Showing posts sorted by relevance for query legal and general. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query legal and general. Sort by date Show all posts

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital Reveals Short Position

Disclosures of short selling in UK financial companies by hedge funds have been few and far between during the last six months. However, we've been able to track down a short sale because we follow hedge fund disclosures in UK markets.

Yesterday, the London Stock Exchange news service revealed that John Griffin’s Blue Ridge Capital was short 0.24% of Legal and General's common shares (FTSE: LGEN) on the 8th of January. This is a rare glance into a prominent hedge fund's short book as these firms typically keep these positions closely guarded. However, when they are required to file a disclosure (as is the case here), we get an occasional taste. You can view the rest of Blue Ridge's portfolio here.

Blue Ridge is not the only hedge fund shorting Legal and General as London based hedge fund manager Meritor Capital also held a 0.37% short position on the 8th of January. Meritor are fundamental stock-pickers that place emphasis on understanding businesses at ground level and meeting regularly with company management. They support this process with retained advisers, industry consultants and field visits.

Fellow UK hedge fund firm Lansdowne Partners have also had a short position in Legal and General fairly recently as they were short 1.76% of LGEN's shares on the 11th of November 2009. See our coverage of Lansdowne's portfolio here.

Just yesterday we talked about the fact that many hedge funds took it on the chin from their short positions in 2009 and examined the common link in companies they were shorting. There has always been an aura of mystique around short selling given the high level of secrecy. So, when we finally get a chance to see what they're shorting, it's exciting. We've gotten tastes of this recently when we saw some short positions from Whitney Tilson's hedge fund T2 Partners, and in the past through Bill Ackman's short of Realty Income, and David Einhorn's short of the ratings agencies. We'll continue to reveal these positions as we find them.


From Google Finance - Legal & General Group Plc is "a provider of risk, savings and investment management products in the United Kingdom. It operates in five segments: Risk, Savings, Investment management, International, and Group capital and financing. The Risk segment includes individual and group protection, individual and bulk purchase annuities, and general insurance, together with estate agencies and the housing related business conducted through its mortgage network. The Savings segment comprises non profit investment bonds, non profit pensions, individual savings account, retail unit trusts, and all with-profits products. The Investment management segment comprises institutional fund management and institutional unit trust business. The International segment comprises businesses in the United States, France, the Netherlands and emerging markets. On June 5, 2008, the Company acquired Suffolk Life Group Plc."


Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Lansdowne Partners Reduce Short in Legal and General (LON: LGEN)

UK hedge fund Lansdowne Partners recently disclosed activity on the London Stock Exchange. Paul Ruddock and Stephen Heinz's firm have reduced their short position in Legal and General (LON:LGEN). They have gone below the -0.25% threshold required to report a short position in the UK.

As such, it's difficult to say if they've covered their position entirely, or if they still maintain a smaller sized short position. Due to the reporting thresholds in place in the UK, we won't know unless they cross that line again.

Lansdowne held their short position in L&G for over two years as shares traded for less than 25p in January 2009 and today trade around 116p. We originally detailed this stake in our post on Lansdowne's short positions.  For other issues, there's LegalZoom.

Per Google Finance - "Legal & General Group Plc is a provider of risk, savings and investment management products in the United Kingdom. It operates in four segments: Risk, Savings, Investment management and International. The Risk segment includes individual and group protection, individual and bulk purchase annuities, general insurance and the housing network. The Savings segment includes unite trusts, individual savings accounts, investment bonds, non profit, pensions, structured products and with-profits products. The Investment management segment includes index funds, fixed income, risk management solutions, property and private equity. The International segment includes term insurance, group protection, wealth management and unit-linked savings."

Check out more hedge fund activity in the UK here.


Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Hedge Fund Lansdowne Partners' Short Positions

Today we're examining short positions in UK financial companies taken by Steven Heinz and Paul Ruddock's hedge fund Lansdowne Partners. Currently, they have four shorts in Old Mutual (OML), Legal & General (LGEN), Prudential Plc (PRU), and Aviva (AV). Kindly note that Prudential is a company based in the UK, not to be confused with the US company of the same name.

Over the last few months, we've highlighted Lansdowne's short position in Prudential several times during the period where Prudential attempted to buy AIG's Asian business arm, AIA. This position has received a lot of attention from the financial media as many argued Prudential was overpaying for AIA. Lansdowne's short thesis seems to extend beyond the AIA bid though, because they held the position many months before the bid was even made and they have not completely covered their short even after Prudential's bid failed.

Currently, Lansdowne's short of Prudential Plc stands at -1.18% of shares outstanding. They previously were short to the tune of -1.46% of shares back on May 5th, 2010 so they have covered a partial position but still maintain quite a hefty bet. As you'll see from our examination of Heinz and Ruddock's other shorts, Lansdowne tend to hold their shorts for longer periods of time.

All of the short positions listed below are currently still open. Disclosure rules on short positions in UK financial companies state that fund managers who are net short a UK financial sector company are required to disclose the position if it is greater than 0.25% of the firm's issued share capital. In addition, the hedge fund must disclose each time it increases the short by 0.1% of issued share capital. Also, they must disclose when the position falls below the 0.25% threshold. For a full list of companies deemed 'financial sector companies,' head to the FSA website.

While these regulations are obviously tedious for the hedge funds themselves, it's a prime example of how UK governing bodies are increasing regulation and it's interesting to compare it to the SEC's requirements. The UK is more 'fun' for Market Folly because it reveals short positions of various hedge funds and we get to highlight these positions. In the United States, these positions are closely guarded and rarely revealed so it will be intriguing to see if the SEC steps up regulatory requirements regarding public disclosure of short positions. Over a year ago, we highlighted how rampant public disclosure of short positions could possibly be a bad idea. But at the same time, increased regulation is definitely needed so maybe a compromise would be revealing shorts to the governing bodies, but not releasing them publicly. That is an entirely separate debate that we'll save for another time.

Turning back to hedge fund Lansdowne Partners' short positions, we see that they have been short the insurance company Legal and General for well over a year. This is not the first time this company has appeared in our hedge fund portfolio tracking series either. Back in May, we saw that Ken Griffin's investment firm Citadel was short Legal and General as well. Since then though, Citadel have reduced the position under the 0.25% threshold. Below are tables breaking down Lansdowne's various short positions:

Legal & General (LGEN)
February 6th, 2009: Lansdowne was short -0.47% of shares
August 26th, 2009: They increased their short to -1.16%
November 12th, 2009: Increased to -1.76%
June 11th, 2010: Reported as -1.02%

Old Mutual (OML)
February 18th, 2009: Lansdowne was short -0.39% of shares
April 20th, 2009: -0.75%
May 7th, 2009: -0.51%
October 13th, 2009: -0.41%
November 27th, 2009: -0.49%

Prudential Plc (PRU)
May 22nd, 2009: -0.95%
December 10th, 2009: -0.79%
December 15th, 2009: -0.43%
April 26th, 2010: -0.97%
May 5th, 2010: -1.46%
May 28th, 2010: -1.18%

Aviva (AV)
February 13th, 2009: -0.34%
March 26th, 2010: fell below the 0.25% threshold
June 11th, 2010: -0.49%

So, after previously covering the majority of their short in Aviva back in March, Lansdowne has re-shorted the name. And, as you can tell from above, Lansdowne typically holds their core short positions for an extensive period of time, trading around partial positions in the mean time.

Last month, Lansdowne's UK Equity Fund was -3.98% for May but still up 0.67% for the year as detailed in our May hedge fund performance update. You can view our coverage of Lansdowne's new longs here as well as our posts on other hedge fund UK positions.


Wednesday, June 12, 2013

A Tale of Two Gas Stations: Long Susser Holdings, Short CST Brands

The following is a guest post from Tsachy Mishal of TAM Capital Management, who presents a look at a gas station pair trade, if you will.  Tsachy also runs the blog Capital Observer.

Market Folly readers will recall that hedge fund Scout Capital recently disclosed a position in CST Brands and this write-up presents a different viewpoint.


A Tale of Two Gas Stations: Susser Holdings & CST Brands


Susser Holdings (SUSS) and CST Brands (CST) both operate gas stations with convenience stores attached. Susser Holdings came public in 2006 with private equity backing, while CST Brands is a recent spin-off from Valero (VLO). On the surface a spin-off would seem far more attractive than a private equity backed IPO, but looks can be deceiving.


Business

Over 80% of Susser’s gas stations are located in Texas, the second fastest growing state in the US. CST’s gas stations are located across the southern US and Canada, with about a third being in Texas. CST mentions Texas numerous times in their Form-10 as a stand out economy and a driver of growth From the CST Form 10:

"The economy in Texas has fared better than many other parts of the U.S., partly supported by a solid economy, a relatively stable housing market and strong population growth and job creation. We have also benefited from the significant increase in economic activity in Texas that has resulted from the increased oil and gas drilling activity in Texas. We have a large number of convenience stores in Texas, and these operations have benefited from the increase in population resulting from employees of the oil and gas industry who have moved to Texas to support that industry."

On the basis of location, Susser has a clear advantage over CST with a much greater percentage of its gas stations being in Texas.

Susser earns the majority of its profits from convenience store sales while CST Brands is more heavily dependent on fuel sales. In 2012 59.7% of Susser’s gross profits came from merchandise sales, while 40% of CST Brands’ gross profits came from merchandise. The reason for this is that Susser’s average convenience store footprint is 3,600 square feet, while CST’s average footprint is 2,200 square feet.

Susser’s larger footprint allows it to sell fresh food and earn more from its convenience stores. CST Brands realizes that it is preferable to have a larger convenience store footprint and is planning larger footprints for its new stores but that doesn’t help its existing store base.

CST’s heavy dependence on fuel sales is a negative for a number of reasons. As Americans have been driving less and driving more fuel efficient cars, fuel usage in the US has been declining. By contrast, convenience store sales have been steadily increasing. Additionally, 2012 was an abnormally profitable year for fuel sales that is unlikely to be repeated.

As oil prices decline, gas stations are slow to lower prices. The $35 oil price decline in the second quarter of 2012 was a bonanza for gas station owners. In 2012 fuel gross margin for CST brands increased by 2 cents a gallon or $40 million, primarily as a result of this extreme downside volatility in fuel prices.

It is very unlikely that we see such an extreme move in oil prices this year. As a result, year over year fuel gross margin should decrease by close to 2 cents a gallon resulting in lower year over year earnings and EBITDA for all gas stations with a disproportionate effect on CST Brands due to its reliance on fuel sales.


Operation Performance

In 2012, Susser had same store merchandise sales growth of 6.6% and per store fuel gallon growth of 5.8%. CST does not provide historical same store sales numbers but does provide “per store” figures. In 2012 “per store” merchandise sales actually showed a slight decrease while per store fuel gallon sales showed a less than 1% increase.

In the first quarter of 2013 CST provided SSS figures for the first time and showed US SSS down 1.6% compared to Susser growing 4.2%. This is likely attributable to CST’s older stores and larger dependence on cigarette sales, which have been in secular decline. Cigarettes make up 40% of merchandise sales for CST compared to 19% for Susser. Dollar stores have recently moved into this category, which will increase pressure. Susser has clearly enjoyed superior operating performance to CST Brands.


Management

The Susser family has been in the gas station business since the 1930’s. Sam L. Susser, the CEO, joined the company in 1988, when Susser operated five stores and had revenues of $8.4 million. Sam Susser grew up in the gas station business, has 25 years of experience and a proven track record.

Kimberly S. Bowlers is the CEO of CST Brands. Below is her bio from the CST Form 10:

"Ms. Bowers was elected Chief Executive Officer and President of CST effective January 1, 2013. Ms. Bowers served as Executive Vice President and General Counsel of Valero from October 2008, and previously served as Senior Vice President and General Counsel of Valero since April 2006. Before that, she was Valero’s Vice President–Legal Services from 2003 to 2006. Ms. Bowers joined Valero’s legal department in 1997. Ms. Bowers was elected to the board of directors of WPX Energy, Inc. on December 30, 2011."

In other words Ms. Bowers, the CEO of CST Brands, has been a lawyer her entire career and has little operating experience. I’m certain she was a very capable lawyer but that does not make her a capable CEO. If experience counts for anything, then Susser has the superior management.


Valuation

Considering that Susser has the superior store locations, a superior business mix, superior performance and superior management one might conclude that Susser should trade at a premium to CST Brands. One would be wrong. Susser Holdings trades for less than 6.3 times EV/LTM EBITDA, adjusting for their ownership in SUSP (slide 21).

CST Trades for roughly 8 times EV/LTM EBITDA. Instead of trading at a premium Susser trades at a greater than 20% discount to CST Brands. This does not take into account that had CST been a public company they would have incurred additional expenses. Additionally, on a forward basis I believe Susser trades at a greater than 30% discount to CST Brands.


Conclusion

CST Brands is a case of “You Can Be A Stock Market Genius” gone awry. In investors haste to buy a “spin- off” they have valued a poorly performing company at an undeserved premium to one if its closest, better performing peers. There are too many geniuses out there right now.


Catalyst

CST Brands has not given any forward guidance so investors have had to create their own earnings models. Many investors seem to have simply extrapolated forward an increase in earnings and EBITDA from 2012 to 2013 for CST. This ignores the one time bonanza in fuel margins in 2012 ($40 million) and the increased costs of being a public company ($20 million). When CST reports second quarter earnings it should become clear that estimates are pie in the sky.


Full disclosure: TAM Capital Management is long Susser Holdings (SUSS) and short CST Brands (CST).

Embedded below is a .pdf copy of TAM Capital's thesis:




We've posted some other investment theses from TAM Capital here.


Monday, September 21, 2009

Intellectual Property In Hedge Fund Land

The following is a guest post from Ilene over at Phil's Stock World.

The Limits of Intellectual Property
Are There Any in the Hedge Fund World?

By Ilene at Phil's Stock World

So who is Eric Falkenstein and how did he become an ex-portfolio manager with no portfolio to manage?

Eric graduated from Northwestern with a PhD in economics and wrote his dissertation on cross sectional stock returns and volatility. Prior to joining Telluride as a hedge fund manager in 2004, he had been using strategies that drew upon his education, previous work running his own fund and a fund, Deephaven.

Eric resigned his position at Telluride in September, 2006. Several months later, Telluride initiated a lawsuit claiming that strategies used by Eric belonged to Telluride. The claims in the lawsuit would require a court to determine the nature of the components of the strategy Eric had been using and decide who owned them. This is more complicated than it may appear.

Consider this analogy. Baker E goes to work baking sugar cookies for Bakery B. E, who’s been a baker for ten years, has a favorite recipe calling for flour, butter, sugar, eggs and baking soda. During the next few years, E tinkers with the ratios of ingredients and experiments with chocolate frosting and colorful sprinkles, but never deviates significantly from the basic recipe.

Then one day, Baker E decides to leave Bakery B and open a Cookie Shoppe C in another town. Bakery B initiates legal action to prevent E from operating C, arguing that E’s cookie recipe will inevitably be derived from privileged information gained while working for B.

In response, Baker E argues that his recipe is a standard sugar cookie recipe, using common ingredients. He argues that B cannot own the sugar cookie constituents (sugar, flour, butter, etc.), and that B needs to define the specific recipe in its complaint. Bakery B argues they will provide that, after full discovery has been completed (which could be a few years).

And so began Eric’s adventure into IP law.

In a hedge fund “trade secret” case, the “ingredients” are variables used to construct a fund manager’s strategy, and the use of these variables may vary. In contrast to cookie baking, the manner in which the variables may be used are not obvious. Because the analysis is not intuitively understood by lay persons, any assertion by the complaining party may appear tenable.

Broad financial concepts of profitability, volatility, and mean-variance optimization and virtually any financial ratio or indicator may be particularly troublesome. While lawyers and courts are generally familiar with cookies, they are not familiar with hedge fund strategies. They must differentiate whether certain variables and their use are in the public domain or within the definition of a trade secret, and what kinds of ‘ideas’ fall under the confidential agreement. They might also need to decide whether the variables were used by the ex-employee prior to his work with the complaining party.

In Telluride Asset Management LLC v. Eric Falkenstein, Telluride claimed that Eric was violating his confidentiality agreement, which included trade secrets, but also ‘all inventions, discoveries, computer software programs, trade concepts, designs, patents, ideas … conceived or developed by Employee’ during his employment. Eric claimed his only planned overlap with his former work pertained to common tools, ones he used for a decade prior to his work at Telluride.

Eric’s story received some media attention from Megan Barnett in May of 2008. She wrote in “Cudgel Over the Quants,” Portfolio.com:

“Eric Falkenstein isn’t your typical 42-year-old hedge fund manager. Instead of trading stocks all day or courting new investors, he spends his time updating his blog, researching equity strategies, and talking to his lawyer. He’s a hedge fund portfolio manager who is legally restrained from managing hedge fund portfolios.

But Falkenstein didn’t embezzle funds, swindle unsuspecting investors, or violate insider-trading laws. Rather, he quit his job one September day in 2006 and he hasn’t been able to work since…

Welcome to the murky world of hedge fund trade secrets, where your likelihood of getting a new job may be directly related to your employer’s inclination toward litigation. These types of trade-secret suits are generating a controversy in the hedge fund industry. Is the litigation little more than a bullying tactic to keep valuable employees from heading to a competitor, as the blogger Equity Private suggests? Is the specific knowledge of trading strategies one gains at a hedge fund legitimately unusable in any future endeavor? Or are traders stealing secrets with the hopes of making more money from them someplace else?”

Trade secret suits are especially difficult to defend in many states because the trade secret does not have to be defined and can be changed after discovery ensues.

As anonymous blogger Private Equity commented on Eric’s case in “IP Litigation Arbitrage Tactics,” April, 2008:
Work for a hedge fund, perhaps as a quant, depart and try to work in the field again. Instead of attempting to directly enforce a non-compete agreement, the hedge fund might bring an intellectual property case based on trade secrets. Now the non-compete provisions, which on their own are not likely to work well, merely become further evidence of the former employee’s bad faith.

If you are a clever hedge fund, you will then seal your complaint, after all, it contains sensitive trade secrets. What sort of secrets? Let’s take an example, perhaps from a temporary restraining order [TRO] granted to Telluride Asset Management against their former employee, Eric Falkenstein….

And how might you, as a hedge fund in this position, respond to the suggestion that these factors and mean-variance optimization might be rather obviously in the "public domain" and therefore beyond enforcement as a "trade secret"? First, in your complaint, indicate that your trade secret is "a specific application of mean-variance optimization that will be defined after discovery." That will delay the argument until a fishing expedition can be conducted and a connection made. Then, insist that your former employee disclose the entire model to prove it doesn’t infringe…

Here’s the great part: As a hedge fund, you don’t even need to be granted the TRO. You merely file it and get discovery going. The effect is the same…

Discovery is key in the tactic. The hedge fund can insist on a core dump of, for example, every email the former employee has written since employment, including material from personal email accounts.

Well, sure, that’s painful, but no big deal. The former employee can just go back to work and make money to pay the defense lawyers. Sure, if you can find an employer willing to retain you and your methods when it might mean unlimited liability for every dollar you make for them thereafter…

For Eric, the experience was emotionally exhausting and extremely expensive. Telluride’s lawyers examined 10 years worth of data from his hard drives, including personal computers, emails, every aspect of Eric’s life as recorded on his computer and in trails of online activity. Because the specific ‘ideas/designs/trade secrets’ were not defined at the outset, lawyers searching for evidence of stolen IP could identify it after seeing all his data. Again, the search, productive or not, could take years.

"The nasty thing about intellectual property cases is that one can use it to start discovery on a broad scope of information, and then generate a post hoc definition of what is covered. The key is that overbreadth in technical matters is not obvious. For example, one can say, "he took the secret of mean-variance optimization", and by the time the court figures out such a claim is absurdly overbroad, a more tenable claim can be made, such as ‘a specific application of mean-variance optimization that will be defined after discovery’. To the defendant, both claims place all his activities as potentially poisoned, so the effect on the defendant’s ability to work is unabated. But to the court, the latter works as long as he has some deleted files on his home computer related to his work, and ‘related’ can be rather boring stuff that the court does not recognize as well-known, such as a spreadsheet with S&P returns and Excel formulae." Eric, Goldman Quant Case Continues, Falkenblog, August, 2009.

In addition, Eric was unemployable as a hedge fund manager while living and paying for his legal fees out of savings. These factors ultimately led to Eric filing a counter-claim and the suit being settled. Eric notes, "The settlement gives me complete freedom, but there’s a stain there. I could have burnt more money litigating, but my chances of receiving damages that would cover legal expenses and opportunity costs were small, and a final judgment would have given me no greater ability to ply my wares than the settlement.”

Interview: Present and Future.
Ilene: Thank you for filling in all the background information regarding your case. How was the claim against you eventually resolved?

Eric: At our final hearing where I got three counterclaims inserted into the case, the judge strongly suggested mediation. So, with the judge’s encouragement, we entered mediation and settled our dispute in a few hours. We agreed not to re-file our claims, and that I can use anything I used at Telluride going forward.

Ilene: They seemed willing to settle after you made certain counter-claims, what were they?

Eric: The main one was tortuous interference, i.e. that Telluride asserted its IP and contractual rights in bad faith and in a knowingly overbroad manner that directly affected a specific business deal.

Ilene: What were the components of your model–the variables you looked at which Telluride claimed constituted trade secrets, and which you claimed were variables you previously used and variables in the public domain?

Eric: In response to an inquiry by Telluride as to my proposed venture, I mentioned that the only similarities were common tools that I thought I had full right to use, factors like profitability, changes in equity, volatility, accruals, and the process of mean-variance optimization. I thought being explicit would make it clear I merely wanted to do what I had done previously, using factors I used before, factors that are well-known in the academic literature. This was incredibly naïve on my part. My disclosure was used as a prime exhibit in their complaint against me as ‘proof’ I was violating the confidentiality agreement. That is, I admitted using factors used at Telluride, and supposedly after they showed me how these factors work, my future use could not help but be derived from this privileged knowledge. To someone who has read the literature on these common factors, and how they were applied, this seemed insane, but to a judge it was not obvious, and once IP litigation starts, as a defendant you’re in the penalty box.

Ilene: Are you permitted to explain how your strategy worked?

Eric: There’s a sealed list of concepts they assert are their confidential information in our settlement. If I work with you I can explain in detail the specific concepts in dispute, as defined by Telluride, but not otherwise. It’s been several years, and I’m always working on new ideas, making these specifics totally uninteresting to me, so it’s really a moot point. The key is, I’m no longer a liability, because I bought a ‘perpetual license’ to these concepts (I paid secret amount ‘x’ for this license). I have a right to use anything Telluride could claim via my license.

Ilene: One aspect of this that is probably not generally appreciated is that after the settlement, it was difficult for you to find work. In fact, up until today, you’ve been unemployed and looking for work. Why was it so hard?

Eric: I cannot discuss my track record at Telluride. Thus, my largest datapoint as a portfolio manager was a black hole. Furthermore, larger institutions are especially wary of managers with ‘hair’ on them via working at large firms, or having engaged in litigation.

Ilene: If you could go back and do things differently, what would you change? What would you suggest to other hedge fund managers in a similar position to the position you were in?

Eric: Well, you can insulate yourself in various ways—negotiating ex ante that you can use your track record going forward, actually throw away any computers used contemporaneous to your employment, examine a potential employer for previous litigation tactics–but ultimately, it’s about judging people’s reasonableness. Like judging a date on how they treat the waiter, be aware of unreasonable behavior, and then ratchet your precautions accordingly. You don’t want to start every relationship assuming the worst but you need to be careful. The key to having good relationships is picking reasonable partners, as opposed to constructing a bunch of formal legal agreements. Good faith goes a long way.

Ilene: Yes, I agree – that’s certainly true in all relationships. If you could change the way the law deals with trade secret litigation, what changes would you recommend?

Eric: First, I would make firms define their trade secrets or specific concepts subject to any confidentiality agreement prior to discovery. I would also like a ‘loser pays’ rule, because you can win your lawsuit and still lose, because you cannot count on getting damages from a counter-claim. This happening is probably unlikely.

But here is a novel item worth noting. You can see the model I proposed when I came to Telluride, it is in the Hennepin County documents (unsealed). It presents a rather straightforward model based on several exclusionary rules, or sequence of sorts. For example, to simplify, say I arrived at Telluride with a strategy in which I construct a long portfolio by first targeting only firms with market caps greater than $500MM, then take those top 200 companies with the highest cash-flow, and then take the top 100 within that which had the best momentum. Now, Telluride basically argued I could not use these factors because they were inevitably derived from special knowledge acquired while at Telluride. The court eventually ruled they could not own these factors (profitability, accruals, capital issuance, and volatility) or processes (mean variance optimization) in general. So Telluride then merely said, we own them in a particular usage to be defined after discovery, and the court let them proceed on that path.

Implicitly, the court anticipated some set of applications of this logic would be forbidden by me, but it was never clear to me what they could then own in practice. That is, if I took the model above, and say changed it while I worked at Telluride so that I only used companies with market caps greater than $600MM, and the top 220 highest profitability, and then top 100 by momentum, how does that modification affect what I cannot do outside the firm given our confidentiality agreement? What about using $700MM as a cutoff, and 300 top cash flow firms? What if I used a new algorithm that, say, transformed cash flow and momentum into percentiles, then added those numbers together, and chose the top 100 for my longs? How is the line drawn in these cases for parameters and other algorithms use these same factors? It was never clear to me what the end game would look like, because if I enter a firm with an algorithm which uses a set of inputs, I clearly can use that, but then I make modest changes. If they own a family of things extrapolated from those changes, how is this determined? In an algorithm, you often can’t simply ‘split the difference’.

Or to take another example, I planned on using mean variance optimization going forward, and Telluride objected. After some months, the court agreed with me that they did not own this concept in general, but they could own it in some way they could define after looking through all my hard drives. Mean-variance optimization is very well known, and basically a way to generate portfolio weights. I could not imagine the provenance of the parameters could affect whether I use this very well known technique. It’s a well defined problem, so the solution is trivial. You can even buy software that does it.

I wonder how often people are constrained in this way, prevented from using common tools because these were used while working at a firm where they had signed a confidentiality agreement. You don’t hear about it much, but litigation databases are hard to search, and people don’t like to talk about it.

Ilene: I understand you wrote your book, Finding Alpha, during this period of time. Would you tell us a bit about your book?

Eric: Finding Alpha is about the search for ‘risk adjusted outperformance’, or alpha. My main argument is that the ‘risk adjustment’ is trivial because risk and return are not correlated, so the expected return on most assets should be the same. The absence of a risk premium in so many domains is not an anomaly, but an empirical fact, and I present a novel scope of information relevant to this. Further, this pattern is a consequence of a modification about how people internalize their wealth, which is relative to others, as opposed to comparing to having absolutely nothing. So it’s mainly an argument against the conventional theory that risk generates a positive return premium, and it gets into technical issues about utility functions. The practical application is you should only expect to make a return above, say, the BBB libor rate, by being smart, not merely taking some measure of risk.

This is a pretty profound difference from the standard theory. Some rather straightforward investment strategies are implied as having higher returns for the same level of volatility or beta if this is true. Also, as alpha is a risk adjusted return, and ‘risk’ is not unambiguously defined, there’s a lot of room for shenanigans.

Ilene: Speaking of shenanigans, do you have any thoughts about the Goldman Quant Case?

Eric: The fact this is considered a criminal, not a civil matter, highlights the political muscle of Goldman. From what I have read this ex-Goldman employee seems guilty, in that he came to Goldman with no trading experience, left with lots of code explicitly mentioned in various agreements, and suddenly was worth $1.2MM to a new employer. It seems rather incredible to believe be this programmer developed $1.2MM worth of alpha without appropriating Goldman’s IP.

Ilene: Did the financial meltdown of last year surprise you? Did your models (if you were still applying them) predict any kind of sudden market decline?

Eric: I did not see it coming, but the collapse tended to hurt firms that statistically underperform over the long run, and in that way is consistent with my models. However, the rebound this year did just the opposite, where the longer run losers have done especially well this year. That’s not inconsistent with my models, but in bear markets, the bad stocks (high volatility, low profitability, high capital issuance, negative momentum) do really, really badly, and the good stocks relatively better. In the snap back, however, the performance is strongly anomalous, though temporarily.

Ilene: Where do you think the market is headed now?

Eric: Up for stocks, down for Treasuries, up for corporate debt. I don’t like a lot of longer term signals, as I think government is ascendant in all sorts of bad ways that will hurt productivity growth in the long run. But that’s a long run effect. In the short run, people were expecting another Great Depression and that’s not going to happen, so banks and REITs have a lot of room for recovery.

Ilene: What are your plans next?

Eric: I just took a job with a local trading company, working on various quantitative projects. It’s a local option market making firm.

Ilene: Excited?

Eric: Sure, new opportunities are always exciting. When I stop getting excited, I’ll retire, or become a risk manager :-)

Ilene: Well, thank you Eric. I’ve certainly learned a lot and hope you’ve enjoyed sharing your experiences and thoughts with us.

****
Note: For further reading, public documents filed on the case are online at http://www.efalken.com/papers/legaldocs.html.



Thanks again to Ilene for the guest post. You can check out other intriguing market articles over at Phil's Stock World.


Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Doug Kass' Predictions For 2010

Hedge fund manager, noted short seller, and financial columnist Doug Kass is out with his annual list of predictions for the impending year. We covered his 2009 predictions at the beginning of last year so it's always interesting to see his picks.

One third of his surprises came true in 2003, nearly 50% of them were true in 2004, almost 50% were true for 2007, and 60% of his 2008 surprise predictions came true. Notably, Kass also pegged the bottom in this year's market back in March. However, he didn't truly capture all of the gains as his hedge fund was up 17% for the year last we heard.

Here are his predictions (surprises) for 2010 and keep in mind that he is 'swinging for the fences' here:

  1. There is a glaring upside to first-quarter 2010 corporate profits: (up 100% year over year) and first-quarter 2010 GDP (up 4.5%). It grows clear that, owing to continued draconian cost cuts, coupled with a series of positive economic releases and a long list of company profit guidance increases in mid to late January and early February, there is a very large upside to first-quarter GDP (up 4.5%) and, even more important, to S&P profit growth (which doubles!). The upside on both counts is in sharp contrast to more muted growth expectations. While corporate managers, economists and strategists raise earnings per share, full-year growth and S&P target estimates, surprisingly, the U.S. equity market fails to respond positively to the much better growth dynamic, and the S&P 500 remains tightly range-bound (between 1,050 and 1,150) into spring 2010.
  2. Housing and jobs fail to revive: An outsized first-quarter 2010 GDP (up 4.5.%) print is achieved despite a still moribund housing market and without any meaningful improvement in the labor market (excluding the increase in census workers) as corporations continue to cut costs and show little commitment to adding permanent employees.
  3. The US dollar explodes higher: After dropping by over 40% from 2001 to 2008, the U.S. dollar continued to spiral lower in the last nine months of 2009. Our currency’s recent strength will persist, however, surprising most market participants by continuing to rally into first quarter 2010. In fact, the U.S. dollar will be the strongest major world currency during the first three or four months of the new year.
  4. The price of gold topples: Gold’s price plummets to $900 an ounce by the beginning of second quarter 2010. Unhedged, publicly held gold companies report large losses, and the gold sector lies at the bottom of all major sector performers. Hedge fund manager John Paulson abandons his plan to bring a new dedicated gold hedge fund to market.
  5. Central banks tighten earlier than expected: China, facing reported inflation approaching 5%, tightens monetary and fiscal policy in March, a month ahead of a Fed tightening of 50 basis points, which, with the benefit of hindsight, is a policy mistake.
  6. A Middle East peace is upended due to an attack by Israel on Iran: Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities before midyear. An already comatose U.S. consumer falls back on its heels, retail spending plummets, and the personal savings rate approaches 10%. The first-quarter spike in domestic growth is short-lived as GDP abruptly stalls.
  7. Stocks drop by 10% in the first half of next year: In the face of renewed geopolitical tensions and reduced worldwide growth expectations, stocks drop as the threat of an economic double-dip grows. Surprisingly, though, the drop in the major indices is contained, and the U.S. stock market retreats by less than 10% from year-end 2009 levels.
  8. Goldman Sachs goes private: Goldman Sachs stock drops back to $125 to $130 a share, within $15 of the warrant exercise price that Warren Buffett received in Berkshire Hathaway's late 2008 investment in Goldman Sachs. Sick of the unrelenting compensation outcry, government jawboning and associated populist pressures, Warren Buffett teams up with Goldman Sachs to take the investment firm private. The deal is completed by year-end.
  9. Second half 2010 GDP growth turns flat: The Goldman Sachs transaction stabilizes the markets, which are stunned by an extended Mideast conflict that continues throughout the summer and into the early fall. While a diplomatic initiative led by the U.S. serves to calm Mideast tensions, flat second-half U.S. GDP growth and a still high 9.5% to 10.0% unemployment rate caps the U.S. stock market’s upside and leads to a very dull second half, during which share prices have virtually flatlined (with surprisingly limited rallies and corrections throughout the entire six-month period). For the full year, the S&P 500 exhibits a 10% decline vs. the general consensus of leading strategists for about a 10% rise in the major indices.
  10. Rate-sensitive stocks outperform; metals underperform: Utilities are the best performing sector in the U.S. stock market in 2010; gold stocks are the worst performing group, with consumer discretionary coming in as a close second.
  11. Treasury yields fall: The yield of the 10-year U.S. note drops from 4% at the end of the first quarter to under 3% by the summer and ends the year at approximately the same level (3%). Despite the current consensus that higher inflation and interest rates will weigh on the fixed-income markets, bonds surprisingly outperform stocks in 2010. A plethora of specialized domestic and non-U.S. fixed-income exchange-traded funds are introduced throughout the year, setting the stage for a vast speculative top in bond prices, but that is a late 2011 issue.
  12. Warren Buffett steps down: Warren Buffett announces that he is handing over the investment reins to a Berkshire outsider and that he plans to also announce his in-house successor as chief operating officer by Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in 2011.
  13. Insider trading charges expand: The SEC alleges, in a broad-ranging sting, the existence of extensive exchange of information that goes well beyond Galleon’s Silicon Valley executive connections. Several well-known long-only mutual funds are implicated in the sting, which reveals that they have consistently received privileged information from some of the largest public companies over the past decade.
  14. The SEC launches an assault on mutual fund expenses: The SEC restricts 12b-1 mutual fund fees. In response to the proposal, asset management stocks crater.
  15. The SEC restricts short-selling: The SEC announces major short-selling bans after stocks sag in the second quarter.
  16. More hedge fund tumult emerges: Two of the most successful hedge fund managers extant announce their retirement and fund closures. One exits based on performance problems, the other based on legal problems.
  17. Pandit is out and Cohen is in at Citigroup: Citigroup’s Vikram Pandit is replaced by former Shearson Lehman Brothers Chairman Peter Cohen. Cohen replaces a number of senior Citigroup executives with Ramius Partners colleagues. Sandy Weill rejoins Citigroup as a senior consultant.
  18. A weakened Republican party is in disarray: Sarah Palin announces that she has separated from her husband, leaving the Republican party firmly in the hands of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. An improving economy in early 2010 elevates President Obama’s popularity back to pre-inauguration levels, and, despite the market’s second-quarter decline, the country comes together after the Middle East conflict, producing a tidal wave of populism that moves ever more dramatically in legislation and spirit. With the Democratic tsunami (part deux) revived, the party wins November midterm elections by a landslide.
  19. Tiger Woods makes a comeback: Tiger Woods and his wife reconcile in early 2010, and he returns earlier than expected to the PGA Tour. After announcing that his wife is pregnant with their third child, both the PGA Tour’s and Tiger Woods’ popularity rise to record levels, and the golfer signs a series of new commercial contracts that insure him a record $150 million of endorsement income in 2011.
  20. The New York Yankees are sold to a Jack Welch-led investor group: The Steinbrenner family decides, for estate purposes, to sell the New York Yankees to a group headed by former General Electric Chairman Jack Welch.

Intriguing picks from Kass as always as many of you are already shaking your head in disbelief or nodding in agreement with certain predictions of his. For some more pertinent ideas, check out the top ten investment themes for 2010. There are a few predictions concerning hedge funds on Kass' list and we'd agree that insider trading charges are certain to expand. When you have Raj Rajaratnam's Galleon Group being taken down and questions surrounding Steven Cohen's SAC Capital, you know the SEC isn't messing around anymore.

Kass also opines that more hedge fund 'tumult' will emerge and we could agree with that premise as well, given all the insider trading hoopla as of late. He also feels a major fund will shut down due to poor performance too. There are always funds shutting down each year due to poor performance, but we'll have to wait and see if any major players fall victim. Lastly, Kass mentions that the SEC could possibly restrict short selling, a decision that would wildly impact the hedge fund industry no doubt.

For more from Kass, here's the Barron's article outlining his predictions in-depth. For more on Kass' hedge fund, including his decision to introduce long investments at his previously short biased fund, head over to his interview with Barron's. Make sure to also see how well Kass did with his surprises for 2009 now that the year is coming to an end and also his list of signs needed for a market recovery.


Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Hedge Fund Lansdowne Partners Increase Prudential Plc Short

Paul Ruddock and Steven Heinz's UK-based equity long/short hedge fund Lansdowne Partners has increased its short position in London listed financial services group Prudential plc (LON: PRU).

According to a filing made on October 6th, Lansdowne now hold a short position equivalent to -1.6% of Prudential's outstanding shares. The hedge fund has actually held a short in this company since 2009. In February 2009, their short represented -0.45% of outstanding shares and that position was gradually increased throughout 2010 and 2011 (now at its highest point).

Prudential Plc is Lansdowne Partners only disclosed short position in a UK listed financial company at the moment. As we have reported previously, during 2010 and 2011 Lansdowne reduced their shorts in Old Mutual (LON: OML), Legal and General (LON: LGEN) and Aviva (LON: AV.) to below the regulatory threshold of -0.25%.

In our September hedge fund performance numbers post, we highlighted that Lansdowne's $8 billion UK equity fund was -1.59% in September and -15.16% for the year at the end of September.

In other UK hedge fund activity, we also just detailed how hedge fund manager Odey added to their RSM Tenon Group Position. You can also read Odey's market outlook as well.

Per Goodle Finance - "Prudential plc (Prudential) is an international financial services group, with operations in Asia, the United States and the United Kingdom. Prudential is structured around four business units: Prudential Corporation Asia, Jackson National Life Insurance Company (Jackson), Prudential UK insurance operations and M&G. Prudential Corporation Asia's core business is life insurance, health and protection, either attached to a life policy or on a standalone basis, and mutual funds. It also provides selected personal lines property and casualty insurance, group insurance, institutional fund management and consumer finance (Vietnam only). In the fund management business Prudential holds a 49% stake in a joint venture with ICICI, in the People’s Republic of China, it had a 49 % stake in a joint venture with CITIC and in Hong Kong it has a 36% equity stake in a joint venture with Bank of China International."


Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Bill Ackman's Question & Answer Session at the Value Investing Congress

Instead of giving a presentation at the Value Investing Congress, Pershing Square hedge fund manager Bill Ackman engaged in a question and answer session. We'll dive into each of the various topics he addressed below. Keep in mind that we've published notes from John Burbank and Lee Ainslie's presentations, as well as further notes from day 1 of the Congress if you missed either of those.

Bill Ackman ~ Pershing Square Capital

On the topic of JC Penney (JCP)
: Ackman recently started an activist position in JCP and he says this is the most economically sensitive stock that Pershing Square owns. While it is an activist investment, he has not yet spoken to the company's management. However, he believes it is very cheap and a high quality asset. This is mainly due to its real estate assets (arguably better than Macy's ~ M or Sears Holdings ~ SHLD). Ackman also highlights JCP's strong balance sheet as the company is close to being debt neutral. He also says JCP has significant non-operating assets, something that he interestingly enough stumbled upon during his work on the General Growth Properties (GGP) bankruptcy.


On the economy & markets in general: Ackman is pretty bullish on the economy and thinks the stock market is relatively cheap. He believes that the weak dollar is a huge advantage for US companies but the unemployment situation continues to be a problem. Also, he opined that the environment is ripe for corporate acquisitions and thinks this should help boost the value of equities. The one thing he believes is missing is confidence in both business and the consumer.

Interestingly enough, Pershing Square only has 7% short exposure to equities. As we've pointed out in the past, this is most likely due to the fact that Pershing likes to utilize credit default swaps (CDS) for shorting and hedging. In fact, we've detailed how Ackman bought BP credit default swaps.

Pershing Square only has a 7-person investment team and likes to seek companies with high cashflow. Ackman likes to focus on investments in the US as the companies are easier to deal with and he is familiar with the legal system. Via his past experience with Sears Holdings, he says his biggest takeaway was the ability to enact change. Ackman said that (paraphrasing here): 'our competitive advantage is the ability to buy a stake in a company and make something happen.' Undoubtedly he will lean on this mantra with his new activist investment in Fortune Brands (FO).


On the topic of financials: He notes that many banks have aggressively marked down their books and cited Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) as perfect examples. Keep in mind that Ackman bought Citigroup earlier this year.

On the topic of General Growth Properties (GGP): Ackman pointed out that GGP has some prime real estate in Las Vegas via the Summerlin property. GGP's new spin-off, Howard Hughes Co, owns this property and will also own the South Street Seaport (a property Ackman sees value in). Via GGP's emergence from bankruptcy and re-structuring into two separate companies, GGP will retain the high quality cashflow properties while the Howard Hughes spin-off will focus on lesser developed assets.

This concludes notes from Bill Ackman's Q&A session at the Value Investing Congress. For more on Ackman's hedge fund, be sure to check out our profile of Pershing Square.

Stay tuned later this morning as we'll be providing live updates of the second day at the Value Investing Congress so follow @marketfolly on Twitter. Be sure to also check back at MarketFolly.com frequently for full notes.


Thursday, August 23, 2012

Bill Ackman's Pershing Seeks Sale of General Growth Properties (GGP)

Just now, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management filed an amended 13D with the SEC regarding General Growth Properties (GGP).  The main purpose of doing so was to attach a letter to the board of directors that Ackman sent.  In it, he pushes for a sale of the company to either Simon Property Group (SPG), Brookfield, or another party. 

Ackman writes:

"We hereby request that:

- The Board form a special committee of directors wholly unaffiliated with Brookfield to consider the sale of the company to maximize shareholder value.

- The special committee hire independent legal and financial advisors to permit it to manage a process that will maximize shareholder value.

- The special committee permit all interested parties to express their interest in acquiring the company, provide them with access to confidential information to conduct their due diligence, without any standstill restrictions.

- GGP refrain from any future stock repurchases and prohibit Brookfield from participating in or otherwise suspend the dividend reinvestment program to prevent Brookfield from continuing to effectuate a creeping takeover of control without paying a control premium.

- The special committee also consider such other steps that it deems appropriate to level the playing field for potential bidders for the company and to ensure that control is not transferred to Brookfield."


Summary of Ackman's Letter

The letter is quite lengthy and we recommend you read it in full here.  But for summary purposes, here are the Cliff Notes:

- In October of 2011 Simon Property Group (SPG) tried to buy GGP for a 65% premium at the time.

- In November of 2011, Brookfield expressed their interest in acquiring GGP in which they'd sell 68 assets to Simon in order to complete the transaction.  GGP required SPG to enter into a "highly restrictive confidentiality and standstill agreement that, among other limitations, prevents Simon from making offers to acquire GGP or its assets for an extended period of time."

- April/May 2012: Simon rejects the 68 asset purchase & Brookfield seeks to acquire GGP on its own.

- In July 2012, Brookfield said they needed time to raise capital.  After GGP's emergence from bankruptcy, Brookfield has gone from owning 29% to now owning over 38% (or an even higher 42.2% if they exercise their warrants).  Brookfield has raised their stake by purchasing Fairholme Capital's position and receiving shares via GGP's dividend reinvestment program.

- Due to terms of the warrants, Brookfield's stake also effectively increases each time GGP pays a dividend.  Each time that happens, the number of shares underlying the warrants increases and the strike price is reduced.  So Brookfield is slowly acquiring more of the company each time GGP pays a dividend.

- Ackman says it's unfair that Brookfield has had an "unlimited period of time" to consider acquiring GGP while Simon does not have access to inside information and has been cut off from considering a transaction that wouldn't need financing.

- Ackman's not opposed to Brookfield acquiring the company, but he obviously wants a fair process to allow others to bid.

- Ackman points out that if Simon's bid from last year was translated to today's terms, it would "deliver a minimum of $28.01 dollars per share of value, a 51.2% premium to GGP's closing price of $18.52."


In the end, the Pershing founder is just looking for a level playing field to allow Simon and Brookfield (and potentially others) to bid for the company.  So it will be interesting to see how this one plays out.



Don't forget that Ackman will be presenting his latest investment ideas at the Value Investing Congress in New York City in October.  Market Folly readers can receive a discount to the event here with code: N12MF7.


Thursday, July 8, 2010

Hedge Fund Lansdowne Partners Covers Old Mutual Short Position

In the past, we've highlighted hedge fund Lansdowne Partners' short positions. This time around, we get word that they've actually covered one of these stakes. Due to trading activity on the 5th of July, 2010, Lansdowne has reduced their short in Old Mutual plc (LON: OML, pink sheets: ODMTY) to below the regulatory disclosure threshold of -0.25% of shares. Back in November 2009, Lansdowne's short in OML accounted for -0.49% of shares. Then, on July 1st, 2010 Lansdowne reduced it to -0.31% and now it has crossed below the -0.25% threshold.

It is entirely possible that Steven Heinz and Paul Ruddock's hedge fund still maintain a short position. The problem is, we won't know now as it's fallen below disclosure levels. Based on the pattern of their reduction though, it seems clear that they've been aggressive in ratcheting down this stake.

While hedge fund Lansdowne have covered the vast majority (if not all) of this short, they are still short the following companies according to the latest UK disclosures: Legal and General, Prudential plc, and Aviva. You can read up more on Lansdowne's short positions in our recent post.

Taken from Google Finance, Old Mutual plc "operates a financial services business and is engaged in the provision of long-term savings solutions, asset management, short-term insurance and banking solutions to customers worldwide. It also offers financial services in Africa through operations in Namibia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Kenya and Swaziland. Its banking business in Africa is conducted by Nedbank Group, in which it has a 59 % controlling interest. The Company operates thorough a number of subsidiaries, including wholly owned Mutual & Federal Insurance Company Limited, the South African general insurance company, Skandia Life Assurance Company Ltd, which offers life assurance solutions, Skandiabanken AB, engaged in the banking sector, as well as Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss, Inc, an asset management company. Old Mutual plc operates in 34 countries worldwide. "

You can view our coverage of Lansdowne's new longs here as well as our posts on other hedge fund UK positions.


Friday, October 6, 2017

Notes From Great Investors Best Ideas Conference (GIBI) Dallas 2017: Ackman, Einhorn & More

The 11th annual Great Investors Best Ideas (GIBI) Dallas Investment Symposium just took place where managers shared investment ideas to benefit The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research and Vickery Meadow Youth Development Foundation.  Below are some brief notes on the event:


Notes From GIBI Dallas Conference 2017

David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital

Still owns a huge position in General Motors (GM) but has been trimming it since it's grown too large (risk management, position sizing, etc).  Still his largest position by a longshot though.  Still thinks it's very cheap and points to an opportunity for a new shareholder base to get into shares.  Likes they've gotten rid of its riskiest international business and is investing in autonomous cars and electric vehicles: the future.

He also likes Tempur Sealy (TPX).  Thinks estimates are way too low (notes that management's incentives are way higher).  The company had a dispute with Mattress Firm and stopped selling its mattresses there.  Despite that, customers still actively sought out the TempurPedic brand, so the co is replacing its lost Mattress Firm sales elsewhere at higher margins.  Thinks there's also a reasonable chance MF comes back to them since MF has lost sales.

Einhorn said that his 'bubble basket' of shorts in highflying tech stocks like Amazon and Tesla are valued like profits don't matter ... ever.  He says eventually people will wake up and profits will matter and their stocks will crater.  He also pointed to somewhat of a cult following status that is attached to Tesla's stock with all the hype that Elon Musk continuously builds with various projects.  There's around 30 stocks in Einhorn's bubble basket.   He noted he owns a Tesla, but also points out that the company probably lost $20-30k selling it.  Says company hasn't figured out how to make cars profitable on a unit basis.  You can also read Greenlight Capital's Q2 letter here.


Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Capital

Pitched his newest long: Automatic Data Processing (ADP).  Has an activist position.  Thinks it's a quality business: simple, not capital intensive, secular tailwinds (sees lots of growth ahead).  Automating employees.  Ackman thinks the stock's a double.  We've posted Ackman's presentation on ADP previously.

Also mentioned the GSEs he's involved with: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.  Still owns and thinks there's huge upside there.  He originally pitched these plays three years ago at the same conference.  Thinks they will eventually trade multiples higher of where they are now.

He's still short Herbalife (HLF) and has lost millions on the bet as the stocks' up around 40% from his average short price.  Said that of the risk factors considered for the position, Carl Icahn coming in and buying 20+% of the company wasn't one he considered.

Noted he still owns Howard Hughes (HHC) and while he doesn't see any immediate catalysts, thinks it's a long-term play as a high quality business.

Says average investor can be plenty concentrated with 10-15 holdings.  Biggest mistake of his career?  Not selling when new information emerged that didn't jive with his investment thesis.  You can read Pershing Square's Q2 letter here.



Tom Russo. Gardner Russo Gardner

Spoke about global brands and various companies still controlled by the founding families.  His best idea was the company hit with a scandal and PR crisis: Wells Fargo (WFC).  Previously he had noted how his WFC stake has remain unchanged (around 6% of his assets) and that he thought the company simply became too fixated singly on one variable (cross-selling) which lead to a bunch of accounts being opened in customers names.  The company now suffers from poor optics but on a risk level, direct financial harm has been modest and he has faith in the legal process.



Andrew Wellington, Lyrical Asset Management

A couple of picks:  Flex Ltd (FLEX), co is seeing double digit growth in its bottom line and 50% of FCF going to shareholders.  Trading around 12x earnings.

Affiliated Managers Group (AMG): asset management play, owns equity stakes in boutique management firms.  Says they own really good managers.  Trading around 12x NTM earnings.



Van Hoisington, Wasatch-Hoisington US Treasury Fund

He concluded that we're heading to a recession as the Fed has restrictive policies already in effect and money and credit are slowing noticeably.  Structural impediments to growth are over-indebtedness globally as well as adverse demographics.  Thinks rates will stay lower. 



Jeanie Wyatt, South Texas Money Management

A few ideas: Citigroup (C) as a value play.  Thinks it could re-rate from almost 1x book value to closer to 1.4x.  Since the crisis the company has a better situation and less subprime.

KAR Auction Services (KAR):  notes 20% EPS growth, end markets that are accelerating as well.  Trading just over 22x next year's earnings but with a big opportunity ahead as various leases will be coming to term.

Electronic Arts (EA): video game stock that's benefited from going over the top (OTT) as it leads to higher margins than the typical video game distribution model of physical games, etc.  Accelerating sales growth.  Also sees new potential upside in e-sports. 

Vodafone (VOD): Stock has traded sideways but the company has improved in end markets.  Thinks it offers good downside protection as sales growth has accelerated.


For more stock picks from recent investment conferences, we posted up notes from the Sohn San Francisco Conference yesterday.


Monday, May 10, 2010

Ken Griffin's Citadel Discloses Short Position in Legal & General Group

Ken Griffin's investment firm Citadel recently disclosed a new short position via regulatory filings in the UK. Per the disclosure, we see that Citadel Advisors has a short position in Legal & General Group Plc (LON: LGEN) to the tune of -0.4361% of the shares outstanding. This filing was due to activity on May 4th, 2010 and is a brand new short stake. Citadel isn't the only firm with a short position in this company either. Marshal Wace LLP also recently disclosed they are short -0.2% of LGEN shares as of the 4th of May.

Additionally, we recently saw last week that Ken Griffin's firm disclosed a 5.3% stake in Photronics (PLAB) with 2,966,579 shares. This is a massive increase in their position as they only owned a few thousand shares back on December 31st, 2009, the last time we saw a disclosure relating to this position. It's been a while since we last covered activity from Ken Griffin's firm, but last month we detailed Citadel's increased stake in Leap Wireless (LEAP) as well.

We've been detailing short disclosures from various hedge funds and prominent investors as of late and noted that Jim Rogers is short various indexes, London based Lansdowne Partners has been increasing their short in Prudential, and Whitney Tilson's T2 Partners has been short Lululemon Athletica. While short positions are typically kept closely guarded to the vest, it's a refreshing change for us to be able to present you these various disclosures.

Taken from Google Finance - "Legal & General Group Plc is a provider of risk, savings and investment management products in the United Kingdom. It operates in four segments: Risk, Savings, Investment management and International."

To learn more about Ken Griffin, we recommend checking out Scott Patterson's new book The Quants as Citadel's founder is featured in it.


Friday, January 22, 2010

Hedge Fund QVT Financial: UK Activist Portfolio

QVT was founded in 2004 by former Deutsche Bank proprietary trader, Dan Gold. QVT's approach in the UK market is to seek out activist positions in small-cap companies, particularly in the investment management sector. They appear to look for out of favor and often illiquid stocks, many of whom trade on London's less regulated AIM market. Several of their positions are in investment trust companies. See our earlier article on UK investment trusts and the potential for hedge fund activism as well as our primer on tracking a hedge fund's UK positions.

QVT have 26 holdings in UK listed companies worth approx £190,300,000. Over 90% of their holdings by market value are in investment managers of one type or another. Real estate investment managers and equity investment managers account for 40% each with non-equity investments like funds of hedge funds and alternative energy accounting for 10%.

We were surprised to discover that QVT had such high exposure to property companies (40% of their current UK portfolio). London's AIM market was the favored place to raise money for property companies from all around the world during the property boom. In this period, one hundred and sixty property companies were listed on AIM to invest in real estate in over forty different countries. Of course today the market valuations of these companies are generally only a fraction of what they were at flotation, let alone at the top of the market in 2008. All the property companies in QVT's portfolio invest outside of the UK. At first sight, this may appear to indicate that QVT are nervous about the UK property market or at least that they perceive better value elsewhere, however, it may just reflect the fact that most of the property companies that listed on AIM are focused on overseas property.

It's probably safe to assume that most of QVT's UK positions are activist to one degree or another. Information about QVT's motives and strategy towards companies is patchy but some is available via the London Stock Exchange Regulatory News Service and the financial press. Trikona Trinity Capital, an Indian property company, is one of QVT's largest positions. QVT wants Trikona to sell all its investments and return the money to shareholders. A fairly straight-forward request, but one that is potentially the kiss of death for Trikona. Trikona have responded by arguing that they would likely face legal action from their partners and the Indian government if they were to sell assets on a large scale. However, they have indicated that they will return some assets to shareholders over the next two years.

Treveria, the German real estate company, is one of QVT's newest holdings. In November, QVT called an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) of shareholders in an attempt to remove four directors, including the Chairman and appoint one of its own representatives. Treveria responded by pre-empting the EGM by naming Yossi Raucher as non-executive chairman replacing Christopher Lovell, the interim chairman, who remains a director. Treveria has also appointed Jeffrey Strong, a senior investment professional at QVT Financial, as a non-executive director. Following the appointments, QVT and Treveria have agreed to cancel the EGM.

QVT own 20% of South African Property Opportunities (AIM: SAPO), an AIM listed property investment company. Here QVT are in partnership with another activist Principle Capital which is run by Brian Myerson. Principle Capital is also the investment manager of SAPO via a company called Proteus Property Partners. With the support of QVT, Principle has threatened legal action unless SAPO pays out a disputed performance fee to Proteus. So far, SAPO have refused to pay. It will be interesting to see what happens as Proteus is set to have its management contract terminated in October 2010 in the wake of strategic review to help address a wide discount to net asset value.

Finally, readers may find it useful to know that some of the holdings in QVT's portfolio are also held by other hedge funds. Seth Klarman's Baupost Group and London based multi-strategy hedge fund GLG have a stake in ACP Capital (APL). Weiss Capital Management, an activist fund, has positions in CAD, CEB, and DIVA. Trafalgar, the London based long/short fund also has a position in CEB. Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine has a large 39% stake in Ishaan (ISH), the Indian property development company. See our latest article on Lone Pine's UK holdings here.

Below you'll find summaries of QVT's various positions in UK markets:

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)



That sums up QVT's positions and just yesterday we also covered Louis Bacon & Moore Capital's updated UK positions. Head to our coverage on other hedge fund UK positions as well.


Thursday, October 17, 2019

Next Wave Sohn San Francisco Notes 2019: Perkins, Sinantha, Venkatesan, Weldon

We're posting up notes from the Sohn San Francisco Investment Conference which featured hedge fund managers sharing their latest investment ideas to benefit charity.  The Next Wave segment featured emerging managers Stephen Perkins (Toronado Capital), Touk Sinantha (AltraVue Capital), Raj Venkatesan (Trinity Alps Capital), and Christopher Weldon (Stamina Capital).

We've also posted up notes from the main event of Sohn San Francisco so be sure to check that out as well.


Notes from Next Wave Sohn San Francisco 2019


Stephen Perkins, Toronado Capital Management

Idea: Blackline (BL)

•    Software business models are great but software is not undiscovered anymore
•    Blackline (BL) – software company modernizing finance and accounting processes for mid-size enterprises
•    Replaces excel with a vast process improvement
•    Strong user growth – 19% CAGR in users from 2015- Q2 2019
•    SAP relationship will help drive future growth
•    Market is large and underpenetrated and little competition
•    Strong renewal rates at 97-98% dollar retention over last 5 years
•    Founder led with the founder owning ~10% of the company
•    Competition is really thin
•    Focus on this one part of the enterprise is a competitive advantage


Touk Sinantha, AltraVue Capital – value investing firm

Idea: SIGA Technologies (SIGA)– Specialty Pharma

•    Post bankruptcy microcap
•    Focused on biodefense and only company with vaccine for Small Pox
•    US and Russia continue to keep stock of the virus and possible to recreate the virus synthetically
•    Siga was a good business that went bankrupt because of legal fight over acquisition by another company
•    Continue to provide Small Pox vaccine to national stockpile
•    Stock became orphaned for a number of reasons
•    $600mm BARDA contract
•    Core value estimated at $7 per share or ~30% upside
•    Optionality:
o    International sales: ~$4 per share
o    TPOXX Label expansion: $2 value
o    New products: $0 value
•    Sum of the core value and potential upside value = $7+$4+$2= $13 per share
•    Risks: BARDA funding risk, Capital allocation risk, new competition, liability risk


Raj Venkatesan, Trinity Alps Capital Partners (long only, global and sector agnostic)

Idea: Afya (Brazil – but trades as an ADR)

•    Focused on medical education
•    Good reform happening in Brazil that are tailwinds to the business
•    Population in Brazil is aging and healthcare spend is growing at low double digits
•    Low number of doctors on a per capital basis and applicants/openings for med schools have declined
•    70% of medical education in Brazil is private
•    Path to become a doctor and specialist is long (like the US)
•    Earnings power of a specialist doctor is very high
•    Payback for general physician education is 5 years
•    Pure play way to play medicine in Brazil
•    Multiple growth levers:
o    TAM doubles in 5 years to R$32B
o    Roll up strategy
o    Regulated brownfield and greenfield growth opps
o    Asset light monetization of content  - vertical and horizontal
•    Value: Think Afya is a double
•    Risks: Macro/currency, regulatory framework, Recent IPO/limited history


Christopher Weldon, Stamina Capital ($200mm AUM, 3 years in)

Idea: Adyen long (3 year double)

•    Payment processor/merchant acquirer based out of the Netherlands
•    Visa is a good case study for Adyen – great operating leverage as revenue and costs are completely unrelated
•    Lowest cost operator
•    Value: believe it can double in 3 years driven by ~35% revenue, >50% FCF CAGR
•    Displacing legacy merchant acquirers given cost advantage: First Data and WorldPays of the world
•    Growth levers:
o    Customers growing quickly
o    Wallet share gains
o    New customers
o    New services
•    Digital payments are a secular share gainer in global transactions
•    Very large TAM of $25 trillion card based payments
•    Base case: +80% upside; Reward Case: +250%; Risk case: -25%


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