Hedge Fund Tracking: Tontine Partners (Jeffrey Gendell) 13F

(Note: Before reading this update, make sure you check out the preface to the series I'm doing on Hedge Fund 13F's here)

Well, its time for us to get a little peak at what the big boys have been up to over the past few months. While most 13f's won't come out until later in the week, Jeffrey Gendell's 13F is already out so let's get right to it. If you're unfamiliar with Gendell and his Tontine Partners, then here's what you need to know. Founded 11 years ago, Tontine is a $10 billion fund ran by Jeffrey Gendell. He specializes in macro investing and takes very large, concentrated positions in companies he feels will benefit from those macro themes. Additionally, he will take on an activist role when necessary, to ensure shareholder returns. The fund has posted returns in excess of 100% in both 2003 and 2005.

So, let's get right down to it... what was Jeffrey Gendell up to this past quarter? The following is Tontine Partners' current holdings as of June 30th 2008 as released in their most recent 13F filing with the SEC. I've compared the positions in this most recent 13F to last quarter's 13F and here's what the breakdown looks like:

New Positions: (in no particular order)
Altra Holdings (AIMC) 1,272,832 shares
American Elec Technologies (AETI) 14,899 shares
Argan (AGX) 161,033 shares
DST Sys (DST) 2,233,158 shares
Itron (ITRI) 704,758 shares
Ladish (LDSH) 877,751 shares
Peoples Community Bancorp (PCBI) 90,183
Tetra Tech (TTEK) 3,216,197 shares
Thermadyne Holdings (THMD) 1,152,168 shares
Thomas and Betts (TNB) 5,766,719 shares
YRC Worldwide (YRCW) 2,746,171 shares


Added to:
Chemtura Corp (CEM) increased position by 313%
Satcon Technology (SATC) increased position by 165%
JP MorganChase (JPM) increased position by 153%
LSB Industries (LXU) increased position by 113%
Goldman Sachs (GS) increased position by 109%
Emcor Group (EME) increased position by 70%
US Concrete (RMIX) increased position by 64%
Patrick Industries (PATK) increased position by 49%
Accuride Corp (ACW) increased position by 46%
Tierone Corp (TONE) increased position by 45%
Mastec (MTZ) increased position by 45%
Sterling Financial (STSA) increased position by 39%
Goodyear Tire (GT) increased position by 28%
Sun Micro (JAVA) increased position by 22%
Foster LB Co (FSTR) increased position by 22%
Maxwell Technologies (MXWL) increased position by 16%
KB Home (KBH) increased position by 15%
Beazer Homes (BZH) increased position by 13%
Gentek (GETI) increased position by 11%
Pulte Homes (PHM) increased position by 9%
Elmira Savings Bank (ESBK) increased position by 9%
MI Homes (MHO) increased position by 8%
Merrill Lynch 9MER) increased position by 7%
Brush Engineered Materials (BW) increased position by 6%
Twin Disc (TWIN) increased position by 6%
Synalloy (SYNL) increased position by 5%
Perini (PCR) increased position by 5%
Sun Bancorp (SNBC) increased position by 5%
Toll Bros (TOL) increased position by 3%
Polyone (POL) increased position by 2%
PAB Bankshares (PABK) increased position by 2%
US Airways Group (LCC) increased position by 1%
Tenneco (TEN) increased position by 0.66%
AZZ Inc (AZZ) increased position by 0.60%
QCR Holdings (QCRH) increased position by 0.11%
Preformed Line Products (PLPC) increased position by 0.03%


Reduced Positions:
National Penn (NPBC) reduced by 94%
Astoria Financial (AF) reduced by 90%
Beneficial Mut Bancorp (BNCL) reduced by 90%
Koppers Holdings (KOP) reduced by84%
New York Community Bancorp (NYB) reduced by 78%
Meritage Homes (MTH) reduced by 69%
Citizens Rep Bancorp (CRBC) reduced by 67%
BB and T (MSDXP) reduced by 66%
Community Bk Sys (CBU) reduced by 63%
Georgia Gulf (GGC) reduced by 60%
Firstfed Financial (FED) reduced by 59%
National City (NCC) reduced by 57%
Central Pac Finl Corp (CPF) reduced by 47%
Northwest Bancorp (NWSB) reduced by 45%
Susquehanna Bancshares (SUSQ) reduced by 45%
Powersecure Intl (POWR) reduced by 45%
Amcore (AMFI) reduced by 44%
Citigroup (C) reduced by 43%
Graftech (GTI) reduced by 42%
First Merchants (FRME) reduced by 42%
First St Bancorp (FSNM) reduced by 41%
US Steel (X) reduced by 37%
Ameriserv Financial (ASRV) reduced by 35%
Esmark (ESMK) reduced by 34%
DR Horton (DHI) reduced by 34%
Provident NY Bancorp (PBNY) reduced by 33%
1st Source (SRCE) reduced by 32%
US Lime and Minerals (USLM) reduced by 32%
Associated Banc Corp (ASBC) reduced by 32%
Meta Financial Group (CASH) reduced by 30%
Webster Financial Corp (WBS) reduced by 29%
Ryland Group (RYL) reduced by 29%
Laporte Bancorp (LPSB) reduced by 29%
KBR (KBR) reduced by 27%
Bank of America (BAC) reduced by 26%
TRC (TRR) reduced by 24%
Whitney Holding Corp (WTNY) reduced by 22%
Ameris Bancorp (ABCB) reduced by 22%
Columbus Mckinnon (CMCO) reduced by 21%
AK Steel (AKS) reduced by 18%
United Bankshares Inc (UBSI) reduced by 16%
M And T Bank Corp (MTB) reduced by 15%
Centex (CTX) reduced by 15%
Southern Mo Bancorp (SMBC) reduced by 15%
Downey Financial (DSL) reduced by 12%
Rurban Financial (RBNF) reduced by 12%
Independent Bk Corp Mich (IBCP) reduced by 12%
Colony Bankcorp (CBAN) reduced by 12%
Camco Financial (CAFI) reduced by 11%
North American Energy (NOA) reduced by 11%
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) reduced by 10%
Grupo TMM (TMM) reduced by 9%
URS Corp (URS) reduced by 8%
Champion Enterprises (CHB) reduced by 8%
Ohio Vy Banc Corp (OVBC) reduced by 7%
First Bancshares (FBMS) reduced by 7%
LNB Bancorp (LNBB) reduced by 7%
Metrocorp Bancshares (MCBI) reduced by 6%
Wesbanco (WSBC) reduced by 6%
MB Financial (MBFI) reduced by 5%
TF Financial (THRD) reduced by 5%
Monarch Community Bancorp (MCBF) reduced by 5%
Provident Financial (PROV) reduced by 4%
Shaw Group (SGR) reduced by 4%
Integra Bank Corp (IBNK) reduced by 4$
Oreleans Homebuilders (OHB) reduced by 3%
Tradegar (TG) reduced by 3%
Iberiabank (IBKC) reduced by 3%
Teche Holding (TSH) reduced by 3%
First Financial Svc Corp (FFKY) reduced by 2.5%
Independence Fed Savings Bank (IFSB) reduced by 2%
HMN Financial (HMNF) reduced by 2%
Centrue Financial (TRUE) reduced by 2%
Mid South Bancorp (MSL) reduced by 2%
1st Independence Financial (FIFG) reduced by 2%
Princeton National (PNBC) reduced by 1.5%
Fidelity Bancorp (FSBI) reduced by 1.5%
Lincoln Bancorp (LNCB) reduced by 1.5%
Ameriana Bancorp (ASBI) reduced by 1.4%
Timken (TKR) reduced by 1.2%
CFS Bancorp (CITZ) reduced by 1.11%
MFB Corp (MFBC) reduced by 0.88%
Park Bancorp (PFED) reduced by 0.82%
First Defiance Financial (FDEF) reduced by 0.79%
Central bancorp (CEBK) reduced by 0.72%
Mutualfirst Financial (MFSF) reduced by 0.72%
Hexcel (HXL) reduced by 0.55%
Hawthorn Bancshares (HWBK) reduced by 0.43%
Citizens First Bancorp (CTZN) reduced by 0.4%
River Valley Bancorp (RIVR) reduced by 0.3%
First Keystone Financial (FKFS) reduced by 0.2%
First Banctrust (FBTC) reduced by 0.2%
Northeast Bancorp (NBN) reduced by 0.2%
New Hampshire Thriftbancshares (NHTV) reduced by 0.16%
Community Cap Corp (CPBK) reduced by 0.14%
Parkvale Financial (PVSA) reduced by 0.1%
Capital Bank Corp (CBKN) reduced by 0.1%
Premier Financial Bancorp (PFBI) reduced by 0.1%
HF Financial (HFFC) reduced by 0.1%
Provident Community Bancshares (PCBS) reduced by 0.05%
Southern Community Financial (SCMF) reduced by 0.05%
PVF Capital (PVFC) reduced by 0.01%
LSB Corp (LSBX) reduced by 0.01%


Removed Positions:
Positions Tontine Partners sold out of completely
American International Group (AIG)
Banctrust Financial Group (BTFG)
BCSB Bankcorp (BCSB)
BNC Corp (BNCC)
Capital Corp of the West (CCOW)
Capital One (COF)
Chart Inds Inc (GTLS)
City Hldg Co (CHCO)
Comerica (CMA)
Dime Community Bancshares (DCOM)
FNB Corp (FNBN)
First Niagara Financial (FNG)
Fox Chase Bancorp (FXCB)
Headwaters (HW)
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)
Independent Bk Corp (INDB)
Instituform Technologies (INSU)
K Tron (KTII)
Mainsource Financial Group (MSFG)
MBIA (MBI)
Mercantile Bk Corp (MBWM)
Navigant Consulting (NCI)
Olin Corp (OLN)
Peoples Bancorp Auburn
Peoples Utd Financial (PBCTD)
PFF Bancorp (PFB)
Pinnacle Bankshares (PLE)
PNC Financial Services (PNC)
Powell Industries (POWL)
Quality Distr Inc (QLTY)
Sovereign Bancorp (SOV)
Standex International (SXI)
Superior Bancorp (SUPR)
Team Ag (TISI)
Tetra Technologies (TTI)
Wachovia (WB)
Washington Mutual (WM)
Willow Financial (WFBC)
Yadkin Finl Corp (YAVY)


Positions with no change:
Ada Es Inc (ADES)
Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) - 2 for 1 Stock Split (did not increase holding)
Advanced Energy Inds (AEIS)
Ameron (AMN)
AMR Corp (AAR)
Astec Industries (ASTE)
Badger Meter (BMI)
Baker Michael Corp (BKR)
CCF Holding Co (CCFH)
Ceco Environmental (CECE)
Channell (CHNL)
Comfort Sys (FIX)
Community Cent Bank Corp (CCBD)
Community Shores Bank Corp (CSHB)
Cooperative Bankshares (COOP)
Core Molding Technologies (CMT)
Dearborn Bancorp (DEAR)
Dycom (DY)
Ecology and Environment (EEI)
Enersys (ENS)
Englobal (ENG)
Esco Tecnologies (ESE)
Exide Technologies (XIDE)
Ferro Corp (FOE)
Fidelity Southern (LION)
First community Corp (FCC))
First Fed Northern Michigan Bancorp (FFNM)
First Franklin Corp (FFHS)
Furmanite Corp (FRM)
Gehl (GEHL)
Great Lakes Dredge and Dock (GLDD)
Greenbrier Cos (GBX)
Hardinge (HDNG)
Hawkins (HWKN)
Hopfed Bancorp (HFBC)
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC)
Innospec (IOSP)
Insteel (IIIN)
Internet Cap Group (ICGE)
Jacksonville Bancorp (JAXB)
Jefferson Bancshares (JFBI)
KMG Chemicals (KMGB)
Landmark Bancorp (LARK)
LCC Intl (LCCI)
Magnetek (MAG)
Material Sciences (MSC)
Matrix Service Co (MTRX)
MBT Financial (MBTF)
Meadow Vy Corp (MVCO)
Met Pro (MPR)
MFRI (MFRI)
Nacco (NC)
National Technical (NTSC)
North Central Bancshares (FFFD)
Ohio Legacy (OLCB)
Otter Tail (OTTR)
Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina (PEBK)
Perma Fix Environmental (PESI)
Pike Elec (PEC)
Portec Rail (PRPX)
Quanta Services (PWR)
Shiloh (SHLO)
Sifco (SIF)
Smith A O (AOS)
Supreme Industries (STS)
Tower Financial (TOFC)
Trinity Industries (TRN)
United Bancshares (UBOH)
Versar (VSR)
Wabash National (WNC)
Westmoreland Coal (WLB)


Top 10 holdings by % of portfolio:
1. X (Top Holding)
2. CLF
3. KBR
4. PWR
5. AKS
6. SPY
7. XIDE
8. SGR
9. TRN
10. FWLT

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Breakdown: Tontine Partners' 13F can be summed up in 3 words: Regional Bank Clusterf*ck. He has a ton of them, but they aren't very big positions relative to his whole portfolio. For the most part though, Gendell was selling all his financials, including the regionals. The only major financial plays he has left anyways are smaller positions. And, his only positions of major size in that sector are through calls. So, I'd have to think that he saved himself some serious money by exiting/reducing a number of those regional positions, as they could have really put him in the house of pain. It should be noted that he made large additions to the big banks such as JPM and GS.

The next major trend I noticed in his portfolio was that he is highly levered up with steel holdings. While he did do some position size reducing across a few of his steel names (X, AKS), one still has to wonder how he's faring right now given the recent selloff in steel? Whether he has sold anymore substantial positions is the real question. Because, if he hasn't, the recent drop in steel stocks has undoubtedly affected his portfolio in a negative way. Although he did reduce his position sizes.... he still has MASSIVE stakes in the steel names. After all, the top 2 holdings of his fund (and 3 out of the top 10 holdings) as of June 30th were steel stocks. So, he definitely profited handsomely from these steel names by nearly top-ticking the market, selling huge chunks before the peak in July. But, he's since given back much of these gains, assumming he still holds the steel names. This is actually a very unique situation where his 13F doesn't really help us. These holdings were as of June 30th and that was conveniently around the same time steel stocks started topping out. So, the real action in the steel names has been occuring outside of the time period the 13F covers (ie: the past month and a half). And, he is either taking a lot of pain from these massive steel holdings, or he has been partly responsible for the massive selloff in the steel names. We can only guess at this point. We'll have to wait until the next round of filings to find out what he's been up to, unfortunately. The timing overlap on this situation really prevents us from gaining much insight.

But, from this past quarter, we can take away the fact that Gendell definitely had strong conviction in steel and infrastructure names. After all, practically all of his top 10 holdings are concentrated in those 2 sectors. One other top 10 holding I wanted to touch on though is his #4 holding, Quanta Services (PWR). This chart has been breaking out and I have seen this name popping up more and more around financial sites. Plus, it fits right into his whole infrastructure theme. So, it doesn't surprise me at all to see that Gendell has already been in this name for quite some time. After all, he's a pretty smart guy. (Keep in mind: although some of these top holdings are indeed large stakes, some/many have experienced price appreciation, boosting their % share of the portfolio even more.)

Tontine Partners' most interesting move(s)? Whatever he has done in the past month and a half that we can't see. No joke. Since such a massive allocation of his portfolio was dedicated to steel stocks, his fund's performance has no doubt been affected by whatever decisions he has made recently. If he has been one of the many selling steel names, then he is in great shape. If not, then he's screwed. Us plebeians will have to wait until the next round of 13F's to find out Gendell's steel fate.

13F Source: SEC

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Check back in during the coming weeks as I analyze the portfolio changes to numerous big name hedge funds such as Lone Pine Capital (Steve Mandel), Moore Capital Management (Louis Bacon), Tudor Investment Corp (Paul Tudor Jones), Blue Ridge Capital (John Griffin), & many many more.

About That Time Again: Hedge Fund Activity (13F's)

(Just FYI: This post marks the first of a series I will be doing in the coming weeks that details what the "smart money" has been up to lately.)

Four times a year, hedge funds & asset managers with > $100 million AUM (assets under management) are required to report to the SEC their holdings from the previous quarter. I check these 13F filings quarterly just to get a sense as to where these funds are putting their money sector wise. If you just sit down and do some simple number crunching between last quarter's 13F and this quarter's 13F, you can see exactly where these funds have been moving their money.

Please note, these 13F's should be treated as a lagging indicator simply because the 13F's that were just released August 10-15th 2008 show the funds' holdings as of June 30th 2008. So, in the past month and a half, they could have completely changed their portfolio. But, at the same time, its easy to see which sectors they are flocking to.

I like to specifically follow value based hedge funds in the hope that they won't experience ridiculously high turnover and thus allowing me to track their movements. Specifically, I follow the Tiger Cubs (otherwise known as the proteges of former Tiger Management legend Julian Robertson). Many of these former proteges/right hand men have started their own funds and here are the ones I've been following:

- Blue Ridge Capital (John Griffin)
- Lone Pine Capital (Steve Mandel)
- Maverick Capital (Lee Ainslie)
- Viking Global (Andreas Halvorsen)
- Tiger Global (Chase Coleman)
- Touradji Capital (Paul Touradji)

Additionally, I also like to follow the Commodities Corporation "offspring" which typically employ a global macro strategy.

- Tudor Investment Corp (Paul Tudor Jones)
- Moore Capital (Louis Bacon)
- Caxton Associates (Bruce Kovner)

So, I follow a core of value funds in depth and then I also follow a core of global macro funds in depth. Over the next week, I will be going into detail as to what those specific funds were up to this past quarter. Additionally, I like to follow other "whales" and funds that are not necessarily value based, but are still top performers on Wall Street. I won't be going into detail on some of these names, but I will provide some very useful links that give a broad overview of what some of these whales have been buying/selling. Because, after all, you've got to at least keep tabs on what these guys are doing:

- Warren Buffett (obviously)
- Carl Icahn (rabblerousing at its best)
- RBS Partners (Eddie Lampert)

Then, of course, there are some just straight up beastly funds which you have to keep an eye on due to their awesome returns over the years:

- Atticus Capital (Timothy Barakett)
- Tremblant Capital (Bret Barakett)
- Clarium Capital (Peter Thiel)
- Pequot Capital Management (Art Samberg)
- Harbinger Capital (Philip Falcone)
- BP Capital (Boone Pickens)
- Greenlight Capital (David Einhorn)
- Paulson & Co (John Paulson)
- Jana Partners (Barry Rosenstein)

A few deep value & activist funds:

- Third Point (Daniel Loeb)
- Pershing Square (Bill Ackman)
- Okumus Capital (Ahmet Okumus)
- T2 Partners (Whitney Tilson)
- Tontine Partners (Jeffrey Gendell)

And, a few new funds on the scene:

- Conatus Capital (David Stemerman, ex-Lone Pine)
- Highliner Investment Group (Anand Parekh, ex-Citadel)

So, over the coming week I'll touch on some important position moves some of these funds/whales have made (new positions, removed positions, etc). And, specifically, I'll be looking in depth at some of my favorite funds on a quarter by quarter comparison.

A Tease From Blue Ridge Capital and Lone Pine Capital

Get ready for a barrage of information as the various 13G, 13D, and most importantly 13F's are filed with the SEC by the various hedge funds in the coming days. Right now, we're just getting a little tease from Blue Ridge Capital (John Griffin) and Lone Pine Capital (Stephen Mandel Jr.), before they release their 13F's later in the week.

- Blue Ridge Capital, in a 13G filed yesterday, disclosed they now have a 6.7% stake in Echostar (SATS). As I first wrote about here, Blue Ridge started a new position in SATS in their previous 13F with 1,906,000 shares. And, this past quarter, they were definitely busy adding to that position, as they report they now hold 2,830,000 shares of SATS, which signals a 48.4% increase in the size of their position since last quarter.

- Lone Pine Capital, in a 13G filed yesterday, disclosed they now have a 7.8% stake in Hansen Natural (HANS). In their previous 13F filing, Lone Pine did NOT show a position in HANS. So, this is a brand new position that they've literally just assembled in the previous quarter.

Investment Scenarios: Inflation vs Deflation

I've said all along that you need to be thinking ahead and preparing your portfolio for various potential economic and market scenarios. And, I've roughly broken down these scenarios into two environments: inflationary & deflationary. So, after much reading, pondering, and hypothesizing, I've come up with my broad gameplan for each scenario.

Inflationary Environment
In an inflationary scenario, the following positions should be poised to benefit:

- Long Gold: As a speculator's instrument, many argue that gold is an inflation hedge. Long also other precious metals and commodities in general.

- Long Oil: In a truly inflationary environment, oil is supply inelastic; any increase or decrease in price would not result in a corresponding increase or decrease in supply.

- Short Leverage: A common theme regardless of environment, really. Leveraged companies, companies who provide leverage, companies with leveraged consumers.... short them all. A deleveraging environment is ahead of us.

- Long Technology: Regardless of environment, technology will evolve and there will be demand for such advancements.

- Short Fixed Income: Weak domestic currency/monetary system means it will underperform and thus should be shorted.

- Long Emerging Markets: A weak domestic currency/monetary system implies higher returns can be found abroad in countries experiencing vast growth.

- Avoid staying in cash: Inflation means your currency is worth less every day. Fight it by not staying in it if at all possible.

Deflationary Environment
Many people are becoming increasingly concerned that deflation is in our future. And, this concern is duly warranted considering that deflation typically rears its ugly head after periods of prolonged globalization and global growth. Such growth leads to increased investment, a massive increase in production, and thus excess capacity all around the world. Such excess capacity then brings forth lower prices. In deflation, companies suffer while the consumer is the real winner. In a deflationary scenario, the following positions should be poised to benefit:

- Short Equities: In deflation, traditional investments should suffer simply because the underlying companies will see lower margins and losses. And, more often than not, certain companies will become insolvent.

- Short Housing: Rent rather than own. As prices collapse, stand back and let the landlords watch the values of their properties plummet.

- Long Fixed Income: Mainly sought after as a safe haven (much like gold in an inflationary environment). While by no means a 'top pick' for investing during deflation, it is an option for those who do not have access to short selling (the preferred position). Although fixed income yields should decline due to fed easing (to combat deflation), the underlying should theoretically depreciate much less than equities (which you do not want to be long). Seek better quality bonds.

- Short Leverage: Regardless of environment, deleveraging should be a big theme playing out in the future. Short any companies that have anything to do with leverage. In deflation, leverage begins to unwind and as such currency plays can be found. A massive leveraged carry trade in the Yen has taken place over the years and as such would be unwound in deflation, thus benefiting the Yen.

- Short Emerging Markets: The global boom that once fueled these nations quickly turns sour for them. Global excess means prices come down and companies suffer.

- Long Technology: Regardless of environment, technology will advance and will be in demand.

- Avoid debt and raise cash

- Long Gold: In extreme conditions (in any direction), gold can make sense. In deflation, it can make sense when acting as currency.

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Whether in an inflationary or deflationary environment, portfolios can be poised to outperform. While the theme of deleveraging seems all but inevitable, the exact scenario(s) that will unfold are hard to predict. But, the possible outcomes stand roughly divided by the two scenarios outlined above. And, both environments offer unique investment opportunities poised to outperform. (See here for an additional set of stipulations regarding each type of environment).

Quote of the Week (8/11/08)

This week I'll throw a bit of a contrarian quote out there.

"When most people share the same sentiment, that is usually when trends change."

The rally we've slowly been mounting has been putting in higher lows as it approaches overhead resistance at the moving averages. I personally still feel this is just a minor rally within a broader bear market. For a trade, it makes sense to be long here if the counter-trend rally can breakout above the moving averages. But, then again, the overhead resistance we're about to run into could very well be the catalyst to send us right back down. I'll wait for a confirmation in either direction before I initiate new shorts or longs. This market is trading very tightly on technicals, that's for sure.

Potash (POT) Sitting on Long Term Trendline

I've been seeing a lot of people concerned about the action in the agriculture sector, namely fertilizer stocks. Just wanted to post up that while yes there is some concerning action in those stocks, the long term trendline is still in tact. And, that's all I'm concerned about. We all know these companies are still firing on all cylinders, as evidenced by the blowout quarters they just reported. The market, though, likes to sell off anything remotely commodity related; that's just how it is. As Lawrence so effectively points out: until the long term uptrend is broken, these stocks are still manageable.

(click to enlarge)

We are currently right around the long term trendline. You can buy around $168/169 and then stop out around $165 if you want a tight stop or $159 if you want a less conservative stop. These fertilizer names are on the verge of a major technical breakdown. And, although we love their story fundamentally.... you've got to adhere to the price action we're seeing.

Quotes From Hedge Fund Manager Paul Tudor Jones

Paul Tudor Jones is one of the most successful global macro fund managers out there. He manages in excess of $17 billion at his hedge fund, Tudor Investment Corp. Although these quotes are older (taken from around 2000), they are very generalized and still serve as great advice for any investor/trader.

"I'd say that my investment philosophy is that I don't take a lot of risk, I look for opportunities with tremendously skewed reward-risk opportunities. Don't ever let them get into your pocket - that means there's no reason to leverage substantially. There's no reason to take substantial amounts of financial risk ever, because you should always be able to find something where you can skew the reward risk relationship so greatly in your favor that you can take a variety of small investments with great reward risk opportunities that should give you minimum draw down pain and maximum upside opportunities."

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"And then at the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control. Ninety-percent of any great trader is going to be the risk control."

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Q: Let's play a word association game. I'll say a word and you say whatever comes to mind.

Q: Technical analysis

Paul Tudor Jones: Made well over half the money that I've made in my lifetime.

Q: Fundamental Analysis

Paul Tudor Jones: Made the rest.

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Source:
http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/Paul-Tudor-Jones-interview.html

Rough July for Macro Funds

Oh, how the fruits of success can come back and force-feed you some humble pie. Many macro strategy hedge funds savored their gains during the first half of the year as their large bets on long energy, short financials paid them off handsomely. July, on the other hand, was a different story. As oil retreated and numerous financials rallied, macro funds took it on the chin.

Peter Thiel's Clarium Capital was -6.8% for the month of July (hat tip JimPunkRockford). But, fanboys will be quick to point out that his fund is still up over 45% year to date.

Philip Falcone's Harbinger Capital was -16% for July (via BusinessWeek) as their large concentrated bets on energy and commodities (specifically Cleveland Cliffs - CLF) blew up in their face. But, once again, fanboys will be quick to point out that they are still up over 23% year to date.

This all when the S&P500 is roughly -14% over the exact same time frame. But, its all relative, right?

A Tale of Two Tiger Cubs

And this is exactly why I love tracking 'offspring' of investing legends like Julian Robertson. Although both Andreas Halvorsen of Viking Global and Stephen Mandel Jr. of Lone Pine Capital both learned the tricks of the trade under Robertson in their time at Tiger Management, both have taken what they've learned and added their own spice to the value oriented, yet growth at a reasonable price (G.A.R.P.) tolerable investment style.

Although Viking Global and Lone Pine come from the same school of thought, their returns are polar opposite year to date. So far, Viking's Global Equities III Fund is up 8.45% year to date. While, on the other hand, Lone Pine's Lone Cedar Fund is -5.38% year to date. Oh how the slightest tweaks in philosophy make a difference. While both are still outperforming the S&P on a relative basis, Lone Pine being down for the year is slightly surprising given the amazing run they had last year, netting 44% in 2007. Has Mandel's momentum run out? Its still much too early to tell.

Many 'Tiger Cub' funds often have similar positions in their portfolio, which is understandable given their similar general investment philosophies. What sets them apart from each other though, are the positions they take that are dissimilar from their former Tiger Management peers. And, in a few weeks when the next round of SEC 13F filings are released, we'll be able to see just where Viking differed from Lone Pine in their approach.

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Courtesy of the NY Post, we see just how some big hedge funds are faring year to date. As mentioned in previous posts, Harbinger Capital is tearing it up, as is John Paulson again (he tore it up last year as well due to his bets against the subprime mess). Some notable surprises on the list are Jeffrey Gendell's Tontine Associates poor performance, -17% year to date. It should be noted though, that he is more or less a value player, and we all know value is dead in 2008 (ha!). Also notable is Bret Barakett's Tremblant Capital -8.96% year to date. Bret is the brother of Timothy Barakett (manager of Atticus Capital), whom I track on the blog. I'll take a closer look at both of their 13f's this next go-round to see how similar/dissimilar the brothers are in their investment philosophies.

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Macro Takeaways

Courtesy of Commodity News and Mining Stocks, Salida Capital (a multistrat hedge fund that has seen compounded annual returns in excess of 50%) is out with some very simple macro bullet points that effectively summarize what we're witnessing.

1. The housing crisis in the US is deflationary
2. It will be met with unparalleled monetary and fiscal stimulus
3. The end result will be another round of reflation
4. This will eventually lead to an even more inflationary environment
5. Supply constraints on most commodities will keep long-term prices higher than consensus estimates
6. Hard assets will eventually get a re-rating as their earnings power relative to the overall market is recognized and as investors buy them as an inflation hedge.
- Courtesy Salida Capital Commentary For July 2008

Crude Oil

Contrahour has a very simple chart up showing the technical weakness crude is exhibiting. The chart implies that a re-test of the $100 is imminent. Notice how on the most recent test of $120 that oil is not springing off support as it should. Instead, it is lingering about, suggesting it wants to trade even lower. In early June, when hitting the same support level, buyers rushed in and crude soared right back up where it came from. That is not the case this time around. This should theoretically be bullish for the market as a whole. But, we all know how the market loves to surprise us.

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I.O.U.S.A. Movie Trailer

Hat tip to Howard Lindzon who twittered this movie trailer about the U.S. deficit. I love the Ron Paul cameo in there as well, that guy speaks the truth.



Interesting timing though as it releases in a few weeks.

Harbinger Capital At It Again

Well, looks like Falcone and his Harbinger Capital is at it again. While this technically occurred last week while I was gone, I still want to highlight it. Harbinger has been building up a 6.6% stake in Sunoco (SUN). They make mixed petroleum products and petrochemicals so I have to wager this is a play on oil prices coming down. They filed this as a 13G which was curious, because it means this was a 'passive' stake rather than their normal 13D 'activist' stake. I can only imagine they will eventually flip the activist switch on and turn to their normal rabblerousing days. In their last 13F filing (last quarter) they did not show a position in SUN at all, so this is fairly recent. Just wanted to point this out for all who might be interested because after all, Harbinger is killing it this year, up more than 40% YTD.

Source: StreetInsider.com

The Perfect Storm

Taken from Epoch, I just wanted to highlight this great slideshow about the perfect US Economic storm we are seeing currently. This is the largest I could get the text, so on some slides you will want to right click on the slideshow and select 'zoom in' to be able to read everything. Enjoy.

The Perfect Us Economic Storm

view presentation

Two New Hedge Funds to Keep an Eye On

Saw some interesting news in Bloomberg last week regarding new funds being launched by former employees of some impressive firms. First, we have Conatus capital (ex-Lone Pine) and then there is Highliner Investment Group (ex-Citadel).

Taken from Bloomberg,

"The biggest stand-alone startup was Greenwich, Connecticut- based Conatus Capital Management LP, which raised $2.3 billion. The firm was started earlier this year by David Stemerman, 39, formerly of Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital LLC. Highliner Investment Group LP in Chicago raised $1.5 billion. Highliner was founded by Anand Parekh, 35, who was previously global stock head for Ken Griffin's Citadel Investment Group LLC."

It will be interesting to see what direction these funds take and how similar their portfolios are to their previous employers. I'll keep everyone updated come the next round of hedge fund 13f's.

Hedge Fund Performance Updates

This past weekend I received some information regarding the performance of some very notable hedge funds year to date. Note that these performance figures are year to date as of June.

- Harbinger Capital up 42.8%
- Renaissance Technologies (Futures fund) up 7.75%
- Paulson & Co (Advantage fund) up 20.58%
- Daniel Loeb's Third Point fund up 2.49%
- Carl Icahn's fund down -9.44%
- Steven Cohen's SAC Capital (Multistrat fund) up 1.92%
- Bristol LP up 28.14%

I'll post up some more numbers as I receive them, but so far this is all I've got. I'll definitely be adding Harbinger Capital to my hedge fund 13f tracking series. (I can already tell you they are up so much this year due to their massive bets against the housing market and their smart decision to short the sh*t out of Bear Stearns).

In about a month or so, the next round of quarterly 13f's will be released and I will be expanding my coverage. I've received numerous questions asking if I was going to continue coverage on more hedge funds from the last set of 13fs but I figured I would just wait a few weeks until the next round are out since we are already so close; that way I can get a fresh start. I'm really going to buckle down on this next round of 13f's and cover a ton more hedge funds than last go-round. I will provide in depth coverage for some of the major funds, but other funds will merely be highlighted with top holdings and major changes. For the most part, I'll try to do detailed analyses. But, for some funds, its simply not worth it. SAC Capital for instance, due to their short-term trading segment, often holds in excess of 300 positions. Needless to say, going line by line on a 13f comparing quarter to quarter can get quite tedious. My focus in summarizing these reports is to find tangible investment theses that these funds are employing. Therefore, I mainly focus on value, activist, or macro oriented funds, rather than trading or quant funds.

Look for my hedge fund tracking series in the coming weeks. For those of you who didn't see my coverage of various hedge fund portfolios last quarter, check out my post here.

Short Sellers Ahoy

Taken from the Option Addict's wonderful post on Bank Short Ideas, I present to you this oh so wonderful chart of the 'oh-sh*t-we-might-be-screwed' financial institution otherwise known as Lehman Brothers (LEH). Pay particular attention to the decreasing volume on this 'rally' in LEH. Then look back to last month's 'rally' in LEH and pay attention to the exact same volume pattern. Hmm, I wonder what's next?! Short sellers ahoy.

Feature on Harbinger Capital's Philip Falcone

I want to give thanks to reader Alex for tipping me to this specific piece on Harbinger Capital's manager, Philip Falcone. I most likely would have never even seen this piece because its from a local Minnesota paper. Harbinger Capital is a successful activist hedge fund notable for making a ton of money by shorting the housing market. Additionally, they heavily shorted Bear Stearns before its subsequent meltdown. And, year to date, their fund is up 42.8% as of June.

The article covers Falcone's background and talks about Harbinger's activist ways. And, speaking of activism, our boy at Harbinger is up to no good once again, just recently opposing Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) takeover bid for Alpha Natural Resources (ANR). (Harbinger owns 18.4% of CLF and is opposed to the merger, as noted here).

At any rate, check it out because its an interesting profile for those curious about how Harbinger/Falcone operate. You can find the Minneapolis / St. Paul Star Tribune piece on Falcone here.

Quote of the Week 7/21/08

This week's quote was actually recently featured on Howard Lindzon's blog and I really liked it. Said by Robert W. Sarnoff,

"Finance is the art of passing money from hand to hand until it finally disappears."

Let's stay focused this week so we don't end up passing money to others.

Fertilizer

UBS is either still behind the times or they have finally started creating earnings models that are at least somewhat accurate. Only reason I point this out is because they have raised price targets on Potash (POT) and Agrium (AGU) yet again. Just last month, UBS raised its price target on Potash from $250 to $285. Then, today (not even a month later), they are out raising their price target on Potash from $285 to $320.

Additionally, a month ago UBS raised the target on Agrium (AGU). They raised its price target on the stock from $95 to $118. And, not even a month later, they are out boosting price targets today on the name again, this time from $118 to $130.

So, in 2 months time, UBS has raised POT's price target from $250 to $320 and AGU's price target from $95 to $130.

Clearly, some people (analysts, ahem) have been underestimating the true pricing power the fertilizer names have. Very limited supply + very strong demand = fertilizer company pricing power. Its really a simple concept, yet analysts and investment firms are just now latching on to the true potential these producers have. The prices simply keep going up because there is huge demand for it worldwide. Not to mention, an already limited supply becomes that more valuable because new supply cannot be brought to market for years (2012-2015) due to how long it takes to bring a new potash mine online.

Combine all of the above with the fact that these fertilizer companies are now selling potash to Asian buyers at a spot price of $1000 per tonne and you've got a huge recipe for success. Even with a slumping American economy and an overall bear market, there are bright spots to be found. Use any weakness in these names to add (or establish) your position.

This is the definition of secular growth.