What We're Reading: Analytical Links ~ 1/30/13

Lessons from hedge fund market wizard Colm O'Shea [Finance Trends Matter]

The student loan bubble is 'simply unsustainable' [Zero Hedge]

Good read on upside risks [Reformed Broker]

What you can learn from the most popular finance films [Amazon Money & Markets]

5 reasons to remain cautious on US equities [SoberLook]

On insurance investing [Aleph Blog]

Wells Fargo (WFC) is cheap [Brooklyn Investor]

Predicting the next recession [CalculatedRisk]

Top 10 ways to deal with behavioral biases [Above the Market]

CRFN & ECBE: A look at an arbitrage opportunity [Whopper Investments]

Are you a value investor? Take the Apple (AAPL) test [Aswath Damodaran]

A look at Banco Popular (BPOP) [Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax]

All TV viewers pay to keep sports fans happy [NYTimes]

12 business lessons from Amazon founder Jeff Bezos [KissMetrics]

More homeowners are mortgage-free than underwater [Zillow]

David Gallo's Valinor Management Adds to Popular (BPOP) Position

David Gallo's hedge fund firm Valinor Management recently filed a 13G with the SEC due to portfolio activity on July 26th in shares of Popular Inc (BPOP). Per the filing, Valinor has revealed a 5.12% ownership stake in BPOP with 52,300,172 shares.

This marks a 52% increase in Valinor's position size in Popular since the first quarter. While this recent trading took place in late July, it's impossible to guess if the hedge fund has done anything with the position since then during August's tumultuous market decline. Since July 26th, shares of BPOP are down 16% and hit a new 52 week low today.

In other activity from the hedge fund, we've detailed Valinor's stake in Swift Transportation (SWFT).

Per Google Finance, Popular is "a diversified, publicly owned bank holding company. The Company operates in two markets: Puerto Rico and Mainland United States. In Puerto Rico market the Company provides retail and commercial banking services through its principal banking subsidiary, Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR), as well as auto and equipment leasing and financing, mortgage loans, investment banking, broker-dealer and insurance services through specialized subsidiaries. In Mainland United States market, the Company operates Banco Popular North America (BPNA), including its wholly owned subsidiary E-LOAN, Inc. (E-LOAN)."

David Gallo's Valinor Management Adds Heavily to Goldman Sachs, Iconix Positions: 13F Filing

(This post is part of our series on tracking hedge fund portfolios. If you're unfamiliar with tracking investments they disclose via SEC filings, check out our series preface on hedge fund 13F filings.)

Next up is David Gallo's Valinor Management. Gallo founded Valinor after previously working at Roberto Mignone's Bridger Management. He received his MBA from Harvard Business School and the hedge fund is named after lands often inhabited by immortal souls from the books of J.R.R. Tolkien. We just started covering Valinor's portfolio, and in the past have detailed their recent position adjustments.

The positions listed below were Valinor's long equity, note, and options holdings as of December 31st, 2009 as filed with the SEC. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted.


Brand New Positions
Check Point Software (CHKP)
Education Management (EDMC)
Cardinal Health (CAH)
Amedisys (AMED) Puts
PHH (PHH)
Bank of America preferreds (BAC-S)
Schweitzer mauduit (SWM)
Graphic Packaging (GPK)
Lear (LEA)
Boston Scientific (BSX)


Increased Positions
Goldman Sachs (GS): Increased by 457.4%
Gymboree (GYMB): Increased by 304.3%
Iconix (ICON): Increased by 132.7%
Popular (BPOP): Increased by 82.4%
Qualcomm (QCOM): Increased by 78.6%
Regions Financial (RF): Increased by 72.3%
Bank of America (BAC): Increased by 68.2%
Assurant (AIZ)): Increased by 44.8%
Dr. Pepper Snapple Group (DPS): Increased by 42.3%
Morgan Stanley (MS): Increased by 38.2%
Yahoo (YHOO): Increased by 33.8%
LM Ericsson (ERIC): Increased by 28.7%
Jarden (JAH): Increased by 19.4%
Covanta (CVA): Increased by 19.1%


Reduced Positions
DSW (DSW): Reduced position by 33.6%
Monsanto (MON): Reduced position by 21.5%


Removed Positions (Sold out completely):
People United Financial (PBCT)
Allegheny Energy (AYE)
International Speedway (ISCA)
Ecolab (ECL)
Hertz Global (HTZ)
Exterran (EXH)
Royal Caribbean (RCL)
Allergan (AGN)
United Community Banks (UCBI)
Eclipsys (ECLP)
MSC Software (MSCS)
YRC Worldwide (YRCW)


Top 15 Holdings by percentage of assets reported on 13F filing

1. Wyndham Worldwide (WYN): 4.29%
2. American Water Works (AWK): 3.18%
3. LM Ericsson Telephone (ERIC): 3.15%
4. Popular (BPOP): 3.10%
5. Goldman Sachs (GS): 3.06%
6. Covanta (CVA): 3.06%
7. Assurant (AIZ): 3.04%
8. Transdigm Group (TDG): 2.97%
9. Jarden (JAH): 2.96%
10. Iconix (ICON): 2.92%
11. Qualcomm (QCOM): 2.92%
12. Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS): 2.92%
13. Yahoo (YHOO): 2.91%
14. Regions Financial (RF): 2.78%
15. Monsanto (MON): 2.49%
    

Wyndham Worldwide is their largest holding and this is certainly the first time we've seen a hotel at the very top of a hedgie's portfolio. In fact, Valinor's portfolio as a whole doesn't resemble many of the other hedge funds we've looked at as it seems they take the road less traveled. Some examples of this would be positions in Yahoo, Regions Financial, and American Water Works. However, Valinor does join the plethora of other hedge funds betting on Transdigm Group (TDG).

Of the positions they added the most to, Goldman Sachs takes the cake as they boosted their position by over 450%. Other large additions include Popular (BPOP) and Iconix Brand (ICON). There weren't many reductions in their portfolio at all, especially when you consider their reported assets rose 28% on a quarter over quarter basis. Overall, Valinor increased their long US equity portfolio via consumer goods and financials exposure and they reduced services exposure.

Data used for this article comes from Alphaclone, our source for backtesting strategies and sorting through all the hedge fund portfolio maneuvers with ease. Assets reported on the 13F filing were $1.2 billion this quarter compared to $956 million last quarter, almost a 28% increase. Remember that these filings are not representative of the hedge fund's entire base of AUM.

We'll be tracking 40+ prominent funds in our fourth quarter 2009 hedge fund portfolio tracking series. We've already covered Seth Klarman's Baupost Group, Mohnish Pabrai's Investment Fund, Carl Icahn's hedge fund Icahn Partners, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital, David Tepper's Appaloosa Management, Warren Buffett's portfolio, John Paulson's hedge fund Paulson & Co, Lee Ainslie's Maverick Capital, Dan Loeb's Third Point, Eddie Lampert's RBS Partners, David Ott's Viking Global, and Chris Shumway's hedge fund Shumway Capital Partners, Chase Coleman's Tiger Global, Philip Falcone's Harbinger Capital Partners, Roberto Mignone's Bridger Management, Thomas Steyer's Farallon Capital, John Burbank's Passport Capital, Brett Barakett's Tremblant Capital, George Soros' hedge fund Soros Fund Management, and Philippe Laffont's Coatue Management Charles Anderson's Fox Point Capital, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management, Jonathan Auerbach's Hound Partners, Lee Hobson's Highside Capital, David Stemerman's Conatus Capital, and Matt Iorio's White Elm Capital. Check back daily for our new updates.

Dan Loeb Sees Favorable Investing Environment: Third Point's Investor Letter

Dan Loeb's hedge fund firm Third Point LLC recently sent out their third quarter 2009 investor letter and we're here to provide you with the highlights. Third Point currently manages $2.4 billion and was up 19.8% for Q3 and year-to-date as of September 30th was up 27.6%, outperforming the S&P 500 over the same timeframes.

Loeb mentions that their biggest gainers were Delphi (now inactive), Dana Holding (DAN), Bank of America (BAC), Fortis, Popular (BPOP), and RMBS securities in their mortgage portfolio. We've long known of their BAC position as he detailed it in his past letter to investors. Interestingly enough, we see that Loeb saw nice gains from Dana Holding (DAN) and we also make note that George Soros' hedge fund recently filed a 13G on that company which we'll detail in a separate post.

Just recently we covered Loeb's portfolio and noted Popular (BPOP) was a large new position. His letter provides more clarity on their position as they bought preferred shares around $0.64 per share and converted them into common at an implied cost of $1.50 per share. They believe it is undervalued relative to its peers and is positioned well in Puerto Rico.

Given that Loeb and Third Point often focus on event driven and arbitrage plays, it's interesting to see them currently have close to no risk arbitrage positions. They had previously had in excess of 20% of their capital invested in these strategies. This is mostly due to the fact that the Pfizer/Wyeth and Merck/Schering mergers closed, two arbitrage situations that hedge funds were playing heavily.

Loeb's investment outlook for the next six to twelve months is 'favorable' in both the equity and debt markets. He thinks that interest rates will remain low as the government continues to fight unemployment and get us on the road to recovery. On a corporate level, he expects to see "anemic revenue growth but continued margin expansion, increased corporate restructuring activity (spin-offs, mergers, and the like), and earnings that will frequently surprise to the upside. Thus, for equity investors, it is a stock picker's market on both the long and short sides." To see what equity positions Third Point is currently investing in, we recently checked out their portfolio.

We've covered hedge fund Third Point in-depth in the past and have compiled some nice resources including Dan Loeb's recommended reading, a recent video speech by Dan Loeb, and Third Point's second quarter letter.

Embedded on this page below courtesy of Dealbreaker is Dan Loeb & Third Point's third quarter 2009 investor letter:



You can also download the .pdf here.

Dan Loeb's Third Point Starts New Stakes In Popular (BPOP), TransDigm (TDG), & Health Net (HNT)

This is the third quarter 2009 edition of our hedge fund portfolio tracking series. If you're unfamiliar with tracking hedge fund movements or SEC filings, check out our series preface on hedge fund 13F filings.

Next up in our series is Dan Loeb's Third Point LLC. Third Point is a multi-billion dollar hedge fund that has seen annual returns greater than 15% since inception. Manager Dan Loeb focuses on event driven and value oriented investments and recently said he feels "like a kid in a candy store" due to all the distressed opportunities. In his past letter to investors, Loeb noted that he liked selective automotive debt plays. As noted in our hedge fund performance numbers post, Third Point was up 6.4% for August and 5.1% for September and were up 27.8% year-to-date at that time. For more market insight, definitely check out Dan Loeb's recommended reading list. Loeb started the fund back in 1995 with around $3.3 million in seed capital and today manages a multi-billion dollar portfolio. For some of his market insight and general thoughts on the industry, check out this video of a speech he gave.

Keep in mind that the positions listed below were Third Point's long equity, note, and options holdings as of September 30th, 2009 as filed with the SEC. We don't cover every single portfolio maneuver, as we instead focus on all the big moves. All holdings are common stock unless otherwise denoted.


Some New Positions (Brand new positions that they initiated last quarter):
Listed by their largest new stake first, and descending down
Popular (BPOP)
Transdigm (TDG)
Healthnet (HNT)
Wellpoint (WLP)
Cablevision (CVC)
American Water Works (AWK)
CareFusion (CFN)
First American (FAF)
Synaptics (SYNA)
Dana Holding (DAN)
Coinstar (CSTR)
Capitalsource (CSE)
Barclays (BCS)
Alkermes (ALKS)
Blockbuster (BBI)
Blockbuster B shares (BBI.B)
Loral Space & Communication (LORL)


Some Increased Positions (Positions they already owned but added shares to)
Schering Plough (SGP): Increased by 300% - inactive now due to buyout
Molson Coors (TAP): Increased by 45.5%
Pfizer (PFE): Increased by 40.7%
Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG): Increased by 33.3%
PepsiAmericas (PAS): Increased by 25%
Wyeth (WYE): Increased by 24% - inactive now due to buyout


Some Reduced Positions (Some positions they sold shares in)
Bank of America (BAC): Reduced by 54.9%
Phoenix Companies (PNX): Reduced by 7.3%


Flat Positions (Stakes with no change in amount of shares owned since Q2)
Ligand Pharma (LGND), Oracle (ORCL), Biofuel Energy (BIOF), Trian Acquisition (TUX), Greenlight Capital Re (GLRE), Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF), Liberty Acquisition (LIA), Liberty Media (LMDIA), Allergan (AGN), Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Apple (AAPL), PHH (PHH), Depomed (DEPO), and Nabi Biopharma (NABI).


Removed Positions (Positions they sold out of completely)
Yahoo (YHOO)
Sun Microsystems (JAVA)
Transatlantic Holdings (TRH)
Quest Communications (Q)
Legg Mason (LMI)
Maguire Properties (MPG) - we had covered them selling back in July
Guaranty Financial (GFGFQ)


Top 15 Holdings by percentage of assets reported on 13F filing

1. Wyeth (WYE): 15.2% (inactive, bought out by Pfizer)
   
2. PHH (PHH): 7.1%
3. CF Industries (CF): 5.5%
4. Liberty Acquisition (LIA): 5.2%
5. Bank of America (BAC): 4%
6. Popular (BPOP): 4%
7. Transdigm (TDG): 3.9%
8. HealthNet (HNT): 3.7%
9. Molson Coors (TAP): 3.1%
10. Pfizer (PFE): 3%
11. Wellpoint (WLP): 3%
12. Cablevision (CVC): 2.8%
13. Depomed (DEPO): 2.3%
14. Allergan (AGN): 2.2%
15. Hewlett Packard (HPQ): 2.2%
    

Overall, the vast majority of changes in Dan Loeb's portfolio were via either buying completely new stakes, or selling out of holdings entirely. There were only a few partial adjustments to the portfolio. In terms of brand new stakes, their positions in Popular (BPOP), Transdigm (TDG), and Healthnet (HNT) were all pretty large as they landed in the top 10 of Third Point's long US equity portfolio. It's also worth highlighting that their new stakes in Wellpoint (WLP) and Cablevision (CVC) were not far behind in terms of size either.

Notable positions that they sold completely out of include Yahoo (YHOO) and Sun Microsystems (JAVA). Those positions had previously been their 6th and 7th largest US equity holdings when we covered Loeb's portfolio in Q2 of this year. One position they still hold onto but did sell some of was their large stake in Bank of America (BAC). They just started that position last quarter and in one of his past investor letters, Loeb mentioned BAC could see ~$3 per share in normalized earnings power. It is interesting though that he has already sold more than half of his position.

You'll note the vast increase in their Schering Plough stake, but keep in mind that the security is now inactive as it was bought out by Merck earlier on. So, it appears that Loeb and company were playing the arbitrage of that buyout. In another arbitrage play, Third Point boosted their holdings in Wyeth (WYE) as they were set to be bought by Pfizer (PFE). And speaking of Pfizer, Third Point also increased their stake there and it is notable seeing how David Einhorn of hedge fund Greenlight Capital is also very fond of PFE.

Overall though, not terribly too much to report on in terms of portfolio changes as they continue to play their event driven game. Keep in mind that Third Point also operates in the distressed arenas and we cannot see those portfolio holdings as the SEC only requires hedge funds to file on their equity, options, and note positions in US markets. We have already covered the fact that Loeb was seeing tons of opportunities in the distressed space a few months back. So, just realize that these equities are not representative of their entire portfolio. In terms of other recent activity of out Loeb's fund, they filed a 13G on Energy Partners (EPL) not too long ago which we also detailed.

Assets from the collective holdings reported to the SEC via 13F filing were $1.2 billion this quarter compared to $901 million last quarter, so an increase of around $299 million or so invested on the long side in US equities and notes. Please keep in mind that when we state "percentage of portfolio," we are referring to the percentage of assets reported on the 13F filing. Since these filings only report longs (and not shorts or cash positions), the percentages are skewed. Realistically, the position percentages are more watered down in their actual hedge fund portfolio.

This is just one of the 40+ prominent funds that we'll be covering in our Q3 2009 hedge fund portfolio series. We've already covered Seth Klarman's Baupost Group, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, and Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital. Check back daily as we'll be posting up a new hedge fund's portfolio each morning.