticus Capital is a hedge fund ran by Timothy Barakett. In 2005, Atticus' funds were up a combined 45%. And, they finished well over 30% for 2006. Barakett founded the firm at age 26 in 1995 and focuses on taking large, concentrated positions in companies. One of Atticus' most famous investments was Phelps Dodge, a miner which was bought out by Freeport McMoran (FCX). At one point, Atticus owned more than 9% of Phelps. And, they continue to hold some of their position in what is now the combined FCX. Barakett received his BA in Economics from Harvard and his MBA from Harvard as well. Its very evident that Barakett employs macro based investment theses. Once he has decided on what the trend is, he will find the best company within that trend and he will place a big bet. And, when needed, he will step in and take an activist role, ensuring the company is performing to his liking.

You may have heard about Atticus over the past few weeks because they have not been performing well at all this year. In our September hedge fund performance update, we noted that Atticus European was -42.5% for the year as of September while Atticus Global was -27.2% over the same timeframe. And, consequently, Atticus was a victim of liquidation rumors, which were quickly denied. We previously analyzed Atticus' portfolio holdings back in June and noticed that they had significant natural resource and mining positions at the time. We'll get into the details below, but you can take a guess as to where a lot of their losses are coming from this year. Overall, it's been one of the worst years for hedge funds in a long time. And although Atticus still exists as a fund, they have definitely had a rough year and have been selling off assets.

The following were Atticus' long equity and options holdings as of September 30th, 2008 as filed with the SEC.

New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated in the last quarter):
Russell 2000 Index (IWM) Puts
CSX Corp (CSX) Calls
Financial select sector (XLF) Puts


Added to (Positions they already owned but added more shares)
Vale (RIO) Calls
Emisphere Technologies (EMIS)


Reduced Positions (Positions they sold some shares of)
Union Pacific (UNP)
Crown Castle (CCI)
Nyse Euronext (NYX)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Freeport McMoran (FCX)
Gold Fields (GFI)
Freeport McMoran (FCX) Calls
Newmont Mining (NEM)
Western Union (WU)
KT Corp (KTC)
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLK)
China Telecom (CHA)
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC)
Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR)
Sunair Services (SNE)
Petrochina (PTR)


Positions with no change
Synvista Therapeutics (SYI)


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Conoco Philips (COP)
Burlington Northern (BNI)
Conseco (CNO)
Peabody (BTU)
Mastercard (MA)
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Genomic Health (GHDX)
Visa (V)
Focus Media (FMCN)
Nyse Euronext (NYX) Puts
Banco Itau (ITU)
Boeing (BA)
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
Uhaul (UHAL)
Baidu (BIDU)
Banco Bradesco (BBD)
Companhia Saneamento Basico (SBS)
Praxair (PX)
National Financial Partners (NFP)
Unibanco (UBB)
Visa (V) Calls
Conoco Philips (COP) Calls
CSX (CSX)
Clean Energy (CLNE)
General Motors (GM)
BHP (BHP)
XTO Energy (XTO)
Marriott (MAR)
Starwood Hotels (HOT)
Nymex (NMX)
Cisco (CSCO)
Microsoft (MSFT)
American Tower (AMT)
Chesapeake (CHK)
Sandridge (SD)
Monsanto (MON)
Potash (POT)
Research in Motion (RIMM)
Apple (AAPL)
Google (GOOG)


Top 20 Holdings (by % of portfolio)

  1. CSX (CSX) Calls
  2. Vale (RIO) Calls
  3. Freeport McMoran (FCX) Calls
  4. Union Pacific (UNP)
  5. Financial select sector (XLF) Puts
  6. Crown Castle (CCI)
  7. Russell 2000 index (IWM) Puts
  8. Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
  9. NYSE Euronext (NYX)
  10. Newmont Mining (NEM)
  11. Freeport McMoran (FCX)
  12. Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLK)
  13. Western Union (WU)
  14. Emisphere Technologies (EMIS)
  15. Gold Fields (GFI)
  16. China Telecom (CHA)
  17. Synvista Therapeutics (SYI)
  18. Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR)
  19. KT Corp (KTC)
  20. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC)


Atticus was definitely out liquidating a lot of assets. In the quarter prior, they had nearly $8 billion in their long equity portfolio. This quarter, they had only around $500 million worth of positions. That is some serious deleveraging and unwinding. This is the seventh hedge fund we've covered in our 3rd quarter 2008 edition of our hedge fund tracking series in which we're tracking 35+ prominent funds. We've already covered Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners, Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, and Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital.

Stay tuned this week and next week as we detail the portfolio holdings of more funds. Overall, its been one of the worst years ever for hedge funds, as we noted in our recent October hedge fund performance update. Thus, the recent moves they've made in their portfolios become all the more interesting given the way the market has played out. Here are some funds to look forward to that we will be tracking: David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp, Louis Bacon's Moore Capital Management, and many, many more.

More on Barakett & Atticus:
- Atticus Capital's 2nd quarter '08 portfolio holdings
- October Hedge Fund Performance update