Summary of Great Investors' Best Ideas Conference (GIBI) Dallas 2018

The 2018 Great Investors' Best Ideas (GIBI) Dallas Conference recently concluded with proceeds benefiting The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research and the Vickery Meadow Youth Development Foundation.  Here's a brief summary of the event:


Great Investors Best Ideas Dallas Conference 2018


Lee Ainslie (Maverick Capital) talked with Lee Hobson (Highside Capital) about quantitative investing and utilizing its features to replicate various typical fundamental processes: screening companies, position sizing, data sets.  Maverick has been focused on the intersection of man and machine, instead of simply one versus the other.  Didn't pitch any individual names.  Maverick has launched four quant funds over the past few years that have higher turnover, in addition to their fundamental hedge fund.


Jim Grant (Grant's Interest Rate Observer):  Likes municipal closed end fund BlackRock Investment Quality Municipal Trust (BKN), says trading at 13% discount.  Also recommended shorting Matthews International (MATW) due to aggressive accounting, as well as fighting secular trends like the shift to cremation.


Ray Nixon Jr (Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss): Pitched General Electric (GE), sees valuation around $12 on a sum of the parts basis.  Obviously there's been a lot of volatility in this name.


Lisa Hess (SkyTop Capital): Bullish on the electric vehicle shift.  Pitched Sherritt International debt: 7.875% 2025, as well as Aumann in Germany, a copper coil play.  Also mentioned that Tesla (TSLA) is a religion, not a stock.


Michael Price (MFP Investors):  Bullish on AT&T (T) as well as Intel (INTC).


Marc Cohodes (Former Managing Director of Copper River Management):  Negative on MiMedx Group (MDXG).  Also mentioned Intec Pharma (NTEC) as a long.


Richard Mashaal (Senvest Management): Paramount Resources (Canadian E&P), sees a double or triple in next 1-1.5 years.  Cited increased production and hidden assets as reasons for bullishness, also thinks multiple could re-rate.


Ken Hersh (George W. Bush Presidential Center):  e-Sports is a huge business in early innings.  Sees 280 million fans going to 550 million in next 4-5 years.  Plays on the trend include Amazon (AMZN) due to their ownership of streaming platform Twitch, game maker Activision Blizzard (ATVI), and graphics card maker nVidia (NVDA).


Roger Staubach (Former Executive Chairman JLL Americas):  "Adversity reveals genius and prosperity conceals it."


Stay tuned in the next few weeks as we'll be covering a ton of investment conferences.

What We're Reading ~ 11/22/17

Honored to be listed: 100 best finance Twitter accounts you should follow [Forbes]

If you don't already, follow us on there @marketfolly [Twitter]

Bill Miller is staging another comeback [Washington Post]

Mohnish Pabrai on spinoffs [Forbes]

Profile of nVidia's founder/CEO [Fortune]

Profile of founder of dating app Bumble [Forbes]

Caesars returns to building its gaming empire [Barrons]

Very old profile of Lou Simpson when he was at GEICO [Washington Post]

Lessons from successful turnarounds [Boston Consulting Group]

Top 100 most valuable US brands [Brandz]

Is bitcoin another tulip craze or a legitimate investment? [Washington Post]

Spurned by ESPN, Barstool Sports is staying on offense [NYTimes]

Market Strategist Jeff Saut on Being Wrong and Still Making Money

Raymond James market strategist Jeff Saut is out with his latest commentary entitled, "Being Wrong and Still Making Money."  It's been a while since we checked in with Saut, so here's what he's saying these days.

He has been cautious over the past month or so and admits his stance has been 'too cautious.'  Saut then dove into the concept of being wrong and still making money.  He quotes Peter Bernstein, who wrote:

"The trick is to survive!  Performing that trick requires a strong stomach for being wrong because we are all going to be wrong more often then we expect. The future is not ours to know. But it helps to know that being wrong is inevitable and normal, not some terrible tragedy, not some awful failing in reasoning, not even bad luck in most instances. Being wrong comes with the franchise of an activity whose outcome depends on an unknown future (maybe the real trick is persuading clients of that inexorable truth)."

Saut then goes on to reference a piece that divides investors into three categories: Rabbits, Hunters, and Assassins, based on how they act in the market.  Written by Lee Freeman-Shor, it states:

"My findings suggest the odds are that an investor's great ideas will lose money. As such, before you invest a cent into an investment idea, it is imperative to have a plan of action as to what you will do if you find yourself in a losing position. When losing, the successful investors I worked with planned to become either Assassins or Hunters. Assassins sold losing investments that fell by a certain percentage or that declined by any amount and showed no signs of recovery after a certain period of time. Hunters invested a lesser amount at the outset and with a plan of buying significantly more shares if the price fell. Hunters were also unafraid to sell if it became clear that they had made a mistake. The bad investors didn't have a plan and consequently turned into Rabbits. When losing money, Rabbits neither bought more shares nor sold their holdings. Once forming an initial perception, Rabbits were achingly slow to change their opinion of a stock. Which tribe will you become a member of?"

As to where Saut is looking to put any money to work on pullbacks, he recommended Hilton (HLT), Flexion Therapeutics (FLXN), Nvidia (NVDA), Iridium (IRDM), and Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI). 

Embedded below is Jeff Saut's latest market commentary: Being Wrong and Still Making Money



You can download a .pdf copy here.

Josh Wolfe Short Intel, Long nVidia: Invest For Kids Chicago 2016

We're posting up notes from the Invest For Kids 2016 investment conference.  Next up is Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital who pitched short Intel (INTC) and long nVidia (NVDA).


Josh Wolfe's Presentation at Invest For Kids Chicago 2016

•    Founder of Lux Capital, $750 million VC fund

•    Science background

•    Has Bill Gates on one of his companies’ boards (only board other than Microsoft and Berkshire)

•    Seeks truly radical change and disruptive technology

•    Lux is differentiated by longer horizon of 10 years

•    Best way to predict the future is to invent it

•    Gap between sci-fi and sci-fact is shrinking

•    Companies

o    Kymeta: meta-physics in satellites for transportation applications; Gates on board of directors

o    Planet Labs: tiny satellites

o    Orbital Insight: data analytics and artificial intelligence using big data, often sold to hedge funds

o    Zoox: CPU (multi-cores) going to GPU (hundreds of cores); “these guys are the second coming of Jobs and Woz)

o    Nervana Systems: just sold to Intel

•    Short Intel (INTC) – it is a shell of its former self; it is trying to buy success via M&A; nobody coming out of top schools wants to work there

•    Long nVidia (NVDA), on the other hand, which is ascendant -- $850 million of FCF this year going to $1 billion next year

o    NVDA is the “arms dealer” to all of the companies we’re backing


Be sure to check out the rest of the presentations from Invest For Kids 2016.

Analysts' Best Stock Picks For 2011

Raymond James is out with its Analysts Best Picks for 2011 report. We highlighted their picks from 2010 and those performed pretty well with a 22.3% return. In fact, their annual selections have a 10 year average return of 12.4%.

The report details analysis of the fundamentals, growth prospects and risks associated with each stock. They've selected 13 stocks again this year and in alphabetical order, here are the Analysts' Best Stock Picks for 2011:

- Allscripts Healthcare (MDRX)
- Bank of America (BAC)
- CONSOL Energy (CNX)
- Covidien (COV)
- Digital Realty Trust (DLR)
- Equinix (EQIX)
- Halliburton (HAL)
- HealthSouth (HLS)
- Lincoln National (LNC)
- NVIDIA (NVDA)
- Panera Bread (PNRA)
- Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)
- Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)

There are some pretty familiar names in that bunch and a few prevalent themes. They've included multiple plays in the health space with MDRX, HLS, and COV. Also, technology is represented with two names in NVDA and EQIX. Also, energy/natural resources are abundant via PXD, CNX and HAL. We wanted to highlight a few of their selections below:

Bank of America (BAC): This name is interesting because it was also on the analysts' best picks list for 2010. However, over the course of last year the stock declined. Raymond James sees the price depreciation as further opportunity and is again a buyer of shares this year. Not to mention, some of the largest hedge funds in the game have sizable stakes in BAC, including John Paulson.

Halliburton (HAL): Arguably, the time to buy this name was during the Gulf oil spill when uncertainty abounded and the stock price was depressed. Yet, RJ feels the company will see near-term earnings momentum and a rebound in international activity. We've talked about how hedge funds are betting on higher oil prices as well.

Equinix (EQIX): This tech name is intriguing because it saw some volatility last year. And as we detailed in our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter months ago, a large shareholder (Shumway Capital) was reducing its position size and could be partially responsible for the volatility. Raymond James likes the company's dominant market position in the colocation market and data center industry.


Keep in mind that obviously with the market rally, a lot of these names have been bid up significantly already. Some strategists would obviously advocate waiting to purchase some of these names given that they're extended and knowing that the market doesn't go straight up forever. RJ's Chief Investment Strategist Jeff Saut expects a buyable pullback.

Embedded below is the full research on Analysts' Best Picks for 2011:



You can download a .pdf copy here.

For further research from this shop, head to the previous best stock picks for 2010 as well as Jeff Saut's risk management principles.