Mark McKenna Long Cigna: Capitalize For Kids Conference 2018

We're posting up notes from the Capitalize For Kids 2018 investment conference.  Next up is Mark McKenna of BlackRock who pitched a long of Cigna (CI).


Mark McKenna's Capitalize For Kids Presentation: Long Cigna

•    It is a vertical merger
o    Vertical integration. Reduce costs, increased access, integrate an experience, intensify experience
o    Transformative experience
o    Old media telco -> phone, PC, TV, Content all different and silo’do    Current media telco -> content, TV, phone, network, PC, content, all completely integrated, leading to a superior experience
•    Early days in healthcare transformation that should follow media’s lead
o    Liquid, large cap, 40-80% upside in NTM
o    Healthcare today: Everything is disparate. Doctor, pharmacy, MRI, Hospital, etc all silo’d
o    Healthcare going forward: all integrated and information shared etc
•    Cigna, Express Scripts deal. Additive thru integration
•    Cigna - health Network
o    Dentist, Doctor, Hospital, MRI - Medical Expertise
o    Cigna doesn’t take risk, but for a self-insuring company, they manage the rest of the networks, management, etc
•    Express Scripts - PBM network
o    Formulary
o    Pharmacy

•    No communications between the two for 30-60 days
•    Integrates experience
o    Expansive data set
o    Fully aligned incentives (Shouldn’t be writing more scripts)
o    Increased patient touchpoints and deeper health interventions
o    Total cost of care reduction and better patient outcomes
•    Value creative for Cigna shareholders
o    Cigna EPS 2021 from $18 —> $2.50 post deal
o    Mostly cost synergies, but $2 / share of revenue synergies, which is a conservative estimate
o    Thinks its very likely these are realized
•    Carl Icahn hates it
o    Price
o    Regulatory risk
o    Competitive disruption
o    Post-Anthem margins and customer retentions
o    Value destructive
•    BlackRock lead a behind the scenes campaign between shareholders and ISS
o    BR got the deal thru
•    30-40% recovery even if doesn’t happen, from recovery of share price + 15% share repurchase


Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from Capitalize For Kids 2018. 

David Einhorn's Q4 Letter: Greenlight Buys More Apple & Vodafone

David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital is out with their Q4 letter to investors via ValueWalk.  Greenlight returned 7.9% in 2012 and 19.4% annualized.

The key takeaways from Greenlight's fourth quarter activity include:

- Bought more Apple (AAPL):  They originally trimmed their position size in the third quarter, but as shares fell in Q4, they bought back some of their stake.  Einhorn has held AAPL for quite some time as he originally purchased around $248 and this seems to be the only other time he's added to the position.


- Bought more Vodafone (VOD):  This has also been a longstanding position for Einhorn under the thesis that VOD's ownership stake in Verizon Wireless is being undervalued.  We've also posted Eminence Capital's long Vodafone short Verizon pair trade thesis as well.


- Covered Pitney Bowes (PBI) Short:  Greenlight labeled this company a 'melting ice cube' due to facing secular challenges of declining US mail volumes.  Many hedgies have been short this name and we've also posted up how hedge funds have been shorting competitor Neopost as well.


- Sold Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), Humana (HUM), Wellpoint (WLP), bought other managed care organizations (undisclosed).


Greenlight's top five positions at the end of the year were (in alphabetical order): Apple (AAPL), Cigna (CI), General Motors (GM), gold, and Vodafone (VOD).


Embedded below is Greenlight Capital's Q4 letter to investors:




For more on this investor. be sure to also check out Einhorn's short thesis on iron ore.

David Einhorn's Presentation on General Motors, Cigna, Chipotle & GMCR: Value Investing Congress

Continuing coverage, we're posting up notes from the Value Investing Congress.  Below are notes and the presentation of David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital.  His talk was entitled 'Kicking the Tires' where he covered a range of topics, but mainly pitched General Motors (GM) and Cigna (CI) as longs and Chipotle (CMG) as a short.

"Do your homework and kick the tires." It's not the answers that make you good in this business, it's the questions you ask. Talked about how Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) was down 6% as he spoke during his presentation last year, but the point is it dropped right away, before people listened to the slides.  So he says you must do your own work.

Einhorn also mentions Herbalife (HLF), talks about him asking questions on the conference call. Because he said people were worried about the quarter.  Says he was quite surprised by the reaction.  Caris actually downgraded the stock based on the probability he was short. 

He mocks investors for not doing the work, but just trying to blindly follow him.    DO YOUR OWN WORK!  This is something we try to emphasize on MarketFolly.  Tracking hedge funds is a great way to find ideas, but only use it as a starting point.  Due diligence is key.


Einhorn's 4 Ideas This Year

1.  Long General Motors (GM): Remains an "ugly duckling" due to long investor memories, government ownership overhang and weak Europe division.

Bull case: Fixed cost structure improved. Pension risks overblown, unfunded liability may have narrowed by several billion, rising interest rates would help, too.  No required pension contributions until at least 2019.  Balance sheet cleaned up, brand quality improving across the board, improving pricing. $23.09, $42B, cash is 3/4 of the market cap.  $70B in tax shields; no taxes in US for a decade. EV is actually only $6B when you take these things out. $6.6B in EBIT this year, P/E depressed due to cash hoard earning nothing.  Consensus is too low, SAAR may be higher than street.

GM is #1 in China and growing faster than industry.  Europe is a problem and should restructure to at least break even by 2015. Government stake is an opportunity, not an overhang. US demand is 16M units:  Scrap is 13.2M units/year in a normal year. Ave age is now 11 years, up from 9 a decade ago.  5.5% scrap rate implies 19 year average life. Population growth alone is 2M units of annual demand. Recessions cause less vehicles per driver, but it rebounds as economy does.  This is 500k units/year. His SAAR is 16M units, not peak, but midcycle. Implies 315k incremental units for GM, $1.00 per share eps. 60% of units new in 2013/14 vs. 23% in the last 2 years. 2013 Cadillac ATS- "Esquire Car of the Year"

Does not believe European losses will persist indefinitely. $42B market cap, $32B cash, and $6B revolver.  So $38B total liquidity.  What should it do with its cash?  Government has 50M shares.  Repurchase of these is accretive, even at $30 per share, costs $15B.  $53 is break-even, so no sale will occur before election.  If Obama is re-elected, he may be willing to sell at a loss. Otherwise, they could still do a large open market buyback instead. 2014 "taxed" earnings could be $6 in 2014, $8 cash earnings.  This is midcycle, not peak result, so deserves a better multiple.


2.  Long Cigna (CI):  Lots of work. Have to understand HMOs, then Obamacare, then how it influences CI.  Then you have to understand their non-HMO businesses. Investors don't like HMOs now.  Earnings are hard to predict from Q to Q.  Obamacare scares investors.

Scary things: Humana (HUM), Wellpoint (WLP), Healthnet (HNET) all missed this year.  Obamacare: capped profits, risk of financial penalties 

Bull case: Secular growth, high barriers to entry, big players have scale already.  Still, ROE has been strong over time. CI is the best performer in the group.

Things that won't affect HMOs: Greek debt, Europe, China slowing, etc. They reprice annually so they always make money.  Obamacare is just "a homework problem" that can be analyzed. Also has Group Disability/Life and International business. 82% is non-risk bearing ASO business.  PBM is a potential high multiple sale GDL segment is consistent source of earnings despite weak employment trends. International is for multinational corporations' employees living overseas.

Trades at 7.7x 2013E, at a discount to sector which is cheap already.  You can see further comments from Einhorn on Cigna in Greenlight's Q2 letter.


3.  Short Chipotle (CMG):  Trades at 35x, nosebleed valuation. Average sector multiple is 22x. Compares to PF Chang, Boston Market.

Restaurant business:  low barriers to entry, Obamacare brings additional costs since they don't currently provide health care for employees, summer drought affects costs in coming periods.

The biggest near-term challenge: A resurgent Taco Bell (part of Yum Brands ~ YUM).  Most analysts think Taco Bell is low-end quick service restaurant, and CMG competes with higher end Panera.

He did a survey of CMG customers, and they actually visit Taco Bell almost as much.  Taco Bell SSS up 12% last year, while CMG missed. Taco Bell has more locations and cheaper menus. Taco Bell has decided to compete directly with CMG with their "Cantina Bell" menu which is almost exactly the same, but with 35% lower prices. 2/3 of CMG customers that tried Cantina Bell thought it was good; almost 1/2 liked it as much or more. Makes sense, Taco Bell has more money, locations, and can just add the Cantina Bell menu items to blunt CMG competition. Lots of insider selling as well.


4.  Short Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR):  He believes there is still accounting fraud. CEO said they had an investigation, but only took 23 days. Cites the SBUX "Verismo" system. Agreement for K-cups with SBUX is vague- how long?  CAPEX/sales is very high, 9-11-13% of sales, vs. industry average of 3.3% He also says a price war is coming, and GMCR generated no FCF during it's years as a monopolist.  Thinks the stock has further downside.  You can view Einhorn's presentation on GMCR from last year if you haven't seen it.


Question & Answer Session:

Does he like Yum Brands (YUM)?  Likes Taco Bell, but KFC in China may hurt too much. Not long.

Future price for CMG?  He says "we don't have to worry about that, we just think risk-reward favors the downside." GM, is government stake affecting sales?  He says they will sell sooner rather than later, and they are a passive role.  Chevy Volt obviously not going well and it's a tiny part of GM's business.

Anything on Moody's (MCO)?  Still thinks it’s a short, lawsuits are very persistent.

What about Apple (AAPL)?  His opinion unchanged

He's short steel, which he says is a hedge in a way, and lower steel prices are good for autos.

On Cigna (CI)?  "Less than 1% of the business is individuals"

Comments on St. Joe (JOE)?  Says they finally had a conference call, sales are zero, says you should listen to it.  Management, other than CFO, were too busy to take questions.


Embedded below is Einhorn's slideshow presentation from the Value Investing Congress: 

(.PDF coming soon)

Check out the rest of the hedge fund presentations from the Value Investing Congress.

Dan Loeb's Third Point Buys Kraft, Various Healthcare Plays: July Exposure Report

Just yesterday we posted up Dan Loeb & Third Point's Q2 letter and now we have some more portfolio metrics in the form of their latest monthly exposure report.  In July, Third Point Offshore was up 1.6% and is up 5.5% for the year.

Here are a few new takeaways from their latest exposure report:


- Long Kraft (KFT): The biggest news is that Third Point has disclosed a new position in Kraft Foods (KFT) and it is now their fifth largest position.  The company of course will be splitting into two: a North American grocery business and an emerging snacks business.

Although Pershing Square Capital no longer owns KFT shares, you can see Ackman's presentation on Kraft from a few years ago.  Third Point is most likely playing the spin-off, though.  Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund has also been a large owner of KFT.


- Long Healthcare Plays: Loeb's hedge fund also appears to have started new positions in UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Humana (HUM), Wellpoint (WLP), and Cigna (CI).  All of these names were 'top losers' for the fund during the month.  This is worth highlighting because it is the first time these stakes have been disclosed.  We recently flagged why David Einhorn likes Cigna as he recently bought the name as well.


- Third Point is net long the Americas by 70%, but net short EMEA by -4% and net short Asia by -10%.


- In equities, Loeb's firm is 35.4% net long (67.6% long and -32.2% short).  This marks a decent increase from June, where they were net long 27.3%.  Their largest net long sector exposure comes in technology, media & telecom (largely due to sizable Yahoo and Apple stakes).


- Their credit exposure remains somewhat unchanged from last month at 29.3% net long (37.8% long and -8.5% short).  Their largest exposure there continues to be asset backed securities.


Third Point's Top 5 Positions as of the end of July:

1. Yahoo! (YHOO)
2. Gold
3. Apple (AAPL)
4. Delphi (DLPH)
5. Kraft Foods (KFT)


Third Point's just-released Q2 letter details why Dan Loeb still owns Delphi, among other position updates.  We've also flagged how Loeb recently added to his Yahoo stake.

David Einhorn Sells Best Buy & Dell, Buys Cigna & Coventry Health: Q2 Letter

David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital is out with their Q2 2012 investor letter and Dealbreaker has it posted.  In it, they reveal that they no longer own Best Buy (BBY) or Dell (DELL).  Additionally, they started new stakes in Cigna (CI) and Coventry Health Care (CVH), playing the managed care sector.  Here are some excerpts from the letter:

On Best Buy:  "We thought that the core debate was whether or  not the company could compete with Amazon.  The answer at this point is that maybe it can and maybe it can’t.  (Despite the consensus view, our store surveys have repeatedly shown  that there is no price benefit for consumers to browse at BBY and then purchase at Amazon.)   There has been some deterioration in BBY’s domestic performance, which we attribute to a  lack of a “must have” consumer electronics  product, rather than  an erosion of BBY’s  competitive position.  While we held the shares, three unexpected problems emerged:  First,  BBY depleted $1.3 billion of its cash resources by paying a double-digit multiple for  Carphone Warehouse’s share of the Best Buy Mobile profit stream.  The market promptly revalued those earnings to BBY’s mid-single digit multiple.  Second, in the most recent quarter,  BBY’s international profits collapsed.  In particular, comparable sales in its Chinese business  fell 28% as the Chinese economy appears to have hit a wall.  Finally, the company dismissed  its CEO over his personal conduct, and also removed the Chairman for failing to respond  properly to the CEO’s misbehavior.  As a result, the company has an interim CEO and is  trying to come up with a strategy.  We worried  that this could lead to additional business  disruption so we exited with a loss."


On Dell:  "We had thought that the growth in the non-PC business would be enough to
offset the deterioration in the PC business.  The non-PC growth was smaller than we’d hoped
and the PC deterioration was worse than we’d anticipated.  While DELL has a good balance
sheet, it appears likely that management will try to use much of the cash to try to buy its way
into better businesses.  At a minimum, this will erode some of the value cushion that the cash
balance creates."


On Cigna:  "CI is a managed care company with three primary divisions:  Cigna HealthCare, Cigna Group  Disability and Life, and Cigna International.  Cigna HealthCare, which comprises about 70%  of CI’s profits, offers medium and large companies traditional risk-based insurance, in  addition to administering plans for those that prefer to self-insure.  Cigna HealthCare recently  bought HealthSpring to enter the fast-growing Medicare Advantage market.  Cigna Group  Disability and Life is a low-growth, stable  business. Cigna International, which provides  insurance policies for individuals, as well as insurance and administrative services for multinational companies and governments, is growing at more than 20% per year.  We believe that  CI deserves a higher multiple because the plan administration business is a service business  that doesn’t take risk, and the other divisions do not warrant discounted values.  Our purchase  price of $45.42 per share valued CI at less than 8x estimated 2012 EPS and approximately 6x  our forecast of post Obamacare 2014 EPS.  CI shares closed the quarter at $44.00 each."  Note: CI has since fallen further and you can currently buy it at cheaper prices than Greenlight.


On Coventry:  "CVH is a regional managed care company with operations in the mid-Atlantic, Midwest and  parts of the South.  The company offers commercial risk-based insurance and has an  expanding business in the government-sponsored Medicaid and Medicare programs.   Problems with a recently-acquired three-year contract to provide managed care services to the  Medicaid population in Kentucky caused the company to  significantly reduce earnings  guidance for 2012.  This led to a large drop in the stock price.  We believe the issues related  to the Kentucky contract are manageable and finite, and CVH will return to breakeven or a  profit on this contract in 2013 from a loss this year.  Our average purchase price of $31.22  represents 8x our forecast  for 2014 earnings net of $6 per share of cash and reflects our  estimate of the negative impact of Obamacare.  CVH closed the quarter at $31.79 per share."

We've also recently highlighted some of Einhorn's thoughts on Apple, Green Mountain and Amazon.

Einhorn's top five largest long positions at the end of the quarter (in alphabetical position) were: Apple (AAPL), General Motors (GM), gold, Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Seagate Technology (STX).  We highlighted how Greenlight was adding to their STX position last month.

Instead of waiting for a copy of the letter, we'll send you over to Dealbreaker who already has it posted here.

Jeffrey Altman's Owl Creek Boosts Cigna Position

Jeffrey Altman's hedge fund Owl Creek Asset Management filed a 13G with the SEC on their position in Cigna (CI). Due to portfolio activity on October 27th, Owl Creek has disclosed a 5.14% ownership stake in Cigna with 13,896,771 shares.

This is an increase of almost 66% in their position size. At the close of the second quarter, they only owned 8,396,087 CI shares.

Owl Creek Asset Management also recently disclosed a new position in Lone Pine Resources (LPR). They acquired this position via their stake in Forest Oil (FST) which distributed a special dividend of LPR shares to FST shareholders.

In other portfolio updates from this hedge fund, we've also detailed how Owl Creek has been active in YRC Worldwide (YRCW).

Per Google Finance, Cigna is "a global health service organization with subsidiaries that are providers of medical, dental, disability, life and accident insurance and related products and services. In the United States, these products and services are offered through employers and other groups and in selected international markets, CIGNA offers supplemental health, life and accident insurance products, expatriate benefits and international health care coverage and services to businesses, governmental and non-governmental organizations and individuals."