Invest For Kids Chicago Conference Notes 2018: Griffin, Zell & More

The Invest For Kids Chicago 2018 conference recently took place.  It featured investment managers sharing their latest ideas to benefit underprivileged children in the Chicago area.  Here's notes/summary of the event:


Notes From Invest For Kids Chicago 2018

Ken Griffin (Citadel Investment Group):  Took down risk in August.  Hasn't felt comfortable with lots of risk in about a decade.  Says there's lots to worry about and October has obviously thus far been volatile, but this is where portfolio managers can shine.  Sees lots of opportunity for Citadel in commodities.  Says to hire great people then delegate.


Sam Zell (Equity Group Investments):  Macro commentary, lots of uncertainty about next month's elections.  Long cash, maybe gold?  He thought we were in the 8th inning a few years ago, elections have since taken us into extra innings.


Christopher James (Partner Fund Management):  Long Intuit (INTU).  Known for its TurboTax and QuickBooks products, proprietary datasets are where the real value is.  Big Data + Workfroce 2.0.  New "One Intuit" ecosystem driving value as well.  People trust the company, are opting into data sharing.  INTU has underappreciated upside and is partnering well with a range of other fintech companies.


Mark Lampert (BVF Partners):  Long Idorsia (IDIA-CH), spin-off from Actelion done in conjunction with Actelion's sale to Johnson & Johnson.  Founders/owners of co are exemplary scientists and business operators.  Invested $525 million into Idorsia, more open market purchases recently.  Insider purchases stand out as among biggest in industry.  Thesis is to co-invest with the Clozels, the founders.


Vivian Lau (One Tusk Investment Partners):  Long Bombardier.  Prior management made a ton of mistakes.  Co has a strong backlog and good long-term demand.


Daniel O'Keefe (Artisan Partners):  Long Dentsply (XRAY).  Depressed earnings/multiple.  Co is growing, has good margins and ROIC.  Says dental spending is seeing secular, long-term growth.  180 million Americans are missing at least one tooth.  XRAY historically trades low-to-mid 20's P/E but has recently been mid-to-low teens.  They overpaid for Sirona, failed merger integration, and have had 4 CEO's in 3 years.  Thinks margins should revert, sees FY19 op margin at 17-21%, EPS at $2.30 to $2.80, stock worth $41-71, currently trades $35.


John W. Rogers Jr. (Ariel Investments):  Long Stericycle (SRCL), long Madison Square Garden (MSG), MSG Networks (MSGN).  People will probably still want to watch live sports, they own very valuable sports rights in a world class city.


Vivien Azer (Cowen & Co):  Long Canopy Growth (CGC/Weed).  Says it's a once-in-a-career disruption and only a matter of time.  Consumer packaged goods companies are getting into the sector.  Target price: C$82.00, 30x sales in three years.


Jeremy Schiffman (Palestra Capital):  Long Airbus.  In the good part of the cycle, about to get even better.  Higher margins to follow: op margins going to mid-teens in next three years.  Worth 180 Euros per share in three years.  Stock buyback is possible next year.  40,000 new aircraft deliveries worldwide in the next decade.  FCF heading from under 3bn Euros to 8bn Euros.  Short U.S. Trucking: (Wener, Knight-Swift, Heartland): good part of cycle right now but about to get a lot worse.  60 PMI likely to mean-revert to 50 or lower; if 40, short makes a lot of money.


Philip C. Ordway (Anabatic Investment Partners): Long Alaska Airlines (ALK).  Advantages from cost structure, customer loyalty, and markets/routes.  Attractive margins and returns on capital.  Current valuation = very low expectations. Secret sauce is Alaska's credit cards: loyalty program generated ~$1 billion of CFFO in '17. Operating margins ~40-50% with zero capital required, membership growing 10-12% per year. Bank of America pays Alaska every month based on members' credit card usage.  Co's integration of Virgin America almost complete, sees FCF >$2 bn in next 3 years. ALK 10% FCF yield, 9x P/E.


Constance Freedman (Moderne Ventures):  Long Fujifilm.  Venture capitalist looking to invest in old industries undergoing technological transformation.  3d printing, augmented reality, digital transactions are technologies applicable to many markets.  Document solutions, healthcare, imagine segments all use disruptive technologies.  Undervalued today relative to peers.  Revenue and profit growth from healthcare and imaging.  Sees 15x E 2018 EPS, 6% ROE


For more recent investment conference coverage, head to our summary of the Great Investors Best Ideas (GIBI) Dallas Conference. 

Notes From Invest For Kids Chicago Conference 2017: Balyasny, Zell, Litowitz & More

The 9th annual Invest For Kids Chicago conference recently concluded and featured top investors sharing investment picks to benefit charitable organizations.

Last year's conference picks returned 22.9% in an equal-weighted portfolio over the past year.  Here are this year's picks: click each link to go to that speaker's presentation.


Invest For Kids Chicago Notes 2017

- Dmitry Balyasny (Balyasny Asset Management): long Hertz (HTZ)

- Sam Zell (Equity Group Investments): On retail real estate 

- Alec Litowitz (Magnetar): Presentation

- Amos Meron, (Empyrean Capital): long Seritage (SRG)

- Rajiv Jain (GQG Partners): long Sberbank (SBER.RU)

- Rick Reider (Blackrock): long emerging markets debt

- Jimmy Levin (Oz Management): Long Chinese banks

- Mathew Klody (MCN Capital): short Domino's (DPZ)

- Seth Singerman (Singerman Real Estate): long Washington Prime Group (WPG)

- Bart Stephens, Blockchain Capital: bullish bitcoin, ethereum, blockchain

Sam Zell on Retail Real Estate: Invest For Kids Chicago Presentation

We're posting up notes from the Invest For Kids Chicago Conference 2017.  Next up is Sam Zell of Equity Group Investments who gave his thoughts on the retail real estate industry.


Sam Zell's Invest For Kids Chicago Presentation: Retail Real Estate

There have been “bearish overtones” to each of the past five annual gifts that Sam gives to his friends/partners.

Retail real estate – most people agree about a decline here, but online is still only 8.5% of total retail; it is very early in tech’s impact; everyone is trying to catch a falling knife; where’s the bottom and what’s an appropriate cap rate – open questions; best malls are OK because they’re mini downtowns, and on the other side the strip-center convenience-driven stores are OK – everything in between is an oxymoron; USA has 5 square feet per capita more retail real estate than any other nation; a lot of retail could go away and nobody would notice; Sears, Penney created malls as anchors, but now they are the “anchor” dragging everyone down; free rent is still too expensive if there is no traffic; might be 1-2 years left on a lot of bad leases – big changes coming; we’ll always have some retail, but unclear as to what the right price is.

Taubman is selling at a 6.3% (?) cap rate, but look at some of their peers and look at some of the tenants – who will fill empty stores/leases?  The growth of passive investing and indexations and ETFs is very, very dangerous; many real estate companies now have heavy ownership from entities who aren’t real owners; something will precipitate a regulatory change; ISIS = ISIS; ETFs are untested in a downturn; markets should be about capital formation and price discovery, neither of which apply to ETFs

With low rates, the burden of carrying cash is as low as ever – a great option to hold.  Things don’t grow to the sky – we’ll have a correction eventually.  There is a reasonable chance of tax reform getting done.


For more from this event, check out the rest of the presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago 2017.

Sam Zell's Presentation at Invest For Kids Chicago 2016

We're posting up notes from the Invest For Kids 2016 investment conference.  Next up is Sam Zell of Equity Group Investments.  He had a fireside chat to talk real estate.


Sam Zell's Presentation at Invest For Kids Chicago 2016

•    70% of what we do is in assets other than real estate

•    We prefer a monopoly, but we’ll settled for an oligopoly; we look at costs to entry and barriers to entry and replacement cost

•    We’ve done a lot of roll-ups over the years, and each begins with the idea that we don’t necessarily believe in synergies

•    Domestic versus international investments: going outside of the U.S. means sacrificing the rule of law; trading growth for rule of law; tricky to weigh those considerations, but emerging markets are where the growth is; fertility and economic growth create demand; biggest challenge we have today is where the demand will come from:

o    International investments also bring the risk of currency volatility, which requires extra patience
o    Prefer inflation-sensitive asses when currency is an issue
o    Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, India are biggest markets for us; very optimistic about Latin America
o    We like investing in a country when it is on the cusp of reaching investment grade
o    Doesn’t always work; we’ve been fortunate to move in and out at good times; Brazil recently was like handing the car keys to a teenager…sometimes they wreck it
o    European demographics are horrible, and only Japan might be worse; hard to see growing demand

•    Why does negativity abound among the investing class? We’re only wealthier in the past few years in terms of a fiat currency – are we moving from a responsible developed world to one dominated by competitive devaluations? And where is the demand? Our compliance costs have gone up 5x over the past eight years. So productivity is at an all-time low while regulation is at all-time high – unlikely to make historical rates of return in such an environment.

•    Look at the stock market. One could say that given the level of investment and growth it is overpriced. Real estate assets are at an all-time high. Inflation is at all-time lows. The result is not likely to be long-term positive results. More likely to have a recession, a cleansing, a market clearing before U.S. can grow. We can’t pretend and extend our way to growth.

•    On being pessimistic compared to Jon Gray or Barry Sternlicht: “I’m not as optimistic, but then I use my own money.”

o    Not finding ways to deploy capital in CRE today. Happy to sell to Jon and Barry.

•    On the traits of a good leader: it starts with 11th commandment, which is thou shalt not take oneself too seriously. Smile, make fun of yourself. Lead by example, not pontification.

•    The definition of a schmuck is someone who has reached his goals.


Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from Invest For Kids 2016.

SALT Conference Notes 2016: Griffin, Cooperman, Burbank, Chanos & More

The Skybridge Alternatives Conference, better known as the SALT Conference, is taking place in Las Vegas this week.  It's a multi-day affair with many speakers on a broad range of subjects.  We've condensed notes into primarily finance/investing thoughts from various hedge fund managers and investors below.


2016 SALT Conference Notes


Ken Griffin (Citadel):  Talked about how he built Citadel and the importance of culture at an organization.  'Avoid marrying a strategy' and instead focus on building a platform with the best people.  Business really taught him how to delegate and manage people.  On finding good talent: you've gotta be able to sell them on why they should leave and come to you.  You have to go out and find that talent instead of waiting for them to come to you.  The ones that 'knock on your door' aren't the best.  One interesting quote:  "Who is the number five manufacturer of personal computers?  Who cares?  We're in a more and more winner take all world."


Leon Cooperman (Omega Advisors):  He talked about a trend of investors moving from active to passive strategies and says that hedge fund performance can't really justify the fees these days, so fees need to come down.  He said that long-term (i.e. 'permanent') capital is doing good because they don't have to worry about lockups (citing Warren Buffett).  The other winner has been quant strategies.  Pitched the stock First Data (FDC) which recently IPO'd.  Says he's got around ~20% of his fund in structured credit at the moment.  Reiterated his belief that conditions for a recession are not present (a concept he's talked about for a while now).  Thinks the bubble is in fixed income.  Government bonds are a bad idea.  Likes Tetragon Financial, yields 7%, dividend coverage of 4x.  Buying a stock trading at half of book.


Kyle Bass (Hayman Capital):  Implied that investors need to lower their return expectations over the next few decades (5% global real return expectation).  Also agreed that fees for funds need to come down.  Says it's much harder to maintain investors than it is conviction.  Thinks we're in the early part of '07 in terms of credit/equity markets.  Says a hard landing in China is happening as we speak. Argues that China credit system is one of the biggest macro imbalances, something has to give sooner rather than later.  Hong Kong real estate is collapsing.


Roslyn Zhang (China Investment Corp):  Sovereign Wealth Fund.  Disappointed with hedge fund performance.  Compared Chinese retail investors to hedge fund herding.  Criticized those betting against the Chinese Yuan.  Argued that China's economy is still strong and that all of the building is due to the massive population; supply can be absorbed.


Sam Zell (Equity Group Investments):  Cost of regulation has gone up around 5x over the last decade.  Have been big investors in Brazil, Far East, Mexico. 


Ty Wallach (Paulson & Co):  Thinks specialty pharma stocks are oversold.  Specifically pointed out Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) bonds.  Bought at 80cents on the dollar and says the co still has $10bn in equity value.  Could sell one of the many companies they've acquired if they need to cover debt payments.


Jeff Smith (Starboard Value): Activist investor.  Says settled with Yahoo (YHOO), put four new members on the board.  Notes the parts of the company are worth more than where its trading.  Core biz with $4bn in revenue, huge stake in Alibaba, Yahoo Japan, add it all up and it's more than the current market cap.  Said 'we're friendly but no one describes us as passive.'


Scott Ferguson (Sachem Head Capital):  Sold out of Zoetis (ZTS).  We noted how Pershing Square was also selling ZTS recently.  Ferguson was the one that brought the idea to Ackman to begin with (he used to work at Pershing).  Talked about how to change leadership and achieve things on behalf of investors: "Money's a great way to effectuate things" i.e. severance for getting rid of a CEO.  Says things are easier for activists these days and companies are more likely to engage. 


Clifton Robbins (Blue Harbour Group):  Activist investor.  Owns 10% of Investors Bancorp (ISBC), says it's trading at a discount to peers.  Also talked about Xilinx (XLNX), a net-cash semiconductor play; says they have some ideas as to how to utilize the balance sheet.


Michael Lewis (Author of Flash Boys and The Big Short):  Said he was surprised that both Moneyball and The Big Short were made into movies.  Said Christian Bale was dead-on with his interpretation of Michael Burry after just spending some hours with him.


Richard Chilton (Chilton Investments): Sherwin Williams (SHW): makes premium paint and coatings.  Says the company's purchase of Valspar was years in the making and they can repay the price with free cashflow in about 5 years.  Thinks there's a lot of synergies and margin overlap.  SHW does higher margins in paint/consumer and VAL does better margins in industrial coatings.  "You can't buy paint online."


John Lykouretzos (Hoplite Capital):  Takes a bit of an issue with the 'oligopoly' theme of airlines, saying it's still a competitive industry with margin pressure.  Bearish on the industry.  Main threats: excess capacity, union labor wage hikes, and of course higher oil prices.  Says that low cost carriers (LCC's) have basically destroyed the chance for legacy airlines to become a true oligopoly.  Thinks American Airlines (AAL) is the most compelling short play there.  Has some of the highest costs & exposure to rising oil.  High leverage.  Weakest FCF generation of the group.  Thinks that Southwest Airlines (LUV) can still add capacity even at higher oil prices (~$80 or so) and still generate high IRR.


John Burbank (Passport Capital):  Says China won't let outside companies 'win' especially Facebook.  "It's a hard place to win if you're not Chinese."  (While he didn't mention it, just look at Amazon's failed venture there as well).  Burbank owns Tencent (700.HK) with short Chinese Renminbi as partial hedge.  Thinks it isn't as much of a crowded trade as Facebook (FB) is.  His slide also said "Short FXI: Hedge out 'Old China' country-specific risk with China large cap ETF."


Jim Chanos (Kynikos Associates): Still short Cheniere Energy (LNG), calling it a 'pipe dream' and very expensive to peers.  Trades at 11-12x EV/EBITDA using "base case" 2021 EBITDA of $2.1bn.  Peers trading between 5-7x 2020 EBITDA.  Also commented on Alibaba (BABA) saying their accounting is dubious and that you don't really know what they're earning, calls it some of the most questionable he's ever seen. Chanos also recently talked about some of his short positions at the Sohn Conference.


For other recent hedge fund manager thoughts, head to our notes from Sohn Conference New York 2016.

Sam Zell & Andrew Litt on Real Estate: Invest For Kids Chicago

We're posting up notes from the Invest For Kids Chicago conference 2015.  Next up is Sam Zell (Equity Group) and Andrew Litt (Land & Buildings) who talked about real estate.


Sam Zell & Andrew Litt at Invest For Kids Chicago 2015

•    Andrew met Sam 22 years ago while on the road show for Manufactured Home Communities. He was employed on the sell-side at that time.
•    Equity Residential recently sold $5B of real estate/apartments to Barry Sternlicht of Starwood.
•    Is Sam calling a top of the RE market?
•    Always been very disciplined and sold Equity Office before the last downturn as he thought someone offered him more than what they were worth. In case of apartments – different story.
•    Went public in 1993 - $800MM EV garden apartments.
•    Garden apartment – expressway visibility – “selling them shit”
•    Sam thinks the future was in high rise versus low rise, changing the company and upgrading portfolio. Suburbs sold, focus on 7 core markets. Envisioned selling it over 3 years, but had an opportunity to do it all at once at an attractive price and so he did it.
•    “Barry bought well maintained well occupied good assets which should be 75% leveraged versus 30%”.
•    Thinks it’s a win win for both.
•    Zell’s perspective concentrates them on where they want to be and return capital on a pro-rata basis.
•    On Equity Commonwealth – didn’t want to join activist campaign but said if they win, would take it over and finish it the last mile and got an option to purchase third of the activist’s position.
•    Didn’t buy/identify those assets and did analysis of opportunity – unusual situation as they could liquidate huge amounts of the portfolio without generating gains.
•    EQR had to distribute the proceeds, in Commonwealth’s case, liquidate assets pile up cash and keep control.
•    Purchased 10/15 years ago sold with no profits so that’s an indictment of the externally managed process (i.e. RMR’s management were terrible). Every day not buying their selling.
•    Didn’t have a hard time concluding that they should liquidate some of the assets.
•    Baseball adage – in the 8th inning on commercial real estate.
•    Once you get to the 9th inning – value dramatically dictated by quality of assets. High quality assets minor alterations but the marginal items in historical pricing is where you will see an impact in value.
•    US doing great today but the rest of the world isn’t. Starting to see the impact.
•    The disparity between B/A asset will increase.
•    Thoughts of activism? Thinks activism in most cases is another word for ownership. Biggest fallacy in capital markets is that companies are not “owned”.
•    Companies will be better out of activism. There are some good guys and some bad guys.
•    Not many viable opportunities as there is cash piling up.
•    Sending back $5.4B at EQR as they don’t think the cash can be invested at attractive returns. That is an ownership decision.
•    Where are you seeing opportunities? Difficult to broadly identify where there is significant demand.
•    Always steals/opportunities but don’t remember a signal period in his career where broad generalizations where irrelevant.
•    Investing in western Mexico – manufacturing is going there, other parts is weak.
•    Enormous amounts of liquidity and financing at attractive rates = lots of competition which is destructive.
•    Any place to use his grave dancer status? Energy sector. Haven’t seen all of the ramifications. Banks are just starting to redo their lines, and twill see the security they had wasn’t their anymore.
•    Most attractive at the moment.
•    You have to assume oil prices aren’t going to zero but you don’t need to bet that they go $70, don’t need that to win.
•    Looking for forced sellers – keep drilling or jettison midstream assets? Might find the midstream assets attractive (PARR)
•    Brazil? Went into Brazil early created a couple significant companies sold all buy one at higher prices. Brazil 180MM people, still growing although slowing.
•    PBR/scandals and political situation is the elephant in the room.
•    Less competition there now.
•    Institutions there are prepared to take discounts to clear the market.
•    Single bank hasn’t taken a single voluntary write off.
•    Thinks rates too low for too long.


Check out the rest of the presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago 2015.

Sam Zell's Talk at Invest For Kids Chicago

We're posting up notes from Invest For Kids Chicago 2014.  Next up is the fireside chat that Michael Sacks had with Sam Zell of Equity Group Investments.


Sam Zell's Talk at Invest For Kids Chicago

•    Comment on the election (Zell): I don’t know if America is better but there is a God.
•    Zell thinks yesterday was a big day. Big day from a number of different perspectives. (1) if results different, serious risks that the President legislates his way through edicts; (2) creates an opportunity for Obama to compromise and get something done through mutual agreement.
•    Everyone is excited that the stock market is at an all-time high. Experience is that USA can’t do well if Japan/Europe/Russia in trouble.
•    “Best looking gal in the whore house – it’s still a whorehouse” On USA and the rest of the countries
•    America needs growth. Whatever happens, need to refocus on growing company, which will begin to solve the trouble of inequality.
•    Where is Zell finding opportunities today to deploy capital? Some markets outside of the USA which are interesting - #1 country is Colombia. Major benefactor of the free trade agreement. Because of the reduction of FARC, Colombia production of oil increased due to access. Investing significantly in Colombia.
•    Optimistic on India. Difficult environment to operate in, many burned. Modi is doing good things.
 •    Real estate is where it was a couple years back, very attractive from a price point.
•    Always opportunities, look at individual situations. That is what they do.
•    Any common investment principles? They have always been industry agnostic. You get business or you don’t.
•    In the 80’s consolidated rail cars. No one liked it, but loadings where flat and they scrapped 65% of the cars – lots of money was made when those lines crossed.
•    Up until the 80s only did real estate, pivoted to opportunity.
•    When you commoditize trust, you dramatically increase risk.
•    If Zell was in his twenties to thirties what would he do? His response was the generations often thought the older generation had it easier. Zell and Lure’s success tied to the fact they didn’t know what they couldn’t do.
•    Current environment smells a lot like the dotcom boom in regards to valuations. Amazon is one example.
•    On philanthropy, approach from the perspective that anyone can put their name on the building by just giving money. They don’t want to do that. They support topics across colleges such as entrepreneurship and creative writing.
•    Talked energy briefly – noted cost of production in Saudi Arabia is cheaper than the USA and that the market went bananas on US oil for a bit.


Be sure to check out the rest of the hedge fund presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago here.

Invest For Kids Chicago Notes 2013: Lasry, Eisman, Peltz, Cooperman & More

The fifth annual Invest For Kids Chicago conference just took place and MarketFolly has notes from the event which featured tons of prominent hedge fund managers presenting investment ideas to benefit charities.


Notes From Invest For Kids Chicago 2013

- Marc Lasry (Avenue Capital): Long JC Penney & Connacher Debt

- Lee Cooperman (Omega Advisors): 4 long ideas

- Steve Eisman (Emrys Partners): Long Ocwen Financial & Altisource Portfolio Solutions

- Nelson Peltz (Trian Fund): Presentaiton on Mondelez

- Dinakar Singh (TPG-Axon): 2 investment ideas

- Sam Zell (Equity Group Investments): Real estate thoughts

- Jeff Gundlach (DoubleLine): His presentation

- Mark Kingdon (Kingdon Capital): Thesis on Boeing & Aegerion Pharma

- Steve Kuhn (Pine River Capital): Pitch on American Capital

- Rick Rieder (BlackRock): His presentation

- Stephen White (Castle Union): Pitch on Avid Technology

- Peter Zaldivar (Kabouter Management): Long Hotel Shilla

Sam Zell's Real Estate Thoughts at Invest For Kids Chicago

Next up in our notes from Invest For Kids Chicago 2013 is Sam Zell of Equity Group Investments and he gave his thoughts about real estate.


Sam Zell's Presentation at Invest For Kids Chicago

•    Business card is a book call “Quotations from the Chairman”
o    “Be a risk taker yet define risk in your own terms”
•    Perspective on US real estate in commercial sector
•    Flavor of the month – obsession of buying single family homes
•    Zell turned down the offers to operate a platform – Zell operates largest
o    Average of 400 units per location
o    Yet lower number of HVAC systems
o    Don’t see how it equates to a public company
•    How would you get credit in the stock market when the market doesn’t get one-time gains – not likely to be a very good public company going forward
•    Yet multifamily is probably the strongest sector in real estate
•    Deferral of marriage – times were different “there was no pill”
•    5 years ago Motorola rented prices in the city bc they couldn’t attract smart people to the suburbs
•    Society becoming more and more urbanized
•    The further out of a city you get the more you are affected by weakness
•    Demand for multi-family housing and optionality is changing supply / demand characteristics going forward
•    Retail is Darwinian scenario – major malls are taking market share 
•    Becoming “downtowns” of the past and Zell is positive on their future
•    Significant obsolescence in many non-core malls
•    Economics of strip centers – anchors cover interest payments and guys in middle make your profit yet these companies are hit the hardest
•    Retain under a huge threat of e-commerce which will continue to grow
•    Office market not as hot as 2007
•    Use of office space is changing
•    Existing tenants are redoing leases with less square footage than before
•    Not seeing construction which leads to oversupply
•    Hospitality (Chinese in the US is driving hospitality)
•    Expect significant number of tourists from Asia pacific (China especially)
•    Supply is in measure “under constraint”
•    Biggest issue is debt creation at historically low rate – low at 4% being refinanced at 7% - what does that mean?
•    One of the rules of the game is getting as long of a term as possible
•    Pubic market cheap but not significantly – “sharp shooter market” 


Check out the rest of the hedge fund presentations from Invest For Kids Chicago here.

Sam Zell: Invest Some Capital in Black Swan Scenarios

Next up in our notes from Invest For Kids Chicago is Sam Zell of Equity Group Investments.  He gave a sobering talk and recommended putting some money in 'black swan scenarios.'

•    Zell was the most active real estate investor in US in 1974 through 1976 
•    Zell is just glad he “didn’t have to mark to market” 
•    Wrote an article in which he described his activities as a "grave dancer" (GrizzlyRock Note: Thus earning him one of the better moniker’s in the business!) 

•    How does Zell get the confidence or optimism to go forward in face of uncertainty?  
o    What he found was that he had the confidence because it was embedded in the belief that he was buying things inexpensively 

•    Same sort of situation in 1990 and 1991.  Zell was buying office buildings at less than replacement costs with no value being ascribed to the land

•    What does the world look like circa 2012? 
o    Europe with disintegrating currency and cross winds between parties, 
o    Demographic death spiral, attempt to create austerity 
o    Europe going into recession and maybe more than a recession 
o    Emerging markets growth slowing (China, India, etc) 

•    "Why are stocks so high?  Why are re prices sky high?" 
 •    Would seem to Zell that things would be cheaper that they are given the environment 
•    Middle market debt inefficiently priced and thus interesting 
•    There are "sand dunes of uncertainty" in the US. 
•    Solving uncertainty is better than flooding the world with dollars" 


Zell's Idea: Black Swan Scenarios

•    Zell's idea was to invest some capital in true black swan scenarios 
•    Long run certainty is lacking and a fundamental problem in the US.

This is interesting when you consider that Tiger Management's Julian Robertson (who has seeded tons of hedge funds) was recently interviewed where he said many hedge funds are overly hedged and poised for doomsday scenarios.  Robertson also cited this as a reason as to why hedge funds are underperforming.  Zell obviously agrees with those managers as he advocates some tail risk hedges.


For the rest of the hedge fund presentations from the event, head to notes from Invest For Kids Chicago.

Sam Zell on Brazil's Investment Opportunity ~ Invest For Kids Chicago Notes

At Invest For Kids Chicago yesterday, Sam Zell of Equity Group Investments gave a presentation on Brazil as a unique investment opportunity.

Be sure to check out all notes from Invest For Kids Chicago where numerous high profile hedge fund managers shared their latest investment ideas.


Brazil as a Compelling Investment

Zell focused on how globalization has been a part of everyone's vocabulary and that GDP in emerging markets is closing the gap. The demographics in Japan, Eastern Europe, Russia and Italy are poor. Brazil on the other hand has 25% middle class rising to 2/3rds middle class. The country has 180 million people with growth of 5 to 6%. They're self-sufficient in food, energy, water and has the scale to grow further.

Brazil also has an educated workforce and "free agent managements." The country has pent up demand as they're expanding housing and helping people enter the middle class. $60 billion of foreign capital went into Brazil, a "drop of water." Consequently, there's inflation and interest rates are high. People seek high returns with a willingness to pay. Zell says it "feels like the US in the 1950's."

Zell concludes that Brazil is full of unique investment opportunities with a focus on service and an aspirational and growing middle class. While Zell did not specifically mention it, we thought we'd point out the exchange traded fund many choose to invest in Brazil is via EWZ. Earlier this year, we highlighted how Xerion Fund's Dan Arbess had been investing in oil companies in Brazil.

You can view full notes from Invest For Kids Chicago here.