The Next Financial Mania - BCA Research Special Report ~ market folly

Thursday, October 1, 2009

The Next Financial Mania - BCA Research Special Report

Embedded below is an interesting special report from BCA Research. This particular global investment strategy piece is authored by Francis Scotland who is currently Director of Global Macro Research at Brandywine Global Investment Management LLC, a boutique multi-product investment fund. Before Brandywine, Francis founded the publication you'll find below and was its editor from 1996 to 2005 where he provided investment ideas and strategy recommendations.

This 'Next Financial Mania' special report focuses on bubbles and tries to carve out possible candidates for the next bull market. After all, we've seen historically that new bulls arise from the bear market ashes. Francis goes on to depict that there have been various bubbles throughout certain decades such as gold in the 1970's, Japan in the 1980's, the Nasdaq in the 1990's and most recently, crude oil. (Make sure you check out the recent technical analysis video on crude oil we posted up a few days back). Focusing on what possibly could be the next bull market, Francis identifies a few candidates. Firstly, he starts with ideas that are not necessarily the best candidates as he singles out the 'Electrification Of Transport,' 'Gold and Inflation,' and 'Energy and Commodities'. However, he disregards them for the time for a tentative conclusion of possible bull markets in emerging market equities and real estate. This piece is macro thinking and research at its finest as speculators attempt to identify and profit from the next major shift in the world and subsequent markets. We highly enjoy reading macro research and have often posted up the thoughts of hedge fund Clarium Capital, including their most recent research commentary, 'Save Now, Invest Later.' This is the first time we've posted up anything from BCA Research, so hopefully you enjoy the document embedded below:

*Update, the report was removed per request of representatives from BCA Research

However, persistent readers can attempt to download the .pdf here or potentially find a copy of it on Scribd. While there is some prudent research included within the report, the idea of emerging market equities as the next bull market is by no means a new theme. However, Francis builds up his rationale nicely so it's an interesting read. Overall, it's intriguing to speculate what trends will arise from this bear market's remains when it is all said and done. While Francis has focused on future trends, we also posted up a report for those of you who might be interested in current trend and strategies. Head to our post on Goldman Sachs' current long & short strategies to check those out.

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