Larry Robbins' Slideshow Presentation From Sohn Conference: HUM, WLP, MON

We posted up notes from the 2014 Sohn Conference in New York if you haven't seen them.  At the event, Larry Robbins of Glenview Capital pitched longs of Humana (HUM), WellPoint (WLP), and Monsanto (MON).  The conference has recently released his slideshow presentation and it is embedded below:



Be sure to check out the rest of the Sohn conference notes here.

Larry Robbins Long Humana, WellPoint & Monsanto: Sohn Conference Presentation

We're posting up notes from the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, produced in partnership with Bloomberg LINK.  Next up is Larry Robbins of Glenview Capital who pitched HMO's long like Humana (HUM) and WellPoint (WLP) and also agriculture play Monsanto (MON).


Larry Robbins' Sohn Conference Presentation

They recapped his amazing calls at the conference, including shorting GM, and long the hospitals, which was a blockbuster trade.

Long ideas: Humana (HUM, WellPoint (WLP), Monsanto (MON).

He says "resist the temptation to think 2014 is different from 2013, just because the calendar has changed." Over last 2 years, high yield bonds yield dropped by 200 bps.

Drivers:   
1. Cheap valuations on stocks, says SPX 16.1, 14.4x 2015.   
2. Lower systemic risk   
3. Corporate deployment- management and owners must "lift up."

Concept of "Convertible equity"  - an investment in a defensive secular growth business, that also carries call options on value-enhancing events.    Need to be more contrarian now. HMOs, and Monsanto, GMO provider are both out of favor.

Managed care. Myth 1: HMO profits are reason healthcare costs are too high. Fact: their profits were only 0.4% of al healthcare spending.  HMOs are the only sector of healthcare that haven't recovered. Pain is in the rear view mirror.  All headwinds turn neutral or to tailwinds over next 5 years. Greater exposure to Medicare and Medicaid- 22% from 9% in 2007.  New management in 4 of 5 biggest HMOs. (HUM, WLP, AET)

HUM: medicare advantage company. Baby boomers are aging, 4x the growth of overall population.  HUM taking share. Seniors like medicare advantage. HUM top-line growth 10-15% range. "Options:"   
1. PBM: outsource to another scale provider to reduce costs   
2. Cash use/returns on cash. 22% D/C ratio, could take on more debt to buy back shares or a small HMO.   
3. Retiree private exchanges.   
4. New markets.    
5. Long-term consolidation.

Base case PT: $143-152 Bull case: $194-207


WellPoint (WLP): traditional managed care. PBM sale ends in 2019.  Could unlock more PBM value as early as 2017.  PT $125-134 base case.

Monsanto (MON).  "In the real world, we cannot solve world hunger on an organic basis."  GMO seeds are best option for environment, and for feeding the world. Looks expensive at 19x this year, but it has new products that could $1.50-2.00 per share earnings. Near-monopoly position with multiple upside levers, Monsanto is suboptimally hoarding capital and value is trapped. 

Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from the 2014 Sohn Investment Conference.

David Einhorn's Q4 Letter: Greenlight Buys More Apple & Vodafone

David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital is out with their Q4 letter to investors via ValueWalk.  Greenlight returned 7.9% in 2012 and 19.4% annualized.

The key takeaways from Greenlight's fourth quarter activity include:

- Bought more Apple (AAPL):  They originally trimmed their position size in the third quarter, but as shares fell in Q4, they bought back some of their stake.  Einhorn has held AAPL for quite some time as he originally purchased around $248 and this seems to be the only other time he's added to the position.


- Bought more Vodafone (VOD):  This has also been a longstanding position for Einhorn under the thesis that VOD's ownership stake in Verizon Wireless is being undervalued.  We've also posted Eminence Capital's long Vodafone short Verizon pair trade thesis as well.


- Covered Pitney Bowes (PBI) Short:  Greenlight labeled this company a 'melting ice cube' due to facing secular challenges of declining US mail volumes.  Many hedgies have been short this name and we've also posted up how hedge funds have been shorting competitor Neopost as well.


- Sold Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), Humana (HUM), Wellpoint (WLP), bought other managed care organizations (undisclosed).


Greenlight's top five positions at the end of the year were (in alphabetical order): Apple (AAPL), Cigna (CI), General Motors (GM), gold, and Vodafone (VOD).


Embedded below is Greenlight Capital's Q4 letter to investors:




For more on this investor. be sure to also check out Einhorn's short thesis on iron ore.

Dan Loeb's Third Point Buys Kraft, Various Healthcare Plays: July Exposure Report

Just yesterday we posted up Dan Loeb & Third Point's Q2 letter and now we have some more portfolio metrics in the form of their latest monthly exposure report.  In July, Third Point Offshore was up 1.6% and is up 5.5% for the year.

Here are a few new takeaways from their latest exposure report:


- Long Kraft (KFT): The biggest news is that Third Point has disclosed a new position in Kraft Foods (KFT) and it is now their fifth largest position.  The company of course will be splitting into two: a North American grocery business and an emerging snacks business.

Although Pershing Square Capital no longer owns KFT shares, you can see Ackman's presentation on Kraft from a few years ago.  Third Point is most likely playing the spin-off, though.  Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund has also been a large owner of KFT.


- Long Healthcare Plays: Loeb's hedge fund also appears to have started new positions in UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Humana (HUM), Wellpoint (WLP), and Cigna (CI).  All of these names were 'top losers' for the fund during the month.  This is worth highlighting because it is the first time these stakes have been disclosed.  We recently flagged why David Einhorn likes Cigna as he recently bought the name as well.


- Third Point is net long the Americas by 70%, but net short EMEA by -4% and net short Asia by -10%.


- In equities, Loeb's firm is 35.4% net long (67.6% long and -32.2% short).  This marks a decent increase from June, where they were net long 27.3%.  Their largest net long sector exposure comes in technology, media & telecom (largely due to sizable Yahoo and Apple stakes).


- Their credit exposure remains somewhat unchanged from last month at 29.3% net long (37.8% long and -8.5% short).  Their largest exposure there continues to be asset backed securities.


Third Point's Top 5 Positions as of the end of July:

1. Yahoo! (YHOO)
2. Gold
3. Apple (AAPL)
4. Delphi (DLPH)
5. Kraft Foods (KFT)


Third Point's just-released Q2 letter details why Dan Loeb still owns Delphi, among other position updates.  We've also flagged how Loeb recently added to his Yahoo stake.

Ira Sohn Conference Notes Part 2: Ackman, Einhorn, Eisman, Icahn, Greenblatt

This is part 2 of our ongoing coverage of presentations given by top hedge fund managers at the Ira Sohn Conference today. Be sure to check out part 1 of our notes from Ira Sohn which includes presentations from Dinakar Singh, Jim Chanos, Phil Falcone and more.

Part 2:


Steve Eisman / FrontPoint Partners: Eisman was profiled in Michael Lewis' great book, The Big Short as one of the big winners in the subprime trade. Last year at Ira Sohn, he said to short for-profit education stocks and that trade paid off as many stocks were down anywhere from 25% to 72% over the past year.

This time around, Eisman focused on US financials, asking "are financials dead forever?" He notes that credit quality is improved but interest margins will most likely continue to contract.

Eisman likes property and casualty insurers, citing the potential for commercial policy pricing to improve. He noted that his year has been particularly hard hit with natural disasters, leading to large insurance losses. He thinks P&C insurers are a 'buy' even if there's another big disaster.

He says the least risky way to play this is via insurance brokers like Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Willis Group (WSH), and Aon (AON). You can read an in-depth analysis of AON in the free sample of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter (direct .pdf download link).

For riskier plays, Eisman points to pure reinsurers based in Bermuda and pulled up a list of them, the most well-known of which is probably Ace (ACE).


Bill Ackman / Pershing Square Capital: Ackman said to buy Family Dollar (FDO). He likes the dollar-store chain because it is like Walmart, but there's room to grow. He also notes the company's solid return on capital as they can build plenty of new stores. Many of Ackman's plays are retail or real estate focused and this one is no different.

FDO actually received a bid to go private from Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund, who offered between $55 to $60 per share in February. They are one of the largest shareholders, owning almost 8% of FDO's shares. Ackman believes that FDO is an attractive target for a leveraged buyout.

Ackman notes that Family Dollar has fallen behind competitor Dollar General (DG) ever since KKR bought DG and now FDO has to improve. The Pershing Square manager thinks shares will trade as much as 70% higher (FDO currently trades around $55 and Ackman thinks it's worth up to $92 including dividends). He also mentioned that his hedge fund was even buying shares today.

We also covered that Ackman started an activist position in Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX).


Joel Greenblatt / Gotham Capital: The value investor talked about the advantage of having a long-term investment horizon. He emphasizes investments that fall under the 'time arbitrage' classification. Market Folly readers will recall that Blue Ridge Capital's founder and hedge fund manager John Griffin also uses this approach. He classifies investments as either time arbitrage or catalyst driven.

Greenblatt's picks included a myriad of names, including: WellPoint (WLP), GameStop (GME), Intel (INTC), Walgreens (WAG), Nordstrom (JWN), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), and Humana (HUM).

He also has a new book out entitled, The Big Secret for the Small Investor: A New Route to Long-Term Investment Success. You can also check out his recommended reading list here.


David Einhorn / Greenlight Capital: Einhorn's presentation laid out the bull case for life insurer Delta Lloyd (AMS: DL), traded in the Netherlands. This is one of his hedge fund's largest positions.

His second pick was Microsoft (MSFT). The tech giant has attracted lots of value investors as of late and you can view fellow hedge fund T2 Partners' presentation on MSFT here. Einhorn says the company still has a shot at the smartphone market with its partnership with Nokia (NOK). He also notes that it is trading at a discount as the market isn't giving them credit for their solid position in cloud computing.

Einhorn also said that CEO Steve Ballmer doesn't care what Wall Street thinks and that could possibly be a good thing. However, he conceded that Ballmer is "stuck in the past" and said that Ballmer's "continued presence is the biggest overhang on Microsoft's stock." It's very clear Einhorn wants Ballmer fired.

We've also detailed Greenlight Capital's recent letter to investors for insight into their new positions in Yahoo! (YHOO) and Best Buy (BBY).


Carl Icahn / Icahn Partners: The legendary rabblerouser began his presentation by saying he's made a fortune by studying natural stupidity. Icahn said that "activism" in the old-school sense of the word is dead; there aren't anymore true corporate raiders anymore. He says that there's tons of money to be made by shaking things up at a company.

He went on to talk about why he returned outside investor capital in his funds. He simply didn't want to be responsible for the losses of others like he was during the 2008 crisis. Icahn fears further problems will arise in the markets in a year or two. His pitch at the conference? His holding company: Icahn Enterprises (IEP).


Mark Hart III / Corriente Advisors: If you're unfamiliar with Hart, then all you need to know is that he created subprime mortgage and sovereign debt funds well before the crises happened, profiting handsomely from the events that followed.

In his speech, Hart said to short China and this isn't the first time he's made this case. He argues that it is a credit fueled bubble and there are many misconceptions out there. It seems his conviction is high here as he says that China's bust will be much larger than the Asian crisis in the 90's.

Hart argues that inflation will end China's credit growth. This isn't the first time we've seen this argument. Hedge fund Kleinheinz Capital has in the past said that inflation is the biggest threat to emerging markets. Coincidentally, both Kleinheinz and Corriente operate out of Fort Worth, TX. Lastly, Hart mentioned he was buying puts on the renminbi.


Jeffrey Gundlach / DoubleLine: He used an Andy Warhol car crash painting as an illustration for the housing market. He said that Bank of America $BAC is a proxy for the ABX and says it's going lower. Gundlach likes natural gas.

Interestingly enough, Gundlach said that gold is too heavy to carry around to use as a form of currency to pay for things. Instead, he said to use gems to protect against a crash and uncertainty because they are more portable, noting that you can carry a ruby in your shoe. Gundlach prefers holding cash or gems instead of gold or silver.

As an aside, it's worth noting that diamond prices have been heading higher in recent months. They are not a publicly traded commodity and high demand from India and China seems to be driving prices there.


Marc Faber / Gloom Boom & Doom Report: Faber is very clearly not a fan of Ben Bernanke. He says that the Federal Reserve Chairman is a student of history regarding the Depression, but that Bernanke unfortunately doesn't know what caused it. Faber notes that as the Fed prints more money, cash and bonds obviously aren't good investments. He also joked that if everyone at Ira Sohn complained, Bernanke would come in and drop a trillion dollars right there.

Faber said not to own US government debt, even if the deflationists end up being right. He is also an advocate of owning gold but not storing it in one place. Faber says you need to store gold all over the world in Australia, Switzerland, etc. He also disputed Gundlach's notion to own gems over gold and said people will always value gold, even if you're in a jungle or desert because everyone knows what it is.


Steve Feinberg / Cerberus: He pitched residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) as a compelling opportunity and labeled them 'cheap,' given the high amount of underwater loans and depressed home prices.


Peter May / Trian Fund Management: Peter May of Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund pitched upscale jeweler Tiffany & Co (TIF), citing "enormous price appreciation" ahead. Catalysts for TIF include new store openings, vertical integration, new watches, and increased analyst coverage and he said shares could see $100 (they currently trade around $70.)


If you missed it, be sure to also check out part 1 of our notes from Ira Sohn featuring investment ideas from Jim Chanos, Phil Falcone, Dinakar Singh and more.

Broyhill's Affinity Hedge Fund: Betting on Deflation (Q2 Letter)

Broyhill started as a family office to manage Paul H. Broyhill's assets and has since evolved into a multifaceted investment firm. Their Affinity hedge fund was up 4.6% for June and was up 6.6% for the year at that time. We've touched on how the majority of hedge funds had a very rough second quarter performance wise. That said, not every hedgie out there as been battered down and Broyhill is evidence of that. So, how did they sidestep the volatility, you ask? They called in an old fashioned contrarian prescription to combat the market's sickness.

Their hedge fund has put on a contrarian bet on long-term treasuries (outlined via their ten reasons to buy bonds). Yet with a lack of inflationary signals as of late, maybe their bet isn't so contrarian after all. While hedge funds in general have had below average net long exposure, it was still evident that many funds were taking on more risk than they realized when May and June came around. The fact that most asset classes seemed to move in lockstep didn't help things either as everything seemed correlated to the downside. Everything but treasuries, that is.

Believe it or not, Broyhill had actually been short treasuries up until about March of this year. They then went long essentially as a hedge against deflation. Broyhill isn't the only one worried about deflation either. We just detailed how David Gerstenhaber's global macro hedge fund Argonaut Capital thinks deflation is the greater risk.

In recent commentary, Broyhill has reminded us that legendary hedge fund manager Michael Steinhardt coined the term 'variant perception' in which he focused on contrarian analysis and wagers by taking positions opposite those of consensus opinion. East Coast Asset Management recently highlighted the consensus versus variant perceptions in today's market as well. Broyhill has done the same as their bet on treasuries represents their highest conviction variant perception.

Christopher Pavese, the fund's Chief Investment Officer writes,

"Quite simply, we believe investors are worrying about the wrong type of 'flation' here and now. In the near term, the ongoing contraction in private sector credit - estimated by the OECD to reach 7% of the developed world's GDP or $3 trillion - combined with the threat of fresh credit strains ahead, should more than offset the long-term inflationary impact of increased government spending. The major point here is that most strategists today remain adamant bond bears, and after missing the call at four percent, it is near impossible for them to recommend buying treasuries yielding three percent!! We welcome Wall Street's hatred of government bonds and expect to hold our position at least until the consensus capitulates .... which looks to be a ways off given today's sentiment."

Here are the Affinity hedge fund's top ten longs:

1. iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury (TLT): 11.1% of assets
2. Vodafone (VOD): 3.2%
3. Wal-Mart (WMT): 3.2%
4. Kraft Foods (KFT): 3.1%
5. Humana (HUM): 3.0%
6. Nintendo (NTDOY): 2.9%
7. Market Vector Gold Miners (GDX): 2.8%
8. iShares Silver Trust (SLV): 2.8%
9. PowerShares US Dollar Index (UUP): 2.7%
10. Republic Airways (RJET): 2.7%

Keep in mind that we've previously detailed Broyhill's write-up of the bullish case for St. Joe Company (JOE) as well. So in addition to their hefty treasury position, it's clear that Broyhill has two other portfolio themes in play: high quality large caps, as well as precious metals exposure. For the latter, they've chosen to play silver and a bundle of gold miners. For the former, they've picked Vodafone (VOD), one of David Einhorn and hedge fund Greenlight Capital's largest holdings. Additionally, we've seen many hedgies favor Kraft (KFT), including Bill Ackman's Pershing Square.

Although they do not disclose specific positions, Broyhill's Affinity hedge fund has revealed its top sector short positions, including:

Education (5.2%) of assets
Global Financials (2.9%)
Business Equipment (2.9%)
Euro (2.7%)
Automotive (2.5%)
Appliances (1.9%)
Employment Services (1.8%)
Credit Rating Agencies (1.7%)
Global Resources (1.7%)
Recreational Vehicles (1.2%)

We'll continue to keep an eye on this hedge fund's successful wager on treasuries and embedded below is Broyhill's second quarter letter:



You can download a .pdf copy here.

For more on this deflationary wager, head to Broyhill's ten reasons to buy bonds as well as the thesis behind their bet on long-term treasuries. Additionally, more research from the hedge fund can be found in their bullish case for St. Joe (JOE).

Fairholme's Bruce Berkowitz Likes Healthcare Plays

We haven't covered Bruce Berkowitz on Market Folly before since we primarily track hedge funds here. However, there's no reason we shouldn't track him seeing how he is smart, an excellent stockpicker, and runs a concentrated portfolio. For those of you unfamiliar, Berkowitz runs the Fairholme mutual fund (FAIRX).

A $10,000 investment in his fund back in 1999 would today be worth almost $33,000. He founded Fairholme back in 1997 after a career as a managing director for Smith Barney. His Fairholme portfolio typically holds only 15-25 stocks, 20% cash, and employs a value approach. Berkowitz likes to see solid management teams coupled with undervalued companies. His concentrated portfolio allows him to 'bet big' on the stocks he sniffs out.

With this in mind, let's check out his latest focus: healthcare reform. In a recent publication from Money magazine, Berkowitz said he thinks the market is overestimating the impact that Obama's plans will have on healthcare companies. In fact, Berkowitz likes healthcare plays so much that he's put around 25% of Fairholme's portfolio in these sorts of companies. He doesn't think that healthcare reform will hurt profits for drug and hospital companies as much as others anticipate.

So, what companies does Berkowitz like? Here are his picks:

Humana (HUM) and WellPoint (WLP)

With both companies possessing P/E ratios of less than 10, they certainly fit Fairholme's undervalued focus. Berkowitz says that, "these insurers are both generating a significant amount of cash, and that's not reflected in their low stock prices. We don't believe the government will take over providing health insurance, despite fears otherwise."

Pfizer (PFE) and Forest Laboratories (FRX)

These companies also sport low P/E ratios and Berkowitz has taken notice. He says that, "a decade ago people overpaid for drug stocks because they were overly optimistic about earnings potential. Today that pendulum has swung so far the other way that some stocks are priced below their true value." Shares of Pfizer have been marching higher in stair-stepping fashion and trade at much lower multiples than they have historically.

We make special note of PFE because we've noticed many hedge funds buying shares over the past few quarters. After all, Pfizer was the second most popular stock held by hedge funds. Berkowitz is certainly not alone in his fondness for this name. John Griffin's hedge fund Blue Ridge Capital had Pfizer as their third largest US equity holding when last we checked. Whitney Tilson's hedge fund T2 Partners is long PFE. Also, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital also has a sizable stake in Pfizer and has been bullish on their prospects. While shares have been marching higher, we'll have to see if they continue to do so given the large 'smart money' presence.

So, some interesting picks from Fairholme's Berkowitz. He certainly feels others have overestimated the impact of healthcare reform on these companies. After all, he has almost a quarter of his portfolio in this sector. Lastly, in other interesting news out of Fairholme, we saw earlier that Berkowitz would be opening a bond fund after enjoying success with his equity fund. We'll continue to track his portfolio going forward.

Goldman Sachs Conviction Lists Update

A few more changes were made to the Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy list early this week. Firstly, Arcelor Mittal (MT) was added to the Conviction Buy List. Schlumberger (SLB) was also added to the buy list with a new price target of $59. Schlumberger, as we've detailed here on Market Folly, has a heavy concentration of hedge fund ownership, including the likes of Boone Pickens' BP Capital, Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, and many more funds.

Additionally, Humana (HUM) was removed from the buy list, but the firm still maintains a regular 'buy' rating on the stock. Transocean (RIG) was also removed from the Conviction Buy list, having been added to the list just recently back in September.

Boeing (BA) was added to the Conviction Sell List. Lastly, HealthNet (HNT) was removed from the Conviction Sell list.

If you've missed them, we've detailed previous changes that were made to Goldman's coveted lists on October 27th here, as well as the changes from October 20th here.